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Mudd AL, Bal M, Verra SE, Poelman MP, de Wit J, Kamphuis CBM. The current state of complex systems research on socioeconomic inequalities in health and health behavior-a systematic scoping review. Int J Behav Nutr Phys Act 2024; 21:13. [PMID: 38317165 PMCID: PMC10845451 DOI: 10.1186/s12966-024-01562-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2023] [Accepted: 01/14/2024] [Indexed: 02/07/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Interest in applying a complex systems approach to understanding socioeconomic inequalities in health is growing, but an overview of existing research on this topic is lacking. In this systematic scoping review, we summarize the current state of the literature, identify shared drivers of multiple health and health behavior outcomes, and highlight areas ripe for future research. METHODS SCOPUS, Web of Science, and PubMed databases were searched in April 2023 for peer-reviewed, English-language studies in high-income OECD countries containing a conceptual systems model or simulation model of socioeconomic inequalities in health or health behavior in the adult general population. Two independent reviewers screened abstracts and full texts. Data on study aim, type of model, all model elements, and all relationships were extracted. Model elements were categorized based on the Commission on Social Determinants of Health framework, and relationships between grouped elements were visualized in a summary conceptual systems map. RESULTS A total of 42 publications were included; 18 only contained a simulation model, 20 only contained a conceptual model, and 4 contained both types of models. General health outcomes (e.g., health status, well-being) were modeled more often than specific outcomes like obesity. Dietary behavior and physical activity were by far the most commonly modeled health behaviors. Intermediary determinants of health (e.g., material circumstances, social cohesion) were included in nearly all models, whereas structural determinants (e.g., policies, societal values) were included in about a third of models. Using the summary conceptual systems map, we identified 15 shared drivers of socioeconomic inequalities in multiple health and health behavior outcomes. CONCLUSIONS The interconnectedness of socioeconomic position, multiple health and health behavior outcomes, and determinants of socioeconomic inequalities in health is clear from this review. Factors central to the complex system as it is currently understood in the literature (e.g., financial strain) may be both efficient and effective policy levers, and factors less well represented in the literature (e.g., sleep, structural determinants) may warrant more research. Our systematic, comprehensive synthesis of the literature may serve as a basis for, among other things, a complex systems framework for socioeconomic inequalities in health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea L Mudd
- Department of Interdisciplinary Social Science- Public Health, Utrecht University, PO Box 80140, 3508 TC, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
| | - Michèlle Bal
- Department of Interdisciplinary Social Science- Public Health, Utrecht University, PO Box 80140, 3508 TC, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Sanne E Verra
- Department of Interdisciplinary Social Science- Public Health, Utrecht University, PO Box 80140, 3508 TC, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Maartje P Poelman
- Chair Group Consumption and Healthy Lifestyles, Wageningen University & Research, Hollandseweg 1, 6706 KN, Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - John de Wit
- Department of Interdisciplinary Social Science- Public Health, Utrecht University, PO Box 80140, 3508 TC, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Carlijn B M Kamphuis
- Department of Interdisciplinary Social Science- Public Health, Utrecht University, PO Box 80140, 3508 TC, Utrecht, The Netherlands
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Rock D, Cross S, Rock L. Incorporating systems modelling into mental health system planning. Lancet Psychiatry 2024; 11:85-86. [PMID: 38245020 DOI: 10.1016/s2215-0366(23)00433-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2023] [Revised: 12/18/2023] [Accepted: 12/18/2023] [Indexed: 01/22/2024]
Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Rock
- WA Primary Health Alliance, Perth, WA, Australia; Department of Psychiatry, Medical School, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA 6009, Australia; Faculty of Health, University of Canberra, Canberra, ACT, Australia.
| | - Shane Cross
- Orygen, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Centre for Youth Mental Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Lydia Rock
- Department of Internal Medicine, Medical School, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA 6009, Australia
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Crosland P, Ho N, Hosseini SH, Vacher C, Skinner A, Natsky AN, Rosenberg S, Hasudungan R, Huntley S, Song YJC, Lee GY, Marshall DA, Occhipinti JA, Hickie IB. Cost-effectiveness of system-level mental health strategies for young people in the Australian Capital Territory: a dynamic simulation modelling study. Lancet Psychiatry 2024; 11:123-133. [PMID: 38245017 DOI: 10.1016/s2215-0366(23)00396-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/19/2023] [Revised: 11/15/2023] [Accepted: 11/15/2023] [Indexed: 01/22/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Regional mental health planning is a key challenge for decision makers because mental health care is a complex, dynamic system. Economic evaluation using a system dynamics modelling approach presents an opportunity for more sophisticated planning and important evidence on the value of alternative investments. We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of eight systems-based interventions targeted at improving the mental health and wellbeing of children, adolescents, and young adults in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). METHODS We assessed eight interventions for children and young people (aged ≤25 years) with low, moderate, and high-to-very-high psychological distress: technology-enabled integrated care, emergency department-based suicide prevention, crisis response service, family education programme, online parenting programme, school-based suicide prevention programme, trauma service for youths, and multicultural-informed care. We developed a system dynamics model for the ACT through a participatory process and calibrated the model with historical data, including population demographics, the prevalence of psychological distress, and mental health services provision. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios compared with business as usual for cost (AU$) per: quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), suicide death avoided, self-harm related hospital admissions avoided, and mental health-related emergency department presentation, using a 10-year time horizon for health-care and societal perspectives. We investigated uncertainty through probabilistic sensitivity analysis and deterministic sensitivity analysis, including using a 30-year timeframe. FINDINGS From a societal perspective, increased investment in technology-enabled integrated care, family education, an online parenting programme, and multicultural-informed care were expected to improve health outcomes (incremental QALYs 4517 [95% UI -3135 to 14 507] for technology-enabled integrated care; 339 [91 to 661] for family education; 724 [114 to 1149] for the online parenting programme; and 137 [88 to 194] for multicultural-informed care) and reduce costs ($-91·4 million [-382·7 to 100·7]; $-12·8 million [-21·0 to -6·6]; $-3·6 million [-6·3 to 0·2]; and $-3·1 million [-4·5 to -1·8], respectively) compared with business as usual using a 10-year time horizon. The incremental net monetary benefit for the societal perspective for these four interventions was $452 million (-351 to 1555), $40 million (14 to 74), $61 million (9 to 98), and $14 million (9 to 20), respectively, compared with business as usual, when QALYs were monetised using a willingness to pay of $79 930 per QALY. Synergistic effects are anticipated if these interventions were to be implemented concurrently. The univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses indicated a high level of certainty in the results. Although emergency department-based suicide prevention and school-based suicide prevention were not cost effective in the base case (41 QALYs [0 to 48], incremental cost $4·1 million [1·2 to 8·2] for emergency department-based suicide prevention; -234 QALYs [-764 to 12], incremental cost $90·3 million [72·2 to 111·0] for school-based suicide prevention) compared with business as usual, there were scenarios for which these interventions could be considered cost effective. A dedicated trauma service for young people (9 QALYs gained [4 to 16], incremental cost $8·3 million [6·8 to 10·0]) and a crisis response service (-11 QALYs gained [-12 to -10], incremental cost $7·8 million [5·1 to 11·0]) were unlikely to be cost effective in terms of QALYs. INTERPRETATION Synergistic effects were identified, supporting the combined implementation of technology-enabled integrated care, family education, an online parenting programme, and multicultural-informed care. Synergistic effects, emergent outcomes in the form of unintended consequences, the capability to account for service capacity constraints, and ease of use by stakeholders are unique attributes of a system dynamics modelling approach to economic evaluation. FUNDING BHP Foundation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paul Crosland
- Youth Mental Health and Technology, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Translational Research Collective, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
| | - Nicholas Ho
- Youth Mental Health and Technology, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Translational Research Collective, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Seyed Hossein Hosseini
- Youth Mental Health and Technology, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Translational Research Collective, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Catherine Vacher
- Youth Mental Health and Technology, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Translational Research Collective, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Adam Skinner
- Youth Mental Health and Technology, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Translational Research Collective, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Andrea N Natsky
- Youth Mental Health and Technology, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Translational Research Collective, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Sebastian Rosenberg
- Youth Mental Health and Technology, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Translational Research Collective, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Raphael Hasudungan
- Youth Mental Health and Technology, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Translational Research Collective, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Sam Huntley
- Youth Mental Health and Technology, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Translational Research Collective, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Yun Ju Christine Song
- Youth Mental Health and Technology, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Translational Research Collective, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Grace Yeeun Lee
- Youth Mental Health and Technology, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Translational Research Collective, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Deborah A Marshall
- Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary and Alberta Children's Hospital Research Institute, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - Jo-An Occhipinti
- Youth Mental Health and Technology, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Translational Research Collective, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Ian B Hickie
- Youth Mental Health and Technology, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Translational Research Collective, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
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Whiteford H, Bagheri N, Diminic S, Enticott J, Gao CX, Hamilton M, Hickie IB, Khanh-Dao Le L, Lee YY, Long KM, McGorry P, Meadows G, Mihalopoulos C, Occhipinti JA, Rock D, Rosenberg S, Salvador-Carulla L, Skinner A. Mental health systems modelling for evidence-informed service reform in Australia. Aust N Z J Psychiatry 2023; 57:1417-1427. [PMID: 37183347 DOI: 10.1177/00048674231172113] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
Australia's Fifth National Mental Health Plan required governments to report, not only on the progress of changes to mental health service delivery, but to also plan for services that should be provided. Future population demand for treatment and care is challenging to predict and one solution involves modelling the uncertain demands on the system. Modelling can help decision-makers understand likely future changes in mental health service demand and more intelligently choose appropriate responses. It can also support greater scrutiny, accountability and transparency of these processes. Australia has an emerging national capacity for systems modelling in mental health which can enhance the next phase of mental health reform. This paper introduces concepts useful for understanding mental health modelling and identifies where modelling approaches can support health service planners to make evidence-informed decisions regarding planning and investment for the Australian population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Harvey Whiteford
- Queensland Centre for Mental Health Research, Wacol, QLD, Australia
- School of Public Health, The University of Queensland, Herston, QLD, Australia
| | - Nasser Bagheri
- Mental Health Policy Unit, Health Research Institute, University of Canberra
| | - Sandra Diminic
- Queensland Centre for Mental Health Research, Wacol, QLD, Australia
- School of Public Health, The University of Queensland, Herston, QLD, Australia
| | - Joanne Enticott
- Southern Synergy, Monash Centre of Health Research & Implementation, Monash University, Dandenong, VIC, Australia
| | - Caroline X Gao
- Centre for Youth Mental Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
- Orygen, Parkville, VIC, Australia
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University
| | - Matthew Hamilton
- Centre for Youth Mental Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
- Orygen, Parkville, VIC, Australia
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University
| | - Ian B Hickie
- Brain and Mind Centre, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW, Australia
| | - Long Khanh-Dao Le
- Health Economics Group, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Yong Yi Lee
- Health Economics Group, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Katrina M Long
- Department of Occupational Therapy, School of Primary and Allied Health Care, Monash University, Frankston, VIC, Australia
| | - Patrick McGorry
- Centre for Youth Mental Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
- Orygen, Parkville, VIC, Australia
| | - Graham Meadows
- Southern Synergy, Department of Psychiatry, School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Dandenong, VIC, Australia
| | - Cathrine Mihalopoulos
- Health Economics Group, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Jo-An Occhipinti
- Systems Modelling, Simulation & Data Science, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney
| | - Daniel Rock
- WA Primary Health Alliance, Perth, Australia
- Discipline of Psychiatry, Medical School University of Western Australia
- Faculty of Health, University of Canberra
| | - Sebastian Rosenberg
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Luis Salvador-Carulla
- Health Research Institute, Faculty of Health, University of Canberra, Canberra, ACT, Australia
| | - Adam Skinner
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
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Decker H, Wendel M. Applications of Participatory System Dynamics Methods to Public Health: A Systematic Review. FAMILY & COMMUNITY HEALTH 2023; 46:S6-S21. [PMID: 37696012 DOI: 10.1097/fch.0000000000000369] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/13/2023]
Abstract
System dynamics, and specifically qualitative participatory applications of system dynamics, have potential to benefit public health research, scholarship, and practice. A systematic review was conducted to examine the existing applications of participatory system dynamics (PSD) to public health research. Three databases were searched using unique search terms related to PSD and methodological applications in public health research. A total of 57 unique articles met inclusion criteria and were included for review. The studies included for review were conducted globally and represent a wide breadth of public health issues. The review identified several advantages to adopting PSD methods in public health scholarship and practice. The PSD methods provide innovative frameworks for conceptualizing complex and nuanced public health problems. The participatory nature of PSD allows for increased community engagement and empowerment to address public health problems, as well as to mitigate existing power dynamics between research institutions and marginalized communities that are disproportionately impacted by social and health inequities. Finally, causal loop diagrams developed using PSD methods have unique potential to convey complex concepts to policy makers and interventionists. This systematic review reports evidence for PSD's potential to advance equity in public health research and practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hallie Decker
- Health Equity Innovation Hub, University of Louisville, Louisville, Kentucky (Ms Decker); and Health Promotion & Behavioral Sciences, School of Public Health and Information Sciences, and Health Equity Innovation Hub, University of Louisville, Louisville, Kentucky (Dr Wendel)
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Iorfino F, McHugh C, Richards M, Skinner A, Prodan A, Occhipinti JA, Song YJC, Chiu S, Judkins S, Scott E, Hickie IB. Patterns of emergency department presentations for a youth mental health cohort: data-linkage cohort study. BJPsych Open 2023; 9:e170. [PMID: 37706294 PMCID: PMC10594097 DOI: 10.1192/bjo.2023.521] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2022] [Revised: 05/23/2023] [Accepted: 06/09/2023] [Indexed: 09/15/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Primary youth mental health services in Australia have increased access to care for young people, yet the longer-term outcomes and utilisation of other health services among these populations is unclear. AIMS To describe the emergency department presentation patterns of a help-seeking youth mental health cohort. METHOD Data linkage was performed to extract Emergency Department Data Collection registry data (i.e. emergency department presentations, pattern of re-presentations) for a transdiagnostic cohort of 7024 youths (aged 12-30 years) who presented to mental health services. Outcome measures were pattern of presentations and reason for presentations (i.e. mental illness; suicidal behaviours and self-harm; alcohol and substance use; accident and injury; physical illness; and other). RESULTS During the follow-up period, 5372 (76.5%) had at least one emergency department presentation. The presentation rate was lower for males (IRR = 0.87, 95% CI 0.86-0.89) and highest among those aged 18 to 24 (IRR = 1.117, 95% CI 1.086-1.148). Almost one-third (31.12%) had an emergency department presentation that was directly associated with mental illness or substance use, and the most common reasons for presentation were for physical illness and accident or injury. Index visits for mental illness or substance use were associated with a higher rate of re-presentation. CONCLUSIONS Most young people presenting to primary mental health services also utilised emergency services. The preventable and repeated nature of many presentations suggests that reducing the ongoing secondary risks of mental disorders (i.e. substance misuse, suicidality, physical illness) could substantially improve the mental and physical health outcomes of young people.
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Affiliation(s)
- Frank Iorfino
- Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Catherine McHugh
- Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Matthew Richards
- Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Adam Skinner
- Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Ante Prodan
- Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; Translational Health Research Institute, Western Sydney University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; and School of Computer, Data and Mathematical Sciences, Western Sydney University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Jo-an Occhipinti
- Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; and Computer Simulation & Advanced Research Technologies, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | | | - Simon Chiu
- Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | | | - Elizabeth Scott
- Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; and St Vincent's Private Hospital, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Ian B. Hickie
- Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
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Michail M, Robinson J, Witt K, Occhipinti JA, Skinner A, Lamblin M, Veresova M, Kartal D, Waring J. Which programmes and policies across health and community settings will generate the most significant impacts for youth suicide prevention in Australia and the UK? Protocol for a systems modelling and simulation study. BMJ Open 2023; 13:e071111. [PMID: 37580093 PMCID: PMC10432673 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-071111] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2022] [Accepted: 07/05/2023] [Indexed: 08/16/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Suicide is a leading cause of mortality among young people aged 15-24 globally. Despite the deployment of comprehensive suicide prevention strategies, we still do not know which interventions, for which groups of young people, for how long and with what intensity could generate the most significant reductions in suicide rates. System dynamics modelling has the potential to address these gaps. SEYMOUR (System Dynamics Modelling for Suicide Prevention) will develop and evaluate a system dynamics model that will indicate which suicide prevention interventions could generate the most significant reductions in rates of suicide and attempted suicide among young people aged 12-25 in Australia and the UK. METHODS AND ANALYSIS A comparative case study design, applying participatory system dynamics modelling in North-West Melbourne (Australia) and Birmingham (UK). A computer simulation model of mental health service pathways and suicidal behaviour among young people in North-West Melbourne will be developed through three workshops with expert stakeholder groups (young people with lived experience, carers, clinicians, policy makers, commissioners). The model will be calibrated and validated using national, state and local datasets (inputs). The simulation model will test a series of interventions identified in the workshops for inclusion. Primary model outputs include suicide deaths, self-harm hospitalisations and self-harm presentations to emergency departments. An implementation strategy for the sustainable embedding of promising suicide prevention interventions will be developed. This will be followed by model customisation, re-parameterisation, and validation in Birmingham and adaptation of the implementation strategy. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION The project has received approval from the University of Melbourne Human Research Ethics Committee (2022-22885-25971-4), the University of Birmingham Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics Ethics Review Committee (ERN_21-02385) and the UK HRA (22/HRA/3826). SEYMOUR's dissemination strategy includes open-access academic publications, conference presentations, accessible findings coproduced with young people, e-briefs to policy makers, webinars for service providers and commissioners.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria Michail
- School of Psychology, Institute for Mental Health, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Jo Robinson
- Orygen The National Centre of Excellence in Youth Mental Health, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
- Centre for Youth Mental Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Katrina Witt
- Orygen The National Centre of Excellence in Youth Mental Health, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
- Centre for Youth Mental Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Jo-An Occhipinti
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Computer Simulation & Advanced Research Technologies (CSART), Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Adam Skinner
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Michelle Lamblin
- Orygen The National Centre of Excellence in Youth Mental Health, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
- Centre for Youth Mental Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Maria Veresova
- Orygen The National Centre of Excellence in Youth Mental Health, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
- Centre for Youth Mental Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Dzenana Kartal
- Orygen The National Centre of Excellence in Youth Mental Health, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
- Centre for Youth Mental Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Justin Waring
- School of Social Policy, Health Services Management Centre, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
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Skinner A, Osgood ND, Occhipinti JA, Song YJC, Hickie IB. Unemployment and underemployment are causes of suicide. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2023; 9:eadg3758. [PMID: 37436996 PMCID: PMC10337900 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adg3758] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2022] [Accepted: 06/08/2023] [Indexed: 07/14/2023]
Abstract
Epidemiological studies indicate that labor underutilization and suicide are associated, yet it remains unclear whether this association is causal. We applied convergent cross mapping to test for causal effects of unemployment and underemployment on suicidal behavior, using monthly data on labor underutilization and suicide rates in Australia for the period 2004-2016. Our analyses provide evidence that rates of unemployment and underemployment were significant drivers of suicide mortality in Australia over the 13-year study period. Predictive modeling indicates that 9.5% of the ~32,000 suicides reported between 2004 and 2016 resulted directly from labor underutilization, including 1575 suicides attributable to unemployment and 1496 suicides attributable to underemployment. We conclude that economic policies prioritizing full employment should be considered integral to any comprehensive national suicide prevention strategy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adam Skinner
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
- Mental Wealth Initiative, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
| | - Nathaniel D. Osgood
- Department of Computer Science, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada
- Computer Simulation and Advanced Research Technologies (CSART), Sydney, Australia
| | - Jo-An Occhipinti
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
- Mental Wealth Initiative, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
- Computer Simulation and Advanced Research Technologies (CSART), Sydney, Australia
| | - Yun Ju Christine Song
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
- Mental Wealth Initiative, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
| | - Ian B. Hickie
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
- Mental Wealth Initiative, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
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Schuerkamp R, Liang L, Rice KL, Giabbanelli PJ. Simulation Models for Suicide Prevention: A Survey of the State-of-the-Art. COMPUTERS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023; 12:10.3390/computers12070132. [PMID: 37869477 PMCID: PMC10588059 DOI: 10.3390/computers12070132] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/24/2023]
Abstract
Suicide is a leading cause of death and a global public health problem, representing more than one in every 100 deaths in 2019. Modeling and Simulation (M&S) is widely used to address public health problems, and numerous simulation models have investigated the complex, dependent, and dynamic risk factors contributing to suicide. However, no review has been dedicated to these models, which prevents modelers from effectively learning from each other and raises the risk of redundant efforts. To guide the development of future models, in this paper we perform the first scoping review of simulation models for suicide prevention. Examining ten articles, we focus on three practical questions. First, which interventions are supported by previous models? We found that four groups of models collectively support 53 interventions. We examined these interventions through the lens of global recommendations for suicide prevention, highlighting future areas for model development. Second, what are the obstacles preventing model application? We noted the absence of cost effectiveness in all models reviewed, meaning that certain simulated interventions may be infeasible. Moreover, we found that most models do not account for different effects of suicide prevention interventions across demographic groups. Third, how much confidence can we place in the models? We evaluated models according to four best practices for simulation, leading to nuanced findings that, despite their current limitations, the current simulation models are powerful tools for understanding the complexity of suicide and evaluating suicide prevention interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ryan Schuerkamp
- Department of Computer Science & Software Engineering, Miami University, Oxford, OH 45056, USA
| | - Luke Liang
- Department of Computer Science & Software Engineering, Miami University, Oxford, OH 45056, USA
| | - Ketra L. Rice
- National Center for Injury Prevention and Control, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, GA 30341, USA
| | - Philippe J. Giabbanelli
- Department of Computer Science & Software Engineering, Miami University, Oxford, OH 45056, USA
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Skinner A, Occhipinti JA, Prodan A, Song YJC, Hickie IB. Bi-stability and critical transitions in mental health care systems: a model-based analysis. Int J Ment Health Syst 2023; 17:5. [PMID: 36959667 PMCID: PMC10037813 DOI: 10.1186/s13033-023-00573-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/26/2021] [Accepted: 03/07/2023] [Indexed: 03/25/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Delayed initiation and early discontinuation of treatment due to limited availability and accessibility of services may often result in people with mild or moderate mental disorders developing more severe disorders, leading to an increase in demand for specialised care that would be expected to further restrict service availability and accessibility (due to increased waiting times, higher out-of-pocket costs, etc.). METHODS We developed a simple system dynamics model of the interaction of specialised services capacity and disease progression to examine the impact of service availability and accessibility on the effectiveness and efficiency of mental health care systems. RESULTS Model analysis indicates that, under certain conditions, increasing services capacity can precipitate an abrupt, step-like transition from a state of persistently high unmet need for specialised services to an alternative, stable state in which people presenting for care receive immediate and effective treatment. This qualitative shift in services system functioning results from a 'virtuous cycle' in which increasing treatment-dependent recovery among patients with mild to moderate disorders reduces the number of severely ill patients requiring intensive and/or prolonged treatment, effectively 'releasing' services capacity that can be used to further reduce the disease progression rate. We present an empirical case study of tertiary-level child and adolescent mental health services in the Australian state of South Australia demonstrating that the conditions under which such critical transitions can occur apply in real-world services systems. CONCLUSIONS Policy and planning decisions aimed at increasing specialised services capacity have the potential to dramatically increase the effectiveness and efficiency of mental health care systems, promoting long-term sustainability and resilience in the face of future threats to population mental health (e.g., economic crises, natural disasters, global pandemics).
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Affiliation(s)
- Adam Skinner
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
| | - Jo-An Occhipinti
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
- Computer Simulation and Advanced Research Technologies (CSART), Sydney, Australia
| | - Ante Prodan
- Computer Simulation and Advanced Research Technologies (CSART), Sydney, Australia
- School of Computer, Data and Mathematical Sciences, Western Sydney University, Sydney, Australia
| | - Yun Ju Christine Song
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
| | - Ian B Hickie
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
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11
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Schäfer SK, Kunzler AM, Kalisch R, Tüscher O, Lieb K. Trajectories of resilience and mental distress to global major disruptions. Trends Cogn Sci 2022; 26:1171-1189. [PMID: 36302711 PMCID: PMC9595401 DOI: 10.1016/j.tics.2022.09.017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2022] [Revised: 09/20/2022] [Accepted: 09/24/2022] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a major societal disruption, raising the question of how people can maintain or quickly regain their mental health (i.e., be resilient) during such times. Researchers have used the pandemic as a use case for studying resilience in response to a global, synchronously starting, and chronic set of stressors on the individual and societal level. Our review of this recent literature reveals that mental distress trajectories during the pandemic largely resemble mental distress responses to individual-level macro-stressors, except for a lower prevalence of recovery trajectories. Results suggest more resilient responses in older adults, but trajectories are less consistent for younger and older ages compared with middle-aged adults. We call for more research integrating state-of-the-art operationalizations of resilience and using these to study resilience over the lifespan.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah K Schäfer
- Leibniz Institute for Resilience Research (LIR), D-55122 Mainz, Germany
| | - Angela M Kunzler
- Leibniz Institute for Resilience Research (LIR), D-55122 Mainz, Germany
| | - Raffael Kalisch
- Leibniz Institute for Resilience Research (LIR), D-55122 Mainz, Germany; Neuroimaging Center, Focus Program Translational Neuroscience, University Medical Center of the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, D-55131 Mainz, Germany
| | - Oliver Tüscher
- Leibniz Institute for Resilience Research (LIR), D-55122 Mainz, Germany; Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, University Medical Center of the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, D-55131 Mainz, Germany
| | - Klaus Lieb
- Leibniz Institute for Resilience Research (LIR), D-55122 Mainz, Germany; Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, University Medical Center of the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, D-55131 Mainz, Germany.
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12
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Occhipinti JA, Buchanan J, Skinner A, Song YJC, Tran K, Rosenberg S, Fels A, Doraiswamy PM, Meier P, Prodan A, Hickie IB. Measuring, Modeling, and Forecasting the Mental Wealth of Nations. Front Public Health 2022; 10:879183. [PMID: 35968431 PMCID: PMC9368578 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.879183] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2022] [Accepted: 06/06/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the deep links and fragility of economic, health and social systems. Discussions of reconstruction include renewed interest in moving beyond GDP and recognizing "human capital", "brain capital", "mental capital", and "wellbeing" as assets fundamental to economic reimagining, productivity, and prosperity. This paper describes how the conceptualization of Mental Wealth provides an important framing for measuring and shaping social and economic renewal to underpin healthy, productive, resilient, and thriving communities. We propose a transdisciplinary application of systems modeling to forecast a nation's Mental Wealth and understand the extent to which policy-mediated changes in economic, social, and health sectors could enhance collective mental health and wellbeing, social cohesion, and national prosperity. Specifically, simulation will allow comparison of the projected impacts of a range of cross-sector strategies (education sector, mental health system, labor market, and macroeconomic reforms) on GDP and national Mental Wealth, and provide decision support capability for future investments and actions to foster Mental Wealth. Finally, this paper introduces the Mental Wealth Initiative that is harnessing complex systems science to examine the interrelationships between social, commercial, and structural determinants of mental health and wellbeing, and working to empirically challenge the notion that fostering universal social prosperity is at odds with economic and commercial interests.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jo-An Occhipinti
- Faculty of Medicine and Health, Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- Computer Simulation and Advanced Research Technologies, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - John Buchanan
- Mental Wealth Initiative, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Adam Skinner
- Faculty of Medicine and Health, Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Yun Ju C. Song
- Faculty of Medicine and Health, Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Kristen Tran
- Faculty of Medicine and Health, Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Sebastian Rosenberg
- Faculty of Medicine and Health, Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Allan Fels
- Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, Melbourne Law School, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - P. Murali Doraiswamy
- Departments of Psychiatry and Medicine, Duke University School of Medicine, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States
| | - Petra Meier
- Systems Science in Public Health, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Ante Prodan
- Computer Simulation and Advanced Research Technologies, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- School of Computer, Data and Mathematical Sciences, Western Sydney University, Penrith, NSW, Australia
| | - Ian B. Hickie
- Faculty of Medicine and Health, Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
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13
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Chung S, Hovmand P, McBride AM, Joiner T. Suicide attempts during adolescence: Testing the system dynamics of the interpersonal theory of suicide. J Adolesc 2022; 94:628-641. [DOI: 10.1002/jad.12051] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2021] [Revised: 04/01/2022] [Accepted: 04/02/2022] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Saras Chung
- Computational Social Scientist Washington University in St. Louis St Louis Missouri USA
| | - Peter Hovmand
- Center for Community Health Integration, School of Medicine, and Biomedical Engineering, Case School of Engineering Case Western Reserve University Cleveland Ohio USA
| | - Amanda M. McBride
- Morris Endowed Dean and Professor, Graduate School of Social Work, University of Denver Denver Colorado USA
| | - Thomas Joiner
- Robert O. Lawton Distinguished Professor of Psychology Florida State University Tallahassee Florida USA
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14
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Lee GY, Hickie IB, Occhipinti JA, Song YJC, Camacho S, Skinner A, Lawson K, Hockey SJ, Hilber AM, Freebairn L. Participatory Systems Modelling for Youth Mental Health: An Evaluation Study Applying a Comprehensive Multi-Scale Framework. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:4015. [PMID: 35409697 PMCID: PMC8998357 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19074015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2022] [Revised: 03/21/2022] [Accepted: 03/24/2022] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
The youth mental health sector is persistently challenged by issues such as service fragmentation and inefficient resource allocation. Systems modelling and simulation, particularly utilizing participatory approaches, is offering promise in supporting evidence-informed decision making with limited resources by testing alternative strategies in safe virtual environments before implementing them in the real world. However, improved evaluation efforts are needed to understand the critical elements involved in and to improve methods for implementing participatory modelling for youth mental health system and service delivery. An evaluation protocol is described to evaluate the feasibility, value, impact, and sustainability of participatory systems modelling in delivering advanced decision support capabilities for youth mental health. This study applies a comprehensive multi-scale evaluation framework, drawing on participatory action research principles as well as formative, summative, process, and outcome evaluation techniques. Novel data collection procedures are presented, including online surveys that incorporate gamification to enable social network analysis and patient journey mapping. The evaluation approach also explores the experiences of diverse stakeholders, including young people with lived (or living) experience of mental illness. Social and technical opportunities will be uncovered, as well as challenges implementing these interdisciplinary methods in complex settings to improve youth mental health policy, planning, and outcomes. This study protocol can also be adapted for broader international applications, disciplines, and contexts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Grace Yeeun Lee
- Brain and Mind Centre, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2050, Australia; (I.B.H.); (J.-A.O.); (Y.J.C.S.); (A.S.); (K.L.); (S.J.H.); (L.F.)
| | - Ian Bernard Hickie
- Brain and Mind Centre, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2050, Australia; (I.B.H.); (J.-A.O.); (Y.J.C.S.); (A.S.); (K.L.); (S.J.H.); (L.F.)
| | - Jo-An Occhipinti
- Brain and Mind Centre, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2050, Australia; (I.B.H.); (J.-A.O.); (Y.J.C.S.); (A.S.); (K.L.); (S.J.H.); (L.F.)
- Computer Simulation & Advanced Research Technologies (CSART), Sydney, NSW 2021, Australia
| | - Yun Ju Christine Song
- Brain and Mind Centre, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2050, Australia; (I.B.H.); (J.-A.O.); (Y.J.C.S.); (A.S.); (K.L.); (S.J.H.); (L.F.)
| | - Salvador Camacho
- Swiss Centre for International Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, 4123 Allschwil, Switzerland; (S.C.); (A.M.H.)
- University of Basel, 4001 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Adam Skinner
- Brain and Mind Centre, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2050, Australia; (I.B.H.); (J.-A.O.); (Y.J.C.S.); (A.S.); (K.L.); (S.J.H.); (L.F.)
| | - Kenny Lawson
- Brain and Mind Centre, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2050, Australia; (I.B.H.); (J.-A.O.); (Y.J.C.S.); (A.S.); (K.L.); (S.J.H.); (L.F.)
| | - Samuel J. Hockey
- Brain and Mind Centre, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2050, Australia; (I.B.H.); (J.-A.O.); (Y.J.C.S.); (A.S.); (K.L.); (S.J.H.); (L.F.)
| | - Adriane Martin Hilber
- Swiss Centre for International Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, 4123 Allschwil, Switzerland; (S.C.); (A.M.H.)
- University of Basel, 4001 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Louise Freebairn
- Brain and Mind Centre, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2050, Australia; (I.B.H.); (J.-A.O.); (Y.J.C.S.); (A.S.); (K.L.); (S.J.H.); (L.F.)
- Computer Simulation & Advanced Research Technologies (CSART), Sydney, NSW 2021, Australia
- Research School of Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia
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15
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LaMonica HM, Iorfino F, Lee GY, Piper S, Occhipinti JA, Davenport TA, Cross S, Milton A, Ospina-Pinillos L, Whittle L, Rowe SC, Dowling M, Stewart E, Ottavio A, Hockey S, Cheng VWS, Burns J, Scott EM, Hickie IB. Informing the Future of Integrated Digital and Clinical Mental Health Care: Synthesis of the Outcomes From Project Synergy. JMIR Ment Health 2022; 9:e33060. [PMID: 34974414 PMCID: PMC8943544 DOI: 10.2196/33060] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/26/2021] [Revised: 12/14/2021] [Accepted: 12/30/2021] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Globally, there are fundamental shortcomings in mental health care systems, including restricted access, siloed services, interventions that are poorly matched to service users' needs, underuse of personal outcome monitoring to track progress, exclusion of family and carers, and suboptimal experiences of care. Health information technologies (HITs) hold great potential to improve these aspects that underpin the enhanced quality of mental health care. OBJECTIVE Project Synergy aimed to co-design, implement, and evaluate novel HITs, as exemplified by the InnoWell Platform, to work with standard health care organizations. The goals were to deliver improved outcomes for specific populations under focus and support organizations to enact significant system-level reforms. METHODS Participating health care organizations included the following: Open Arms-Veterans & Families Counselling (in Sydney and Lismore, New South Wales [NSW]); NSW North Coast headspace centers for youth (Port Macquarie, Coffs Harbour, Grafton, Lismore, and Tweed Heads); the Butterfly Foundation's National Helpline for eating disorders; Kildare Road Medical Centre for enhanced primary care; and Connect to Wellbeing North Coast NSW (administered by Neami National), for population-based intake and assessment. Service users, families and carers, health professionals, and administrators of services across Australia were actively engaged in the configuration of the InnoWell Platform to meet service needs, identify barriers to and facilitators of quality mental health care, and highlight potentially the best points in the service pathway to integrate the InnoWell Platform. The locally configured InnoWell Platform was then implemented within the respective services. A mixed methods approach, including surveys, semistructured interviews, and workshops, was used to evaluate the impact of the InnoWell Platform. A participatory systems modeling approach involving co-design with local stakeholders was also undertaken to simulate the likely impact of the platform in combination with other services being considered for implementation within the North Coast Primary Health Network to explore resulting impacts on mental health outcomes, including suicide prevention. RESULTS Despite overwhelming support for integrating digital health solutions into mental health service settings and promising impacts of the platform simulated under idealized implementation conditions, our results emphasized that successful implementation is dependent on health professional and service readiness for change, leadership at the local service level, the appropriateness and responsiveness of the technology for the target end users, and, critically, funding models being available to support implementation. The key places of interoperability of digital solutions and a willingness to use technology to coordinate health care system use were also highlighted. CONCLUSIONS Although the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the widespread acceptance of very basic digital health solutions, Project Synergy highlights the critical need to support equity of access to HITs, provide funding for digital infrastructure and digital mental health care, and actively promote the use of technology-enabled, coordinated systems of care.
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Affiliation(s)
- Haley M LaMonica
- Brain and Mind Centre, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, Australia
| | - Frank Iorfino
- Brain and Mind Centre, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, Australia
| | - Grace Yeeun Lee
- Brain and Mind Centre, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, Australia
| | - Sarah Piper
- Brain and Mind Centre, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, Australia
| | - Jo-An Occhipinti
- Brain and Mind Centre, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, Australia
| | | | - Shane Cross
- Brain and Mind Centre, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, Australia
| | - Alyssa Milton
- Brain and Mind Centre, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, Australia
| | | | - Lisa Whittle
- Brain and Mind Centre, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, Australia
| | - Shelley C Rowe
- Brain and Mind Centre, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, Australia
| | - Mitchell Dowling
- Brain and Mind Centre, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, Australia
| | - Elizabeth Stewart
- Brain and Mind Centre, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, Australia
| | - Antonia Ottavio
- Brain and Mind Centre, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, Australia.,InnoWell Pty Ltd, Sydney, Australia
| | - Samuel Hockey
- Brain and Mind Centre, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, Australia
| | | | | | - Elizabeth M Scott
- Brain and Mind Centre, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, Australia
| | - Ian B Hickie
- Brain and Mind Centre, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, Australia
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16
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Freebairn L, Occhipinti JA, Song YJC, Skinner A, Lawson K, Lee GY, Hockey SJ, Huntley S, Hickie IB. Participatory Methods for Systems Modeling of Youth Mental Health: Implementation Protocol. JMIR Res Protoc 2022; 11:e32988. [PMID: 35129446 PMCID: PMC8861863 DOI: 10.2196/32988] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2021] [Revised: 11/29/2021] [Accepted: 11/30/2021] [Indexed: 01/16/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Despite significant investment, mental health issues remain a leading cause of death among young people globally. Sophisticated decision analysis methods are needed to better understand the dynamic and multisector drivers of youth mental health. System modeling can help explore complex issues such as youth mental health and inform strategies to effectively respond to local needs and achieve lasting improvements. The advantages of engaging stakeholders in model development processes have long been recognized; however, the methods for doing so are often not well-described. Objective This paper aims to describe the participatory procedures that will be used to support systems modeling for national multisite implementation. The Right Care, First Time, Where You Live research program will focus on regional youth mental health applications of systems modeling in 8 different sites across Australia. Methods The participatory model development approach involves an iterative process of engaging with a range of participants, including people with lived experience of mental health issues. Their knowledge of the local systems, pathways, and drivers is combined with the academic literature and data to populate the models and validate their structure. The process centers around 3 workshops where participants interact and actively engage in group model-building activities to define, refine, and validate the systems models. This paper provides a detailed blueprint for the implementation of this process for mental health applications. Results The participatory modeling methods described in this paper will be implemented at 2 sites per year from 2022 to 2025. The 8 selected sites have been chosen to capture variations in important factors, including determinants of mental health issues and access to services. Site engagement commenced in August 2021, and the first modeling workshops are scheduled to commence in February 2022. Conclusions Mental health system decision makers require tools to help navigate complex environments and leverage interdisciplinary problem-solving. Systems modeling can mobilize data from diverse sources to explore a range of scenarios, including the impact of interventions in different combinations and contexts. Involving stakeholders in the model development process ensures that the model findings are context-relevant and fit-for-purpose to inform decision-making. International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID) PRR1-10.2196/32988
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Affiliation(s)
- Louise Freebairn
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Camperdown, Australia.,Computer Simulation & Advanced Research Technologies (CSART), Sydney, Australia.,Research School of Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
| | - Jo-An Occhipinti
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Camperdown, Australia.,Computer Simulation & Advanced Research Technologies (CSART), Sydney, Australia
| | - Yun Ju C Song
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Camperdown, Australia
| | - Adam Skinner
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Camperdown, Australia
| | - Kenny Lawson
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Camperdown, Australia
| | - Grace Yeeun Lee
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Camperdown, Australia
| | - Samuel J Hockey
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Camperdown, Australia
| | - Samantha Huntley
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Camperdown, Australia
| | - Ian B Hickie
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Camperdown, Australia
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17
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Occhipinti JA, Rose D, Skinner A, Rock D, Song YJC, Prodan A, Rosenberg S, Freebairn L, Vacher C, Hickie IB. Sound Decision Making in Uncertain Times: Can Systems Modelling Be Useful for Informing Policy and Planning for Suicide Prevention? INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:ijerph19031468. [PMID: 35162491 PMCID: PMC8835017 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19031468] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2021] [Revised: 01/21/2022] [Accepted: 01/24/2022] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the significant value of systems modelling in supporting proactive and effective public health decision making despite the complexities and uncertainties that characterise an evolving crisis. The same approach is possible in the field of mental health. However, a commonly levelled (but misguided) criticism prevents systems modelling from being more routinely adopted, namely, that the presence of uncertainty around key model input parameters renders a model useless. This study explored whether radically different simulated trajectories of suicide would result in different advice to decision makers regarding the optimal strategy to mitigate the impacts of the pandemic on mental health. Using an existing system dynamics model developed in August 2020 for a regional catchment of Western Australia, four scenarios were simulated to model the possible effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on levels of psychological distress. The scenarios produced a range of projected impacts on suicide deaths, ranging from a relatively small to a dramatic increase. Discordance in the sets of best-performing intervention scenarios across the divergent COVID-mental health trajectories was assessed by comparing differences in projected numbers of suicides between the baseline scenario and each of 286 possible intervention scenarios calculated for two time horizons; 2026 and 2041. The best performing intervention combinations over the period 2021–2041 (i.e., post-suicide attempt assertive aftercare, community support programs to increase community connectedness, and technology enabled care coordination) were highly consistent across all four COVID-19 mental health trajectories, reducing suicide deaths by between 23.9–24.6% against the baseline. However, the ranking of best performing intervention combinations does alter depending on the time horizon under consideration due to non-linear intervention impacts. These findings suggest that systems models can retain value in informing robust decision making despite uncertainty in the trajectories of population mental health outcomes. It is recommended that the time horizon under consideration be sufficiently long to capture the full effects of interventions, and efforts should be made to achieve more timely tracking and access to key population mental health indicators to inform model refinements over time and reduce uncertainty in mental health policy and planning decisions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jo-An Occhipinti
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia; (D.R.); (A.S.); (Y.J.C.S.); (A.P.); (S.R.); (L.F.); (C.V.); (I.B.H.)
- Computer Simulation & Advanced Research Technologies (CSART), Sydney, NSW 2021, Australia
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +61-467-522-766
| | - Danya Rose
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia; (D.R.); (A.S.); (Y.J.C.S.); (A.P.); (S.R.); (L.F.); (C.V.); (I.B.H.)
| | - Adam Skinner
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia; (D.R.); (A.S.); (Y.J.C.S.); (A.P.); (S.R.); (L.F.); (C.V.); (I.B.H.)
| | - Daniel Rock
- Medical School, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA 6009, Australia;
- WA Primary Health Alliance, Perth, WA 6008, Australia
| | - Yun Ju C. Song
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia; (D.R.); (A.S.); (Y.J.C.S.); (A.P.); (S.R.); (L.F.); (C.V.); (I.B.H.)
| | - Ante Prodan
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia; (D.R.); (A.S.); (Y.J.C.S.); (A.P.); (S.R.); (L.F.); (C.V.); (I.B.H.)
- Computer Simulation & Advanced Research Technologies (CSART), Sydney, NSW 2021, Australia
- School of Computer, Data and Mathematical Sciences, Western Sydney University, Penrith, NSW 2751, Australia
| | - Sebastian Rosenberg
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia; (D.R.); (A.S.); (Y.J.C.S.); (A.P.); (S.R.); (L.F.); (C.V.); (I.B.H.)
| | - Louise Freebairn
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia; (D.R.); (A.S.); (Y.J.C.S.); (A.P.); (S.R.); (L.F.); (C.V.); (I.B.H.)
- Computer Simulation & Advanced Research Technologies (CSART), Sydney, NSW 2021, Australia
| | - Catherine Vacher
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia; (D.R.); (A.S.); (Y.J.C.S.); (A.P.); (S.R.); (L.F.); (C.V.); (I.B.H.)
- St Vincent’s Clinical School, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
| | - Ian B. Hickie
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia; (D.R.); (A.S.); (Y.J.C.S.); (A.P.); (S.R.); (L.F.); (C.V.); (I.B.H.)
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18
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Enticott J, Dawadi S, Shawyer F, Inder B, Fossey E, Teede H, Rosenberg S, Ozols Am I, Meadows G. Mental Health in Australia: Psychological Distress Reported in Six Consecutive Cross-Sectional National Surveys From 2001 to 2018. Front Psychiatry 2022; 13:815904. [PMID: 35432016 PMCID: PMC9010616 DOI: 10.3389/fpsyt.2022.815904] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2021] [Accepted: 02/25/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
PURPOSE To examine Australian psychological distress trends from 2001 to 2017/18, including analysis by age, sex, location, and household income. METHODS Secondary analysis of the working age population (18-64 years) in six successive representative national health surveys. Measures were prevalence of psychological distress at very-high symptom level (defined by a Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K10) score of 30 or more) and combined high/very-high level (K10 score of 22 or more). Very-high K10 scores are associated with mental health problems meeting diagnostic thresholds in past year. RESULTS From 2001 to 2017/18 Australian rates of K10 very-high distress rose significantly from 3.8 to 5.1% and combined high/very-high from 13.2 to 14.8%. In women aged 55-64, very-high distress rose significantly and substantially from 3.5 to 7.2% and high/very-high distress from 12.4 to 18.7%. In men aged 25-34, very-high distress increased from 2.1 to 4.0% and high/very-high from 10.6 to 11.5%. Income was strongly and inversely associated with distress (lowest vs. highest quintile adjusted OR 11.4). An apparent association of increased distress with regional location disappeared with adjustment for income. CONCLUSION Australia's population level of psychological distress increased significantly from 2001-2017/18, with levels highest in women and with rates inversely associated with income. This is likely to be indicative of increased community rates of mental disorders. Given that this has occurred whilst mental healthcare expenditure has increased, there is an urgent need to reconsider how best to respond to mental illness, including targeting the most vulnerable based on social determinants such as age, gender, and lower incomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joanne Enticott
- Southern Synergy, Department of Psychiatry, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.,Monash Centre for Health Research and Implementation, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia
| | - Shrinkhala Dawadi
- Southern Synergy, Department of Psychiatry, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.,Monash Centre for Health Research and Implementation, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia
| | - Frances Shawyer
- Southern Synergy, Department of Psychiatry, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Brett Inder
- Monash Business School, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Ellie Fossey
- Department of Occupational Therapy, Monash University Peninsula Campus, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.,School of Primary and Allied Health Care, Monash University, Victoria, VIC, Australia
| | - Helena Teede
- Monash Centre for Health Research and Implementation, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia
| | - Sebastian Rosenberg
- Brain and Mind Centre, Sydney Medical School, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Ingrid Ozols Am
- Southern Synergy, Department of Psychiatry, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.,Mental Health at Work, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Graham Meadows
- Southern Synergy, Department of Psychiatry, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.,Monash Centre for Health Research and Implementation, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia.,School of Primary and Allied Health Care, Monash University, Victoria, VIC, Australia.,Centre for Mental Health, School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.,Monash Health, Dandenong, VIC, Australia
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19
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Lawson KD, Occhipinti JA, Freebairn L, Skinner A, Song YJC, Lee GY, Huntley S, Hickie IB. A Dynamic Approach to Economic Priority Setting to Invest in Youth Mental Health and Guide Local Implementation: Economic Protocol for Eight System Dynamics Policy Models. Front Psychiatry 2022; 13:835201. [PMID: 35573322 PMCID: PMC9103687 DOI: 10.3389/fpsyt.2022.835201] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/14/2021] [Accepted: 03/01/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Mental illness costs the world economy over US2.5 Bn each year, including premature mortality, morbidity, and productivity losses. Multisector approaches are required to address the systemic drivers of mental health and ensure adequate service provision. There is an important role for economics to support priority setting, identify best value investments and inform optimal implementation. Mental health can be defined as a complex dynamic system where decision makers are challenged to prospectively manage the system over time. This protocol describes the approach to equip eight system dynamics (SD) models across Australia to support priority setting and guide portfolio investment decisions, tailored to local implementation context. METHODS As part of a multidisciplinary team, three interlinked protocols are developed; (i) the participatory process to codesign the models with local stakeholders and identify interventions for implementation, (ii) the technical protocol to develop the SD models to simulate the dynamics of the local population, drivers of mental health, the service system and clinical outcomes, and (iii) the economic protocol to detail how the SD models will be equipped to undertake a suite of economic analysis, incorporating health and societal perspectives. Models will estimate the cost of mental illness, inclusive of service costs (health and other sectors, where necessary), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost, productivity costs and carer costs. To assess the value of investing (disinvesting) in interventions, economic analysis will include return-on-investment, cost-utility, cost benefit, and budget impact to inform affordability. Economic metrics are expected to be dynamic, conditional upon changing population demographics, service system capacities and the mix of interventions when synergetic or antagonistic interactions. To support priority setting, a portfolio approach will identify best value combinations of interventions, relative to a defined budget(s). User friendly dashboards will guide decision makers to use the SD models to inform resource allocation and generate business cases for funding. DISCUSSION Equipping SD models to undertake economic analysis is intended to support local priority setting and help optimise implementation regarding the best value mix of investments, timing and scale. The objectives are to improve allocative efficiency, increase mental health and economic productivity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kenny D Lawson
- Faculty of Medicine and Health, Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Jo-An Occhipinti
- Faculty of Medicine and Health, Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.,Computer Simulation & Advanced Research Technologies (CSART), Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Louise Freebairn
- Faculty of Medicine and Health, Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.,Computer Simulation & Advanced Research Technologies (CSART), Sydney, NSW, Australia.,Research School of Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia
| | - Adam Skinner
- Faculty of Medicine and Health, Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Yun Ju C Song
- Faculty of Medicine and Health, Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Grace Yeeun Lee
- Faculty of Medicine and Health, Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Sam Huntley
- Faculty of Medicine and Health, Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Ian B Hickie
- Faculty of Medicine and Health, Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
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20
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21
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Iorfino F, Occhipinti JA, Skinner A, Davenport T, Rowe S, Prodan A, Sturgess J, Hickie IB. The Impact of Technology-Enabled Care Coordination in a Complex Mental Health System: A Local System Dynamics Model. J Med Internet Res 2021; 23:e25331. [PMID: 34077384 PMCID: PMC8274674 DOI: 10.2196/25331] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/28/2020] [Revised: 12/20/2020] [Accepted: 04/15/2021] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, major shortcomings in the way mental health care systems were organized were impairing the delivery of effective care. The mental health impacts of the pandemic, the recession, and the resulting social dislocation will depend on the extent to which care systems will become overwhelmed and on the strategic investments made across the system to effectively respond. Objective This study aimed to explore the impact of strengthening the mental health system through technology-enabled care coordination on mental health and suicide outcomes. Methods A system dynamics model for the regional population catchment of North Coast New South Wales, Australia, was developed that incorporated defined pathways from social determinants of mental health to psychological distress, mental health care, and suicidal behavior. The model reproduced historic time series data across a range of outcomes and was used to evaluate the relative impact of a set of scenarios on attempted suicide (ie, self-harm hospitalizations), suicide deaths, mental health–related emergency department (ED) presentations, and psychological distress over the period from 2021 to 2030. These scenarios include (1) business as usual, (2) increase in service capacity growth rate by 20%, (3) standard telehealth, and (4) technology-enabled care coordination. Each scenario was tested using both pre– and post–COVID-19 social and economic conditions. Results Technology-enabled care coordination was forecast to deliver a reduction in self-harm hospitalizations and suicide deaths by 6.71% (95% interval 5.63%-7.87%), mental health–related ED presentations by 10.33% (95% interval 8.58%-12.19%), and the prevalence of high psychological distress by 1.76 percentage points (95% interval 1.35-2.32 percentage points). Scenario testing demonstrated that increasing service capacity growth rate by 20% or standard telehealth had substantially lower impacts. This pattern of results was replicated under post–COVID-19 conditions with technology-enabled care coordination being the only tested scenario, which was forecast to reduce the negative impact of the pandemic on mental health and suicide. Conclusions The use of technology-enabled care coordination is likely to improve mental health and suicide outcomes. The substantially lower effectiveness of targeting individual components of the mental health system (ie, increasing service capacity growth rate by 20% or standard telehealth) reiterates that strengthening the whole system has the greatest impact on patient outcomes. Investments into more of the same types of programs and services alone will not be enough to improve outcomes; instead, new models of care and the digital infrastructure to support them and their integration are needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Frank Iorfino
- Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
| | | | - Adam Skinner
- Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
| | | | - Shelley Rowe
- Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
| | - Ante Prodan
- Translational Health Research Institute, Western Sydney University, Sydney, Australia
| | - Julie Sturgess
- North Coast Primary Health Network, Coffs Harbour, Australia
| | - Ian B Hickie
- Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
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22
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Occhipinti JA, Skinner A, Freebairn L, Song YJC, Ho N, Lawson K, Lee GY, Hickie IB. Which Social, Economic, and Health Sector Strategies Will Deliver the Greatest Impacts for Youth Mental Health and Suicide Prevention? Protocol for an Advanced, Systems Modelling Approach. Front Psychiatry 2021; 12:759343. [PMID: 34721120 PMCID: PMC8548722 DOI: 10.3389/fpsyt.2021.759343] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/16/2021] [Accepted: 09/14/2021] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: Current global challenges are generating extensive social disruption and uncertainty that have the potential to undermine the mental health, wellbeing, and futures of young people. The scale and complexity of challenges call for engagement with systems science-based decision analytic tools that can capture the dynamics and interrelationships between physical, social, economic, and health systems, and support effective national and regional responses. At the outset of the pandemic mental health-related systems models were developed for the Australian context, however, the extent to which findings are generalisable across diverse regions remains unknown. This study aims to explore the context dependency of systems modelling insights. Methods: This study will employ a comparative case study design, applying participatory system dynamics modelling across eight diverse regions of Australia to answer three primary research questions: (i) Will current regional differences in key youth mental health outcomes be exacerbated in forward projections due to the social and economic impacts of COVID-19?; (ii) What combination of social policies and health system strengthening initiatives will deliver the greatest impacts within each region?; (iii) To what extent are optimal strategic responses consistent across the diverse regions? We provide a detailed technical blueprint as a potential springboard for more timely construction and deployment of systems models in international contexts to facilitate a broader examination of the question of generalisability and inform investments in the mental health and wellbeing of young people in the post COVID-19 recovery. Discussion: Computer simulation is known as the third pillar of science (after theory and experiment). Simulation allows researchers and decision makers to move beyond what can be manipulated within the scale, time, and ethical limits of the experimental approach. Such learning when achieved collectively, has the potential to enhance regional self-determination, help move beyond incremental adjustments to the status quo, and catalyze transformational change. This research seeks to advance efforts to establish regional decision support infrastructure and empower communities to effectively respond. In addition, this research seeks to move towards an understanding of the extent to which systems modelling insights may be relevant to the global mental health response by encouraging researchers to use, challenge, and advance the existing work for scientific and societal progress.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jo-An Occhipinti
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.,Computer Simulation & Advanced Research Technologies (CSART), Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Adam Skinner
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Louise Freebairn
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.,Computer Simulation & Advanced Research Technologies (CSART), Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Yun Ju Christine Song
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Nicholas Ho
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Kenny Lawson
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Grace Yeeun Lee
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Ian B Hickie
- Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
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