Lung cancer mortality and years of potential life lost among males and females over six decades in a country with high smoking prevalence: an observational study

Trend Analysis of Lung Cancer Mortality and Years of Life Lost (YLL) in South of Iran, 2004-2019

Background

We aimed to determine the mortality rate and Years of Life Lost (YLL) due to lung cancer in Fars, Iran, during the period from 2004 to 2019.

Methods

All deaths due to lung cancer in Fars Province, Iran from the electronic population-based death registration system (EDRS) were obtained. Crude mortality rate, age-standardized mortality rate, YLL and YLL rate data were calculated and trends examined.

Results

During 2004-2019, 3346 deaths occurred due to lung cancer in Fars Province, which was 10.8% (3346/30936) of the total cancer deaths in this period. Crude mortality rate of lung cancer had increased 70% and 53% in male and female respectively from 2004 to 2019. The total YLL of lung cancer during the 16-year study period was 28,094 (0.9 per 1000) in men, 14,174 (0.5 per 1000) in women, and 42,268 (0.8 per 1000) in both sexes (sex ratio male/female=2). According to the join point regression, the 16- year trend of YLL rate due to premature mortality was increasing: APC was 2.5% (95% CI 0.9 to 4.2, P=0.005) for males, 1.4% (95% CI 0.3 to 2.6, P=0.017) for females.

Conclusion

The mortality rate and YLL due to lung cancer in Fars Province is increasing, although the standardized mortality has a constant trend. Tobacco control is the most effective and least expensive way to reduce the number of lung cancer patients worldwide. National and local media can also play an important role in informing people about the risk factors.

Male-Female Disparities in Years of Potential Life Lost Attributable to COVID-19 in the United States: A State-by-State Analysis

Males are at higher risk relative to females of severe outcomes following COVID-19 infection. Focusing on COVID-19-attributable mortality in the United States (U.S.), we quantify and contrast years of potential life lost (YPLL) attributable to COVID-19 by sex based on data from the U.S. National Center for Health Statistics as of 31 March 2021, specifically by contrasting male and female percentages of total YPLL with their respective percent population shares and calculating age-adjusted male-to-female YPLL rate ratios both nationally and for each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Using YPLL before age 75 to anchor comparisons between males and females and a novel Monte Carlo simulation procedure to perform estimation and uncertainty quantification, our results reveal a near-universal pattern across states of higher COVID-19-attributable YPLL among males compared to females. Furthermore, the disproportionately high COVID-19 mortality burden among males is generally more pronounced when measuring mortality in terms of YPLL compared to age-irrespective death counts, reflecting dual phenomena of males dying from COVID-19 at higher rates and at systematically younger ages relative to females. The U.S. COVID-19 epidemic also offers lessons underscoring the importance of a public health environment that recognizes sex-specific needs as well as different patterns in risk factors, health behaviors, and responses to interventions between men and women. Public health strategies incorporating focused efforts to increase COVID-19 vaccinations among men are particularly urged.

Changes in mortality and years of life lost due to lung cancer in Poland, 2000-2016

BACKGROUND

The aim of the study was to evaluate trends of mortality and the number of years of life lost due to lung cancer in Poland, in the period 2000-2016.

METHODS

The study material was 375,151 death certificates of all inhabitants of Poland who died in the period 2000-2016 due to lung cancer. In order to calculate the number of years of life lost, the authors used indices: SEYLL_p (Standard Expected Years of Life Lost per living person), SEYLL_d (per deaths), APC (Annual Percentage Change) and AAPC (Average Annual Percentage Change).

RESULTS

The standardized death rate (SDR) due to lung cancer decreased in the analyzed period from 74.5 to 68.3 per 100,000 population (AAPC = -0.6%). The most rapid decrease was noted in the years 2008-2011 (APC = -2.2%). With regards to males, SDR decreased from 148.8 to 114.5 (AAPC = -1.7%), whereas in females, it increased from 25.7 to 37.6 (AAPC = 2.3%). The SEYLL_p index, calculated per 100,000 inhabitants, increased from 1189.9 in the year 2000 to 1250.5 in the year 2016. The trend and pace of changes fluctuated. In 2000-2008, the SEYLL_p index was increasing at a pace of 0.7%. This growth was followed by a decrease at a pace of -1.2%, noted in 2008-2011. After the year 2011, the indices started to grow at an annual pace of 0.4%. AAPC in the whole study period was 0.3%. Increased mortality in females was responsible for the increase in the number of lost years of life. SEYLL_p values in this sex group increased from 464.8 in the year 2000 to 774.7 in the year 2016 (APC = 3.3%).With regards to males, SEYLL_p values, calculated for 100,000 male population, decreased in the analyzed period from 1961.1 to 1758.3.

CONCLUSIONS

Lung cancer still poses a serious epidemiological problem in Poland and the number of years of life lost due to this cause reflects social and economic implications of premature lung cancer-related mortality. There is a great need to educate, particularly women, and show effective ways of quitting smoking.

Avoidable Cancer Mortality in Germany Since Reunification: Regional Variation and Sex Differences

Background: Regional comparisons of cancer-related mortality in Germany are traditionally focused on disparities between East and West Germany. Recent improvements in all-cause and cancer-related mortality show a diverse regional pattern beyond the known East-West mortality divide. A generalized approach of the avoidable/amenable cancer mortality definition is applied for suitable regional comparisons of long-term trends. Methods: Standardized death rates of preventable and amenable cancer mortality for men and women were computed for the period 1990-2014 to observe sex-specific excess mortality due to specific cancers after the German reunification. For regional comparison, three German super regions were defined in Eastern, Northwestern, and Southwestern Germany to account for similarities in long-term regional premature and cancer-related mortality patterns, socioeconomic characteristics, and age structure. Results: Since preventable and amenable cancer mortality rates typically have driven the recent trends in premature mortality, our findings underline the current regional pattern of preventable cancer mortality for males with disadvantages for Eastern Germany, and advantages for Southwestern Germany. Among women, the preventable cancer mortality has increased in Northwestern and Southwestern Germany after the German reunification but has decreased in Eastern Germany and converged to the pattern of Southwestern Germany. Similar patterns can be observed for females in amenable cancer mortality. Conclusions: Although the "traditional" East-West gap in preventable cancer mortality was still evident in males, our study provides some hints for more regional diversity in avoidable cancer mortality in women. An establishing north-south divide in avoidable cancer mortality could alter the future trends in regional cancer-related mortality in Germany.

Cancer incidence in eastern Morocco: cancer patterns and incidence trends, 2005-2012

BACKGROUND

Cancer is one of the major health problems worldwide. In this article, we present for the first time the cancer incidence trends, the distribution and the socioeconomic profile of incident cancer cases in Eastern Morocco over a period of eight years.

METHODS

Retrospective descriptive study of patients diagnosed with cancer at the Hassan II Regional Oncology Center (ROC) since it was created in October 2005 until December 2012. During the study period, the ROC was the only hospital specialized in cancer care in Eastern Morocco.

RESULTS

A total of 7872 incident cases of cancer were registered in Eastern Morocco. Among these incident cases 5220 cases were women and 2652 were men, with a female to male ratio of 1.97. The mean age at diagnosis was 58 years for males and 52 for females and 94% of the patients aged over 30 years. For both sexes combined and for all cancer sites, breast cancer was the commonest followed by cervix uteri, colon-rectum, lung, nasopharynx, and stomach cancers. The most common cancer in women was breast cancer, followed respectively by cervix uteri cancer, colon-rectum cancer, ovary cancer, and stomach cancer. In men, the lung cancer ranked first, followed respectively by colon-rectum cancer, nasopharynx cancer, prostate cancer, and stomach cancer. For most cancers, crude incidence rates (CR) have increased significantly. The CR for all cancers combined has increased from 56.6 to 80.3 per 100,000 females and from 32.3 to 42.6 per 100,000 males during the study period. Patients profile analysis showed that 79% of cancer patients were from urban areas, 83% were unemployed and 85% had no health insurance.

CONCLUSIONS

The distribution of cancers in Eastern Morocco is different from those observed in other regions of Morocco. Unlike most countries, women were much more affected with cancer than men in Eastern Morocco. More importantly, the rates of many cancers are rising. Therefore, our data justify the need to develop effective programs for cancer control and prevention in Eastern Morocco. A better access to cancer care should be a priority of the health policies, given that the majority of cancer patients in Eastern Morocco are unemployed, and do not have medical care coverage.

Three Decades of Follow-up of Adults After Recovery From Invasive Pneumococcal Pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Streptococcus pneumoniae infection is the most common cause of community-acquired pneumonia in adults. Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) carries a high case fatality rate. We investigated the lifespan of adults who recovered from IPD during a 32-year follow-up.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We determined whether adults discharged after an episode of IPD from hospitals affiliated with the Marshall University Joan C. Edwards School of Medicine in Huntington, West Virginia from 1983-2003 were alive on June 30, 2014. Lifespan was assessed by Kaplan-Meier methodology, Cox proportional hazards multivariate analysis, life expectancy using life tables for West Virginia, years of potential life lost and serotype occurrence.

RESULTS

The study group comprised 155 adults who survived IPD. They had a mean age at discharge of 64.6 years, mean lifespan after IPD of 7.1 years, mean expected lifespan after IPD of 17.0 years, mean age at death of 71.6 years and a mean life expectancy of 81.6 years. Only 14 (9.0%) patients lived longer than their life expectancy. Of the 13 comorbid diseases analyzed, cancer and neurologic diseases and the number of comorbid diseases suffered by each patient were the significant variables associated with survival. The mean years of potential life lost was 9.936 years. Only serotype 12 of 31 serotypes recovered occurred more often in patients who survived for 11 or more years after discharge (relative risk = 3.44, 95% CI: 1.19-9.95).

CONCLUSIONS

The fact that most adult patients who recovered from IPD died before their documented life expectancy argues for the pernicious severity of IPD and the importance of immunization of adults with pneumococcal vaccines.

Cancer mortality in former East and West Germany: a story of unification?

Background

Health and social conditions vary between West and East Germany.

Methods

We analyzed annual mortality data of all recorded deaths caused by lung, colorectal, breast and prostate cancer in Germany as they are published by the Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS) encompassing the period 1980–2014 for former West Germany (WG) and 1990–2014 for former East Germany (EG). To compare East and West Germany we computed the ratio of the mortality rates in both parts (mortality rate ratio, MRR, <1 indicates a lower mortality in EG). Forecasting methods of time series analyses were applied (model selection based on the Box/Jenkins approach) to predict 5-year trends until 2019.

Results

Lung cancer: In women mortality rose in both regions (WG: +2.8%, 1991–2014, EG: +2.2%, 1990–2014). In men mortality in WG declined between −2.1% and −1.2%, and by −2.7% (1993–2009) in EG which was followed by a plateau. Colorectal cancer: A decline was found in both WG (−3.1%, 1993–2014) and EG women (−3.8%, 1993–2008 and −2.0%, 2008–2014). A decline in EG men since 1992 (−0.9%, 1992–1997 and −2.3%, 1997–2014) mirrors the development in WG (−2.6%, 1995–2014). Breast cancer: Constant mortality decline in WG after 1996. In EG a decline (−2.4%, 1992–2007) was followed by a plateau with an MRR <1 (1990–2014). Prostate cancer: In WG a decline (−3.4%) came to a hold after 2007, while there was a constant decline of 1.5% in EG. The forecast indicated that mortality of colorectal/lung cancer in men and breast cancer reaches a plateau in future years.

Conclusion

Courses of mortality were similar between East and West, while existing differences are likely to remain in the near future.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12885-017-3086-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Lung cancer and tobacco smoking in Crete, Greece: reflections from a population-based cancer registry from 1992 to 2013

Background

The Cancer Registry of Crete is a regional population database that collects cancer morbidity/mortality data along with several risk factors. The current study assessed the geographical variation of lung cancer among ever and never smokers in Crete during the last 20 years.

Method

Lung cancer patient records (1992–2013) including information on medical history and smoking habits were obtained from the Cancer Registry of Crete. Age-Adjusted Incidence Rates (AAIR), prevalence of smoking among lung cancer patients and the Population-Attributable Fraction (PAF%) of tobacco smoking were estimated. Kaplan-Meier curves, grouped per smoking status were constructed, and spatio-temporal analyses were carried out to assess the geographical variations of lung cancer and smoking (a = 0.05).

Results

New lung cancer cases in Crete accounted for 9% of all cancers (AAIR_{both genders} = 40.2/100,000/year, AAIR_males = 73.1/100,000/year, AAIR_females = 11.8/100,000/year). Ever smokers presented significantly higher incidence compared to ex-smokers (p = 0.02) and never smokers (p < 0.001). The highest increase was observed in ever smokers (AAIR₁₉₉₂ = 19.2/100,000/year, AAIR₂₀₁₃ = 25.4/100,000/year, p = 0.03), while never smokers presented the lowest increase from 1992 to 2013 (AAIR₁₉₉₂ = 5.3/100,000/year, AAIR₂₀₁₃ = 6.8/100,000/year, p = 0.2). The PAF% of lung cancer mortality is 86% for both genders (males: 89%, females: 78%). AAIRs ranged from 25 to 50/100,000/year, while significant geographical differences were observed among the municipalities of Crete (p = 0.02). Smokers living in the south-east urban regions presented higher risk of dying from lung cancer (RR = 2.2; 95%CI = 1.3–3.5).

Conclusions

The constant increase of lung cancer rates among both genders, especially in females, outlines the need for targeted, geographically-oriented, life-style preventive measures. Design of population-based screening programs, tobacco awareness campaigns and smoking cessation programs in lung cancer hot spots could be guide by these findings.

Declining Bowel Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Germany

BACKGROUND

In October 2002, screening colonoscopy from age 55 onward was introduced as part of the German national statutory cancer screening program. Screening colonoscopy is intended to lower both the mortality and the incidence of bowel cancer by enabling the detection and removal of precursor lesions.

METHODS

The authors studied trends in bowel cancer incidence and mortality in Germany from 2003 to 2012 on the basis of data from the epidemiological cancer registries and from cause-of-death statistics.

RESULTS

Over the period of investigation, the age-standardized incidence of bowel cancer (with the European population as a standard) fell from 66.1 to 57.0 cases per 100 000 persons per year (-13.8%) in men and from 42.6 to 36.5 per 100 000 persons per year (-14.3%) in women. In parallel with these changes, the age-standardized mortality from bowel cancer fell by 20.8% in men and by 26.5% in women. In the age groups 55-64, 65-74, and 75-84 years, the cumulative risk of receiving a diagnosis of bowel cancer fell by 17-26%; in persons under age 55, this risk fell by only 3% in men, but increased by 14% in women. Long-term data from the cancer registry in the German federal state of Saarland revealed that the incidence of bowel cancer, but not its mortality, had risen over the decades preceding the study; it was only during the period of investigation that the trend reversed itself.

CONCLUSION

Within 10 years of the introduction of screening colonoscopy in Germany, the incidence of bowel cancer in persons over age 55 fell by 17-26%, after having risen steadily over the preceding decades.

Age- and Sex-Specific Trends in Lung Cancer Mortality over 62 Years in a Nation with a Low Effort in Cancer Prevention

BACKGROUND

A decrease in lung cancer mortality among females below 50 years of age has been reported for countries with significant tobacco control efforts. The aim of this study was to describe the lung cancer deaths, including the mortality rates and proportions among total deaths, for females and males by age at death in a country with a high smoking prevalence (Germany) over a time period of 62 years.

METHODS

The vital statistics data were analyzed using a joinpoint regression analysis stratified by age and sex. An age-period-cohort analysis was used to estimate the potential effects of sex and school education on mortality.

RESULTS

After an increase, lung cancer mortality among women aged 35-44 years remained stable from 1989 to 2009 and decreased by 10.8% per year from 2009 to 2013.

CONCLUSIONS

Lung cancer mortality among females aged 35-44 years has decreased. The potential reasons include an increase in the number of never smokers, following significant increases in school education since 1950, particularly among females.

Exploring Geographic Variability in Cancer Prevalence in Eastern Morocco: A Retrospective Study over Eight Years

BACKGROUND

Malignant diseases have been believed to be more common in some areas of Eastern Morocco, but until now, cancer patterns have not been reported for this region. In this paper we present for the first time the cancer prevalence analysis in Eastern Morocco.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study carried out among all patients diagnosed and/or treated with cancer at the Hassan II Regional Oncology Center (ROC) since it was established in October 2005 until December 2012. The ROC is the only hospital specialized in cancer care in Eastern Morocco.

RESULTS

A total of 8,508 cases of cancer were registered among residents in Eastern Morocco, with a female to male ratio of 2.1. The mean age at diagnosis was 53.9 ± 15.2 years (median age = 53 years). Thus, unlike in Western countries, cancer in Eastern Morocco afflicts younger population. The areas of Eastern Morocco did not differ significantly by mean age at diagnosis (p = 0.061). However, these regions differed significantly by sex ratio (p < 0.001). The highest sex ratio was observed in Figuig, with a female to male ratio of 3.1 (75.4% of the registered case were females), followed respectively by Taourirt, Oujda-Angad, Berkane, Nador-Driouch and Jerada. Clear variation in the distribution of cancer types between areas of Eastern Morocco was observed, both in males and females (p < 0.001). Furthermore, the areas of Eastern Morocco differed significantly by cancer prevalence (p < 0.001). The highest age-standardized five-year prevalence proportion was observed in Oujda-Angad with 420.2 per 100,000, followed respectively by Berkane (311.4), Jerada (287.8), Taourirt (269.3), Nador-Driouch (213.6) and Figuig (194.4). Trends in the five-year prevalence proportions decreased in Oujda-Angad, Berkane and Jerada throughout the study period, while an increasing trend was observed in Nador-Driouch, Taourirt and Figuig.

CONCLUSIONS

For the first time, our study presents the pattern and distribution of diagnosed cancers in Eastern Morocco. Our study illustrates substantial differences in cancer patterns between areas of Eastern Morocco. These findings are important for cancer control and highlight the need to develop program aiming at controlling and preventing the spread of major cancer sites in Eastern Morocco, particularly in areas with increased cancer prevalence rates.