Physiological modeling, tight glycemic control, and the ICU clinician: what are models and how can they affect practice?

Estimating Enhanced Endogenous Glucose Production in Intensive Care Unit Patients with Severe Insulin Resistance

BACKGROUND

Critically ill ICU patients frequently experience acute insulin resistance and increased endogenous glucose production, manifesting as stress-induced hyperglycemia and hyperinsulinemia. STAR (Stochastic TARgeted) is a glycemic control protocol, which directly manages inter- and intra- patient variability using model-based insulin sensitivity (SI). The model behind STAR assumes a population constant for endogenous glucose production (EGP), which is not otherwise identifiable.

OBJECTIVE

This study analyses the effect of estimating EGP for ICU patients with very low SI (severe insulin resistance) and its impact on identified, model-based insulin sensitivity identification, modeling accuracy, and model-based glycemic clinical control.

METHODS

Using clinical data from 717 STAR patients in 3 independent cohorts (Hungary, New Zealand, and Malaysia), insulin sensitivity, time of insulin resistance, and EGP values are analyzed. A method is presented to estimate EGP in the presence of non-physiologically low SI. Performance is assessed via model accuracy.

RESULTS

Results show 22%-62% of patients experience 1+ episodes of severe insulin resistance, representing 0.87%-9.00% of hours. Episodes primarily occur in the first 24 h, matching clinical expectations. The Malaysian cohort is most affected. In this subset of hours, constant model-based EGP values can bias identified SI and increase blood glucose (BG) fitting error. Using the EGP estimation method presented in these constrained hours significantly reduced BG fitting errors.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients early in ICU stay may have significantly increased EGP. Increasing modeled EGP in model-based glycemic control can improve control accuracy in these hours. The results provide new insight into the frequency and level of significantly increased EGP in critical illness.

Insulin sensitivity in critically ill patients: are women more insulin resistant?

Background

Glycaemic control (GC) in intensive care unit is challenging due to significant inter- and intra-patient variability, leading to increased risk of hypoglycaemia. Recent work showed higher insulin resistance in female preterm neonates. This study aims to determine if there are differences in inter- and intra-patient metabolic variability between sexes in adults, to gain in insight into any differences in metabolic response to injury. Any significant difference would suggest GC and randomised trial design should consider sex differences to personalise care.

Methods

Insulin sensitivity (SI) levels and variability are identified from retrospective clinical data for men and women. Data are divided using 6-h blocks to capture metabolic evolution over time. In total, 91 male and 54 female patient GC episodes of minimum 24 h are analysed. Hypothesis testing is used to determine whether differences are significant (P < 0.05), and equivalence testing is used to assess whether these differences can be considered equivalent at a clinical level. Data are assessed for the raw cohort and in 100 Monte Carlo simulations analyses where the number of men and women are equal.

Results

Demographic data between females and males were all similar, including GC outcomes (safety from hypoglycaemia and high (> 50%) time in target band). Females had consistently significantly lower SI levels than males, and this difference was not clinically equivalent. However, metabolic variability between sexes was never significantly different and always clinically equivalent. Thus, inter-patient variability was significantly different between males and females, but intra-patient variability was equivalent.

Conclusion

Given equivalent intra-patient variability and significantly greater insulin resistance, females can receive the same benefit from safe, effective GC as males, but may require higher insulin doses to achieve the same glycaemia. Clinical trials should consider sex differences in protocol design and outcome analyses.

Insulin sensitivity in critically ill patients: are women more insulin resistant?

BACKGROUND

Glycaemic control (GC) in intensive care unit is challenging due to significant inter- and intra-patient variability, leading to increased risk of hypoglycaemia. Recent work showed higher insulin resistance in female preterm neonates. This study aims to determine if there are differences in inter- and intra-patient metabolic variability between sexes in adults, to gain in insight into any differences in metabolic response to injury. Any significant difference would suggest GC and randomised trial design should consider sex differences to personalise care.

METHODS

Insulin sensitivity (SI) levels and variability are identified from retrospective clinical data for men and women. Data are divided using 6-h blocks to capture metabolic evolution over time. In total, 91 male and 54 female patient GC episodes of minimum 24 h are analysed. Hypothesis testing is used to determine whether differences are significant (P < 0.05), and equivalence testing is used to assess whether these differences can be considered equivalent at a clinical level. Data are assessed for the raw cohort and in 100 Monte Carlo simulations analyses where the number of men and women are equal.

RESULTS

Demographic data between females and males were all similar, including GC outcomes (safety from hypoglycaemia and high (> 50%) time in target band). Females had consistently significantly lower SI levels than males, and this difference was not clinically equivalent. However, metabolic variability between sexes was never significantly different and always clinically equivalent. Thus, inter-patient variability was significantly different between males and females, but intra-patient variability was equivalent.

CONCLUSION

Given equivalent intra-patient variability and significantly greater insulin resistance, females can receive the same benefit from safe, effective GC as males, but may require higher insulin doses to achieve the same glycaemia. Clinical trials should consider sex differences in protocol design and outcome analyses.

Patient-Specific Monitoring and Trend Analysis of Model-Based Markers of Fluid Responsiveness in Sepsis: A Proof-of-Concept Animal Study

Total stressed blood volume ([Formula: see text]) and arterial elastance ([Formula: see text]) are two potentially important, clinically applicable metrics for guiding treatment in patients with altered hemodynamic states. Defined as the total pressure generating blood in the circulation, [Formula: see text] is a potential direct measurement of tissue perfusion, a critical component in treatment of sepsis. [Formula: see text] is closely related to arterial tone thus provides insight into cardiac efficiency. However, it is not clinically feasible or ethical to measure [Formula: see text] in patients, so a three chambered cardiovascular system model using measured left ventricle pressure and volume, aortic pressure and central venous pressure is implemented to identify [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] from clinical data. [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] are identified from clinical data from six (6) pigs, who have undergone clinical procedures aimed at simulating septic shock and subsequent treatment, to identify clinically relevant changes. A novel, validated trend analysis method is used to adjudge clinically significant changes in state in the real-time [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] traces. Results matched hypothesised increases in [Formula: see text] during fluid therapy, with a mean change of + 21% during initial therapy, and hypothesised decreases during endotoxin induced sepsis, with a mean change of - 29%. [Formula: see text] displayed the hypothesised reciprocal behaviour with a mean changes of - 12 and + 30% during initial therapy and endotoxin induced sepsis, respectively. The overall results validate the efficacy of [Formula: see text] in tracking changes in hemodynamic state in septic shock and fluid therapy.

Parameter estimation in a minimal model of cardio-pulmonary interactions

Mechanical ventilation is a widely used breathing support for patients in intensive care. Its effects on the respiratory and cardiovascular systems are complex and difficult to predict. This work first presents a minimal mathematical model representing the mechanics of both systems and their interaction, in terms of flows, pressures and volumes. The aim of this model is to get insight on the two systems' status when mechanical ventilation settings, such as positive end-expiratory pressure, are changing. The parameters of the model represent cardiac elastances and vessel compliances and resistances. As a second step, these parameters are estimated from 16 experimental datasets. The data come from three pig experiments reproducing intensive care conditions, where a large range of positive end-expiratory pressures was imposed by the mechanical ventilator. The data used for parameter estimation is limited to information available in the intensive care unit, such as stroke volume, central venous pressure and systemic arterial pressure. The model is able to satisfactorily reproduce this experimental data, with mean relative errors ranging from 1 to 26%. The model also reproduces the dynamics of the cardio-vascular and respiratory systems, and their interaction. By looking at the estimated parameter values, one can quantitatively track how the two coupled systems mechanically react to changes in external conditions imposed by the ventilator. This work thus allows real-time, model-based management of ventilator settings.

Optimising mechanical ventilation through model-based methods and automation

Mechanical ventilation (MV) is a core life-support therapy for patients suffering from respiratory failure or acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Respiratory failure is a secondary outcome of a range of injuries and diseases, and results in almost half of all intensive care unit (ICU) patients receiving some form of MV. Funding the increasing demand for ICU is a major issue and MV, in particular, can double the cost per day due to significant patient variability, over-sedation, and the large amount of clinician time required for patient management. Reducing cost in this area requires both a decrease in the average duration of MV by improving care, and a reduction in clinical workload. Both could be achieved by safely automating all or part of MV care via model-based dynamic systems modelling and control methods are ideally suited to address these problems. This paper presents common lung models, and provides a vision for a more automated future and explores predictive capacity of some current models. This vision includes the use of model-based methods to gain real-time insight to patient condition, improve safety through the forward prediction of outcomes to changes in MV, and develop virtual patients for in-silico design and testing of clinical protocols. Finally, the use of dynamic systems models and system identification to guide therapy for improved personalised control of oxygenation and MV therapy in the ICU will be considered. Such methods are a major part of the future of medicine, which includes greater personalisation and predictive capacity to both optimise care and reduce costs. This review thus presents the state of the art in how dynamic systems and control methods can be applied to transform this core area of ICU medicine.

A virtual patient model for mechanical ventilation

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Mechanical ventilation (MV) is a primary therapy for patients with acute respiratory failure. However, poorly selected ventilator settings can cause further lung damage due to heterogeneity of healthy and damaged alveoli. Varying positive-end-expiratory-pressure (PEEP) to a point of minimum elastance is a lung protective ventilator strategy. However, even low levels of PEEP can lead to ventilator induced lung injury for individuals with highly inflamed pulmonary tissue. Hence, models that could accurately predict peak inspiratory pressures after changes to PEEP could improve clinician confidence in attempting potentially beneficial treatment strategies.

METHODS

This study develops and validates a physiologically relevant respiratory model that captures elastance and resistance via basis functions within a well-validated single compartment lung model. The model can be personalised using information available at a low PEEP to predict lung mechanics at a higher PEEP. Proof of concept validation is undertaken with data from four patients and eight recruitment manoeuvre arms.

RESULTS

Results show low error when predicting upwards over the clinically relevant pressure range, with the model able to predict peak inspiratory pressure with less than 10% error over 90% of the range of PEEP changes up to 12 cmH₂O.

CONCLUSIONS

The results provide an in-silico model-based means of predicting clinically relevant responses to changes in MV therapy, which is the foundation of a first virtual patient for MV.

Improving glycemic control in critically ill patients: personalized care to mimic the endocrine pancreas

There is considerable physiological and clinical evidence of harm and increased risk of death associated with dysglycemia in critical care. However, glycemic control (GC) currently leads to increased hypoglycemia, independently associated with a greater risk of death. Indeed, recent evidence suggests GC is difficult to safely and effectively achieve for all patients. In this review, leading experts in the field discuss this evidence and relevant data in diabetology, including the artificial pancreas, and suggest how safe, effective GC can be achieved in critically ill patients in ways seeking to mimic normal islet cell function. The review is structured around the specific clinical hurdles of: understanding the patient’s metabolic state; designing GC to fit clinical practice, safety, efficacy, and workload; and the need for standardized metrics. These aspects are addressed by reviewing relevant recent advances in science and technology. Finally, we provide a set of concise recommendations to advance the safety, quality, consistency, and clinical uptake of GC in critical care. This review thus presents a roadmap toward better, more personalized metabolic care and improved patient outcomes.

Next-generation, personalised, model-based critical care medicine: a state-of-the art review of in silico virtual patient models, methods, and cohorts, and how to validation them

Critical care, like many healthcare areas, is under a dual assault from significantly increasing demographic and economic pressures. Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are highly variable in response to treatment, and increasingly aging populations mean ICUs are under increasing demand and their cohorts are increasingly ill. Equally, patient expectations are growing, while the economic ability to deliver care to all is declining. Better, more productive care is thus the big challenge. One means to that end is personalised care designed to manage the significant inter- and intra-patient variability that makes the ICU patient difficult. Thus, moving from current "one size fits all" protocolised care to adaptive, model-based "one method fits all" personalised care could deliver the required step change in the quality, and simultaneously the productivity and cost, of care. Computer models of human physiology are a unique tool to personalise care, as they can couple clinical data with mathematical methods to create subject-specific models and virtual patients to design new, personalised and more optimal protocols, as well as to guide care in real-time. They rely on identifying time varying patient-specific parameters in the model that capture inter- and intra-patient variability, the difference between patients and the evolution of patient condition. Properly validated, virtual patients represent the real patients, and can be used in silico to test different protocols or interventions, or in real-time to guide care. Hence, the underlying models and methods create the foundation for next generation care, as well as a tool for safely and rapidly developing personalised treatment protocols over large virtual cohorts using virtual trials. This review examines the models and methods used to create virtual patients. Specifically, it presents the models types and structures used and the data required. It then covers how to validate the resulting virtual patients and trials, and how these virtual trials can help design and optimise clinical trial. Links between these models and higher order, more complex physiome models are also discussed. In each section, it explores the progress reported up to date, especially on core ICU therapies in glycemic, circulatory and mechanical ventilation management, where high cost and frequency of occurrence provide a significant opportunity for model-based methods to have measurable clinical and economic impact. The outcomes are readily generalised to other areas of medical care.

Autoregressive Modeling of Drift and Random Error to Characterize a Continuous Intravascular Glucose Monitoring Sensor

BACKGROUND

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices have been effective in managing diabetes and offer potential benefits for use in the intensive care unit (ICU). Use of CGM devices in the ICU has been limited, primarily due to the higher point accuracy errors over currently used traditional intermittent blood glucose (BG) measures. General models of CGM errors, including drift and random errors, are lacking, but would enable better design of protocols to utilize these devices. This article presents an autoregressive (AR) based modeling method that separately characterizes the drift and random noise of the GlySure CGM sensor (GlySure Limited, Oxfordshire, UK).

METHODS

Clinical sensor data (n = 33) and reference measurements were used to generate 2 AR models to describe sensor drift and noise. These models were used to generate 100 Monte Carlo simulations based on reference blood glucose measurements. These were then compared to the original CGM clinical data using mean absolute relative difference (MARD) and a Trend Compass.

RESULTS

The point accuracy MARD was very similar between simulated and clinical data (9.6% vs 9.9%). A Trend Compass was used to assess trend accuracy, and found simulated and clinical sensor profiles were similar (simulated trend index 11.4° vs clinical trend index 10.9°).

CONCLUSION

The model and method accurately represents cohort sensor behavior over patients, providing a general modeling approach to any such sensor by separately characterizing each type of error that can arise in the data. Overall, it enables better protocol design based on accurate expected CGM sensor behavior, as well as enabling the analysis of what level of each type of sensor error would be necessary to obtain desired glycemic control safety and performance with a given protocol.

Continuous Glucose Monitoring Measures Can Be Used for Glycemic Control in the ICU: An In-Silico Study

BACKGROUND

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) technology has become more prevalent in the intensive care unit (ICU), offering potential benefits of increased safety and reduced workload in glycemic control (GC). The drift and higher point accuracy errors of CGM devices over traditional intermittent blood glucose (BG) measures have so far limited their application in the ICU. This study delineates the trade-offs of performance, safety and workload that CGM sensors provide in GC protocols.

METHODS

Clinical data from 236 patients were used for clinically validated virtual trials. A CGM-enabled version of the STAR GC protocol was used to evaluate the use of guard rails and rolling windows. Safety was assessed through percentage of patients who had a severe hypoglycemic episode (BG < 40 mg/dl) as well as percentage of resampled BG < 72 mg/dl. Performance was assessed as percentage of resampled measurements in the 80-126 mg/dl and the 80-144 mg/dl target bands. Workload was measured by number of manual BG measures per day.

RESULTS

CGM-enabled versions of STAR decreased the number of required blood draws by up to 74%, while maintaining performance (76.6% BG measurements in the 80-126 mg/dl range vs 62.8% clinically, 87.9% in the 80-144 mg/dl range vs 83.7% clinically) and maintaining patient safety (1.13% of patients experienced a severe hypoglycemic event vs 0.85% clinically, 1.37% of BG measurements were less than 72 mg/dl vs 0.51% clinically).

CONCLUSION

CGM sensor traces were reproduced in virtual trials to guide GC. Existing GC protocols such as STAR may need to be adjusted only slightly to gain the benefits of the increased temporal measurements of CGM sensors, through which workload may be significantly decreased while maintaining GC performance and safety.

In-Silico Trials for Glucose Control in Hospitalized Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

Although various basal-bolus insulin therapy (BBIT) protocols have been used in the clinical environment, safer and more effective BBIT protocols are required for glucose control in hospitalized patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Modeling approaches could provide an evaluation environment for developing the optimal BBIT protocol prior to clinical trials at low cost and without risk of danger. In this study, an in-silico model was proposed to evaluate subcutaneous BBIT protocols in hospitalized patients with T2D. The proposed model was validated by comparing the BBIT protocol and sliding-scale insulin therapy (SSIT) protocol. The model was utilized for in-silico trials to compare the protocols of adjusting basal-insulin dose (BBIT1) versus adjusting total-daily-insulin dose (BBIT2). The model was also used to evaluate two different initial total-daily-insulin doses for various levels of renal function. The BBIT outcomes were superior to those of SSIT, which is consistent with earlier studies. BBIT2 also outperformed BBIT1, producing a decreased daily mean glucose level and longer time-in-target-range. Moreover, with a standard dose, the overall daily mean glucose levels reached the target range faster than with a reduced-dose for all degrees of renal function. The in-silico studies demonstrated several significant findings, including that the adjustment of total-daily-insulin dose is more effective than changes to basal-insulin dose alone. This research represents a first step toward the eventual development of an advanced model for evaluating various BBIT protocols.

Insulin resistance in early vs late nutrition and complications of sirs in neurosurgical intensive care unit (ICU)

Background:

Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) is a common complication in neurosurgical diseases in Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Because of associated insulin resistance (IR) the ICU is in dilemma in which stage to start the nutrition to patients and what is the amount of Insulin Unit to control the hyperglycemia.

Aim:

to define the IR and to compare IR and amount of insulin among ICU patients in “Mother Theresa” University Hospital Center (MTUHC) in Tirana Albania.

Methods:

154 patients with neurosurgical disease and SIRS complications were randomized in two groups: early nutrition 73 patients (47%) and late nutrition 81 (53%) and compared for a number of variables.

Results:

There was no statistical age and gender difference between the two groups (P>0.05). The amount of insulin units to control the level of glycemia (80-110 mg/dc) was 12.8±7 unit per day in early nutrition and 23.8 ±12.9 units in late nutrition group (p<0.01). No patient in early nutrition group but six (7.4%) patients in late nutrition group developed insulin resistance (p=0.03).

Conclusions:

the IR due to the infection complications is higher among late than early nutrition group. Therefore, we suggest that in neurosurgical ICU it would be better to start the nutrition within 72 hours.

Continuous stroke volume estimation from aortic pressure using zero dimensional cardiovascular model: proof of concept study from porcine experiments

Introduction

Accurate, continuous, left ventricular stroke volume (SV) measurements can convey large amounts of information about patient hemodynamic status and response to therapy. However, direct measurements are highly invasive in clinical practice, and current procedures for estimating SV require specialized devices and significant approximation.

Method

This study investigates the accuracy of a three element Windkessel model combined with an aortic pressure waveform to estimate SV. Aortic pressure is separated into two components capturing; 1) resistance and compliance, 2) characteristic impedance. This separation provides model-element relationships enabling SV to be estimated while requiring only one of the three element values to be known or estimated. Beat-to-beat SV estimation was performed using population-representative optimal values for each model element. This method was validated using measured SV data from porcine experiments (N = 3 female Pietrain pigs, 29–37 kg) in which both ventricular volume and aortic pressure waveforms were measured simultaneously.

Results

The median difference between measured SV from left ventricle (LV) output and estimated SV was 0.6 ml with a 90% range (5^th–95^th percentile) −12.4 ml–14.3 ml. During periods when changes in SV were induced, cross correlations in between estimated and measured SV were above R = 0.65 for all cases.

Conclusion

The method presented demonstrates that the magnitude and trends of SV can be accurately estimated from pressure waveforms alone, without the need for identification of complex physiological metrics where strength of correlations may vary significantly from patient to patient.

Utility of a novel error-stepping method to improve gradient-based parameter identification by increasing the smoothness of the local objective surface: a case-study of pulmonary mechanics

Accurate model parameter identification relies on accurate forward model simulations to guide convergence. However, some forward simulation methodologies lack the precision required to properly define the local objective surface and can cause failed parameter identification. The role of objective surface smoothness in identification of a pulmonary mechanics model was assessed using forward simulation from a novel error-stepping method and a proprietary Runge-Kutta method. The objective surfaces were compared via the identified parameter discrepancy generated in a Monte Carlo simulation and the local smoothness of the objective surfaces they generate. The error-stepping method generated significantly smoother error surfaces in each of the cases tested (p<0.0001) and more accurate model parameter estimates than the Runge-Kutta method in three of the four cases tested (p<0.0001) despite a 75% reduction in computational cost. Of note, parameter discrepancy in most cases was limited to a particular oblique plane, indicating a non-intuitive multi-parameter trade-off was occurring. The error-stepping method consistently improved or equalled the outcomes of the Runge-Kutta time-integration method for forward simulations of the pulmonary mechanics model. This study indicates that accurate parameter identification relies on accurate definition of the local objective function, and that parameter trade-off can occur on oblique planes resulting prematurely halted parameter convergence.

Model-based setting of inspiratory pressure and respiratory rate in pressure-controlled ventilation

Mechanical ventilation carries the risk of ventilator-induced-lung-injury (VILI). To minimize the risk of VILI, ventilator settings should be adapted to the individual patient properties. Mathematical models of respiratory mechanics are able to capture the individual physiological condition and can be used to derive personalized ventilator settings. This paper presents model-based calculations of inspiration pressure (pI), inspiration and expiration time (tI, tE) in pressure-controlled ventilation (PCV) and a retrospective evaluation of its results in a group of mechanically ventilated patients. Incorporating the identified first order model of respiratory mechanics in the basic equation of alveolar ventilation yielded a nonlinear relation between ventilation parameters during PCV. Given this patient-specific relation, optimized settings in terms of minimal pI and adequate tE can be obtained. We then retrospectively analyzed data from 16 ICU patients with mixed pathologies, whose ventilation had been previously optimized by ICU physicians with the goal of minimization of inspiration pressure, and compared the algorithm's 'optimized' settings to the settings that had been chosen by the physicians. The presented algorithm visualizes the patient-specific relations between inspiration pressure and inspiration time. The algorithm's calculated results highly correlate to the physician's ventilation settings with r = 0.975 for the inspiration pressure, and r = 0.902 for the inspiration time. The nonlinear patient-specific relations of ventilation parameters become transparent and support the determination of individualized ventilator settings according to therapeutic goals. Thus, the algorithm is feasible for a variety of ventilated ICU patients and has the potential of improving lung-protective ventilation by minimizing inspiratory pressures and by helping to avoid the build-up of clinically significant intrinsic positive end-expiratory pressure.

Evaluation of a model-based hemodynamic monitoring method in a porcine study of septic shock

INTRODUCTION

The accuracy and clinical applicability of an improved model-based system for tracking hemodynamic changes is assessed in an animal study on septic shock.

METHODS

This study used cardiovascular measurements recorded during a porcine trial studying the efficacy of large-pore hemofiltration for treating septic shock. Four Pietrain pigs were instrumented and induced with septic shock. A subset of the measured data, representing clinically available measurements, was used to identify subject-specific cardiovascular models. These models were then validated against the remaining measurements.

RESULTS

The system accurately matched independent measures of left and right ventricle end diastolic volumes and maximum left and right ventricular pressures to percentage errors less than 20% (except for the 95th percentile error in maximum right ventricular pressure) and all R(2) > 0.76. An average decrease of 42% in systemic resistance, a main cardiovascular consequence of septic shock, was observed 120 minutes after the infusion of the endotoxin, consistent with experimentally measured trends. Moreover, modelled temporal trends in right ventricular end systolic elastance and afterload tracked changes in corresponding experimentally derived metrics.

CONCLUSIONS

These results demonstrate that this model-based method can monitor disease-dependent changes in preload, afterload, and contractility in porcine study of septic shock.

Efficient computation of interacting model systems

Physiological processes in the human body can be predicted by mathematical models. Medical Decision Support Systems (MDSS) might exploit these predictions when optimizing therapy settings. In critically ill patients depending on mechanical ventilation, these predictions should also consider other organ systems of the human body. In a previously presented framework we combine elements of three model families: respiratory mechanics, cardiovascular dynamics and gas exchange. Computing combinations of moderately complex submodels showed to be computationally costly thus limiting the applicability of those model combinations in an MDSS. A decoupled computing approach was therefore developed, which enables individual evaluation of every submodel. Direct model interaction is not possible in separate calculations. Therefore, interface signals need to be substituted by estimates. These estimates are iteratively improved by increasing model detail in every iteration exploiting the hierarchical structure of the implemented model families. Simulation error converged to a minimum after three iterations. Maximum simulation error showed to be 1.44% compared to the original common coupled computing approach. Simulation error was found to be below measurement noise generally found in clinical data. Simulation time was reduced by factor 34 using one iteration and factor 13 using three iterations. Following the proposed calculation scheme moderately complex model combinations seem to be applicable for model based decision support.

Physiological relevance and performance of a minimal lung model: an experimental study in healthy and acute respiratory distress syndrome model piglets

Background

Mechanical ventilation (MV) is the primary form of support for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) patients. However, intra- and inter- patient-variability reduce the efficacy of general protocols. Model-based approaches to guide MV can be patient-specific. A physiological relevant minimal model and its patient-specific performance are tested to see if it meets this objective above.

Methods

Healthy anesthetized piglets weighing 24.0 kg [IQR: 21.0-29.6] underwent a step-wise PEEP increase manoeuvre from 5cmH₂O to 20cmH₂O. They were ventilated under volume control using Engström Care Station (Datex, General Electric, Finland), with pressure, flow and volume profiles recorded. ARDS was then induced using oleic acid. The data were analyzed with a Minimal Model that identifies patient-specific mean threshold opening and closing pressure (TOP and TCP), and standard deviation (SD) of these TOP and TCP distributions. The trial and use of data were approved by the Ethics Committee of the Medical Faculty of the University of Liege, Belgium.

Results and discussions

3 of the 9 healthy piglets developed ARDS, and these data sets were included in this study. Model fitting error during inflation and deflation, in healthy or ARDS state is less than 5.0% across all subjects, indicating that the model captures the fundamental lung mechanics during PEEP increase. Mean TOP was 42.4cmH₂O [IQR: 38.2-44.6] at PEEP = 5cmH₂O and decreased with PEEP to 25.0cmH₂O [IQR: 21.5-27.1] at PEEP = 20cmH₂O. In contrast, TCP sees a reverse trend, increasing from 10.2cmH₂O [IQR: 9.0-10.4] to 19.5cmH₂O [IQR: 19.0-19.7]. Mean TOP increased from average 21.2-37.4cmH₂O to 30.4-55.2cmH₂O between healthy and ARDS subjects, reflecting the higher pressure required to recruit collapsed alveoli. Mean TCP was effectively unchanged.

Conclusion

The minimal model is capable of capturing physiologically relevant TOP, TCP and SD of both healthy and ARDS lungs. The model is able to track disease progression and the response to treatment.

Structural identifiability and practical applicability of an alveolar recruitment model for ARDS patients

Patient-specific mathematical models of respiratory mechanics can offer substantial insight into patient state and pulmonary dynamics that are not directly measurable. Thus, they offer significant potential to evaluate and guide patient-specific lung protective ventilator strategies for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) patients. To assure bedside applicability, the model must be computationally efficient and identifiable from the limited available data, while also capturing dominant dynamics and trends observed in ARDS patients. In this study, an existing static recruitment model is enhanced by considering alveolar distension and implemented in a novel time-continuous dynamic respiratory mechanics model. The model was tested for structural identifiability and a hierarchical gradient descent approach was used to fit the model to low-flow test responses of 12 ARDS patients. Finally, a comprehensive practical identifiability analysis was performed to evaluate the impact of data quality on the model parameters. Identified parameter values were physiologically plausible and very accurately reproduced the measured pressure responses. Structural identifiability of the model was proven, but practical identifiability analysis of the results showed a lack of convexity on the error surface indicating that successful parameter identification is currently not assured in all test sets. Overall, the model presented is physiologically and clinically relevant, captures ARDS dynamics, and uses clinically descriptive parameters. The patient-specific models show the ability to capture pulmonary dynamics directly relevant to patient condition and clinical guidance. These characteristics currently cannot be directly measured or established without such a validated model.

Monitoring in the intensive care

In critical care, the monitoring is essential to the daily care of ICU patients, as the optimization of patient's hemodynamic, ventilation, temperature, nutrition, and metabolism is the key to improve patients' survival. Indeed, the decisive endpoint is the supply of oxygen to tissues according to their metabolic needs in order to fuel mitochondrial respiration and, therefore, life. In this sense, both oxygenation and perfusion must be monitored in the implementation of any resuscitation strategy. The emerging concept has been the enhancement of macrocirculation through sequential optimization of heart function and then judging the adequacy of perfusion/oxygenation on specific parameters in a strategy which was aptly coined “goal directed therapy.” On the other hand, the maintenance of normal temperature is critical and should be regularly monitored. Regarding respiratory monitoring of ventilated ICU patients, it includes serial assessment of gas exchange, of respiratory system mechanics, and of patients' readiness for liberation from invasive positive pressure ventilation. Also, the monitoring of nutritional and metabolic care should allow controlling nutrients delivery, adequation between energy needs and delivery, and blood glucose. The present paper will describe the physiological basis, interpretation of, and clinical use of the major endpoints of perfusion/oxygenation adequacy and of temperature, respiratory, nutritional, and metabolic monitorings.

Pilot study of a model-based approach to blood glucose control in very-low-birthweight neonates

Background

Hyperglycemia often occurs in premature, very low birthweight infants (VLBW) due to immaturity of endogenous regulatory systems and the stress of their condition. Hyperglycemia in neonates has been linked to increased morbidities and mortality and occurs at increasing rates with decreasing birthweight. In this cohort, the emerging use of insulin to manage hyperglycemia has carried a significant risk of hypoglycemia. The efficacy of blood glucose control using a computer metabolic system model to determine insulin infusion rates was assessed in very-low-birth-weight infants.

Methods

Initial short-term 24-hour trials were performed on 8 VLBW infants with hyperglycemia followed by long-term trials of several days performed on 22 infants. Median birthweight was 745 g and 760 g for short-term and long-term trial infants, and median gestational age at birth was 25.6 and 25.4 weeks respectively. Blood glucose control is compared to 21 retrospective patients from the same unit who received insulin infusions determined by sliding scales and clinician intuition. This study was approved by the Upper South A Regional Ethics Committee, New Zealand (ClinicalTrials.gov registration NCT01419873).

Results

Reduction in hyperglycemia towards the target glucose band was achieved safely in all cases during the short-term trials with no hypoglycemic episodes. Lower median blood glucose concentration was achieved during clinical implementation at 6.6 mmol/L (IQR: 5.5 – 8.2 mmol/L, 1,003 measurements), compared to 8.0 mmol/L achieved in similar infants previously (p < 0.01). No significant difference in incidence of hypoglycemia during long-term trials was observed (0.25% vs 0.25%, p = 0.51). Percentage of blood glucose within the 4.0 – 8.0 mmol/L range was increased by 41% compared to the retrospective cohort (68.4% vs 48.4%, p < 0.01).

Conclusions

A computer model that accurately captures the dynamics of neonatal metabolism can provide safe and effective blood glucose control without increasing hypoglycemia.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov registration NCT01419873

Variability of insulin sensitivity during the first 4 days of critical illness: implications for tight glycemic control

Background

Effective tight glycemic control (TGC) can improve outcomes in critical care patients, but it is difficult to achieve consistently. Insulin sensitivity defines the metabolic balance between insulin concentration and insulin-mediated glucose disposal. Hence, variability of insulin sensitivity can cause variable glycemia. This study quantifies and compares the daily evolution of insulin sensitivity level and variability for critical care patients receiving TGC.

Methods

This is a retrospective analysis of data from the SPRINT TGC study involving patients admitted to a mixed medical-surgical ICU between August 2005 and May 2007. Only patients who commenced TGC within 12 hours of ICU admission and spent at least 24 hours on the SPRINT protocol were included (N = 164). Model-based insulin sensitivity (SI) was identified each hour. Absolute level and hour-to-hour percent changes in SI were assessed on cohort and per-patient bases. Levels and variability of SI were compared over time on 24-hour and 6-hour timescales for the first 4 days of ICU stay.

Results

Cohort and per-patient median SI levels increased by 34% and 33% (p < 0.001) between days 1 and 2 of ICU stay. Concomitantly, cohort and per-patient SI variability decreased by 32% and 36% (p < 0.001). For 72% of the cohort, median SI on day 2 was higher than on day 1. The day 1–2 results are the only clear, statistically significant trends across both analyses. Analysis of the first 24 hours using 6-hour blocks of SI data showed that most of the improvement in insulin sensitivity level and variability seen between days 1 and 2 occurred during the first 12–18 hours of day 1.

Conclusions

Critically ill patients have significantly lower and more variable insulin sensitivity on day 1 than later in their ICU stay and particularly during the first 12 hours. This rapid improvement is likely due to the decline of counter-regulatory hormones as the acute phase of critical illness progresses. Clinically, these results suggest that while using TGC protocols with patients during their first few days of ICU stay, extra care should be afforded. Increased measurement frequency, higher target glycemic bands, conservative insulin dosing, and modulation of carbohydrate nutrition should be considered to minimize safely the outcome glycemic variability and reduce the risk of hypoglycemia.

Decision support for optimized blood glucose control and nutrition in a neurotrauma intensive care unit: preliminary results of clinical advice and prediction accuracy of the Glucosafe system

Assessment of glycemic control with model-based decision support ("Glucosafe") in neurotrauma intensive care patients in an ongoing randomized controlled trial with a blood glucose (BG) target of 5-8 mmol/L. Assessment of BG prediction accuracy of the model and assessment of the effect that two potential model extensions would have on prediction accuracy in this trial. In the intervention group insulin infusion rates and nutrition are varied based on Glucosafe's decision support. In the control group, the caloric target is 25-30 kcal/kg per day and insulin is regulated according to department rules. BG concentrations, insulin infusion rates, and feed rates are compared from the data of 12 consecutive patients. BG measurements are predicted retrospectively and the mean relative prediction error is calculated using (1) the current model from the trial, (2) the current model modified by using a BG-dependent variable endogenous insulin appearance rate, (3) the current model modified by a patient-specific carbohydrate absorption factor. BG control was improved by Glucosafe. 76 % of BG measurements in Glucosafe patients were in the 5-8 mmol/L band (Controls: 51 %). BG means (log-normal) ± SD were 7.0 ± 1.19 mmol/L in Glucosafe patients compared to 8.0 ± 1.24 mmol/L in controls (P = 0.05). Mean caloric intake was 93.5 ± 15 % of resting energy expenditure in Glucosafe patients (Controls: 129 ± 29 %). The BG-dependent variable insulin appearance rate had no measurable effect on prediction accuracy. The patient-specific carbohydrate absorption factor improved prediction accuracy significantly (P = 0.001). Glucosafe advice reduces hyperglycemia in neurotrauma intensive care patients. Further parameterization can improve model prediction accuracy.

Interface design and human factors considerations for model-based tight glycemic control in critical care

INTRODUCTION

Tight glycemic control (TGC) has shown benefits but has been difficult to implement. Model-based methods and computerized protocols offer the opportunity to improve TGC quality and compliance. This research presents an interface design to maximize compliance, minimize real and perceived clinical effort, and minimize error based on simple human factors and end user input.

METHOD

The graphical user interface (GUI) design is presented by construction based on a series of simple, short design criteria based on fundamental human factors engineering and includes the use of user feedback and focus groups comprising nursing staff at Christchurch Hospital. The overall design maximizes ease of use and minimizes (unnecessary) interaction and use. It is coupled to a protocol that allows nurse staff to select measurement intervals and thus self-manage workload.

RESULTS

The overall GUI design is presented and requires only one data entry point per intervention cycle. The design and main interface are heavily focused on the nurse end users who are the predominant users, while additional detailed and longitudinal data, which are of interest to doctors guiding overall patient care, are available via tabs. This dichotomy of needs and interests based on the end user's immediate focus and goals shows how interfaces must adapt to offer different information to multiple types of users.

CONCLUSIONS

The interface is designed to minimize real and perceived clinical effort, and ongoing pilot trials have reported high levels of acceptance. The overall design principles, approach, and testing methods are based on fundamental human factors principles designed to reduce user effort and error and are readily generalizable.

Data entry errors and design for model-based tight glycemic control in critical care

INTRODUCTION

Tight glycemic control (TGC) has shown benefits but has been difficult to achieve consistently. Model-based methods and computerized protocols offer the opportunity to improve TGC quality but require human data entry, particularly of blood glucose (BG) values, which can be significantly prone to error. This study presents the design and optimization of data entry methods to minimize error for a computerized and model-based TGC method prior to pilot clinical trials.

METHOD

To minimize data entry error, two tests were carried out to optimize a method with errors less than the 5%-plus reported in other studies. Four initial methods were tested on 40 subjects in random order, and the best two were tested more rigorously on 34 subjects. The tests measured entry speed and accuracy. Errors were reported as corrected and uncorrected errors, with the sum comprising a total error rate. The first set of tests used randomly selected values, while the second set used the same values for all subjects to allow comparisons across users and direct assessment of the magnitude of errors. These research tests were approved by the University of Canterbury Ethics Committee.

RESULTS

The final data entry method tested reduced errors to less than 1-2%, a 60-80% reduction from reported values. The magnitude of errors was clinically significant and was typically by 10.0 mmol/liter or an order of magnitude but only for extreme values of BG < 2.0 mmol/liter or BG > 15.0-20.0 mmol/liter, both of which could be easily corrected with automated checking of extreme values for safety.

CONCLUSIONS

The data entry method selected significantly reduced data entry errors in the limited design tests presented, and is in use on a clinical pilot TGC study. The overall approach and testing methods are easily performed and generalizable to other applications and protocols.

Stochastic targeted (STAR) glycemic control: design, safety, and performance

INTRODUCTION

Tight glycemic control (TGC) has shown benefits but has been difficult to achieve consistently. STAR (Stochastic TARgeted) is a flexible, model-based TGC approach that directly accounts for intra- and interpatient variability with a stochastically derived maximum 5% risk of blood glucose (BG) below 72 mg/dl. This research assesses the safety, efficacy, and clinical burden of a STAR TGC controller modulating both insulin and nutrition inputs in virtual and clinical pilot trials.

METHODS

Clinically validated virtual trials using data from 370 patients in the SPRINT (Specialized Relative Insulin and Nutrition Titration) study were used to design the STAR protocol and test its safety, performance, and required clinical effort prior to clinical pilot trials. Insulin and nutrition interventions were given every 1-3 h as chosen by the nurse to allow them to manage workload. Interventions were designed to maximize the overlap of the model-predicted (5-95(th) percentile) range of BG outcomes with the 72-117 mg/dl band and thus provide a maximum 5% risk of BG <72 mg/dl. Interventions were calculated using clinically validated computer models of human metabolism and its variability in critical illness. Carbohydrate intake (all sources) was selected to maximize intake up to 100% of the American College of Chest Physicians/Society of Critical Care Medicine (ACCP/SCCM) goal (25 kg/kcal/h). Insulin doses were limited (8 U/h maximum), with limited increases based on current rate (0.5-2.0 U/h). Initial clinical pilot trials involved 3 patients covering ~450 h. Approval was granted by the Upper South A Regional Ethics Committee.

RESULTS

Virtual trials indicate that STAR provides similar glycemic control performance to SPRINT with 2-3 h (maximum) measurement intervals. Time in the 72-126 mg/dl and 72-145 mg/dl bands was equivalent for all controllers, indicating that glycemic outcome differences between protocols were only shifted in this range. Safety from hypoglycemia was improved. Importantly, STAR using 2-3 h (maximum) intervention intervals reduced clinical burden up to 30%, which is clinically very significant. Initial clinical trials showed glycemic performance, safety, and management of inter- and intrapatient variability that matched or exceeded the virtual trial results.

CONCLUSIONS

In virtual trials, STAR TGC provided tight control that maximized the likelihood of BG in a clinically specified glycemic band and reduced hypoglycemia with a maximum 5% (or lower) expected risk of light hypoglycemia (BG <72 mg/dl) via model-based management of intra- and interpatient variability. Clinical workload was self-managed and reduced up to 30% compared with SPRINT. Initial pilot clinical trials matched or exceeded these virtual results.

Model-based PEEP optimisation in mechanical ventilation

BACKGROUND

Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) patients require mechanical ventilation (MV) for breathing support. Patient-specific PEEP is encouraged for treating different patients but there is no well established method in optimal PEEP selection.

METHODS

A study of 10 patients diagnosed with ALI/ARDS whom underwent recruitment manoeuvre is carried out. Airway pressure and flow data are used to identify patient-specific constant lung elastance (E lung) and time-variant dynamic lung elastance (E drs) at each PEEP level (increments of 5 cm H2O), for a single compartment linear lung model using integral-based methods. Optimal PEEP is estimated using E lung versus PEEP, Edrs-Pressure curve and E drs Area at minimum elastance (maximum compliance) and the inflection of the curves (diminishing return). Results are compared to clinically selected PEEP values. The trials and use of the data were approved by the New Zealand South Island Regional Ethics Committee.

RESULTS

Median absolute percentage fitting error to the data when estimating time-variant E drs is 0.9% (IQR = 0.5-2.4) and 5.6% [IQR: 1.8-11.3] when estimating constant E lung. Both E lung and E drs decrease with PEEP to a minimum, before rising, and indicating potential over-inflation. Median E drs over all patients across all PEEP values was 32.2 cmH2O/l [IQR: 26.1-46.6], reflecting the heterogeneity of ALI/ARDS patients, and their response to PEEP, that complicates standard approaches to PEEP selection. All E drs-Pressure curves have a clear inflection point before minimum E drs, making PEEP selection straightforward. Model-based selected PEEP using the proposed metrics were higher than clinically selected values in 7/10 cases.

CONCLUSION

Continuous monitoring of the patient-specific E lung and E drs and minimally invasive PEEP titration provide a unique, patient-specific and physiologically relevant metric to optimize PEEP selection with minimal disruption of MV therapy.

Pilot proof of concept clinical trials of Stochastic Targeted (STAR) glycemic control

Introduction

Tight glycemic control (TGC) has shown benefits but has been difficult to achieve consistently. STAR (Stochastic TARgeted) is a flexible, model-based TGC approach directly accounting for intra- and inter- patient variability with a stochastically derived maximum 5% risk of blood glucose (BG) < 4.0 mmol/L. This research assesses the safety, efficacy, and clinical burden of a STAR TGC controller modulating both insulin and nutrition inputs in pilot trials.

Methods

Seven patients covering 660 hours. Insulin and nutrition interventions are given 1-3 hourly as chosen by the nurse to allow them to manage workload. Interventions are calculated by using clinically validated computer models of human metabolism and its variability in critical illness to maximize the overlap of the model-predicted (5-95^th percentile) range of BG outcomes with the 4.0-6.5 mmol/L band while ensuring a maximum 5% risk of BG < 4.0 mmol/L. Carbohydrate intake (all sources) was selected to maximize intake up to 100% of SCCM/ACCP goal (25 kg/kcal/h). Maximum insulin doses and dose changes were limited for safety. Measurements were made with glucometers. Results are compared to those for the SPRINT study, which reduced mortality 25-40% for length of stay ≥3 days. Written informed consent was obtained for all patients, and approval was granted by the NZ Upper South A Regional Ethics Committee.

Results

A total of 402 measurements were taken over 660 hours (~14/day), because nurses showed a preference for 2-hourly measurements. Median [interquartile range, (IQR)] cohort BG was 5.9 mmol/L [5.2-6.8]. Overall, 63.2%, 75.9%, and 89.8% of measurements were in the 4.0-6.5, 4.0-7.0, and 4.0-8.0 mmol/L bands. There were no hypoglycemic events (BG < 2.2 mmol/L), and the minimum BG was 3.5 mmol/L with 4.5% < 4.4 mmol/L. Per patient, the median [IQR] hours of TGC was 92 h [29-113] using 53 [19-62] measurements (median, ~13/day). Median [IQR] results: BG, 5.9 mmol/L [5.8-6.3]; carbohydrate nutrition, 6.8 g/h [5.5-8.7] (~70% goal feed median); insulin, 2.5 U/h [0.1-5.1]. All patients achieved BG < 6.1 mmol/L. These results match or exceed SPRINT and clinical workload is reduced more than 20%.

Conclusions

STAR TGC modulating insulin and nutrition inputs provided very tight control with minimal variability by managing intra- and inter- patient variability. Performance and safety exceed that of SPRINT, which reduced mortality and cost in the Christchurch ICU. The use of glucometers did not appear to impact the quality of TGC. Finally, clinical workload was self-managed and reduced 20% compared with SPRINT.

Clinical detection and monitoring of acute pulmonary embolism: proof of concept of a computer-based method

Background

The diagnostic ability of computer-based methods for cardiovascular system (CVS) monitoring offers significant clinical potential. This research tests the clinical applicability of a newly improved computer-based method for the proof of concept case of tracking changes in important hemodynamic indices due to the influence acute pulmonary embolism (APE).

Methods

Hemodynamic measurements from a porcine model of APE were used to validate the method. Of these measurements, only those that are clinically available or inferable were used in to identify pig-specific computer models of the CVS, including the aortic and pulmonary artery pressure, stroke volume, heart rate, global end diastolic volume, and mitral and tricuspid valve closure times. Changes in the computer-derived parameters were analyzed and compared with experimental metrics and clinical indices to assess the clinical applicability of the technique and its ability to track the disease state.

Results

The subject-specific computer models accurately captured the increase in pulmonary resistance (R_pul), the main cardiovascular consequence of APE, in all five pigs trials, which related well (R² = 0.81) with the experimentally derived pulmonary vascular resistance. An increase in right ventricular contractility was identified, as expected, consistent with known reflex responses to APE. Furthermore, the modeled right ventricular expansion index (the ratio of right to left ventricular end diastolic volumes) closely followed the trends seen in the measured data (R² = 0.92) used for validation, with sharp increases seen in the metric for the two pigs in a near-death state. These results show that the pig-specific models are capable of tracking disease-dependent changes in pulmonary resistance (afterload), right ventricular contractility (inotropy), and ventricular loading (preload) during induced APE. Continuous, accurate estimation of these fundamental metrics of cardiovascular status can help to assist clinicians with diagnosis, monitoring, and therapy-based decisions in an intensive care environment. Furthermore, because the method only uses measurements already available in the ICU, it can be implemented with no added risk to the patient and little extra cost.

Conclusions

This computer-based monitoring method shows potential for real-time, continuous diagnosis and monitoring of acute CVS dysfunction in critically ill patients.