Estimation of dynamic flux profiles from metabolic time series data

Optimal control of agent-based models via surrogate modeling

This paper describes and validates an algorithm to solve optimal control problems for agent-based models (ABMs). For a given ABM and a given optimal control problem, the algorithm derives a surrogate model, typically lower-dimensional, in the form of a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs), solves the control problem for the surrogate model, and then transfers the solution back to the original ABM. It applies to quite general ABMs and offers several options for the ODE structure, depending on what information about the ABM is to be used. There is a broad range of applications for such an algorithm, since ABMs are used widely in the life sciences, such as ecology, epidemiology, and biomedicine and healthcare, areas where optimal control is an important purpose for modeling, such as for medical digital twin technology.

Towards inferring absolute concentrations from relative abundance in time-course GC-MS metabolomics data

Metabolomics, the large-scale study of metabolites, has significant appeal as a source of information for metabolic modeling and other scientific applications. One common approach for measuring metabolomics data is gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). However, GC-MS metabolomics data are typically reported as relative abundances, precluding their use with approaches and tools where absolute concentrations are necessary. While chemical standards can be used to help provide quantification, their use is time-consuming, expensive, or even impossible due to their limited availability. The ability to infer absolute concentrations from GC-MS metabolomics data without chemical standards would have significant value. We hypothesized that when analyzing time-course metabolomics datasets, the mass balances of metabolism and other biological information could provide sufficient information towards inference of absolute concentrations. To demonstrate this, we developed and characterized MetaboPAC, a computational framework that uses two approaches-one based on kinetic equations and another using biological heuristics-to predict the most likely response factors that allow translation between relative abundances and absolute concentrations. When used to analyze noiseless synthetic data generated from multiple types of kinetic rate laws, MetaboPAC performs significantly better than negative control approaches when 20% of kinetic terms are known a priori. Under conditions of lower sampling frequency and high noise, MetaboPAC is still able to provide significant inference of concentrations in 3 of 4 models studied. This provides a starting point for leveraging biological knowledge to extract concentration information from time-course intracellular GC-MS metabolomics datasets, particularly for systems that are well-studied and have partially known kinetic structures.

Dynamic Flux Balance Analysis to Evaluate the Strain Production Performance on Shikimic Acid Production in Escherichia coli

Flux balance analysis (FBA) is used to improve the microbial production of useful compounds. However, a large gap often exists between the FBA solution and the experimental yield, because of growth and byproducts. FBA has been extended to dynamic FBA (dFBA), which is applicable to time-varying processes, such as batch or fed-batch cultures, and has significantly contributed to metabolic and cultural engineering applications. On the other hand, the performance of the experimental strains has not been fully evaluated. In this study, we applied dFBA to the production of shikimic acid from glucose in Escherichia coli, to evaluate the production performance of the strain as a case study. The experimental data of glucose consumption and cell growth were used as FBA constraints. Bi-level FBA optimization with maximized growth and shikimic acid production were the objective functions. Results suggest that the shikimic acid concentration in the high-shikimic-acid-producing strain constructed in the experiment reached up to 84% of the maximum value by simulation. Thus, this method can be used to evaluate the performance of strains and estimate the milestones of strain improvement.

LK-DFBA: a linear programming-based modeling strategy for capturing dynamics and metabolite-dependent regulation in metabolism

BACKGROUND

The systems-scale analysis of cellular metabolites, "metabolomics," provides data ideal for applications in metabolic engineering. However, many of the computational tools for strain design are built around Flux Balance Analysis (FBA), which makes assumptions that preclude direct integration of metabolomics data into the underlying models. Finding a way to retain the advantages of FBA's linear structure while relaxing some of its assumptions could allow us to account for metabolite levels and metabolite-dependent regulation in strain design tools built from FBA, improving the accuracy of predictions made by these tools. We designed, implemented, and characterized a modeling strategy based on Dynamic FBA (DFBA), called Linear Kinetics-Dynamic Flux Balance Analysis (LK-DFBA), to satisfy these specifications. Our strategy adds constraints describing the dynamics and regulation of metabolism that are strictly linear. We evaluated LK-DFBA against alternative modeling frameworks using simulated noisy data from a small in silico model and a larger model of central carbon metabolism in E. coli, and compared each framework's ability to recapitulate the original system.

RESULTS

In the smaller model, we found that we could use regression from a dynamic flux estimation (DFE) with an optional non-linear parameter optimization to reproduce metabolite concentration dynamic trends more effectively than an ordinary differential equation model with generalized mass action rate laws when tested under realistic data sampling frequency and noise levels. We observed detrimental effects across all tested modeling approaches when metabolite time course data were missing, but found these effects to be smaller for LK-DFBA in most cases. With the E. coli model, we produced qualitatively reasonable results with similar properties to the smaller model and explored two different parameterization structures that yield trade-offs in computation time and accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

LK-DFBA allows for calculation of metabolite concentrations and considers metabolite-dependent regulation while still retaining many computational advantages of FBA. This provides the proof-of-principle for a new metabolic modeling framework with the potential to create genome-scale dynamic models and the potential to be applied in strain engineering tools that currently use FBA.

The best models of metabolism

Biochemical systems are among of the oldest application areas of mathematical modeling. Spanning a time period of over one hundred years, the repertoire of options for structuring a model and for formulating reactions has been constantly growing, and yet, it is still unclear whether or to what degree some models are better than others and how the modeler is to choose among them. In fact, the variety of options has become overwhelming and difficult to maneuver for novices and experts alike. This review outlines the metabolic model design process and discusses the numerous choices for modeling frameworks and mathematical representations. It tries to be inclusive, even though it cannot be complete, and introduces the various modeling options in a manner that is as unbiased as that is feasible. However, the review does end with personal recommendations for the choices of default models. WIREs Syst Biol Med 2017, 9:e1391. doi: 10.1002/wsbm.1391 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

Identification of microbiota dynamics using robust parameter estimation methods

The compositions of in-host microbial communities (microbiota) play a significant role in host health, and a better understanding of the microbiota's role in a host's transition from health to disease or vice versa could lead to novel medical treatments. One of the first steps toward this understanding is modeling interaction dynamics of the microbiota, which can be exceedingly challenging given the complexity of the dynamics and difficulties in collecting sufficient data. Methods such as principal differential analysis, dynamic flux estimation, and others have been developed to overcome these challenges. Despite their advantages, these methods are still vastly underutilized in fields such as mathematical biology, and one potential reason for this is their sophisticated implementation. While this paper focuses on applying principal differential analysis to microbiota data, we also provide comprehensive details regarding the derivation and numerics of this method and include a functional implementation for readers' benefit. For further validation of these methods, we demonstrate the feasibility of principal differential analysis using simulation studies and then apply the method to intestinal and vaginal microbiota data. In working with these data, we capture experimentally confirmed dynamics while also revealing potential new insights into the system dynamics.

Metabolic adjustment upon repetitive substrate perturbations using dynamic 13C-tracing in yeast

BACKGROUND

Natural and industrial environments are dynamic with respect to substrate availability and other conditions like temperature and pH. Especially, metabolism is strongly affected by changes in the extracellular space. Here we study the dynamic flux of central carbon metabolism and storage carbohydrate metabolism under dynamic feast/famine conditions in Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

RESULTS

The metabolic flux reacts fast and sensitive to cyclic perturbations in substrate availability. Compared to well-documented stimulus-response experiments using substrate pulses, different metabolic responses are observed. Especially, cells experiencing cyclic perturbations do not show a drop in ATP with the addition of glucose, but an immediate increase in energy charge. Although a high glycolytic flux of up to 5.4 mmol g DW-1  h-1 is observed, no overflow metabolites are detected. From famine to feast the glucose uptake rate increased from 170 to 4788 μmol g DW-1  h-1 in 24 s. Intracellularly, even more drastic changes were observed. Especially, the T6P synthesis rate increased more than 100-fold upon glucose addition. This response indicates that the storage metabolism is very sensitive to changes in glycolytic flux and counterbalances these rapid changes by diverting flux into large pools to prevent substrate accelerated death and potentially refill the central metabolism when substrates become scarce. Using 13C-tracer we found a dilution in the labeling of extracellular glucose, G6P, T6P and other metabolites, indicating an influx of unlabeled carbon. It is shown that glycogen and trehalose degradation via different routes could explain these observations. Based on the 13C labeling in average 15% of the carbon inflow is recycled via trehalose and glycogen. This average fraction is comparable to the steady-state turnover, but changes significantly during the cycle, indicating the relevance for dynamic regulation of the metabolic flux.

CONCLUSIONS

Comparable to electric energy grids, metabolism seems to use storage units to buffer peaks and keep reserves to maintain a robust function. During the applied fast feast/famine conditions about 15% of the metabolized carbon were recycled in storage metabolism. Additionally, the resources were distributed different to steady-state conditions. Most remarkably is a fivefold increased flux towards PPP that generated a reversed flux of transaldolase and the F6P-producing transketolase reactions. Combined with slight changes in the biomass composition, the yield decrease of 5% can be explained.

Nonparametric dynamic modeling

Challenging as it typically is, the estimation of parameter values seems to be an unavoidable step in the design and implementation of any dynamic model. Here, we demonstrate that it is possible to set up, diagnose, and simulate dynamic models without the need to estimate parameter values, if the situation is favorable. Specifically, it is possible to establish nonparametric models for nonlinear compartment models, including metabolic pathway models, if sufficiently many high-quality time series data are available that describe the biological phenomenon under investigation in an appropriate and representative manner. The proposed nonparametric strategy is a variant of the method of Dynamic Flux Estimation (DFE), which permits the estimation of numerical flux profiles from metabolic time series data. However, instead of attempting to formulate these numerical profiles as explicit functions and to optimize their parameter values, as it is done in DFE, the metabolite and flux profiles are used here directly as a scaffold for a library from which values are interpolated and retrieved for the simulation of the differential equations describing the model. Beyond simulations, the proposed methods render it possible to determine steady states from non-steady state data, perform sensitivity analyses, and estimate the Jacobian of the system at a steady state.

Perspective: On the importance of hydrodynamic interactions in the subcellular dynamics of macromolecules

An outstanding challenge in computational biophysics is the simulation of a living cell at molecular detail. Over the past several years, using Stokesian dynamics, progress has been made in simulating coarse grained molecular models of the cytoplasm. Since macromolecules comprise 20%-40% of the volume of a cell, one would expect that steric interactions dominate macromolecular diffusion. However, the reduction in cellular diffusion rates relative to infinite dilution is due, roughly equally, to steric and hydrodynamic interactions, HI, with nonspecific attractive interactions likely playing rather a minor role. HI not only serve to slow down long time diffusion rates but also cause a considerable reduction in the magnitude of the short time diffusion coefficient relative to that at infinite dilution. More importantly, the long range contribution of the Rotne-Prager-Yamakawa diffusion tensor results in temporal and spatial correlations that persist up to microseconds and for intermolecular distances on the order of protein radii. While HI slow down the bimolecular association rate in the early stages of lipid bilayer formation, they accelerate the rate of large scale assembly of lipid aggregates. This is suggestive of an important role for HI in the self-assembly kinetics of large macromolecular complexes such as tubulin. Since HI are important, questions as to whether continuum models of HI are adequate as well as improved simulation methodologies that will make simulations of more complex cellular processes practical need to be addressed. Nevertheless, the stage is set for the molecular simulations of ever more complex subcellular processes.

Mathematical Modeling and Dynamic Simulation of Metabolic Reaction Systems Using Metabolome Time Series Data

The high-throughput acquisition of metabolome data is greatly anticipated for the complete understanding of cellular metabolism in living organisms. A variety of analytical technologies have been developed to acquire large-scale metabolic profiles under different biological or environmental conditions. Time series data are useful for predicting the most likely metabolic pathways because they provide important information regarding the accumulation of metabolites, which implies causal relationships in the metabolic reaction network. Considerable effort has been undertaken to utilize these data for constructing a mathematical model merging system properties and quantitatively characterizing a whole metabolic system in toto. However, there are technical difficulties between benchmarking the provision and utilization of data. Although, hundreds of metabolites can be measured, which provide information on the metabolic reaction system, simultaneous measurement of thousands of metabolites is still challenging. In addition, it is nontrivial to logically predict the dynamic behaviors of unmeasurable metabolite concentrations without sufficient information on the metabolic reaction network. Yet, consolidating the advantages of advancements in both metabolomics and mathematical modeling remain to be accomplished. This review outlines the conceptual basis of and recent advances in technologies in both the research fields. It also highlights the potential for constructing a large-scale mathematical model by estimating model parameters from time series metabolome data in order to comprehensively understand metabolism at the systems level.

Identification of Metabolic Pathway Systems

The estimation of parameters in even moderately large biological systems is a significant challenge. This challenge is greatly exacerbated if the mathematical formats of appropriate process descriptions are unknown. To address this challenge, the method of dynamic flux estimation (DFE) was proposed for the analysis of metabolic time series data. Under ideal conditions, the first phase of DFE yields numerical representations of all fluxes within a metabolic pathway system, either as values at each time point or as plots against their substrates and modulators. However, this numerical result does not reveal the mathematical format of each flux. Thus, the second phase of DFE selects functional formats that are consistent with the numerical trends obtained from the first phase. While greatly facilitating metabolic data analysis, DFE is only directly applicable if the pathway system contains as many dependent variables as fluxes. Because most actual systems contain more fluxes than metabolite pools, this requirement is seldom satisfied. Auxiliary methods have been proposed to alleviate this issue, but they are not general. Here we propose strategies that extend DFE toward general, slightly underdetermined pathway systems.

New insights into the complex regulation of the glycolytic pathway in Lactococcus lactis. I. Construction and diagnosis of a comprehensive dynamic model

This article and the companion paper use computational systems modeling to decipher the complex coordination of regulatory signals controlling the glycolytic pathway in the dairy bacterium Lactococcus lactis.

Rites of passage: requirements and standards for building kinetic models of metabolic phenotypes

The overarching ambition of kinetic metabolic modeling is to capture the dynamic behavior of metabolism to such an extent that systems and synthetic biology strategies can reliably be tested in silico. The lack of kinetic data hampers the development of kinetic models, and most of the current models use ad hoc reduced stoichiometry or oversimplified kinetic rate expressions, which may limit their predictive strength. There is a need to introduce the community-level standards that will organize and accelerate the future developments in this area. We introduce here a set of requirements that will ensure the model quality, we examine the current kinetic models with respect to these requirements, and we propose a general workflow for constructing models that satisfy these requirements.

Improved metabolite profile smoothing for flux estimation

As genome-scale metabolic models become more sophisticated and dynamic, one significant challenge in using these models is to effectively integrate increasingly prevalent systems-scale metabolite profiling data into them. One common data processing step when integrating metabolite data is to smooth experimental time course measurements: the smoothed profiles can be used to estimate metabolite accumulation (derivatives), and thus the flux distribution of the metabolic model. However, this smoothing step is susceptible to the (often significant) noise in experimental measurements, limiting the accuracy of downstream model predictions. Here, we present several improvements to current approaches for smoothing metabolite time course data using defined functions. First, we use a biologically-inspired mathematical model function taken from transcriptional profiling and clustering literature that captures the dynamics of many biologically relevant transient processes. We demonstrate that it is competitive with, and often superior to, previously described fitting schemas, and may serve as an effective single option for data smoothing in metabolic flux applications. We also implement a resampling-based approach to buffer out sensitivity to specific data sets and allow for more accurate fitting of noisy data. We found that this method, as well as the addition of parameter space constraints, yielded improved estimates of concentrations and derivatives (fluxes) in previously described fitting functions. These methods have the potential to improve the accuracy of existing and future dynamic metabolic models by allowing for the more effective integration of metabolite profiling data.

Plant stress biomarkers from biosimulations: the Transcriptome-To-Metabolome (TTM) technology - effects of drought stress on rice

Measuring biomarkers from plant tissue samples is challenging and expensive when the desire is to integrate transcriptomics, fluxomics, metabolomics, lipidomics, proteomics, physiomics and phenomics. We present a computational biology method where only the transcriptome needs to be measured and is used to derive a set of parameters for deterministic kinetic models of metabolic pathways. The technology is called Transcriptome-To-Metabolome (TTM) biosimulations, currently under commercial development, but available for non-commercial use by researchers. The simulated results on metabolites of 30 primary and secondary metabolic pathways in rice (Oryza sativa) were used as the biomarkers to predict whether the transcriptome was from a plant that had been under drought conditions. The rice transcriptomes were accessed from public archives and each individual plant was simulated. This unique quality of the TTM technology allows standard analyses on biomarker assessments, i.e. sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, accuracy, receiver operator characteristics (ROC) curve and area under the ROC curve (AUC). Two validation methods were also used, the holdout and 10-fold cross validations. Initially 17 metabolites were identified as candidate biomarkers based on either statistical significance on binary phenotype when compared with control samples or recognition from the literature. The top three biomarkers based on AUC were gibberellic acid 12 (0.89), trehalose (0.80) and sn1-palmitate-sn2-oleic-phosphatidylglycerol (0.70). Neither heat map analyses of transcriptomes nor all 300 metabolites clustered the stressed and control groups effectively. The TTM technology allows the emergent properties of the integrated system to generate unique and useful 'Omics' information.

MetDFBA: incorporating time-resolved metabolomics measurements into dynamic flux balance analysis

This paper presents MetDFBA, a new approach incorporating experimental metabolomics time-series into constraint-based modeling. The method can be used for hypothesis testing and predicting dynamic flux profiles.

Dynamic estimation of specific fluxes in metabolic networks using non-linear dynamic optimization

BACKGROUND

Metabolic network models describing the biochemical reaction network and material fluxes inside microorganisms open interesting routes for the model-based optimization of bioprocesses. Dynamic metabolic flux analysis (dMFA) has lately been studied as an extension of regular metabolic flux analysis (MFA), rendering a dynamic view of the fluxes, also in non-stationary conditions. Recent dMFA implementations suffer from some drawbacks, though. More specifically, the fluxes are not estimated as specific fluxes, which are more biologically relevant. Also, the flux profiles are not smooth, and additional constraints like, e.g., irreversibility constraints on the fluxes, cannot be taken into account. Finally, in all previous methods, a basis for the null space of the stoichiometric matrix, i.e., which set of free fluxes is used, needs to be chosen. This choice is not trivial, and has a large influence on the resulting estimates.

RESULTS

In this work, a new methodology based on a B-spline parameterization of the fluxes is presented. Because of the high degree of non-linearity due to this parameterization, an incremental knot insertion strategy has been devised, resulting in a sequence of non-linear dynamic optimization problems. These are solved using state-of-the-art dynamic optimization methods and tools, i.e., orthogonal collocation, an interior-point optimizer and automatic differentiation. Also, a procedure to choose an optimal basis for the null space of the stoichiometric matrix is described, discarding the need to make a choice beforehand. The proposed methodology is validated on two simulated case studies: (i) a small-scale network with 7 fluxes, to illustrate the operation of the algorithm, and (ii) a medium-scale network with 68 fluxes, to show the algorithm's capabilities for a realistic network. The results show an accurate correspondence to the reference fluxes used to simulate the measurements, both in a theoretically ideal setting with no experimental noise, and in a realistic noise setting.

CONCLUSIONS

Because, apart from a metabolic reaction network and the measurements, no extra input needs to be given, the resulting algorithm is a systematic, integrated and accurate methodology for dynamic metabolic flux analysis that can be run online in real-time if necessary.

Derivative processes for modelling metabolic fluxes

Motivation: One of the challenging questions in modelling biological systems is to characterize the functional forms of the processes that control and orchestrate molecular and cellular phenotypes. Recently proposed methods for the analysis of metabolic pathways, for example, dynamic flux estimation, can only provide estimates of the underlying fluxes at discrete time points but fail to capture the complete temporal behaviour. To describe the dynamic variation of the fluxes, we additionally require the assumption of specific functional forms that can capture the temporal behaviour. However, it also remains unclear how to address the noise which might be present in experimentally measured metabolite concentrations.

Results: Here we propose a novel approach to modelling metabolic fluxes: derivative processes that are based on multiple-output Gaussian processes (MGPs), which are a flexible non-parametric Bayesian modelling technique. The main advantages that follow from MGPs approach include the natural non-parametric representation of the fluxes and ability to impute the missing data in between the measurements. Our derivative process approach allows us to model changes in metabolite derivative concentrations and to characterize the temporal behaviour of metabolic fluxes from time course data. Because the derivative of a Gaussian process is itself a Gaussian process, we can readily link metabolite concentrations to metabolic fluxes and vice versa. Here we discuss how this can be implemented in an MGP framework and illustrate its application to simple models, including nitrogen metabolism in Escherichia coli.

Availability and implementation: R code is available from the authors upon request.

Contact:j.norkunaite@imperial.ac.uk; m.stumpf@imperial.ac.uk

Supplementary information:Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Advancing metabolic models with kinetic information

Kinetic models are crucial to quantitatively understand and predict how functional behavior emerges from dynamic concentration changes of cellular components. The current challenge is on resolving uncertainties about parameter values of reaction kinetics. Additionally, there are also major structural uncertainties due to unknown molecular interactions and only putatively assigned regulatory functions. What if one or few key regulators of biochemical reactions are missing in a metabolic model? By reviewing current advances in building kinetic models of metabolism, we found that such models experience a paradigm shift away from fitting parameters towards identifying key regulatory interactions.

Characterizability of metabolic pathway systems from time series data

Over the past decade, the biomathematical community has devoted substantial effort to the complicated challenge of estimating parameter values for biological systems models. An even more difficult issue is the characterization of functional forms for the processes that govern these systems. Most parameter estimation approaches tacitly assume that these forms are known or can be assumed with some validity. However, this assumption is not always true. The recently proposed method of Dynamic Flux Estimation (DFE) addresses this problem in a genuinely novel fashion for metabolic pathway systems. Specifically, DFE allows the characterization of fluxes within such systems through an analysis of metabolic time series data. Its main drawback is the fact that DFE can only directly be applied if the pathway system contains as many metabolites as unknown fluxes. This situation is unfortunately rare. To overcome this roadblock, earlier work in this field had proposed strategies for augmenting the set of unknown fluxes with independent kinetic information, which however is not always available. Employing Moore-Penrose pseudo-inverse methods of linear algebra, the present article discusses an approach for characterizing fluxes from metabolic time series data that is applicable even if the pathway system is underdetermined and contains more fluxes than metabolites. Intriguingly, this approach is independent of a specific modeling framework and unaffected by noise in the experimental time series data. The results reveal whether any fluxes may be characterized and, if so, which subset is characterizable. They also help with the identification of fluxes that, if they could be determined independently, would allow the application of DFE.

ODEion--a software module for structural identification of ordinary differential equations

In the systems biology field, algorithms for structural identification of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) have mainly focused on fixed model spaces like S-systems and/or on methods that require sufficiently good data so that derivatives can be accurately estimated. There is therefore a lack of methods and software that can handle more general models and realistic data. We present ODEion, a software module for structural identification of ODEs. Main characteristic features of the software are: • The model space is defined by arbitrary user-defined functions that can be nonlinear in both variables and parameters, such as for example chemical rate reactions. • ODEion implements computationally efficient algorithms that have been shown to efficiently handle sparse and noisy data. It can run a range of realistic problems that previously required a supercomputer. • ODEion is easy to use and provides SBML output. We describe the mathematical problem, the ODEion system itself, and provide several examples of how the system can be used. Available at: http://www.odeidentification.org.

Mesoscopic modeling as a starting point for computational analyses of cystic fibrosis as a systemic disease

Probably the most prominent expectation associated with systems biology is the computational support of personalized medicine and predictive health. At least some of this anticipated support is envisioned in the form of disease simulators that will take hundreds of personalized biomarker data as input and allow the physician to explore and optimize possible treatment regimens on a computer before the best treatment is applied to the actual patient in a custom-tailored manner. The key prerequisites for such simulators are mathematical and computational models that not only manage the input data and implement the general physiological and pathological principles of organ systems but also integrate the myriads of details that affect their functionality to a significant degree. Obviously, the construction of such models is an overwhelming task that suggests the long-term development of hierarchical or telescopic approaches representing the physiology of organs and their diseases, first coarsely and over time with increased granularity. This article illustrates the rudiments of such a strategy in the context of cystic fibrosis (CF) of the lung. The starting point is a very simplistic, generic model of inflammation, which has been shown to capture the principles of infection, trauma, and sepsis surprisingly well. The adaptation of this model to CF contains as variables healthy and damaged cells, as well as different classes of interacting cytokines and infectious microbes that are affected by mucus formation, which is the hallmark symptom of the disease (Perez-Vilar and Boucher, 2004) [1]. The simple model represents the overall dynamics of the disease progression, including so-called acute pulmonary exacerbations, quite well, but of course does not provide much detail regarding the specific processes underlying the disease. In order to launch the next level of modeling with finer granularity, it is desirable to determine which components of the coarse model contribute most to the disease dynamics. The article introduces for this purpose the concept of module gains or ModGains, which quantify the sensitivity of key disease variables in the higher-level system. In reality, these variables represent complex modules at the next level of granularity, and the computation of ModGains therefore allows an importance ranking of variables that should be replaced with more detailed models. The "hot-swapping" of such detailed modules for former variables is greatly facilitated by the architecture and implementation of the overarching, coarse model structure, which is here formulated with methods of biochemical systems theory (BST). This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Computational Proteomics, Systems Biology & Clinical Implications. Guest Editor: Yudong Cai.

Adaptive neural-based fuzzy modeling for biological systems

The inverse problem of identifying dynamic biological networks from their time-course response data set is a cornerstone of systems biology. Hill and Michaelis-Menten model, which is a forward approach, provides local kinetic information. However, repeated modifications and a large amount of experimental data are necessary for the parameter identification. S-system model, which is composed of highly nonlinear differential equations, provides the direct identification of an interactive network. However, the identification of skeletal-network structure is challenging. Moreover, biological systems are always subject to uncertainty and noise. Are there suitable candidates with the potential to deal with noise-contaminated data sets? Fuzzy set theory is developed for handing uncertainty, imprecision and complexity in the real world; for example, we say "driving speed is high" wherein speed is a fuzzy variable and high is a fuzzy set, which uses the membership function to indicate the degree of a element belonging to the set (words in Italics to denote fuzzy variables or fuzzy sets). Neural network possesses good robustness and learning capability. In this study we hybrid these two together into a neural-fuzzy modeling technique. A biological system is formulated to a multi-input-multi-output (MIMO) Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy system, which is composed of rule-based linear subsystems. Two kinds of smooth membership functions (MFs), Gaussian and Bell-shaped MFs, are used. The performance of the proposed method is tested with three biological systems.

Ensemble kinetic modeling of metabolic networks from dynamic metabolic profiles

Kinetic modeling of metabolic pathways has important applications in metabolic engineering, but significant challenges still remain. The difficulties faced vary from finding best-fit parameters in a highly multidimensional search space to incomplete parameter identifiability. To meet some of these challenges, an ensemble modeling method is developed for characterizing a subset of kinetic parameters that give statistically equivalent goodness-of-fit to time series concentration data. The method is based on the incremental identification approach, where the parameter estimation is done in a step-wise manner. Numerical efficacy is achieved by reducing the dimensionality of parameter space and using efficient random parameter exploration algorithms. The shift toward using model ensembles, instead of the traditional "best-fit" models, is necessary to directly account for model uncertainty during the application of such models. The performance of the ensemble modeling approach has been demonstrated in the modeling of a generic branched pathway and the trehalose pathway in Saccharomyces cerevisiae using generalized mass action (GMA) kinetics.