Patterns of lung cancer mortality in 23 countries: application of the age-period-cohort model

An age-period-cohort analysis of mortality rates for stomach, colorectal, liver, and lung cancer among prefectures in Japan, 1999-2018

BACKGROUND

Although change in the birth cohort effect on cancer mortality rates is known to be highly associated with the decreasing rates of age-standardized cancer mortality rates in Japan, the differences in the trends of cohort effect for representative cancer types among the prefectures remain unknown. This study aimed to investigate the differences in the decreasing rate of cohort effects among the prefectures for representative cancer types using age-period-cohort (APC) analysis.

METHODS

Data on stomach, colorectal, liver, and lung cancer mortality for each prefecture and the population data from 1999 to 2018 were obtained from the Vital Statistics in Japan. Mortality data for individuals aged 50 to 79 years grouped in 5-year increments were used, and corresponding birth cohorts born 1920-1924 through 1964-1978 were used for analysis. We estimated the effects of age, period, and cohort on each type of mortality rate for each prefecture by sex. Then, we calculated the decreasing rates of cohort effects for each prefecture. We also calculated the mortality rate ratio of each prefecture compared with all of Japan for cohorts using the estimates.

RESULTS

As a result of APC analysis, we found that the decreasing rates of period effects were small and that there was a little difference in the decreasing rates among prefectures for all types of cancer among both sexes. On the other hand, there was a large difference in the decreasing rates of cohort effects for stomach and liver cancer mortality rates among prefectures, particularly for men. For men, the decreasing rates of cohort effects in cohorts born between 1920-1924 and 1964-1978 varied among prefectures, ranging from 4.1 to 84.0% for stomach cancer and from 20.2 to 92.4% for liver cancers, respectively. On the other hand, the differences in the decreasing rates of cohort effects among prefectures for colorectal and lung cancer were relatively smaller.

CONCLUSIONS

The decreasing rates of cohort effects for stomach and liver cancer varied widely among prefectures. It is possible that this will influence cancer mortality rates in each prefecture in the future.

Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of the Sex Differences in Cancer Mortality Rates in Japan from 1995 to 2015

BACKGROUND

The current study aimed to analyze the sex differences in cancer mortality rates in Japan via an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis.

METHODS

We used data about cancer mortality rates from 1995 to 2015 in Japan based on the Vital Statistics survey. In addition to the data about mortality from all sites of cancer, we specifically used data about stomach, lung, colorectal, and liver cancers. A Bayesian APC analysis was performed to identify changes in mortality rates based on three effects, which were as follows: age, period, and cohort. Then, we finally calculated the mortality rate ratios for each effect between men and women.

RESULTS

The sex differences in age-adjusted mortality rates for all-sites cancer, lung cancer, and liver cancer were decreasing from 1995 to 2015, and the mortality rate ratios in terms of sex decreased from 2.17 in 1995 to 1.93 in 2015. Based on the results of the APC analyses, only minimal changes were observed in the mortality rate ratios for all types of cancer between men and women during the analyzed periods. The cohort effects began to decrease from the early 20th century in all types of cancer in both men and women, and the mortality rate ratios for all types of cancer between men and women began to increase in the cohorts born from 1926 to 1935. For all-sites cancer, the ratio increased from 0.49 (0.44, 0.57) in the cohort born from 1926 to 1930 to 0.81 (0.60, 1.03) in the cohort born from 1971 to 1975.

CONCLUSION

The sex differences in cancer mortality rates were decreasing in the more recent born generations in Japan. If this trend continues, there will be a minimal difference in the morality rates in the following generations.<br />.

Improving the Validity of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Alcohol Measures

BACKGROUND

Valid measurement of alcohol use can be difficult in surveys, which are subject to biases like underreporting and differential nonresponse. Still, monitoring trends, policy impacts, disparities, and related issues all require valid individual- and state-level drinking data collected over time. Here, we propose a double-adjustment approach for improving the validity of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) alcohol measures.

METHODS

Validity analyses of the 1999 to 2016 BRFSS, a general population survey of U.S. adults. Measures are aggregated to state level for N = 918 observations, single-adjusted for BRFSS methodologic changes, and double-adjusted by per capita consumption. Fixed-effects models: (i) assess predictive validity using adjusted BRFSS drink volume to predict mortality outcomes and (ii) assess outcome validity using state-level alcohol taxes to predict adjusted BRFSS volume.

RESULTS

Neither the raw nor the single-adjusted BRFSS drinking measures were related to mortality in the expected direction, while double-adjusted BRFSS volume and 5+ days were significantly positively related to mortality, as expected. Spirits and beer taxes were not related to single-adjusted BRFSS drinking in the expected direction. However, spirits and beer taxes were both significantly related to double-adjusted BRFSS volume in the expected directions.

CONCLUSIONS

Future studies should consider using the double-adjusted BRFSS measures to ensure the validity of drinking survey data in analyses where variation over time is considered.

A review on the effects of current chemotherapy drugs and natural agents in treating non-small cell lung cancer

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide, and this makes it an attractive disease to review and possibly improve therapeutic treatment options. Surgery, radiation, chemotherapy, targeted treatments, and immunotherapy separate or in combination are commonly used to treat lung cancer. However, these treatment types may cause different side effects, and chemotherapy-based regimens appear to have reached a therapeutic plateau. Hence, effective, better-tolerated treatments are needed to address and hopefully overcome this conundrum. Recent advances have enabled biologists to better investigate the potential use of natural compounds for the treatment or control of various cancerous diseases. For the past 30 years, natural compounds have been the pillar of chemotherapy. However, only a few compounds have been tested in cancerous patients and only partial evidence is available regarding their clinical effectiveness. Herein, we review the research on using current chemotherapy drugs and natural compounds (Wortmannin and Roscovitine, Cordyceps militaris, Resveratrol, OSU03013, Myricetin, Berberine, Antroquinonol) and the beneficial effects they have on various types of cancers including non-small cell lung cancer. Based on this literature review, we propose the use of these compounds along with chemotherapy drugs in patients with advanced and/or refractory solid tumours.

Lung Cancer Mortality Trends in China from 1988 to 2013: New Challenges and Opportunities for the Government

Background: As lung cancer has shown a continuously increasing trend in many countries, it is essential to stay abreast of lung cancer mortality information and take informed actions with a theoretical basis derived from appropriate and practical statistical methods. Methods: Age-specific rates were collected by gender and region (urban/rural) and analysed with descriptive methods and age-period-cohort models to estimate the trends in lung cancer mortality in China from 1988 to 2013. Results: Descriptive analysis revealed that the age-specific mortality rates of lung cancer in rural residents increased markedly over the last three decades, and there was no obvious increase in urban residents. APC analysis showed that the lung cancer mortality rates significantly increased with age (20–84), rose slightly with the time period, and decreased with the cohort, except for the rural cohorts born during the early years (1909–1928). The trends in the patterns of the period and cohort effects showed marked disparities between the urban and rural residents. Conclusions: Lung cancer mortality remains serious and is likely to continue to rise in China. Some known measures are suggested to be decisive factors in mitigating lung cancer, such as environmental conservation, medical security, and tobacco control, which should be implemented more vigorously over the long term in China, especially in rural areas.

Age-period-cohort analysis of suicide mortality by gender among white and black Americans, 1983-2012

Background

Previous studies suggested that the racial differences in U.S. suicide rates are decreasing, particularly for African Americans, but the cause behind the temporal variations has yet to be determined. This study aims to investigate the long-term trends in suicide mortality in the U.S. between 1983 and 2012 and to examine age-, period-, and cohort-specific effects by gender and race.

Method

Suicide mortality data were collected from the Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS) and analyzed with the Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort (APC) analysis.

Results

We found that although age-standardized rate of suicide in white males, white females, black males, and black females all changed at different degrees, the overall situation almost has not changed since these changes offset each other. By APC analysis, while the age effect on suicide demonstrate an obvious difference between white males and females (with the peak at 75 to 79 for white males and 45 to 54 for white females), young black people are predominantly susceptible to suicide (risk peaks in early 20s for black males and late 20s for black females). Cohort effects all showed a descending trend, except that in white males and females which showed an obvious increase peaked in around cohort 1960. There was a similar period effect trend between different genders in the same race group, but between the races, differences were found in the period before 1990 and after 2000.

Conclusion

We confirmed that the distinction in age-specific suicide rate patterns does exist by gender and by race after controlling for period and cohort effects, which suggested that minorities’ age patterns of suicide may have been masked up by the white people in the whole population. The differences of period effects and cohort effects between white and black Americans were likely to be mainly explained by the difference in race susceptibility to economic depression.

Cardiovascular mortality sex differentials in selected East Asian and Western populations

BACKGROUND

Explaining patterns in the sex ratio (male/female) of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality would improve understanding of mortality transitions under modernisation. Little research has examined secular trends in this ratio across populations, taking age and cohort into account. We examine cohort effects in the ratios of CVD mortality (including ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease) among 4 East Asian populations that vary in the timing of their modernisation, and assess the effect of smoking on these patterns in comparison with Western populations.

METHODS

The sequential method for log-linear models is applied to analyse age, period and cohort effects for sex ratios. Age and cohort effects are fitted first, with population as offset; period effects are fitted in a second model using the fitted values from the first model as the offset. Lung cancer mortality serves as a proxy for smoking.

RESULTS

Increases in sex ratios of CVD mortality began in earlier cohorts in Western than in East Asian populations. Once begun, increases were more rapid in East Asia. The cohort effect for the sex ratio of CVD mortality differs from that for lung cancer mortality. Trends in sex ratios of CVD mortality by cohort are similar before and after adjustment for lung cancer mortality in East Asia; the increasing trend across 1900-1945 cohorts is maintained in Western populations after adjustment.

CONCLUSIONS

The sex ratio of CVD mortality has increased across successive cohorts living in increasingly modernised environments. There is scant evidence that this increase is attributable to changing sex-specific rates of smoking.

Assessment of Selection Criteria for Low-Dose Lung Screening CT Among Asian Ethnic Groups in Taiwan: From Mass Screening to Specific Risk-Based Screening for Non-Smoker Lung Cancer

BACKGROUND

The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) showed low-dose screening chest computed tomography (CT) reduced the lung cancer mortality rate up to 20% in high-risk patients in the United States. We aimed to investigate the impact of applying the NLST eligibility criteria to the population in Taiwan, and to identify additional risk factors to select subjects at risk for lung cancer.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 1763 asymptomatic healthy subjects (age range, 40-80 years) who voluntarily underwent low-dose chest CT (1029 male, 734 female) from August 2013 to August 2014. Clinical information and nodule characteristics were recorded. The results of subsequent follow-up and outcome were also recorded.

RESULTS

A total of 8.4% (148/1763) of subjects would have been eligible for lung cancer screening based on the NLST criteria. However, only 1 of these eligible subjects would have a lung cancer detected at baseline. Among the 1615 subjects who did not meet the NLST criteria, the detection rates of lung cancer were 2.6% in women and 0.56% in men. Logistic regression showed that female gender and a family history of lung cancer were the 2 most important predictors of lung cancer in Taiwan (odds ratio, 6.367; P = .003; odds ratio, 3.017; P = .016, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, NLST eligibility criteria may not be effective in screening for lung cancer in Taiwan. A risk-based prediction model based on the family history of lung cancer and female gender can potentially improve the efficiency of lung cancer screening programs in Taiwan.

Secular Trends of Breast Cancer in China, South Korea, Japan and the United States: Application of the Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

To describe the temporal trends of breast cancer mortality in East Asia and to better understand the causes of these trends, we analyzed the independent effects of chronological age, time period and birth cohort on breast cancer mortality trends using age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. We chose three main countries in East Asia, namely China, South Korea, and Japan, which have reported death status to the WHO Mortality Database, and used the United States as a comparison population. Our study shows that in general, breast cancer mortality rates in females increased in all three East Asian countries throughout the study period. By APC analysis, we confirmed that there is, in fact, a difference in age-specific mortality rate patterns between the Eastern and the Western countries, which is presumably caused by the two-disease model. While the cause of the decrease from approximately the 1950s generation is still in question, we believe that increasing general awareness and improvements in the health-care system have made a significant contribution to it. Although the age and cohort effects are relatively strong, the period effect may be a more critical factor in the mortality trend, mainly reflecting the increase in exposures to carcinogens and behavioral risk factors.

Female breast cancer mortality in Brazil and its regions

Objective: to analyze female breast cancer mortality trends in Brazil and its regions. Methods: female breast cancer mortality in Brazil and its regions was analyzed using mortality data from the Ministry of Health's Mortality Information System and the National Cancer Institute between 1991 and 2010. The variables analyzed were. proportional mortality from female breast cancer in relation to total deaths in women, mortality rates of the five primary locations of the neoplasms most common in women, and mortality rates for female breast cancer: Linear regression models were estimated to analyze mortality trends: Results: a growth in proportional mortality due to female breast cancer in Brazil and its regions was observed: In relation to the mortality rates for the five primary types of cancer, breast cancer persisted in first place in Brazil and its regions, except the North region, where cervical cancer was the most frequent: Rising female breast cancer mortality rates were observed for Brazil (p = 0.017), Northeastern (p < 0.001), North (p < 0.001) and the Mid-West (p = 0.001), regions, and declining rates for the Southeast region (p = 0.047), and stable rates for the South region. Conclusion: the results emphasize the importance of the disease in terms of public health in the country, reinforcing the need for early detection and appropriate treatment.

Year of birth effects in the historical decline of tuberculosis mortality: a reconsideration

Birth cohort patterns in mortality are often used to infer long-lasting impacts of early life conditions. One of the most widely accepted examples of a birth cohort effect is that of tuberculosis mortality before the late 1940s. However the evidential basis for claims of cohort-specific declines in tuberculosis mortality is very slight. Reanalysis of original or enhanced versions of datasets used previously to support claims of cohort effects in tuberculosis mortality indicated that: 1. where the initial decline in tuberculosis mortality occurred within the period of observation, onset of decline occurred simultaneously in many age groups, in a pattern indicative of 'period' not cohort-dependent effects. 2. there was little evidence of 'proportional hazard'-type cohort patterns in tuberculosis mortality for any female population studied. Therefore any mechanisms proposed to underlie this type of cohort pattern in male mortality must be sex-specific. 3. sex ratios of tuberculosis mortality at older ages peaked in cohorts born around 1900, and resembled cohort sex ratios of lung cancer mortality. This analysis indicates that age-specific patterns in the decline in tuberculosis mortality before 1950 are unlikely to reflect improvements in early life conditions. The patterns observed are generally more consistent with the influence of factors that reduced mortality simultaneously in most age groups. Additional influences, possibly smoking habits, impeded the decline of tuberculosis in older adult males, and produced the sex-specific shifts in age distributions of mortality that were previously interpreted as evidence of cohort-dependent mortality decline.

Aryl hydrocarbon receptor in association with RelA modulates IL-6 expression in non-smoking lung cancer

Aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) is a ligand-activated transcription factor that is activated by cigarette smoke. Previously, we demonstrated that AhR is overexpressed in lung adenocarcinomas (ADs). In this study we observed that AhR expression is significantly correlated with nuclear RelA (a nuclear factor-κB (NFκB) subunit) and cytosolic interleukin-6 (IL-6) in 200 non-small cell lung cancer patients, especially among never smokers. Overexpression of AhR increased IL-6 expression in H1355 cells and immortalized human bronchial epithelial cells BEAS-2B. As NFκB inhibitor and knockdown RelA expression greatly reduced constitutive AhR-induced IL-6 expression, we hypothesized that AhR expression, in the absence of exogenous ligand, is able to modulate NFκB activity and subsequently upregulate IL-6 expression, thus promoting the development of lung AD. Specifically, AhR overexpression significantly increased NFκB activity, whereas interference with AhR expression significantly reduced NFκB activity and IL-6 expression in H1355 cells. We demonstrated that AhR associates with RelA in the cytosol and nucleus of human lung cells. Furthermore, AhR overexpression enhanced nuclear localization of AhR and RelA, and increased the association of AhR-RelA with the NFκB response element of the IL-6 promoter. However, p50 was not involved. Our results indicate that AhR, without exposure to a ligand, associates with RelA, which then positively modulates NFκB activity and then upregulates IL-6 expression in human lung cells. Thus we have identified a new mechanism for lung tumorigenesis in non-smokers.

The International Epidemiology of Lung Cancer: geographical distribution and secular trends

This review presents the latest available international data for lung cancer incidence, mortality and survival, emphasizing the established causal relationship between smoking and lung cancer. In 2002, it was estimated that 1.35 million people throughout the world were diagnosed with lung cancer, and 1.18 million died of lung cancer-more than for any other type of cancer. There are some key differences in the epidemiology of lung cancer between more developed and less developed countries. In more developed countries, incidence and mortality rates are generally declining among males and are starting to plateau for females, reflecting previous trends in smoking prevalence. In contrast, there are some populations in less developed countries where increasing lung cancer rates are predicted to continue, due to endemic use of tobacco. A higher proportion of lung cancer cases are attributable to nonsmoking causes within less developed countries, particularly among women. Worldwide, the majority of lung cancer patients are diagnosed after the disease has progressed to a more advanced stage. Despite advances in chemotherapy, prognosis for lung cancer patients remains poor, with 5-year relative survival less than 14% among males and less than 18% among females in most countries. Given the increasing incidence of lung cancer in less developed countries and the current lack of effective treatment for advanced lung cancers, these results highlight the need for ongoing global tobacco reform to reduce the international burden of lung cancer.

Câncer em mulheres idosas das regiões Sul e Sudeste do Brasil: Evolução da mortalidade no período 1980 - 2005

INTRODUÇÃO: Com o envelhecimento progressivo da população, as neoplasias se constituíram em importante causa de morbimortalidade no Brasil. As regiões Sul e Sudeste apresentam as maiores taxas de mortalidade por câncer e abrigam os maiores contingentes de população idosa. OBJETIVO: Analisar a tendência da mortalidade por localizações selecionadas de câncer na população feminina de 60 anos ou mais das regiões Sul e Sudeste do Brasil, no período 1980-2005. METODOLOGIA: Os dados anuais da população residente e de mortalidade por câncer em geral e por câncer de esôfago, estômago, cólon/reto, pâncreas, pulmão, mama e colo de útero foram obtidos no DATASUS. A análise da tendência das taxas de mortalidade foi efetuada para três faixas etárias, a partir de 60 anos, através de modelos de regressão. RESULTADOS: Verificou-se tendência significativa de crescimento da mortalidade por câncer de cólon/reto, pâncreas, pulmão e mama nas três faixas etárias nas duas regiões. O câncer de estômago apresentou tendência significativa de decréscimo em todas as faixas etárias nas regiões Sul e Sudeste, enquanto para câncer de esôfago observou-se tendência significativa de declínio somente no Sudeste. CONCLUSÕES: Os padrões de mortalidade por câncer de mulheres idosas do Sul e Sudeste do Brasil acompanham tendências mundiais, tendo ocorrido importantes variações no período de estudo. Mecanismos envolvidos no comportamento da mortalidade em idosos, em grande parte ainda desconhecidos, assim como diferenças regionais e entre as gerações na prevalência de fatores de risco e proteção para câncer, poderiam explicar parcialmente os padrões observados. São necessários estudos que aprofundem a análise da mortalidade por câncer nesse grupo populacional.

Estimation of mean sojourn time for lung cancer by chest X-ray screening with a Bayesian approach

Very few studies, particularly from oriental population, reported the progression of lung cancer from asymptomatic to symptomatic phase. The present study aimed to estimate mean sojourn time (MST) of lung cancer, an average duration period in which tumour can be asymptotically detected by chest X-ray (CXR), taking into account gender, smoking and histological type. Based on institutional cancer registry for lung cancer patients with prior non-diagnostic CXR (n=221), data were collected on demographic features, histology type, survival status, history of smoking, and asymptomatic or symptomatic status in light of chief complaint at diagnosis retrieved from medical records. The MST for the natural history of lung cancer underpinning a three-state Markov model was estimated with a Bayesian approach. The estimated MST for lung cancer was 5.51 months (95% credible interval: 4.04-7.12). Small cell lung carcinoma was even statistically significantly shorter MST than non-small cell lung carcinoma (3.01 (3-3.98) months vs. 6.07 (4.44-8.25) months). In parallel with literatures reporting tumour growth rate related to CXR and computed tomography (CT), the shorter mean sojourn time by using CXR estimated in our study strongly suggests that CT screening may be more effective in early detection of lung cancer in population-based screening.

Age-period-cohort analysis of lung cancer mortality rates in Andalusia, 1975-2004

Our objective is to describe lung cancer mortality trends in Andalusia, Spain, during the period 1975-2004 using age-period-cohort analysis (APC). For each gender, age-standardised (European Standard Population) mortality rates from lung cancer were computed based on the causes of death on the death certificates from the official registry of vital statistics in Andalusia. In men, after climbing considerably from 1975 to 1994, adjusted lung cancer mortality rates, have been declining by 0.8% per year since 1994. For women, the mortality from lung cancer was almost constant but tended to increase after 1994 (average annual increase of 2.1%). Among males, the cohort effect was steadily and appreciably upwards to the cohort born around 1905, then levelled off, and declined in the youngest generations. An increasing period effect was also observed until 1995. For females, cohort values decreased until the cohort born around 1930, then levelled off, and increased for women born since 1940. Period effect trend was downward until 1990, and upward thereafter. In conclusion, the cohort effect observed for women born since 1940 suggests the start of a lung cancer epidemic associated with a higher prevalence of smokers in women. The decrease in prevalence of smokers among males and the decrease in mortality in younger age groups suggest that the trend initiated in 1994 will continue as long as smoking prevalence continues to decrease.

Blue-Violet Excited Autofluorescence Spectroscopy and Imaging of Normal and Cancerous Human Bronchial Tissue after Formalin Fixation

Autofluorescence (AF) imaging is a powerful tool for the detection of (pre-)neoplastic lesions in the bronchi. Several endoscopic imaging systems exploit the spectral and intensity contrast of AF between healthy and (pre-)neoplastic bronchial tissues, yet, the mechanisms underlying these contrasts are poorly understood. In this report, the effect of formalin fixation on the human bronchi AF, hence on the contrast, was studied by spectrofluorometric point measurements and DAFE (Diagnostic AutoFluorescence Endoscopy) broad field imaging. Generally, formalin-fixed samples have higher AF intensity than in vivo, whereas the emission spectral shape is similar. Additionally, the spectrofluorometric data showed a moderate decrease of the AF intensity on (pre-)neoplastic lesions relative to the healthy bronchial samples. However, this decrease was lower than that reported from in vivo measurements. Neither spectral measurements nor imaging revealed spectral contrast between healthy bronchial tissue and (pre-)neoplastic lesions in formalin. These results indicate that epithelial thickening and blood supply in the adjacent lamina propria are likely to play a key role in the generation of the AF contrast in bronchial tissues. Our results show that the AF contrast in bronchial tissues was significantly affected by standard, 10% buffered, formalin fixation. Therefore, these samples are not suited to AF contrast studies.

Preoperative Serum Carcinoembryonic Antigen Level is a Prognostic Factor in Women With Early Non–Small-Cell Lung Cancer

BACKGROUND

Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) is one of the markers evaluated in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The significance of the preoperative serum CEA level in female patients with NSCLC is seldom discussed. In this study, we conducted a retrospective review to investigate the prognostic significance of the preoperative CEA level in female patients with stage I NSCLC.

METHODS

In this study, we looked at 163 female patients with stage I NSCLC. Patient charts were reviewed to collect patient data, including the age of the patient, tumor location, tumor size, visceral pleural invasion, the stage of disease, and the preoperative serum CEA level. The cutoff value of serum CEA level was 6.0 ng/mL. The significance of preoperative CEA level in the prognosis of female patients with stage I NSCLC was evaluated.

RESULTS

Among the 163 female patients with stage I NSCLC, 47 patients (28.8%) had abnormal preoperative serum CEA level (>6 ng/mL). Diagnosis of adenocarcinoma and bronchoalveolar carcinoma accounted for 83.4% of these 163 female patients. In-hospital mortality was encountered in 1 patient. Univariate analysis of survival in the other 162 female patients with stage I NSCLC showed that age, stage, tumor size, and preoperative CEA level were prognostic factors. Visceral pleural invasion had no impact on the prognosis of these patients. Multivariate analysis revealed that tumor size and preoperative CEA level were independent prognostic factors in female patients with stage I NSCLC.

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative serum CEA level and tumor size are independent prognostic factors in female patients with stage I NSCLC. In contrast, visceral pleural invasion was not associated with the prognosis. Importantly, these results suggest that female patients with abnormally high preoperative CEA level and tumor size larger than 3 cm may need a thorough preoperative evaluation and careful postoperative follow-up to rule out occult metastasis of early NSCLC.

Temporal trends in non-small cell lung cancer survival in Sweden

We modeled temporal trends in the 1- and 5-year survival of 32 499 patients with adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma of the lung in the Swedish Cancer Register between 1961 and 2000. The 1-year relative survival for adenocarcinoma improved from 37% for patients diagnosed 1961–1965 to 45% for those diagnosed 1996–2000 and from 39 to 45% for squamous cell carcinoma. The adjusted excess mortality ratios for the period 1996–2000 compared with 1961–1965 were 0.80 for adenocarcinoma and 0.81 for squamous cell carcinoma. Thus, a previous report in a Dutch study of a relatively worsening prognosis for adenocarcinoma over time could not be confirmed.

[Lung cancer in women: a different entity?]

Lung cancer is becoming a real epidemic in developed countries and one of the main causes of cancer death in women. Although it is controversial to state, it is probable that women are more susceptible to lung cancer than men. Molecular and genetic epidemiology studies are underway to prove this statement. Several biological factors, such as family history, histopathology, response to treatment and the prognosis for lung cancer in women have a bearing on the case. While these are not completely clear or consensual, there is a need for wide-ranging prospective studies which compare the differences between males and females. Until now, there has only been one area in which gender could impact on the therapeutic management of lung cancer: the role of gefitinib and erlotinib in inhibiting the epidermal growth factor receptors, since these products are clearly of more benefit to female non-smokers. Given that women have a better lung cancer prognosis, it is recommended that future research protocols include stratification on gender. Prevention of lung cancer in both women and men is a priority public health concern. A mandatory aim of this is the fight against smoking, the largest aetiological factor of lung cancer.

The significance of estrogen receptor beta in 301 surgically treated non-small cell lung cancers

OBJECTIVE

Estrogen receptor expression in lung cancer has been understudied, particularly in light of its potential biologic importance in the epidemic of lung cancer in women. The expression of estrogen receptors was investigated to better understand the possible role of sex hormones in lung cancer.

METHODS

A total of 301 patients with surgically resected non-small cell lung cancers of stages I to III were explored. Sections of paraffin-embedded tumor samples were stained with estrogen receptor alpha and estrogen receptor beta antibodies. Tumors with moderate-to-strong nuclear staining in at least 50% of the tumor cells were scored as positive for overexpression.

RESULTS

The overall frequency of overexpression for estrogen receptor beta was 45.8% (138/301). It was detected most frequently in female patients (in 54.3% of 127 tumors vs 39.7% of 174 tumors in men, P = .012). However, there was no estrogen receptor alpha nuclear staining detectable in non-small cell lung cancers. Interestingly, a significant correlation between estrogen receptor beta expression, stage of disease, grade of differentiation, smoking status, vascular invasion, and survival in patients with stage II and III disease was found. By using multivariate analysis of survival among patients with stage II and III disease, estrogen receptor beta overexpression, stage II tumor, well differentiation, nonsmoking status, and lack of vascular invasion were significantly favorable prognostic factors.

CONCLUSIONS

The results presented here show for the first time that immunohistochemical expression of estrogen receptor beta can be used as a prognostic indicator in patients with surgically resected stage II and III non-small cell lung cancers. These observations might offer a possibility for hormonal therapy in patients with lung cancer.