Prognostic significance of APACHE II score and plasma suPAR in Chinese patients with sepsis: a prospective observational study

Association between D-dimer to lymphocyte ratio and in hospital all-cause mortality in elderly patients with sepsis: a cohort of 1123 patients

Background

The D-dimer to lymphocyte ratio (DLR), a novel inflammatory biomarker, had been shown to be related to adverse outcomes in patients with various diseases. However, there was limited research on the relationship between the DLR and adverse outcomes in patients with infectious diseases, particularly those with sepsis. Therefore, this study aimed to explore the association between the DLR and in hospital all-cause mortality in elderly patients with sepsis.

Methods

A total of 1123 patients admitted in intensive care unit (ICU) were included in this study. The patients were categorized into quartiles (Q1-Q4) based on their DLR values. The primary outcomes included hospital mortality and ICU mortality. Kaplan-Meier analysis was conducted to compare all-cause mortality among the four DLR groups. The association between DLR and all-cause mortality in patients with sepsis was further elucidated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and Cox proportional hazards regression analysis.

Results

The study included participants with a median age of 75 (65-84) years, with 707 (63.0%) being male. The rates of hospital mortality and ICU mortality were 33.7% and 31.9%, respectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis highlighted a significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality among patients with elevated DLR values (log-rank p < 0.001). ROC curve analyses revealed that DLR had a stronger ability to predict hospital mortality and ICU mortality in patients with sepsis than D-dimer or Lym. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses revealed DLR as an independent predictor of hospital death [per 1 SD increase in DLR: HR (95% CI): 1.098 (1.020-1.181); p = 0.013] and ICU death [per 1 SD increase in DLR: HR (95% CI): 1.095 (1.017-1.180); p = 0.017] during the hospital stay.

Conclusions

A higher DLR value was associated with hospital and ICU all-cause death in elderly patients with sepsis. This finding demonstrated that the DLR could be a convenient and useful prognostic marker for sepsis prognosis.

Comparison between traditional logistic regression and machine learning for predicting mortality in adult sepsis patients

Background

Sepsis is a life-threatening disease associated with a high mortality rate, emphasizing the need for the exploration of novel models to predict the prognosis of this patient population. This study compared the performance of traditional logistic regression and machine learning models in predicting adult sepsis mortality.

Objective

To develop an optimum model for predicting the mortality of adult sepsis patients based on comparing traditional logistic regression and machine learning methodology.

Methods

Retrospective analysis was conducted on 606 adult sepsis inpatients at our medical center between January 2020 and December 2022, who were randomly divided into training and validation sets in a 7:3 ratio. Traditional logistic regression and machine learning methods were employed to assess the predictive ability of mortality in adult sepsis. Univariate analysis identified independent risk factors for the logistic regression model, while Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression facilitated variable shrinkage and selection for the machine learning model. Among various machine learning models, which included Bagged Tree, Boost Tree, Decision Tree, LightGBM, Naïve Bayes, Nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Random Forest (RF), the one with the maximum area under the curve (AUC) was chosen for model construction. Model validation and comparison with the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) scores were performed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) curves in the validation set.

Results

Univariate analysis was employed to assess 17 variables, namely gender, history of coronary heart disease (CHD), systolic pressure, white blood cell (WBC), neutrophil count (NEUT), lymphocyte count (LYMP), lactic acid, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), red blood cell distribution width (RDW), interleukin-6 (IL-6), prothrombin time (PT), international normalized ratio (INR), fibrinogen (FBI), D-dimer, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), total bilirubin (Tbil), and lung infection. Significant differences (p < 0.05) between the survival and non-survival groups were observed for these variables. Utilizing stepwise regression with the "backward" method, independent risk factors, including systolic pressure, lactic acid, NLR, RDW, IL-6, PT, and Tbil, were identified. These factors were then incorporated into a logistic regression model, chosen based on the minimum Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value (98.65). Machine learning techniques were also applied, and the RF model, demonstrating the maximum Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.999, was selected. LASSO regression, employing the lambda.1SE criteria, identified systolic pressure, lactic acid, NEUT, RDW, IL6, INR, and Tbil as variables for constructing the RF model, validated through ten-fold cross-validation. For model validation and comparison with traditional logistic models, SOFA, and APACHE scoring.

Conclusion

Based on deep machine learning principles, the RF model demonstrates advantages over traditional logistic regression models in predicting adult sepsis prognosis. The RF model holds significant potential for clinical surveillance and interventions to enhance outcomes for sepsis patients.

Efficacy and safety of Dachaihu decoction for sepsis: A randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Sepsis is a critical condition characterized by multi-organ dysfunction (MODS) that presents significant treatment challenges. Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), particularly Dachaihu decoction (DCH), has shown potential in addressing sepsis-related complications.

PURPOSE

To comprehensively evaluate the efficacy and safety of DCH in the treatment of sepsis.

METHODS

Eligible septic patients were randomly assigned to either the DCH or control group in a 1:1 ratio. The intervention course lasted for 3 days. Primary outcomes were 28-day all-cause mortality, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score. Secondary outcomes were assessed through various clinical parameters, including: (1) inflammatory markers; (2) liver function indices; (3) renal function markers; (4) gastrointestinal function metrics and (5) coagulation parameters.

RESULTS

70 septic patients were included in the full analysis set. No significant difference in 28-day all-cause mortality was observed between the control and DCH groups (10 (28.6 %) vs. 9 (25.7 %), p = 0.788). However, DCH significantly reduced SOFA score (-3.0 (interquartile range, IQR, -5.5, -2.0) vs. 0.0 (IQR, -3.5, 0.0), p = 0.025), APACHE II score (-4.0 (IQR, -8.0, -2.0) vs. 0.0 (IQR, -2.0, 2.0), p < 0.001), aspartate transaminase (-12.70 (IQR, -76.15, -3.35) vs. 2.40 (IQR, -8.05, 10.55), p = 0.001), total bilirubin (-2.30 (IQR, -7.45, 3.62) vs. 1.80 (IQR, -2.35, 11.25), p = 0.028), acute gastrointestinal injury grade (R¯, 26.04 vs. 44.96, p < 0.001), gastrointestinal dysfunction score (-5.0 (IQR, -6.0, -2.5) vs. -1.0 (IQR, -2.0, 0.5), p < 0.001), serum intestinal fatty acid-binding protein (-334.5 (IQR, -375.4, -288.8) vs. -34.8 (IQR, -104.2, -34.0), p < 0.001), and increased citrulline levels (6.97 (IQR, 6.76, 7.62) vs. 0.70 (IQR, -1.30, 2.83), p < 0.001), and also inhibiting platelet loss (-2.0 (IQR, -30.5, 45.5) vs. -26.0 (IQR, -65.0, 9.5), p = 0.043). Additionally, DCH demonstrated improvements in inflammation, renal function, and coagulation, with fewer serious adverse events reported in the DCH group (2.44 % vs. 7.32 %, p = 0.305).

CONCLUSION

DCH is both effective and safe in treating septic MODS. Nonetheless, further research is required to refine study designs and enhance outcomes for septic patients.

Predictive value of peripheral blood indicators plus procalcitonin clearance rate for mortality in cancer patients with sepsis

This study investigated the predictive value of combining peripheral blood indicators with procalcitonin clearance rate (PCTc) to assess mortality risk in cancer patients with sepsis, aiming to develop a more sensitive and specific clinical tool. A retrospective analysis was conducted on 393 cancer patients with sepsis admitted to South China Hospital of Shenzhen University from January 2019 to January 2024. Collected data included clinical demographics, laboratory indicators such as white blood cell count, neutrophil count (NEUT), platelet count (PLT), lymphocyte count (LYC), C-reactive protein, procalcitonin (PCT), alanine aminotransferase, and the ratio of arterial oxygen partial pressure to inspired oxygen fraction, as well as functional scores like Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment. Multivariate logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curves assessed the predictive ability of these factors for 28-day survival. Results showed significantly higher NEUT (P<0.001) and lower PLT and LYC (P<0.001) in the death group, while APACHE II score (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.776) and PCT 24h (AUC = 0.723) demonstrated strong predictive value for mortality risk. The joint projection model's AUC reached 0.966, significantly outperforming individual indicators, indicating that combining multiple indicators offers a more accurate prediction of survival versus mortality risk. Additionally, 24h LCR and 24h PCTc were notably lower in the death group compared to the survival group, reinforcing the advantage of combined indicators for prognosis. Overall, using both peripheral blood indicators and PCTc significantly improves the accuracy of mortality risk assessment in cancer patients with sepsis, enhancing prognostic evaluation and supporting optimized clinical decision-making.

Prognostic impact of postoperative management by an intensive care unit intensivist after colonic perforation

PURPOSE

Postoperative management for colonic perforation is an important prognostic factor, but whether intensivists perform postoperative management varies between institutions.

METHODS

We investigated 291 patients with colonic perforation between 2018 and 2022. Patients were divided into those managed by an intensivists (ICU group; n = 40) and those not managed by an intensivists (non-ICU group; n = 251). We examined how management by intensivists affected prognosis using inverse probability weighting, and clarified which patients should consult an intensivists.

RESULTS

The ICU group showed a significantly higher shock index (1.15 vs. 0.75, p < 0.01), higher APACHE II score (16.0 vs. 10.0, p < 0.001), and more severe comorbidities (Charlson Comorbidity Index 5.0 vs. 1.0, p < 0.001) and general peritonitis (85% vs. 38%, p < 0.001). Adjusted risk differences were - 24% (-34% to -13%) for 6-month mortality rate. Six-month mortality was improved by ICU intensivist management in patients with general peritonitis (risk difference - 22.8; 95% confidence interval - 34 to -11); APACHE II score ≥20 (-0.79; -1.06 to -0.52); lactate ≥1.6 (-0.38; -0.57 to -0.29); shock index ≥1.0 (-40.01; -54.87 to -25.16); and catecholamine index ≥10 (-41.16; -58.13 to -24.19).

CONCLUSIONS

Intensivists were involved in treating patients in poor general condition, but prognosis was extremely good. Appropriate case consultation with intensivists is important.

Improving prognostication of pneumonia among elderly patients: usefulness of suPAR

PURPOSE

Elderly patients with suspected pneumonia represent a significant proportion of hospital admissions, which is a prognostic challenge for physicians. Our research aimed to assess the prognosis of patients with pneumonia using soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) combined with clinical data.

METHODS

In a prospective observational study including 164 patients > 65 years (mean age 84.2 (+/-7.64) years) who were hospitalized for a suspicion of pneumonia, suPAR was assessed for each patient, as was the prognosis score (PSI, CURB65) and inflammatory biomarkers (C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, white blood cells). The prognostic value of the suPAR for 30-day mortality was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses. Optimal cut-offs with corresponding sensitivity (SE) and specificity (SP) were determined using the Youden index.

RESULTS

A suPAR > 5.1 ng/mL was predictive of 30-day mortality with a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 40.4%. A combination of the following parameters exhibited an SE of 100% (95% CI, 100-100) for an SP value of 64.9% (95% CI, 57.6-72.2) when at least two of them were above or below the following cut-off threshold values: suPAR > 9.8 ng/mL, BMI < 29.3 kg/m2 and PSI > 106.5.

CONCLUSION

The suPAR seems to be a promising biomarker that can be combined with the PSI and BMI to improve the prognosis of pneumonia among elderly patients. Prospective studies with larger populations are needed to confirm whether this new approach can improve patient outcomes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02467192), 27th may 2015.

Advances in sepsis biomarkers

Sepsis, a dysregulated host immune response to an infectious agent, significantly increases morbidity and mortality for hospitalized patients worldwide. This chapter reviews (1) the basic principles of infectious diseases, pathophysiology and current definition of sepsis, (2) established sepsis biomarkers such lactate, procalcitonin and C-reactive protein, (3) novel, newly regulatory-cleared/approved biomarkers, such as assays that evaluate white blood cell properties and immune response molecules, and (4) emerging biomarkers and biomarker panels to highlight future directions and opportunities in the diagnosis and management of sepsis.

Association Between Plasma Levels of Monocyte Chemoattractant Protein-1 (MCP-1) and 28-Day Mortality in Elderly Patients with Sepsis: A Retrospective Single-Center Study

BACKGROUND Previous studies have identified an association between plasma levels of the inflammatory cytokine, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1), and outcomes for patients with sepsis. This retrospective single-center study assessed the association between plasma levels of MCP-1 and 28-day mortality in 136 patients ≥65 years diagnosed with sepsis between October 2020 and October 2021. MATERIAL AND METHODS The objective was to compare and analyze the parameters in the survival group (n=35) and the 28-day mortality group (n=101), including Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), plasma MCP-1, and laboratory test results. Plasma MCP-1 was quantified by cytokine test kit (LKTM014B, R&D). Statistical analysis was carried out in SPSS 26.0 and MedCalc 92.1.0 software. RESULTS The 28-day mortality group exhibited higher levels of SOFA, APACHEII, and plasma MCP-1 (all P<0.001), as well as lower levels of albumin, compared to the survival group (P<0.05). The logistic regression analysis findings indicated that SOFA, APACHEII, plasma MCP-1, and SBP are all independent risk factors for 28-day mortality. The area under the curve for SOFA, APACHEII, MCP-1, MCP-1+ SOFA, and MCP-1+APACHEII were 0.845, 0.744, 0.712, 0.879, and 0.822, respectively. MCP-1+SOFA exhibited higher sensitivity than SOFA alone. Furthermore, the assessment values of plasma MCP-1 combined with SOFA were superior to those of APACHE II or plasma MCP-1 (Z₁=2.661, Z₂=3.272, both P<0.01). CONCLUSIONS The findings from this study from a single center support those of previous studies that increased plasma levels of MCP-1 are significantly associated with 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis.

Predictive Value of Heart-Type Fatty Acid-Binding Protein for Mortality Risk in Critically Ill Patients

Objective

Our study assessed the predictive value of heart-type fatty acid-binding protein (H-FABP) for critically ill patients.

Methods

150 critically ill patients admitted to the emergency department of Beijing Chaoyang Hospital, Capital Medical University, were included in our study from August 2021 to April 2022. Serum H-FABP, procalcitonin (PCT), lactate (LAC), and other markers were determined within 1 h after admission. The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score and the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) were calculated. The independent predictors of 28-day mortality in critically ill patients were analyzed by logistic regression, and the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was used to analyze the predictive value for 28-day mortality in critically ill patients.

Results

Age, APACHE II, SOFA, GCS, LAC, H-FABP, IL-6, Scr, and D-dimer were significantly different in the nonsurvivor vs. survivor groups (P < 0.05), with H-FABP correlating with cTNI, Scr, PCT, and SOFA scores (P < 0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that H-FABP, APACHE II, LAC, and age were independent predictors for 28-day mortality in critically ill patients (P < 0.05). The AUC of ROC curve in H-FABP was 0.709 (sensitivity 72.9%, specificity 66.1%, and cut-off 4.35), which was slightly lower than AUC of ROC curve in LAC (AUC 0.750, sensitivity 58.3%, specificity 76.1%, and cut-off 1.95) and APACHE II (AUC 0.731, sensitivity 77.1%, specificity 58.7%, and cut-off 12.5). However, statistically, there was no difference in the diagnostic value of H-FABP compared with the other two indicators (Z ₁ = 0.669, P = 0.504; Z ₂ = 0.383, P = 0.702). But H-FABP (72.9%) has higher sensitivity than LAC (58.3%). The combined evaluation of H-FABP+APACHE II score (AUC 0.801, sensitivity 71.7%, and specificity 78.2%; Z = 2.612, P = 0.009) had better diagnostic value than H-FABP alone and had high sensitivity (71.7%) and specificity (78.2%).

Conclusion

H-FABP, LAC, APACHE II, and age can be used as independent risk factors affecting the prognosis of critically ill patients. Compared with using the above indicators alone, the H-FABP+APACHE II has a high diagnostic value, and the early and rapid evaluation is particularly important for the adjustment of treatment plans and prognosis.

Soluble Urokinase-Type Plasminogen Activator Receptor Levels as a Predictor of Kidney Replacement Therapy in Septic Patients with Acute Kidney Injury: An Observational Study

The soluble urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) is involved in the pathogenesis of acute kidney injury (AKI). Our goal was to establish the optimal suPAR cut-off point for predicting the need for kidney replacement therapy (KRT) use in sepsis patients and to analyze survival rates based on the suPAR level, AKI diagnosis, and the requirement for KRT. In total, 51 septic patients were included (82% septic shock; 96% mechanically ventilated, 35% KRT). Patients were stratified according to the AKI diagnosis and the need for KRT into three groups: AKI(+)/KRT(+), AKI(+)/KRT(−), and AKI(−)/KRT(−). A control group (N = 20) without sepsis and kidney failure was included. Sepsis patients had higher levels of the suPAR than control (13.01 vs. 4.05 ng/mL, p < 0.001). On ICU admission, the suPAR level was significantly higher in the AKI(+)/KRT(+) group than in the AKI(+)/KRT(−) and AKI(−)/KRT(−) groups (18.5 vs. 10.6 and 9.5 ng/mL, respectively; p = 0.001). The optimal suPAR cut-off point for predicting the need for KRT was established at 10.422 ng/mL (area under the curve 0.801, sensitivity 0.889, specificity 0.636). Moreover, patients AKI(+)/KRT(+) had the lowest probability of survival compared to patients AKI(+)/KRT(−) and AKI(−)/KRT(−) (p = 0.0003). The results indicate that the suPAR measurements may constitute an important element in the diagnosis of a patient with sepsis.

Clinical characteristics and prognosis in patients with urosepsis from intensive care unit in Shanghai, China: a retrospective bi-centre study

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to retrospectively analyze clinical characteristics and prognostic risk factors of urosepsis patients admitted to two intensive care units in Shanghai, China.

METHODS

Clinical data from patients diagnosed with urosepsis were retrospectively retrieved and analyzed from ICU in two regional medical centers from January 2015 to December 2019.

RESULTS

Two hundred two patients were included in the subsequent analysis eventually, with an average age of 72.02 ± 9.66 years, 79.21% of the patients were female and the mortality rate of 15.84%.The proportion of patients with chronic underlying diseases such as diabetes and hypertension was relatively high (56.44, 49.50%, respectively), and the incidence of shock was also high (41.58%) correspondingly. The most common pathogen isolated was Escherichia coli (79.20%), of which the extended-spectrumβ-lactamases (ESBLs)(+) accounted for 42.57%. In multivariate analysis, the strongest predictors for death were mechanical ventilation (OR 7.260, 95% CI 2.200-23.963; P = 0.001),chronic kidney disease (CKD) (OR 5.140, 95% CI 1.596-16.550; P = 0.006), APACHE II score (OR 1.321, 95% CI 1.184-1.473; P < 0.001) and lactate (OR 1.258, 95% CI 1.037-1.527; P = 0.020). Both APACHE II score and lactate had the ideal predictive value, with the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.858 and 0.805 respectively.

CONCLUSION

The patients with urosepsis were characterized by a higher proportion of female, older age, more percentage of comorbidities in this region, and patients with ESBLs (+) Escherichia coli infection were more prone to shock. Mechanical ventilation, comorbidity with CKD, APACHE II score and lactate were independent risk factors for death in urosepsis patient, but lactate level and APACHE II score had better predictive value for prognosis.

Factors Influencing the Prognosis of Patients with Intra-Abdominal Infection and Its Value in Assessing Prognosis

Purpose

To explore the distribution of pathogenic bacteria in patients with intra-abdominal infection, to clarify the independent factors that affect the prognosis of patients with intra-abdominal infection and its evaluation value for prognosis.

Patients and Methods

The pathogens, underlying diseases, and related clinical data of patients with intra-abdominal infection from January 2012 to December 2019 in our hospital were retrospectively collected and the APACHE II score was calculated. The patients were divided into survival group and death group according to the prognosis, and the index between the two groups was compared. Spearman correlation analysis was used to evaluate the correlation between each index and prognosis, multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to screen the independent prognostic factors.

Results

Spearman correlation analysis showed that ALB level was negatively correlated with prognosis, age and APACHE II score were positively correlated with prognosis. Logistic regression analysis showed that age, ALB level, and APACHE II score were independent prognostic factors. The formula of age combined ALB level and APACHE II score was Y = X1-3.6X2 + 6.5X3 (X1 was the age, X2 was the ALB level and X3 was the APACHE II score), Y was positively correlated with poor prognosis, and the optimal cutoff value was Y = 40.96.

Conclusion

Age, ALB level, and APACHE II score are independent factors that influencing the prognosis of patients with intra-abdominal infection, and the combination of age, ALB level, and APACHE II score can better assess the prognosis of patients with intra-abdominal infection.

Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) predicts critical illness and kidney failure in patients admitted to the intensive care unit

Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) is an inflammatory biomarker and risk factor for kidney diseases, with a potential prognostic value in critically ill patients. In this monocentric prospective study, we measured plasma suPAR levels immediately after ICU admission in unselected 237 consecutive patients using a turbidimetric assay. Primary objective was the prognostic value for ICU- and 28-day mortality. Secondary objectives were association with sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, coagulation and inflammation markers, AKI-3 and differences in prespecified subgroups. Median suPAR levels were 8.0 ng/mL [25th-75th percentile 4.3-14.4], with lower levels in ICU survivors than non-survivors (6.7 vs. 11.6 ng/mL, p < 0.001). SuPAR levels were higher in COVID-19, kidney disease, moderate-to-severe liver disease, and sepsis. ICU mortality increased by an odds ratio (OR) of 4.7 in patients with the highest compared to lowest quartile suPAR. Kaplan-Meier overall survival estimates at 3 months were 63% and 49%, in patients with suPAR below/above 12 ng/mL (log-rank p = 0.027). Due to an observed interaction between SOFA score and suPAR, we performed a random forest method identifying cutoffs. ICU mortality was 53%, 17% and 2% in patients with a SOFA score > 7, SOFA ≤ 7 & suPAR > 8 ng/mL, and SOFA score ≤ 7 & suPAR ≤ 8 ng/mL, respectively. suPAR was a significant predictor for AKI-3 occurrence (OR per doubling 1.89, 95% CI: 1.20-2.98; p = 0.006). suPAR levels at ICU admission may offer additional value for risk stratification especially in ICU patients with moderate organ dysfunction as reflected by a SOFA score ≤ 7.

Microfluidics for sepsis early diagnosis and prognosis: a review of recent methods

Sepsis is a complex disorder of immune system response to infections that can be caused by a wide range of clinical contexts. Traditional methods for sepsis detection include molecular diagnosis, biomarkers either based on protein concentration or cell surface expression, and microbiological cultures. Development of point-of-care (POC) instruments, which can provide high accuracy and consume less time, is in unprecedented demand. Within the past few years, applications of microfluidic systems for sepsis detection have achieved excellent performance. In this review, we discuss the most recent microfluidic applications specifically in sepsis detection, and propose their advantages and disadvantages. We also present a comprehensive review of other traditional and current sepsis diagnosis methods to obtain a general understanding of the present conditions, which can hopefully direct the development of a new sepsis roadmap.

Changes in plasma HDL and its subcomponents HDL2b and HDL3 regulate inflammatory response by modulating SOCS1 signaling to affect severity degree and prognosis of sepsis

OBJECTIVES

To explore if SOCS1 is regulated by plasma HDL and its subcomponents HDL2b and HDL3 to affect inflammatory reaction then to influence the severity degree and prognosis of sepsis.

METHODS

One hundred sepsis patients in ICU and 85 normal control persons from October 2018 to October 2019 in our hospital were enrolled. Adult male C57BL/6 mice were used to establish sepsis model by CLP method. HDL, CRP, and WBC count of human were measured using an auto-analyzer. Plasma HDL, IL-1β, and TNF-α proteins levels of mice were measured with ELISA. Microfluidic chip was used for plasma HDL2b and HDL3 detections. SOCS1 in liver and spleen of mice were measured by qRT-PCR. The relationship between plasma HDL//HDL2b and inflammatory indices/SOCS1 in liver/spleen was analyzed with spearman correlation coefficient method. The sepsis patients/mice were divided into non-survival and survival groups. The sepsis patients were divided into severe and mild sepsis patients based on the SOFA score or divided into high and low score groups according to the APACHE II score. The sepsis mice were divided into high and low score group based on the modified sepsis severity score criterion.

RESULTS

Plasma HDL and HDL2b levels were significantly declined (P < 0.01), while HDL3 was normal in both sepsis patients and mice (P > 0.05). Plasma HDL and HDL2b were negatively associated with the serum CRP concentration and positively correlated with the prognosis and severity in sepsis patients (P < 0.05). Moreover, the downregulated plasma HDL but not HDL2b was negatively related to increased SOCS1 mRNA levels in liver and spleen of mice, which were positively connected with TNF-α and IL-1β protein levels (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Plasma HDL is downregulated in sepsis, which may facilitate inflammatory reaction then activate the SOCS1 signaling to regulate the severity and affect prognosis of sepsis. The decline of plasma HDL2b content could aggravate the severity and poor prognosis of sepsis through facilitating inflammatory reaction. The plasma HDL3 is not involved in sepsis. The more and further explorations may be needed.

Assessment of fluid resuscitation on time to hemodynamic stability in obese patients with septic shock

PURPOSE

Assess time to hemodynamic stability (HDS) in obese patients with septic shock who received <30 vs. ≥30 ml/kg of initial fluid resuscitation based on actual body weight (ABW).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Multicenter, retrospective, cohort analysis of 322 patients.

RESULTS

Overall 216 (67%) patients received <30 ml/kg of initial fluid resuscitation. Initial fluid received was lower in the <30 ml/kg vs. ≥30 ml/kg group (16 vs. 37 ml/kg). The ≥30 ml/kg group had shorter time to HDS (multivariable p = 0.038) and lower riskof in-hospital death (multivariable p = 0.038). An exploratory subgroup analysis (n = 227) was performed, classifying patients by dosing strategy [ABW, adjusted body weight (AdjBW), ideal body weight (IBW)] based on fluid received at 3 h divided by 30 ml/kg. ABW dosed patients had a shorter time to HDS (multivariable p = 0.013) and lower risk of in-hospital death (multivariable p = 0.008) vs. IBW. Similar outcomes were observed between ABW vs. AdjBW.

CONCLUSIONS

Obese patients given ≥30 ml/kg based on ABW had a shorter time to HDS and a lower risk of in-hospital death. Exploratory results suggest improved outcomes resuscitating by ABW vs. IBW; ABW showed no strong benefit over AdjBW. Further prospective studies are needed to confirm the optimal fluid dosing in obese patients.

Haemogram-Derived Indices for Screening and Prognostication in Critically Ill Septic Shock Patients: A Case-Control Study

This study aimed (1) to assess the diagnostic accuracy of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte (PLR), monocyte-to-lymphocyte (MLR) and platelet count-to-mean platelet volume (PLT/MPV) ratios in predicting septic shock in patients on admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and (2) to compare it with the role of C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT) and lactate level. We also sought (3) to verify whether the indices could be useful in ICU mortality prediction and (4) to compare them with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores. This retrospective study covered 138 patients, including 61 subjects with multi-organ failure due to septic shock (study group) and 77 sex- and age-matched controls. Septic patients had significantly higher NLR (p < 0.01) and NLR predicted septic shock occurrence (area under the ROC curve, AUROC = 0.66; 95% CI 0.58-0.74). PLR, MLR and PLT/MPV were impractical in sepsis prediction. Combination of CRP with NLR improved septic shock prediction (AUROC = 0.88; 95% CI 0.81-0.93). All indices failed to predict ICU mortality. APACHE II and SAPS II predicted mortality with AUROC = 0.68; 95% CI 0.54-0.78 and AUROC = 0.7; 95% CI 0.57-0.81, respectively. High NLR may be useful to identify patients with multi-organ failure due to septic shock but should be interpreted along with CRP or PCT. The investigated indices are not related with mortality in this specific clinical setting.

Prediction of mortality in adult patients with sepsis using six biomarkers: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Angiopoietin-1 (Ang-1) and 2 (Ang-2), high mobility group box 1 (HMGB1), soluble receptor for advanced glycation endproducts (sRAGE), soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 1 (sTREM1), and soluble urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) have shown promising results for predicting all-cause mortality in critical care patients. The aim of our systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the prognostic value of these biomarkers for mortality in adult patients with sepsis.

Methods

A systematic literature search of the MEDLINE, PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library databases, for articles in English published from 01.01.1990 onwards, was conducted. The systematic review focused exclusively on observational studies of adult patients with sepsis, any randomized trials were excluded. For the meta-analysis, only studies which provide biomarker concentrations within 24 h of admission in sepsis survivors and nonsurvivors were included. Results are presented as pooled mean differences (MD) between nonsurvivors and survivors with 95% confidence interval for each of the six biomarkers. Studies not included in the quantitative analysis were narratively summarized. The risk of bias was assessed in all included studies using the Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool.

Results

The systematic literature search retrieved 2285 articles. In total, we included 44 studies in the qualitative analysis, of which 28 were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled mean differences in biomarker concentration (nonsurvivors − survivors), measured at onset of sepsis, are listed as follows: (1) Ang-1: − 2.9 ng/ml (95% CI − 4.1 to − 1.7, p < 0.01); (2) Ang-2: 4.9 ng/ml (95% CI 2.6 to 7.1, p < 0.01); (3) HMGB1: 1.2 ng/ml (95% CI 0.0 to 2.4, p = 0.05); (4) sRAGE: 1003 pg/ml (95% CI 628 to 1377, p < 0.01); (5) sTREM-1: 87 pg/ml (95% CI 2 to 171, p = 0.04); (6) suPAR: 5.2 ng/ml (95% CI 4.5 to 6.0, p < 0.01).

Conclusions

Ang-1, Ang-2, and suPAR provide beneficial prognostic information about mortality in adult patients with sepsis. The further development of standardized assays and the assessment of their performance when included in panels with other biomarkers may be recommended.

Trial registration This study was recorded on PROSPERO, prospective register of systematic reviews, under the registration ID: CRD42018081226

An elevated glycemic gap predicts adverse outcomes in diabetic patients with necrotizing fasciitis

Background

Diabetes is the most common comorbidity of necrotizing fasciitis (NF), but the effect of stress-induced hyperglycemia (SIH) on diabetic patients with NF has never been investigated. The aim of this study was to assess whether SIH, as determined by the glycemic gap between admission glucose levels and A_1C-derived average glucose levels, predicts adverse outcomes in diabetic patients hospitalized with NF.

Methods

We retrospectively reviewed the glycemic gap and clinical outcomes in 252 diabetic patients hospitalized due to NF from 2011 to 2018 in a single medical center in Taiwan. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to analyze the optimal cutoff values for predicting adverse outcomes. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were employed to identify significant predictors of adverse outcomes.

Results

In total, 194 diabetic NF patients were enrolled. Compared with patients without adverse outcomes, patients with adverse outcomes had significantly higher glycemic gaps, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II scores and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels; lower albumin and hemoglobin levels; greater incidence of limb loss; and longer hospital and intensive care unit stays. The glycemic gap positively correlates with the laboratory risk indicator for NF scores, APACHE II scores and CRP levels. A glycemic gap of 146 mg/dL was the optimal cutoff value for predicting adverse outcomes using the ROC curve. Compared with patients with glycemic gaps ≤146 mg/dL, those with glycemic gaps >146 mg/dL had higher APACHE II scores and incidence rates of adverse outcomes, especially bacteremia and acute kidney injury. Multivariate analysis revealed that a glycemic gap >146 mg/dL and APACHE II score >15 were independent predictors of adverse outcomes, while the presence of hyperglycemia at admission was not.

Conclusions

An elevated glycemic gap was significantly independently associated with adverse outcomes in diabetic NF patients. Further prospective studies are warranted to validate the role of the glycemic gap in NF patients with diabetes.

Correlations of Acute Cerebral Hemorrhage Complicated with Stress Ulcer Bleeding with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II Score, Endothelin (ET), Tumor Necrosis Factor-alpha (TNF-α), and Blood Lipids

Background

This study investigated the correlations between acute cerebral hemorrhage complicated with stress ulcer bleeding and corresponding indexes, including the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, vascular endothelin-1 (ET-1), tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), and blood lipid factors.

Material/Methods

A total of 53 patients with acute cerebral hemorrhage complicated with stress ulcer bleeding were selected as the observation group and 50 patients with simple acute cerebral hemorrhage were selected as the control group. The APACHE II score and the levels of ET-1, TNF-α, and blood lipid factors, including total cholesterol (TC), triglyceride (TG), high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C), and malondialdehyde (MDA), were detected and the correlations of were analyzed between the 2 groups of patients.

Results

The blood lipid index TG, APACHE II score, ET-1, TNF-α, renal function indexes [blood urea nitrogen (BUN) and creatinine (Cr)], mortality rate, hemoglobin, and MDA in the observation group were significantly higher than those in the control group, while HDL-C in the observation group was obviously lower than in the control group (p<0.05). The APACHEII score had positive correlations with TG and TNF-α (r=0.8960, r=0.8563, respectively), while it was negatively correlated with TC, HDL-C, LDL-C, and ET-1 (r=−0.909, r=−0.9292, r=−0.8543, and r=−0.8899, respectively) (p<0.001 in all comparisons). APACHEII score, BUN, and Cr were all risk factors.

Conclusions

Stress ulcer in patients with acute cerebral hemorrhage is associated with blood lipid changes and inflammation, which provides clues for the diagnosis and treatment of acute cerebral hemorrhage.

Performance of critical care prognostic scoring systems in low and middle-income countries: a systematic review

Background

Prognostic models—used in critical care medicine for mortality predictions, for benchmarking and for illness stratification in clinical trials—have been validated predominantly in high-income countries. These results may not be reproducible in low or middle-income countries (LMICs), not only because of different case-mix characteristics but also because of missing predictor variables. The study objective was to systematically review literature on the use of critical care prognostic models in LMICs and assess their ability to discriminate between survivors and non-survivors at hospital discharge of those admitted to intensive care units (ICUs), their calibration, their accuracy, and the manner in which missing values were handled.

Methods

The PubMed database was searched in March 2017 to identify research articles reporting the use and performance of prognostic models in the evaluation of mortality in ICUs in LMICs. Studies carried out in ICUs in high-income countries or paediatric ICUs and studies that evaluated disease-specific scoring systems, were limited to a specific disease or single prognostic factor, were published only as abstracts, editorials, letters and systematic and narrative reviews or were not in English were excluded.

Results

Of the 2233 studies retrieved, 473 were searched and 50 articles reporting 119 models were included. Five articles described the development and evaluation of new models, whereas 114 articles externally validated Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation, the Simplified Acute Physiology Score and Mortality Probability Models or versions thereof. Missing values were only described in 34% of studies; exclusion and or imputation by normal values were used. Discrimination, calibration and accuracy were reported in 94.0%, 72.4% and 25% respectively. Good discrimination and calibration were reported in 88.9% and 58.3% respectively. However, only 10 evaluations that reported excellent discrimination also reported good calibration. Generalisability of the findings was limited by variability of inclusion and exclusion criteria, unavailability of post-ICU outcomes and missing value handling.

Conclusions

Robust interpretations regarding the applicability of prognostic models are currently hampered by poor adherence to reporting guidelines, especially when reporting missing value handling. Performance of mortality risk prediction models in LMIC ICUs is at best moderate, especially with limitations in calibration. This necessitates continued efforts to develop and validate LMIC models with readily available prognostic variables, perhaps aided by medical registries.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13054-017-1930-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Correlation of plasma suPAR expression with disease risk and severity as well as prognosis of sepsis-induced acute respiratory distress syndrome

The aim of this study was to investigate the association of plasma suPAR expression with disease risk and severity as well as prognosis of sepsis-induced acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). 162 ARDS patients were consecutively enrolled in this study and categorized into sepsis-induced ARDS group (N=104) or non-sepsis-induced ARDS group (N=58) according to the cause of ARDS. Disease severity was evaluated as mild, moderate and severe disease based on lowest PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II as well as Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores were calculated. Serum procalcitonin (PCT) was detected by electro chemiluminescence immunoassay, and plasma suPAR was determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Sepsis-induced ARDS presented with elevated plasma suPAR level (P<0.001), serum PCT level (P<0.001), APACHE II score (P<0.001) and SOFA score (P<0.001) compared with patients with non-sepsis-induced ARDS. Plasma suPAR level was positively correlated with disease severity (P<0.001), PCT level (P<0.001), APACHE II score (P<0.001) and SOFA score (P<0.001). Among 104 sepsis-induced ARDS patients, 73 cases survived (survival group) while other 31 cased dies (non-survival group). Plasma suPAR level was greatly increased in non-survival group compared to survival group (P<0.001). Furthermore, ROC curve analysis illustrated that suPAR level presented good diagnostic value in predicting mortality with AUC 0.81 (95% CI: 0.73-0.89). Plasma suPAR is increased in sepsis-induced ARDS patients, and it correlates with higher disease severity and unfavorable prognosis.