Rapid prediction of adverse outcomes for acute normotensive pulmonary embolism: derivation of the Calgary Acute Pulmonary Embolism score

JTH in Clinic: management of low-risk pulmonary embolism

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a common cardiovascular disease diagnosis in emergency departments that can be associated with significant morbidity and mortality. One of the first steps after diagnosing PE is to risk stratify for adverse outcomes using risk scores such as PE Severity Index and European Society of Cardiology risk scheme. While intermediate- and high-risk PE patients should be admitted to the hospital, there is increasing evidence to support early discharge and home-based anticoagulation therapy for low-risk patients. The Hestia criteria encompass many of the clinicians' considerations for who may be suitable for early discharge, considering both medical and social factors. Additionally, professional guidelines have provided algorithms on determining which low-risk patients may be suitable. Despite this, low-risk acute PE patients are still often admitted for inpatient treatment. In this review, we present a case-based approach on how to risk stratify and evaluate patients who may be good candidates for early discharge and home therapy.

Imaging-based risk stratification of patients with pulmonary embolism based on dual-energy CT-derived radiomics

BACKGROUND

Technological progress in the acquisition of medical images and the extraction of underlying quantitative imaging data has introduced exciting prospects for the diagnostic assessment of a wide range of conditions. This study aims to investigate the diagnostic utility of a machine learning classifier based on dual-energy computed tomography (DECT) radiomics for classifying pulmonary embolism (PE) severity and assessing the risk for early death.

METHODS

Patients who underwent CT pulmonary angiogram (CTPA) between January 2015 and March 2022 were considered for inclusion in this study. Based on DECT imaging, 107 radiomic features were extracted for each patient using standardized image processing. After dividing the dataset into training and test sets, stepwise feature reduction based on reproducibility, variable importance and correlation analyses were performed to select the most relevant features; these were used to train and validate the gradient-boosted tree models.

RESULTS

The trained machine learning classifier achieved a classification accuracy of .90 for identifying high-risk PE patients with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .59. This CT-based radiomics signature showed good diagnostic accuracy for risk stratification in individuals presenting with central PE, particularly within higher risk groups.

CONCLUSION

Models utilizing DECT-derived radiomics features can accurately stratify patients with pulmonary embolism into established clinical risk scores. This approach holds the potential to enhance patient management and optimize patient flow by assisting in the clinical decision-making process. It also offers the advantage of saving time and resources by leveraging existing imaging to eliminate the necessity for manual clinical scoring.

Addressing the rising trend of high-risk pulmonary embolism mortality: Clinical and research priorities

BACKGROUND

Deaths from high-risk pulmonary embolism (PE) appear to have increased in the US over the last decade. Modifiable risks contributing to this worrisome trend present opportunities for physicians, researchers, and healthcare policymakers to improve care.

METHODS

We sought to contextualize contemporary, high-risk PE epidemiology and examine clinical trials, quality improvement opportunities, and healthcare policy initiatives directed at reducing mortality.

RESULTS

We observed significant and modifiable excess mortality due to high-risk PE. We identified several opportunities to improve care including: (1) rapid translation of forthcoming data on reperfusion strategies into clinical practice; (2) improved risk stratification tools; (3) quality improvement initiatives to address presumptive anticoagulation practice gaps; and (3) adoption of health policy initiatives to establish pulmonary embolism response teams and address the social determinants of health.

CONCLUSION

Addressing knowledge and practice gaps in intermediate and high-risk PE management must be prioritized and informed by forthcoming high-quality data. Implementation efforts are needed to improve acute PE management and resolve treatment disparities.

Shock score for prediction of clinical outcomes among stable patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism

BACKGROUND

The Composite Pulmonary Embolism Shock (CPES) score has been developed to identify normotensive patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) and a low cardiac index (referred to as normotensive shock). We aimed to externally assess the validity of this model for predicting a complicated course among hemodynamically stable patients with acute PE.

METHODS

Using prospectively collected data from the PROgnosTic valuE of Computed Tomography scan (PROTECT) study, we calculated the CPES score for each patient and the proportion of patients with a score > 3. We calculated the test performance characteristics to predict a complicated course (i.e., death from any cause, hemodynamic collapse, or recurrent PE) and the discriminatory power using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS

Sixty-three of the 848 (7.4 %) patients had a complicated course during the 30-day follow-up period. Of the 848 enrolled patients, the CPES score was positive (i.e., score > 3) in 78 (9.2 %). The specificity was 92.1 % (723/785), the positive predictive value was 20.5 % (16/78), and the positive likelihood ratio was 3.22 for a complicated course. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for a complicated course were 0.71 (95 % confidence interval [CI], 0.65-0.78). With the higher score risk classification threshold (cutoff score > 4), the proportion of patients designated as positive was 2.1 %, and the specificity was 98.1 %. When echocardiographic right ventricle (RV) dysfunction was replaced by computed tomographic RV enlargement, the specificity was 85.4 %, the positive predictive value was 14.2 %, and the positive likelihood ratio was 2.06 for a complicated course. When analyses were restricted to the subgroup of patients with intermediate-risk PE, the specificity and the positive predictive value for a complicated course were identical to the overall cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The CPES score has acceptable C-statistic, excellent specificity, and low positive predictive value for identification of hemodynamic deterioration in normotensive patients with PE.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov number: NCT02238639.

Pulmonary embolism: a practical approach to update risk stratification and treatment decisions based on the guidelines

INTRODUCTION

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a prevalent condition with a substantial morbi-mortality worldwide. Proper risk stratification of PE is essential for identifying the most suitable therapeutic strategy and the optimal care setting for the patient. This process entails evaluating various factors, including symptoms, comorbidities, and right heart dysfunction.

AREAS COVERED

This review assesses the tools and methods utilized to identify and stratify individuals based on the probability of developing deterioration or death related to PE. Current guidelines divide PE into three groups: high-risk (previously termed massive) PE, intermediate-risk (sub-massive) PE, and low-risk PE. Various risk scores, such as the simplified pulmonary embolism severity index (sPESI), Bova score, and the FAST score (incorporating Heart-Fatty Acid binding protein [H-ABP], Syncope, Tachycardia), aid in identifying patients at higher risk. Additionally, the Hestia score is instrumental in pinpointing low-risk patients.

EXPERT OPINION

Presently, there is a dearth of high-quality frameworks for the optimal management and treatment of PE patients at risk of hemodynamic collapse. A consortium of experts is in the process of formulating a new conceptual model for risk stratification, taking into account a comprehensive array of variables and outcomes to facilitate more individualized management of acute PE.

Risk stratification of acute pulmonary embolism

Approximately 5% of pulmonary embolism (PE) cases present with persistent hypotension, obstructive shock, or cardiac arrest. Given the high short-term mortality, management of high-risk PE cases focuses on immediate reperfusion therapies. Risk stratification of normotensive PE is important to identify patients with an elevated risk of hemodynamic collapse or an elevated risk of major bleeding. Risk stratification for short-term hemodynamic collapse includes assessment of physiological parameters, right heart dysfunction, and identification of comorbidities. Validated tools such as European Society of Cardiology guidelines and Bova score can identify normotensive patients with PE and an elevated risk of subsequent hemodynamic collapse. At present, we lack high-quality evidence to recommend one treatment over another (systemic thrombolysis, catheter-directed therapy, or anticoagulation with close monitoring) for patients at elevated risk of hemodynamic collapse. Newer, less well-validated scores such as BACS and PE-CH may help identify patients at a high risk of major bleeding following systemic thrombolysis. The PE-SARD score may identify those at risk of major anticoagulant-associated bleeding. Patients at low risk of short-term adverse outcomes can be considered for outpatient management. The simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index score or Hestia criteria are safe decision aids when combined with physician global assessment of the need for hospitalization following the diagnosis of PE.

Validation of clinical-radiological scores for prognosis of mortality in acute pulmonary embolism

INTRODUCTION

Acute pulmonary embolism (APE) is a hazardous disorder with a high mortality. Combination of clinical, radiological, and serological parameters can improve risk stratification of APE. Most of the proposed combined scores were not validated in independent cohorts. Our aim was to validate the proposed clinical-radiological scores for prognosis of 7- and 30-day mortality in APE.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Our sample comprised 531 patients with APE, mean age 64.8 ± 15.6 years, 221 (41.6%) females and 310 (58.4%) males. The following parameters were collected: Age and sex of the patients, mortality within the observation time of 30 days, simplified pulmonary embolism severity index (sPESI), pH troponin level (pg/ml), minimal systolic and diastolic blood pressures (mmHg), heart rate, O2 saturation, episodes of syncope, and need for vasopressors. On CT pulmonary angiography (CTPA), short axis ratio right ventricle/left ventricle (RV/LV), and reflux of contrast medium into the inferior vena cava were obtained. The following clinical-radiological scores were calculated: BOVA score, pulmonary embolism mortality score (PEMS), European Society of Cardiology (ESC) score, Kumamaru score, and Calgary acute pulmonary embolism (CAPE) score.

RESULTS

Overall, 31 patients (5.8%) died within seven and 64 patients (12%) within 30 days. All scores showed high negative prognostic values ranging from 89.0 to 99.0%. PEMS and CAPE score demonstrated the highest specificity for 7-day mortality (93.4% and 85.0%), PEMS and BOVA for 30-day mortality (94.2% and 90.4%). The highest sensitivity was observed for ESC 2019 (96.8% and 95.3%). Kumamaru and CAPE scores had low sensitivity. All scores had low positive and high negative predictive values.

CONCLUSION

For prognosis of 7- and 30-day mortality in APE, PEMS score has the highest specificity. ESC 2019 shows the highest sensitivity. All scores had low positive and high negative predictive values.

Prognostic value of echocardiography-derived right ventricular dysfunction in haemodynamically stable pulmonary embolism: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

We sought to determine the prognostic value of transthoracic echocardiography (TTE)-derived right ventricular dysfunction (RVD) in haemodynamically stable and intermediate-risk patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE), evaluate continuous RVD parameters, and assess the literature quality.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials for studies assessing TTE-derived RVD in haemodynamically stable PE that reported in-hospital adverse events within 30 days. We determined pooled odds ratios (ORs) using a random-effects model, created funnel plots, evaluated the Newcastle-Ottawa scale and performed Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation.

RESULTS

Based on 55 studies (17 090 patients, 37.8% RVD), RVD was associated with combined adverse events (AEs) (OR 3.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.59-4.18), mortality (OR 2.00, CI 1.66-2.40) and PE-related mortality (OR 4.01, CI 2.79-5.78). In intermediate-risk patients, RVD was associated with AEs (OR 1.99, CI 1.17-3.37) and PE-related mortality (OR 6.16, CI 1.33-28.40), but not mortality (OR 1.63, CI 0.76-3.48). Continuous RVD parameters provide a greater spectrum of risk compared to categorical RVD. We identified publication bias, poor methodological quality in 34/55 studies and overall low certainty of evidence.

CONCLUSIONS

RVD is frequent in PE and associated with adverse outcomes. However, data quality and publication bias are limitations of existing evidence.