Sex specific trajectories of central adiposity, lipid indices, and glucose level with incident hypertension: 12 years Follow-up in Tehran lipid and glucose study

Trajectories of obesity indices and their association with pain in community-dwelling older adults: Findings from the English longitudinal study of ageing

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of pain has increased with the increase of obesity, and finding indicators to predict pain risk has become an urgent need. BMI, WC, and WHtR have the potential to be excellent predictors. However, the association of these obesity indicators with various pains remains unclear.

METHODS

This longitudinal cohort study included 2155 pain-free participants (mean age = 68.5 years, standard deviation [SD] = 8.6) from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). BMI, WC, and WHtR were measured during nurse visits at waves 0, 2, and 4. The Group-Based Trajectory Model (GBTM) was used to identify optimal trajectories for BMI, WC, and WHtR. Self-reported pain at four anatomical sites (lower back, hip, knee and total pain) was assessed at Waves 4 to 9. Cox proportional hazards models were employed to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between obesity indices and pain risk.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up period of 7.49 years, we observed 1,059 incident cases of all-cause pain. After adjusting for confounders, participants in the High-Stable WC group had a 30% higher risk of experiencing pain (HR: 1.30, 95 % CI: 1.05-1.60, P = 0.014), while those in the High-Stable WHtR group had a 29% higher risk (HR: 1.29, 95% CI: 1.06-1.56, P = 0.010) compared to the Low-Stable group. High-stable trajectories for BMI, WC, and WHtR were also associated with an elevated risk of back, hip, and knee pain.

CONCLUSION

This study identifies long-term obesity indices as significant predictors of pain, suggesting the importance of monitoring these measures for effective clinical risk assessments. Further research is needed to explore the underlying mechanisms of these associations.

Association between blood pressure multi-trajectory and cardiovascular disease among a Chinese elderly medical examination population

Objective

This study aimed to characterize multivariate trajectories of blood pressure [systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP)] jointly and examine their impact on incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) among a Chinese elderly medical examination population.

Methods

A total of 13,504 individuals without CVD during 2018-2020 were included from the Chinese geriatric physical examination cohort study. The group-based trajectory model was used to construct multi-trajectories of systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure. The primary outcome was the incidence of the first CVD events, consisting of stroke and coronary heart diseases, in 2021. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between BP multi-trajectories and incident CVD events.

Results

We identified four blood pressure (BP) subclasses, summarized by their SBP and DBP levels from low to high as class 1 (7.16%), class 2 (55.17%), class 3 (32.26%), and class 4 (5.41%). In 2021, we documented 890 incident CVD events. Compared with participants in class 1, adjusted HRs were 1.56 (95% CI: 1.12-2.19) for class 2, 1.75 (95% CI: 1.24-2.47) for class 3, and 1.88 (95% CI: 1.24-2.85) for class 4 after adjustment for demographics, health behaviors, and metabolic index. Individuals aged 65 years and above with higher levels of BP trajectories had higher risks of CVD events in China.

Conclusions

Individuals with higher levels of both SBP and DBP trajectories over time were associated with an increased risk of incident CVD in the Chinese elderly population.

Association of sex-specific body mass index and waist circumference trajectories with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease incidence based on growth mixture modeling

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a common chronic liver disease. The relationship between the trajectories of obesity indicators and incident NAFLD is unknown. Therefore, this study aims to explore the sex-specific association between the trajectories of obesity indicators and the incidence of NAFLD.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In total, 9067 participants were recruited for this longitudinal study. Obesity indicators use body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC). The trajectory of obesity indicators was analyzed using the growth mixture modeling. The multivariate logistic regression model was used to analyze the association between obesity indicators' trajectories and incident NAFLD. Over a median follow-up of 1.82 years, 1013 (11.74%) participants developed NAFLD. We identified BMI and WC change trajectories as the stable group, increasing group, and decreasing group. After adjusting for baseline level and other confounders, multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that compared with stable group of BMI, the increasing group, and decreasing group odds ratio and 95% confidence interval of NAFLD were 2.10 (1.06-4.15), and 0.25 (0.09-0.67) in men, and 1.82 (1.08-3.04) and 0.32 (0.16-0.64) in women. Compared with stable group of WC, the increasing group was 2.57 (1.39-4.74) in men, the increasing group, and decreasing group were 2.29 (1.70-3.10) and 0.28 (0.12-0.64) in women. Sensitivity analysis showed that the results were stable.

CONCLUSION

The BMI and WC changing trajectories are significantly associated with the incidence of NAFLD in men and women. Populations of real-world health examinations can be categorized based on obesity indicator changes to prevent NAFLD.

Mediating effect of cumulative lipid profile burden on the effect of diet and obesity on hypertension incidence: a cohort study of people aged 35-65 in rural China

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Cumulative lipid profile burden is designed to dynamically measure lipid accumulation, and its effect on hypertension has been poorly studied. Our main purpose was to investigate the effect of cumulative lipid profile burden on the incidence of essential hypertension (EH) and to investigate whether cumulative lipid burden mediates the pathogenesis of the effects of diet and obesity on EH.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

A total of 1295 participants were included in the study, which started in 2017. The average follow-up time was 2.98 years. A total of 240 EH patients occurred during the follow-up period.

RESULTS

The HR (95% CI) of the highest quartile in cumulative Total cholesterol (TC), triglyceride (TG) and high density lipoprotein (HDL) burden were 1.747 (1.145 - 2.664), 1.502 (1.038 - 2.173), 0.615 (0.413 - 0.917) for incidence of EH respectively, compared to the respective reference groups. Participants with EH consumed more red meat and refined grains, and red meat was positively associated with cumulative TC burden. BMI and Waist-To-Height Ratio (WHtR) increased the incidence of EH, and obesity was positively correlated with cumulative TG burden. Mediating analysis showed that cumulative TG had a partial mediating effect in the causal relationship between obesity and EH, and Mendelian randomization (MR) also proved this result. Diet was not found to influence EHn through cumulative lipid profile burden.

CONCLUSIONS

The cumulative TG burden partially mediates the effect of obesity on EH.

Change in blood pressure status defined by 2017 ACC/AHA hypertension guideline and risk of cardiovascular disease: results of over a decade of follow-up of the Iranian population

Background

Hypertension (HTN) is known to be the leading cause of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality. We aimed to assess the impact of changes in 3 years in different blood pressure (BP) categories on incident CVD.

Methods

In this study, 3,685 Tehranians aged ≥30 years (42.2% men) free of prevalent CVD with BP level <140/90 mmHg and not on BP-lowering medications were enrolled. Participants were grouped according to baseline BP category using the 2017 ACC/AHA hypertension guideline definition: normal BP (<120/80 mmHg), elevated BP (120-129/<80), and stage 1 HTN (130-139 and/or 80-89). The hazard ratio of incident CVD by changes in the BP category was estimated after adjustment for traditional risk factors using Cox's proportional hazard model, with stable normotension as a reference.

Results

During a median follow-up of 11.7 years, 346 CVD events (men = 208) occurred. Compared to the reference group, among participants with normal BP at baseline, only those with BP rising to stage 1 HTN [1.47 (0.99-2.16)], and among those with stage 1 HTN at baseline, regression to elevated BP [1.80 (1.11-2.91)], remaining at stage 1 [1.80 (1.29-2.52)], and progression to stage 2 HTN [1.81 (1.25-2.61)] had a higher risk for CVD; however, regression to normal BP attenuated this risk [1.36 (0.88-2.12)]. Conversion from elevated BP to any other categories had no significant association with CVD risk.

Conclusions

Generally, prevalent stage 1 HTN (regardless of changing category) and incident stage 1 HTN were significantly associated with a higher risk of CVD; even regression to elevated BP did not attenuate the risk. Accordingly, these populations are potential candidates for antihypertensive management.

Sex-based differences in risk of cardiovascular disease development and cardiovascular risk factors among individuals with hypertension: A cross-sectional study from primary care facilities

BACKGROUND

Over the last two decades, the understanding of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has expanded in Asian countries. Despite this progress, there have been limited investigations into sex-based differences in the development of CVD and cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs).

AIM

We investigated whether males and females with hypertension had different risks of developing CVD and CVRFs.

METHODS

We used a stratified multi-stage sampling design involving 15 primary care centers in Thailand. We recruited 1,448 individuals aged 35-74 years old. The Framingham cardiovascular risk algorithm was used to determine the risk of CVD development.

RESULTS

Female patients were overall more likely to have lower CVD risk scores. However, they demonstrated higher scores in the moderate-risk (p < 0.001) and high-risk (p < 0.001) groups as compared with males. One in four females was at a high risk of developing CVD. Females had higher rates of all CVRFs against males across sub-risk groups, with the highest odds ratio observed in the high-risk group, which persisted after adjusting for covariations. Overall, female patients had higher rates of diabetes, hyperlipidemia, obesity, and abdominal obesity as compared with males. Females in the overall group had a lower prevalence of uncontrolled hypertension than males, in contrast to the high-risk group. Female patients also had a lower prevalence of cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption than males.

CONCLUSION

There is evidence of sex-based differences in the risk of CVD development in hypertensive individuals. The interaction of CVRFs with a high risk of developing CVD was noted in females.

Multiple Trajectories of Body Mass Index and Waist Circumference and Their Associations with Hypertension and Blood Pressure in Chinese Adults from 1991 to 2018: A Prospective Study

Body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) have been suggested to be involved in the etiology of hypertension. The present study aimed to determine multiple trajectories of BMI and WC, then examined their associations with the risks of hypertension and high blood pressure in Chinese adults. The study used China Health and Nutrition Survey data from 1991 to 2018. The sample included 9651 adults aged 18 years or older. We used group-based multi-trajectory modeling to identify trajectories. We estimated the relationships between the trajectories and the risks of hypertension with a Cox proportional hazards regression model and the trajectories' relationships with blood pressure levels with a generalized linear model. We identified four trajectories for each gender: low stable BMI, low increasing WC (group 1); medium increasing BMI, medium increasing WC (group 2); increasing BMI to overweight, increasing WC to central obesity (group 3), increasing BMI to obesity, increasing central obesity WC (group 4). Group 1 was the reference group. Among males in groups 2, 3, and 4, the adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of hypertension were 1.30 (1.15-1.48), 1.86 (1.58-2.18), and 2.60 (2.02-3.34), respectively. The systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) of males in group 4 increased by 11.90 mm of mercury (mmHg) and 7.75 mmHg, respectively. Among females in groups 2, 3, and 4, the HR and 95% CI of hypertension were 1.35 (1.18-1.54), 1.92 (1.62-2.26), and 2.37 (1.85-3.03), respectively. The SBP and DBP of females in group 4 increased by 8.84 mmHg and 5.79 mmHg, respectively. These data indicated that increases in BMI and WC were associated with unfavorable hypertension risks. Attention to both BMI and WC trajectories has the potential to prevent hypertension.

Waist Circumference Trajectories in Relation to Blood Pressure and the Risk of Hypertension in Chinese Adults

Central obesity is associated with a higher risk of hypertension. This study aimed to analyze waist circumference (WC) trajectories and discover their association with blood pressure and the risk of hypertension. The data were obtained from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS), with a sample of 11,885 adults aged 18 or older. Trajectory groups of WC were identified by group-based trajectory modeling. Three trajectory groups were identified in males: "normal-stable group" (group 1), "normal-increase to central obesity group" (group 2), and "central obesity-slight decrease group" (group 3). There were also three identified in females: "normal-increase to central obesity group" (group 1), "normal-stable group" (group 2), and "central obesity-increase group" (group 3). For males, compared with group 1, systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) increased by 2.47 mmHg and 2.13 mmHg, respectively, in group 2, and by 3.07 mmHg and 2.54 mmHg, respectively, in group 3. The adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) of hypertension in groups 2 and 3 were 1.16 (1.06-1.28) and 1.29 (1.10-1.50), respectively. For females, compared with group 2, SBP and DBP increased by 1.69 mmHg and 1.68 mmHg, respectively, in group 1, and by 4.96 mmHg and 2.77 mmHg, respectively, in group 3. The HR and 95% CI of hypertension in groups 2 and 3 were 1.21 (1.07-1.36) and 1.52(1.17-1.99), respectively. We found that the WC trajectory was a risk factor for hypertension and elevated blood pressure independent of basal WC. Increased risk of hypertension was nonlinearly associated with annual WC increase.

Sex-specific metabolic risk factors and their trajectories towards the non-alcoholic fatty liver disease incidence

PURPOSE

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a common chronic liver disease. This study examined sex-specific associations between NAFLD and metabolic factors and investigated the trajectory of risk factors.

METHODS

We retrospectively investigated 16,140 individuals from Beijing Health Management Cohort. Univariate and multivariate time-dependent Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors for new-onset NAFLD. The trajectory of risk factors was investigated using the latent growth curve model and growth mixture model.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 3.15 years, 2,450 (15.18%) participants developed NAFLD. The risk factors for NAFLD in men were increased body mass index (BMI); waist circumference (WC); triglyceride (TG), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), haemoglobin (Hb), and serum uric acid (SUA) levels; and platelet (PLT) count and decreased serum creatinine-to-body weight (sCr/bw) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels. In women, the risk factors were increased BMI, WC, and fasting plasma glucose (FPG), TG, LDL-C, SUA, white blood cell (WBC), and PLT and decreased sCr/bw and HDL-C levels. In addition, BMI, LDL-C, sCr/bw and PLT changing trajectories were associated with NAFLD in men; BMI, WC, TG, LDL-C, SUA and sCr/bw trends was associated with NAFLD risk in women.

CONCLUSIONS

Development of NAFLD is associated with BMI, LDL-C, sCr/bw and PLT changing trajectories in men; BMI, WC, TG, LDL-C, SUA and sCr/bw trends are associated an increased risk of NAFLD in women. Deterioration of metabolic risk factors status can be a predictor of NAFLD many years before its occurrence.

Metabolically healthy transition and its association with body size change patterns among different adult age groups

OBJECTIVE

To explore the metabolically healthy (MH) to metabolically unhealthy (MU) transition and its association with body size change patterns according to age.

METHODS

In total, 12,910 MH subjects were evaluated in 2013 and reevaluated in 2020. A MH state was defined as a score ≤ 1, and a MU state was defined as a score > 1 on the National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III criteria.

RESULTS

Approximately 27.0% of MH individuals converted to MU status over the follow-up. Compared with young adults, middle adulthood individuals had a 1.33-fold (95% CI: 1.21-1.46) and late adulthood individuals had a 1.55-fold (95% CI: 1.41-1.70) risk of transition. The body mass index (BMI)/waist circumference (WC)-value change was positively associated with metabolic deterioration; the association weakened with age. With stable normal body size (defined by BMI) as a reference, changing phenotype categories of maximum overweight [hazard ratio (HR): 1.75; 95% CI: 1.56-1.95], non-obesity to general obesity (HR: 2.96; 95% CI: 2.47-3.54) and stable general obesity (HR: 2.44; 95% CI: 1.92-3.10) conferred a higher risk of metabolic deterioration.

CONCLUSIONS

MH status is a transient state, especially in late and middle adulthood. Individuals transitioning to an obese phenotype should receive attention for concomitant metabolic deterioration.

Trajectories of waist circumference during young adulthood and incident hypertension: the China Health and Nutrition Survey

Single measurements of waist circumference (WC) can predict the incident hypertension, while dynamic change patterns of WC during young adulthood and their association with the incidence of hypertension are poorly demonstrated. This study aimed to identify the longitudinal WC trajectories during young adulthood and explore their association with the risk of incident hypertension. We utilized the data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (1993-2015) and included 6604 participants aged 18-50 years with repeated WC measurements of 3-8 times and information on incident hypertension. The group-based trajectory model was used to identify WC trajectories. Cox proportional hazard model was conducted to evaluate the association of WC trajectories with the risk of incident hypertension. We identified four distinct WC trajectories during young adulthood. Participants with the low-increasing and the moderate-increasing trajectories had increasing but normal WC, while those with the high-increasing and the sharp-increasing trajectories developed from non-abdominal obesity to abdominal obesity. Compared with the low-increasing trajectory, the adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) were 1.48 (1.16-1.89), 2.50 (1.84-3.40), and 3.86 (2.40-6.21) for the moderate-increasing, the high-increasing, and the sharp-increasing trajectories, respectively. After further excluding participants with obesity at baseline, this association did not alter substantially. The gender-specific trajectory analyses yielded similar results. WC trajectories during young adulthood were significantly associated with the risk of incident hypertension in Chinese. Moreover, even the increasing WC trajectory within the normal range during young adulthood might increase the risk of hypertension.

Application of the 2017 American college of cardiology/American Heart Association Blood Pressure Guidelines for cardiovascular outcomes among Tehranian residents

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the associations of cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes with elevated blood pressure (BP), stage I of isolated systolic hypertension (ISH), isolated diastolic hypertension (IDH), and systolic diastolic hypertension (SDH), defined by 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines among the Tehranian adult population.

METHOD

We enrolled 7068 residents of Tehran (district No. 13) aged at least 30 years, who were free of CVD and not taking antihypertensive medications at baseline. Participants were categorized into eight categories: normal BP (reference group), elevated BP, stage I IDH, stage I ISH, stage I SDH, and all stage II phenotypes. Significant interactions were found between age groups (<60 versus ≥60 years) and BP categories (P value: 0.017); hence, the analysis was performed in each age group, separately. We used multivariable Cox proportional regression analysis to evaluate the association of different BP categories with incident CVD.

RESULTS

During 18 years of follow-up, 1053 CVD events occurred. In the younger group, stage I of IDH and SDH were associated with increased CVD risk with hazard ratios of 1.23 (95% confidence interval: 0.99-1.52) and 1.42 (1.04-1.94), respectively. In the older group, stage I of IDH had a lower risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) [hazard ratio 0.53 (0.29-0.96)]. As a sensitivity analysis, among high CVD risk individuals (10-year risk >10%), we found a higher risk for CVD among those with elevated BP and stage I of SDH. For individuals with 10-year risk less than 10%, all BP parameters, except stage I of IDH, were associated with increased CVD risk. Although there was no significant interaction between sex and BP categories, elevated BP and stage I of SDH significantly increased the risk of CVD only among men.

CONCLUSION

Age is an important potential modifier in the association between stage I of hypertension and CVD/CHD risk. Stage I of IDH was not an alarming status for CVD development, whether the participants had a high CVD risk or not.