Predicting the risk of death following coronary artery bypass graft made simple: a retrospective study using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database

Development and external validation of a novel score for predicting postoperative 30‑day mortality in tumor craniotomy patients: A cross‑sectional diagnostic study

The identification of patients with craniotomy at high risk for postoperative 30-day mortality may contribute to achieving targeted delivery of interventions. The present study aimed to develop a personalized nomogram and scoring system for predicting the risk of postoperative 30-day mortality in such patients. In this retrospective cross-sectional study, 18,642 patients with craniotomy were stratified into a training cohort (n=7,800; year of surgery, 2012-2013) and an external validation cohort (n=10,842; year of surgery, 2014-2015). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) model was used to select the most important variables among the candidate variables. Furthermore, a stepwise logistic regression model was established to screen out the risk factors based on the predictors chosen by the LASSO model. The model and a nomogram were constructed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and calibration plot analysis were used to assess the model's discrimination ability and accuracy. The associated risk factors were categorized according to clinical cutoff points to create a scoring model for postoperative 30-day mortality. The total score was divided into four risk categories: Extremely high, high, intermediate and low risk. The postoperative 30-day mortality rates were 2.43 and 2.58% in the training and validation cohort, respectively. A simple nomogram and scoring system were developed for predicting the risk of postoperative 30-day mortality according to the white blood cell count; hematocrit and blood urea nitrogen levels; age range; functional health status; and incidence of disseminated cancer cells. The ROC AUC of the nomogram was 0.795 (95% CI: 0.764 to 0.826) in the training cohort and it was 0.738 (95% CI: 0.7091 to 0.7674) in the validation cohort. The calibration demonstrated a perfect fit between the predicted 30-day mortality risk and the observed 30-day mortality risk. Low, intermediate, high and extremely high risk statuses for 30-day mortality were associated with total scores of (-1.5 to -1), (-0.5 to 0.5), (1 to 2) and (2.5 to 9), respectively. A personalized nomogram and scoring system for predicting postoperative 30-day mortality in adult patients who underwent craniotomy were developed and validated, and individuals at high risk of 30-day mortality were able to be identified.

Risk factors of in-hospital mortality for isolated on-pump coronary artery bypass graft surgery in the northeast of Iran from 2007 to 2016

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery is the most common cardiac surgery worldwide. The reported mortality rates for this operation vary greatly. We aimed to determine the risk factors of in-hospital mortality for isolated on-pump CABG surgery.

METHODS

This was a large-scale retrospective cohort study of two heart centers in Golestan province. Patients over the age of 18 from both genders who underwent isolated on-pump CABG procedures from 2007 to 2016 were included. The study outcome was in-hospital mortality, which was determined according to the clinical records of study patients.

RESULTS

A total of 3704 patients were included in the study, and 63% were men. In-hospital mortality occurred in 2.8% (n=103) of the patients. The median (IQR) age of survived and not-survived patients were 59 (53-65) and 62 (55-75) years, respectively. 44% of the mortalities occurred in patients older than 65, while 28% of the survivors were older than 65. Multivariable logistic regression indicated that emergency CABG (OR 4.52, 95% CI, 1.45, 14.02; P = 0.009) and cardiopulmonary bypass time (CPB) (OR 1.004, 95% CI 1.001, 1.008; P = 0.034) were the risk factors of in-hospital mortality. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of the model consisting of operative and preoperative variables was 0.70 (acceptable performance).

CONCLUSION

Our study revealed an acceptable mortality proportion for CABG surgeries conducted in the region. Emergency CABG and CPB time were the main risk factors for in-hospital mortality after CABG.

Single-blind, randomized study comparing clinical equivalence of trulene and prolene polypropylene sutures in elective primary coronary artery bypass graft surgery

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) is one of the principle therapies for coronary artery disease, as it improves survival rate and quality of life (QoL). Polypropylene suture is commonly used in vascular and cardiac surgeries for anastomosis due to its long-term tensile strength and minimal tissue trauma. This study compared the clinical equivalence of Trulene® (Healthium Medtech Limited) and Prolene® (Ethicon-Johnson & Johnson) polypropylene sutures regarding incidence of myocardial infarction, stroke, renal failure and cardiac death (MACCE) occurring up to 26 weeks' period post-CABG surgery.

METHODS

This multicenter, prospective, two-arm, parallel-group, randomized (1:1), single-blind study (n = 89) was conducted between August 2020 and September 2021. The primary endpoint, post-surgery cumulative incidence of MACCE was evaluated. In addition, anastomotic revision, surgical site infection (SSI), operative time, length of post-operative hospital stay, repeat revascularization, intraoperative suture handling characteristics, time taken to return to work and resume normal day to day activities, subject satisfaction score and QoL, and other adverse events were also recorded.

RESULTS

A total of 80 (89.89%) males and 9 (10.11%) females participated in the study. No incidence of MACCE was recorded in any of the study participants. Non-significant difference was observed in anastomotic revision, SSI, operative time, post-operative hospital stay, revascularization, return to work and normal day-to-day activities, subject satisfaction score and QoL, and intraoperative handling parameters (except ease of passage) between the treatment groups, Trulene® and Prolene®. Compared to screening visit, proportion of subjects with 'no problems' for each QoL dimension and the mean visual analogue scale increased with each subsequent follow-up visit.

CONCLUSION

Trulene® polypropylene suture is clinically equivalent to Prolene® polypropylene suture and is safe and effective for anastomosis construction in CABG surgery during a routine clinical procedure. Trial registration CTRI Registration No.: CTRI/2020/05/025157 (Registered on: 13/05/2020).

Early and Mid-Term Outcomes of Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting in Adults With Congenital Heart Disease

Atherosclerotic coronary artery disease (CAD) is well-studied in acquired cardiac diseases; however, little data exist regarding outcomes of adult congenital heart disease (ACHD) with CAD. This study examined patients who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) during repair of ACHD. This was a retrospective study of patients who underwent CABG for CAD concomitant with ACHD repair 1972-2021. Demographic information, ACHD diagnosis, surgical history, operative details, and outcomes were analyzed. Data are presented as median (interquartile range [IQR]). 157 patients were identified with a median age of 63 (IQR 17) years. Left anterior descending (LAD) was the predominant diseased artery (109 patients [69%]); of those 83 (76%) were treated with mammary artery. 90 (57.3%) patients had 1 bypass, 42 (26.7%) 2, 19 (12%) 3, and 6 (3.8%) had 4. There has been no early mortality since 1988. There was no long-term survival difference between the patients with LAD disease treated with mammary compared to vein (P = 0.68), but early mortality was higher in those treated with vein (10.3% vs 0%, P = 0.018). Late recurrent angina was found in 18 patients (12%) and recurrent CAD found in 17 patients (11%), with 16 patients (10%) requiring CAD reintervention. At most recent follow-up (7.2 [IQR 11.4] years), 101 (64.3%) patients were deceased at 10 (IQR 13.1) years after surgery. Surgical revascularization for CAD may be necessary during the treatment of ACHD, most commonly for LAD disease. Early mortality was low in recent decades. Continued surveillance for recurrent CAD is required.

Comparison of surgical invasiveness and morbidity of adult spinal deformity surgery to other major operations

BACKGROUND CONTEXT

Adult spinal deformity (ASD) surgeries are complex, involving long operative times and surgical morbidity. It is currently unclear how the invasiveness of ASD surgery compares to other major operations.

PURPOSE

To: (1) develop a quantitative score of surgical morbidity and invasiveness, and (2) compare this score between ASD surgery and other major operations.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective review of prospectively collected data.

PATIENT SAMPLE

A prospective surgical registry was used to identify all patients undergoing ASD surgery involving ≥ 7 segments. Seventeen additional procedures were included: coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), pancreatectomy, and esophagectomy, among others.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Perioperative factors (operative time, transfusions, ventilation) and complications were collected and combined with a previously validated Postoperative Morbidity Survey to create a Surgical Invasiveness and Morbidity Score (SIMS).

METHODS

Computed scores were compared across surgeries using Welch's t-test. Multiple linear regression modeling was used to compare the SIMS of major surgeries relative to ASD while controlling for patient demographics and comorbidities.

RESULTS

A total of 1,245,282 surgical patients were included, 4,656 of which underwent ASD surgery. After multiple regression modeling controlling for patient demographics and comorbidities, ASD surgery ranked fourth in SIMS. ASD surgery had a significantly greater SIMS than 13 other major procedures including 6th esophagectomy (adjusted mean difference=-0.05, 95%CI -0.01-0.09, p<.001), 8th pancreatectomy (-0.40, 0.37-0.44, p<.001), 11th craniotomy for tumor (-1.01, 0.98-1.04, p<.001), and 12th sacral chordoma resection (-1.31, 1.26-1.37, p<.001).

CONCLUSIONS

ASD surgery was associated with significantly greater SIMS than many other major operations, even when controlling for important perioperative factors. These data have implications for patient counseling, resource allocation, and informed consent.

Ensemble machine learning prediction and variable importance analysis of 5-year mortality after cardiac valve and CABG operations

Despite having a similar post-operative complication profile, cardiac valve operations are associated with a higher mortality rate compared to coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) operations. For long-term mortality, few predictors are known. In this study, we applied an ensemble machine learning (ML) algorithm to 88 routinely collected peri-operative variables to predict 5-year mortality after different types of cardiac operations. The Super Learner algorithm was trained using prospectively collected peri-operative data from 8241 patients who underwent cardiac valve, CABG and combined operations. Model performance and calibration were determined for all models, and variable importance analysis was conducted for all peri-operative parameters. Results showed that the predictive accuracy was the highest for solitary mitral (0.846 [95% CI 0.812–0.880]) and solitary aortic (0.838 [0.813–0.864]) valve operations, confirming that ensemble ML using routine data collected perioperatively can predict 5-year mortality after cardiac operations with high accuracy. Additionally, post-operative urea was identified as a novel and strong predictor of mortality for several types of operation, having a seemingly additive effect to better known risk factors such as age and postoperative creatinine.

Addition of biomarker panel improves prediction performance of American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) calculator for cardiac risk assessment of elderly patients preparing for major non-cardiac surgery: a pilot study

BACKGROUND

Number of elderly patients subjected to extensive surgical procedures in the presence of cardiovascular morbidities is increasing every year. Therefore, there is a need to make preoperative diagnostics more accurate.

AIMS

To evaluate the usefulness of American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) calculator as a predictive tool in preoperative assessment of cardiovascular risk in elderly patients.

METHODS

This prospective pilot study included 78 patients who were being prepared for extensive non-cardiac surgeries under general anaesthesia. Their data have been processed on the interactive ACS NSQIP calculator. Blood sampling has been performed 7 days prior to surgery, and serum has been separated. Clinical, novel, and experimental biomarkers [hsCRP, H-FABP, and Survivin (BIRC5)] have been measured in specialized laboratories.

RESULTS

Mean age of included patients was 71.35 ± 6.89 years. In the case of heart complications and mortality prediction, hsCRP and ACS NSQIP showed the highest specificity and sensitivity with AUC, respectively, 0.869 and 0.813 for heart complications and 0.883 and 0.813 for mortality. When combined with individual biomarkers AUC of ACS NSQIP raised, but if we combined all three biomarkers with ACS NSQIP, AUC reached as much as 0.920 for heart complications and 0.939 for mortality.

DISCUSSION

ACS NSQIP proved to reduce inaccuracy in preoperative assessment, but it cannot be used independently, which has already been proved by other authors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that ACS NSQIP represents an accurate tool for preoperative assessment of elderly patients, especially if combined with cardiac biomarkers.

Comparing early and delayed repair of common bile duct injury to identify clinical drivers of outcome and morbidity

BACKGROUND

Outcomes following repair of common bile duct injury (CBDI) are influenced by center and surgeon experience. Determinants of morbidity related to timing of repair are not fully described in this population.

METHODS

Patients with CBDI managed surgically at a single center from January 2008 to June 2015 were retrospectively reviewed. Outcomes of patients undergoing early (≤48 h from injury) and delayed (>48 h) repair were compared. Predictive modeling for readmission was performed for patients undergoing delayed repair.

RESULTS

In total, 61 patients underwent surgical biliary reconstruction. Between the early and delayed repair groups, no differences were found in patient demographics, injury classification subtype, vasculobiliary injury (VBI) incidence, hospital length of stay, 30-day readmission rate, or 90-day mortality rate. Patients undergoing delayed repair exhibited increased chance of readmission if VBI was present or if multiple endoscopic procedures were performed prior to repair. A predictive model was constructed with these variables (ROC 0.681).

CONCLUSION

When managed by a tertiary hepatopancreatobiliary center, equivalent outcomes can be realized for patients undergoing early and delayed repair of CBDI. Establishment of evidence-based consensus guidelines for evaluation and treatment of CBDI may allow identification of factors that drive morbidity and predict clinical outcomes in this population.

Ten-Year Outcomes After Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting According to Age in Patients With Heart Failure and Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction: An Analysis of the Extended Follow-Up of the STICH Trial (Surgical Treatment for Ischemic Heart Failure)

BACKGROUND

Advancing age is associated with a greater prevalence of coronary artery disease in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction and with a higher risk of complications after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Whether the efficacy of CABG compared with medical therapy (MED) in patients with heart failure caused by ischemic cardiomyopathy is the same in patients of different ages is unknown.

METHODS

A total of 1212 patients (median follow-up, 9.8 years) with ejection fraction ≤35% and coronary disease amenable to CABG were randomized to CABG or MED in the STICH trial (Surgical Treatment for Ischemic Heart Failure).

RESULTS

Mean age at trial entry was 60 years; 12% were women; 36% were nonwhite; and the baseline ejection fraction was 28%. For the present analyses, patients were categorized by age quartiles: quartile 1, ≤54 years; quartile, 2 >54 and ≤60 years; quartile 3, >60 and ≤67 years; and quartile 4, >67 years. Older versus younger patients had more comorbidities. All-cause mortality was higher in older compared with younger patients assigned to MED (79% versus 60% for quartiles 4 and 1, respectively; log-rank P=0.005) and CABG (68% versus 48% for quartiles 4 and 1, respectively; log-rank P<0.001). In contrast, cardiovascular mortality was not statistically significantly different across the spectrum of age in the MED group (53% versus 49% for quartiles 4 and 1, respectively; log-rank P=0.388) or CABG group (39% versus 35% for quartiles 4 and 1, respectively; log-rank P=0.103). Cardiovascular deaths accounted for a greater proportion of deaths in the youngest versus oldest quartile (79% versus 62%). The effect of CABG versus MED on all-cause mortality tended to diminish with increasing age (P_interaction=0.062), whereas the benefit of CABG on cardiovascular mortality was consistent over all ages (P_interaction=0.307). There was a greater reduction in all-cause mortality or cardiovascular hospitalization with CABG versus MED in younger compared with older patients (P_interaction=0.004). In the CABG group, cardiopulmonary bypass time or days in intensive care did not differ for older versus younger patients.

CONCLUSIONS

CABG added to MED has a more substantial benefit on all-cause mortality and the combination of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular hospitalization in younger compared with older patients. CABG added to MED has a consistent beneficial effect on cardiovascular mortality regardless of age.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00023595.