HIV-1 molecular transmission clusters in nine European countries and Canada: association with demographic and clinical factors

HIV molecular transmission networks among students in Guangxi: unraveling the dynamics of student-driven HIV epidemic

In Guangxi, the number of newly diagnosed HIV-1 infections among students is continuously increasing, highlighting the need for a detailed understanding of local transmission dynamics, particularly focusing on key drivers of transmission. We recruited individuals newly diagnosed with HIV-1 in Nanning, Guangxi, and amplified and sequenced the HIV-1 pol gene to construct a molecular network. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis was utilized to identify migration events, and multivariable logistic regression was employed to analyze factors influencing clustering and high linkage. The predominant subtype among students was CRF07_BC (58.5%), followed by CRF01_AE (17.4%) and CRF55_01B (13.5%). Transmission network analysis identified a significant clustering rate of 64.3% among students, primarily within large clusters. The strongest transmission relationships were observed between students and MSM aged 25-39, as well as nonstudent youths. These migration events primarily occurred from MSM aged 25-39 to students and nonstudent youths for CRF01_AE, CRF07_BC, and CRF55_01B. Qingxiu was the main emigration region for for CRF01_AE, CRF07_BC, while Xixiangtang for CRF55_01B. Link with nonstudent youths (AOR = 5.11) and MSM aged 25-39 (AOR = 8.82) were significant factors contributing to the high linkage among students. Long-term infection was a key factor in super spreaders. These findings emphasize the critical role of MSM aged 25-39 in HIV-1 transmission among local youths, particularly regarding long-term infected individuals. The study advocates for targeted HIV-1 screening and intervention strategies for youths to strengthen early detection and treatment, thereby mitigating further transmission within this high-risk group.

Analysis of HIV transmission characteristics and intervention effects in Guangxi based on molecular networks

OBJECTIVE

This study evaluates changes in HIV transmission and the effectiveness of interventions after two rounds of the Guangxi AIDS Conquering Project (GACP) in Guangxi, China.

METHODS

Samples and epidemiological data from newly diagnosed people with HIV (PWH) between 2014 and 2020 were analyzed. Molecular networks were constructed using nested PCR amplification and sequencing of the pol region, and multivariable logistic regression identified factors associated with clustering and high-degree nodes.

RESULTS

A total of 4227 valid sequences (73.12% inclusion rate) were analyzed. Demographic changes included an increasing proportion of individuals aged at least 50 years (49.66%), with lower education (50.51%), peasants (76.82%), and heterosexual transmission (90.29%). The overall clustering rate was 86.89%, with higher clustering among individuals aged at least 50 years (92.57%), those with primary school or below (89.09%), peasants (88.11%), and CRF08_BC infections (91.48%). Annual declines in cluster growth rate and clustering rates were observed, particularly among individuals aged less than 30 years, college graduates, MSM, and people who inject drugs (PWID). Key transmission hotspots were identified in Lingshan, particularly among older, less-educated individuals, and peasants. Factors associated with clustering included being male (aOR: 1.27), aged at least 50 years (aOR: 3.84), and infected with CRF08_BC (aOR: 2.12). From 2017 to 2020, the risk of clustering and high-degree nodes was lower compared to 2014-2016, suggesting the effectiveness of interventions.

CONCLUSION

Interventions in Guangxi effectively reduced HIV transmission among younger, high-degree populations. However, older, less-educated individuals remain at high risk, necessitating targeted strategies to address their specific needs and achieve better HIV control.

Dynamics of clustering rates in the Rhode Island HIV-1 epidemic

BACKGROUND

Characterizing HIV clustering rates and their trends over time can improve understanding a local epidemic and enhance its control.

METHODS

Leveraging an academic-public health partnership in Rhode Island, we explored longitudinal dynamics of statewide clustering rates among key populations from 1991 to 2023. Partial HIV-1 pol sequences were grouped by year of HIV-1 diagnosis. Molecular clusters were identified in cumulative annual phylogenies. Overall clustering rates, and clustering rates of newly diagnosed and prevalent infections, and of specific sociodemographic characteristics of key populations over time were determined. Mann-Kendall statistics were used to estimate clustering rate trends and relationships among groups.

RESULTS

By the end of 2023, 2630 individuals with sequences represented the statewide epidemic in Rhode Island. Overall clustering rates increased from 7% in 1991 to 46% in 2023, correlating with cumulative sequence increase. Clustering rates of newly diagnosed and prevalent infections significantly increased over time, higher in newly diagnosed individuals since the early 2000s. Increases were also observed among groups defined by gender, age, transmission risks, race, mental illness, HIV-1 subtypes, and country of birth, with some crossovers and divergence patterns over time.

CONCLUSION

Exploring dynamics of HIV clustering rates over three decades in a statewide HIV-1 epidemic expanded its characterization and provided insight into its evolving changes. These dynamics may indicate a gradual shift towards a more concentrated and localized HIV-1 epidemic, highlighting important opportunities for targeted interventions to effectively prevent new HIV transmissions.

Molecular network analysis for detecting HIV transmission clusters: insights and implications

Objective

In order to improve knowledge of HIV transmission dynamics and guide preventive and control strategies, this work uses molecular cluster analysis to objectively detect clusters of HIV genetic sequence similarity.

Methods

89 HIV-positive couples provided blood samples, and plasma was separated for pol region gene sequence amplification. Furthermore, analyzed HIV-1 pol fragment sequences from Nanjing patients between 2015 and 2019. HYPHY and Cytoscape were used to generate and illustrate molecular networks.

Results

In this investigation of 89 double-positive pairs, it was discovered that the pairwise gene distance approach properly detected 82.02% of positive couples at an ideal gene distance of 0.014 substitution/loci. With an accuracy of 86.25%, the optimal parameter for the phylogenetic tree and gene distance approach was 90 + 0.045 substitution/loci. A molecular network was built for the Nanjing samples (2015-2019) using the optimum threshold of the previous technique. This network had 487 sequences with one misconnected cluster. There were 565 sequences in the network created by the latter approach that were not incorrectly connected.

Conclusion

For HIV research, molecular cluster analysis provides novel insights. It helps with preventive and control methods by objectively identifying clusters with comparable genetic sequences, which enhances our knowledge of HIV transmission. Further developments will increase its importance for HIV/AIDS research and worldwide prevention.

HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance in newly diagnosed individuals in Italy over the period 2015-21

BACKGROUND

Transmitted drug resistance (TDR) is still a critical aspect for the management of individuals living with HIV-1. Thus, its evaluation is crucial to optimize HIV care.

METHODS

Overall, 2386 HIV-1 protease/reverse transcriptase and 1831 integrase sequences from drug-naïve individuals diagnosed in north and central Italy between 2015 and 2021 were analysed. TDR was evaluated over time. Phylogeny was generated by maximum likelihood. Factors associated with TDR were evaluated by logistic regression.

RESULTS

Individuals were mainly male (79.1%) and Italian (56.2%), with a median (IQR) age of 38 (30-48). Non-B infected individuals accounted for 44.6% (N = 1065) of the overall population and increased over time (2015-2021, from 42.1% to 51.0%, P = 0.002). TDR prevalence to any class was 8.0% (B subtype 9.5% versus non-B subtypes 6.1%, P = 0.002) and remained almost constant over time. Overall, 300 transmission clusters (TCs) involving 1155 (48.4%) individuals were identified, with a similar proportion in B and non-infected individuals (49.7% versus 46.8%, P = 0.148). A similar prevalence of TDR among individuals in TCs and those out of TCs was found (8.2% versus 7.8%, P = 0.707).By multivariable analysis, subtypes A, F, and CFR02_AG were negatively associated with TDR. No other factors, including being part of TCs, were significantly associated with TDR.

CONCLUSIONS

Between 2015 and 2021, TDR prevalence in Italy was 8% and remained almost stable over time. Resistant strains were found circulating regardless of being in TCs, but less likely in non-B subtypes. These results highlight the importance of a continuous surveillance of newly diagnosed individuals for evidence of TDR to inform clinical practice.

Exploring Dynamic Changes in HIV-1 Molecular Transmission Networks and Key Influencing Factors: Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

The HIV-1 molecular network is an innovative tool, using gene sequences to understand transmission attributes and complementing social and sexual network studies. While previous research focused on static network characteristics, recent studies' emphasis on dynamic features enhances our understanding of real-time changes, offering insights for targeted interventions and efficient allocation of public health resources.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to identify the dynamic changes occurring in HIV-1 molecular transmission networks and analyze the primary influencing factors driving the dynamics of HIV-1 molecular networks.

METHODS

We analyzed and compared the dynamic changes in the molecular network over a specific time period between the baseline and observed end point. The primary factors influencing the dynamic changes in the HIV-1 molecular network were identified through univariate analysis and multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 955 HIV-1 polymerase fragments were successfully amplified from 1013 specimens; CRF01_AE and CRF07_BC were the predominant subtypes, accounting for 40.8% (n=390) and 33.6% (n=321) of the specimens, respectively. Through the analysis and comparison of the basic and terminal molecular networks, it was discovered that 144 sequences constituted static molecular networks, and 487 sequences contributed to the formation of dynamic molecular networks. The findings of the multivariate analysis indicated that the factors occupation as a student, floating population, Han ethnicity, engagement in occasional or multiple sexual partnerships, participation in anal sex, and being single were independent risk factors for the dynamic changes observed in the HIV-1 molecular network, and the odds ratio (OR; 95% CIs) values were 2.63 (1.54-4.47), 1.83 (1.17-2.84), 2.91 (1.09-7.79), 1.75 (1.06-2.90), 4.12 (2.48-6.87), 5.58 (2.43-12.80), and 2.10 (1.25-3.54), respectively. Heterosexuality and homosexuality seem to exhibit protective effects when compared to bisexuality, with OR values of 0.12 (95% CI 0.05-0.32) and 0.26 (95% CI 0.11-0.64), respectively. Additionally, the National Eight-Item score and sex education experience were also identified as protective factors against dynamic changes in the HIV-1 molecular network, with OR values of 0.12 (95% CI 0.05-0.32) and 0.26 (95% CI 0.11-0.64), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The HIV-1 molecular network analysis showed 144 sequences in static networks and 487 in dynamic networks. Multivariate analysis revealed that occupation as a student, floating population, Han ethnicity, and risky sexual behavior were independent risk factors for dynamic changes, while heterosexuality and homosexuality were protective compared to bisexuality. A higher National Eight-Item score and sex education experience were also protective factors. The identification of HIV dynamic molecular networks has provided valuable insights into the characteristics of individuals undergoing dynamic alterations. These findings contribute to a better understanding of HIV-1 transmission dynamics and could inform targeted prevention strategies.

The Role of Late Presenters in HIV-1 Transmission Clusters in Europe

BACKGROUND

Investigating the role of late presenters (LPs) in HIV-1 transmission is important, as they can contribute to the onward spread of HIV-1 virus before diagnosis, when they are not aware of their HIV status.

OBJECTIVE

To characterize individuals living with HIV-1 followed up in Europe infected with subtypes A, B, and G and to compare transmission clusters (TC) in LP vs. non-late presenter (NLP) populations.

METHODS

Information from a convenience sample of 2679 individuals living with HIV-1 was collected from the EuResist Integrated Database between 2008 and 2019. Maximum likelihood (ML) phylogenies were constructed using FastTree. Transmission clusters were identified using Cluster Picker. Statistical analyses were performed using R.

RESULTS

2437 (91.0%) sequences were from subtype B, 168 (6.3%) from subtype A, and 74 (2.8%) from subtype G. The median age was 39 y/o (IQR: 31.0-47.0) and 85.2% of individuals were males. The main transmission route was via homosexual (MSM) contact (60.1%) and 85.0% originated from Western Europe. In total, 54.7% of individuals were classified as LPs and 41.7% of individuals were inside TCs. In subtype A, individuals in TCs were more frequently males and natives with a recent infection. For subtype B, individuals in TCs were more frequently individuals with MSM transmission route and with a recent infection. For subtype G, individuals in TCs were those with a recent infection. When analyzing cluster size, we found that LPs more frequently belonged to small clusters (<8 individuals), particularly dual clusters (2 individuals).

CONCLUSION

LP individuals are more present either outside or in small clusters, indicating a limited role of late presentation to HIV-1 transmission.

Characterization of Human Immunodeficiency Virus-1 Transmission Clusters and Transmitted Drug-Resistant Mutations in Croatia from 2019 to 2022

Molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 infection is challenging due to the highly diverse HIV-genome. We investigated the genetic diversity and prevalence of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) followed by phylogenetic analysis in 270 HIV-1 infected, treatment-naïve individuals from Croatia in the period 2019-2022. The results of this research confirmed a high overall prevalence of TDR of 16.7%. Resistance to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), non-nucleoside RTIs (NNRTIs), and protease inhibitors (PIs) was found in 9.6%, 7.4%, and 1.5% of persons, respectively. No resistance to integrase strand-transfer inhibitors (INSTIs) was found. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that 173/229 sequences (75.5%) were part of transmission clusters, and the largest identified was T215S, consisting of 45 sequences. Forward transmission was confirmed in several clusters. We compared deep sequencing (DS) with Sanger sequencing (SS) on 60 randomly selected samples and identified additional surveillance drug resistance mutations (SDRMs) in 49 of them. Our data highlight the need for baseline resistance testing in treatment-naïve persons. Although no major INSTIs were found, monitoring of SDRMs to INSTIs should be continued due to the extensive use of first- and second-generation INSTIs.

HIV-1 subtype B spread through cross-border clusters in the Balkans: a molecular analysis in view of incidence trends

OBJECTIVES

To analyze phylogenetic relations and assess the role of cross-border clusters in the spread of HIV-1 subtype B across the Balkans, given the general trends of new HIV diagnoses in seven Balkan countries.

DESIGN

Retrospective phylogenetic and trend analysis.

METHODS

In-depth phylogenetic, phylodynamic and phylogeographic analysis performed on 2415 HIV-1 subtype B sequences from 1999 to 2019 using maximal likelihood and Bayesian methods. The joinpoint regression analysis of new HIV diagnoses by country and modes of transmission using 2004-2019 ECDC data.

RESULTS

Ninety-three HIV-1 Subtype B transmission clusters (68% of studied sequences) were detected of which four cross-border clusters (11% of studied sequences). Phylodynamic analysis showed activity of cross-border clusters up until the mid-2000s, with a subsequent stationary growth phase. Phylogeography analyses revealed reciprocal spread patterns between Serbia, Slovenia and Montenegro and several introductions to Romania from these countries and Croatia. The joinpoint analysis revealed a reduction in new HIV diagnoses in Romania, Greece and Slovenia, whereas an increase in Serbia, Bulgaria, Croatia and Montenegro, predominantly among MSM.

CONCLUSION

Differing trends of new HIV diagnoses in the Balkans mirror differences in preventive policies implemented in participating countries. Regional spread of HIV within the countries of former Yugoslavia has continued to play an important role even after country break-up, whereas the spread of subtype B through multiple introductions to Romania suggested the changing pattern of travel and migration linked to European integration of Balkan countries in the early 2000s.

Tracing the First Days of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic in Greece and the Role of the First Imported Group of Travelers

The first SARS-CoV-2 case in Greece was confirmed on February 26, 2020, and since then, multiple strains have circulated the country, leading to regional and country-wide outbreaks. Our aim is to enlighten the events that took place during the first days of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Greece, focusing on the role of the first imported group of travelers. We used whole-genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences obtained from the infected travelers of the group as well as Greece-derived and globally subsampled sequences and applied dedicated phylogenetics and phylodynamics tools as well as in-house-developed bioinformatics pipelines. Our analyses reveal the genetic variants circulating in Greece during the first days of the pandemic and the role of the group's imported strains in the course of the first pandemic wave in Greece. The strain that dominated in Greece throughout the first wave, bearing the D614G mutation, was primarily imported from a certain group of travelers, while molecular and clinical data suggest that the infection of the travelers occurred in Egypt. Founder effects early in the pandemic are important for the success of certain strains, as those arriving early, several times, and to diverse locations lead to the formation of large transmission clusters that can be estimated using molecular epidemiology approaches and can be a useful surveillance tool for the prioritization of nonpharmaceutical interventions and combating present and future outbreaks. IMPORTANCE The strain that dominated in Greece during the first pandemic wave was primarily imported from a group of returning travelers in February 2020, while molecular and clinical data suggest that the origin of the transmission was Egypt. The observed molecular transmission clusters reflect the transmission dynamics of this particular strain bearing the D614G mutation while highlighting the necessity of their use as a surveillance tool for the prioritization of nonpharmaceutical interventions and combating present and future outbreaks.

Similar But Different: Integrated Phylogenetic Analysis of Austrian and Swiss HIV-1 Sequences Reveal Differences in Transmission Patterns of the Local HIV-1 Epidemics

OBJECTIVES

Phylogenetic analyses of 2 or more countries allow to detect differences in transmission dynamics of local HIV-1 epidemics beyond differences in demographic characteristics.

METHODS

A maximum-likelihood phylogenetic tree was built using pol -sequences of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) and the Austrian HIV Cohort Study (AHIVCOS), with international background sequences. Three types of phylogenetic cherries (clusters of size 2) were analyzed further: (1) domestic cherries; (2) international cherries; and (3) SHCS/AHIVCOS-cherries. Transmission group and ethnicities observed within the cherries were compared with the respective distribution expected from a random distribution of patients on the phylogeny.

RESULTS

The demographic characteristics of the AHIVCOS (included patients: 3'141) and the SHCS (included patients: 12'902) are very similar. In the AHIVCOS, 36.5% of the patients were in domestic cherries, 8.3% in international cherries, and 7.0% in SHCS/AHIVCOS cherries. Similarly, in the SHCS, 43.0% of the patients were in domestic cherries, 8.2% in international cherries, and 1.7% in SHCS/AHIVCOS cherries. Although international cherries in the SHCS were dominated by heterosexuals with men who have sex with men being underrepresented, the opposite was the case for the AHIVCOS. In both cohorts, cherries with one patient belonging to the transmission group intravenous drug user and the other one non-intravenous drug user were underrepresented.

CONCLUSIONS

In both cohorts, international HIV transmission plays a major role in the local epidemics, mostly driven by men who have sex with men in the AHIVOS, and by heterosexuals in the SHCS, highlighting the importance of international collaborations to understand global HIV transmission links on the way to eliminate HIV.

Molecular Epidemiology of HIV-1 in Oryol Oblast, Russia

The HIV/AIDS epidemic in Russia is growing, with approximately 100,000 people infected annually. Molecular epidemiology can provide insight into the structure and dynamics of the epidemic. However, its applicability in Russia is limited by the weakness of genetic surveillance, as viral genetic data are only available for <1 per cent of cases. Here, we provide a detailed description of the HIV-1 epidemic for one geographic region of Russia, Oryol Oblast, by collecting and sequencing viral samples from about a third of its known HIV-positive population (768 out of 2,157 patients). We identify multiple introductions of HIV-1 into Oryol Oblast, resulting in eighty-two transmission lineages that together comprise 66 per cent of the samples. Most introductions are of subtype A (315/332), the predominant HIV-1 subtype in Russia, followed by CRF63 and subtype B. Bayesian analysis estimates the effective reproduction number R_e for subtype A at 2.8 [1.7–4.4], in line with a growing epidemic. The frequency of CRF63 has been growing more rapidly, with the median R_e of 11.8 [4.6–28.7], in agreement with recent reports of this variant rising in frequency in some regions of Russia. In contrast to the patterns described previously in European and North American countries, we see no overrepresentation of males in transmission lineages; meanwhile, injecting drug users are overrepresented in transmission lineages. This likely reflects the structure of the HIV-1 epidemic in Russia dominated by heterosexual and, to a smaller extent, people who inject drugs transmission. Samples attributed to men who have sex with men (MSM) transmission are associated with subtype B and are less prevalent than expected from the male-to-female ratio for this subtype, suggesting underreporting of the MSM transmission route. Together, our results provide a high-resolution description of the HIV-1 epidemic in Oryol Oblast, Russia, characterized by frequent interregional transmission, rapid growth of the epidemic, and rapid displacement of subtype A with the recombinant CRF63 variant.

Differential patterns of postmigration HIV-1 infection acquisition among Portuguese immigrants of different geographical origins

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the dynamics of phylogenetic transmission clusters involving immigrants of Portuguese Speaking Countries living in Portugal.

DESIGN/METHODS

We included genomic sequences, sociodemographic and clinical data from 772 HIV migrants followed in Portugal between 2001 and 2017. To reconstruct HIV-1 transmission clusters, we applied phylogenetic inference from 16 454 patients: 772 migrants, 2973 Portuguese and 12 709 global controls linked to demographic and clinical data. Transmission clusters were defined using: clusters with SH greater than 90% (phylogenetic support), genetic distance less than 3.5% and clusters that included greater than 66% of patients from one specific geographic origin compared with the total of sequences within the cluster. Logistic regression was performed to assess factors associated with clustering.

RESULTS

Three hundred and six (39.6%) of migrants were included in transmission clusters. This proportion differed substantially by region of origin [Brazil 54% vs. Portuguese Speaking African Countries (PALOPs) 36%, P < 0.0001] and HIV-1 infecting subtype (B 52%, 43% subtype G and 32% CRF02_AG, P < 0.001). Belonging to a transmission cluster was independently associated with treatment-naive patients, CD4+ greater than 500, with recent calendar years of sampling, origin from PALOPs and with seroconversion. Among Brazilian migrants - mainly infected with subtype B - 40.6% were infected by Portuguese. Among migrants from PALOPs - mainly infected with subtypes G and CFR02_AG - the transmission occurred predominantly within the migrants' community (53 and 80%, respectively).

CONCLUSION

The acquisition of infection among immigrants living in Portugal differs according to the country of origin. These results can contribute to monitor the HIV epidemic and prevent new HIV infections among migrants.

Frequently Transmission and Close Relationship Among Immigrants in the China-Myanmar Border Region Indicated by Molecular Transmission Analysis From a Cross-Sectional Data

Background

Accurate identification of molecular transmission clusters (MTCs) and understanding the dynamics of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission are necessary to develop targeted interventions to prevent HIV transmission. We evaluated the characteristics of antiretroviral therapy-naïve individuals who belonged to HIV-1 MTCs in the China-Myanmar border region to inform targeted effective HIV intervention.

Methods

Phylogenetic analyses were undertaken on HIV-1 pol sequences to characterize subtypes or circulating recombinant forms and identify MTCs. MTCs were defined as those with 2 or more sequences having bootstrap support > 80% and a pairwise gene distance less than or equal to 0.03. Factors correlated with MTCs were evaluated using logistic regression analysis. The chi-square test was used to compare differences between Chinese and Burmese participants belonging to MTCs.

Results

A total of 900 people had their pol gene successfully sequenced. Twenty-one MTCs were identified and included 110 individuals (12.2%). Individuals in MTCs were more likely to be Burmese [aOR = 2.24 (95% CI: 1.33, 3.79), P = 0.003], be younger [aOR = 0.34 (95% CI: 0.20, 0.58), P < 0.001 for age 26-50 vs. 25 years or younger], have a lower CD4 T cell count [aOR = 2.86 (95% CI: 1.34, 6.11), P = 0.007 for < 200 vs. 350 or greater], and have subtypes CRF07_BC or C [CRF07_BC: aOR = 7.88 (95% CI: 3.55, 17.52), P < 0.001; C: aOR = 2.38 (95% CI: 1.23, 4.62), P = 0.010 compared to CRF01_AE]. In MTCs, Burmese were younger (89.7 vs. 57.7% for age 25 years or younger), had a lower education level (41.0 vs. 8.5% for illiterate), were more likely to be infected through injection drug use (35.9 vs. 12.7%), and had a higher proportion of subtype BC (33.3 vs. 15.5%) and CRF01_AE (20.5 vs. 8.5%) compared to Chinese (P < 0.05 for all).

Conclusion

Burmese participants were more likely to belong to MTCs, and most MTCs had both Burmese and Chinese participants. These data highlight the bidirectional transmission of HIV-1 frequently transmission and close relationship among immigrants in the China-Myanmar border region. Local health departments should pay more attention to HIV screening and intervention to immigrants Burmese with the characteristics of younger age, having lower CD4 T cell count and infected with HIV subtypes CRF07_ BC or C.

HIV-1-Transmitted Drug Resistance and Transmission Clusters in Newly Diagnosed Patients in Portugal Between 2014 and 2019

Objective

To describe and analyze transmitted drug resistance (TDR) between 2014 and 2019 in newly infected patients with HIV-1 in Portugal and to characterize its transmission networks.

Methods

Clinical, socioepidemiological, and risk behavior data were collected from 820 newly diagnosed patients in Portugal between September 2014 and December 2019. The sequences obtained from drug resistance testing were used for subtyping, TDR determination, and transmission cluster (TC) analyses.

Results

In Portugal, the overall prevalence of TDR between 2014 and 2019 was 11.0%. TDR presented a decreasing trend from 16.7% in 2014 to 9.2% in 2016 (p _for-trend = 0.114). Multivariate analysis indicated that TDR was significantly associated with transmission route (MSM presented a lower probability of presenting TDR when compared to heterosexual contact) and with subtype (subtype C presented significantly more TDR when compared to subtype B). TC analysis corroborated that the heterosexual risk group presented a higher proportion of TDR in TCs when compared to MSMs. Among subtype A1, TDR reached 16.6% in heterosexuals, followed by 14.2% in patients infected with subtype B and 9.4% in patients infected with subtype G.

Conclusion

Our molecular epidemiology approach indicates that the HIV-1 epidemic in Portugal is changing among risk group populations, with heterosexuals showing increasing levels of HIV-1 transmission and TDR. Prevention measures for this subpopulation should be reinforced.

Transmission Clusters, Predominantly Associated With Men Who Have Sex With Men, Play a Main Role in the Propagation of HIV-1 in Northern Spain (2013–2018)

Viruses of HIV-1-infected individuals whose transmission is related group phylogenetically in transmission clusters (TCs). The study of the phylogenetic relations of these viruses and the factors associated with these individuals is essential to analyze the HIV-1 epidemic. In this study, we examine the role of TCs in the epidemiology of HIV-1 infection in Galicia and the Basque County, two regions of northern Spain. A total of 1,158 HIV-1-infected patients from both regions with new diagnoses (NDs) in 2013–2018 were included in the study. Partial HIV-1 pol sequences were analyzed phylogenetically by approximately maximum-likelihood with FastTree 2. In this analysis, 10,687 additional sequences from samples from HIV-1-infected individuals collected in Spain in 1999–2019 were also included to assign TC membership and to determine TCs’ sizes. TCs were defined as those which included viruses from ≥4 individuals, at least 50% of them Spaniards, and with ≥0.95 Shimodaira-Hasegawa-like node support in the phylogenetic tree. Factors associated to TCs were evaluated using odds ratios (OR) and their 95% CI. Fifty-one percent of NDs grouped in 162 TCs. Male patients (OR: 2.6; 95% CI: 1.5–4.7) and men having sex with men (MSM; OR: 2.1; 95% CI: 1.4–3.2) had higher odds of belonging to a TC compared to female and heterosexual patients, respectively. Individuals from Latin America (OR: 0.3; 95% CI: 0.2–0.4), North Africa (OR: 0.4; 95% CI: 0.2–1.0), and especially Sub-Saharan Africa (OR: 0.02; 95% CI: 0.003–0.2) were inversely associated to belonging to TCs compared to native Spaniards. Our results show that TCs are important components of the HIV-1 epidemics in the two Spanish regions studied, where transmission between MSM is predominant. The majority of migrants were infected with viruses not belonging to TCs that expand in Spain. Molecular epidemiology is essential to identify local peculiarities of HIV-1 propagation. The early detection of TCs and prevention of their expansion, implementing effective control measures, could reduce HIV-1 infections.

Transmitted HIV-1 is more virulent in heterosexual individuals than men-who-have-sex-with-men

Transmission bottlenecks introduce selection pressures on HIV-1 that vary with the mode of transmission. Recent studies on small cohorts have suggested that stronger selection pressures lead to fitter transmitted/founder (T/F) strains. Manifestations of this selection bias at the population level have remained elusive. Here, we analysed early CD4 cell count measurements reported from ∼340,000 infected heterosexual individuals (HET) and men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM), across geographies, ethnicities and calendar years. The reduction in CD4 counts early in infection is reflective of the virulence of T/F strains. MSM and HET use predominant modes of transmission, namely, anal and penile-vaginal, with among the largest differences in the selection pressures at transmission across modes. Further, in most geographies, the groups show little inter-mixing, allowing for the differential selection bias to be sustained and amplified. We found that the early reduction in CD4 counts was consistently greater in HET than MSM (P<0.05). To account for inherent variations in baseline CD4 counts, we constructed a metric to quantify the extent of progression to AIDS as the ratio of the reduction in measured CD4 counts from baseline and the reduction associated with AIDS. We found that this progression corresponding to the early CD4 measurements was ∼68% for MSM and ∼87% for HET on average (P<10⁻⁴; Cohen’s d, d_s = 0.36), reflecting the more severe disease caused by T/F strains in HET than MSM at the population level. Interestingly, the set-point viral load was not different between the groups (d_s<0.12), suggesting that MSM were more tolerant and not more resistant to their T/F strains than HET. This difference remained when we controlled for confounding factors using multivariable regression. We concluded that the different selection pressures at transmission have resulted in more virulent T/F strains in HET than MSM. These findings have implications for our understanding of HIV-1 pathogenesis, evolution, and epidemiology.

HIV-1 encounters a key bottleneck at the time of its transmission from one individual to another. This transmission bottleneck can differ between modes of transmission. The stronger this bottleneck is, the more fit the virus has to be to be successfully transmitted. Accordingly, the transmitted/founder (T/F) strains of HIV-1 may have different fitness in risk groups that use different modes of transmission. While studies on small cohorts do support this notion, observations of the manifestations of this differential selection bias at the population level have been lacking. Here, we examined reported early CD4 count measurements from ∼340,000 HET and MSM, across geographies, ethnicities, and calendar years. Early CD4 counts are a measure of the severity of the infection due to T/F strains. HET and MSM transmit predominantly via penile-vaginal and anal modes, respectively, and do not inter-mix significantly. Remarkably, we found that HET consistently had lower early CD4 counts than MSM. This difference could not be attributed to potential confounding factors, such as set-point viral load. The difference thus provided evidence that T/F strains had evolved to be more virulent in HET than MSM at the population level. Intervention strategies may benefit from accounting for this difference between risk groups.

Identification of risk factors associated with national transmission and late presentation of HIV-1, Denmark, 2009 to 2017

BackgroundDespite availability of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), the incidence of HIV-1 in Europe remained stable the past decade. Reduction of new HIV-1 infections requires more knowledge about the profiles of high-risk transmitters and late presenters (LP).AimWe aimed to investigate risk factors associated with HIV-1 transmission clusters and late presentation with HIV-1 in Denmark.MethodsBlood samples and epidemiological information were collected from newly diagnosed HIV-1 patients between 2009 and 2017. We genotyped pol genes and performed phylogenetic analyses to identify clusters. Risk factors for clustering and LP were investigated with partial proportional odds and logistic regression. Covariates included transmission mode, HIV-1 subtype, age, origin and cluster activity.ResultsWe included 1,040 individuals in the analysis, 59.6% identified with subtype B and 48.4% in a cluster. Risk factors for clustering included Danish origin (odds ratio (OR): 2.95; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.21-3.96), non-LP (OR: 1.44; 95% CI: 1.12-1.86), and men who have sex with men (MSM). Increasing age and non-B subtype infection decreased risk (OR: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.50-0.94). Risk for late presentation was lower for active clusters (OR: 0.60; 95% CI: 0.44-0.82) and Danish origin (OR: 0.43; 95% CI: 0.27-0.67). Non-Danish MSM had a lower risk than non-Danish heterosexuals (OR: 0.34; 95% CI: 0.21-0.55).ConclusionHIV-1 transmission in Denmark is driven by early diagnosed, young, subtype B infected MSM. These may benefit most from PrEP. Non-Danish heterosexual HIV-1 patients could benefit from improved communication to achieve earlier diagnosis and treatment.

Variable Proportions of Phylogenetic Clustering and Low Levels of Antiviral Drug Resistance among the Major HBV Sub-Genotypes in the Middle East and North Africa

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains a major public health threat in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Phylogenetic analysis of HBV can be helpful to study the putative transmission links and patterns of inter-country spread of the virus. The objectives of the current study were to analyze the HBV genotype/sub-genotype (SGT) distribution, reverse transcriptase (RT), and surface (S) gene mutations and to investigate the domestic transmission of HBV in the MENA. All HBV molecular sequences collected in the MENA were retrieved from GenBank as of 30 April 2021. Determination of genotypes/SGT, RT, and S mutations were based on the Geno2pheno (hbv) 2.0 online tool. For the most prevalent HBV SGTs, maximum likelihood phylogenetic analysis was conducted to identify the putative phylogenetic clusters, with approximate Shimodaira-Hasegawa-like likelihood ratio test values ≥ 0.90, and genetic distance cut-off values ≤ 0.025 substitutions/site as implemented in Cluster Picker. The total number of HBV sequences used for genotype/SGT determination was 4352 that represented a total of 20 MENA countries, with a majority from Iran (n = 2103, 48.3%), Saudi Arabia (n = 503, 11.6%), Tunisia (n = 395, 9.1%), and Turkey (n = 267, 6.1%). Genotype D dominated infections in the MENA (86.6%), followed by genotype A (4.1%), with SGT D1 as the most common in 14 MENA countries and SGT D7 dominance in the Maghreb. The highest prevalence of antiviral drug resistance was observed against lamivudine (4.5%) and telbivudine (4.3%). The proportion of domestic phylogenetic clustering was the highest for SGT D7 (61.9%), followed by SGT D2 (28.2%) and genotype E (25.7%). The largest fraction of domestic clusters with evidence of inter-country spread within the MENA was seen in SGT D7 (81.3%). Small networks (containing 3-14 sequences) dominated among domestic phylogenetic clusters. Specific patterns of HBV genetic diversity were seen in the MENA with SGT D1 dominance in the Levant, Iran, and Turkey; SGT D7 dominance in the Maghreb; and extensive diversity in Saudi Arabia and Egypt. A low prevalence of lamivudine, telbivudine, and entecavir drug resistance was observed in the region, with almost an absence of resistance to tenofovir and adefovir. Variable proportions of phylogenetic clustering indicated prominent domestic transmission of SGT D7 (particularly in the Maghreb) and relatively high levels of virus mobility in SGT D1.

Epidemiological profile and molecular genetic characterization of HIV-1 among female sex workers and elderly male clients in Guangxi, China

The HIV/AIDS prevalence in female sex workers (FSWs) and elderly male clients is increasing in Guangxi, China, but the transmission relationship between them remains unclear. This study aims to illuminate the transmission network between FSWs and elderly male clients using molecular epidemiological analyses. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that CRF01_AE was the dominant strain, followed by CRF07_BC and CRF08_BC in both groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that viral loads of 50 to 1000 copies/mL, immunological treatment failure and CRF07_BC were risk factors for entering the transmission network. Transmission network analysis showed that CRF07_BC tended to form large clusters, whereas CRF01_AE tended to form multiple but small clusters. Two groups of 11 FSWs and 169 clients were intricately intertwined. Spatial analysis demonstrated the formation of hotspots and clusters of transmission sharing regional differences. In conclusion, our study provides direct genetic evidence of transmission linkages between FSWs and elderly male clients. Although the CRF01_AE subtype was still the predominant subtype in the region, the higher degree and larger clusters found in CRF07_BC illustrate a rapid and intensive uptrend, which is expected to increase its prevalence in the region in the future.

Molecular epidemiology and HIV-1 variant evolution in Poland between 2015 and 2019

The occurrence of HIV-1 subtypes differs worldwide and within Europe, with non-B variants mainly found across different exposure groups. In this study, we investigated the distribution and temporal trends in HIV-1 subtype variability across Poland between 2015 and 2019. Sequences of the pol gene fragment from 2518 individuals were used for the analysis of subtype prevalence. Subtype B was dominant (n = 2163, 85.90%). The proportion of subtype B-infected individuals decreased significantly, from 89.3% in 2015 to 80.3% in 2019. This was related to the increasing number of subtype A infections. In 355 (14.10%) sequences, non-B variants were identified. In 65 (2.58%) samples, recombinant forms (RFs) were noted. Unique recombinant forms (URFs) were found in 30 (1.19%) sequences. Three A/B recombinant clusters were identified of which two were A6/B mosaic viruses not previously described. Non-B clades were significantly more common among females (n = 81, 22.8%, p = 0.001) and heterosexually infected individuals (n = 45, 32.4%, p = 0.0031). The predominance of subtype B is evident, but the variability of HIV-1 in Poland is notable. Almost half of RFs (n = 65, 2.58%) was comprised of URFs (n = 30, 1.19%); thus those forms were common in the analyzed population. Hence, molecular surveillance of identified variants ensures recognition of HIV-1 evolution in Poland.

Transmitted HIV drug resistance and subtype patterns among blood donors in Poland

Surveillance on the HIV molecular variability, risk of drug resistance transmission and evolution of novel viral variants among blood donors remains an understudied aspect of hemovigilance. This nationwide study analyses patterns of HIV diversity and transmitted resistance mutations. Study included 185 samples from the first time and repeat blood donors with HIV infection identified by molecular assay. HIV protease, reverse transcriptase and integrase were sequenced using population methods. Drug resistance mutation (DRM) patterns were analyzed based on the Stanford Interpretation Algorithm and standardized lists of transmitted mutations. Phylogeny was used to investigate subtyping, clustering and recombination patterns. HIV-1 subtype B (89.2%) followed by subtype A6 (7.6%) were predominant, while in three (1.6%) cases, novel recombinant B/A6 variants were identified. Non-B variants were more common among repeat donors (14.5%) compared to the first time ones (1.8%), p = 0.011, with higher frequency (9.9%) of A6 variant in the repeat donor group, p = 0.04. Major NRTI DRMs were observed in 3.8%, NNRTI and PI in 0.6% and INSTI 1.1% of cases. Additionally, E157Q polymorphism was observed in 9.8% and L74I in 11.5% of integrase sequences. Transmission of drug resistance among blood donors remains infrequent. Subtype patters increase in complexity with emergence of novel intersubtype A6B recombinants.

HIV-1 subtype diversity and transmission strain source among men who have sex with men in Guangxi, China

With the rapid increase in HIV prevalence of men who have sex with men (MSM) in recent years and common human migration and travelling across different provinces in China, MSM are now finding it easier to meet each other, which might contribute to local HIV epidemics as well as fueling cross-province transmission. We performed a cross-sectional survey in 2018-2019 to investigate the current HIV subtype diversity and inferred HIV strain transmission origin among MSM in Guangxi province, China based on a phylogenetic analysis. Based on 238 samples, we found that the HIV-1 subtype diversity was more complicated than before, except for three major HIV subtypes/circulating recombinant forms (CRFs): CRF07_BC, CRF01_AE, CRF55_01B, five other subtypes/CRFs (CRF59_01B, B, CRF08_BC, CRF67_01B, CRF68_01B) and five unique recombinant forms (URFs) were detected. In total, 76.8% (169/220) of samples were infected with HIV from local circulating strains, while others originated from other provinces, predominantly Guangdong and Shanghai. The high diversity of HIV recombinants and complicated HIV transmission sources in Guangxi MSM indicates that there has been an active sexual network between HIV positive MSM both within and outside Guangxi without any effective prevention. Inter-province collaboration must be enforced to provide tailored HIV prevention and control services to MSM in China.

SARS-CoV-2 Molecular Transmission Clusters and Containment Measures in Ten European Regions during the First Pandemic Wave

Background: The spatiotemporal profiling of molecular transmission clusters (MTCs) using viral genomic data can effectively identify transmission networks in order to inform public health actions targeting SARS-CoV-2 spread. Methods: We used whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences derived from ten European regions belonging to eight countries to perform phylogenetic and phylodynamic analysis. We developed dedicated bioinformatics pipelines to identify regional MTCs and to assess demographic factors potentially associated with their formation. Results: The total number and the scale of MTCs varied from small household clusters identified in all regions, to a super-spreading event found in Uusimaa-FI. Specific age groups were more likely to belong to MTCs in different regions. The clustered sequences referring to the age groups 50–100 years old (y.o.) were increased in all regions two weeks after the establishment of the lockdown, while those referring to the age group 0–19 y.o. decreased only in those regions where schools’ closure was combined with a lockdown. Conclusions: The spatiotemporal profiling of the SARS-CoV-2 MTCs can be a useful tool to monitor the effectiveness of the interventions and to reveal cryptic transmissions that have not been identified through contact tracing.

Validation of molecular clock inferred HIV infection ages: Evidence for accurate estimation of infection dates

BACKGROUND

Improving HIV diagnosis, access to care and effective antiretroviral treatment provides our global strategy to reduce HIV incidence. To reach this goal we need to increase our knowledge about local epidemics. HIV infection dates would be an important information towards this goal, but they are largely unknown. To date, methods to estimate the dates of HIV infection are based mainly on laboratory or molecular methods. Our aim was to validate molecular clock inferred infection dates that were estimated by analysing sequences from 145 people living with HIV (PLHIV) with known transmission dates (clinically estimated infection dates).

METHODS

All HIV sequences were obtained by Sanger sequencing and were previously found to belong to well-established molecular transmission clusters (MTCs).

RESULTS

Our analysis showed that the molecular clock inferred infection dates were correlated with the clinically estimated ones (Spearman's Correlation coefficient = 0.93, p < 0.001) and that there was an agreement between them (Lin's concordance correlation coefficient = 0.92, p < 0.001). For the 61.4% of cases the molecular clock inferred preceded the clinically estimated infection dates. The median difference between clinically and molecularly estimated dates of infection was of 0.18 (IQR: -0.21, 0.89) years. The lowest differences were identified in people who inject drugs of our study population.

CONCLUSIONS

The estimated time to more recent common ancestor (t_MRCA) of nodes within clusters provides a reliable approximation of HIV infections for PLHIV infected within MTCs. Next-generation sequencing data and molecular clock estimates based on heterochronous sequences provide, probably, more reliable methods for inferring infection dates. However, since these data are not available in most of the HIV clinical laboratories, our approach, under specific conditions, can provide a reliable estimation of HIV infection dates and can be used for HIV public health interventions.

Infection with HIV-1 subtype D adversely affects the live expectancy independently of antiretroviral drug use

INTRODUCTION

HIV-1 subtypes have been associated with less favourable clinical profiles, differences in disease progression and higher risk of neurocognitive deficit. In this study we aimed to analyse the long term survival disparities between patients infected with the most common HIV-1 variants observed in Poland.

METHODS

For the study data from 518 Caucasian non-immigrant patients of Polish origin infected with divergent HIV subtypes and variants [subtype A (n = 35, 6.8%), subtype B (n = 386, 74.5%), subtype C (n = 13, 2.5%), subtype D (n = 58, 11.19%) or other non-A,B,C,D (n = 26, 5.01%)variants] were analysed. Subtyping was performed using the partial pol (reverse transcriptase and protease) sequencing. HIV variant was coupled with clinical, virologic and survival data censored at 20 years of observation. Overall survival and on antiretroviral treatment survival was analysed using Kaplan-Meyer as well as unadjusted and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

Significantly higher mortality was observed among subtype D (28.8%) infected subjects compared to subtype B (11.7%, p = 0.0004). Increased risk of death among subtype D cases remained significant when cART treated individuals were analysed, with on-treatment mortality of 26.9% for subtype D (p = 0.006) compared to 10.73% in subtype B infected cases. Kaplan-Meyer survival estimates differed significantly across all investigated HIV-1 variant groups when overall 20 year mortality was analysed (log rank p = 0.029), being non-significant for the cART treated group. In multivariate model of overall 20 year survival, adjusted for age at diagnosis, gender, HCV and AIDS status, lymphocyte CD4 count, transmission route and HIV viral load, only age and subtype D were independently associated with higher likelihood of death [HR: 1.08 (95%CI: 1.03-1.14, p = 0.002) and HR: 7.91 (95%CI:2.33-26.86), p < 0.001, respectively]. In the on-treatment (cART) multivariate model of 20 year survival adjusted for the same parameters only subtype D remained as the independent factor associated with higher mortality risk [HR: 4.24 (95%CI:1.31-13.7), p = 0.02].

CONCLUSIONS

Subtype D has an independent deleterious effect of survival, even in the setting of antiretroviral treatment. Observed effect indicated higher clinical vigilance for patients infected with this subtype even after long time of stable antiretroviral treatment.

Patterns and risk of HIV-1 transmission network among men who have sex with men in Guangxi, China

The prevalence of HIV-1 in Guangxi is very high, and the rate of HIV-1 infection among men who have sex with men (MSM) has been increasing. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the patterns and risk factors of HIV transmission in Guangxi. For this purpose, individuals diagnosed with HIV-1 during 2013-2018 in Guangxi were recruited. Phylogenetic relationship, transmission clusters, and genotypic drug resistance analyses were performed based on HIV-1 pol sequences. Related factors were analysed to assess for their association with HIV-1 transmission. CRF07_BC (50.4%) and CRF01_AE (33.4%) were found to be the predominant subtypes. The analysed 1633 sequences (50.15%, Guangxi; 49.85%, other provinces) were segregated into 80 clusters (size per cluster, 2-704). We found that 75.3% of the individuals were in three clusters (size ˃ 100), and 73.8% were high-risk spreaders (links ≥ 4). Infection time, marital status, and subtype were significantly associated with HIV-1 transmission. Additionally, 80.2% of recent infections were linked to long-term infections, and 46.2% were linked to other provinces. A low level of transmitted drug resistance was detected (4.8%). Our findings indicated superclusters and high-risk HIV-1 spreaders among the MSM in Guangxi. Effective strategies blocking the route of transmission should be developed.

Subtype-specific differences in transmission cluster dynamics of HIV-1 B and CRF01_AE in New South Wales, Australia

INTRODUCTION

The human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) pandemic is characterized by numerous distinct sub-epidemics (clusters) that continually fuel local transmission. The aims of this study were to identify active growing clusters, to understand which factors most influence the transmission dynamics, how these vary between different subtypes and how this information might contribute to effective public health responses.

METHODS

We used HIV-1 genomic sequence data linked to demographic factors that accounted for approximately 70% of all new HIV-1 notifications in New South Wales (NSW). We assessed differences in transmission cluster dynamics between subtype B and circulating recombinant form 01_AE (CRF01_AE). Separate phylogenetic trees were estimated using 2919 subtype B and 473 CRF01_AE sequences sampled between 2004 and 2018 in combination with global sequence data and NSW-specific clades were classified as clusters, pairs or singletons. Significant differences in demographics between subtypes were assessed with Chi-Square statistics.

RESULTS

We identified 104 subtype B and 11 CRF01_AE growing clusters containing a maximum of 29 and 11 sequences for subtype B and CRF01_AE respectively. We observed a > 2-fold increase in the number of NSW-specific CRF01_AE clades over time. Subtype B clusters were associated with individuals reporting men who have sex with men (MSM) as their transmission risk factor, being born in Australia, and being diagnosed during the early stage of infection (p < 0.01). CRF01_AE infections clusters were associated with infections among individuals diagnosed during the early stage of infection (p < 0.05) and CRF01_AE singletons were more likely to be from infections among individuals reporting heterosexual transmission (p < 0.05). We found six subtype B clusters with an above-average growth rate (>1.5 sequences / 6-months) and which consisted of a majority of infections among MSM. We also found four active growing CRF01_AE clusters containing only infections among MSM. Finally, we found 47 subtype B and seven CRF01_AE clusters that contained a large gap in time (>1 year) between infections and may be indicative of intermediate transmissions via undiagnosed individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

The large number of active and growing clusters among MSM are the driving force of the ongoing epidemic in NSW for subtype B and CRF01_AE.

Advances in research of HIV transmission networks

Transmission network analysis is a crucial evaluation tool aiming to explore the characteristics of the human immunodeficiency virus epidemic, develop evidence-based prevention strategies, and contribute to various areas of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome prevention and control. Over recent decades, transmission networks have made tremendous strides in terms of modes, methods, applications, and various other aspects. Transmission network methods, including social, sexual, and molecular transmission networks, have played a pivotal role. Each transmission network research method has its advantages, as well as its limitations. In this study, we established a systematic review of these aforementioned transmission networks with respect to their definitions, applications, limitations, recent progress, and synthetic applications.

A Nationwide Study about the Dispersal Patterns of the Predominant HIV-1 Subtypes A1 and B in Greece: Inference of the Molecular Transmission Clusters

Our aim was to investigate the dispersal patterns and parameters associated with local molecular transmission clusters (MTCs) of subtypes A1 and B in Greece (predominant HIV-1 subtypes). The analysis focused on 1751 (28.4%) and 2575 (41.8%) sequences of subtype A1 and B, respectively. Identification of MTCs was based on phylogenetic analysis. The analyses identified 38 MTCs including 2-1518 subtype A1 sequences and 168 MTCs in the range of 2-218 subtype B sequences. The proportion of sequences within MTCs was 93.8% (1642/1751) and 77.0% (1982/2575) for subtype A1 and B, respectively. Transmissions within MTCs for subtype A1 were associated with risk group (Men having Sex with Men vs. heterosexuals, OR = 5.34, p < 0.001) and Greek origin (Greek vs. non-Greek origin, OR = 6.05, p < 0.001) and for subtype B, they were associated with Greek origin (Greek vs. non-Greek origin, OR = 1.57, p = 0.019), younger age (OR = 0.96, p < 0.001), and more recent sampling (time period: 2011-2015 vs. 1999-2005, OR = 3.83, p < 0.001). Our findings about the patterns of across and within country dispersal as well as the parameters associated with transmission within MTCs provide a framework for the application of the study of molecular clusters for HIV prevention.

The origin and spread of CRF85_BC, driven by heterosexual transmission among older people in Sichuan, China

BACKGROUND

CRF_BC recombinants, including CRF07_BC and CRF08_BC, were considered the predominant subtypes in China. Since the discovery of HIV-1 circulating recombinant form CRF 85_BC in Southwest China in 2016, this BC recombinant forms had been reported in different regions of China. However, the history and magnitude of CRF85_BC transmission were still to be investigated.

METHOD

We conducted the most recent molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 among newly reported HIV-1 infected patients in Sichuan in 2019 by sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of 1291 pol sequences. Then, we used maximum likelihood approach and the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling of pol sequences to reconstruct the phylogeographic and demographic dynamics of the CRF85_BC.

RESULTS

HIV-1 CRF85_BC (68/1291, 5.27%) became the fourth most prevalent strain revealing a significant increase in local population. CRF85_BC were only found in heterosexually infected individuals and the majority of CRF85_BC (95.45%) were circulating among the people living with HIV aged 50 years and over (PLHIV50+), suggesting a unique prevalent pattern. The founder lineages of CRF85_BC were likely to have first emerged in Yunnan, a province of Southwest China bordering Sichuan, in the early 2000s. It then spread exponentially to various places (including Guangxi, Sichuan, et al) and became endemic around 2008.6 (2006.7-2010.2) in Sichuan.

CONCLUSION

Taken together, our findings on HIV-1 subtype CRF85_BC infections provided new insights into the spread of this virus and extended the understanding of the HIV epidemic in China.

The first 90: the gateway to prevention and care: opening slowly, but not for all

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Knowledge of HIV status is the gateway to HIV treatment and prevention, and optimizing this pillar is essential to bend the curve of the HIV epidemic toward zero new infections. This review will discuss the epidemiology of serostatus awareness, including disparities among key populations, and explore interventions and societal barriers.

RECENT FINDINGS

Rates of serostatus awareness have improved overall; however, progress is lagging in many regions, nations and populations, with substantial disparities seen among key populations. These populations and their partners now contribute the majority of new infections, fueling the epidemic. Data support a variety of interventions that have demonstrated effectiveness in increasing new diagnoses, particularly among underserved populations. Structural and societal barriers such as stigma, discriminatory laws and policies, and social determinants of health disproportionately affect key populations, and these must be addressed to achieve equity and end the epidemic.

SUMMARY

According to United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), the pace of progress toward epidemic control has slowed. Achieving substantial increases in serostatus awareness to meet 2020 and 2030 UNAIDS goals will require attacking complex societal barriers while bringing evidence-based interventions to scale in each nation and key population. A robust advocacy effort is now needed as political will and funding wane.

Earlier treatment initiation is associated with a decreased number of HIV-1 subtype A1 transmissions in Greece

OBJECTIVES

Subtypes A1 and B are the most prevalent HIV-1 clades in Greece. Subtype A1 epidemic is highly monophyletic and corresponds to transmissions that occurred locally. Our aim in this molecular epidemiology analysis was to investigate the role of early treatment in preventing new HIV-1 transmissions.

METHODS

Our analysis focused on 791 subtype A1 sequences from treatment-naïve individuals in Greece. Estimation of infection dates was performed by molecular clock calculations using Bayesian methods. We estimated the time interval between (1) the infection and sampling dates (linkage to care window), (2) the sampling dates and antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation (treatment window), and (3) the infection dates and ART initiation (transmissibility window) for the study population. We also inferred the putative source of HIV infections between individuals of different groups divided according to the length of treatment, linkage to care or transmissibility window.

RESULTS

A significant decline was detected for the treatment window during 2014-2015 versus the 2 previous years (p=0.0273), while the linkage to care interval remained unchanged during the study period. Inference of the putative source of HIV infections suggested that individuals with a recent diagnosis or narrow transmissibility window (time period between HIV infection and ART initiation) were not sources of HIV infections to other groups. Contrarily, a significant number of HIV infections originated from individuals with longer transmissibility window interval.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings showed that the treatment window is decreasing over time, presumably due to the updated treatment guidelines. Our study also demonstrates that people treated earlier after infection do not transmit at high rates, thus documenting the benefits of early ART initiation in preventing ongoing HIV-1 transmission.

Phylodynamics Helps to Evaluate the Impact of an HIV Prevention Intervention

Assessment of the long-term population-level effects of HIV interventions is an ongoing public health challenge. Following the implementation of a Transmission Reduction Intervention Project (TRIP) in Odessa, Ukraine, in 2013-2016, we obtained HIV pol gene sequences and used phylogenetics to identify HIV transmission clusters. We further applied the birth-death skyline model to the sequences from Odessa (n = 275) and Kyiv (n = 92) in order to estimate changes in the epidemic's effective reproductive number (Re) and rate of becoming uninfectious (δ). We identified 12 transmission clusters in Odessa; phylogenetic clustering was correlated with younger age and higher average viral load at the time of sampling. Estimated Re were similar in Odessa and Kyiv before the initiation of TRIP; Re started to decline in 2013 and is now below Re = 1 in Odessa (Re = 0.4, 95%HPD 0.06-0.75), but not in Kyiv (Re = 2.3, 95%HPD 0.2-5.4). Similarly, estimates of δ increased in Odessa after the initiation of TRIP. Given that both cities shared the same HIV prevention programs in 2013-2019, apart from TRIP, the observed changes in transmission parameters are likely attributable to the TRIP intervention. We propose that molecular epidemiology analysis can be used as a post-intervention effectiveness assessment tool.

Molecular network-based intervention brings us closer to ending the HIV pandemic

Precise identification of HIV transmission among populations is a key step in public health responses. However, the HIV transmission network is usually difficult to determine. HIV molecular networks can be determined by phylogenetic approach, genetic distance-based approach, and a combination of both approaches. These approaches are increasingly used to identify transmission networks among populations, reconstruct the history of HIV spread, monitor the dynamics of HIV transmission, guide targeted intervention on key subpopulations, and assess the effects of interventions. Simulation and retrospective studies have demonstrated that these molecular network-based interventions are more cost-effective than random or traditional interventions. However, we still need to address several challenges to improve the practice of molecular network-guided targeting interventions to finally end the HIV epidemic. The data remain limited or difficult to obtain, and more automatic real-time tools are required. In addition, molecular and social networks must be combined, and technical parameters and ethnic issues warrant further studies.

The Impact of Human Mobility on Regional and Global Efforts to Control HIV Transmission

HIV prevention and control methods are implemented on different scales to reduce the spread of the virus amongst populations. However, despite such efforts, HIV continues to persist in populations with a global incidence rate of 1.8 million in 2017 alone. The introduction of new infections into susceptible regional populations promotes the spread of HIV, indicating a crucial need to study the impact of migration and mobility on regional and global efforts to prevent HIV transmission. Here we reviewed studies that assess the impact of human mobility on HIV transmission and spread. We found an important role for both travel and migration in driving the spread of HIV across regional and national borders. Combined, our results indicate that even in the presence of control and preventive efforts, if migration and travel are occurring, public health efforts will need to remain persistent to ensure that new infections do not grow into outbreaks.

Prevalence of Non-B HIV-1 Subtypes in North Italy and Analysis of Transmission Clusters Based on Sequence Data Analysis

HIV-1 diversity is increasing in European countries due to immigration flows, as well as travels and human mobility, leading to the circulation of both new viral subtypes and new recombinant forms, with important implications for public health. We analyzed 710 HIV-1 sequences comprising protease and reverse-transcriptase (PR/RT) coding regions, sampled from 2011 to 2017, from naive patients in Spedali Civili Hospital, Brescia, Italy. Subtyping was performed by using a combination of different tools; the phylogenetic analysis with a structured coalescence model and Makarov Chain Monte Carlo was used on the datasets, to determine clusters and evolution. We detected 304 (43%) patients infected with HIV-1 non-B variants, of which only 293 sequences were available, with four pure subtypes and five recombinant forms; subtype F1 (17%) and CRF02_AG (51.1%) were most common. Twenty-five transmission clusters were identified, three of which included >10 patients, belonging to subtype CRF02_AG and subtype F. Most cases of alleged transmission were between heterosexual couples. Probably due to strong migratory flows, we have identified different subtypes with particular patterns of recombination or, as in the case of the subtype G (18/293, 6.1%), to a complete lack of relationship between the sequenced strains, revealing that they are all singletons. Continued HIV molecular surveillance is most important to analyze the dynamics of the boost of transmission clusters in order to implement public health interventions aimed at controlling the HIV epidemic.

Stable level of HIV transmitted drug resistance in Estonia despite significant scale-up of antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND

Due to the widespread use of non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI) as part of first-line therapies to curb the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic in Eastern-European countries, transmitted drug resistance (TDR) is of serious concern in this region. Therefore, TDR and its associated risk factors were investigated among newly diagnosed HIV-1 subjects in Estonia.

METHODS

This nationwide observational study included all newly diagnosed HIV-1 subjects from January 1 until December 31, 2013. Demographic and clinical data were collected using the national surveillance system and the Estonian HIV-positive patient database (E-HIV). Starting from RNA, the HIV-1 protease (PR) and reverse transcriptase (RT) region was sequenced and surveillance drug resistance mutations (SDRM) were determined. Sequences from previous studies in Estonia and from public databases were included to study epidemic trends and to determine TDR clusters by phylogenetic analysis.

RESULTS

Out of 325 newly diagnosed HIV-1 infections, 224 were successfully sequenced (68%). As in previous studies from Estonia, the circulating recombinant form CRF06_cpx was the most prevalent HIV subtype (164/224, 74%). Fifteen strains displayed SDRM, giving a TDR rate of 6.7% (95% CI 3.9; 11.0). The most common SDRMs were associated with NNRTI (10/15, 4.5%), followed by PI (3/15, 1.3%) and NRTI (2/15, 0.9%). K103 N (8/15, 53%) was the most common SDRM. The level of TDR and mutational patterns were comparable to previous years. Twenty-six transmission clusters containing Estonian sequences were observed, of which 23/26 belonged to CRF06_cpx and 2/26 displayed evidence of TDR. The only risk factor associated with the presence of TDR was imprisonment (OR 5.187, CI 1.139-25.565, p = 0.034).

CONCLUSIONS

TDR remained stable at a moderate level in Estonia, K103N is the main SDRM with only one transmission-pair detected. We suggest screening for TDR at the time of diagnosis or prior to antiretroviral treatment initiation to tailor first-line regimens accordingly.

SUMMARY

The third consecutive transmitted drug resistance (TDR) study demonstrated a stable TDR in Estonia. TDR reached 6.7% (moderate level) in 2013, with imprisonment being the only associated risk factor. Few drug resistance-associated transmission clusters were identified.

Diverse Large HIV-1 Non-subtype B Clusters Are Spreading Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in Spain

In Western Europe, the HIV-1 epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) is dominated by subtype B. However, recently, other genetic forms have been reported to circulate in this population, as evidenced by their grouping in clusters predominantly comprising European individuals. Here we describe four large HIV-1 non-subtype B clusters spreading among MSM in Spain. Samples were collected in 9 regions. A pol fragment was amplified from plasma RNA or blood-extracted DNA. Phylogenetic analyses were performed via maximum likelihood, including database sequences of the same genetic forms as the identified clusters. Times and locations of the most recent common ancestors (MRCA) of clusters were estimated with a Bayesian method. Five large non-subtype B clusters associated with MSM were identified. The largest one, of F1 subtype, was reported previously. The other four were of CRF02_AG (CRF02_1; n = 115) and subtypes A1 (A1_1; n = 66), F1 (F1_3; n = 36), and C (C_7; n = 17). Most individuals belonging to them had been diagnosed of HIV-1 infection in the last 10 years. Each cluster comprised viruses from 3 to 8 Spanish regions and also comprised or was related to viruses from other countries: CRF02_1 comprised a Japanese subcluster and viruses from 8 other countries from Western Europe, Asia, and South America; A1_1 comprised viruses from Portugal, United Kingom, and United States, and was related to the A1 strain circulating in Greece, Albania and Cyprus; F1_3 was related to viruses from Romania; and C_7 comprised viruses from Portugal and was related to a virus from Mozambique. A subcluster within CRF02_1 was associated with heterosexual transmission. Near full-length genomes of each cluster were of uniform genetic form. Times of MRCAs of CRF02_1, A1_1, F1_3, and C_7 were estimated around 1986, 1989, 2013, and 1983, respectively. MRCA locations for CRF02_1 and A1_1 were uncertain (however initial expansions in Spain in Madrid and Vigo, respectively, were estimated) and were most probable in Bilbao, Spain, for F1_3 and Portugal for C_7. These results show that the HIV-1 epidemic among MSM in Spain is becoming increasingly diverse through the expansion of diverse non-subtype B clusters, comprising or related to viruses circulating in other countries.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of the Largest HIV-1 CRF02_AG Outbreak in Spain: Evidence for Onward Transmissions

Background and Aim: The circulating recombinant form 02_AG (CRF02_AG) is the predominant clade among the human immunodeficiency virus type-1 (HIV-1) non-Bs with a prevalence of 5.97% (95% Confidence Interval-CI: 5.41–6.57%) across Spain. Our aim was to estimate the levels of regional clustering for CRF02_AG and the spatiotemporal characteristics of the largest CRF02_AG subepidemic in Spain.

Methods: We studied 396 CRF02_AG sequences obtained from HIV-1 diagnosed patients during 2000–2014 from 10 autonomous communities of Spain. Phylogenetic analysis was performed on the 391 CRF02_AG sequences along with all globally sampled CRF02_AG sequences (N = 3,302) as references. Phylodynamic and phylogeographic analysis was performed to the largest CRF02_AG monophyletic cluster by a Bayesian method in BEAST v1.8.0 and by reconstructing ancestral states using the criterion of parsimony in Mesquite v3.4, respectively.

Results: The HIV-1 CRF02_AG prevalence differed across Spanish autonomous communities we sampled from (p < 0.001). Phylogenetic analysis revealed that 52.7% of the CRF02_AG sequences formed 56 monophyletic clusters, with a range of 2–79 sequences. The CRF02_AG regional dispersal differed across Spain (p = 0.003), as suggested by monophyletic clustering. For the largest monophyletic cluster (subepidemic) (N = 79), 49.4% of the clustered sequences originated from Madrid, while most sequences (51.9%) had been obtained from men having sex with men (MSM). Molecular clock analysis suggested that the origin (t_MRCA) of the CRF02_AG subepidemic was in 2002 (median estimate; 95% Highest Posterior Density-HPD interval: 1999–2004). Additionally, we found significant clustering within the CRF02_AG subepidemic according to the ethnic origin.

Conclusion: CRF02_AG has been introduced as a result of multiple introductions in Spain, following regional dispersal in several cases. We showed that CRF02_AG transmissions were mostly due to regional dispersal in Spain. The hot-spot for the largest CRF02_AG regional subepidemic in Spain was in Madrid associated with MSM transmission risk group. The existence of subepidemics suggest that several spillovers occurred from Madrid to other areas. CRF02_AG sequences from Hispanics were clustered in a separate subclade suggesting no linkage between the local and Hispanic subepidemics.