Darwinian Approaches for Cancer Treatment: Benefits of Mathematical Modeling

One of the major problems of traditional anti-cancer treatments is that they lead to the emergence of treatment-resistant cells, which results in treatment failure. To avoid or delay this phenomenon, it is relevant to take into account the eco-evolutionary dynamics of tumors. Designing evolution-based treatment strategies may help overcoming the problem of drug resistance. In particular, a promising candidate is adaptive therapy, a containment strategy which adjusts treatment cycles to the evolution of the tumors in order to keep the population of treatment-resistant cells under control. Mathematical modeling is a crucial tool to understand the dynamics of cancer in response to treatments, and to make predictions about the outcomes of these treatments. In this review, we highlight the benefits of in silico modeling to design adaptive therapy strategies, and to assess whether they could effectively improve treatment outcomes. Specifically, we review how two main types of models (i.e., mathematical models based on Lotka-Volterra equations and agent-based models) have been used to model tumor dynamics in response to adaptive therapy. We give examples of the advances they permitted in the field of adaptive therapy and discuss about how these models can be integrated in experimental approaches and clinical trial design.

Lotka-Volterra approximations for evolutionary trait-substitution processes

A set of axioms is formulated characterizing ecologically plausible community dynamics. Using these axioms, it is proved that the transients following an invasion into a sufficiently stable equilibrium community by a mutant phenotype similar to one of the community's finitely many resident phenotypes can always be approximated by means of an appropriately chosen Lotka–Volterra model. To this end, the assumption is made that similar phenotypes in the community form clusters that are well-separated from each other, as is expected to be generally the case when evolution proceeds through small mutational steps. Each phenotypic cluster is represented by a single phenotype, which we call an approximate phenotype and assign the cluster’s total population density. We present our results in three steps. First, for a set of approximate phenotypes with arbitrary equilibrium population densities before the invasion, the Lotka–Volterra approximation is proved to apply if the changes of the population densities of these phenotypes are sufficiently small during the transient following the invasion. Second, quantitative conditions for such small changes of population densities are derived as a relationship between within-cluster differences and the leading eigenvalue of the community’s Jacobian matrix evaluated at the equilibrium population densities before the invasion. Third, to demonstrate the utility of our results, the ‘invasion implies substitution’ result for monomorphic populations is extended to arbitrarily polymorphic populations consisting of well-recognizable and -separated clusters.

Is the addition of higher-order interactions in ecological models increasing the understanding of ecological dynamics?

Recent work has shown that higher-order terms in population dynamics models can increase the stability, promote the diversity, and better explain the dynamics of ecological systems. While it is known that these perceived benefits come from an increasing number of alternative solutions given by the nature of multivariate polynomials, this mathematical advantage has not been formally quantified. Here, we develop a general method to quantify the mathematical advantage of adding higher-order interactions in ecological models based on the number of free-equilibrium points that can emerge in a system (i.e., equilibria that can be feasible or unfeasible as a function of model parameters). We apply this method to calculate the number of free-equilibrium points in Lotka-Volterra dynamics. While it is known that Lotka-Volterra models without higher-order interactions only have one free-equilibrium point regardless of the number of parameters, we find that by adding higher-order terms this number increases exponentially with the dimension of the system. Hence, the number of free-equilibrium points can be used to compare more fairly between ecological models. Our results suggest that while adding higher-order interactions in ecological models may be good for prediction purposes, they cannot provide additional explanatory power of ecological dynamics if model parameters are not ecologically restricted.

Identification of microbiota dynamics using robust parameter estimation methods

The compositions of in-host microbial communities (microbiota) play a significant role in host health, and a better understanding of the microbiota's role in a host's transition from health to disease or vice versa could lead to novel medical treatments. One of the first steps toward this understanding is modeling interaction dynamics of the microbiota, which can be exceedingly challenging given the complexity of the dynamics and difficulties in collecting sufficient data. Methods such as principal differential analysis, dynamic flux estimation, and others have been developed to overcome these challenges. Despite their advantages, these methods are still vastly underutilized in fields such as mathematical biology, and one potential reason for this is their sophisticated implementation. While this paper focuses on applying principal differential analysis to microbiota data, we also provide comprehensive details regarding the derivation and numerics of this method and include a functional implementation for readers' benefit. For further validation of these methods, we demonstrate the feasibility of principal differential analysis using simulation studies and then apply the method to intestinal and vaginal microbiota data. In working with these data, we capture experimentally confirmed dynamics while also revealing potential new insights into the system dynamics.