Nomogram for predicting the risk of local recurrence after breast-conserving surgery for ductal carcinoma in situ

Nomogram for Predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-Year Survival in Hemodynamically Significant Aortic Regurgitation: The ARISE Score

BACKGROUND

A user-friendly tool that integrates key clinical variables to estimate prognosis in aortic regurgitation is lacking. We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram-based score to predict survival and identify high-risk patients for timely aortic valve surgery referral.

METHODS AND RESULTS

From 2008 to 2022, 1229 patients (derivation data set: 764 Taiwanese; validation data set: 465 Japanese; age: 64±17 years) with isolated chronic moderately severe to severe aortic regurgitation from 3 centers were included. All echocardiograms were reviewed de novo. At a median follow-up of 5.0 (interquartile range, 2.2-8.2) years, 204 all-cause deaths occurred and 247 underwent aortic valve surgery within 3 months. In multivariable analysis, age (P<0.001), Charlson Comorbidity Index (P<0.001), New York Heart Association functional class IV (P<0.001), left ventricular ejection fraction (P<0.001), left ventricular end-systolic dimension index (P=0.03), and aortic valve surgery in 3 months (P=0.03) were associated with all-cause death. These variables, along with sex and maximal aorta diameter index, were incorporated into the combined left ventricular ejection fraction and left ventricular end-systolic dimension index nomogram to estimate 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival and to calculate the Aortic Regurgitation/Insufficiency Survival Estimation (ARISE) score. Calibration plots demonstrated good performance, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve reaching 0.79 in the validation data set. The left ventricular end-systolic dimension index-based nomogram showed similar performance. By using the tertiles of the ARISE score to risk stratify individuals, Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrated significant survival differences among 3 risk groups in both the derivation and validation cohorts (P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The ARISE score (https://arise-score.vercel.app/), which includes guideline-recommended parameters, effectively predicts survival in patients with aortic regurgitation. It may facilitate shared decision-making between the heart team and patients.

Expert Panel on Breast Imaging, Kuzmiak CM, Sharpe RE, Lewin AA, Weinstein SP, Blinder V, Dibble EH, Dodelzon K, Dogan BE, Paulis LV, Plichta JK, Salkowski LR, Sattari M, Scheel JR, Slanetz PJ. ACR Appropriateness Criteria® Imaging of Ductal Carcinoma in Situ (DCIS)

Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) accounts for approximately 20% of diagnosed breast cancer. It is important to understand which imaging studies are appropriate in patients with a new diagnosis or history of DCIS. Initial imaging for a new diagnosis of DCIS, consists of diagnostic mammography and/or tomosynthesis, whereas breast ultrasound and breast MRI may be appropriate as complementary examinations. Routine surveillance with annual mammography and/or tomosynthesis is recommended to detect an in-breast recurrence or a new primary breast cancer in women who have completed breast conservation therapy for DCIS, and breast MRI may be appropriate. Advanced technologies such as contrast mammography or molecular breast imaging are usually not appropriate. In a patient with a history of mastectomy for DCIS, routine surveillance for ipsilateral recurrence with imaging is usually not appropriate. There is no role for imaging of the axilla in patients with known DCIS with or without microinvasion. The American College of Radiology Appropriateness Criteria are evidence-based guidelines for specific clinical conditions that are reviewed annually by a multidisciplinary expert panel. The guideline development and revision process support the systematic analysis of the medical literature from peer reviewed journals. Established methodology principles such as Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation or GRADE are adapted to evaluate the evidence. The RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method User Manual provides the methodology to determine the appropriateness of imaging and treatment procedures for specific clinical scenarios. In those instances where peer reviewed literature is lacking or equivocal, experts may be the primary evidentiary source available to formulate a recommendation.

Breast cancer PAINT: a first-in-human, dose-escalation study to determine the safety of Plasma Adjuvant INtra-operative Treatment in breast cancer patients

BACKGROUND

Non-thermal plasma (NTP) refers to an ionized gas composed of ions, electrons and other reactive agents. The anticancer properties of NTP have been proven in vitro and in vivo. The 10-year local recurrence risk (LRR) in breast cancer patients after breast conservation therapy (i.e., lumpectomy, typically followed by radiation therapy) is still as high as 15-20%. NTP could be used to further treat the tumor bed to reduce the LRR.

METHODS

Our primary objective is to determine the safe and tolerable dose of NTP treatment following breast cancer lumpectomy. Our secondary objectives are to assess the safety and tolerability of NTP and to assess the cosmetic effects of NTP treatment in patients with breast cancer. Our exploratory objective is to assess the impact of NTP treatment on cancerous and normal tissues. Patients are followed for up to 3 months after NTP treatment. The patients are divided into 3 groups: group A (n = 3): NTP treatment of part of the tumor bed ex vivo. Group B (n = 3): NTP treatment of part of the tumor bed in situ (all treated tissues are removed for analysis). Group C (n = 6-24): dose escalation per "3 + 3 Design" up to a maximum dose level of 3. NTP treatment of part of the tumor bed in situ (the treated parts of the tumor bed will not be excised, except for a small portion for analysis).

DISCUSSION

The safety and tolerability of treatment will be evaluated by means of dose-limiting toxicity, adverse event (AE) and serious adverse event reports; physical examinations; and laboratory safety evaluations. AEs will be coded according to CTCAE v5.0. The results will be tabulated to examine their frequency, grade, and relationship to the study treatment. The results of laboratory assessments will be evaluated similarly. The number of patients with cosmetic alterations linked to NTP treatment and the type of alteration will be assessed through quality of life questionnaires (questions about breast appearance and texture) and through photo collection. This is the first clinical trial to study the safety and tolerability of NTP in an all-breast cancer patient cohort.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Name of the registry: ClinicalTrials.gov.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT06222788. Date of registration: 01/15/2024. URL of trial registry record: https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06222788 .

A 7-Gene Biosignature for Ductal Carcinoma in situ of the Breast Identifies Subpopulations of HER2-positive Patients With Distinct Recurrence Rates After Breast-Conserving Surgery and Radiation Therapy

PURPOSE

A subpopulation of women with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains at risk for in-breast recurrence (IBR) following breast-conserving surgery (BCS) and radiation therapy (RT). The NSABP B-43 trial evaluated the role of concurrent RT and trastuzumab in patients with HER2-positive DCIS but did not reach the prespecified endpoint. We hypothesized that a 7-gene biosignature (DCISionRT) with its Residual Risk subtype (RRt) could identify 2 groups of HER2(3+) patients with significantly different IBR risks after BCS plus RT.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

All patients with HER2(3+) DCIS (n = 178) treated with BCS plus RT were selected from a combined multinational patient cohort. Treatment decisions were neither randomized nor strictly rules-based. Biosignature testing was performed on all patients and stratified with previously defined groups: (1) Combined Low Risk group (DS ≤ 2.8) and Elevated Risk group (DS > 2.8) without RRt or (2) Residual Risk subtype. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to compute IBR curves.

RESULTS

Sixty-three percent of HER2(3+) patients (113/178) were classified into the Residual Risk subtype. These patients had significantly higher 10-year rates of IBR compared to the nonresidual risk group (16.2% vs. 1.6%, P = .01). The Residual Risk subtype had more nuclear grade 3 disease (87% vs. 63%, P < .001), but age, size, and grade were not associated with IBR rate (P = NS) on univariate and multivariable analysis. Only the Residual Risk group was associated with IBR (P = .05) in multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSION

The 7-gene biosignature with RRt identified a subset of HER2(3+) patients with greater IBR rates following BCS and RT beyond traditional clinical and pathologic features. Consideration of therapies to reduce these elevated IBR rates should be evaluated, including the incorporation of HER2-targeted therapy.

A Nomogram Using Imaging Features to Predict Ipsilateral Breast Tumor Recurrence After Breast-Conserving Surgery for Ductal Carcinoma In Situ

OBJECTIVE

To develop a nomogram that integrates clinical-pathologic and imaging variables to predict ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR) in women with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) treated with breast-conserving surgery (BCS).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective study included consecutive women with DCIS who underwent BCS at two hospitals. Patients who underwent BCS between 2003 and 2016 in one hospital and between 2005 and 2013 in another were classified into development and validation cohorts, respectively. Twelve clinical-pathologic variables (age, family history, initial presentation, nuclear grade, necrosis, margin width, number of excisions, DCIS size, estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, radiation therapy, and endocrine therapy) and six mammography and ultrasound variables (breast density, detection modality, mammography and ultrasound patterns, morphology and distribution of calcifications) were analyzed. A nomogram for predicting 10-year IBTR probabilities was constructed using the variables associated with IBTR identified from the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis in the development cohort. The performance of the developed nomogram was evaluated in the external validation cohort using a calibration plot and 10-year area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and compared with the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) nomogram.

RESULTS

The development cohort included 702 women (median age [interquartile range], 50 [44-56] years), of whom 30 (4%) women experienced IBTR. The validation cohort included 182 women (48 [43-54] years), 18 (10%) of whom developed IBTR. A nomogram was constructed using three clinical-pathologic variables (age, margin, and use of adjuvant radiation therapy) and two mammographic variables (breast density and calcification morphology). The nomogram was appropriately calibrated and demonstrated a comparable 10-year AUROC to the MSKCC nomogram (0.73 vs. 0.66, P = 0.534) in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

Our nomogram provided individualized risk estimates for women with DCIS treated with BCS, demonstrating a discriminative ability comparable to that of the MSKCC nomogram.

Molecular Expression Assays Improve the Prediction of Local and Invasive Local Recurrence After Breast-Conserving Surgery for Ductal Carcinoma In Situ

PURPOSE

Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is routinely treated with adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) after breast-conserving surgery (BCS). The inability to accurately estimate an individual's risk of local recurrence (LR) and invasive LR using clinicopathologic factors (CPF) contributes to the overtreatment of DCIS. We examined the impact of the 12-gene DCIS Score (DS) and the 21-gene Recurrence Score (RS) on the accuracy of predicting LR and invasive LR.

METHODS

A population-based cohort diagnosed with pure DCIS treated with BCS ± RT from 1994 to 2003 was used. All patients had expert pathology review and assessment of the DS and RS. Predictive models (CPF alone, DS + CPF, and RS + CPF) were developed using multivariable Cox regression analyses to predict 10-year LR and invasive LR risks. Models were evaluated on the basis of c-statistic, -2log likelihood estimate (-2LLE), and Akaike information criterion. Calibration was performed using bootstrap resamples, with replacement.

RESULTS

The cohort includes 1,226 women treated with BCS; 712 received RT. 194 women (15.8%) experienced ipsilateral LR as a first event; 112 were invasive. Models including the DS or RS performed better in predicting the 10-year risk of LR compared with models on the basis of CPF alone with excellent calibration. The two molecular-based models also performed better in predicting invasive LR compared with the CPF model but the model incorporating the RS did not perform better in the prediction of invasive LR compared with the DS-based model.

CONCLUSION

Models incorporating the DS or RS more accurately predicted the 10-year risk of LR and invasive LR after BCS compared with models on the basis of CPF alone. Inclusion of the RS, compared with DS, did not improve the prediction of the 10-year risk of invasive LR.

Ductal Carcinoma In Situ

In breast cancer (BC) pathogenesis models, normal cells acquire somatic mutations and there is a stepwise progression from high-risk lesions and ductal carcinoma in situ to invasive cancer. The precancer biology of mammary tissue warrants better characterization to understand how different BC subtypes emerge. Primary methods for BC prevention or risk reduction include lifestyle changes, surgery, and chemoprevention. Surgical intervention for BC prevention involves risk-reducing prophylactic mastectomy, typically performed either synchronously with the treatment of a primary tumor or as a bilateral procedure in high-risk women. Chemoprevention with endocrine therapy carries adherence-limiting toxicity.

Nomogram for predicting survival of patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma

The international prognostic index (IPI) system has been widely used to predict prognosis in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). However, this system categorizes DLBCL patients into four risk groups, and cannot optimize individualized prognosis. In addition, other clinicopathological factors, such as molecular aberrations, are not incorporated into the system. To partly overcome these weak points, we developed nomograms to predict individual patient survival. We also incorporated MYD88L265P and CD79BY196 mutations into the nomograms since these mutations are associated with a worse prognosis and their signaling pathways have been highlighted as a therapeutic target. We analyzed 302 DLBCL cases for which multivariate analysis by Cox proportional hazard regression was performed. Nomograms for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were constructed and assessed by a concordance index (C-index). The nomograms were also evaluated using an open external dataset (n = 187). The MYD88L265P and/or CD79BY196 (MYD88/CD79B) mutation was detected in 62/302 patients. The nomograms incorporating IPI factors exhibited a C-index of 0.738 for PFS and a C-index of 0.765 for OS. The nomograms incorporating IPI factors and the MYD88/CD79B mutation showed a C-index of 0.745 for PFS and a C-index of 0.769 for OS. The nomograms we created were evaluated using an external dataset and were well validated. The present nomograms incorporating IPI factors and the MYD88/CD79B mutation have sufficient discrimination ability, and may effectively predict prognosis in DLBCL patients. The prognostic models we have presented here may help clinicians personalize prognostic assessments and clinical decisions.

Update on Management of Ductal Carcinoma in Situ

Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) represents 18% to 25% of all diagnosed breast cancers, and is a noninvasive, nonobligate precursor lesion to invasive cancer. The diagnosis of DCIS represents a wide range of disease, including lesions with both low and high risk of progression to invasive cancer and recurrence. Over the past decade, research on the topic of DCIS has focused on the possibility of tailoring treatment for patients according to their risk for progression and recurrence, which is based on clinicopathologic, biomolecular and genetic factors. These efforts are ongoing, with recently completed and continuing clinical trials spanning the continuum of cancer care. We conducted a review to identify recent advances on the topic of diagnosis, risk stratification and management of DCIS. While novel imaging techniques have increased the rate of DCIS diagnosis, questions persist regarding the optimal management of lesions that would not be identified with conventional methods. Additionally, among trials investigating the potential for omission of surgery and use of active surveillance, 2 trials have completed accrual and 2 clinical trials are continuing to enroll patients. Identification of novel genetic patterns is expanding our potential for risk stratification and aiding our ability to de-escalate radiation and systemic therapies for DCIS. These advances provide hope for tailoring of DCIS treatment in the near future.

Expression of immune-related genes and breast cancer recurrence in women with ductal carcinoma in situ

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is a non-obligate precursor of invasive breast cancer with highly variable clinical behavior, but risk stratification is still challenging. We sought to identify immune-related gene expression signatures of pure DCIS associated with different risks of breast cancer recurrence.

METHODS

A retrospective nested case-control study of 143 pure DCIS was performed including 70 women with subsequent ipsilateral breast event (IBE, in situ or invasive; cases) and 73 DCIS women with no IBE and matched for age, tumor size, treatment, hormone receptors/HER2 status, and follow-up time (controls). RNA was extracted from DCIS samples and subjected to next-generation sequencing gene expression analysis of 395 immune-related genes. Correlations between DCIS immune-related gene expression and IBE were analyzed using weighted Cox regression for nested case-control data.

RESULTS

Eight immune-related genes were differentially expressed between cases and controls. MAGEA10 expression (present vs. absent) and high expression levels of IFNA17 and CBLB (Q4 vs. Q1) were observed more frequently in DCIS of women with subsequent IBE, mainly invasive (p-valueFDR < 0.05). Conversely, expression of IL3RA1, TAGAP, TNFAIP8, and high expression levels of CCL2 and LRP1 were associated with a lower risk of IBE (p-valueFDR < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

This exploratory analysis of pure DCIS showed significant differences in immune-related gene expression profiles between women with and with no subsequent IBE, particularly as invasive IBE. These results, after additional validation, could improve risk stratification and management of DCIS patients.

Distinguishing optimal candidates for primary tumor resection in patients with metastatic lung adenocarcinoma: A predictive model based on propensity score matching

Background

Primary tumor resection is associated with survival benefits in patients with metastatic lung adenocarcinoma (mLUAD). However, there are no established methods to determine which individuals would benefit from surgery. Therefore, we developed a model to predict the patients who are likely to benefit from surgery in terms of survival.

Methods

Data on patients with mLUAD were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Depending on whether surgery was performed on the primary tumor, patients were categorized into two groups: cancer-directed surgery (CDS) and no-cancer-directed surgery (No-CDS). Propensity Score Matching (PSM) was utilized to address bias between the CDS and No-CDS groups. The prognostic impact of CDS was assessed using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazard models. Subsequently, we constructed a nomogram to predict the potential for surgical benefits based on multivariable logistic regression analysis using preoperative factors.

Results

A total of 89,039 eligible patients were identified, including 6.4% (5705) who underwent surgery. Following PSM, the CDS group demonstrated a significantly longer median overall survival (mOS) compared with the No-CDS group (23 [21-25] vs. 7 [7-8] months; P < 0.001). The nomogram showed robust performance in both the training and validation sets (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.698 and 0.717, respectively), and the calibration curves exhibited high consistency. The nomogram proved clinically valuable according to decision curve analysis (DCA). According to this nomogram, surgical patients were categorized into two groups: no-benefit candidates and benefit candidates groups. Compared with the no-benefit candidate group, the benefit candidate group was associated with longer survival (mOS: 25 vs. 6 months, P < 0.001). Furthermore, no difference in survival was observed between the no-benefit candidates and the no-surgery groups (mOS: 6 vs. 7 months, P = 0.9).

Conclusions

A practical nomogram was developed to identify optimal CDS candidates among patients with mLUAD.

Tools to Guide Radiation Oncologists in the Management of DCIS

Similar to invasive breast cancer, ductal carcinoma in situ is also going through a phase of changes not only from a technical but also a conceptual standpoint. From prescribing radiotherapy to everyone to personalized approaches, including radiotherapy omission, there is still a lack of a comprehensive framework to guide radiation oncologists in decision making. Many pieces of the puzzle are finding their place as high-quality data mature and are disseminated, but very often, the interpretation of risk factors and the perception of risk remain very highly subjective. Sharing the therapeutic choice with patients requires effective communication for an understanding of risks and benefits, facilitating an informed decision that does not increase anxiety and concerns about prognosis. The purpose of this narrative review is to summarize the current state of knowledge to highlight the tools available to radiation oncologists for managing DCIS, with an outlook on future developments.

Ipsilateral tumor recurrence risk in women with ductal carcinoma in situ: application of the Van Nuys Prognostic Index and the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center nomogram

PURPOSE

To apply the Van Nuys Prognostic Index (VNPI) and the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) nomogram to DCIS patients with known long-term outcomes.

METHODS

A retrospective review was performed of consecutive patients diagnosed with DCIS from 2007 to 2014. Included patients underwent breast-conserving surgery (BCS) and were followed with imaging for at least five years. For each patient, the VNPI and MSKCC nomogram risk estimates were determined. In addition, variables used in both models were compared between women with and without recurrences using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test and the Pearson's chi-squared test.

RESULTS

Over the eight-year period, 456 women (average age 57 years, range 30-87) underwent BCS for DCIS. Thirty-one (6.8%) experienced an ipsilateral recurrence. The average VNPI scores were 7 (range 5-9) and 7 (range 4-10) for women with and without a recurrence (p = 0.14), respectively, with 4-6, 7-9, and 10-12 being the low, moderate, and high-risk groups, respectively. Per the MSKCC nomogram, the average five-year recurrence risks were 5% (range 1-12%) and 4% (range 1-38%) for women with and without a recurrence (p = 0.09), respectively. The recurrence risk-related variables were younger patient age, need for one or more re-excision surgeries, and use of endocrine therapy for 0 to less than five years after surgery.

CONCLUSION

Ipsilateral tumor recurrence risk estimates based on the VNPI and MSKCC nomogram are similar between women with DCIS who did and did not have a recurrence, suggesting that more robust prognostic models are needed.

Nomogram for Predicting Risk of Cancer Therapy-Related Cardiac Dysfunction in Patients With Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2-Positive Breast Cancer

BACKGROUND

Cancer therapy-related cardiac dysfunction (CTRCD) is an important treatment-limiting toxicity for patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive breast cancer that adversely affects cancer and cardiovascular outcomes. Easy-to-use tools that incorporate readily accessible clinical variables for individual estimation of CTRCD risk are needed.

METHODS AND RESULTS

From 2004 to 2013, 1440 patients with stage I to III HER2-positive breast cancer treated with trastuzumab-based therapy were identified. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was constructed to identify risk factors for CTRCD and included the 1377 patients in whom data were complete. Nine clinical variables, including age, race, body mass index, left ventricular ejection fraction, systolic blood pressure, coronary artery disease, diabetes, arrhythmia, and anthracycline exposure were built into a nomogram estimating risk of CTRCD at 1 year. The nomogram was validated for calibration and discrimination using bootstrap resampling. A total of 177 CTRCD events occurred within 1 year of HER2-targeted treatment. The nomogram for prediction of 1-year CTRCD probability demonstrated good discrimination, with a concordance index of 0.687. The predicted and observed probabilities of CTRCD were similar, demonstrating good model calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

A nomogram composed of 9 readily accessible clinical variables provides an individualized 1-year risk estimate of CTRCD among women with HER2-positive breast cancer receiving HER2-targeted therapy. This nomogram represents a simple-to-use tool for clinicians and patients that can inform clinical decision-making on breast cancer treatment options, optimal frequency of cardiac surveillance, and role of cardioprotective strategies.

Evolution of Breast Cancer Recurrence Risk Prediction: A Systematic Review of Statistical and Machine Learning-Based Models

PURPOSE

Selection of appropriate adjuvant therapy to ultimately reduce the risk of breast cancer (BC) recurrence is a challenge for medical oncologists. Several automated risk prediction models have been developed using retrospective clinical data and have evolved significantly over the years in terms of predictors of recurrence, data usage, and predictive techniques (statistical/machine learning [ML]).

METHODS

Following PRISMA guidelines, we performed a systematic literature review of the aforementioned statistical and ML models published between January 2008 and December 2022 through searching five digital databases-PubMed, ScienceDirect, Scopus, Cochrane, and Web of Science. The comprehensive search yielded a total of 163 papers and after a screening process focusing on papers that dealt exclusively with statistical/ML methods, only 23 papers were deemed appropriate for further analysis. We benchmarked the studies on the basis of development, evaluation metrics, and validation strategy with an added emphasis on racial diversity of patients included in the studies.

RESULTS

In total, 30.4% of the included studies use statistical techniques, while 69.6% are ML-based. Among these, traditional ML models (support vector machines, decision tree, logistic regression, and naïve Bayes) are the most frequently used (26.1%) along with deep learning (26.1%). Deep learning and ensemble learning provide the most accurate predictions (AUC = 0.94 each).

CONCLUSION

ML-based prediction models exhibit outstanding performance, yet their practical applicability might be hindered by limited interpretability and reduced generalization. Moreover, predictive models for BC recurrence often focus on limited variables related to tumor, treatment, molecular, and clinical features. Imbalanced classes and the lack of open-source data sets impede model development and validation. Furthermore, existing models predominantly overlook African and Middle Eastern populations, as they are trained and validated mainly on Caucasian and Asian patients.

Significance of Hypofractionated Radiotherapy in Postoperative Irradiation for Breast Cancer: An Asian Multi-institutional Prospective Study

AIMS

There is a need for the adequate distribution of healthcare resources in Southeast Asia. Many countries in the region have more patients with advanced breast cancer who are eligible for postmastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT). Therefore, it is critical that hypofractionated PMRT is effective in most of these patients. This study investigated the significance of postoperative hypofractionated radiotherapy in patients with breast cancer, including advanced breast cancer, in these countries.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Eighteen facilities in 10 Asian countries participated in this prospective, interventional, single-arm study. The study included two independent regimens: hypofractionated whole-breast irradiation (WBI) for patients who had undergone breast-conserving surgery and hypofractionated PMRT for patients who had undergone total mastectomy at a dose of 43.2 Gy in 16 fractions. In the hypofractionated WBI group, patients with high-grade factors received additional 8.1 Gy boost irradiation sessions for the tumour bed in three fractions.

RESULTS

Between February 2013 and October 2019, 227 and 222 patients were enrolled in the hypofractionated WBI and hypofractionated PMRT groups, respectively. The median follow-up periods in the hypofractionated WBI and hypofractionated PMRT groups were 61 and 60 months, respectively. The 5-year locoregional control rates were 98.9% (95% confidence interval 97.4-100.0) and 96.3% (95% confidence interval 93.2-99.4) in the hypofractionated WBI and hypofractionated PMRT groups, respectively. Regarding adverse events, grade 3 acute dermatitis was observed in 2.2% and 4.9% of patients in the hypofractionated WBI and hypofractionated PMRT groups, respectively. However, no other adverse events were observed.

CONCLUSION

Although further follow-up is required, hypofractionated radiotherapy regimens for postoperative patients with breast cancer in East and Southeast Asian countries are effective and safe. In particular, the proven efficacy of hypofractionated PMRT indicates that more patients with advanced breast cancer can receive appropriate care in these countries. Hypofractionated WBI and hypofractionated PMRT are reasonable approaches that can contain cancer care costs in these countries. Long-term observation is required to validate our findings.

Analytical validation of the 7-gene biosignature for prediction of recurrence risk and radiation therapy benefit for breast ductal carcinoma in situ

Purpose

Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS), is a noninvasive breast cancer, representing 20-25% of breast cancer diagnoses in the USA. Current treatment options for DCIS include mastectomy or breast-conserving surgery (BCS) with or without radiation therapy (RT), but optimal risk-adjusted treatment selection remains a challenge. Findings from past and recent clinical trials have failed to identify a 'low risk' group of patients who do not benefit significantly from RT after BCS. To address this unmet need, a DCIS biosignature, DCISionRT (PreludeDx, Laguna Hills, CA), was developed and validated in multiple cohorts. DCISionRT is a molecular assay with an algorithm reporting a recurrence risk score for patients diagnosed with DCIS intended to guide DCIS treatment. In this study, we present results from analytical validity, performance assessment, and clinical performance validation and clinical utility for the DCISionRT test comprised of multianalyte assays with algorithmic analysis.

Methods

The analytical validation of each molecular assay was performed based on the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) guidelines Quality Assurance for Design Control and Implementation of Immunohistochemistry Assays and the College of American Pathologists/American Society of Clinical Oncology (CAP/ASCO) recommendations for analytic validation of immunohistochemical assays.

Results

The analytic validation showed that the molecular assays that are part of DCISionRT test have high sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy/reproducibility (≥95%). The analytic precision of the molecular assays under controlled non-standard conditions had a total standard deviation of 6.6 (100-point scale), where the analytic variables (Lot, Machine, Run) each contributed <1% of the total variance. Additionally, the precision in the DCISionRT test result (DS) had a 95%CI ≤0.4 DS units under controlled non-standard conditions (Day, Lot, and Machine) for molecular assays over a wide range of clinicopathologic factor values. Clinical validation showed that the test identified 37% of patients in a low-risk group with a 10-year invasive IBR rate of ~3% and an absolute risk reduction (ARR) from RT of 1% (number needed to treat, NNT=100), while remaining patients with higher DS scores (elevated-risk) had an ARR for RT of 9% (NNT=11) and 96% clinical sensitivity for RT benefit.

Conclusion

The analytical performance of the PreludeDx DCISionRT molecular assays was high in representative formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded breast tumor specimens. The DCISionRT test has been analytically validated and has been clinically validated in multiple peer-reviewed published studies.

Associations of clinicopathological factors with local treatment and survival outcome in elderly patients with ductal carcinoma in situ

Background

Local treatment for ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains controversial for elderly patients. This study aims to evaluate the association of local treatment, clinicopathological factors, and survival in elderly DCIS patients.

Methods

Patients ≥ 60 years diagnosed with DCIS from January 2009 to December 2018 were retrospectively included. Local treatment including breast surgery, axillary lymph node (ALN) surgery, and radiotherapy were analyzed among subgroups (age of 60-69, 70-79, and ≥ 80 years), and their associations with clinicopathological features and prognostic outcome were further evaluated.

Results

A total of 331 patients were included. Eventually 86 patients received breast conserving surgery (BCS) and 245 patients received mastectomy. ALN surgery was omitted in 62 patients. Age and tumor size were independent factors that influenced the breast and ALN surgery (P < 0.05). Compared with patients aging 60-69, patients ≥ 80 years were more likely to receive BCS (OR 4.28, 95% CI 1.33-13.78, P = 0.015) and be exempt from ALN surgery (OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.05-0.69, P = 0.011). Patients with tumor >1.5 cm were significantly less likely to receive BCS (OR 0.45, 95%CI 0.25-0.83, P = 0.011) and more likely to receive ALN surgery (OR 4.41, 95%CI 1.96-10.48, P = 0.001) compared to patients with tumor ≤ 1.5 cm. Postoperative radiotherapy was performed in 48.8% patients who received BCS. Age was the only factor that associated with the radiotherapy decision after BCS in elderly DCIS patients (P = 0.025). No significant recurrence-free survival difference was observed among patients receiving different local treatments.

Conclusions

Age was related to the choice of local treatment in elderly DCIS patients, but different treatment patterns didn't impact disease outcome.

Analysis of Local Recurrence Risk in Ductal Carcinoma In Situ and External Validation of the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center Nomogram

BACKGROUND

Adjuvant radiotherapy and hormonotherapy after breast-conserving surgery (BCS) in ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) have been shown to reduce the risk of local recurrence. To predict the risk of ipsilateral breast tumor relapse (IBTR) after BCS, the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) developed a nomogram to analyze local recurrence (LR) risk in our cohort and to assess its external validation.

METHODS

A historical cohort study using data from 296 patients treated for DCIS at the Hospital Clínic of Barcelona was carried out. Patients who had had a mastectomy were excluded from the analysis.

RESULTS

The mean age was 58 years (42-75), and the median follow-up time was 10.64 years. The overall local relapse rate was 13.04% (27 patients) during the study period. Actuarial 5- and 10-year IBTR rates were 5.8 and 12.9%, respectively. The external validation of the MSKCC nomogram was performed using a multivariate logistic regression analysis on a total of 207 patients, which did not reach statistical significance in the studied population for predicting LR (p = 0.10). The expression of estrogen receptors was significantly associated with a decreased risk of LR (OR: 0.25; p = 0.004).

CONCLUSIONS

In our series, the LR rate was 13.4%, which was in accordance with the published series. The MSKCC nomogram did not accurately predict the IBTR in this Spanish cohort of patients treated for DCIS (p = 0.10).

The Landmark Series-Ductal Carcinoma in Situ: The Evolution of Treatment

The evolution of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) management has been driven by a parallel evolution in our understanding of its natural history. Early trials established the benefit of adjuvant therapies in all patients with DCIS. In contrast, subsequent studies have stratified patients to determine their eligibility for progressively less invasive and less intensive therapies. Large, randomized trials and meta-analyses have supported this shift away from treating DCIS as an homogenous disease treated with similar intensity to invasive breast cancer. This review describes the landmark studies on which current DCIS management is based.

Predicting Breast Cancer Events in Ductal Carcinoma In Situ (DCIS) Using Generative Adversarial Network Augmented Deep Learning Model

Standard clinicopathological parameters (age, growth pattern, tumor size, margin status, and grade) have been shown to have limited value in predicting recurrence in ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) patients. Early and accurate recurrence prediction would facilitate a more aggressive treatment policy for high-risk patients (mastectomy or adjuvant radiation therapy), and simultaneously reduce over-treatment of low-risk patients. Generative adversarial networks (GAN) are a class of DL models in which two adversarial neural networks, generator and discriminator, compete with each other to generate high quality images. In this work, we have developed a deep learning (DL) classification network that predicts breast cancer events (BCEs) in DCIS patients using hematoxylin and eosin (H & E) images. The DL classification model was trained on 67 patients using image patches from the actual DCIS cores and GAN generated image patches to predict breast cancer events (BCEs). The hold-out validation dataset (n = 66) had an AUC of 0.82. Bayesian analysis further confirmed the independence of the model from classical clinicopathological parameters. DL models of H & E images may be used as a risk stratification strategy for DCIS patients to personalize therapy.

Molecular Signatures in Ductal Carcinoma In Situ (DCIS): A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

CONTEXT

Adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) after breast-conserving surgery (BCS) for ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is debated as benefits are inconstant. Molecular signatures for DCIS have been developed to stratify the risk of local recurrence (LR) and therefore guide the decision of RT.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate, in women with DCIS treated by BCS, the impact of adjuvant RT on LR according to the molecular signature risk stratification.

METHODOLOGY

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of five articles including women with DCIS treated by BCS and with a molecular assay performed to stratify the risk, comparing the effect of BCS and RT versus BCS alone on LR including ipsilateral invasive (InvBE) and total breast events (TotBE).

RESULTS

The meta-analysis included 3478 women and evaluated two molecular signatures: Oncotype Dx DCIS (prognostic of LR), and DCISionRT (prognostic of LR and predictive of RT benefit). For DCISionRT, in the high-risk group, the pooled hazard ratio of BCS + RT versus BCS was 0.39 (95%CI 0.20-0.77) for InvBE and 0.34 (95%CI 0.22-0.52) for TotBE. In the low-risk group, the pooled hazard ratio of BCS + RT versus BCS was significant for TotBE at 0.62 (95%CI 0.39-0.99); however, it was not significant for InvBE (HR = 0.58 (95%CI 0.25-1.32)), Discussion: Molecular signatures are able to discriminate high- and low-risk women, high-risk ones having a significant benefit of RT in the reduction of invasive and in situ local recurrences, while in low-risk ones RT did not have a benefit for preventing invasive breast recurrence. The risk prediction of molecular signatures is independent of other risk stratification tools developed in DCIS, and have a tendency toward RT de-escalation. Further studies are needed to assess the impact on mortality.

Identifying recurrences and metastasis after ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast

Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast is a non-invasive tumour that has the potential to progress to invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC). Thus, it represents a treatment dilemma: alone it does not present a risk to life, however, left untreated it may progress to a life-threatening condition. Current clinico-pathological features cannot accurately predict which patients with DCIS have invasive potential, and therefore clinicians are unable to quantify the risk of progression for an individual patient. This leads to many women being over-treated, while others may not receive sufficient treatment to prevent invasive recurrence. A better understanding of the molecular features of DCIS, both tumour-intrinsic and the microenvironment, could offer the ability to better predict which women need aggressive treatment, and which can avoid therapies carrying significant side-effects and such as radiotherapy. In this review, we summarise the current knowledge of DCIS, and consider future research directions.

The clinical significance of HER2 expression in DCIS

HER2 is an established prognostic and predictive marker for patients with invasive breast cancer. The clinical and biological significance of HER2 overexpression in patients with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains poorly defined. DCIS is a heterogeneous disease and some patients with DCIS will not progress to invasive breast cancer. However, clinically significant recurrence rates have been reported after breast-conserving surgery for DCIS and approximately half of these cases will be life-threatening invasive recurrences. Since the incidence of DCIS is rising due to the widespread use of screening mammography, there is robust interest in selecting high-risk DCIS patients that may benefit from adjuvant therapies. Molecular prognostic and predictive models in early invasive breast cancer help clinicians identify patients that will benefit from chemotherapy. Molecular subtyping and profiling could also be useful in treating DCIS patients. According to current practice guidelines, HER2 testing is not recommended in DCIS patients. Nevertheless, evidence suggests that HER2-positive DCIS cases may be associated with adverse clinicopathological parameters and increased recurrence rates. This review summarizes the existing body of evidence linking HER2 expression and ipsilateral breast cancer recurrence in DCIS. HER2, as well as its correlation with other clinicopathological markers might be a useful prognostic and predictive marker, helping clinical decision-making in DCIS patients.

Five decades of progress in surgical oncology: Breast

Surgery remains the single most effective treatment for breast cancer but coincident with a deeper understanding of tumor biology and advances in multidisciplinary care (encompassing breast imaging, systemic adjuvant therapy, radiotherapy, and genomics) continues to de-escalate, supported by strong level I data. We have moved from mastectomy to breast conservation, and from routine axillary dissection to sentinel lymph node biopsy to selective omission of axillary node staging altogether. We have further de-escalated through consensus over margin width in breast conservation, through improvements in neoadjuvant therapy, and by demonstrating no benefit for upfront surgery in patients with stage IV disease. For patients with ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence, reconservation surgery and reirradiation are promising. Cell cycle and immune checkpoint inhibitors, when added to conventional systemic therapy, have now moved beyond stage IV disease to phase III trials in the adjuvant and neoadjuvant settings, promising even further de-escalation of surgery. Finally, with genomic profiling we are moving away from the primacy of axillary node status for prognostication and into a new era allowing prediction of response to therapy.

MiRNA expression deregulation correlates with the Oncotype DX® DCIS score

Background

Current clinical criteria do not discriminate well between women who will or those who will not develop ipsilateral invasive breast cancer (IBC), or a DCIS recurrence after a ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) diagnosis. The 12-gene Oncotype DX® DCIS assay (RT qPCR gene-based scoring system) was established and shown to predict the risk of subsequent ipsilateral IBC or DCIS recurrence. Recent studies have shown that microRNA (miRNA) expression deregulation can contribute to the development of IBC, but very few have evaluated miRNA deregulation in DCIS lesions. In this study, we sought to determine whether specific miRNA expression changes may correlate with Oncotype DX® DCIS scores.

Methods

For this study, we used archived formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded (FFPE) specimens from 41 women diagnosed with DCIS between 2012 and 2018. The DCIS lesions were stratified into low (n = 26), intermediate (n = 10), and high (n = 5) risk score groups using the Oncotype DX® DCIS assay. Total RNA was extracted from DCIS lesions by macro-dissection of unstained FFPE sections, and next-generation small-RNA sequencing was performed. We evaluated the correlation between miRNA expression data and Oncotype score, as well as patient age. RT-qPCR validations were performed to validate the topmost differentially expressed miRNAs identified between the different risk score groups.

Results

MiRNA sequencing of 32 FFPE DCIS specimens from the three different risk group scores identified a correlation between expression deregulation of 17 miRNAs and Oncotype scores. Our analyses also revealed a correlation between the expression deregulation of 9 miRNAs and the patient’s age. Based on these results, a total of 15 miRNAs were selected for RT-qPCR validation. Of these, miR-190b (p = 0.043), miR-135a (p = 0.05), miR-205 (p = 0.00056), miR-30c (p = 0.011), and miR-744 (p = 0.038) showed a decreased expression in the intermediate/high Oncotype group when compared to the low-risk score group. A composite risk score was established using these 5 miRNAs and indicated a significant association between miRNA expression deregulation and the Oncotype DX® DCIS Score (p < 0.0021), between high/intermediate and low risk groups.

Conclusions

Our analyses identified a subset of 5 miRNAs able to discriminate between Oncotype DX® DCIS score subgroups. Together, our data suggest that miRNA expression analysis may add value to the predictive and prognostic evaluation of DCIS lesions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13058-022-01558-4.

Patterns of Care and Utilization of Radiation for Women With Good-Risk Ductal Carcinoma In Situ: A National Cancer Database Analysis

Purpose/objective(s) Lumpectomy followed by whole-breast radiation therapy (WBRT) provides a 50% recurrence rate reduction in ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) patients when compared to lumpectomy alone. Certain factors increase the risk of recurrence, including higher nuclear grade, large size, age less than 50, and close margins. RTOG 9804 demonstrated a reduction in local failure after WBRT with the use of adjuvant radiation in women with "good-risk disease" (mammographically detected, measuring less than or equal to 2.5 cm, with a predominant nuclear grade of 1 or 2, and a margin of greater than or equal to 1 cm, or a negative re-excision). The purpose of this study is to retrospectively identify the patterns of care in women with low-risk DCIS utilizing the National Cancer Database (NCDB). We hypothesize that with the utilization of hypofractionation, there may be an increase in the delivery of RT for these "good-risk" patients. Materials/methods The National Cancer Database was queried to identify women treated with lumpectomy for <2.5 cm, nuclear grade 1 or 2 DCIS of the breast from 2004 to 2016. Data were collected regarding age, tumor size, endocrine therapy use, ER receptor status, race, insurance type, and distance from the treatment center. The distance was stratified into quartiles consisting of 0-3.9, 4-8, 8.1-15.8, and > 15.8 miles, respectively. Radiation fractionation was collected and categorized as hypofractionation, standard fractionation, or other if fractionation could not be ascertained. Clinical and patient-related factors were compared between patients who received radiation and those who received no radiation. The frequency distributions between categorical variables were compared using the Chi-square test. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify covariables that impacted the receipt of radiation. Results The eligibility criteria were met by a total of 12,846 patients. Of those, 6,600 (51.4%) received adjuvant WBRT. On multivariable regression, patients whose tumors were ER (OR 1.24, P<0.001) and those who had not received endocrine therapy (OR 2.24, P<0.001) were more likely to receive WBRT. Factors less likely to receive WBRT included increasing age over 50 (age 50-65 OR 0.83, P<0.001; age>65 OR 0.58, P<0.001), and distance of >15.8 miles (OR 0.78, P<0.001). The fractionation technique was categorized as standard or hypofractionated in 52.2% of patients. Of those, the use of hypofractionation increased from 0.4% in 2004 to 8.9% in 2010 and to 53.8% in 2016. Conclusion This NCDB analysis demonstrated that patients who meet the RTOG 9804 criteria for "good-risk" DCIS are less likely to receive RT as time progresses despite an increase in the utilization of hypofractionation techniques. Overall, slightly more than half of these patients receive adjuvant RT.

Escalating de-escalation in breast cancer treatment

Efforts have continually been made to de-escalate treatment for breast cancer, with the goal of balancing oncologic outcomes with complications and patient quality of life. In the early 2000s, two landmark studies firmly established that conservative treatment approaches for breast cancer can be safe and effective. More recently, neoadjuvant chemotherapy has gained momentum as a potential standard of care for breast cancer. An important question has thus arisen: Can neoadjuvant approaches themselves be de-escalated to further minimize adverse treatment effects while maintaining oncological outcomes? In this editorial, we look at the available evidence and assess current trends in treatment de-escalation for women with breast cancer.

Prediction Models and Decision Aids for Women with Ductal Carcinoma In Situ: A Systematic Literature Review

Simple Summary

Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is a potential precursor to invasive breast cancer (IBC). Although in many women DCIS will never become breast cancer, almost all women diagnosed with DCIS undergo surgery with/without radiotherapy. Several studies are ongoing to de-escalate treatment for DCIS. Multiple decision support tools have been developed to aid women with DCIS in selecting the best treatment option for their specific goals. The aim of this study was to identify these decision support tools and evaluate their quality and clinical utility. Thirty-three studies were reviewed, in which four decision aids and six prediction models were described. While some of these models might be promising, most lacked important qualities such as tools to help women discuss their options or good quality validation studies. Therefore, the need for good quality, well validated decision support tools remains unmet.

Abstract

Even though Ductal Carcinoma in Situ (DCIS) can potentially be an invasive breast cancer (IBC) precursor, most DCIS lesions never will progress to IBC if left untreated. Because we cannot predict yet which DCIS lesions will and which will not progress, almost all women with DCIS are treated by breast-conserving surgery +/− radiotherapy, or even mastectomy. As a consequence, many women with non-progressive DCIS carry the burden of intensive treatment without any benefit. Multiple decision support tools have been developed to optimize DCIS management, aiming to find the balance between over- and undertreatment. In this systematic review, we evaluated the quality and added value of such tools. A systematic literature search was performed in Medline(ovid), Embase(ovid), Scopus and TRIP. Following the PRISMA guidelines, publications were selected. The CHARMS (prediction models) or IPDAS (decision aids) checklist were used to evaluate the tools’ methodological quality. Thirty-three publications describing four decision aids and six prediction models were included. The decision aids met at least 50% of the IPDAS criteria. However, most lacked tools to facilitate discussion of the information with healthcare providers. Five prediction models quantify the risk of an ipsilateral breast event after a primary DCIS, one estimates the risk of contralateral breast cancer, and none included active surveillance. Good quality and external validations were lacking for all prediction models. There remains an unmet clinical need for well-validated, good-quality DCIS risk prediction models and decision aids in which active surveillance is included as a management option for low-risk DCIS.

Addressing the problem of overtreatment in breast cancer

INTRODUCTION

As breast cancer treatment options have multiplied and biologic diversity within breast cancer has been recognized, the use of the same treatment strategies for patients with early-stage and favorable disease, and for those with biologically aggressive disease, has been questioned. In addition, as patient-reported outcome measures have called attention to the morbidity of many common treatments, and as the cost of breast cancer care has continued to increase, reduction in the overtreatment of breast cancer has assumed increasing importance.

AREAS COVERED

Here we review selected aspects of surgery, radiation oncology, and medical oncology for which scientific evidence supports de-escalation for invasive carcinoma and ductal carcinoma in situ, and assess strategies to address overtreatment.

EXPERT OPINION

The problems of breast cancer overtreatment we face today are based on improved understanding of the biology of breast cancer and abandonment of the 'one-size-fits-all' approach. As breast cancer care becomes increasingly complex, and as our knowledge base continues to increase exponentially, these problems will only be magnified in the future. To continue progress, the move must be made from advocating the maximum-tolerated treatment to advocating the minimum-effective one.

Preneoplastic Low-Risk Mammary Ductal Lesions (Atypical Ductal Hyperplasia and Ductal Carcinoma In Situ Spectrum): Current Status and Future Directions

Intraepithelial mammary ductal neoplasia is a spectrum of disease that varies from atypical ductal hyperplasia (ADH), low-grade (LG), intermediate-grade (IG), to high-grade (HG) ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). While ADH has the lowest prognostic significance, HG-DCIS carries the highest risk. Due to widely used screening mammography, the number of intraepithelial mammary ductal neoplastic lesions has increased. The consequence of this practice is the increase in the number of patients who are overdiagnosed and, therefore, overtreated. The active surveillance (AS) trials are initiated to separate lesions that require active treatment from those that can be safely monitored and only be treated when they develop a change in the clinical/radiologic characteristics. At the same time, the natural history of these lesions can be evaluated. This review aims to evaluate ADH/DCIS as a spectrum of intraductal neoplastic disease (risk and histomorphology); examine the controversies of distinguishing ADH vs. DCIS and the grading of DCIS; review the upgrading for both ADH and DCIS with emphasis on the variation of methods of detection and the definitions of upgrading; and evaluate the impact of all these variables on the AS trials.

A visualized dynamic prediction model for survival of patients with geriatric thyroid cancer: A population-based study

OBJECTIVE

Thyroid cancer (TC) is a common malignancy with a poor prognosis with aging. However, no accurate predictive survival model exists for patients with geriatric TC.We aimed to establish prediction models of prognosis in elderly TC.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the clinicopathology characteristics of patients with geriatric TC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (SEER) from 2004 to 2018. The risk predictors used to build the nomograms were derived from the Cox proportional risk regression. These nomograms were used to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival and cancer-specific survival in elderly patients with TC. The accuracy and discriminability of the new model were evaluated by the consistency index (C-index) and calibration curve. The clinical applicability value of the model was assessed using the decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

We used the SEER database to include 16475 patients with geriatric TC diagnosed from 2004 to 2018. The patients from 2004 to 2015 were randomly sorted out on a scale of 7:3. They were classified into a training group (n = 8623) and a validation group (n = 3669). Patients with TC diagnosed in 2016-2018 were classified into external validation groups (n = 4183). The overall survival nomogram consisted of 10 variables (age, gender, marital status, histologic type, grade, TNM stage, surgery status, and tumor size). A cancer-specific survival nomogram consisted of eight factors (age, tumor size, grade, histologic type, surgery, and TNM stage). The C-index values for the training, validation, and external validation groups were 0.775 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.785-0.765), 0.776 (95% CI 0.792-0.760), and 0.895(95% CI 0.873-0.917), respectively. The overall survival was consistent with a nomogram based on the calibration curve. Besides, the decision curve analysis showed excellent clinical application value of the nomogram. Additionally, we found that surgery could improve the prognosis of patients with geriatric at high-risk (P < 0.001) but not those at low-risk (P = 0.069).

CONCLUSION

This was the first study to construct predictive survival nomograms for patients with geriatric TC. The well-established nomograms and the actual results could guide follow-up management strategies.

Should Everyone With Ductal Carcinoma in Situ Receive Adjuvant Radiation?

The Oncology Grand Rounds series is designed to place original reports published in the Journal into clinical context. A case presentation is followed by a description of diagnostic and management challenges, a review of the relevant literature, and a summary of the authors' suggested management approaches. The goal of this series is to help readers better understand how to apply the results of key studies, including those published in Journal of Clinical Oncology, to patients seen in their own clinical practice.

Advances and controversies in management of breast ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS)

Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is a non-obligate precursor of invasive breast cancer. It accounts for 25% of all breast cancers diagnosed, as a result of the expansion of breast cancer screening and is associated with a high survival rate. DCIS is particularly clinically challenging, due to its heterogeneous pathological and biological traits and its management is continually evolving towards more personalized and less aggressive therapies. This article suggests evidence-based guidelines for proper DCIS clinical management, which should be discussed within a multidisciplinary team in order to propose the most suitable approach in clinical practice, taking into account recent scientific studies. Here we include updated multidisciplinary treatment protocols and techniques in accordance with the most recent contributions published on this topic in the peer-reviewed medical literature, and we outline future perspectives.

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram model for Chinese patients with primary small cell carcinoma of the esophagus

BACKGROUND

Primary small cell carcinoma of the esophagus (PSCE) is a highly invasive malignant tumor with a poor prognosis compared with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Due to the limited samples size and the short follow-up time, there are few reports on elucidating the prognosis of PSCE, especially on the establishment and validation of a survival prediction nomogram model covering general information, pathological factors and specific biological proteins of PSCE patients.

AIM

To establish an effective nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) probability for PSCE patients in China.

METHODS

The nomogram was based on a retrospective study of 256 PSCE patients. Univariate analysis and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis were used to examine the prognostic factors associated with PSCE, and establish the model for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS based on the Akaike information criterion. Discrimination and validation were assessed by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA). Histology type, age, tumor invasion depth, lymph node invasion, detectable metastasis, chromogranin A, and neuronal cell adhesion molecule 56 were integrated into the model.

RESULTS

The C-index was prognostically superior to the 7^th tumor node metastasis (TNM) staging in the primary cohort [0.659 (95%CI: 0.607-0.712) vs 0.591 (95%CI: 0.517-0.666), P = 0.033] and in the validation cohort [0.700 (95%CI: 0.622-0.778) vs 0.605 (95%CI: 0.490-0.721), P = 0.041]. Good calibration curves were observed for the prediction probabilities of 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS in both cohorts. DCA analysis showed that our nomogram model had a higher overall net benefit compared to the 7^th TNM staging .

CONCLUSION

Our nomogram can be used to predict the survival probability of PSCE patients, which can help clinicians to make individualized survival predictions.

A novel nomogram based on cardia invasion and chemotherapy to predict postoperative overall survival of gastric cancer patients

Background

We aimed to establish and externally validate a nomogram to predict the 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) of gastric cancer (GC) patients after surgical resection.

Methods

A total of 6543 patients diagnosed with primary GC during 2004–2016 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We grouped patients diagnosed during 2004–2012 into a training set (n = 4528) and those diagnosed during 2013–2016 into an external validation set (n = 2015). A nomogram was constructed after univariate and multivariate analysis. Performance was evaluated by Harrell’s C-index, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), decision curve analysis (DCA), and calibration plot.

Results

The multivariate analysis identified age, race, location, tumor size, T stage, N stage, M stage, and chemotherapy as independent prognostic factors. In multivariate analysis, the hazard ratio (HR) of non-cardia invasion was 0.762 (P < 0.001) and that of chemotherapy was 0.556 (P < 0.001). Our nomogram was found to exhibit excellent discrimination: in the training set, Harrell’s C-index was superior to that of the 8th American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM classification (0.736 vs 0.699, P < 0.001); the C-index was also better in the validation set (0.748 vs 0.707, P < 0.001). The AUCs for 3- and 5-year OS were 0.806 and 0.815 in the training set and 0.775 and 0.783 in the validation set, respectively. The DCA and calibration plot of the model also shows good performance.

Conclusions

We established a well-designed nomogram to accurately predict the OS of primary GC patients after surgical resection. We also further confirmed the prognostic value of cardia invasion and chemotherapy in predicting the survival rate of GC patients.

Occurrence of residual disease in specimens of re-excision surgery in patients with positive margins of primary quadrantectomy

Performing a re-intervention following a positive margin after primary lumpectomy in patients with breast cancer entails several disadvantages such as additional costs and postponing the follow-up treatments. In the present study, we sought to measure the incidence rate of residual disease in specimens taken from breast cancer patients who had positive margins after quadrantectomy and also compare the clinical and pathological factors between patients with and without a residual disease after the secondary surgery. All of the medical records of patients undergoing quadrantectomy from December 1994 to December 2019 were collected from Shiraz Breast Cancer Registry (SBCR). Patients were divided into two subgroups of patients with and without residual disease from the secondary surgery and also with and without positive margin from the first operation. Two groups were compared in terms of all clinicopathological factors. The records of 4843 patients undergoing quadrantectomy were reviewed, of which 132 (2.3%) had involved margins. Of these, 112 patients underwent a secondary surgery and 28 had residual disease (25%). No clinicopathological factor was correlated with presence of residual cancer. Also, bigger tumor size (p < 0.001) and the presence of in situ component (p < 0.001) were associated with positive margin and hence the need for a re-excision surgery. These results revealed that the significant rate of residual disease in the specimens of the secondary surgery indicates that a re-operation (either re-excision or simple mastectomy) cannot be omitted after obtaining a positive margin from the primary quadrantectomy.

Risk Stratification of Ductal Carcinoma In Situ and Texture Analysis of Contrast-Enhanced Breast Magnetic Resonance Imaging

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate whether texture analysis of contrast-enhanced T1 weighted images could predict risk of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS).

METHODS

The study included 185 DCIS lesions that were classified as either low risk or non-low risk using surgical pathology records. All magnetic resonance imaging texture analyses were performed using postprocessing software, and texture-derived parameters were extracted.

RESULTS

The sphericity, compactness, and spherical disproportion were significantly different in the low-risk and non-low risk groups using the Van Nuys Prognostic Index (mean ± SD, 0.479 ± 0.189 vs 0.414 ± 0.176, 0.161 ± 0.159 vs 0.112 ± 0.134, and 2.569 ± 1.434 vs 2.934 ± 1.374, respectively; P < 0.05). In the univariate analyses, sphericity (odds ratio, 7.091; 95% confidence interval, 1.236-40.666; P = 0.028) and compactness (odds ratio, 9.267; 95% confidence interval, 1.125-76.360; P = 0.039) were significantly associated with a high probability of being low risk according to the Van Nuys Prognostic Index.

CONCLUSIONS

Whole-lesion texture analysis may be helpful in identifying patients classified as having low-risk DCIS before surgery.

Novel Prediction Models for Patients With Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma at Different Anatomical Sites

PURPOSE

The individualized prediction of oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OC-SCC) is essential and should be as comprehensive as possible. The aim of this study was to identify new risk factors and develop nomograms comparing all anatomic sites of the oral cavity.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. All patients with OC-SCC diagnosed from 2004 to 2015 were selected and divided into the training cohort and the validation cohort. Age, gender, race, marital status, primary site, tumor grade, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage, TNM stage, surgical treatment, radiotherapy and chemotherapy were identified as predictor variables. The overall survival (OS) and disease specific survival (DSS) were identified as outcome variables. Kaplan-Meier method with log-rank test, univariate and multivariate cox regression analysis were performed. Independent prognostic factors were used to develop 3- and 5-year nomograms. Hazard ratio (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) showed the influence of each factor on OS or DSS. Concordance indexes (C-indexes) and calibration curves verified the nomograms internally and externally.

RESULTS

A total of 12,346 patients were included. Marital status and chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors (P < .05). Tumors occurring on the cheek mucosa had the highest risk in OS (HR, 2.0, 95% CI, 1.7-2.3) and DSS (HR, 4.7, 95% CI, 3.6-6.0), while tumors occurring on the lip had the lowest risk in OS (HR, 1.0) and DSS (HR,1.0). The C-indexes for OS in the training and validation sets were 0.767 and 0.770, respectively, and for DSS were 0.800 and 0.799, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Marital status and chemotherapy independently affect OC-SCC patients' survival. The prognosis is least favorable for tumors occurring on the cheek mucosa and most favorable for tumors occurring on the lip.

Association of the 12-Gene Breast DCIS Score® Assay With Local Recurrence in Patients With Ductal Carcinoma In Situ Treated on Accelerated Partial Breast Radiotherapy Protocols

Background

The following analysis explores clinicopathologic factors and the 12-gene Breast DCIS Score test result in order to better define an appropriate DCIS (ductal carcinoma in situ) population eligible for APBI (accelerated partial breast radiotherapy).

Methods

This exploratory analysis aimed to retrospectively measure the association between the 12-gene Oncotype DX Breast DCIS Score^® assay (Redwood City, CA) and relevant clinicopathologic factors with locoregional recurrence in a pooled cohort of women treated with local excision and APBI on prospective phase II (NCT01185145) and phase III (NCT01185132) clinical trials. Univariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to determine whether there was an association between local recurrence and DCIS Score result risk group (≥ 39 vs < 39) and clinicopathologic factors.

Results

This analysis included 104 evaluable patients (n = 18 from NCT01185145 and n = 86 from NCT01185132). The median age was 60 years (range: 40-79). Seventy-nine percent of patients were postmenopausal. The median span of DCIS was 10 mm (range 2-45 mm). Two-thirds of the cohort presented with necrosis (71%). The distribution of DCIS Score^® results ranged from 0 to 82, with 69% of patients having a DCIS Score result < 39. The median follow-up time was 8.2 years in NCT01185145 versus 3.0 years in NCT01185132. There were 6 local ipsilateral breast recurrences. DCIS Score result was significantly associated with local recurrence in univariable modeling, hazard ratio = 10.3 (95% CI 1.7, 198.4); p = 0.010. None of the clinicopathologic characteristics resulted in any significant association with locoregional recurrence.

Conclusion

The Breast DCIS Score assay demonstrated risk stratification in this cohort of patients treated with local excision and APBI pooled from two clinical trials. These results are consistent with those recently published utilizing whole breast radiotherapy. Due to the small number of local recurrence events and limited follow-up time, further investigations are needed to confirm findings.

[18F]DCFPyL PET/CT in detection and localization of recurrent prostate cancer following prostatectomy including low PSA < 0.5 ng/mL

PURPOSE

The primary aim of this retrospective multicenter analysis was to assess the performance of PSMA PET/CT using [18F]DCFPyL in the detection and localization of recurrent prostate cancer post radical prostatectomy (RP). Particular reference is given to low PSA groups < 0.5 ng/mL to aid discussion around the inclusion of this group in PSMA guidelines and funding pathways.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of combined PSMA database patients from centers in Australia and New Zealand. Two hundred twenty-two patients presenting with recurrence post RP were stratified into five PSA groups (ng/mL): 0-0.19, 0.2-0.49, 0.5-0.99, 1-1.99, and ≥ 2. Lesions detected by [18F]DCFPyL PET/CT were recorded as local recurrence, locoregional nodes, and metastases.

RESULTS

Of 222 patients, 155 (69.8%) had evidence of abnormal uptake suggestive of recurrent prostate cancer. The detection efficacies for [18F]DCFPyL PET/CT were 91.7% (44/48) for PSA levels ≥ 2 ng/mL, 82.1% (23/28) for PSA levels 1-1.99 ng/mL, 62.8% (27/43) for PSA levels 0.5-0.99 ng/mL, 58.7% (54/92) for PSA levels 0.2-0.49 ng/mL, and 63.6% (7/11) for PSA levels ≤ 0.2 ng/mL. In those with PSA < 0.5 ng/mL, 47.6% (49/103) had detectable lesions, 71.4% (35/49) had disease confined to the pelvis, 22.4% (11/49) had prostate bed recurrence, 49.0% (24/49) had pelvic lymph nodes, and 28.6% (14/49) had extra pelvic disease.

CONCLUSION

[18F]DCFPyL PET/CT has a high detection rate in recurrence following RP even at low PSA levels with similar detection levels in the PSA subgroups < 0.5 ng/mL. Employing rigid PSA thresholds when constructing guidelines for PSMA PET/CT funding eligibility may result in a significant number of patients below such thresholds having delayed or inappropriate treatment.