Analysis on the trend of AIDS incidence in Zhejiang, China based on the age-period-cohort model (2004-2018)

The trend of AIDS in China: A prediction and comparative analysis with G20 countries based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

In China, AIDS has become the most severe notifiable infectious disease. The study aimed to analyse and predict the trend of AIDS in China and compared with Group of Twenty (G20) countries.

Methods

We utilised incidence, mortality or disability-adjusted life years (DALY), age-standardised rates (ASR), average annual percentage changes (AAPC) to estimate the trend via GBD 2019. The Joinpoint regression analysis was applied to identify the most significant years of change. We explored the relationship between AAPC and social development index (SDI) or health care access and quality (HAQ), and predicted trends for the next 20 years.

Results

The DALY in G20 increase of 340.42%, and 794.50% in China. The age-standardised DALY rate (ASDR) in G20 was 309.49 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) = 284.69, 350.58) in 2019, with an AAPC of 4.30. Among G20, the United States had the highest DALY in 1990, but it experienced a significant decline. In China, the ASDR was 98.15 (95% UI = 78.78, 119.58) with the 5th AAPC ranking. In term of gender, the incidence, mortality, DALY, and ASR of them in China and G20 were all higher in males. Furthermore, the gender gap in China had been widening. The most significant periods of ASDR increase in China were 1990-1995 and 2013-2016, and 1990-1994 in G20. The prediction for DALY indicated that high SDI countries were expected to exhibit a stable or declining trend, while low SDI countries showed an upward trend. China demonstrated a 57.66% increase in 2040 compared to 2019.

Conclusions

AIDS continues to be a significant burden. In China, the ASIR exhibited a decline trend in certain age groups, while the ASMR and ASDR continued to increase, with a widening gender disparity. In addition, according to our predict results, some countries could not achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development set by the UNAIDS. Therefore, it is necessary to establish more effective and targeted measures, as well as actively explore new treatment approaches.

Spatiotemporal Pattern and Its Determinants for Newly Reported HIV/AIDS Among Older Adults in Eastern China From 2004 to 2021: Retrospective Analysis Study

BACKGROUND

In recent years, the number and proportion of newly reported HIV/AIDS cases among older adults have increased dramatically. However, research on the pattern of temporal and spatial changes in newly reported HIV/AIDS among older adults remains limited.

OBJECTIVE

This study analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution of HIV/AIDS cases and its influencing factors among older adults in Eastern China from 2004 to 2021, with the goal of improving HIV/AIDS prevention and intervention.

METHODS

We extracted data on newly reported HIV/AIDS cases between 2004 and 2021 from a case-reporting system and used a Joinpoint regression model and an age-period-cohort model to analyze the temporal trends in HIV/AIDS prevalence. Spatial autocorrelation and geographically weighted regression models were used for spatial aggregation and influence factor analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 12,376 participants with HIV/AIDS were included in the study. The newly reported HIV infections among older adults increased from 0.13 cases per 100,000 people in 2004 to 7.00 cases per 100,000 people in 2021. The average annual percent change in newly reported HIV infections was 28.0% (95% CI -21.6% to 34.8%). The results of the age-period-cohort model showed that age, period, and cohort factors affected the newly reported HIV infections among older adults. The newly reported HIV/AIDS cases among men who have sex with men (MSM) had spatial clustering, and the hotspots were mainly concentrated in Hangzhou. The disposable income of urban residents, illiteracy rate among people aged 15 years or older, and number of hospital beds per 1000 residents showed a positive association with the newly reported HIV infections among older MSM in the Zhejiang province.

CONCLUSIONS

HIV/AIDS among older adults showed an increasing trend and was influenced by age, period, and cohort effects. Older MSM with HIV/AIDS showed regional clustering and was associated with factors such as the disposable income of urban residents, the illiteracy rate among people aged 15 years or older, and the number of hospital beds per 1000 people. Targeted prevention and control measures are needed to reduce HIV infection among those at higher risk.

Epidemiological Analysis of HIV/AIDS in Kazakhstan During 2018-2020

BACKGROUND

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a severe threat to public health everywhere, including the Central Asian region and Kazakhstan. The aim of the study was to conduct an epidemiological analysis of newly diagnosed cases of HIV infection during 2018-2020.

STUDY DESIGN

A case series study.

METHODS

A descriptive analysis of national data on registered cases of HIV in Kazakhstan was conducted, and demographic information was collected and studied accordingly. The analysis of the influence of age, period, and cohort was performed using the age-period-cohort method.

RESULTS

Based on the results, men prevailed (68.5%) among all cases of HIV infection (n=1235). Sexual transmission during heterosexual contact was higher in females (88.9%, P=0.005), and the number of new cases as a result of homosexual contact was higher in men (23.0%, P=0.087). In addition, the parenteral route of HIV transmission cases prevailed among men (27.5%, P=0.001), and intravenous drug administration was more common among males (27.4%, P=0.01). Moreover, 68.5% of men and 33.2% of women had a low therapy adherence. In men, the risk of HIV prevalence increased after 32.5 years (deviation [Dv]: 0.134, 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.096 to 0.364). At the age of 37.5 years, there was an increase (Dv: 0.852, 95% CI=0.626 to 1.079) in HIV prevalence. However, no peaks were observed in women.

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicated a rise in the prevalence of HIV infection in Kazakhstan. Men aged 37 and older were identified as the risk category. Eventually, inadequate adherence to treatment was observed in HIV/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome patients.

Spatial distribution and temporal trends of AIDS in Brazil and regions between 2005 and 2020

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the spatial distribution and the temporal trend of the AIDS incidence rate in Brazil from 2005 to 2020.

METHODS

This is an ecological, temporal, and spatial study on AIDS cases in Brazil. Data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System were stratified by year of diagnosis, region of the country/municipalities of residence, and age group (over 13 years). Incidence rates were calculated for temporal estimation using the Joinpoint model, as well as Spatial Empirical Bayes (SEB) for spatial distribution, using the Kernel density estimator.

RESULTS

The incidence rate in Brazil, in 2020, was 17.69 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants. The general trend (2005-2020) was decrease in Brazil (Annual Percent Change - APC=-2.0%), in the Southeast (APC=-4.4%) and South (APC=-3.0%) regions. The North (APC=2.3%) showed an increase trend, whereas the Southeast and Midwest regions were stationary (p>0.05). Brazil, Southeast, South, and Midwest regions showed a decrease trend in most age groups. The Northeast and North regions showed an increase in the age groups of 13-29 years and 13-24 years, respectively. The Kernel estimator showed clusters with SEB above 30/10 thousand inhabitants in the states of Paraíba, Sergipe, Alagoas, Pernambuco, São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Pará, Rio Grande do Sul, and Santa Catarina.

CONCLUSION

Brazil, the Southeast, and South regions showed a decrease in the incidence rate, whereas the North region increased and the Northeast and Midwest regions were stationary. The Southeast, South, and Northeast regions presented the largest clusters of SEB.

Distribuição espacial e tendência temporal da AIDS no Brasil e regiões entre 2005 e 2020

RESUMO: Objetivo: Analisar a distribuição espacial e a tendência temporal da taxa de incidência de AIDS no Brasil no período de 2005 a 2020. Métodos: Estudo ecológico, temporal e espacial sobre os casos de AIDS no Brasil. Dados provenientes do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação do Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde foram estratificados por ano do diagnóstico, região do país/municípios de residência e faixa etária (acima de 13 anos). Foram calculadas as taxas de incidência (TI) para a estimativa temporal por meio do modelo de joinpoint, bem como as taxas bayesianas empíricas espaciais (TBEE) para a distribuição espacial pelo estimador de densidade de Kernel. Resultados: A TI no Brasil no ano de 2020 foi de 17,69 casos para cada 100 mil habitantes. A tendência geral (2005–2020) foi de diminuição no Brasil (variação percentual anual — VPA=-2,0%), Sudeste (VPA=-4,4%) e Sul (VPA=-3,0%). O Norte (VPA=2,3%) demonstrou aumento, enquanto o Sudeste e Centro-oeste foram estacionários (p>0,05). O Brasil, Sudeste, Sul e Centro-oeste apresentaram tendência de diminuição na maioria das faixas etárias. O Nordeste e Norte apresentaram aumento nas faixas etárias de 13 a 29 anos e 13 a 24 anos, respectivamente. O estimador de Kernel demonstrou conglomerados com TBEE acima de 30/10 mil habitantes nos estados de Paraíba, Sergipe, Alagoas, Pernambuco, São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Pará, Rio Grande do Sul e Santa Catarina. Conclusão: O Brasil e as Regiões Sudeste e Sul apresentaram diminuição da TI, enquanto o Norte aumentou e o Nordeste e Centro-oeste foram estacionários. As Regiões Sudeste, Sul e Nordeste apresentaram os maiores conglomerados das TBEE.

Epidemiology and Clinical Outcomes of HIV Infection in South-Central China: A Retrospective Study From 2003 to 2018

Objective

HIV epidemiology in South-Central China is rarely reported. This study aims to characterize epidemiological and clinical features of HIV-infected patients in Hunan Province, located in South-Central China, for better management of HIV infections.

Methods

This retrospective study retrieved multi-center records of laboratory-confirmed HIV-infected patients in Hunan province. Information on HIV-associated mortality and antiretroviral therapies was also collected.

Results

Among 34,297 patients diagnosed with HIV infections from 2003 to 2018, 73.9% were males, 41.3% were older adults (≥50 years), and 71.2% were infected by heterosexual transmission. Despite a slow growth of new HIV infections in the overall population, annual percentages of HIV infections increased in older males (85.3% through heterosexual transmission) and young patients <30 years (39.9% through homosexual transmission). At baseline, serum levels of CD4+ T-cell counts were lower in older adults (191.0 cells/μl) than in young patients (294.6 cells/μl, p-value < 0.0001). A large proportion (47.2%, N = 16,165) of HIV-infected patients had advanced HIV disease (CD4+ T-cell counts < 200 cells/μl) from 2003 to 2018. All-cause mortality (57.0% due to AIDS-related illnesses) was reported among 4411 HIV-infected patients, including 2619 older adults. The 10-year survival rate was significantly lower in elderly males than in other patients (59.0 vs. 78.4%, p-value < 0.05).

Conclusions

Elderly males are prone to HIV infections with a high risk of HIV-associated fatality. Our findings support early prevention and critical care for elderly populations to control HIV infections.

Long-Term Changes of HIV/AIDS Incidence Rate in China and the U.S. Population From 1994 to 2019: A Join-Point and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Although HIV caused one of the worst epidemics since the late twentieth century, China and the U.S. has made substantial progress to control the spread of HIV/AIDS. However, the trends of HIV/AIDS incidence remain unclear in both countries. Therefore, this study aimed to highlight the long-term trends of HIV/AIDS incidence by gender in China and the U.S. population. The data were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database since it would be helpful to assess the impact/role of designed policies in the control of HIV/AIDS incidence in both countries. The age-period-cohort (APC) model and join-point regression analysis were employed to estimate the age-period-cohort effect and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) on HIV incidence. Between 1994 and 2019, we observed an oscillating trend of the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) in China and an increasing ASIR trend in the U.S. Despite the period effect in China declined for both genders after peaked in 2004, the age effect in China grew among the young (from 15–19 to 25–29) and the old age groups (from 65–69 to 75–79). Similarly, the cohort effect increased among those born in the early (from 1924–1928 to 1934–1938) and the latest birth groups (from 1979–1983 to 2004–2009). In the case of the U.S., the age effect declined after it peaked in the 25–29 age group. People born in recent birth groups had a higher cohort effect than those born in early groups. In both countries, women were less infected by HIV than men. Therefore, besides effective strategies and awareness essential to protect the young age groups from HIV risk factors, the Chinese government should pay attention to the elderly who lacked family support and were exposed to HIV risk factors.

An analysis on the trend of AIDS/HIV incidence in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China from 2005-2015 based on Age-Period-Cohort model

This paper elucidates that the AIDS/HIV incidence rate differences exist among different population and regions, especially among the old and college students. Due to the effect of age, the AIDS incidence peak in males aged 20-35 years and 50 years old both in Chongqing and Shenzhen, and the incidence rate and increasing spread in males was higher than that of females under period effect. In the local population in Chongqing and Shenzhen, the incidence rate of males in over 40, below and in the whole age groups are predicted to increase sharply in the future six years, while in females, the incidence rates among over 40-year-old and the whole age groups were predicted to increase as well. The incidence rate among homosexually transmitted patients reaches the peak in the 20-35, the incidence rate of patients transmitted through heterosexual reaches the peak around 50-year-old. Under the effect of period, AIDS/HIV incidence rate of patients transmitted through sexual routes showed an upward trend both in Chongqing and Shenzhen. The incidence rate of patients aged between 41 and 70 years old presents with an upward trend in the future six years. The results show great differences exist in the AIDS/HIV incidence between males and females, therefore it is necessary to take specific measures respectively.