Projections of the effects of global warming on the disease burden of ischemic heart disease in the elderly in Tianjin, China

Epidemiology of Ischemic Heart Disease Burden Attributable to High Temperature in Asia From GBD 2021

BACKGROUND

Ischemic heart disease (IHD) posed the highest global disease burden in 2021, with regional disparities in Asia. Moreover, climate change is exacerbating population exposure to high temperatures (Hi-Tem).

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to systematically assess the burden of IHD attributed to Hi-Tem in Asia, considering geographic and demographic factors.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 tools evaluated the IHD burden from Hi-Tem in Asia, and decomposition analysis was conducted to further explore the potential burden drivers.

RESULTS

Asia witnessed a significant increase in IHD burden caused by Hi-Tem, with 88,450 (95% UI: 15,815-188,816) deaths and 2,112,025.42 (95% UI: 456,758.65-4,325,643.47) disability-adjusted life years in 2021. Over the past 3 decades, the burden increased annually by 1.63% (95% CI: 1.25%-2.01%) in age-standardized mortality rate and by 1.60% (95% CI: 1.21%-1.99%) in age-standardized rate of disability-adjusted life years. Notably, South Asia bore the heaviest burden, whereas high-income Asia Pacific had the lightest. Men and older persons consistently faced a higher IHD burden from Hi-Tem. Despite generally balanced contributions from population growth, aging, and epidemiological changes, regional disparities may persist.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides a comprehensive overview of the demographic and geographic characteristics of the IHD burden attributable to Hi-Tem in Asia from 1990 to 2021. In summary, Asia's IHD burden caused by Hi-Tem rose significantly, with the greater impact on men and older populations.

Projected impact of climate change on human health in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) contribute relatively little to global carbon emissions but are recognised to be among the most vulnerable parts of the world to health-related consequences of climate change. To help inform resilient health systems and health policy strategies, we sought to systematically analyse published projections of the impact of rising global temperatures and other weather-related events on human health in LMICs. A systematic search involving multiple databases was conducted in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines to identify studies with modelled projections of the future impact of climate change on human health. Qualitative studies, reviews and meta-analyses were excluded. The search yielded more than 2500 articles, of which 70 studies involving 37 countries met criteria for inclusion. China, Brazil and India were the most studied countries while the sub-Saharan African region was represented in only 9% of studies. Forty specific health outcomes were grouped into eight categories. Non-disease-specific temperature-related mortality was the most studied health outcome, followed by neglected tropical infections (predominantly dengue), malaria and cardiovascular diseases. Nearly all health outcomes studied were projected to increase in burden and/or experience a geographic shift in prevalence over the next century due to climate change. Progressively severe climate change scenarios were associated with worse health outcomes. Knowledge gaps identified in this analysis included insufficient studies of various high burden diseases, asymmetric distribution of studies across LMICs and limited use of some climate parameters as independent variables. Findings from this review could be the basis for future research to help inform climate mitigation and adaptation programmes aimed at safeguarding population health in LMICs.

Health Co-Benefits of Environmental Changes in the Context of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality in China

IMPORTANCE

Climate change mitigation policies aimed at limiting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would bring substantial health co-benefits by directly alleviating climate change or indirectly reducing air pollution. As one of the largest developing countries and GHG emitter globally, China's carbon-peaking and carbon neutrality goals would lead to substantial co-benefits on global environment and therefore on human health. This review summarized the key findings and gaps in studies on the impact of China's carbon mitigation strategies on human health.

HIGHLIGHTS

There is a wide consensus that limiting the temperature rise well below 2 °C would markedly reduce the climate-related health impacts compared with high emission scenario, although heat-related mortalities, labor productivity reduction rates, and infectious disease morbidities would continue increasing over time as temperature rises. Further, hundreds of thousands of air pollutant-related mortalities (mainly due to PM2.5 and O3) could be avoided per year compared with the reference scenario without climate policy. Carbon reduction policies can also alleviate morbidities due to acute exposure to PM2.5. Further research with respect to morbidities attributed to nonoptimal temperature and air pollution, and health impacts attributed to precipitation and extreme weather events under current carbon policy in China or its equivalent in other developing countries is needed to improve our understanding of the disease burden in the coming decades.

CONCLUSIONS

This review provides up-to-date evidence of potential health co-benefits under Chinese carbon policies and highlights the importance of considering these co-benefits into future climate policy development in both China and other nations endeavoring carbon reductions.

Accounting for adaptation when projecting climate change impacts on health: A review of temperature-related health impacts

Exposure to high and low ambient temperatures can cause harm to human health. Due to global warming, heat-related health effects are likely to increase substantially in future unless populations adapt to living in a warmer world. Adaptation to temperature may occur through physiological acclimatisation, behavioural mechanisms, and planned adaptation. A fundamental step in informing responses to climate change is understanding how adaptation can be appropriately accounted for when estimating future health burdens. Previous studies modelling adaptation have used a variety of methods, and it is often unclear how underlying assumptions of adaptation are made and if they are based on evidence. Consequently, the most appropriate way to quantitatively model adaptation in projections of health impacts is currently unknown. With increasing interest from decisionmakers around implementation of adaptation strategies, it is important to consider the role of adaptation in anticipating future health burdens of climate change. To address this, a literature review using systematic scoping methods was conducted to document the quantitative methods employed by studies projecting future temperature-related health impacts under climate change that also consider adaptation. Approaches employed in studies were coded into methodological categories. Categories were discussed and refined between reviewers during synthesis. Fifty-nine studies were included and grouped into eight methodological categories. Methods of including adaptation in projections have changed over time with more recent studies using a combination of approaches or modelling adaptation based on specific adaptation strategies or socioeconomic conditions. The most common approaches to model adaptation are heat threshold shifts and reductions in the exposure-response slope. Just under 20% of studies were identified as using an intervention-based empirical basis for statistical assumptions. Including adaptation in projections considerably reduced the projected temperature-mortality burden in the future. Researchers should ensure that all future impact assessments include adaptation uncertainty in projections and assumptions are based on empirical evidence.

Trends in all-cause mortality and leading causes of death from 2009 to 2019 among older adults in China

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to determine long-term variations in mortality trends and identify the leading causes of death among older adults in China from 2009 to 2019 so as to propose interventions to further stabilise the mortality rate among older adults and facilitate healthy ageing.

METHODS

We extracted data from the China Death Surveillance database from 2009 to 2019 for all-cause mortality and cause-specific death among individuals aged ≥ 65 years. A joinpoint regression model was used to estimate mortality trends by calculating the annual percentage change (APC). A trend chi-square test was used to estimate sex differences in mortality, and descriptive analysis was used to estimate the leading causes of death. Semi-structured expert interviews were conducted to examine health interventions for older adults.

RESULTS

We observed an overall declining trend in age-adjusted mortality rates among older adults aged ≥ 65 years in China from 2009 to 2019 (APC, -2.44; P < 0.05). In this population, the male mortality rate was higher than the female mortality rate during this period (P < 0.05). However, the mortality rate among older adults aged ≥ 85 years increased since 2014, particularly among females. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) was the leading cause of death among older adults aged 65-84 years, whereas ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of death among individuals aged ≥ 85 years, especially among females. The majority of injuries resulting in death were caused by falls, showing an increasing trend.

CONCLUSIONS

CVD is a major cause of death among older adults aged ≥ 65 years in China, and relevant health intervention strategies should be implemented from the perspectives of physiology, psychology, and living environment. The change in the mortality trend and the distribution of cause of death among older adults aged ≥ 85 years is noteworthy; a diagnostic and management model centred around females aged ≥ 85 years should be implemented. Additionally, a multidimensional fall prevention strategy involving primary medical institutions and care services needs to be implemented to reduce the risk of falls among older adults.

Mortality trend analysis of ischemic heart disease in China between 2010 and 2019: a joinpoint analysis

BACKGROUND

This study presented the mortality trend of ischemic heart disease (IHD) in Chinese residents from 2010 to 2019 and provided a basis for further establishment of relevant interventions.

METHODS

Data, such as sex, age, urban and rural areas, and death status, were extracted from the China Death Surveillance Dataset from 2010 to 2019, with mortality and age-adjusted death rates (AADRs) as the main indicators. The joinpoint regression model was used to analyze mortality and AADRs trends in IHD. A semi-structured expert interview was conducted to propose targeted intervention measures and countermeasures.

RESULTS

We observed an overall upward trend in IHD mortality rates and AADRs in China from 2010 to 2019 (average annual percentage change [AAPC] = 5.14%, AAPC_AADRs = 1.60%, P < 0.001). Mortality rates and AADRs increased for both males (AAPC = 4.91%, AAPC_AADRs = 1.09%, P < 0.05) and females (AAPC = 5.57%, AAPC_AADRs = 1.84%, P < 0.001), with higher mortality rate for males than females but higher variation for females than males. Urban (AAPC = 4.80%, AAPC_AADRs = 1.76%, P < 0.05) and rural (AAPC = 5.31%, P < 0.001; AAPC_AADRs = 0.99%, P > 0.05) mortality rates increased, with the mortality rate higher in rural areas than in urban areas. In the age analysis, mortality rate was higher in middle-aged and older adults than in other age groups. The age-sex cross-analysis found the highest trend in mortality rates among females aged ≥ 75 years (annual percentage change [APC] = 2.43%, P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The upward trend in IHD mortality in China from 2010 to 2019, especially among female residents aged ≥ 75 years, poses continuing challenges to public health policies and actions.

The contribution of demographic changes to future heat-related health burdens under climate change scenarios

Anthropogenic climate change will have a detrimental impact on global health, including the direct impact of higher ambient temperatures. Existing projections of heat-related health outcomes in a changing climate often consider increasing ambient temperatures alone. Population growth and structure has been identified as a key source of uncertainty in future projections. Age acts as a modifier of heat risk, with heat-risk generally increasing in older age-groups. In many countries the population is ageing as lower birth rates and increasing life expectancy alter the population structure. Preparing for an older population, in particular in the context of a warmer climate should therefore be a priority in public health research and policy. We assess the level of inclusion of population growth and demographic changes in research projecting exposure to heat and heat-related health outcomes. To assess the level of inclusion of population changes in the literature, keyword searches of two databases were implemented, followed by reference and citation scans to identify any missed papers. Relevant papers, those including a projection of the heat health burden under climate change, were then checked for inclusion of population scenarios. Where sensitivity to population change was studied the impact of this on projections was extracted. Our analysis suggests that projecting the heat health burden is a growing area of research, however, some areas remain understudied including Africa and the Middle East and morbidity is rarely explored with most studies focusing on mortality. Of the studies pairing projections of population and climate, specifically SSPs and RCPs, many used pairing considered to be unfeasible. We find that not including any projected changes in population or demographics leads to underestimation of health burdens of on average 64 %. Inclusion of population changes increased the heat health burden across all but two studies.

Burden of dust storms on years of life lost in Seoul, South Korea: A distributed lag analysis

Although dust storms have been associated with adverse health outcomes, studies on the burden of dust storms on deaths are limited. As global warming has induced significant climate changes in recent decades, which have accelerated desertification worldwide, it is necessary to evaluate the burden of dust storm-induced premature mortality using a critical measure of disease burden, such as the years of life lost (YLL). The YLL attributable to dust storms have not been examined to date. This study investigated the association between Asian dust storms (ADS) and the YLL in Seoul, South Korea, during 2002-2013. We conducted a time-series study using a generalized additive model assuming a Gaussian distribution and applied a distributed lag model with a maximum lag of 5 days to investigate the delayed and cumulative effects of ADS on the YLL. We also conducted stratified analyses using the cause of death (respiratory and cardiovascular diseases) and sociodemographic status (sex, age, education level, occupation, and marital status). During the study period, 108 ADS events occurred, and the average daily YLL was 1511 years due to non-accidental causes. The cumulative ADS exposure over the 6-day lag period was associated with a significant increase of 104.7 (95% CI, 31.0-178.5 years) and 34.4 years (4.0-64.7 years) in the YLL due to non-accidental causes and cardiovascular mortality, respectively. Sociodemographic analyses revealed associations between ADS exposure and the YLL in males, both <65 and ≥ 65 years old, those with middle-level education, and the unemployed, unmarried, and widowed (26.5-83.8 years). This study provides new evidence suggesting that exposure to dust storms significantly increases the YLL. Our findings suggest that dust storms are a critical environmental risk affecting premature mortality. These results could contribute to the establishment of public health policies aimed at managing dust storm exposure and reducing premature deaths.

The effect and prediction of diurnal temperature range in high altitude area on outpatient and emergency room admissions for cardiovascular diseases

PURPOSE

Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a meteorological indicator closely associated with global climate change. Thus, we aim to explore the effects of DTR on the outpatient and emergency room (O&ER) admissions for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), and related predictive research.

METHODS

The O&ER admissions data for CVDs from three general hospitals in Jinchang of Gansu Province were collected from 2013 to 2016. A generalized additive model (GAM) with Poisson regression was employed to analyze the effect of DTR on the O&ER admissions for all cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stoke. GAM was also used to preform predictive research of the effect of DTR on the O&ER admissions for CVDs.

RESULTS

There were similar positive linear relationships between DTR and the O&ER visits with the four cardiovascular diseases. And the cumulative lag effects were higher than the single lag effects. A 1 °C increase in DTR corresponded to a 1.30% (0.99-1.62%) increase in O&ER admissions for all cardiovascular diseases. Males and elderly were more sensitivity to DTR. The estimates in non-heating season were higher than in heating season. The trial prediction accuracy rate of CVDs based on DTR was between 59.32 and 74.40%.

CONCLUSIONS

DTR has significantly positive association with O&ER admissions for CVDs, which can be used as a prediction index of the admissions of O&ER with CVDs.

Ambient high temperature exposure and global disease burden during 1990-2019: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

A warming climate throughout the 21st century makes ambient high temperature exposure a major threat to population health worldwide. Mitigating the health impact of high temperature requires a timely, comprehensive and reliable assessment of disease burden globally, regionally and temporally.

AIM

Based on Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019, this study aimed to evaluate the disease burden attributable to high temperature from various epidemiology perspectives.

METHODS

A three-stage analysis was undertaken to investigate the number and age-standardized rates of death and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) attributable to high temperature from GBD Study 2019. First, we reported the high temperature-related disease burden for the whole world and for different groups by gender, age, region, country and disease. Second, we examined the temporal trend of the disease burden attributable to high temperature from 1990 to 2019. Finally, we explored if and how the high temperature-related disease burden was modified by a number of country-level indicators.

RESULTS

Globally, high temperature accounted for 0.54% of death and 0.46% of DALY in 2019, equating to the age-standardized rates of death and DALY (per 100,000 population) of 3.99 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 2.88, 5.93) and 156.81 (95% UI: 107.98, 261.98), respectively. In 2019, the high temperature-related DALY and death rates were the highest for lower respiratory infections, although they showed a downward trend. In contrast, during 1990-2019, high temperature-related non-communicable diseases burden exhibited an upward trend. Meanwhile, the disease burden attributable to high temperature varied spatially, with the heaviest burden in regions with low sociodemographic index (SDI) and the lightest burden in regions with high SDI. In addition, high temperature-related disease burden appeared to be higher in a country with a higher population density and PM_2.5 concentration background but lower in a country with a higher density of greenness.

CONCLUSION

This study for the first time provided a comprehensive understanding of the global disease burden attributable to high temperature, underscoring the policy priority to protect human health worldwide in the context of global warming with particular attention to vulnerable countries or regions as well as susceptible population and diseases.

Epidemiology and the Magnitude of Coronary Artery Disease and Acute Coronary Syndrome: A Narrative Review

BACKGROUND

Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) is the foremost single cause of mortality and loss of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) globally. A large percentage of this burden is found in low and middle income countries. This accounts for nearly 7 million deaths and 129 million DALYs annually and is a huge global economic burden.

OBJECTIVE

To review epidemiological data of coronary artery disease and acute coronary syndrome in low, middle and high income countries.

METHODS

Keyword searches of Medline, ISI, IBSS and Google Scholar databases. Manual search of other relevant journals and reference lists of primary articles.

RESULTS

Review of the results of studies reveals the absolute global and regional trends of the CAD and the importance and contribution of CAD for global health. Data demonstrates which region or countries have the highest and lowest age-standardized DALY rates and what factors might explain these patterns. Results also show differences among the determinants of CAD, government policies, clinical practice and public health measures across the various regions of world.

CONCLUSION

CAD mortality and prevalence vary among countries. Estimation of the true prevalence of CAD in the population is complex. A significant number of countries have not provided data, the estimation of the exact figures for epidemiological data is a barrier. The incidence of CAD continues to fall in developed countries over the last few decades and this may be due to both effective treatment of the acute phase and improved primary and secondary preventive measures. Developing countries show considerable variability in the incidence of CAD. The globalization of the Western diet and increased sedentary lifestyle will have a dramatic influence on the progressive increase in the incidence of CAD in these countries.

Age-Related Changes in the Thermoregulatory Properties in Bank Voles From a Selection Experiment

As with many physiological performance traits, the capacity of endotherms to thermoregulate declines with age. Aging compromises both the capacity to conserve or dissipate heat and the thermogenesis, which is fueled by aerobic metabolism. The rate of metabolism, however, not only determines thermogenic capacity but can also affect the process of aging. Therefore, we hypothesized that selection for an increased aerobic exercise metabolism, which has presumably been a crucial factor in the evolution of endothermic physiology in the mammalian and avian lineages, affects not only the thermoregulatory traits but also the age-related changes of these traits. Here, we test this hypothesis on bank voles (Myodes glareolus) from an experimental evolution model system: four lines selected for high swim-induced aerobic metabolism (A lines), which have also increased the basal, average daily, and maximum cold-induced metabolic rates, and four unselected control (C) lines. We measured the resting metabolic rate (RMR), evaporative water loss (EWL), and body temperature in 72 young adult (4 months) and 65 old (22 months) voles at seven ambient temperatures (13-32°C). The RMR was 6% higher in the A than in the C lines, but, regardless of the selection group or temperature, it did not change with age. However, EWL was 12% higher in the old voles. An increased EWL/RMR ratio implies either a compromised efficiency of oxygen extraction in the lungs or increased skin permeability. This effect was more profound in the A lines, which may indicate their increased vulnerability to aging. Body temperature did not differ between the selection and age groups below 32°C, but at 32°C it was markedly higher in the old A-line voles than in those from other groups. As expected, the thermogenic capacity, measured as the maximum cold-induced oxygen consumption, was decreased by about 13% in the old voles from both selection groups, but the performance of old A-line voles was the same as that of the young C-line ones. Thus, the selection for high aerobic exercise metabolism attenuated the adverse effects of aging on cold tolerance, but this advantage has been traded off by a compromised coping with hot conditions by aged voles.