SARS-CoV-2 lineage dynamics in England from September to November 2021: high diversity of Delta sub-lineages and increased transmissibility of AY.4.2

Investigating the cause of a 2021 winter wave of COVID-19 in a border region in eastern Germany: a mixed-methods study, August to November 2021

It is so far unclear how the COVID-19 winter waves started and what should be done to prevent possible future waves. In this study, we deciphered the dynamic course of a winter wave in 2021 in Saxony, a state in Eastern Germany neighbouring the Czech Republic and Poland. The study was carried out through the integration of multiple virus genomic epidemiology approaches to track transmission chains, identify emerging variants and investigate dynamic changes in transmission clusters. For identified local variants of interest, functional evaluations were performed. Multiple long-lasting community transmission clusters have been identified acting as driving force for the winter wave 2021. Analysis of the dynamic courses of two representative clusters indicated a similar transmission pattern. However, the transmission cluster caused by a locally occurring new Delta variant AY.36.1 showed a distinct transmission pattern, and functional analyses revealed a replication advantage of it. This study indicated that long-lasting community transmission clusters starting since early autumn caused by imported or locally occurring variants all contributed to the development of the 2021 winter wave. The information we achieved might help future pandemic prevention.

Scalable neighbour search and alignment with uvaia

Despite millions of SARS-CoV-2 genomes being sequenced and shared globally, manipulating such data sets is still challenging, especially selecting sequences for focused phylogenetic analysis. We present a novel method, uvaia, which is based on partial and exact sequence similarity for quickly extracting database sequences similar to query sequences of interest. Many SARS-CoV-2 phylogenetic analyses rely on very low numbers of ambiguous sites as a measure of quality since ambiguous sites do not contribute to single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) differences. Uvaia overcomes this limitation by using measures of sequence similarity which consider partially ambiguous sites, allowing for more ambiguous sequences to be included in the analysis if needed. Such fine-grained definition of similarity allows not only for better phylogenetic analyses, but could also lead to improved classification and biogeographical inferences. Uvaia works natively with compressed files, can use multiple cores and efficiently utilises memory, being able to analyse large data sets on a standard desktop.

Differences between the true reproduction number and the apparent reproduction number of an epidemic time series

The time-varying reproduction number R(t) measures the number of new infections per infectious individual and is closely correlated with the time series of infection incidence by definition. The timings of actual infections are rarely known, and analysis of epidemics usually relies on time series data for other outcomes such as symptom onset. A common implicit assumption, when estimating R(t) from an epidemic time series, is that R(t) has the same relationship with these downstream outcomes as it does with the time series of incidence. However, this assumption is unlikely to be valid given that most epidemic time series are not perfect proxies of incidence. Rather they represent convolutions of incidence with uncertain delay distributions. Here we define the apparent time-varying reproduction number, RA(t), the reproduction number calculated from a downstream epidemic time series and demonstrate how differences between RA(t) and R(t) depend on the convolution function. The mean of the convolution function sets a time offset between the two signals, whilst the variance of the convolution function introduces a relative distortion between them. We present the convolution functions of epidemic time series that were available during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Infection prevalence, measured by random sampling studies, presents fewer biases than other epidemic time series. Here we show that additionally the mean and variance of its convolution function were similar to that obtained from traditional surveillance based on mass-testing and could be reduced using more frequent testing, or by using stricter thresholds for positivity. Infection prevalence studies continue to be a versatile tool for tracking the temporal trends of R(t), and with additional refinements to their study protocol, will be of even greater utility during any future epidemics or pandemics.

Gonadal androgens are associated with decreased type I interferon production by plasmacytoid dendritic cells and increased IgG titres to BNT162b2 following co-vaccination with live attenuated influenza vaccine in adolescents

mRNA vaccine technologies introduced following the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic have highlighted the need to better understand the interaction of adjuvants and the early innate immune response. Type I interferon (IFN-I) is an integral part of this early innate response that primes several components of the adaptive immune response. Women are widely reported to respond better than men to tri- and quadrivalent influenza vaccines. Plasmacytoid dendritic cells (pDCs) are the primary cell type responsible for IFN-I production, and female pDCs produce more IFN-I than male pDCs since the upstream pattern recognition receptor Toll-like receptor 7 (TLR7) is encoded by X chromosome and is biallelically expressed by up to 30% of female immune cells. Additionally, the TLR7 promoter contains several putative androgen response elements, and androgens have been reported to suppress pDC IFN-I in vitro. Unexpectedly, therefore, we recently observed that male adolescents mount stronger antibody responses to the Pfizer BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine than female adolescents after controlling for natural SARS-CoV-2 infection. We here examined pDC behaviour in this same cohort to determine the impact of IFN-I on anti-spike and anti-receptor-binding domain IgG titres to BNT162b2. Through flow cytometry and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) modelling, we determined that serum-free testosterone was associated with reduced pDC IFN-I, but contrary to the well-described immunosuppressive role for androgens, the most bioactive androgen dihydrotestosterone was associated with increased IgG titres to BNT162b2. Also unexpectedly, we observed that co-vaccination with live attenuated influenza vaccine boosted the magnitude of IgG responses to BNT162b2. Together, these data support a model where systemic IFN-I increases vaccine-mediated immune responses, yet for vaccines with intracellular stages, modulation of the local IFN-I response may alter antigen longevity and consequently improve vaccine-driven immunity.

Key Challenges for Respiratory Virus Surveillance while Transitioning out of Acute Phase of COVID-19 Pandemic

To support the ongoing management of viral respiratory diseases while transitioning out of the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries are moving toward an integrated model of surveillance for SARS-CoV-2, influenza virus, and other respiratory pathogens. Although many surveillance approaches catalyzed by the COVID-19 pandemic provide novel epidemiologic insight, continuing them as implemented during the pandemic is unlikely to be feasible for nonemergency surveillance, and many have already been scaled back. Furthermore, given anticipated cocirculation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus, surveillance activities in place before the pandemic require review and adjustment to ensure their ongoing value for public health. In this report, we highlight key challenges for the development of integrated models of surveillance. We discuss the relative strengths and limitations of different surveillance practices and studies as well as their contribution to epidemiologic assessment, forecasting, and public health decision-making.

Tracking the evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant of concern: analysis of genetic diversity and selection across the whole viral genome

Background

Since 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has diversified extensively, producing five highly virulent lineages designated as variants of concern (VOCs). The Delta VOC emerged in India with increased transmission, immune evasion, and mortality, causing a massive global case surge in 2021. This study aims to understand how the Delta VOC evolved by characterizing mutation patterns in the viral population before and after its emergence. Furthermore, we aim to identify the influence of positive and negative selection on VOC evolution and understand the prevalence of different mutation types in the viral genome.

Methods

Three groups of whole viral genomes were retrieved from GISAID, sourced from India, with collection periods as follows: Group A-during the initial appearance of SARS-CoV-2; Group B-just before the emergence of the Delta variant; Group C-after the establishment of the Delta variant in India. Mutations in >1% of each group were identified with BioEdit to reveal differences in mutation quantity and type. Sites under positive or negative selection were identified with FUBAR. The results were compared to determine how mutations correspond with selective pressures and how viral mutation profiles changed to reflect genetic diversity before and after VOC emergence.

Results

The number of mutations increased progressively in Groups A-C, with Group C reporting a 2.2- and 1.9-fold increase from Groups A and B, respectively. Among all the observed mutations, Group C had the highest percentage of deletions (22.7%; vs. 4.2% and 2.6% in Groups A and B, respectively), and most mutations altered the final amino acid code, such as non-synonymous substitutions and deletions. Conversely, Group B had the most synonymous substitutions that are effectively silent. The number of sites experiencing positive selection increased in Groups A-C, but Group B had 2.4- and 2.6 times more sites under negative selection compared to Groups A and C, respectively.

Conclusion

Our findings demonstrated that viral genetic diversity continuously increased during and after the emergence of the Delta VOC. Despite this, Group B reports heightened negative selection, which potentially preserves important gene regions during evolution. Group C contains an unprecedented quantity of mutations and positively selected sites, providing strong evidence of active viral adaptation in the population.

Emergence, spread and characterisation of the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.640 circulating in France, October 2021 to February 2022

BackgroundSuccessive epidemic waves of COVID-19 illustrated the potential of SARS-CoV-2 variants to reshape the pandemic. Detecting and characterising emerging variants is essential to evaluate their public health impact and guide implementation of adapted control measures.AimTo describe the detection of emerging variant, B.1.640, in France through genomic surveillance and present investigations performed to inform public health decisions.MethodsIdentification and monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.640 was achieved through the French genomic surveillance system, producing 1,009 sequences. Additional investigation of 272 B.1.640-infected cases was performed between October 2021 and January 2022 using a standardised questionnaire and comparing with Omicron variant-infected cases.ResultsB.1.640 was identified in early October 2021 in a school cluster in Bretagne, later spreading throughout France. B.1.640 was detected at low levels at the end of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant's dominance and progressively disappeared after the emergence of the Omicron (BA.1) variant. A high proportion of investigated B.1.640 cases were children aged under 14 (14%) and people over 60 (27%) years, because of large clusters in these age groups. B.1.640 cases reported previous SARS-CoV-2 infection (4%), anosmia (32%) and ageusia (34%), consistent with data on pre-Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants. Eight percent of investigated B.1.640 cases were hospitalised, with an overrepresentation of individuals aged over 60 years and with risk factors.ConclusionEven though B.1.640 did not outcompete the Delta variant, its importation and continuous low-level spread raised concerns regarding its public health impact. The investigations informed public health decisions during the time that B.1.640 was circulating.

Crisis communication in the WHO COVID-19 press conferences: A retrospective analysis

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study is to investigate, from a longitudinal perspective, how WHO communicated COVID-19 related information to the public through its press conferences during the first two years of the pandemic.

METHODS

The transcripts of 195 WHO COVID-19 press conferences held between January 22, 2020 and February 23, 2022 were collected. All transcripts were syntactically parsed to extract highly frequent noun chunks that were potential topics of the press conferences. First-order autoregression models were fit to identify "hot" and "cold" topics. In addition, sentiments and emotions expressed in the transcripts were analyzed using lexicon-based sentiment/emotion analyses. Mann-Kendall tests were performed to capture the possible trends of sentiments and emotions over time.

RESULTS

First, eleven "hot" topics were identified. These topics were pertinent to anti-pandemic measures, disease surveillance and development, and vaccine-related issues. Second, no significant trend was captured in sentiments. Last, significant downward trends were found in anticipation, surprise, anger, disgust, and fear. However, no significant trends were found in joy, trust, and sadness.

CONCLUSIONS

This retrospective study provided new empirical evidence on how WHO communicated issues pertaining to COVID-19 to the general public through its press conferences. With the help of the study, members of the general public, health organizations, and other stake-holders will be able to better understand the way in which WHO has responded to various critical events during the first two years of the pandemic.

Dynamics of competing SARS-CoV-2 variants during the Omicron epidemic in England

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been characterised by the regular emergence of genomic variants. With natural and vaccine-induced population immunity at high levels, evolutionary pressure favours variants better able to evade SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibodies. The Omicron variant (first detected in November 2021) exhibited a high degree of immune evasion, leading to increased infection rates worldwide. However, estimates of the magnitude of this Omicron wave have often relied on routine testing data, which are prone to several biases. Using data from the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study, a series of cross-sectional surveys assessing prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England, we estimated the dynamics of England's Omicron wave (from 9 September 2021 to 1 March 2022). We estimate an initial peak in national Omicron prevalence of 6.89% (5.34%, 10.61%) during January 2022, followed by a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 infections as the more transmissible Omicron sub-lineage, BA.2 replaced BA.1 and BA.1.1. Assuming the emergence of further distinct variants, intermittent epidemics of similar magnitudes may become the 'new normal'.