Coverage, efficacy or dosing interval: which factor predominantly influences the impact of routine childhood vaccination for the prevention of varicella? A model-based study for Italy

The epidemiology of varicella and effectiveness of varicella vaccine in Ganyu, China: a long-term community surveillance study

BACKGROUND

The real-world data of long-term protection under moderate vaccination coverage is limited. This study aimed to evaluate varicella epidemiology and the long-term effectiveness under moderate coverage levels in Ganyu District, Lianyungang City, Jiangsu Province.

METHODS

This was a population-based, retrospective birth cohort study based on the immunization information system (IIS) and the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (NNDSS) in Ganyu District. Varicella cases reported from 2009 to 2020 were included to describe the epidemiology of varicella, and eleven-year consecutive birth cohorts (2008-2018) were included to estimate the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of varicella by Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 155,232 native children and 3,251 varicella cases were included. The vaccination coverage was moderate with 37.1%, correspondingly, the annual incidence of varicella infection increased 4.4-fold from 2009 to 2020. A shift of the varicella cases to older age groups was observed, with the peak proportion of cases shifting from 5-6 year-old to 7-8 year-old. The adjusted effectiveness of one dose of vaccine waned over time, and the adjusted VE decreased from 72.9% to 41.8% in the one-dose group.

CONCLUSIONS

The insufficient vaccination coverage (37.1%) may have contributed in part to the rising annual incidence of varicella infection, and a shift of varicella cases to older age groups occurred. The effectiveness of one dose of varicella vaccine was moderate and waned over time. It is urgent to increase varicella vaccine coverage to 80% to reduce the incidence of varicella and prevent any potential shift in the age at infection in China.

A Dynamic Compartmental Model to Explore the Optimal Strategy of Varicella Vaccination: An Epidemiological Study in Jiangsu Province, China

Varicella (chickenpox) is highly contagious among children and frequently breaks out in schools. In this study, we developed a dynamic compartment model to explore the optimal schedule for varicella vaccination in Jiangsu Province, China. A susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model was proposed to simulate the transmission of varicella in different age groups. The basic reproduction number was computed by the kinetic model, and the impact of three prevention factors was assessed through the global sensitivity analysis. Finally, the effect of various vaccination scenarios was qualitatively evaluated by numerical simulation. The estimated basic reproduction number was 1.831 ± 0.078, and the greatest contributor was the 5-10 year-old group (0.747 ± 0.042, 40.80%). Sensitivity analysis indicated that there was a strong negative correlation between the second dose vaccination coverage rate and basic reproduction number. In addition, we qualitatively found that the incidence would significantly decrease as the second dose vaccine coverage expands. The results suggest that two-dose varicella vaccination should be mandatory, and the optimal age of second dose vaccination is the 5-10 year-old group. Optimal vaccination time, wide vaccine coverage along with other measures, could enhance the effectiveness of prevention and control of varicella in China.

Evaluating the impact of universal varicella vaccination among preschool-aged children in Qingdao, China: An interrupted time-series analysis

Varicella is a contagious disease of children. Qingdao administrated free one-dose and free two-dose universal varicella vaccination schedules in 2013 and 2016 for preschool children. The effectiveness of the vaccination was analyzed in this study. Monthly varicella incidence data of 1-6 years old children during 2007-2020 were obtained from the Qingdao Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System. We applied Interrupted time series and segmented regression analyses to assess changes in varicella incidence at the beginning of each month and average monthly changes during the vaccination. The vaccination was associated with a reduction of 32.7% in varicella morbidity on average during the 8-year intervention, there is a statistically significant difference between the voluntary period and free vaccination period (χ² = 290.80,P < 0.001). Immediately after the free one-dose vaccination implementation in 2013 and free two-dose vaccination implementation in 2016, varicella incidence decreased by 0.135 cases per 100 000 population (P < 0.001) and increased by 1.189 cases per 100 000 population (P = 0.039), respectively, the results were statistically significant. There were significant declining trends in varicella incidence after free vaccination: 0.135(P < 0.001) and 0.055 (P = 0.025) per month in 2013.7-2016.6 and 2016.7-2020.12, respectively. This study shows a further decaying trend of varicella incidence based on the impact of free two-dose vaccination. It is necessary to prolong free two-dose universal varicella vaccination to strengthen the immune barrier of preschool children sequentially.

Decline in hospitalization rates for herpes zoster in Italy (2003-2018): reduction in the burden of disease or changing of hospitalization criteria?

BACKGROUND

Herpes Zoster (HZ) is a very demanding disease caused by the reactivation of latent Varicella Zoster Virus. The main aim of this study was to estimate the burden of the HZ hospitalizations in Italy from 2003 to 2018 evaluating temporal trends.

METHODS

Retrospective population-based study analyzing Hospital Discharge Records. Hospitalization records reporting the ICD-9 CM 053.X code in the principal diagnosis or in any of the five secondary diagnoses were considered as cases. Trends of hospitalization rates have been evaluated by Joinpoint analyses.

RESULTS

Overall, 99,036 patients were hospitalized with HZ in the 16-year period of the study, and 83,720 (84.5%) of these patients were over 50 years. Hospitalization rate was 10.4 per 100,000 persons/year with a significant decreasing trend from 13.9 in 2003-2006 to 7.8 in 2015-2018 (p < 0.001). Hospitalization rates showed a 20-fold higher risk among subjects aged over 80 years and 11-fold higher risk among 70-79-year-old subjects with respect to those aged less than 50 years. Over time, a statistically significant increase was observed for the case fatality rate (from 1.2 to 1.7%; p < 0.001) and the median length of stay (from 7 to 8 days; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Zoster is a disease that causes hospitalization as relatively frequent complication and the observed reduced trend over time could be due to a restriction in hospitalization criteria instead of a reduced burden of disease. The decreasing trend should be carefully interpreted, since it could have an impact on promoting herpes zoster vaccination.

Epidemiological Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Varicella Vaccination Strategies in the United Kingdom

Background

Despite the burden of varicella, there is no universal varicella vaccination (UVV) program in the United Kingdom (UK) due to concerns that it could increase herpes zoster (HZ) incidence. We assessed the cost-utility of a first-dose monovalent (varicella [V]) or quadrivalent (measles-mumps-rubella-varicella [MMRV]) followed by a second-dose MMRV UVV program. GSK and MSD varicella-containing vaccines (VCVs) were considered.

Methods

Dynamic transmission and cost-effectiveness models were adapted to the UK. Outcomes measured included varicella and HZ incidences and the incremental cost-utility ratio (ICURs) over a lifetime horizon. Payer and societal perspectives were evaluated.

Results

The impact of V-MMRV and MMRV-MMRV UVV programs on varicella incidence was comparable between both VCVs at equilibrium. HZ incidence increased by 1.6%–1.7% over 7 years after UVV start, regardless of the strategies, then decreased by >95% at equilibrium. ICURs ranged from £5665 (100 years) to £18 513 (20 years) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained with V-MMRV and from £9220 to £27 101 per QALY gained with MMRV-MMRV (payer perspective). MMRV-MMRV was cost-effective in the medium- and long-terms with GSK VCV and only cost-effective in the long term with MSD VCV at a £20 000 per QALY gained threshold. Without the exogenous boosting hypothesis, HZ incidence decreased through UVV implementation. ICURs were most sensitive to discount rates and MMRV price.

Conclusions

A 2-dose UVV was demonstrated to be a cost-effective alternative to no vaccination. With comparable effectiveness as MSD VCV at lower costs, GSK VCV may offer higher value for the money.

Impact of six years of routine varicella vaccination on the disease-related hospitalizations at Minas Gerais, Brazil

INTRODUCTION

The varicella vaccine was first introduced into the Brazilian immunization schedule in September 2013 as a single dose for children aged 15 months. In 2018, a second dose was recommended for individuals between 4 and 6 years old. This study aims to assess the impact of routine varicella vaccination on the number and profile of hospitalized varicella patients during the single dose period, as well as in the first two years after the adoption of the second dose.

METHODS

An observational retrospective study was conducted in an infectious disease pediatric hospital, in Minas Gerais, Brazil. Clinical as well as epidemiological data from patients hospitalized due to varicella between 2010 and 2019 were collected. Patients were split into groups based on the vaccine introduction: pre-vaccine period, single dose and two-dose period. They were compared by age, sex, reason for admission, illness-related complications and clinical outcome.

RESULTS

There were 1193 admissions due to varicella during the studied period. When compared with the pre-vaccine period, the number of hospitalizations decreased in 61.5% during the single-dose regime, reaching 95.2% in the two-dose period. Hospitalization rates decreased in all age groups, including non-vaccinated individuals such as those younger than 12 months (92.1%). As for reasons of admission, secondary bacterial skin infections were perceived to be the most common cause (>70%). A reduction was also seen in admission of immunocompromised or HIV positive patients (84.8%).

CONCLUSION

The collected data shows a significant impact in the number of hospital admissions due to varicella after six years of the implementation of the vaccine, positively affecting both vaccinated and non-vaccinated individuals. Further reduction was seen after the second dose was initiated, but its true impact will only be understood fully after a longer period of continuous vaccination.

Clinical and economic impact of universal varicella vaccination in Norway: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

Norway has not implemented universal varicella vaccination, despite the considerable clinical and economic burden of varicella disease.

METHODS

An existing dynamic transmission model of varicella infection was calibrated to age-specific seroprevalence rates in Norway. Six two-dose vaccination strategies were considered, consisting of combinations of two formulations each of a monovalent varicella vaccine (Varivax® or Varilrix®) and a quadrivalent vaccine against measles-mumps-rubella-varicella (ProQuad® or PriorixTetra®), with the first dose given with a monovalent vaccine at age 15 months, and the second dose with either a monovalent or quadrivalent vaccine at either 18 months, 7 or 11 years. Costs were considered from the perspectives of both the health care system and society. Quality-adjusted life-years saved and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios relative to no vaccination were calculated. A one-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the impact of vaccine efficacy, price, the costs of a lost workday and of inpatient and outpatient care, vaccination coverage, and discount rate.

RESULTS

In the absence of varicella vaccination, the annual incidence of natural varicella is estimated to be 1,359 per 100,000 population, and the cumulative numbers of varicella outpatient cases, hospitalizations, and deaths over 50 years are projected to be 1.81 million, 10,161, and 61, respectively. Universal varicella vaccination is projected to reduce the natural varicella incidence rate to 48-59 per 100,000 population, depending on the vaccination strategy, and to reduce varicella outpatient cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by 75-85%, 67-79%, and 75-79%, respectively. All strategies were cost-saving, with the most cost-saving as two doses of Varivax® at 15 months and 7 years (payer perspective) and two doses of Varivax® at 15 months and 18 months (societal perspective).

CONCLUSIONS

All modeled two-dose varicella vaccination strategies are projected to lead to substantial reductions in varicella disease and to be cost saving compared to no vaccination in Norway.

Health Impact and Cost-effectiveness Assessment for the Introduction of Universal Varicella Vaccination in Switzerland

BACKGROUND

Varicella, caused by the varicella-zoster virus, is a highly contagious infectious disease with substantial health and economic burden to society. Universal varicella vaccination (UVV) is not yet recommended by the Swiss National Immunization Program, which instead recommends catch-up immunization for children, adolescents and adults 11-40 years of age who have no reliable history of varicella or are varicella-zoster virus-IgG seronegative. The objective of this study was to perform an assessment of health impact and cost-effectiveness comparing UVV with current practice and recommendations in Switzerland.

METHODS

A dynamic transmission model for varicella was adapted to Switzerland comparing 2 base-case schedules (no infant vaccination and 10% coverage with infant vaccination) to 3 different UVV schedules using quadrivalent (varicella vaccine combined with measles-mumps-rubella) and standalone varicella vaccines administered at different ages. Modeled UVV coverage rates were based on current measles-mumps-rubella coverage of approximately 95% (first dose) and 90% (second dose). Direct medical costs and societal perspectives were considered, with cost and outcomes discounted and calculated over a 50-year time horizon.

RESULTS

UVV would reduce the number of varicella cases by 88%-90%, hospitalizations by 62%-69% and deaths by 75%-77%. UVV would increase direct medical costs by Swiss Franc (CHF) 39-49 (US $43-54) per capita and costs from a societal perspective by CHF 32-40 (US $35-44). Incremental quality-adjusted life-years per capita increased by 0.0012-0.0014. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for the UVV schedules versus the base-case were CHF 31,194-35,403 (US $34,452-39,100) per quality-adjusted life-year from the direct medical cost perspective and CHF 25,245-29,552 (US $27,881-32,638) from the societal perspective.

CONCLUSIONS

UVV appears highly effective and cost-effective when compared with current clinical practice and recommendations in Switzerland from both a direct medical costs perspective and societal perspective.

Ten-year follow-up on efficacy, immunogenicity and safety of two doses of a combined measles-mumps-rubella-varicella vaccine or one dose of monovalent varicella vaccine: Results from five East European countries

BACKGROUND

We assessed the 10-year efficacy, immunogenicity and safety of two doses of a combined measles-mumps-rubella-varicella vaccine (MMRV) or one dose of a monovalent varicella vaccine (V) in children from Czech Republic, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.

METHODS

This was a phase IIIB follow-up of an observer-blind, randomized, controlled trial (NCT00226499). In phase A, healthy children aged 12-22 months from 10 European countries were randomized in a 3:3:1 ratio to receive two doses of MMRV (MMRV group), one dose of MMR followed by one dose of V (MMR + V group), or two doses of MMR (MMR; control group), 42 days apart. Vaccine efficacy (VE) against varicella (confirmed by viral DNA detection or epidemiological link and clinical assessment) was calculated with 95% confidence intervals using Cox proportional hazards regression model. Immunogenicity was assessed as seropositivity rates and geometric mean concentrations (GMCs). Solicited and unsolicited adverse events (AEs) and serious AEs (SAEs) were recorded.

RESULTS

A total of 3705 children were vaccinated (1590, MMRV group; 1586, MMR + V group; 529, MMR group). There were 663 confirmed varicella cases (47, MMRV group; 349, MMR + V group; 267, MMR group). VE ranged between 95.4% (Lithuania) and 97.4% (Slovakia) in the MMRV group and between 59.3% (Lithuania) and 74% (Slovakia) in the MMR + V group. At year 10, seropositivity rates were 99.5%-100% in the MMRV group, 98%-100% in the MMR + V group and 50%-100% in the MMR control group, and the anti-VZV antibody GMCs were comparable between MMRV and MMR + V groups. The occurrence of solicited and unsolicited AEs was similar across groups and no SAE was considered as vaccination-related. No new safety concerns were identified.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicated that two doses of varicella zoster virus-containing vaccine provided better protection than one dose against varicella and induced antibody responses that persisted 10 years post-vaccination.

Looking beyond COVID-19 vaccine phase 3 trials

After the recent announcement of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy in clinical trials by several manufacturers for protection against severe disease, a comprehensive post-efficacy strategy for the next steps to ensure vaccination of the global population is now required. These considerations should include how to manufacture billions of doses of high-quality vaccines, support for vaccine purchase, coordination of supply, the equitable distribution of vaccines and the logistics of global vaccine delivery, all of which are a prelude to a massive vaccination campaign targeting people of all ages. Furthermore, additional scientific questions about the vaccines remain that should be answered to improve vaccine efficacy, including questions regarding the optimization of vaccination regimens, booster doses, the correlates of protection, vaccine effectiveness, safety and enhanced surveillance. The timely and coordinated execution of these post-efficacy tasks will bring the pandemic to an effective, and efficient, close.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Universal Varicella Vaccination in Italy: A Model-Based Assessment of Vaccination Strategies

Background

In 2017, varicella vaccination became mandatory for all children in Italy, based on a two-dose schedule administered at 12–15 months of age and 5 to 6 years of age. Varicella vaccines are available in different formulations (as a single vaccine or as a combination vaccine together with measles, mumps, and rubella) and are made by multiple manufacturers with different effectiveness profiles. This study calculates the cost-effectiveness of a range of varicella vaccination strategies to identify the optimal strategy for Italy.

Methods

A dynamic transmission cost-effectiveness model was applied in Italy to simulate the long-term (50 years) costs and outcomes associated with different varicella vaccination strategies. Five vaccination strategies were evaluated using the model: two doses of two different combination Measles-Mumps-Rubella-Varicella vaccines (either Vaccine A (MSD) [denoted QQVa] or Vaccine B (GSK) [denoted QQVb]); a first dose of a single Varicella vaccine followed by a second dose of a combination vaccine (either Vaccine C (MSD) followed by Vaccine A [denoted MQVa] or Vaccine D (GSK) followed by Vaccine B [denoted MQVb]); or no vaccine at all (NV). The model was adapted for Italy using publicly available Italian data and expert opinion.

Results

Over the 50-year time-horizon, in the absence of universal varicella vaccination, there would be 34.8 million varicella cases, 142 varicella-infection-related deaths, and €23 billion in societal costs. The cost per capita from a societal perspective ranged from €164.55 to €392.18 with NV being the most expensive and QQVa the least expensive. The most effective strategy was QQVa, which resulted in a 66% decrease in varicella cases and 30% reduction in varicella-related deaths compared to NV strategy. QQVa led to a net saving in societal cost around €13 billion compared to NV as the cost of vaccination was more than offset by the savings that resulted from the reduced burden of illness.

Conclusion

Varicella vaccination has a major impact on reducing varicella incidence, prevalence, and societal costs. This analysis supports the policy for universal varicella vaccination in Italy as the NV strategy was the most expensive and resulted in the poorest outcomes. QQVa offers the greatest benefits at the lowest cost and should be considered as a potential priority strategy for Italian population.

The impact of long-term moderate level of vaccination coverage for epidemiology of varicella in Lu'an, China: should we change immunisation strategy now?

As China implements the voluntary vaccination programme of one-dose of varicella vaccine (VarV) for decades, robust estimates of the impact of voluntary vaccination era on epidemiology of varicella are needed. We estimated the vaccination coverage (VC) of VarV by using surveillance data on immunisation. The descriptive epidemiological method was used to describe the changing epidemiology of varicella from 2007 to 2018. The screening method was used to estimate the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of VarV. The overall VC for VarV was 71.7%, ranged from 47.7% to 79.5% among 2008–2017 birth cohorts. In total, 16 660 varicella cases were reported during 2007–2018, the incidence increased from 10.0 cases per 100 000 population in 2007 to 65.2 cases per 100 000 population in 2018. A shift in age group of varicella was observed since 2012, with the age increased from 5–9 years to 10–14 years. The overall VE was 79.9%, and the VE increased from 60.1% in 2008 birth cohort to 96.2% in 2017 birth cohort. We found that the overall VE for VarV is moderate, but appears highly effective within 5 years after vaccination. In addition, a shift varicella infection to older ages has occurred at the long-term moderate level VC of one-dose VarV. Therefore, to contain the incidence of varicella and prevent any potential shift to older ages, the introduction of VarV into routine immunisation programme is likely needed in Lu'an.

Clinical characteristics and risk factors associated with breakthrough varicella during varicella outbreaks

BACKGROUND

Although a varicella vaccine has been available in China since 1998 in the private sector, varicella outbreaks and breakthrough varicella (BV) still occur. In 2018, four varicella outbreaks with high BV rate sequentially occurred in four schools in Lu'an, sparking local public health authority's concerns on the varicella vaccine. Therefore, we conducted this investigation to evaluate varicella vaccine effectiveness (VE), characterize BV, and detect potential risk factors associated with BV.

METHODS

This was a three-stage study. First, a retrospective cohort study was done in each school to estimate the VEs of varicella vaccine  during outbreaks. Second, a descriptive epidemiological method was used to describe the characteristics of the four outbreaks and to compare the clinical characteristics between the BV cases and unvaccinated varicella cases. To identify the risk factors associated with BV, we conducted an unmatched case-control study in the third stage of the study.

RESULTS

A total of 199 cases were identified among four outbreaks, and the overall attack rate was 14%. Of 1203 students with available vaccination information, 822 (68%) were vaccinated at least once. The overall VEs among four outbreaks ranged from 19% to 69%, whereas the VE against moderate or severe varicella ranged from 74% to 90%. Compared with unvaccinated varicella cases, the moderate or severe varicella (p < .001) and fever (p = .029) in the BV group were less common. Besides, BV cases had a shorter duration of disease (p = .007). Children vaccinated more than six years before the outbreak had a higher risk of developing BV compared with those vaccinated within the past six years (OR = 2.4, 95% CI: 1.2-4.8). The risk of developing BV differed by the exposure intensity. Compared with the presence of three or fewer varicella cases in the same class, the OR was 7.8 (95% CI: 3.6-16.9) for four to nine cases in the same class and 25.2 (95% CI: 13.5 -47.2) for that of 10 or more cases.

CONCLUSIONS

The overall VE was insufficient to protect varicella infection, and the VE for moderate or severe varicella was only moderate. The manifestations of BV cases were generally milder than those seen in natural varicella infection. The time since vaccination and the intensity of exposure are risk factors for developing BV during an outbreak.

A persistent outbreak of varicella in a primary school in Dongguan City, Guangdong Province, China

Objectives

To describe the epidemiological features of a school varicella outbreak in Dongguan City, China, to identify the reasons underlying persistent spread, and to assess the effectiveness of the varicella vaccine.

Methods

We identified all cases during the outbreak. We described the outbreak epidemic course and examined the influence of the following variables on the outbreak: sleeping in the dormitory, eating in school, taking school transportation, hand-washing habits, morning examinations, and effectiveness of case isolation. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio and 95% confidence interval (CI) of contracting varicella.

Results

A total of 92 varicella cases were reported, accounting for 5.53% (92/1663) of all students. Among cases, 64.13% (59/92) were vaccinated. The outbreak lasted for 93 days and occurred in six generations. Vaccination coverage was between 78.05% and 85.67%. The varicella vaccine was effective in 56.63% of recipients (95% CI: 35.49–70.84%). Vaccine effectiveness significantly decreased after 4–6 years.

Conclusions

The varicella vaccine was unable to prevent virus spread even with high vaccination coverage. Delayed and inefficient isolation of cases was the primary cause of the persistent outbreak.

Budget impact analysis of multiple varicella vaccination strategies: a Mexico perspective

A number of live-attenuated varicella vaccines are produced globally that provide protection against the varicella zoster virus. In Mexico, varicella vaccination is not included in the national immunization program and is recommended for use only in high-risk subgroups. We developed a budget impact model to estimate the impact of universal childhood immunization against varicella on the national payer system in Mexico. A scenario of no varicella vaccination was compared to scenarios with vaccination with a single dose at 13 months of age, in alignment with the existing program of immunization with the measles-mumps-rubella vaccine. Nine different vaccination scenarios were envisioned, differing by vaccine type and by coverage. Varicella cases and treatment costs of each scenario were computed in a dynamic transmission model of varicella epidemiology, calibrated to the population of Mexico. Unit costs were based on Mexico sources or were from the literature. The results indicated that each of the three vaccine types increased vaccine acquisition and administration expenditures but produced overall cost savings in each of the first 10 years of the program, due to fewer cases and reduced varicella treatment costs. A highly effective vaccine at 95% coverage produced the greatest cost savings.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of universal varicella vaccination in Turkey using a dynamic transmission model

BACKGROUND

In 2013, Turkey introduced one-dose universal varicella vaccination (UVV) at 12 months of age. Inclusion of a second dose is being considered.

METHODS

We developed a dynamic transmission model to evaluate three vaccination strategies: single dose at 12 months (1D) or second dose at either 18 months (2D-short) or 6 years of age (2D-long). Costs and utilization were age-stratified and separated into inpatient and outpatient costs for varicella and herpes zoster (HZ). We ran the model including and excluding HZ-related costs and impact of exogenous boosting.

RESULTS

Five years post-introduction of UVV (1D), the projected varicella incidence rate decreases from 1,674 cases pre-vaccine to 80 cases/100,000 person-years. By 25 years, varicella incidence equilibrates at 39, 12, and 16 cases/100,000 person-years for 1D, 2D-short, and 2D-long strategies, respectively, using a highly effective vaccine. With or without including exogenous boosting impact and/or HZ-related costs and health benefits, the 1D strategy is least costly, but 2-dose strategies are cost-effective considering a willingness-to-pay threshold equivalent to the gross domestic product. The model predicted a modest increase in HZ burden during the first 20-30 years, after which time HZ incidence equilibrates at a lower rate than pre-vaccine.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support adding a second varicella vaccine dose in Turkey, as doing so is highly cost-effective across a wide range of assumptions regarding the burden associated with varicella and HZ disease.

Varicella zoster virus vaccines: an update

Varicella zoster virus (VZV) is the etiological agent of varicella, a highly infectious, self-limiting disease with serious complications. The decline in cell-mediated immunity (CMI) that occurs with aging or immunodepression causes a reactivation of the latent VZV as herpes zoster (HZ). Prevention of VZV through varicella vaccination strategies allows to avoid the primary infection in newborns and susceptible subjects. Available monovalent and combined VZV vaccines are effective, safe and generally well tolerated. Universal varicella vaccination has significantly impacted on incidence, complications and deaths related to this disease. Prevention of HZ through vaccination is a priority to avoid the significant burden of its incidence and complications. Currently two HZ vaccines are available. The recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV), approved by the FDA in 2017 and Zoster Vaccine Live (ZVL) licensed in the United States by the FDA in 2006. The advisory committee on immunization practices (ACIP) preferentially recommends RZV. ZVL remains an option for prevention of HZ in immunocompetent adults aged ≥60 years, although the CMI tends to wane a few years after vaccination.

Understanding the role of exogenous boosting in modeling varicella vaccination

INTRODUCTION

The exogenous boosting (EB) hypothesis posits that cell-mediated immunity is boosted for individuals reexposed to varicella-zoster virus (VZV). Historically, mathematical models of the impact of universal childhood varicella vaccination (UVV) have used limited data to capture EB and often conclude that UVV will temporarily increase herpes zoster (HZ) incidence.

AREAS COVERED

We updated a 2013 systematic literature review of 40 studies to summarize new evidence from observational or modeling studies related to EB and its parameterization. We abstracted data on observational study designs and mathematical model structures, EB frameworks, and HZ-related parameter values.

EXPERT COMMENTARY

This review identified an additional 41 studies: 22 observational and 19 modeling studies. Observational analyses generally reported pre-UVV increases in HZ incidence, making it difficult to attribute post-UVV increases to UVV versus other causes. Modeling studies considered a range of EB frameworks, from no boosting to full permanent immunity. Mathematical modeling efforts are needed in countries with long-standing vaccination programs to capture the dynamics of VZV transmission and temporal changes that may affect HZ incidence. Use of real-world pre-/postvaccination data on varicella and HZ incidence to validate model predictions may improve approaches to EB parameterization and understanding of the effects of varicella vaccination programs.

Impact of vaccination programs against measles, varicella and meningococcus C in Italy and in Tuscany and public health policies in the last decades

The World Health Organization (WHO) has established specific targets for control, elimination or eradication of some vaccine preventable infectious diseases, which were periodically updated. In Italy, WHO recommendations have been endorsed and implemented over time, through the national and regional health prevention plans. The aim of the study was to assess the impact of the immunization practices against measles, varicella and Neisseria meningitidis type C (Men C) in Italy and in Tuscany Region, during the last decades, by analyzing national and regional surveillance databases. Benefits of vaccination strategies were discussed from different points of view (clinical, epidemiological, economic, ethical, social and communicative). The implementation of measles, varicella and Men C vaccination, caused a considerable decrease of incidence rates over the years in Italy and in Tuscany too. However, in the last years, notifications of measles and Men C cases in subjects not targeted by immunization campaigns, in Italy and in Tuscany, are a cause for concern for public health and for the achievement of the elimination goals. Achieving and maintaining high vaccine coverage guarantees a decrease in the incidence of serious diseases and their clinical and economic consequences, but it is necessary to strengthen surveillance system of infectious diseases in order to monitor epidemiological trends. Moreover, outreach campaigns are necessary to raise awareness in the general population and create the culture of prevention with the same nationwide health goals for all.

Varicella vaccination - the global experience

INTRODUCTION

Varicella, although a frequently benign childhood disease, nevertheless represents a considerable health burden. WHO recommends including varicella vaccines in universal routine vaccination programs, and maintaining coverage >80%. Many countries have successfully introduced varicella vaccination and have benefited from lower disease burden, but many others have not adopted the vaccine. Reasons include cost commitment for a 'mild childhood disease' or concerns that vaccination will shift varicella to older age groups or increase herpes zoster incidence. Areas covered: This literature review summarizes the effectiveness and epidemiological impact of varicella immunization programs. Expert commentary: Varicella vaccines are immunogenic with acceptable safety profiles. One and two dose schedules are highly effective against varicella and large reductions in disease incidence, particularly moderate-severe disease, have been widely reported. There is currently no evidence to suggest that the introduction of varicella vaccination results in a shift of varicella disease burden to older age groups. Although epidemiological studies have shown an increased incidence of herpes zoster since the vaccines were launched, there are many other contributing factors, and indeed, this secular trend was evident before their introduction. In conclusion, varicella vaccination easily fits into existing immunization programs and significantly reduces the often underestimated burden of varicella.