Spatiotemporal characteristics and the epidemiology of tuberculosis in China from 2004 to 2017 by the nationwide surveillance system

Association of urbanization-related factors with tuberculosis incidence among 1992 counties in China from 2005 to 2019: a nationwide observational study

BACKGROUND

Most high tuberculosis (TB) burden countries are in low- and middle-income regions undergoing rapid urbanization. We aimed to assess the association between urbanization factors and TB incidence in China.

METHODS

We evaluated urbanization at the county level in China from 2005 to 2019 using a composite index integrating population density, gross domestic product (GDP, per capita), hospital beds per 1000 population, nighttime light (NTL), and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The annual incidence rate and number of TB cases were obtained from the national Tuberculosis Information Management System, maintained by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Fixed-effects models were used to examine the association between urbanization factors and TB incidence. A subgroup analysis was performed by dividing counties into four regions: northeast, eastern, central, and western.

RESULTS

A total of 1992 counties in China were included in this study. Overall, urbanization scores were associated with reduced TB incidence (β = - 0.0114, P < 0.001), corresponding to a 1.1% reduction in TB incidence per unit score. Quadratic models presented a U-shaped relationship between urbanization and TB incidence with an inflection point at 52.94 urbanization units. For each indicator of urbanization, population density and the number of hospital beds were positively associated with TB incidence, with incidence rate ratios of 11.384 [95% confidence interval (CI): 9.337 to 13.881], and 1.015 (95% CI: 1.011 to 1.019), respectively, while GDP, NTL, and NDVI exhibited protective effects. Central China displayed an increase trend that urbanization score was linked to a 1.8% rise in TB incidence.

CONCLUSIONS

Urbanization-related factors, including GDP, NTL and NDVI, were inversely associated with TB incidence. Central China's contrasting results highlighted region-specific challenges. Therefore, governments in developing countries should adopt integrated approaches that promote both economic growth and sustainable development of environment during urbanization to optimize TB control efforts.

Evaluating the effectiveness of self-attention mechanism in tuberculosis time series forecasting

BACKGROUND

With the increasing impact of tuberculosis on public health, accurately predicting future tuberculosis cases is crucial for optimizing of health resources and medical service allocation. This study applies a self-attention mechanism to predict the number of tuberculosis cases, aiming to evaluate its effectiveness in forecasting.

METHODS

Monthly tuberculosis case data from Changde City between 2010 and 2021 were used to construct a self-attention model, a long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The performance of these models was evaluated using three metrics: root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

RESULTS

The self-attention model outperformed the other models in terms of prediction accuracy. On the test set, the RMSE of the self-attention model was approximately 7.41% lower than that of the LSTM model, MAE was reduced by about 10.99%, and MAPE was reduced by approximately 9.87%. Compared to the ARIMA model, RMSE was reduced by about 28.86%, MAE by about 32.22%, and MAPE by approximately 29.89%.

CONCLUSION

The self-attention model can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of tuberculosis cases, providing guidance for health departments optimizing of health resources and medical service allocation.

Analysis of Tuberculosis Epidemiological Distribution Characteristics in Fujian Province, China, 2005-2021: Spatial-Temporal Analysis Study

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) is a chronic infectious disease that harms human health for a long time. TB epidemiological distribution analysis can help governments to control TB in high TB incidence areas. The distribution trend of TB cases varies in different regions. The unbalanced temporal and spatial trends of pulmonary TB (PTB) risk at a fine level in Fujian Province remain unclear.

Objective

The purpose was to analyze different distribution characteristics, explore the prevalence of TB in this region, and provide a scientific basis for further guidance of TB control work in Fujian Province, China.

Methods

Prefectural-level and county-level notified PTB case data were collected in Fujian Province. A joinpoint regression model was constructed to analyze the unbalanced temporal patterns of PTB notification rates from 2005 to 2021 at prefecture-level city scales. The spatial clustering analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis were performed to assess the inequality of the locations of PTB cases. Demographical characteristics were explored by the method of descriptive analysis.

Results

TB cases reported in Fujian showed an overall downward trend from 2005 to 2021 (in 2005: n=32,728 and in 2021: n=15,155). TB case numbers showed obvious seasonal changes. The majority of TB cases were middle-aged and older adult male patients (45 years and older; n=150,201, 42.6%). Most of the TB cases were farmers (n=166,186, 47.1%), followed by houseworkers and the unemployed (n=48,828, 13.8%) and workers (n=34,482, 9.8%). Etiologically positive TB cases continue to be the main source of TB cases (n=159,702, 45.3%). Spatially, the reported TB cases were mainly distributed in cities in southeastern Fujian, especially at the county level. TB case numbers showed 2 spatial groups; cases within each group shared similar case characteristics. In terms of geographical distribution, TB showed obvious spatial correlation, and local areas showed high aggregation.

Conclusions

The TB incidence trend decreased annually in Fujian Province. TB cases distributed commonly in the male population, middle-aged and older people, and farmers. Etiologically positive cases are still the main source of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. TB incidence is higher in the cities with a developed economy and large population in the southeast. TB control should be strengthened in these populations and areas, such as via early screening of cases and management of confirmed cases.

Long- and short-run asymmetric impacts of climate variation on tuberculosis based on a time series study

Distinguishing between long-term and short-term effects allows for the identification of different response mechanisms. This study investigated the long- and short-run asymmetric impacts of climate variation on tuberculosis (TB) and constructed forecasting models using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL (NARDL). TB showed a downward trend, peaking in March-May per year. A 1 h increment or decrement in aggregate sunshine hours resulted in an increase of 32 TB cases. A 1 m/s increment and decrement in average wind velocity contributed to a decrement of 3600 and 5021 TB cases, respectively (Wald long-run asymmetry test [WLR] = 13.275, P < 0.001). A 1% increment and decrement in average relative humidity contributed to an increase of 115 and 153 TB cases, respectively. A 1 hPa increment and decrement in average air pressure contributed to a decrease of 318 and 91 TB cases, respectively (WLR = 7.966, P = 0.005). ∆temperature(-), ∆(sunshine hours)( -), ∆(wind velocity)(+) and ∆(wind velocity)(-) at different lags had a meaningful short-run effect on TB. The NARDL outperformed the ARDL in forecasting. Climate variation has significant long- and short-run asymmetric impacts on TB. By incorporating both dimensions of effects into the NARDL, the accuracy of the forecasts and policy recommendations for TB can be enhanced.

Spatiotemporal patterns and socioeconomic determinants of pulmonary tuberculosis in Dongguan city, China, during 2011-2020: an ecological study

OBJECTIVE

Pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is a critical challenge worldwide, particularly in China. This study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal transmission patterns and socioeconomic factors of PTB in Dongguan city, China.

METHODS/DESIGN

An ecological study based on the reported new PTB cases between 2011 and 2020 was conducted in Dongguan city, China. The spatiotemporal analysis methods were used to explore the long-term trend, spatiotemporal transmission pattern and socioeconomic factors of PTB.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The number of new PTB cases.

PARTICIPANTS

We collected 35 756 new PTB cases, including 23 572 males and 12 184 females.

RESULTS

The seasonal-trend decomposition indicated a significant downward trend for PTB with a significant peak in 2017 and 2018, and local spatial autocorrelation showed more and more high-high clusters in the central and north-central towns with high incidence. The multivariate spatial time series analysis revealed that the endemic component had a leading role in driving PTB transmission, with a high total effect value being 189.40 (95% CI: 171.65-207.15). A Bayesian spatiotemporal model revealed that PTB incidence is positively associated with the agricultural population ratio (relative risk (RR) =1.074), gender ratio (RR=1.104) and the number of beds in medical institutions (RR=1.028).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings revealed potential spatiotemporal variability and spatial aggregation of PTB, so targeted preventive strategies should be made in different towns based on spatiotemporal transmission patterns and risk factors.

Spatiotemporal analysis and seasonality of tuberculosis in Pudong New Area of Shanghai, China, 2014-2023

BACKGROUND

Spatiotemporal analysis is a vital method that plays an indispensable role in monitoring epidemiological changes in diseases and identifying high-risk clusters. However, there is still a blank space in the spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) incidence rate in Pudong New Area, Shanghai. Consequently, it is crucial to comprehend the spatiotemporal distribution of TB in this district, this will guide the prevention and control of TB in the district.

METHODS

Our research used Geographic Information System (GIS) visualization, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and space-time scan analysis to analyze the TB incidence reported in the Pudong New Area of Shanghai from 2014 to 2023, and described the spatiotemporal clustering and seasonal hot spot distribution of TB incidence.

RESULTS

From 2014 to 2023, the incidence of TB in the Pudong New Area decreased, and the mortality was at a low level. The incidence of TB in different towns/streets has declined. The spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed that the incidence of TB was spatially clustered in 2014, 2016-2018, and 2022, with the highest clusters in 2014 and 2022. The high clustering area was mainly concentrated in the northeast. The space-time scan analysis indicated that the most likely cluster was located in 12 towns/streets, with a period of 2014-2018 and a radiation radius of 15.74 km. The heat map showed that there was a correlation between TB incidence and seasonal variations.

CONCLUSIONS

From 2014 to 2023, the incidence of TB in the Pudong New Area of Shanghai declined, but there were spatiotemporal clusters and seasonal correlations in the incidence area. Local departments should formulate corresponding intervention measures, especially in high-clustering areas, to achieve accurate prevention and control of TB within the most effective time and scope.

Forecasting tuberculosis incidence: a review of time series and machine learning models for prediction and eradication strategies

Despite efforts by the World Health Organization (WHO), tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading cause of fatalities globally. This study reviews time series and machine learning models for TB incidence prediction, identifies popular algorithms, and highlights the need for further research to improve accuracy and global scope. SCOPUS, PUBMED, IEEE, Web of Science, and PRISMA were used for search and article selection from 2012 to 2023. The results revealed that ARIMA, SARIMA, ETS, GRNN, BPNN, NARNN, NNAR, and RNN are popular time series and ML algorithms adopted for TB incidence rate predictions. The inaccurate TB incidence prediction and limited global scope of prior studies suggest a need for further research. This review serves as a roadmap for the WHO to focus on regions that require more attention for TB prevention and the need for more sophisticated models for TB incidence predictions.

Tuberculosis incidence in Brazil: time series analysis between 2001 and 2021 and projection until 2030

OBJECTIVE

To assess the incidence of tuberculosis in Brazil between 2001 and 2022 and estimate the monthly incidence forecast until 2030.

METHODS

This is a time-series study based on monthly tuberculosis records from the Notifiable Diseases Information System and official projections of the Brazilian population. The monthly incidence of tuberculosis from 2001 to 2022 was evaluated using segmented linear regression to identify trend breaks. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (Sarima) was used to predict the monthly incidence from 2023 to 2030, deadline for achieving the sustainable development goals (SDGs).

RESULTS

There was a decrease in incidence between January/2001 and December/2014 (4.60 to 3.19 cases-month/100,000 inhabitants; β=-0.005; p<0.001), followed by an increase between January/2015 and March /2020 (β=0.013; p<0.001). There was a sharp drop in cases in April/2020, with the onset of the pandemic, and acceleration of the increase in cases since then (β=0.025; p<0.001). A projection of 124,245 cases in 2030 was made, with an estimated incidence of 4.64 cases-month/100,000 inhabitants, levels similar to those in the 2000s. The Sarima model proved to be robust, with error of 4.1% when removing the pandemic period.

CONCLUSION

The decreasing trend in tuberculosis cases was reversed from 2015 onwards, a period of economic crisis, and was also impacted by the pandemic when there was a reduction in records. The Sarima model can be a useful forecasting tool for epidemiological surveillance. Greater investments in prevention and control need to be made to reduce the occurrence of tuberculosis, in line with the SDGs.

Toward tuberculosis elimination by understanding epidemiologic characteristics and risk factors in Hainan Province, China

BACKGROUND

The disease burden of tuberculosis (TB) was heavy in Hainan Province, China, and the information on transmission patterns was limited with few studies. This atudy aims to further explore the epidemiological characteristics and influencing factors of TB in Hainan Province, and thereby contribute valuable scientific evidences for TB elimination in Hainan Province.

METHODS

The TB notification data in Hainan Province from 2013 to 2022 were collected from the Chinese National Disease Control Information System Tuberculosis Surveillance System, along with socio-economic data. The spatial-temporal and population distributions were analyzed, and spatial autocorrelation analysis was conducted to explore TB notification rate clustering. In addition, the epidemiological characteristics of the cases among in-country migrants were described, and the delay pattern in seeking medical care was investigated. Finally, a geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model was adopted to analyze the relationship between TB notification rate and socio-economic indicators. The tailored control suggestions in different regions for TB elimination was provided by understanding epidemiological characteristics and risk factors obtained by GTWR.

RESULTS

From 2013 to 2022, 64,042 cases of TB were notified in Hainan Province. The estimated annual percentage change of TB notification rate in Hainan Province from 2013 to 2020 was - 6.88% [95% confidence interval (CI): - 5.30%, - 3.69%], with higher rates in central and southern regions. The majority of patients were males (76.33%) and farmers (67.80%). Cases among in-country migrants primarily originated from Sichuan (369 cases), Heilongjiang (267 cases), Hunan (236 cases), Guangdong (174 cases), and Guangxi (139 cases), accounting for 53%. The majority (98.83%) of TB cases were notified through passive case finding approaches, with delay in seeking care. The GTWR analysis showed that gross domestic product per capita, the number of medical institutions and health personnel per 10,000 people were main factors affecting the high TB notification rates in some regions in Hainan Province. Different regional tailored measures such as more TB specialized hospitals were proposed based on the characteristics of each region.

CONCLUSIONS

The notification rate of TB in Hainan Province has been declining overall but still remained high in central and southern regions. Particular attention should be paid to the prevalence of TB among males, farmers, and out-of-province migrant populations. The notification rate was also influenced by economic development and medical conditions, indicating the need of more TB specialized hospitals, active surveillance and other tailored prevention and control measures to promote the progress of TB elimination in Hainan Province.

A long trend of sexually transmitted diseases before and after the COVID-19 pandemic in China (2010-21)

BACKGROUND

The longer ongoing benefits of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in China are still unclear. We aimed to explore the changes in five STDs (AIDS, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, gonorrhoea, and syphilis) before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic in mainland China, from 2010 to 2021.

METHODS

The number of the monthly reported cases of the five STDs were extracted from the website to construct the Joinpoint regression and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Eight indicators reflecting NPIs were chosen from the COVID-19 Government Response Tracker system. The STDs and eight indicators were used to establish the Multivariable generalised linear model (GLM) to calculate the incidence rate ratios (IRRs).

RESULTS

With the exception of hepatitis B, the other four STDs (AIDS, hepatitis C, gonorrhoea, and syphilis) had a positive average annual percent change over the past 12years. All the ARIMA models had passed the Ljung-Box test, and the predicted data fit well with the data from 2010 to 2019. All five STDs were significantly reduced in 2020 compared with 2019, with significant estimated IRRs ranging from 0.88 to 0.92. In the GLM, using data for the years 2020 (February-December) and 2021, the IRRs were not significant after adjusting for the eight indicators in multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSION

Our study demonstrated that the incidence of the five STDs decreased rapidly during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. A recovery of STDs in 2021 was found to occur compared with that in 2020, but the rising trend disappeared after adjusting for the NPIs. Our study demonstrated that NPIs have an effect on STDs, but the relaxation of NPI usage might lead to a resurgence.

Analysis of spatial characteristics and geographic weighted regression of tuberculosis prevalence in Kashgar, China

Number of cases of tuberculosis (TB) was higher than that of the national level in Kashgar, China. This study aimed to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of TB and the relationship between TB and social factors, which can provide a reference for the prevention and control of TB. We applied spatial autocorrelation analysis to study the distribution of tuberculosis in Kashgar. We used a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model to analyze the relationship between TB and social factors. A total of 100,330 cases of TB in Kashgar from 2016 to 2021 were analyzed. The number of TB cases in Kashgar was higher in the east, lower in the west, and most elevated in the center. The highest cumulative number of cases was found in Shache county. Global Moran's I ranged from -0.212 to -0.549, and local spatial autocorrelation analysis identified four clusters. According to our analysis, the incidence of tuberculosis was negatively correlated among the regions of Kashgar, and the related causes need to be analyzed in depth in future studies. Per capita gross domestic product (GDP), number of medical institutions per capita, and total population influenced the incidence of tuberculosis in Kashgar. Based on our findings, we suggest some effective measures to reduce the risk of TB infection, such as improving the living standard, developing the regional economy, and distributing health resources rationally.

Self-efficacy and self-management mediate the association of health literacy and quality of life among patients with TB in Tibet, China: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to analyze the relationship between health literacy and quality of life in patients with TB in Tibet and explore the mediating effects of self-efficacy and self-management in the relationship between health literacy and quality of life.

METHODS

We used a convenience sampling method to select 271 cases of patients with TB in Tibet to conduct a survey of their general information, health literacy, self-management, self-efficacy and quality of life, and to construct structural equation models.

RESULTS

The total health literacy score of patients with TB in Tibet was 84.28±18.57, while the lowest score was for information acquisition ability (55.99±25.66). Scores for quality of life were generally lower than the norm (patients with chronic diseases from other cities in China) (p<0.01). Moreover, self-efficacy and self-management mediated the relationship between health literacy and quality of life (p<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

In Tibet, patients with TB have a low level of health literacy and an average level of quality of life. Emphasis should be placed on improving information access literacy, role-physicals and role-emotional to improve overall quality of life. The mediating roles of self-efficacy and self-management between health literacy and quality of life may provide a basis for further interventions.

Temporal trends in mortality of tuberculosis attributable to high fasting plasma glucose in China from 1990 to 2019: a joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis

Background

Nowadays, high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) has been identified as the important risk factor contributing to the increased burden of diseases. But there remains a lack of research on tuberculosis (TB) mortality specifically attributable to HFPG. Thus, this study aims to explore the long-term trends in HFPG-related TB mortality in China from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

Data on HFPG-related TB mortality were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. Analyzing the data using joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort methods adjusting for age, period, and cohort allowed us to assess the trends in TB mortality due to HFPG.

Results

The age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) of TB attributable to HFPG exhibited a downward trend in China from 1990 to 2019, with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of -7.0 (95% CI, -7.5 to -6.6). Similar trends were found for male (AAPC of -6.5 [95% CI, -7.0 to -6.0]) and female (AAPC of -8.2 [95% CI, -8.5 to -7.9]), respectively. Local drifts curve with a U-shaped pattern reflected the AAPC of TB mortality due to HFPG across age groups. The greatest decline was observed in the age group of 60-64 years. The mortality rates related to HFPG first increased and then decreased with increasing age, peaking in the 55-59 age group. Our analysis of the period and cohort effects found that the rate ratios of TB mortality due to HFPG have decreased over the past three decades, more prominently in women. It is noteworthy that while both genders have seen a decline in HFPG-attributable TB mortality and risk, men have a higher risk and slightly less significant decline than women.

Conclusion

The present study shows that HFPG-related ASMRs and risk of TB in China decreased over the last 30 years, with similar trends observed in both men and women. In order to attain the recommended level set by the WHO, the effective strategies for glycemic control and management still needed to be implemented strictly to further decrease the burden of TB.

Extrapulmonary tuberculosis in China: a national survey

OBJECTIVES

Extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) is not a notifiable infectious disease in China but is a heavy burden on public health. However, the epidemic situation of EPTB nationwide is unclear. This study aimed to investigate the magnitude and main subtypes of EPTB in China.

METHODS

We conducted a national cross-sectional study with multistage, stratified cluster random sampling during 2020-2021. We calculated proportions of EPTB in all patients with TB by organs. Logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios by characteristics.

RESULTS

A total of 6843 patients with TB were included. Of them, 24.6% were patients with EPTB, and the proportion of EPTB solo was 21.3%. Higher EPTB burden was observed in children, female patients, clinically diagnosed patients, provincial-level and prefectural-level health facilities, and Central and West China. EPTB occurred most frequently in respiratory (35.5%), musculoskeletal (15.8%), and peripheral lymphatic (15.8%) systems with top three subtypes, including tuberculous pleurisy (35.0%), spinal TB (9.8%) and cervical tuberculous lymphadenopathy (7.9%). With the increase of age, proportion of peripheral lymphatic TB decreased, and proportion rank of genitourinary TB rose.

CONCLUSION

It is essential to strengthen the diagnosis and treatment capacity for EPTB in primary medical facilities. EPTB should be added to the National Tuberculosis Program as a notifiable disease.

Spatiotemporal dynamics and potential ecological drivers of acute respiratory infectious diseases: an example of scarlet fever in Sichuan Province

OBJECT

Scarlet fever is an acute respiratory infectious disease that endangers public health and imposes a huge economic burden. In this paper, we systematically studied its spatial and temporal evolution and explore its potential ecological drivers. The goal of this research is to provide a reference for analysis based on surveillance data of scarlet fever and other acute respiratory infectious illnesses, and offer suggestions for prevention and control.

METHOD

This research is based on a spatiotemporal multivariate model (Endemic-Epidemic model). Firstly, we described the epidemiology status of the scarlet fever epidemic in Sichuan Province from 2016 to 2019. Secondly, we used spatial autocorrelation analysis to understand the spatial pattern. Thirdly, we applied the endemic-epidemic model to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics by quantitatively decomposing cases into endemic, autoregressive, and spatiotemporal components. Finally, we explored potential ecological drivers that could influence the spread of scarlet fever.

RESULTS

From 2016 to 2019, the incidence of scarlet fever in Sichuan Province varied much among cities. In terms of temporal distribution, there were 1-2 epidemic peaks per year, and they were mainly concentrated from April to June and October to December. In terms of transmission, the endemic and temporal spread were predominant. Our findings imply that the school holiday could help to reduce the spread of scarlet fever, and a standard increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was associated with 2.6 folds contributions to the epidemic among cities.

CONCLUSION

Scarlet fever outbreaks are more susceptible to previous cases, as temporal spread accounted for major transmission in many areas in Sichuan Province. The school holidays and GDP can influence the spread of infectious diseases. Given that covariates could not fully explain heterogeneity, adding random effects was essential to improve accuracy. Paying attention to critical populations and hotspots, as well as understanding potential drivers, is recommended for acute respiratory infections such as scarlet fever. For example, our study reveals GDP is positively associated with spatial spread, indicating we should consider GDP as an important factor when analyzing the potential drivers of acute infectious disease.

Provincial heterogeneity in the management of care cascade for hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidaemia in China: Analysis of nationally representative population-based survey

Background

This study aims to examine (1) province-level variations in the levels of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and behavioral risk for CVDs, (2) province-level variations in the management of cascade of care for hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidaemia, and (3) the association of province-level economic development and individual factors with the quality of care for hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidaemia.

Methods

We used nationally representative data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in 2015, which included 12,597 participants aged 45 years. Using a care cascade framework, we examined the quality of care provided to patients with three prevalent NCDs: hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidaemia. The proportion of WHO CVD risk based on the World Health Organization CVD risk prediction charts, Cardiovascular Risk Score (CRS) and Behavior Risk Score (BRS) were calculated. We performed multivariable logistic regression models to determine the individual-level drivers of NCD risk variables and outcomes. To examine socio-demographic relationships with CVD risk, linear regression models were applied.

Results

In total, the average CRS was 4.98 (95% CI: 4.92, 5.05), while the average BRS was 3.10 (95% confidence interval: 3.04, 3.15). The weighted mean CRS (BRS) in Fujian province ranged from 4.36 to 5.72 (P < 0.05). Most of the provinces had a greater rate of hypertension than diabetes and dyslipidaemia awareness and treatment. Northern provinces had a higher rate of awareness and treatment of all three diseases. Similar patterns of regional disparity were seen in diabetes and dyslipidaemia care cascades. There was no evidence of a better care cascade for CVDs in patients who reside in more economically advanced provinces.

Conclusion

Our research found significant provincial heterogeneity in the CVD risk scores and the management of the cascade of care for hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidaemia for persons aged 45 years or more. To improve the management of cascade of care and to eliminate regional and disparities in CVD care and risk factors in China, local and population-based focused interventions are necessary.

Time trend prediction and spatial-temporal analysis of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Guizhou Province, China, during 2014-2020

Background

Guizhou is located in the southwest of China with high multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) epidemic. To fight this disease, Guizhou provincial authorities have made efforts to establish MDR-TB service system and perform the strategies for active case finding since 2014. The expanded case finding starting from 2019 and COVID-19 pandemic may affect the cases distribution. Thus, this study aims to analyze MDR-TB epidemic status from 2014 to 2020 for the first time in Guizhou in order to guide control strategies.

Methods

Data of notified MDR-TB cases were extracted from the National TB Surveillance System correspond to population information for each county of Guizhou from 2014 to 2020. The percentage change was calculated to quantify the change of cases from 2014 to 2020. Time trend and seasonality of case series were analyzed by a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Spatial–temporal distribution at county-level was explored by spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial–temporal scan statistic.

Results

Guizhou has 9 prefectures and 88 counties. In this study, 1,666 notified MDR-TB cases were included from 2014–2020. The number of cases increased yearly. Between 2014 and 2019, the percentage increase ranged from 6.7 to 21.0%. From 2019 to 2020, the percentage increase was 62.1%. The seasonal trend illustrated that most cases were observed during the autumn with the trough in February. Only in 2020, a peak admission was observed in June. This may be caused by COVID-19 pandemic restrictions being lifted until May 2020. The spatial–temporal heterogeneity revealed that over the years, most MDR-TB cases stably aggregated over four prefectures in the northwest, covering Bijie, Guiyang, Liupanshui and Zunyi. Three prefectures (Anshun, Tongren and Qiandongnan) only exhibited case clusters in 2020.

Conclusion

This study identified the upward trend with seasonality and spatial−temporal clusters of MDR-TB cases in Guizhou from 2014 to 2020. The fast rising of cases and different distribution from the past in 2020 were affected by the expanded case finding from 2019 and COVID-19. The results suggest that control efforts should target at high-risk periods and areas by prioritizing resources allocation to increase cases detection capacity and better access to treatment.

Spatial analysis and influencing factors of pulmonary tuberculosis among students in Nanning, during 2012-2018

BACKGROUND

Economically underdeveloped areas in western China are hotspots of tuberculosis, especially among students. However, the related spatial and temporal patterns and influencing factors are still unclear and there are few studies to analyze the causes of pulmonary tuberculosis in students from the perspective of space.

METHODS

We collected data regarding the reported incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) among students at township level in Nanning, from 2012 to 2018. The reported incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis among students in Nanning was analyzed using spatial autocorrelation and spatial scan statistical analysis to depict hotspots of PTB incidence and spatial and temporal clustering. Spatial panel data of the reported incidence rates and influencing factors at district and county levels in Nanning were collected from 2015 to 2018. Then, we analyzed the spatial effects of incidence and influencing factors using the spatial Durbin model to explore the mechanism of each influencing factor in areas with high disease prevalence under spatial effects.

RESULTS

From 2012 to 2018, 1609 cases of PTB were reported among students in Nanning, with an average annual reported incidence rate of 14.84/100,000. Through the Joinpoint regression model, We observed a steady trend in the percentage of cases reported each year (P>0.05). There was spatial autocorrelation between the annual reported incidence and the seven-years average reported incidence from 2012 to 2018. The high-incidence area was distributed in the junction of six urban areas and spread to the periphery, with the junction at the center. The population of college students, per capita financial expenditure on health, per capita gross domestic product, and the number of health technicians per 1,000 population were all influencing factors in the reported incidence of PTB among students.

CONCLUSION

We identified spatial clustering of the reported incidence of PTB among students in Nanning, mainly located in the urban center and its surrounding areas. The clustering gradually decreased from the urban center to the surrounding areas. Spatial effects influenced the reported incidence of PTB. The population density of college students, per capita health financial expenditure, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and the number of health technicians per 1,000 were all influencing factors in the reported incidence of PTB among students.

The unbalanced risk of pulmonary tuberculosis in China at subnational scale: A spatio-temporal analysis (Preprint)

Background

China has one of the highest tuberculosis (TB) burdens in the world. However, the unbalanced spatial and temporal trends of TB risk at a fine level remain unclear.

Objective

We aimed to investigate the unbalanced risks of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) at different levels and how they evolved from both temporal and spatial aspects using PTB notification data from 2851 counties over a decade in China.

Methods

County-level notified PTB case data were collected from 2009 to 2018 in mainland China. A Bayesian hierarchical model was constructed to analyze the unbalanced spatiotemporal patterns of PTB notification rates during this period at subnational scales. The Gini coefficient was calculated to assess the inequality of the relative risk (RR) of PTB across counties.

Results

From 2009 to 2018, the number of notified PTB cases in mainland China decreased from 946,086 to 747,700. The average number of PTB cases in counties was 301 (SD 26) and the overall average notification rate was 60 (SD 6) per 100,000 people. There were obvious regional differences in the RRs for PTB (Gini coefficient 0.32, 95% CI 0.31-0.33). Xinjiang had the highest PTB notification rate, with a multiyear average of 155/100,000 (RR 2.3, 95% CI 1.6-2.8; P<.001), followed by Guizhou (117/100,000; RR 1.8, 95% CI 1.3-1.9; P<.001) and Tibet (108/100,000; RR 1.7, 95% CI 1.3-2.1; P<.001). The RR for PTB showed a steady downward trend. Gansu (local trend [LT] 0.95, 95% CI 0.93-0.96; P<.001) and Shanxi (LT 0.94, 95% CI 0.92-0.96; P<.001) experienced the fastest declines. However, the RRs for PTB in the western region (such as counties in Xinjiang, Guizhou, and Tibet) were significantly higher than those in the eastern and central regions (P<.001), and the decline rate of the RR for PTB was lower than the overall level (P<.001).

Conclusions

PTB risk showed significant regional inequality among counties in China, and western China presented a high plateau of disease burden. Improvements in economic and medical service levels are required to boost PTB case detection and eventually reduce PTB risk in the whole country.

Clinical characteristics and chest computed tomography findings related to the infectivity of pulmonary tuberculosis

AIM

This study mainly evaluates the clinical characteristics and chest chest computed tomography (CT) findings of AFB-positive and AFB-negative pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients to explore the relationship between AFB-positive and clinico-radiological findings.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of 224 hospitalized tuberculosis patients from 2018 to 2020 was undertaken. According to the AFB smear results, they were divided into AFB-positive pulmonary tuberculosis (positive by Ziehl-Neelsen staining) and AFB-negative pulmonary tuberculosis and patients' CT results and laboratory test results were analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 224 PTB patients were enrolled. AFB-positive (n = 94, 42%) and AFB-negative (n = 130, 58%). AFB-positive patients had more consolidation (77.7% vs. 53.8%, p < 0.01), cavity (55.3% vs. 34.6%, p < 0.01), calcification (38.3% vs. 20%, p < 0.01), bronchiectasis (7.5% vs. 1.5%, p < 0.05), bronchiarctia (6.4% vs. 0.8%, p < 0.05), and right upper lobe involvement (57.5% vs. 33.1%, p < 0.01), left upper lobe involvement (46.8% vs. 33.1%, p < 0.05) and lymphadenopathy (58.5% vs. 37.7%, p < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

The study found that when pulmonary tuberculosis patients have consolidation, cavity, upper lobe involvement and lymphadenopathy on chest CT images, they may have a higher risk of AFB-positive tuberculosis.

Comparison of pediatric empyema secondary to tuberculosis or non-tuberculosis community-acquired pneumonia in those who underwent surgery in high TB burden areas

INTRODUCTION

Tuberculous empyema (TE) in children is common in high-TB burden and medical resource-limited areas. However, studies that evaluate the characteristics of TE in children are sparse. This study aimed to analyze the clinical features of pediatric TE receiving surgical intervention.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study of children with empyema secondary to community-acquired pneumonia who underwent surgery in our institution. The clinical characteristics were compared between TE and empyema secondary non-tuberculosis infection (non-tuberculosis empyema, NTE).

RESULTS

One hundred patients were included (27 with TE and 73 with NTE). Stage 3 empyema occupied 81.5% and 45.2% of TE and NTE in this study. The TE children had older age, longer duration of illness, and milder symptoms. Pleural fluid culture was positive for Mycobacterium tuberculosis in 7.4% of patients with TE. Lymph node enlargement, lymph node calcification, and pleural nodules presented in TE with high specificity (93.2%, 98.6%, and 98.5%) but low sensitivity (33.3%, 14.8%, and 29.6%) on CT scan. Thoracoscopy surgery was performed in 14 (51.9%) in TE and 39 (53.4%) in NTE. Postoperative chest-tube indwelling time was longer (7.85 ± 5.00 vs. 4.89 ± 1.81 days, p < .001), and more patients had incomplete lung expansion after 3 months in TE.

CONCLUSION

Tuberculosis infection should be screened in management of children with empyema in high-TB burden areas. Pediatric TE usually presented at older age and with milder respiratory symptoms. Pleural biopsy during surgery is often necessary to confirm the cause of infection. Thoracotomy is still required in some pediatric TE or NTE with delayed treatment in medical resource-limited area.

Forecasting the Tuberculosis Incidence Using a Novel Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition-Based Data-Driven Hybrid Model in Tibet, China

Objective

The purpose of this study is to develop a novel data-driven hybrid model by fusing ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), with nonlinear autoregressive artificial neural network (NARNN), called EEMD-ARIMA-NARNN model, to assess and forecast the epidemic patterns of TB in Tibet.

Methods

The TB incidence from January 2006 to December 2017 was obtained, and then the time series was partitioned into training subsamples (from January 2006 to December 2016) and testing subsamples (from January to December 2017). Among them, the training set was used to develop the EEMD-SARIMA-NARNN combined model, whereas the testing set was used to validate the forecasting performance of the model. Whilst the forecasting accuracy level of this novel method was compared with the basic SARIMA model, basic NARNN model, error-trend-seasonal (ETS) model, and traditional SARIMA-NARNN mixture model.

Results

By comparing the accuracy level of the forecasting measurements including root-mean-square error, mean absolute deviation, mean error rate, mean absolute percentage error, and root-mean-square percentage error, it was shown that the EEMD-SARIMA-NARNN combined method produced lower error rates than the others. The descriptive statistics suggested that TB was a seasonal disease, peaking in late winter and early spring and a trough in autumn and early winter, and the TB epidemic indicated a drastic increase by a factor of 1.7 from 2006 to 2017 in Tibet, with average annual percentage change of 5.8 (95% confidence intervals: 3.5–8.1).

Conclusion

This novel data-driven hybrid method can better consider both linear and nonlinear components in the TB incidence than the others used in this study, which is of great help to estimate and forecast the future epidemic trends of TB in Tibet. Besides, under present trends, strict precautionary measures are required to reduce the spread of TB in Tibet.

Temporal Trends in Notification and Mortality of Tuberculosis in China, 2004-2019: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health problem in China and worldwide. In this article, we used a joinpoint regression model to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) of TB notification and mortality in China from 2004 to 2019. We also used an age–period–cohort (APC) model based on the intrinsic estimator (IE) method to simultaneously distinguish the age, period and cohort effects on TB notification and mortality in China. A statistically downward trend was observed in TB notification and mortality over the period, with AAPCs of −4.2% * (−4.9%, −3.4%) and −5.8% (−7.5%, −4.0%), respectively. A bimodal pattern of the age effect was observed, peaking in the young adult (aged 15–34) and elderly (aged 50–84) groups. More specifically, the TB notification risk populations were people aged 20–24 years and 70–74 years; the TB mortality risk population was adults over the age of 60. The period effect suggested that TB notification and mortality risks were nearly stable over the past 15 years. The cohort effect on both TB notification and mortality presented a continuously decreasing trend, and it was no longer a risk factor after 1978. All in all, the age effect should be paid more attention.

IgG4-Related Disease With Tuberculosis: A Case Report and Retrospective Review of Patients in a Single Center

Background

IgG4-related disease (IgG4-RD) is a recently recognized systemic fibro-inflammatory disease of unknown cause involving many organs including pancreas, salivary glands, and lymph nodes. Chronic tuberculosis (TB) infection has been reported in IgG4-RD, but the prevalence of TB infection has not been evaluated in IgG4-RD.

Methods

Characterization of a patient with IgG4-RD by physical examination, laboratory tests, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and histological examination. TB infection was evaluated by medical history, radiological examinations, sputum examinations, tubercular skin test (TST) and interferon gamma (IFN-γ) release assay test (IGRA). Medical records of IgG4-RD patients were reviewed in our institute from February 2015 to September 2020 to explore the prevalence of TB infection in IgG4-RD.

Results

We described a 40-year-old Chinese man presented with headache and diplopia. Physical examination revealed bitemporal hemianopsia and limited abduction of both eyes. MRI revealed uniformly enhancing mass overlying clivus with dural tail sign. Laboratory data revealed elevation of IgG4 (1.9g/L), and TB-IGRA demonstrated significantly elevated IFN-γ (414.21 pg/ml). The clivus lesion was subtotally removed and IgG4 was strongly positive on immunohistochemical staining. The diagnosis of IgG4-RD was established, and the patient received treatment of corticosteroids, methotrexate, and cyclophosphamide with isoniazid prophylaxis. Consequently, the mass shrank remarkably within 3 months. A similar concurrence of TB disease or latent TB infection (LTBI) and IgG4-RD was present in 17/47 (36.2%) patients in our institute.

Conclusion

High frequency of TB/LTBI presented in patients with IgG4-RD. Patients with IgG4-RD and LTBI should be closely monitored for resurgence of TB. Whether TB represents a risk for IgG4-RD should be further investigated in prospective cohort.