Habitat suitability modelling to assess the introductions of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Netherlands

Blessing and curse of bioclimatic variables: A comparison of different calculation schemes and datasets for species distribution modeling within the extended Mediterranean area

Bioclimatic variables (BCVs) are the most widely used predictors within the field of species distribution modeling, but recent studies imply that BCVs alone are not sufficient to describe these limits. Unfortunately, the most popular database, WorldClim, offers only a limited selection of bioclimatological predictors; thus, other climatological datasets should be considered, and, for data consistency, the BCVs should also be derived from the respective datasets. Here, we investigate how well the BCVs are represented by different datasets for the extended Mediterranean area within the period 1970-2020, how different calculation schemes affect the representation of BCVs, and how deviations among the datasets differ regionally. We consider different calculation schemes for quarters/months, the annual mean temperature (BCV-1), and the maximum temperature of the warmest month (BCV-5). Additionally, we analyzed the effect of different temporal resolutions for BCV-1 and BCV-5. Differences resulting from different calculation schemes are presented for ERA5-Land. Selected BCVs are analyzed to show differences between WorldClim, ERA5-Land, E-OBS, and CRU. Our results show that (a) differences between the two calculation schemes for BCV-1 diminish as the temporal resolution decreases, while the differences for BCV-5 increase; (b) with respect to the definition of the respective month/quarter, intra-annual shifts induced by the calculation schemes can have substantially different effects on the BCVs; (c) all datasets represent the different BCVs similarly, but with partly large differences in some subregions; and (d) the largest differences occur when specific month/quarters are defined by precipitation. In summary, (a) since the definition of BCVs matches different calculation schemes, transparent communication of the BCVs calculation schemes is required; (b) the calculation, integration, or elimination of BCVs has to be examined carefully for each dataset, region, period, or species; and (c) the evaluated datasets provide, except in some areas, a consistent representation of BCVs within the extended Mediterranean region.

Trends in mosquito species distribution modeling: insights for vector surveillance and disease control

Species distribution modeling (SDM) has become an increasingly common approach to explore questions about ecology, geography, outbreak risk, and global change as they relate to infectious disease vectors. Here, we conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature, screening 563 abstracts and identifying 204 studies that used SDMs to produce distribution estimates for mosquito species. While the number of studies employing SDM methods has increased markedly over the past decade, the overwhelming majority used a single method (maximum entropy modeling; MaxEnt) and focused on human infectious disease vectors or their close relatives. The majority of regional models were developed for areas in Africa and Asia, while more localized modeling efforts were most common for North America and Europe. Findings from this study highlight gaps in taxonomic, geographic, and methodological foci of current SDM literature for mosquitoes that can guide future efforts to study the geography of mosquito-borne disease risk.

An ecological assessment of the potential pandemic threat of Dengue Virus in Zhejiang province of China

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Dengue fever, transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, is a significant public health concern in tropical and subtropical regions. With the end of the COVID-19 pandemic and the reopening of the borders, dengue fever remains a threat to mainland China, Zhejiang province of China is facing a huge risk of importing the dengue virus. This study aims to analyze and predict the current and future potential risk regions for Aedes vectors distribution and dengue prevalence in Zhejiang province of China.

METHOD

We collected occurrence records of DENV and DENV vectors globally from 2010 to 2022, along with historical and future climate data and human population density data. In order to predict the probability of DENV distribution in Zhejiang province of China under future conditions, the ecological niche of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus was first performed with historical climate data based on MaxEnt. Then, predicted results along with a set of bioclimatic variables, elevation and human population density were included in MaxEnt model to analyze the risk region of DENV in Zhejiang province. Finally, the established model was utilized to predict the spatial pattern of DENV risk in the current and future scenarios in Zhejiang province of China.

RESULTS

Our findings indicated that approximately 89.2% (90,805.6 KM²) of Zhejiang province of China is under risk, within about 8.0% (8,144 KM²) classified as high risk area for DENV prevalence. Ae. albopictus were identified as the primary factor influencing the distribution of DENV. Future predictions suggest that sustainable and "green" development pathways may increase the risk of DENV prevalence in Zhejiang province of China. Conversely, Fossil-fueled development pathways may reduce the risk due to the unsuitable environment for vectors.

CONCLUSIONS

The implications of this research highlight the need for effective vector control measures, community engagement, health education, and environmental initiatives to mitigate the potential spread of dengue fever in high-risk regions of Zhejiang province of China.

Machine Learning Modeling of Aedes albopictus Habitat Suitability in the 21st Century

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is an important vector of arboviruses that cause diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, and zika. The vector is highly invasive and adapted to survive in temperate northern territories outside its native tropical and sub-tropical range. Climate and socio-economic change are expected to facilitate its range expansion and exacerbate the global vector-borne disease burden. To project shifts in the global habitat suitability of the vector, we developed an ensemble machine learning model, incorporating a combination of a Random Forest and XGBoost binary classifiers, trained with a global collection of vector surveillance data and an extensive set of climate and environmental constraints. We demonstrate the reliable performance and wide applicability of the ensemble model in comparison to the known global presence of the vector, and project that suitable habitats will expand globally, most significantly in the northern hemisphere, putting at least an additional billion people at risk of vector-borne diseases by the middle of the 21st century. We project several highly populated areas of the world will be suitable for Ae. albopictus populations, such as the northern parts of the USA, Europe, and India by the end of the century, which highlights the need for coordinated preventive surveillance efforts of potential entry points by local authorities and stakeholders.

Winter survival of adults of two geographically distant populations of Aedes albopictus in a microclimatic environment of Athens, Greece

Overwintering capacity is a major step towards establishment of invasive mosquitoes from the tropics in temperate zone areas and one of the main elements determining next seasons' population size that regulates disease transmission of competent invasive vector species. The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culiciidae) is an aggressive invasive species that has greatly expanded its geographical boundaries over the last few decades. The species' ability to induce photoperiodic-based egg diapause allows its overwintering in temperate regions, which favors its establishment in higher latitudes. In warmer temperate areas winter survival can be accomplished in the adult stage as well especially in human-made shelters. Aedes albopictus is already showing signs of adaptation to colder climates which may result in disease transmission in new areas. Although the Asian tiger mosquito has invaded Greece since 2003-4, little is known regarding its overwintering capacity in the country, especially as far as adults are regarded. We studied the survival of Ae. albopictus adults during winter in a protected shelter in Athens, the capital city of Greece. The study involved two geographically isolated populations originating from Chania (Crete, most southern part of Greece), and Palaio Faliro (Athens, Central Greece). We exposed different cohorts of F3 adults of the above two populations that emerged from field collected eggs to "winter condition" from November 2018 to beginning of January 2019. in a protected microclimatic environment. Adult mortality was recorded systematically until the death of the last individual in the cohort. Results demonstrated evidence of winter survival of adults for both populations. Longevity of both females and males of the Palaio Faliro population was longer than that of the Chania population for almost all installation dates. Survival curves, regardless of the date of installation, were steeper for females of the Chania population compared to those from Palaio Faliro. In conclusion, overwinter survival of both populations in the adult stage highlights the need for future studies, considering local and microclimatic condition that vary significantly between regions. Winter climatic conditions play vital role in adult survival of this highly important public health species concerning distribution limits and knowledge on winter survival of Ae. albopictus transmitted viruses.

From a long-distance threat to the invasion front: a review of the invasive Aedes mosquito species in Belgium between 2007 and 2020

Invasive mosquito species (IMS) and their associated mosquito-borne diseases are emerging in Europe. In Belgium, the first detection of Aedes albopictus (Skuse 1894) occurred in 2000 and of Aedes japonicus japonicus (Theobald 1901) in 2002. Early detection and control of these IMS at points of entry (PoEs) are of paramount importance to slow down any possible establishment. This article reviews the introductions and establishments recorded of three IMS in Belgium based on published (2007–2014) and unpublished (2015–2020) data collected during several surveillance projects. In total, 52 PoEs were monitored at least once for the presence of IMS between 2007 and 2020. These included used tyre and lucky bamboo import companies, airports, ports, parking lots along highways, shelters for imported cutting plants, wholesale markets, industrial areas, recycling areas, cemeteries and an allotment garden at the country border with colonised areas. In general, monitoring was performed between April and November. Mosquitoes were captured with adult and oviposition traps as well as by larval sampling. Aedes albopictus was detected at ten PoEs, Ae. japonicus at three PoEs and Aedes koreicus (Edwards 1917) at two PoEs. The latter two species have established overwintering populations. The percentage of PoEs positive for Ae. albopictus increased significantly over years. Aedes albopictus is currently entering Belgium through lucky bamboo and used tyre trade and passive ground transport, while Ae. japonicus through used tyre trade and probably passive ground transport. In Belgium, the import through passive ground transport was first recorded in 2018 and its importance seems to be growing. Belgium is currently at the invasion front of Ae. albopictus and Ae. japonicus. The surveillance and control management actions at well-known PoEs associated to long-distance introductions are more straightforward than at less-defined PoEs associated with short-distance introductions from colonised areas. These latter PoEs represent a new challenge for IMS management in Belgium in the coming years. Aedes albopictus is expected to become established in Belgium in the coming years, hence increasing the likelihood of local arbovirus transmission. The implementation of a sustainable, structured and long-term IMS management programme, integrating active and passive entomological surveillance, vector control and Public Health surveillance is therefore pivotal.

Utilizing citizen science to model the distribution of Aedes aegypti in West Africa

In the rapidly urbanizing region of West Africa, Aedes mosquitoes pose an emerging threat of infectious disease that is compounded by limited vector surveillance. Citizen science has been proposed as a way to fill surveillance gaps by training local residents to collect and share information on disease vectors. Understanding the distribution of arbovirus vectors in West Africa can inform researchers and public health officials on where to conduct disease surveillance and focus public health interventions. We utilized citizen science data collected through NASA's GLOBE Observer mobile phone application and data from a previously published literature review on Aedes mosquito distribution to examine the contribution of citizen science to understanding the distribution of Ae. aegypti in West Africa using Maximum Entropy modeling. Combining citizen science and literature-derived observations improved the fit of the model compared to models created by each data source alone but did not alleviate location bias within the models, likely due to lack of widespread observations. Understanding Ae. aegypti distribution will require greater investment in Aedes mosquito surveillance in the region, and citizen science should be utilized as a tool in this mission to increase the reach of surveillance.

West Nile virus in Spain: Forecasting the geographical distribution of risky areas with an ecological niche modelling approach

West Nile virus (WNV), a well-known emerging vector-borne arbovirus with a zoonotic life cycle, represents a threat to both public and animal health. Transmitted by ornithophilic mosquitoes, its transmission is difficult to predict and even more difficult to prevent. The massive and unprecedented number of human cases and equid outbreaks in Spain during 2020 interpellates for new approaches. For the first time, we present an integrate analysis from a niche perspective to provide an insight to the situation of West Nile disease (WND) in Spain. Our modelling approach benefits from the combined use of global occurrence records of outbreaks of WND in equids and of its two alleged main vectors in Spain, Culex pipiens and Cx. perexiguus. Maps of the climatic suitability for the presence of the two vectors species and for the circulation of WNV are provided. The main outcome of our study is a map delineating the areas under certain climatic risk of transmission. Our analyses indicate that the climatic risk of transmission of WND is medium in areas nearby the south Atlantic coastal area of the Cadiz Gulf and the Mediterranean coast, and high in southwestern Spain. The higher risk of transmission in the basins of the rivers Guadiana and Guadalquivir cannot be attributed exclusively to the local abundance of Cx. pipiens, but could be ascribed to the presence and abundance of Cx. perexiguus. Furthermore, this integrated analysis suggests that the WNV presents an ecological niche of its own, not fully overlapping the ones of its hosts or vector, and thus requiring particular environmental conditions to succeed in its infection cycle.

Potential for online crowdsourced biological recording data to complement surveillance for arthropod vectors

Voluntary contributions by citizen scientists can gather large datasets covering wide geographical areas, and are increasingly utilized by researchers for multiple applications, including arthropod vector surveillance. Online platforms such as iNaturalist accumulate crowdsourced biological observations from around the world and these data could also be useful for monitoring vectors. The aim of this study was to explore the availability of observations of important vector taxa on the iNaturalist platform and examine the utility of these data to complement existing vector surveillance activities. Of ten vector taxa investigated, records were most numerous for mosquitoes (Culicidae; 23,018 records, 222 species) and ticks (Ixodida; 16,214 records, 87 species), with most data from 2019–2020. Case studies were performed to assess whether images associated with records were of sufficient quality to identify species and compare iNaturalist observations of vector species to the known situation at the state, national and regional level based on existing published data. Firstly, tick data collected at the national (United Kingdom) or state (Minnesota, USA) level were sufficient to determine seasonal occurrence and distribution patterns of important tick species, and were able to corroborate and complement known trends in tick distribution. Importantly, tick species with expanding distributions (Haemaphysalis punctata in the UK, and Amblyomma americanum in Minnesota) were also detected. Secondly, using iNaturalist data to monitor expanding tick species in Europe (Hyalomma spp.) and the USA (Haemaphysalis longicornis), and invasive Aedes mosquitoes in Europe, showed potential for tracking these species within their known range as well as identifying possible areas of expansion. Despite known limitations associated with crowdsourced data, this study shows that iNaturalist can be a valuable source of information on vector distribution and seasonality that could be used to supplement existing vector surveillance data, especially at a time when many surveillance programs may have been interrupted by COVID-19 restrictions.

Detection of Exotic Mosquito Species (Diptera: Culicidae) at International Airports in Europe

In Europe, the air-borne accidental introduction of exotic mosquito species (EMS) has been demonstrated using mosquito surveillance schemes at Schiphol International Airport (Amsterdam, The Netherlands). Based upon these findings and given the increasing volume of air transport movements per year, the establishment of EMS after introduction via aircraft is being considered a potential risk. Here we present the airport surveillance results performed by the Centre for Monitoring of Vectors of the Netherlands, by the Monitoring of Exotic Mosquitoes (MEMO) project in Belgium, and by the Public Health England project on invasive mosquito surveillance. The findings of our study demonstrate the aircraft mediated transport of EMS into Europe from a wide range of possible areas in the world. Results show accidental introductions of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as well as exotic Anopheles and Mansonia specimens. The findings of Ae. albopictus at Schiphol airport are the first evidence of accidental introduction of the species using this pathway in Europe. Furthermore, our results stress the importance of the use of molecular tools to validate the morphology-based species identifications. We recommend monitoring of EMS at airports with special attention to locations with a high movement of cargo and passengers.