Does group-based trajectory modeling estimate spurious trajectories?

Combined blood pressure and heart rate trajectories are associated with prognosis in critically ill patients with acute aortic dissection: A group-based multi-trajectory analysis

Background

Managing systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and heart rate (HR) is pivotal in acute aortic dissection (AAD) care. However, no prior studies have jointly analyzed the trajectories of these parameters. This research aimed to characterize their joint longitudinal trajectories and investigate the influence on AAD prognosis.

Methods

We included AAD patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV database. Using group-based multi-trajectory modeling (GBMTM), we identified combined trajectories of SBP, DBP, and HR within the initial 24 h of intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Cox proportional hazard regression, log-binomial regression, and logistic regression were employed to assess the association between trajectory groups and mortality outcomes.

Results

Data from 337 patients were analyzed. GBMTM identified five combined trajectory groups. Group 1 featured rapidly declining SBP and DBP with high pulse pressure and low HR; Group 2 showed high to moderate SBP with slight rebound and persistently low HR; Group 3 displayed persistently moderate BP and HR; Group 4 was characterized by moderate blood pressure with persistently high HR; and Group 5 had high to moderate SBP with slight rebound, high but gradually declining DBP, and slightly high HR. Group 3 demonstrated a lower risk of mortality, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.32 (95 % CI, 0.14-0.74), and the adjusted relative risks for in-hospital, 30-day, and 1-year mortalities were 0.37 (95 % CI, 0.15-0.87), 0.25 (95 % CI, 0.10-0.62), and 0.41 (95 % CI, 0.22-0.79), respectively. The time-independent C-index curve demonstrated that the multi-trajectory groups had higher C-index values than any univariate trajectory groups or admission values of SBP, DBP, and HR.

Conclusions

Utilization of GBMTM can yield data-driven insights to identify distinct subphenotypes in AAD patients. The combined trajectories of SBP, DBP, and HR within 24 h of ICU admission significantly influenced the mortality rate.

Association between hemoglobin trajectories and the incidence of dementia in a cohort of females aged 55-79 years

PURPOSE

To assess the association between pattern changes in hemoglobin levels over time and the incidence of dementia using trajectories in females aged 55-79 years.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using females of aged 55-79 years from the National Health Insurance Service National Health Screening Cohort in Korea. To identify hemoglobin trajectories over eight years (2002-2009), we performed a three-step approach comprising measures of change, factor analysis, and cluster analysis. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the associations between hemoglobin trajectories and the incidence of dementia.

RESULTS

We included 20,195 of 235,742 female participants. New dementia (N = 2664) was developed during follow-up period (2010-2015). Five hemoglobin trajectories were identified: high, mid, low, increasing, and decreasing. With high as a reference, the hazard ratios (HRs) for low and decreasing trajectories were significant, 1.28 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-1.45) and 1.21 (95% CI, 1.10-1.34) in univariate models, respectively. However, only the HR for the decreasing trajectory was significant, 1.12 (95% CI, 1.01-1.24) after adjustment for confounders.

CONCLUSION

The decreasing trajectory of hemoglobin levels within the normal range was associated with dementia. Even females aged 55-79 years without anemia might be vulnerable to dementia development risk.

5-year mental health outcomes for children and adolescents presenting with psychiatric symptoms to general practitioners in England: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Little information is available on the clinical trajectories of children and adolescents who attend general practice (GP) with psychiatric symptoms. We aimed to examine 5-year service use in English primary care for children and adolescents with neurodevelopmental or mental health symptoms or diagnoses.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, we used anonymised primary care health records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database (CPRD-Aurum). We identified children and adolescents (aged 3-18 years) presenting to primary care in England between Jan 1, 2000, and May 9, 2016, with a symptom or diagnosis of a mental health, behavioural, or neurodevelopmental condition. Participants were excluded if they had less than 1 year of follow-up. We followed up participants from their index date until either death, transfer out of the practice, or the end of data collection on May 5, 2021, and for trajectory analysis we limited follow-up to 5 years. We used group-based multi-trajectory models to identify clusters with similar trajectories over 5 years of follow-up for three primary outcomes: mental health-related GP contacts, psychotropic medication prescriptions, and specialist mental health-care contact. We did survival analysis to examine the associations between trajectory-group membership and hospital admission for self-harm or death by suicide, as indicators of severe psychiatric distress.

FINDINGS

We included 369 340 children and adolescents, of whom 180 863 (49·0%) were girls, 188 438 (51·0%) were boys, 39 (<0·1%) were of indeterminate gender, 290 125 (78·6%) were White, 9161 (2·5%) were South Asian, 10 418 (2·8%) were Black, 8115 (2·2%) were of mixed ethnicity, and 8587 (2·3%) were other ethnicities, and the median age at index presentation was 13·6 years (IQR 8·4-16·7). In the best-fitting, seven-group, group-based multi-trajectory model, over a 5-year period, the largest group (low contact; 207 985 [51·2%]) had low rates of additional service contact or psychotropic prescriptions. The other trajectory groups were moderate, non-pharmacological contact (43 836 [13·0%]); declining contact (25 469 [8·7%]); year-4 escalating contact (18 277 [6·9%]); year-5 escalating contact (18 139; 5·2%); prolonged GP contact (32 147 [8·6%]); and prolonged specialist contact (23 487 [6·5%]). Non-White ethnicity and presentation in earlier study years (eg, 2000-2004) were associated with low-contact group membership. The prolonged specialist-contact group had the highest risk of hospital admission for self-harm (hazard ratio vs low-contact group 2·19 [95% CI 2·03-2·36]) and suicide (2·67 [1·72-4·14]).

INTERPRETATION

Most children and adolescents presenting to primary care with psychiatric symptoms or diagnoses have low or declining rates of ongoing contact. If these trajectories reflect symptomatic improvement, these findings provide reassurance for children and adolescents and their caregivers. However, these trajectories might reflect an unmet need for some children and adolescents.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health and Care Research and the Wellcome Trust.

Longitudinal trajectories of substance use disorder treatment use: A latent class growth analysis using a national cohort in Chile

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Longitudinal studies have revealed that substance use treatment use is often recurrent among patients; the longitudinal patterns and characteristics of those treatment trajectories have received less attention, particularly in the global south. This study aimed to disentangle heterogeneity in treatment use among adult patients in Chile by identifying distinct treatment trajectory groups and factors associated with them.

DESIGN

National-level registry-based retrospective cohort.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Adults admitted to publicly funded substance use disorder treatment programs in Chile from November 2009 to November 2010 and followed for 9 years (n = 6266).

MEASUREMENTS

Monthly treatment use; type of treatment; ownership of the treatment center; discharge status; primary substance used; sociodemographic.

FINDINGS

A seven-class treatment trajectory solution was chosen using latent class growth analysis. We identified three trajectory groups that did not recur and had different treatment lengths: Early discontinuation (32%), Less than a year in treatment (19.7%) and Year-long episode, without recurrence (12.3%). We also identified a mixed trajectory group that had a long first treatment or two treatment episodes with a brief time between treatments: Long first treatment, or immediate recurrence (6.3%), and three recurrent treatment trajectory groups: Recurrent and decreasing (14.2%), Early discontinuation with recurrence (9.9%) and Recurrent after long between treatments period (5.7%). Inpatient or outpatient high intensity (vs. outpatient low intensity) at first entry increased the odds of being in the longer one-episode groups compared with the Early discontinuation group. Women had increased odds of belonging to all the recurrent groups. Using cocaine paste (vs. alcohol) as a primary substance decreased the odds of belonging to long one-episode groups.

CONCLUSIONS

In Chile, people in publicly funded treatment for substance use disorder show seven distinct care trajectories: three groups with different treatment lengths and no recurring episodes, a mixed group with a long first treatment or two treatment episodes with a short between-treatment-episodes period and three recurrent treatment groups.

Assessing the performance of group-based trajectory modeling method to discover different patterns of medication adherence

It is well known that medication adherence is critical to patient outcomes and can decrease patient mortality. The Pharmacy Quality Alliance (PQA) has recognized and identified medication adherence as an important indicator of medication-use quality. Hence, there is a need to use the right methods to assess medication adherence. The PQA has endorsed the proportion of days covered (PDC) as the primary method of measuring adherence. Although easy to calculate, the PDC has however several drawbacks as a method of measuring adherence. PDC is a deterministic approach that cannot capture the complexity of a dynamic phenomenon. Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) is increasingly proposed as an alternative to capture heterogeneity in medication adherence. The main goal of this paper is to demonstrate, through a simulation study, the ability of GBTM to capture treatment adherence when compared to its deterministic PDC analogue and to the nonparametric longitudinal K-means. A time-varying treatment was generated as a quadratic function of time, baseline, and time-varying covariates. Three trajectory models are considered combining a cat's cradle effect, and a rainbow effect. The performance of GBTM was compared to the PDC and longitudinal K-means using the absolute bias, the variance, the c-statistics, the relative bias, and the relative variance. For all explored scenarios, we find that GBTM performed better in capturing different patterns of medication adherence with lower relative bias and variance even under model misspecification than PDC and longitudinal K-means.

Trajectories of Wok Adjustment and Influencing Factors Among Newly Registered Nurses

PURPOSE

This study explored the work adjustment trajectory and its predictors and characteristics among newly registered nurses.

METHODS

A total of 245 newly registered nurses working in a university hospital provided general baseline characteristics and completed a work adjustment questionnaire along with self-report measures of clinical competency, psychological capital, preceptor exchange, social support, and role conflict when they started working independently (baseline) and at 7 and 12 months after employment. Data were collected from July 2020 to August 2022. The collected data were subjected to a group-based trajectory model, χ2 test, F test, one-way ANOVA, and multiple logistic regression using SAS 9.4, and SPSS 25.0.

RESULTS

Group-based trajectory modeling classified three newly registered nurse groups: nurses with a high work adjustment level in all subscales from the beginning of employment (early adjustment group, 16.1%), nurses with a moderate level of adjustment from beginning to end (standard adjustment group, 60.6%), and nurses with a low level of work adjustment from early to mid-term, rising later (delayed adjustment group, 23.3%). Higher hope, optimism, and emotional support predicted early and standard adjustments.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the trajectory characteristics, newly registered nurses need to improve their work adjustment. The early and standard adjustment groups should continuously monitor their levels of work adjustment while monitoring their hopes, optimism, and emotional support. In particular, the delayed adjustment group required customized educational programs and strengthened peer support.

Adolescent child custody loss and substance use treatment as predictors of young adult substance use trajectories among females with foster care and juvenile justice involvement

This study aimed to identify trajectories of substance use from adolescence to young adulthood among 166 females with dual child welfare and juvenile justice system involvement, and to explore the influence of adolescent child custody status and substance use treatment on substance use trajectories. Results identified four substance use trajectory groups (stable moderate substance use, decreasing substance use, increasing substance use, stable high substance use). Custody loss during adolescence predicted membership in the stable high substance use trajectory group (log odds estimate = 2.99, p = < 0.01). No significant associations were found with adolescent substance use treatment. The findings can inform policymakers, foster care professionals, and law enforcement officers to promote the delivery of timely and appropriate substance use services that respond to the unique needs of females across the child welfare and juvenile justice system populations.

Distinct long-term disease activity trajectories differentiate early on treatment with etanercept in both rheumatoid arthritis and spondylarthritis patients: a prospective cohort study

To characterize disease activity trajectories and compare long-term drug retention between rheumatoid (RA) and spondylarthritis (SpA) patients initiating tumor necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) treatment (etanercept). Prospective observational study of RA, axial (AxSpA) and peripheral SpA (PerSpA) patients initiating etanercept during 2004-2020. Kaplan-Meier plots were used for drug retention comparisons and multivariable Cox regression models for predictors of discontinuation. Long-term disease activity trajectories were identified by latent class growth models using DAS28-ESR or ASDAS-CRP as outcome for RA and AxSpA respectively. We assessed 711 patients (450 RA, 178 AxSpA and 83 PerSpA) with a median (IQR) follow-up of 12 (5-32) months. At 5 years, 22%, 30% and 21% of RA, AxSpA and PerSpA patients, respectively, remained on therapy. Etanercept discontinuation was independent of the diagnosis and was predicted by gender and obesity in both RA and SpA groups. Four disease activity (DA) trajectories were identified from 6th month of treatment in both RA and AxSpA. RA patients in remission-low DA groups (33.7%) were younger, had shorter disease duration, fewer comorbidities and lower baseline disease activity compared to moderate (40.6%) & high DA (25.7%) groups. In AxSpA 74% were in inactive-low DA and they were more often males, non-obese and had lower number of comorbidities compared to higher ASDAS-CRP trajectories. In RA and AxSpA patients, disease activity trajectories revealed heterogeneity of TNFi treatment responses and prognosis. Male gender, lower baseline disease activity and fewer comorbidities, characterize a favourable outcome in terms of disease burden accrual and TNFi survival.

Trajectories of post-traumatic stress in sepsis survivors two years after ICU discharge: a secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Post-traumatic stress has been identified as a frequent long-term complication in survivors of critical illnesses after sepsis. Little is known about long-term trajectories of post-traumatic stress and potentially modifiable risk factors following the ICU stay. Study objective was to explore and compare different clinical trajectories of post-traumatic stress symptoms in sepsis survivors up to two years after discharge from ICU.

METHODS

Data on post-traumatic stress symptoms by means of the Post-traumatic Symptom Scale (PTSS-10) were collected in sepsis survivors at one, six, 12 and 24 months after discharge from ICU. Data on chronic psychiatric diagnoses prior ICU were derived from the primary care provider's health records, and data on intensive care treatment from ICU documentation. Trajectories of post-traumatic symptoms were identified ex post, discriminating patterns of change and k-means clustering. Assignment to the trajectories was predicted in multinomial log-linear models.

RESULTS

At 24 months, all follow-up measurements of the PTSS-10 were completed in N = 175 patients. Three clusters could be identified regarding clinical trajectories of PTSS levels: stable low symptoms (N = 104 patients [59%]), increasing symptoms (N = 45 patients [26%]), and recovering from symptoms (N = 26 patients [15%]). Patients with initially high post-traumatic symptoms were more likely to show a decrease (OR with 95% CI: 1.1 [1.05, 1.16]). Females (OR = 2.45 [1.11, 5.41]) and patients reporting early traumatic memories of the ICU (OR = 4.04 [1.63, 10]) were at higher risk for increasing PTSS levels.

CONCLUSION

Post-traumatic stress is a relevant long-term burden for sepsis patients after ICU stay. Identification of three different trajectories within two years after ICU discharge highlights the importance of long-term observation, as a quarter of patients reports few symptoms at discharge yet an increase in symptoms in the two years following. Regular screening of ICU survivors on post-traumatic stress should be considered even in patients with few symptoms and in particular in females and patients reporting traumatic memories of the ICU.

Male-Pattern Vertex Baldness Trajectories, Chest Hair Patterns, and Odds of Overall and Aggressive Prostate Cancer

BACKGROUND

The link between hormones and hair growth is well established. Inconsistent associations have been found between hair patterns and cancer of the prostate, a hormone-dependent organ. We assessed vertex baldness trajectories, chest hair amount, and their relationships with the odds of developing prostate cancer in a large case-control study in Montreal, Canada.

METHODS

In-person interviews were conducted with 1,931 incident prostate cancer cases and 1,994 population-based age-matched (±5 years) controls. Participants reported their hair patterns using the validated Hamilton-Norwood scale of baldness for 10-year increments starting at age 30, and their current amount of chest hair. Group-based trajectories were used to identify men sharing similar patterns of vertex baldness severity over adulthood. Multivariable logistic regression assessed associations between indicators of baldness (frontal, vertex, age at onset, severity, and trajectories), chest hair, and odds of prostate cancer.

RESULTS

Vertex balding onset at age 30 was associated with increased odds of overall prostate cancer [Odds ratio (OR), 1.30; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.03-1.64]. Men in the trajectory characterized by early moderate vertex baldness and developing severe baldness had increased odds of overall (OR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.03-1.96) and especially aggressive prostate cancer (OR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.21-3.22) compared with men without baldness. Men with little chest hair had higher odds of aggressive tumors than those with a moderate amount/a lot of chest hair.

CONCLUSIONS

Early-onset moderate vertex baldness that progresses and having little chest hair may be useful biomarkers of aggressive prostate cancer.

IMPACT

Integration of early-onset vertex balding patterns into risk prediction models of aggressive prostate cancer should be envisaged.

A Bootstrap Approach for Evaluating Uncertainty in the Number of Groups Identified by Latent Class Growth Models

The use of longitudinal finite mixture models such as group-based trajectory modeling has seen a sharp increase during the last few decades in the medical literature. However, these methods have been criticized, especially because of the data-driven modeling process, which involves statistical decision-making. In this paper, we propose an approach that uses the bootstrap to sample observations with replacement from the original data to validate the number of groups identified and to quantify the uncertainty in the number of groups. The method allows investigation of the statistical validity and uncertainty of the groups identified in the original data by checking to see whether the same solution is also found across the bootstrap samples. In a simulation study, we examined whether the bootstrap-estimated variability in the number of groups reflected the replicationwise variability. We evaluated the ability of 3 commonly used adequacy criteria (average posterior probability, odds of correct classification, and relative entropy) to identify uncertainty in the number of groups. Finally, we illustrate the proposed approach using data from the Quebec Integrated Chronic Disease Surveillance System to identify longitudinal medication patterns between 2015 and 2018 in older adults with diabetes.

Association between plant-based dietary pattern and biological aging trajectory in a large prospective cohort

BACKGROUND

Aging is a dynamic and heterogeneous process that may better be captured by trajectories of aging biomarkers. Biological age has been advocated as a better biomarker of aging than chronological age, and plant-based dietary patterns have been found to be linked to aging. However, the associations of biological age trajectories with mortality and plant-based dietary patterns remained unclear.

METHODS

Using group-based trajectory modeling approach, we identified distinctive aging trajectory groups among 12,784 participants based on a recently developed biological aging measure acquired at four-time points within an 8-year period. We then examined associations between aging trajectories and quintiles of plant-based dietary patterns assessed by overall plant-based diet index (PDI), healthful PDI (hPDI), and unhealthful PDI (uPDI) among 10,191 participants who had complete data on dietary intake, using multivariable multinomial logistics regression adjusting for sociodemographic and lifestyles factors. Cox proportional hazards regression models were applied to investigate the association between aging trajectories and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

We identified three latent classes of accelerated aging trajectories: slow aging, medium-degree, and high-degree accelerated aging trajectories. Participants who had higher PDI or hPDI had lower odds of being in medium-degree (OR = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.65, 0.86 for PDI; OR = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.62, 0.85 for hPDI) or high-degree (OR = 0.63, 95% CI: 0.46, 0.86 for PDI; OR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.44, 0.88 for hPDI) accelerated aging trajectories. Participants in the highest quintile of uPDI were more likely to be in medium-degree (OR = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.48, 1.99) or high-degree (OR = 1.70, 95% CI: 1.21, 2.38) accelerated aging trajectories. With a mean follow-up time of 8.40 years and 803 (6.28%) participants died by the end of follow-up, we found that participants in medium-degree (HR = 1.56, 95% CI: 1.29, 1.89) or high-degree (HR = 3.72, 95% CI: 2.73, 5.08) accelerated aging trajectory groups had higher risks of death than those in the slow aging trajectory.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified three distinctive aging trajectories in a large Asian cohort and found that adopting a plant-based dietary pattern, especially when rich in healthful plant foods, was associated with substantially lowered pace of aging.

Longitudinal Patterns of Postfracture Outpatient Physical Therapy and Occupational Therapy Use and Its Association With 3-Year Mortality Among Adults With Cerebral Palsy

OBJECTIVE

Fragility fractures are common among adults with cerebral palsy (CP), but clinical rehabilitation use after fracture and its effect on long-term health outcomes have not been sufficiently studied. The objectives of this study were to identify patterns of the use of physical therapy, occupational therapy, or both in the 6-month postfracture period and the association with 3-year mortality in adults with CP.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included adults who were ≥18 years old, had CP, and had sustained an incident fragility fracture between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2016, as identified from a random 20% Medicare fee-for-service dataset. Six-month outpatient physical therapy or occupational therapy use patterns after fracture were identified using group-based trajectory modeling. Cox regression determined the association between physical therapy or occupational therapy use trajectory patterns and mortality from 6 months to 3 years after fracture, adjusting for confounders. Effect modification by key characteristics was tested, including age, sex, and the modified Whitney Comorbidity Index (mWCI), which is a CP-specific comorbidity index that better captures overall medical complexity.

RESULTS

Of the 2429 participants included, the majority (73.2%) were characterized as having little to no probability of physical therapy or occupational therapy use, whereas 16.0 and 10.7% were characterized as having early initiation and later initiation, respectively. Compared to the mortality rate for the little to no physical therapy or occupational therapy group, the mortality rates were 26% lower for the early physical therapy or occupational therapy initiation group (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.74; 95% CI = 0.55-1.00) and were 20% lower for the later initiation group (HR = 0.80; 95% CI = 0.57-1.12). There was effect modification by the mWCI. The mortality rate was lower when the early initiation and later initiation groups were compared to the little to no initiation group across all mWCI values examined (median and interquartile range), but the effect was stronger (ie, lower mortality rate) for lower mWCI values for both early initiation and later initiation groups.

CONCLUSION

Most adults with CP underutilize outpatient physical therapy or occupational therapy services within 6 months postfracture. Early or later initiation versus little to no physical therapy or occupational therapy use was associated with a lower HR of mortality, although the effect was stronger and statistically significant among those with less medical complexity.

IMPACT

Throughout their lives, the use of rehabilitation services in individuals with CP, including physical therapy and occupational therapy, dramatically declines despite the need for continued rehabilitation across their lifespans. This study characterized longitudinal physical therapy or occupational therapy use patterns in the 6 months following a fragility fracture among adults with CP and found that nearly 3 in 4 adults with CP had little to no physical therapy or occupational therapy use during this critical window to optimize postfracture health and function. Further, those who more regularly used physical therapy or occupational therapy services, regardless of the timing of initiation (early vs later), had significantly improved survival up to 3 years after fracture, suggesting the need for greater access to and delivery of clinical rehabilitation services.

Loneliness during the last phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain: A longitudinal study of group-based trajectories, risk factors, and consequences in mental health

INTRODUCTION

The present study aims to investigate the courses of loneliness following a national state of emergency including a curfew due to a rise in COVID-19 cases, associated risk factors, and the effect of loneliness on symptoms of depression and anxiety.

METHODS

Data of 2,000 adults in Spain which were interviewed by telephone at the first follow-up of the MINDCOVID project (February-March 2021) and of whom 953 were interviewed nine months later (November-December 2021) were analyzed. Group-based trajectories and mixed models were constructed.

RESULTS

Three courses of loneliness were detected: (1) invariant low loneliness (42.6%), (2) decreasing medium loneliness (51.5%), and (3) fairly invariant high loneliness (5.9%). Loneliness courses were associated with the severity and variability of symptoms of depression and anxiety. In contrast to the majority of pre-pandemic studies, younger adults more frequently reported loneliness compared to middle-aged and, particularly, older individuals. Other risk factors for loneliness were being female, being unmarried, and, notably, having pre-pandemic mental disorders.

CONCLUSIONS

Future studies should validate whether the newly observed loneliness patterns across age groups persist and assess the evolution of loneliness courses and their impact on mental health, with particular attention given to young adults and individuals with pre-existing mental disorders.

Random capillary glucose levels throughout pregnancy, obstetric and neonatal outcomes, and long-term neurodevelopmental conditions in children: a group-based trajectory analysis

BACKGROUND

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is associated with both short- and long-term risks, although it is unknown if risks vary by severity, timing, and duration of gestational hyperglycemia. We aimed to identify trajectories of random capillary glucose (RCG) levels throughout pregnancy and assess their associations with both obstetric/neonatal outcomes and children's risk of neurodevelopmental conditions (NDCs) (i.e., autism, intellectual disability, and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorders [ADHD]).

METHODS

A population-based cohort study was conducted involving 76,228 children born to 68,768 mothers without pregestational diabetes. Group-based trajectory modeling was utilized to identify distinct glucose trajectories across RCG values throughout the course of pregnancy. The associations between these trajectory groups and obstetric/neonatal outcomes as well as children's NDCs were then assessed using generalized estimating equation models with a logit link. The Benjamini-Hochberg (BH) procedure was employed to adjust P-values for multiple comparisons, controlling the false discovery rate (FDR).

RESULTS

Five distinct glucose trajectory groups were identified, each with varying percentages diagnosed with GDM. Their associations with obstetric/neonatal outcomes as well as children's NDCs varied. For example, when compared to the "Persistently Low" group, other groups exhibited varying degrees of increased risk for large-for-gestational-age babies, with the exception of the "High in Early Pregnancy" group. Compared to the "Persistently Low" group, all other trajectory groups were associated with NDC outcomes, except the "High in Mid-Pregnancy" group. However, none of the associations with offspring NDCs remained significant after accounting for the FDR correction.

CONCLUSIONS

Persistent high glucose levels or moderately elevated glucose levels throughout pregnancy, as well as transient states of hyperglycemia in early or mid-pregnancy, were found to be associated with increased risks of specific obstetric and neonatal complications, and potentially offspring NDCs. These risks varied depending on the severity, timing, duration, and management of hyperglycemia. The findings underscore the need for continuous surveillance and individualized management strategies for women displaying different glucose trajectories during pregnancy. Limitations such as potential residual confounding, the role of mediators, and small sample size should be addressed in future studies.

Developmental trajectories of alcohol and cannabis concurrent use in a nationally representative sample of United States youths

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have identified common trajectories of single type substance use over the course of adolescence; however, no study to date has examined joint trajectories of cannabis and alcohol concurrent use. Given that expansion of legal cannabis has increased availability, it is important to understand patterns of concurrent use in adolescents and factors that place male and female youth at risk for harmful trajectories of concurrent use. The current study sought to identify joint trajectories of cannabis and alcohol use - and predictors of harmful use trajectories - among male and female adolescents.

METHOD

We used 4 waves of data from 6997 early adolescent participants (age 12-14 years at Wave 1) in the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health, a nationally representative longitudinal study in the United States. Participants reported their cannabis and alcohol use reassessed yearly for 5 years (2013-2018). We used joint trajectory growth mixture modeling to identify trajectory groups as defined by changes in alcohol and cannabis use over time.

RESULTS

Five classes of alcohol and cannabis concurrent use trajectories were identified. Both internalizing and externalizing symptoms at Wave 1 increased the odds of membership in trajectory groups characterized by more harmful use trajectories. Internalizing symptomatology was a stronger predictor of membership in escalating use trajectories among girls, whereas externalizing symptomatology stronger predictor among boys.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings underscore the utility of jointly considering alcohol and cannabis use when describing common developmental trajectories of use and identifying risk factors for trajectories characterized by harmful use.

Trajectories of multiple long-term conditions and mortality in older adults: A retrospective cohort study using English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA)

Objectives

To classify older adults with MLTC into clusters based on accumulating conditions as trajectories over time, characterise clusters and quantify associations between derived clusters and all-cause mortality.

Design

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) over nine years (n=15,091 aged 50 years and older). Group-based trajectory modelling was used to classify people into MLTC clusters based on accumulating conditions over time. Derived clusters were used to quantify the associations between MLTC trajectory memberships, sociodemographic characteristics, and all-cause mortality.

Results

Five distinct clusters of MLTC trajectories were identified and characterised as: "no-LTC" (18.57%), "single-LTC" (31.21%), "evolving MLTC" (25.82%), "moderate MLTC" (17.12%), and "high MLTC" (7.27%). Increasing age was consistently associated with an increased number of MLTC. Female sex (aOR = 1.13; 95%CI 1.01 to 1.27) and ethnic minority (aOR = 2.04; 95%CI 1.40 to 3.00) were associated with the "moderate MLTC" and "high MLTC" clusters, respectively. Higher education and paid employment were associated with a lower likelihood of progression over time towards an increased number of MLTC. All the clusters had higher all-cause mortality than the "no-LTC" cluster.

Conclusions

The development of MLTC and the increase in the number of conditions over time follow distinct trajectories. These are determined by non-modifiable (age, sex, ethnicity) and modifiable factors (education and employment). Stratifying risk through clustering will enable practitioners to identify older adults with a higher likelihood of worsening MLTC over time to tailor effective interventions.

Individual Differences in CD4/CD8 T-Cell Ratio Trajectories and Associated Risk Profiles Modeled From Acute HIV Infection

OBJECTIVE

We examined individual differences in CD4/CD8 T-cell ratio trajectories and associated risk profiles from acute HIV infection (AHI) through 144 weeks of antiretroviral therapy (ART) using a data-driven approach.

METHODS

A total of 483 AHI participants began ART during Fiebig I-V and completed follow-up evaluations for 144 weeks. CD4+, CD8+, and CD4/CD8 T-cell ratio trajectories were defined followed by analyses to identify associated risk variables.

RESULTS

Participants had a median viral load (VL) of 5.88 copies/ml and CD4/CD8 T-cell ratio of 0.71 at enrollment. After 144 weeks of ART, the median CD4/CD8 T-cell ratio was 1.3. Longitudinal models revealed five CD4/CD8 T-cell ratio subgroups: group 1 (3%) exhibited a ratio >1.0 at all visits; groups 2 (18%) and 3 (29%) exhibited inversion at enrollment, with normalization 4 and 12 weeks after ART, respectively; and groups 4 (31%) and 5 (18%) experienced CD4/CD8 T-cell ratio inversion due to slow CD4+ T-cell recovery (group 4) or high CD8+ T-cell count (group 5). Persistent inversion corresponded to ART onset after Fiebig II, higher VL, soluble CD27 and TIM-3, and lower eosinophil count. Individuals with slow CD4+ T-cell recovery exhibited higher VL, lower white blood cell count, lower basophil percent, and treatment with standard ART, as well as worse mental health and cognition, compared with individuals with high CD8+ T-cell count.

CONCLUSIONS

Early HIV disease dynamics predict unfavorable CD4/CD8 T-cell ratio outcomes after ART. CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell trajectories contribute to inversion risk and correspond to specific viral, immune, and psychological profiles during AHI. Adjunctive strategies to achieve immune normalization merit consideration.