The historical association between measles and pertussis: A case of immune suppression?

Quantifying the consequences of measles-induced immune modulation for whooping cough epidemiology

Measles, an acute viral disease, continues to be an important cause of childhood mortality worldwide. Infection with the measles virus is thought to be associated with a transient but profound period of immune suppression. Recently, it has been claimed that measles-induced immune manipulation lasts for about 30 months and results in increased susceptibility to other co-circulating infectious diseases and more severe disease outcomes upon infection. We tested this hypothesis using model-based inference applied to parallel historical records of measles and whooping cough mortality and morbidity. Specifically, we used maximum likelihood to fit a mechanistic transmission model to incidence data from three different eras, spanning mortality records from 1904 to 1912 and 1922 to 1932 and morbidity records from 1946 to 1956. Our aim was to quantify the timing, severity and pathogenesis impacts of measles-induced immune modulation and their consequences for whooping cough epidemiology across a temporal gradient of measles transmission. We identified an increase in susceptibility to whooping cough following recent measles infection by approximately 85-, 10- and 36-fold for the three eras, respectively, although the duration of this effect was variable. Overall, while the immune impacts of measles may be strong and clearly evident at the individual level, their epidemiological signature in these data appears both modest and inconsistent. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'.

The association between tuberculosis and diphtheria

This research investigates the long-forgotten relationship between diphtheria and tuberculosis. Historical medical reports from the late 19th century are reviewed followed by a statistical regression analysis of the relationship between the two diseases in the early 20th century. Historical medical reports show a consistent association between diphtheria and tuberculosis that can increase the likelihood and severity of either disease in a co-infection. The statistical analysis uses historical weekly public health data on reported cases in five American cities over a period of several years, finding a modest but statistically significant relationship between the two diseases. No current medical theory explains the association between diphtheria and tuberculosis. Alternative explanations are explored with a focus on how the diseases assimilate iron. In a co-infection, the effectiveness of tuberculosis at assimilating extracellular iron may lead to increased production of diphtheria toxin, worsening that disease, which may, in turn, exacerbate tuberculosis. Iron-dependent repressor genes connect both diseases.

The association between varicella (chickenpox) and group A streptococcus infections in historical perspective

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the research is to investigate the historical relationship between varicella and Streptococcus pyogenes infections. In the past few decades, varicella has been identified as a risk factor for invasive group A streptococcus infections. The question is whether this relationship also existed between varicella and scarlet fever in the historical era.

METHODS

The analysis begins with a search of historical medical reports on the relationship between varicella and scarlet fever epidemics in the late 19th and early 20th century, as well as in more recent empirical studies. Correlations and cross-correlations between varicella and scarlet fever are analyzed using weekly public health case reports from 1924 to 1932 for Boston, Chicago, New York City, and Philadelphia. Regression models are used to estimate the relationship between varicella and scarlet fever after controlling for seasonal forcing.

RESULTS

Historical records give limited support for a causal relationship between varicella and scarlet fever but indicate that these diseases often occurred close in time to each other. Likewise, statistical analysis shows that varicella and scarlet fever epidemics are closely aligned with each other, and varicella has a strong relationship with scarlet fever. The relationship is stronger than reported in any previous research on the two diseases.

CONCLUSION

The close correspondence of the two diseases likely depends on multiple factors, including seasonal forcing, a causal relationship, and co-infections. The results raise questions about whether this close relationship might have had a synergistic effect or a role in the evolution of S. pyogenes from the virulent, high incidence epidemics of the 19th century to the relatively benign scarlet fever of the 1950s.