Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of eliminating cervical cancer through a tailored optimal pathway: a modeling study

The 2nd China Vaccinology Integrated Innovation & Teaching Development Conference: Promoting the construction of vaccinology discipline system

The 2nd China Vaccinology Integrated Innovation & Teaching Development Conference was held in Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 18-19, November 2023. Over 200 participants in the field of Vaccinology gathered together to address challenges and issues relevant to vaccine education and training courses, research, and public health programs in China. The conference themed "Promoting the Integrated and Innovative Development of Vaccinology through Collective Efforts." The conference was organized by the China Association of Vaccine (CAV) and hosted by Vaccinology Education Professional Committee of CAV, and School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University. Other partners included the Medical Virology Branch of the Chinese Medical Association, the editorial committee of the Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine, Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics, and the People's Medical Publishing House. The 1st conference was held in Hangzhou, in October 2020.

Opportunities and challenges for human papillomavirus vaccination in China

Current estimates of the HPV infection rate in China vary by geographic region (9.6-23.6%), with two age peaks in prevalence in women ≤20-25 years of age and 50-60 years of age. HPV-16, 52 and 58 are the most commonly-detected HPV genotypes in the Chinese population. In China, five HPV vaccines are licensed and several others are undergoing clinical trials. Multiple RCTs have shown the efficacy and safety of the bvHPV (Cervarix), Escherichia coli-produced bvHPV (Cecolin), Pichia pastoris-produced bvHPV (Walrinvax), qvHPV (Gardasil) and 9vHPV (Gardasil-9) vaccines in Chinese populations, including two studies showing long-term efficacy (≥8 years) for the bvHPV and qvHPV vaccines. Real-world data from China are scarce. Although modeling studies in China show HPV vaccination is cost-effective, uptake and population coverage are relatively low. Various policies have been implemented to raise awareness and increase vaccine coverage, with the long-term aim of eliminating cervical cancer in China.

Strategies to accelerate the elimination of cervical cancer in British Columbia, Canada: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

To eliminate cervical cancer in Canada by 2040, defined as an annual age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) lower than 4.0 per 100 000 women, the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer (CPAC) identified 3 priorities for action: increasing human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine coverage, implementing HPV-based screening and increasing screening participation, and improving follow-up after abnormal screen results. Our objective was to explore the impact of these priorities on the projected time to elimination of cervical cancer in British Columbia.

METHODS

We used OncoSim-Cervical, a microsimulation model led and supported by CPAC and developed by Statistics Canada that simulates HPV transmission and the natural history of cervical cancer for the Canadian population. We updated model parameters to reflect BC's historical participation rates and program design. We simulated the transition to HPV-based screening and developed scenarios to explore the additional impact of achieving 90% vaccination coverage, 95% screening recruitment, 90% ontime screening, and 95% follow-up compliance. We projected cervical cancer incidence, ASIR, and year of elimination for the population of BC for 2023-2050.

RESULTS

HPV-based screening at current vaccination, participation, and follow-up rates can eliminate cervical cancer by 2034. Increasing on-time screening and follow-up compliance could achieve this target by 2031. Increasing vaccination coverage has a small impact over this time horizon.

INTERPRETATION

With the implementation of HPV-based screening, cervical cancer can be eliminated in BC before 2040. Efforts to increase screening participation and follow-up through this transition could potentially accelerate this timeline, but the transition from cytology- to HPV-based screening is fundamental to achieving this goal.

Projected Time for the Elimination of Cervical Cancer Under Various Intervention Scenarios: Age-Period-Cohort Macrosimulation Study

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization aims for the global elimination of cervical cancer, necessitating modeling studies to forecast long-term outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

This paper introduces a macrosimulation framework using age-period-cohort modeling and population attributable fractions to predict the timeline for eliminating cervical cancer in Taiwan.

METHODS

Data for cervical cancer cases from 1997 to 2016 were obtained from the Taiwan Cancer Registry. Future incidence rates under the current approach and various intervention strategies, such as scaled-up screening (cytology based or human papillomavirus [HPV] based) and HPV vaccination, were projected.

RESULTS

Our projections indicate that Taiwan could eliminate cervical cancer by 2050 with either 70% compliance in cytology-based or HPV-based screening or 90% HPV vaccination coverage. The years projected for elimination are 2047 and 2035 for cytology-based and HPV-based screening, respectively; 2050 for vaccination alone; and 2038 and 2033 for combined screening and vaccination approaches.

CONCLUSIONS

The age-period-cohort macrosimulation framework offers a valuable policy analysis tool for cervical cancer control. Our findings can inform strategies in other high-incidence countries, serving as a benchmark for global efforts to eliminate the disease.

Modeling the Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of a Combined Schoolgirl HPV Vaccination and Cervical Cancer Screening Program in Guangdong Province, China

Low human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine uptake is a key barrier to cervical cancer elimination. We aimed to evaluate the health impact and cost-effectiveness of introducing different HPV vaccines into immunization programs and scaling up the screening program in Guangdong. We used a dynamic compartmental model to estimate the impact of intervention strategies during 2023-2100. We implemented the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in costs per averted disability-adjusted life year (DALY) as an indicator to assess the effectiveness of the intervention. We used an age-standardized incidence of 4 cases per 100,000 women as the threshold for the elimination of cervical cancer. Compared with the status quo, scaling up cervical cancer screening coverage alone would prevent 215,000 (95% CI: 205,000 to 227,000) cervical cancer cases and 49,000 (95% CI: 48,000 to 52,000) deaths during 2023-2100. If the coverage of vaccination reached 90%, domestic two-dose 2vHPV vaccination would be more cost-effective than single-dose and two-dose 9vHPV vaccination. If Guangdong introduced domestic two-dose 2vHPV vaccination at 90% coverage for schoolgirls from 2023 and increased the screening coverage, cervical cancer would be eliminated by 2049 (95% CI 2047 to 2051). Introducing two doses of domestic 2vHPV vaccination for schoolgirls and expanding cervical cancer screening is estimated to be highly cost-effective to accelerate the elimination of cervical cancer in Guangdong.

Head-to-head immunogenicity comparison of an Escherichia coli-produced 9-valent human papillomavirus vaccine and Gardasil 9 in women aged 18-26 years in China: a randomised blinded clinical trial

BACKGROUND

An Escherichia coli-produced human papillomavirus (HPV) 16 and 18 bivalent vaccine (Cecolin) was prequalified by WHO in 2021. This study aimed to compare the immunogenicity of the E coli-produced HPV 9-valent vaccine Cecolin 9 (against HPV 6, 11, 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52, and 58) with Gardasil 9.

METHODS

This was a randomised, single-blind trial conducted in China. Healthy non-pregnant women aged 18-26 years, who were not breastfeeding and with no HPV vaccination history, were enrolled in the Ganyu Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (Lianyungang City, Jiangsu Province, China). Women were stratified by age (18-22 years and 23-26 years) and randomly assigned (1:1) using a permutated block size of eight to receive three doses of Cecolin 9 or Gardasil 9 at day 0, day 45, and month 6. All participants, as well as study personnel without access to the vaccines, were masked. Neutralising antibodies were measured by a triple-colour pseudovirion-based neutralisation assay. The primary outcomes, seroconversion rates and geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) at month 7, were analysed in the per-protocol set for immunogenicity (PPS-I). Non-inferiority was identified for the lower limit of the 95% CI of the GMC ratio (Cecolin 9 vs Gardasil 9) at a margin of 0·5 and a seroconversion rate difference (Cecolin 9-Gardasil 9) at a margin of -5%. This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04782895) and is completed.

FINDINGS

From March 14 to 18, 2021, a total of 553 potential participants were screened, of which 244 received at least one dose of Cecolin 9 and 243 received at least one dose of Gardasil 9. The seroconversion rates for all HPV types in both groups were 100% in the PPS-I, with the values of the lower limits of 95% CIs for seroconversion rate differences ranging between -1·8% and -1·7%. The GMC ratios of five types were higher than 1·0, with the highest ratio, for HPV 58, at 1·65 (95% CI 1·38-1·97), and those of four types were lower than 1·0, with the lowest ratio, for HPV 11, at 0·79 (0·68-0·93). The incidence of adverse reactions in both groups was similar (43% [104/244] vs 47% [115/243]).

INTERPRETATION

Cecolin 9 induced non-inferior HPV type-specific immune responses compared with Gardasil 9 and is a potential candidate to accelerate the elimination of cervical cancer by allowing for global accessibility to 9-valent HPV vaccinations, especially in low-income and middle-income countries.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation, Fujian Provincial Natural Science Foundation, Xiamen Science and Technology Plan Project, Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences of China, and Xiamen Innovax.

ZNF671 methylation test in cervical scrapings for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 and cervical cancer detection

Effective triage of high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV)+ women is warranted to avoid unnecessary referral and overtreatment. Molecular triage tests have recently begun to impact cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 (CIN3) or cervical cancer (CC), termed CIN3+, detection. We find that zinc finger protein 671 methylation (ZNF671m) test has superior performance for CIN3+ detection in all single molecular triage tests, including HPV16/18 genotyping, paired box gene 1 methylation (PAX1m), and ZNF671m, in the training set. Using ZNF671m test instead of Thinprep cytologic test (TCT) as a single triage strategy or as a combined triage strategy with HPV16/18 genotyping has achieved comparable sensitivity but higher specificity for CIN3+ detection among 391 hrHPV+ women in the validation set. Little attention has been paid to the women with hrHPV- status but detected CIN3+. We find that the CIN3+ risk after a negative result could be reduced further by triage using ZNF671m in hrHPV- patients.

Health and economic impact of delaying large-scale HPV vaccination and screening implementation on cervical cancer in China: a modelling study

Background

Current uptake of HPV vaccination and screening in China is far below World Health Organization 2030 targets for cervical cancer elimination. We quantified health and economic losses of delaying large-scale HPV vaccination and screening implementation in China.

Methods

We used a previously validated transmission model to project lifetime health benefits, costs, effectiveness, and timeline for cervical cancer elimination of alternative scenarios, including combining HPV vaccination initiated from 2022 to 2030 with screening in different modalities and coverage increase rates, as well as screening alone. All women living or projected to be born in China during 2022-2100 were considered. We employed a societal perspective.

Findings

Regardless of vaccine type, immediate large-scale vaccination initiated in 2022 and achieving 70% coverage of HPV-based screening in 2030 (no-delay scenario) would be the least costly and most effective. Compared with the no-delay scenario, delaying vaccination by eight years would result in 434,000-543,000 additional cervical cancer cases, 138,000-178,000 deaths, and $2863-4437 million costs, and delay elimination by 9-10 years. Even with immediate vaccination, the gradual scale-up of LBC-based screening to 70% coverage in 2070 would result in 2,530,000-3,060,000 additional cases, 909,000-1,040,000 deaths, and $5098-5714 million costs compared with no-delay scenario, and could not achieve elimination if domestic 2vHPV or 4vHPV vaccines are used (4.09-4.21 cases per 100,000 woman in 2100).

Interpretation

Delaying large-scale HPV vaccination and/or high-performance screening implementation has detrimental consequences for cervical cancer morbidity, mortality, and expenditure. These findings should spur health authorities to expedite large-scale vaccine rollout and improve screening.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-031449 and INV-003174) and CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CIFMS) (2021-I2M-1-004).

Strategies to eliminate cervical cancer in China

Cervical cancer is a widely distributed disease that is preventable and controllable through early intervention. The World Health Organization has identified three key measures, coverage populations and coverage targets to eliminate cervical cancer. The WHO and several countries have conducted model predictions to determine the optimal strategy and timing of cervical cancer elimination. However, specific implementation strategies need to be developed in the context of local conditions. China has a relatively high disease burden of cervical cancer but a low human papillomavirus vaccination rate and cervical cancer screening population coverage. The purpose of this paper is to review interventions and prediction studies for the elimination of cervical cancer and to analyze the problems, challenges and strategies for the elimination of cervical cancer in China.

Cost-effectiveness of the screen-and-treat strategies using HPV test linked to thermal ablation for cervical cancer prevention in China: a modeling study

BACKGROUND

Self-sampling HPV test and thermal ablation are effective tools to increase screening coverage and treatment compliance for accelerating cervical cancer elimination. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of their combined strategies to inform accessible, affordable, and acceptable cervical cancer prevention strategies.

METHODS

We developed a hybrid model to evaluate costs, health outcomes, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) of six screen-and-treat strategies combining HPV testing (self-sampling or physician-sampling), triage modalities (HPV genotyping, colposcopy or none) and thermal ablation, from a societal perspective. A designated initial cohort of 100,000 females born in 2015 was considered. Strategies with an ICER less than the Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) per capita ($10,350) were considered highly cost-effective.

RESULTS

Compared with current strategies in China (physician-HPV with genotype or cytology triage), all screen-and-treat strategies are cost-effective and self-HPV without triage is optimal with the most incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained (220 to 440) in rural and urban China. Each screen-and-treat strategy based on self-collected samples is cost-saving compared with current strategies (-$818,430 to -$3540) whereas more costs are incurred using physician-collected samples compared with current physician-HPV with genotype triage (+$20,840 to +$182,840). For screen-and-treat strategies without triage, more costs (+$9404 to +$380,217) would be invested in the screening and treatment of precancerous lesions rather than the cancer treatment compared with the current screening strategies. Notably, however, more than 81.6% of HPV-positive women would be overtreated. If triaged with HPV 7 types or HPV16/18 genotypes, 79.1% or 67.2% (respectively) of HPV-positive women would be overtreated with fewer cancer cases avoided (19 cases or 69 cases).

CONCLUSIONS

Screen-and-treat strategy using self-sampling HPV test linked to thermal ablation could be the most cost-effective for cervical cancer prevention in China. Additional triage with quality-assured performance could reduce overtreatment and remains highly cost-effective compared with current strategies.

Optimal allocation strategies for HPV vaccination introduction and expansion in China accommodated to different supply and dose schedule scenarios: A modelling study

BACKGROUND

A key barrier to cervical cancer elimination in China is low human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine uptake, which is limited by supply constraints, high prices, and restriction to two/three-dose schedule. We explored optimal vaccination strategies for maximizing health and economic benefits accommodated to different supply and dose schedules.

METHODS

We evaluated different HPV vaccine strategies under 4 scenarios with different assumptions about vaccine availability and dose schedules. Each strategy involved different vaccine types, target ages, and modes of delivery. We used a previously validated transmission model to assess the health impact (cervical cancer cases averted), efficiency (number of doses needed to be given to prevent one case of cervical cancer [NND]), and value for money (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER] and return on investment [ROI]) of different strategies in Chinese females over a 100-year time horizon. All costs are expressed in 2021 dollars. We adopted a societal perspective and discounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs and benefits by 3% annually for cost-effectiveness analysis and ROI calculation.

FINDINGS

In a supply-constrained and on-label use scenario, compared with no vaccination, two-dose routine vaccination of 14-year-olds would be the optimal, cost-saving strategy for a future national program (NNDs: 150-220, net cost saving: $15 164 million-$22 034 million, ROIs: 7-14, depending on vaccine type). If the one-dose schedule recommended by WHO is permitted in China, then reallocating the second dose from the routine cohorts to add a catch-up vaccination at 20-year-olds would be the most efficient strategy (NNDs: 73-107), and would be cost-saving compared with routine one-dose vaccination only (net cost saving: $4127 million-$6035 million, ROIs: 19-37). When supply constraints are lifted, scaling up vaccination in older females to 26 years could further expand the health benefits and still be cost-saving compared to maintaining the optimal vaccination strategy in the supply-constrained context.

INTERPRETATION

Our study provides timely evidence for the current and future HPV vaccination strategy planning in China, and may also be of value to other countries with supply and dose restrictions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CIFMS).

Analysis of the disease burden trend of malignant tumors of the female reproductive system in China from 2006 to 2020

BACKGROUND

Malignant tumors of reproductive system seriously threaten women's life and health. We analyzed the changes in mortality and disease burden of cervical cancer, uterine cancer and ovarian cancer in China from 2006 to 2020 to provide a basis for formulating scientific prevention and control measures.

METHODS

Annual death data for cervical cancer, uterine cancer and ovarian cancer were collected from the Chinese Cause of Death Surveillance. The crude mortality rate (CMR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), annual percentage change (APC), and average APC (AAPC) were applied to analyze the trend of mortality. Loss of life expectancy (LLE) and years of life lost (YLL) were used to assess disease burden.

RESULTS

From 2006 to 2020, there was no significant change in the total ASMR and standardized YLL rates of malignant tumors of the reproductive system, leading to an average LLE of 0.18 years. The YLL rate was the highest in the 55-59 age group. The mortality rate and disease burden of the three types of cancer have changed from uterine cancer higher than cervical cancer and ovarian cancer in 2006 to cervical cancer higher than ovarian cancer and uterine cancer in 2020. The ASMR and standardized YLL rate of uterine cancer showed a downward trend, and AAPC was - 5.21% (- 9.31% ~  - 0.91%) and - 6.07% (- 9.45% ~  - 2.58%), respectively. The mortality rates of cervical cancer and ovarian cancer remain high.

CONCLUSION

The mortality and disease burden of malignant tumors of the female reproductive system in China are still at a high level. It is necessary to improve screening and prevention strategies as soon as possible, improve the techniques of diagnosis and treatment, and take adequate measures to protect women's life and health.

Immunogenicity and safety of two novel human papillomavirus 4- and 9-valent vaccines in Chinese women aged 20-45 years: A randomized, blinded, controlled with Gardasil (type 6/11/16/18), phase III non-inferiority clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infections were the main cause of anogenital cancers and warts. HPV 6/11/16/18 vaccines provide protection against the high-risk types of HPV responsible for 70% of cervical cancers and 90% of genital warts. This randomized, blinded, non-inferiority phase III trial was to determine whether immunogenicity and tolerability would be non-inferior among women after receiving two novel 4- and 9-valent HPV vaccines (4vHPV, HPV 6/11/16/18; 9vHPV, HPV 6/11/16/18/31/33/45/52/58) compared with those receiving Gardasil 4 (4-valent).

METHODS

1680 females between 20 and 45 years were randomized in a 2:1:1 ratio to 20-26, 27-35, or 36-45 y groups. Subjects then equally assigned to receive 4vHPV, 9vHPV or Gardasil 4 (control) vaccine at months 0, 2, and 6. End points included non-inferiority of HPV-6/11/16/18 antibodies for 4vHPV versus control, and 9vHPV versus control and safety. The immunogenicity non-inferiority was pre-defined as the lower bound of 95% confidence interval (CI) of seroconversion rate (SCR) difference > -10% and the lower bound of 95% CI of geometric mean antibody titer (GMT) ratio > 0.5.

RESULTS

Among the three vaccine groups, more than 99% of the participants seroconverted to all 4 HPV types. The pre-specified statistical non-inferiority criterion for the immunogenicity hypothesis was met: all the lower bounds of 95% CIs on SCR differences exceeded -10% for each vaccine HPV type and the corresponding lower bounds of 95% CIs for GMT ratios > 0.5. Across vaccination groups, the most common vaccination reaction were injection-site adverse events (AEs), including pain, swelling, and redness. General and serious AEs were similar in the three groups. There were no deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated that the novel 4- and 9-valent HPV vaccination was highly immunogenic and generally well tolerated, both of which were non-inferior to Gardasil 4 in immunogenicity and safety.

Rapid elimination of cervical cancer while maintaining the harms and benefits ratio of cervical cancer screening: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and intensifying screening expedite cervical cancer (CC) elimination, yet also deteriorate the balance between harms and benefits of screening. We aimed to find screening strategies that eliminate CC rapidly but maintain an acceptable harms-benefits ratio of screening.

METHODS

Two microsimulation models (STDSIM and MISCAN) were applied to simulate HPV transmission and CC screening for the Dutch female population between 2022 and 2100. We estimated the CC elimination year and harms-benefits ratios of screening for 228 unique scenarios varying in vaccination (coverage and vaccine type) and screening (coverage and number of lifetime invitations in vaccinated cohorts). The acceptable harms-benefits ratio was defined as the number of women needed to refer (NNR) to prevent one CC death under the current programme for unvaccinated cohorts (82.17).

RESULTS

Under current vaccination conditions (bivalent vaccine, 55% coverage in girls, 27.5% coverage in boys), maintaining current screening conditions is projected to eliminate CC by 2042, but increases the present NNR with 41%. Reducing the number of lifetime screens from presently five to three and increasing screening coverage (61% to 70%) would prevent an increase in harms and only delay elimination by 1 year. Scaling vaccination coverage to 90% in boys and girls with the nonavalent vaccine is estimated to eliminate CC by 2040 under current screening conditions, but exceeds the acceptable NNR with 23%. Here, changing from five to two lifetime screens would keep the NNR acceptable without delaying CC elimination.

CONCLUSIONS

De-intensifying CC screening in vaccinated cohorts leads to little or no delay in CC elimination while it substantially reduces the harms of screening. Therefore, de-intensifying CC screening in vaccinated cohorts should be considered to ensure acceptable harms-benefits ratios on the road to CC elimination.

Willingness to pay for HPV vaccine among female health care workers in a Chinese nationwide survey

Background

Payment methods for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine could substantially influence vaccination behavior. In China, HPV vaccination uptake remains currently low. This study aims to determine willingness to pay (WTP) for HPV vaccines among Chinese female health care workers under different payment scenarios.

Methods

This is a nationwide online survey recruiting female health care workers aged 18–45 years from 31 provinces throughout China. We collected the respondents’ vaccination status of HPV vaccines and their sociodemographics. Two WTPs were defined and estimated in the study. A general WTP for HPV vaccination was determined using the contingent valuation method with double dichotomous choice bidding. A WTP out-of-pocket was estimated for each HPV vaccine under two scenarios, including partial coverage by governmental subsidy or partial incorporation in basic medical insurance. Accordingly, a multivariable linear regression model was employed to determine the association between sociodemographis and general WTP. Then the maximum WTP out-of-pocket was compared among the respondents’ attitude shift towards HPV vaccination, payment scenarios, and levels of vaccine attributes, using non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis test.

Results

A total of 15,969 respondents were included in the study. The median general WTP was 2000 CNY (interquartile range, 1000–3200 CNY), positively associated with younger age, unmarried status, higher monthly income, fewer children, more positive vaccination behavior, working in tertiary hospital, higher local GDP and HDI (each P < 0.05). Moreover, the median WTP out-of-pocket was 1250 CNY (540–2000 CNY). It was significantly higher for vaccines partly covered by governmental subsidy (median, 1250 CNY; interquartile range, 560–2000 CNY), imported vaccines (1260 CNY; 630–1960 CNY), and 9-valent vaccines (1400 CNY; 750–2240 CNY) (each P < 0.001). Additionally, majority of respondents did not change their attitude towards HPV vaccination between two payment scenarios; those remaining with more expensive HPV vaccines (51.1%) had higher WTP out-of-pocket (1400 CNY; 560–2250 CNY) than those with cheaper vaccines (39.0%) (1120 CNY; 490–1960 CNY) (P < 0.001).

Conclusion

Chinese female health care workers have high WTP for HPV vaccines. A direct public funding for HPV vaccination is more preferable. Our findings may facilitate the adjustment of HPV vaccination strategy and payment mechanism in China.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12913-022-08716-6.

A comparison of behavioural models explaining cervical cancer screening uptake

BACKGROUND

Cervical cancer represents a very high burden of disease, especially in Low- and Middle-income economies. Screening is a recommended prevention method in resource-poor settings. Cervical cancer screening (CCS) uptake is influenced by various psycho-social factors, most of which are included in behavioural models. Unlike demographic characteristics, these factors are modifiable. While few studies have compared these models in terms of their capacity to predict health behaviour, this study considers three health behaviour theories to assess and compare the predictors of CCS behaviour and intention.

METHODS

A survey was conducted among 607 sexually active women in the South Indian state of Karnataka. Data was collected regarding socio-demographic factors, health literacy, knowledge on CCS, and the socio-cognitive factors related to CCS that are represented in the Health Belief Model (HBM), Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) and Theory of Care-Seeking Behaviour (TCSB). Logistic regression analyses tested to what extent each of the theoretical models explained cervical cancer screening (CCS) intention and regular screening behaviour, comparing the variance explained by each of the models.

RESULTS

CCS intention was best explained by the TPB, followed by the HBM. Of the constructs included in these models, positive attitude towards the screening procedure and perceived benefits contributed most significantly to screening intention, followed by fear, anxiety or embarrassment related to the disease or screening procedure, and context specific barriers.

CONCLUSION

Health behavioural models such as the TPB and HBM can help to identify the main socio-cognitive factors explaining the intention of women to participate in CCS. As such, they can inform interventions to target specific determinants of screening intention and behaviour, and enhance their effectiveness by addressing women's screening attitude, perceived benefits, and emotions as well as reducing context specific barriers to screening.

Cancer statistics in China and United States, 2022: profiles, trends, and determinants

BACKGROUND

The cancer burden in the United States of America (USA) has decreased gradually. However, China is experiencing a transition in its cancer profiles, with greater incidence of cancers that were previously more common in the USA. This study compared the latest cancer profiles, trends, and determinants between China and USA.

METHODS

This was a comparative study using open-source data. Cancer cases and deaths in 2022 were calculated using cancer estimates from GLOBOCAN 2020 and population estimates from the United Nations. Trends in cancer incidence and mortality rates in the USA used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program and National Center for Health Statistics. Chinese data were obtained from cancer registry reports. Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 and a decomposition method were used to express cancer deaths as the product of four determinant factors.

RESULTS

In 2022, there will be approximately 4,820,000 and 2,370,000 new cancer cases, and 3,210,000 and 640,000 cancer deaths in China and the USA, respectively. The most common cancers are lung cancer in China and breast cancer in the USA, and lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in both. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for lung cancer and colorectal cancer in the USA have decreased significantly recently, but rates of liver cancer have increased slightly. Rates of stomach, liver, and esophageal cancer decreased gradually in China, but rates have increased for colorectal cancer in the whole population, prostate cancer in men, and other seven cancer types in women. Increases in adult population size and population aging were major determinants for incremental cancer deaths, and case-fatality rates contributed to reduced cancer deaths in both countries.

CONCLUSIONS

The decreasing cancer burden in liver, stomach, and esophagus, and increasing burden in lung, colorectum, breast, and prostate, mean that cancer profiles in China and the USA are converging. Population aging is a growing determinant of incremental cancer burden. Progress in cancer prevention and care in the USA, and measures to actively respond to population aging, may help China to reduce the cancer burden.

The road to cervical cancer elimination in Malaysia: Evaluation of the impact and cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus screening with self-collection and digital registry support

The WHO has launched a global strategy to eliminate cervical cancer through the scale‐up of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, cervical screening, and cervical cancer treatment. Malaysia has achieved high‐coverage HPV vaccination since 2010, but coverage of the existing cytology‐based program remains low. Pilot studies found HPV self‐sampling was acceptable and effective, with high follow‐up rates when a digital registry was used, and recently the Malaysian Government announced plans for a national HPV‐based screening program. We therefore evaluated the impact of primary HPV screening with self‐collection in Malaysia in the context of Malaysia's existing vaccination program. We used the “Policy1‐Cervix” modeling platform to assess health outcomes, cost‐effectiveness, resource use and cervical cancer elimination timing (the year when cervical cancer rates reach four cases per 100 000 women) of implementing primary HPV testing with self‐collection, assuming 70% routine‐screening coverage could be achieved. Based on available data, we assumed that compliance with follow‐up was 90% when a digital registry was used, but that compliance with follow‐up would be 50‐75% without the use of a digital registry. We found that the current vaccination program would prevent 27 000 to 32 200 cervical cancer cases and 11 700 to 14 000 deaths by 2070. HPV testing with a digital registry was cost‐effective (CER = $US 6953‐7549 < $US 11 373[<1×GDP per capita]) and could prevent an additional 15 900 to 17 800 cases and 9700 to 10 600 deaths by 2070, expediting national elimination by 11 to 20 years, to 2055 to 2059. If HPV screening were implemented without a digital registry, there would be 1800 to 4900 fewer deaths averted by 2070 and the program would be less cost‐effective. These results underline the importance of HPV testing as a key elimination pillar in Malaysia.