Three-month modified Rankin Scale as a determinant of 5-year cumulative costs after ischemic stroke

Case for Establishing a National Stroke Activation Fee in the United States: Learning From Trauma Centers

There is a large burden of stroke in the United States, and extensive systems of care have been established to address it. The resources devoted to stroke centers are analogous to those of trauma centers, both sharing many strict requirements for certification, clinical preparedness, quality improvement, data management, and reporting. However, trauma programs partly defray these costs through a trauma activation billing code, a billable fee that is charged for activation of the trauma team under strict criteria. There are potential benefits to establishing an analogous national stroke code activation fee. Although a billable stroke code activation fee may increase financial burden on patients, this may be counterbalanced by the significant potential for individual and societal benefits. Providing additional financial support for stroke systems of care may improve acute stroke treatment, reduce stroke burden and poststroke disability, and reduce inequality by broadening the reach of stroke systems of care to disadvantaged communities. Further evaluation of the costs and benefits of implementing a stroke code activation fee based on that currently used by trauma centers is needed.

Teleneurocritical care is associated with equivalent billable charges to in-person neurocritical care for patients with acute stroke

INTRODUCTION

Teleneurocritical care (TNCC) provides virtual care for hospitals who do not have continuous neurointensivist coverage. It is not known if TNCC is cost effective nor which variables impact the total billed charges per patient encounter. We characterize cost, defined by charge characteristics of TNCC compared to in-person neurocritical care (NCC), for patients with acute ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke requiring ICU care.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective review from 2018 to 2021 of prospectively collected multinstitutional databases from a large, integrated, not-for-profit health system with an in-person NCC and spoke TNCC sites. The primary outcome was the total billable charge per TNCC patient with acute ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke compared to in-person NCC. Secondary outcomes were functional outcome, transfer rate, and length of stay (LOS).

RESULTS

A total of 1779 patients met inclusion criteria, 1062 at the hub in-person NCC hospital and 717 at spoke TNCC hospitals. Total billed patient charges of TNCC were similar to in-person NCC (median 104% of the cost per in-person NCC patient, 95% CI: 99%-108%). From 2018 to 2021, the charge difference between TNCC and NCC was not different (r2  =  0.71, p  =  0.16). Both age and length stay were independently predictive of charges: for every year older the charge increased by US $6.3, and every day greater LOS the charge increased by $2084.3 (p < 0.001, both). TNCC transfer rates were low, and TNCC had shorter LOS and greater favorable functional outcome.

DISCUSSION

TNCC was associated with similar patient financial charges as compared to in-person NCC. Standardization of care and the integrated hub-spoke value-focused operational procedures of TNCC may be applicable to other healthcare systems, however, further prospective study is needed.

One-year direct and indirect costs of ischaemic stroke in China

BACKGROUND

This is the first real-world study to estimate the direct costs and indirect costs of first-ever ischaemic stroke with 1-year follow-up in China, based on a nationally representative sample.

METHODS

Patients were chosen from 20 geographically diverse sites from the nationally representative database China National Stroke Registry-III (CNSR-III). The inclusion criteria were surviving patients who were hospitalised with first-ever ischaemic stroke from February 2017 to February 2018 (the index event); aged 18-80 during the index event; no history of other stroke types. The primary endpoints were direct medical costs, direct non-medical costs, indirect costs and total cost (ie, the sum of all cost components). Patient characteristics and clinical data were extracted from CNSR-III. Stroke-related in-hospital direct medical costs were collected from hospital electronic medical records. The patient survey collected data related to out-of-hospital direct medical costs, direct non-medical costs and indirect costs. The secondary objective was to explore clinical factors associated with cost outcomes through univariate analysis and multiple regression.

RESULTS

The study enrolled 520 patients. The total cost was 57 567.48 CNY, with 26 612.67 CNY direct medical costs, 2 787.56 CNY direct non-medical costs and 28 167.25 CNY indirect costs. Univariate analysis showed that longer lengths of stay during the index event, higher National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) and modified Rankin Scale scores were associated with higher costs in all categories. Conversely, EuroQol 5 Dimension utility scores were associated with decreased costs except direct non-medical costs. Multiple regressions showed that higher admission NIHSS scores were independently associated with higher direct medical costs, indirect costs and total cost. Higher 3-month utilities were associated with lower total cost.

CONCLUSION

This real-world study showed substantial 1-year economic burden following first-ever ischaemic stroke in China, and that indirect costs are a non-negligible driver of costs.

Cost and Utility Estimates per Modified Rankin Scale Score up to 2 Years Post Stroke: Data to Inform Economic Evaluations From a Societal Perspective

OBJECTIVES

Model-based health economic evaluations of ischemic stroke are in need of cost- and utility estimates related to relevant outcome measures. This study aims to describe societal cost- and utility estimates per modified Rankin Scale (mRS)-score at different time points within 2 years post stroke.

METHODS

Included patients had a stroke between 3 months and 2.5 years ago. mRS and EQ-5D-5L were scored during a telephone interview. Based on the interview date, records were categorized into a time point: 3 months (3M; 3-6 months), 1 year (Y1; 6-18 months), or 2 years (Y2; 18-30 months). Patients completed a questionnaire on healthcare utilization and productivity losses in the previous 3 months. Initial stroke hospitalization costs were assessed. Mean costs and utilities per mRS and time point were derived with multiple imputation nested in bootstrapping. Cost at 3 months post stroke were estimated separately for endovascular treatment (EVT)-/non-EVT-patients.

RESULTS

1106 patients were included from 18 Dutch centers. At each time point, higher mRS-scores were associated with increasing average costs and decreasing average utility. Mean societal costs at 3M ranged from €11 943 (mRS 1, no EVT) to €55 957 (mRS 5, no EVT). For Y1, mean costs in the previous 3 months ranged from €885 (mRS 0) to €23 215 (mRS 5), and from €1655 (mRS 0) to €22 904 (mRS 5) for Y2. Mean utilities ranged from 0.07 to 0.96, depending on mRS and time point.

CONCLUSIONS

The mRS-score is a major determinant of costs and utilities at different post-stroke time points. Our estimates may be used to inform future model-based health economic evaluations.

Comparison of Hospital Performance in Acute Ischemic Stroke Based on Mortality and Functional Outcome in South Korea

BACKGROUND

Recent evidence suggests a correlation between modified Rankin Scale-based measures, an outcome measure commonly used in acute stroke trials, and mortality-based measures used by health agencies in the evaluation of hospital performance. We aimed to examine whether the 2 types of measures are interchangeable in relation to evaluation of hospital performance in acute ischemic stroke.

METHODS

Five outcome measures, unfavorable functional outcome (3-month modified Rankin Scale score ≥2), death or dependency (3-month modified Rankin Scale score ≥3), 1-month mortality, 3-month mortality, and 1-year mortality, were collected for 8292 individuals who were hospitalized for acute ischemic stroke between January 2014 and May 2015 in 14 hospitals participating in the Clinical Research Collaboration for Stroke in Korea - National Institute of Health registry. Hierarchical regression models were used to calculate per-hospital risk-adjusted outcome rates for each measure. Hospitals were ranked and grouped based on the risk-adjusted outcome rates, and the correlations between the modified Rankin Scale-based and mortality-based ranking and their intermeasure reliability in categorizing hospital performance were analyzed.

RESULTS

The comparison between the ranking based on the unfavorable functional outcome and that based on 1-year mortality resulted in a Spearman correlation coefficient of -0.29 and Kendall rank coefficient of -0.23, and the comparison of grouping based on these 2 types of ranks resulted in a weighted kappa of 0.123 for the grouping in the top 33%/middle 33%/bottom 33% and 0.25 for the grouping in the top 20%/middle 60%/bottom 20%, respectively. No significant correlation or similarity in grouping capacities were found between the rankings based on the functional outcome measures and those based on the mortality measures.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that regardless of clinical correlation at an individual patient level, functional outcome-based measures and mortality-based measures are not interchangeable in the evaluation of hospital performance in acute ischemic stroke.

Postoperative Disability and One-Year Outcomes for Patients Suffering a Stroke after Carotid Endarterectomy

OBJECTIVES

Although post-carotid endarterectomy (CEA) strokes are rare, they can be devastating. The degree of disability that patients develop after such events and its effects on long-term outcomes are unclear. Our goal was to assess the extent of postoperative disability in patients suffering strokes after CEA and evaluate its association with long-term outcomes.

METHODS

The Vascular Quality Initiative CEA registry (2016-2020) was queried for CEAs performed for asymptomatic or symptomatic indications in patients with preoperative modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores of 0-1. The mRS grades stroke-related disability as 0 (none), 1 (not significant), 2-3 (moderate), 4-5 (severe), and 6 (dead). Patients suffering postoperative strokes with recorded mRS scores were included. Postoperative stroke-related disability based on mRS and its association with long-term outcomes were analyzed.

RESULTS

Among 149,285 patients undergoing CEA, there were 1,178 patients without preoperative disability who had postoperative strokes and reported mRS scores. Mean age was 71 ± 9.2 years and 59.6% of patients were male. Regarding ipsilateral cortical symptoms within six months preoperatively, 83.5% of patients were asymptomatic, 7.3% had transient ischemic attacks, and 9.2% had strokes. Postoperative stroke-related disability was classified as mRS 0 (11.6%), 1 (19.5%), 2-3 (29.4%), 4-5 (31.5%), and 6 (8%). One-year survival stratified by postoperative stroke-related disability was 91.4% for mRS 0, 95.6% for mRS 1, 92.1% for mRS 2-3, and 81.5% for mRS 4-5 (P<.001). Multivariable analysis demonstrated that while severe postoperative disability was associated with increased death at one year (HR 2.97, 95% CI 1.5-5.89, P=.002), moderate postoperative disability had no such association (HR .95, 95% CI .45-2, P=.88). One-year freedom from subsequent ipsilateral neurological events or death stratified by postoperative stroke-related disability was 87.8% for mRS 0, 93.3% for mRS 1, 88.5% for mRS 2-3, and 77.9% for mRS 4-5 (P<.001). Severe postoperative disability was independently associated with increased ipsilateral neurological events or death at one year (HR 2.34, 95% CI 1.25-4.38, P=.01). However, moderate postoperative disability exhibited no such association (HR .92, 95% CI .46-1.82, P=.8).

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of patients without preoperative disability who suffered strokes after CEA developed significant disability. Severe stroke-related disability was associated with higher one-year mortality and subsequent neurological events. These data can improve informed consent for CEA and guide prognostication after postoperative strokes.

Annual Case Volume and One-Year Mortality for Endovascular Treatment in Acute Ischemic Stroke

BACKGROUND

The association between endovascular treatment (EVT) case volume per hospital and clinical outcomes has been reported, but the exact volume threshold has not been determined. This study aimed to examine the case volume threshold in this context.

METHODS

National audit data on the quality of acute stroke care in patients admitted via emergency department, within 7 days of onset, in hospitals that treated ≥ 10 stroke cases during the audit period were analyzed. Ischemic stroke cases treated with EVT during the last three audits (2013, 2014, and 2016) were selected for the analysis. Annual EVT case volume per hospital was estimated and analyzed as a continuous and a categorical variable (in quartiles). The primary outcome measure was 1-year mortality as a surrogate of 3-month functional outcome. As post-hoc sensitivity analysis, replication of the study results was examined using the 2018 audit data.

RESULTS

We analyzed 1,746 ischemic stroke cases treated with EVT in 120 acute care hospitals. The median annual EVT case volume was 12.0 cases per hospital, and mortality rates at 1 month, 3 months, and 1 year were 12.7%, 16.6%, and 23.3%, respectively. Q3 and Q4 had 33% lower odds of 1-year mortality than Q1. Adjustments were made for predetermined confounders. Annual EVT case volume cut-off value for 1-year mortality was 15 cases per year (P < 0.02). The same cut-off value was replicated in the sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSION

Annual EVT case volume was associated with 1-year mortality. The volume threshold per hospital was 15 cases per year.

David G. Sherman Lecture Award: 15-Year Experience of the Nationwide Multicenter Stroke Registry in Korea

The expected growth of stroke burden in Korea in early 2000s led to the initiation of a government-funded clinical research project with the goal of development and implementation of national stroke guidelines. The CRCS-K (Clinical Research Collaboration for Stroke in Korea) began as a part of this project. For stroke epidemiology and quality of care research, the CRCS-K developed a multicenter, prospective, stroke registry and began collection of data in 2008. Now, about 100 000 cases have been registered at 17 university hospitals or regional stroke centers and about 200 articles have been published based on the registry experience. The analysis of the 10-year secular trends showed overall improvement of stroke care and outcomes and areas for improvement. This large-scale, high-quality dataset provides opportunities to explore and compare treatment disparities using the comparative effectiveness research methods, design and conduct a registry-based randomized clinical trial, connect the registry data with other data sources including the national claims data and neuroimaging or genetic data, and collaborate with other international researchers. An international stroke registry consortium may be a viable future direction.

A prospective epidemiological analysis of controlling nutritional status score with the poor functional outcomes in Chinese patients with haemorrhagic stroke

Nutritional Risk Screening index is a standard tool to assess nutritional risk, but epidemiological data are scarce on controlling nutritional status (CONUT) as a prognostic marker in acute haemorrhagic stroke (AHS). We aimed to explore whether the CONUT may predict a 3-month functional outcome in AHS. In total, 349 Chinese patients with incident AHS were consecutively recruited, and their malnutrition risks were determined using a high CONUT score of ≥ 2. The cohort patients were divided into high-CONUT (≥ 2) and low-CONUT (< 2) groups, and primary outcomes were a poor functional prognosis defined as the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score of ≥ 3 at post-discharge for 3 months. Odds ratios (OR) with 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for the poor functional prognosis at post-discharge were estimated by using a logistic analysis with additional adjustments for unbalanced variables between the high-CONUT and low-CONUT groups. A total of 328 patients (60·38 ± 12·83 years; 66·77 % male) completed the mRS assessment at post-discharge for 3 months, with 172 patients at malnutrition risk at admission and 104 patients with a poor prognosis. The levels of total cholesterol and total lymphocyte counts were significantly lower in high-CONUT patients than low-CONUT patients (P = 0·012 and < 0·001, respectively). At 3-month post discharge, there was a greater risk for the poor outcome in the high-CONUT compared with the low-CONUT patients at admission (OR: 2·32, 95 % CI: 1·28, 4·17). High-CONUT scores independently predict a 3-month poor prognosis in AHS, which helps to identify those who need additional nutritional managements.

Thrombectomy is a cost-saving procedure up to 24 h after onset

INTRODUCTION AND AIM

The treatment of ischemic stroke due to large-vessel occlusion has been revolutionized by mechanical thrombectomy (MT), as multiple trials have consistently shown improved functional outcomes compared to standard medical management both in the early and late time windows after symptom onset. However, MT is an interventional procedure that is more costly than best supportive care (BSC).

METHODS

We set out to study the cost-utility and budget impact of MT + BSC versus BSC alone for large-vessel occlusion using a combined decision tree and Markov model. The analysis was conducted from a Belgian payer perspective over a lifetime horizon, and health states were defined by the modified Rankin Scale (mRS). The treatment effect of MT + BSC combined clinical outcomes from all published early and late treatment window studies showing improved mRS after 90 days. Resource use and utilities were informed by an observational Belgian study of 569 stroke patients. Long-term mRS transitions were sourced from the Oxford Vascular study.

RESULTS

MT + BSC generated 1.31 additional quality-adjusted life years and resulted in cost savings of €10,216 per patient over lifetime. Deterministic sensitivity analyses demonstrated dominance of MT over a wide range of parameter inputs. In a Belgian setting, adding MT to BSC within an early time window for 1575 eligible stroke patients every year produced cost savings between €6.3 million (year 1) and €14.6 million (year 5), or a total cost saving of €56.2 million over 5 years.

CONCLUSION

Mechanical thrombectomy is a highly cost-effective treatment for ischemic stroke patients, providing quality-adjusted survival at lower health care cost, both when given in an early time window, as well as in a late time window.

Unmet Needs for Rehabilitative Management in Common Health-Related Problems Negatively Impact the Quality of Life of Community-Dwelling Stroke Survivors

Purpose: Community-dwelling stroke survivors have various unmet needs for rehabilitative management, but there is a lack of in-depth investigations on common health problems after stroke. Moreover, the association between unmet needs and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) has not been thoroughly investigated. This study aimed to investigate the unmet needs for rehabilitative management in common problems after stroke and their associations with HRQoL among community-dwelling stroke survivors. Methods: A face-to-face cross-sectional survey was conducted among community-dwelling stroke survivors visiting outpatient clinics of rehabilitation departments between June and October 2020 in three university-affiliated hospitals. Unmet needs for common problems after stroke were assessed across eight domains based on the post-stroke checklist: spasticity, dysphagia, communication, cognition, ambulation, pain/discomfort, anxiety/depression, and self-care. HRQoL was measured using the EuroQoL-5D three level (EQ-5D). The prevalence of unmet needs for rehabilitative management and their associations with the EQ-5D index were analyzed. Results: Among the 239 participants who responded to the survey, 63% (n = 150) were men. The mean age was 63 ± 13 years, and the mean duration of stroke onset was 55.6 months. Overall, 49% reported at least one unmet need, and the most frequently reported unmet needs were anxiety/depression (20.9%), self-care (20.9%), and pain/discomfort (18.0%). The highest proportion of unmet needs was in the anxiety/depression, communication, and cognition domains. Patients with unmet needs for cognition and pain/discomfort showed a significantly lower EQ-5D index, even after adjusting for age, sex, and modified Rankin scale scores. The total number of unmet needs was significantly correlated with a lower EQ-5D index (Pearson's r = -0.329, p < 0.001) in the multivariate linear regression model. Conclusions: Unmet rehabilitative needs are prevalent among community-dwelling stroke survivors, and the proportion of unmet needs was high among non-physical domains such as anxiety/depression. The number of unmet needs is an independent negative predictor of HRQoL. Systematic approaches to identify unmet needs and provide appropriate rehabilitative management are required in long-term stroke survivors.

Twenty-Year Change in Severity and Outcome of Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Strokes

Question

Did the initial neurological severity and functional outcomes of patients with stroke change throughout a 20-year period?

Findings

In this hospital-based, multicenter, prospective registry involving 183 080 patients with acute stroke, initial neurological severity showed a decrease over time in all stroke types. Functional outcome at hospital discharge improved in patients with ischemic stroke but no longer showed improvement after adjustment by reperfusion therapy and others; it did not clearly improve in patients with hemorrhagic stroke.

Meaning

Twenty-year changes in functional outcomes after ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes showed different trends presumably partly owing to differences in the development of acute therapeutic strategies.

Importance

Whether recent changes in demographic characteristics and therapeutic technologies have altered stroke outcomes remains unknown.

Objective

To determine secular changes in initial neurological severity and short-term functional outcomes of patients with acute stroke by sex using a large population.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This nationwide, hospital-based, multicenter, prospective registry cohort study used the Japan Stroke Data Bank and included patients who developed acute stroke from January 2000 through December 2019. Patients with stroke, including ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes, who registered within 7 days after symptom onset were studied. Modified Rankin Scale scores were assessed at hospital discharge for all patients.

Exposure

Time.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Initial severity was assessed by the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale for ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage and by the World Federation of Neurological Surgeons grading for subarachnoid hemorrhage. Outcomes were judged as favorable if the modified Rankin Scale score was 0 to 2 and unfavorable if 5 to 6.

Results

Of 183 080 patients, 135 266 (53 800 women [39.8%]; median [IQR] age, 74 [66-82] years) developed ischemic stroke, 36 014 (15 365 women [42.7%]; median [IQR] age, 70 [59-79] years) developed intracerebral hemorrhage, and 11 800 (7924 women [67.2%]; median [IQR] age, 64 [53-75] years) developed subarachnoid hemorrhage. In all 3 stroke types, median ages at onset increased, and the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale and World Federation of Neurological Surgeons scores decreased throughout the 20-year period on multivariable analysis. In ischemic stroke, the proportion of favorable outcomes showed an increase over time after age adjustment (odds ratio [OR], 1.020; 95% CI, 1.015-1.024 for women vs OR, 1.015; 95% CI, 1.011-1.018 for men) but then stagnated, or even decreased in men, on multivariate adjustment including reperfusion therapy (OR, 0.997; 95% CI, 0.991-1.003 for women vs OR, 0.990; 95% CI, 0.985-0.994 for men). Unfavorable outcomes and in-hospital deaths decreased in both sexes. In intracerebral hemorrhage, favorable outcomes decreased in both sexes, and unfavorable outcomes and deaths decreased only in women. In subarachnoid hemorrhage, the proportion of favorable outcomes was unchanged, and that of unfavorable outcomes and deaths decreased in both sexes.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, functional outcomes improved in patients with ischemic stroke during the past 20 years in both sexes presumably partly owing to the development of acute reperfusion therapy. The outcomes of patients with hemorrhagic stroke did not clearly improve in the same period.

Sex differences in direct healthcare costs following stroke: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

The economic burden of stroke on the healthcare system has been previously described, but sex differences in healthcare costs have not been well characterized. We described the direct person-level healthcare cost in men and women as well as the various health settings in which costs were incurred following stroke.

METHODS

In this population-based cohort study of patients admitted to hospital with stroke between 2008 and 2017 in Ontario, Canada, we used linked administrative data to calculate direct person-level costs in Canadian dollars in the one-year following stroke. We used a generalized linear model with a gamma distribution and a log link function to compare costs in women and men with and without adjustment for baseline clinical differences. We also assessed for an interaction between age and sex using restricted cubic splines to model the association of age with costs.

RESULTS

We identified 101,252 patients (49% were women, median age [Q1-Q3] was 76 years [65-84]). Unadjusted costs following stroke were higher in women compared to men (mean ± standard deviation cost was $54,012 ± 54,766 for women versus $52,829 ± 59,955 for men, and median cost was $36,703 [$16,496-$72,227] for women versus $32,903 [$15,485-$66,007] for men). However, after adjustment, women had 3% lower costs compared to men (relative cost ratio and 95% confidence interval 0.97 [0.96,0.98]). The lower cost in women compared to men was most prominent among people aged over 85 years (p for interaction = 0.03). Women incurred lower costs than men in outpatient care and rehabilitation, but higher costs in complex continuing care, long-term care, and home care.

CONCLUSIONS

Patterns of resource utilization and direct medical costs were different between men and women after stroke. Our findings inform public payers of the drivers of costs following stroke and suggest the need for sex-based cost-effectiveness evaluation of stroke interventions with consideration of costs in all care settings.

Changes in the Activity Measure for Post-Acute Care Domains in Persons With Stroke During the First Year After Discharge From Inpatient Rehabilitation

OBJECTIVE

To describe functional changes after inpatient stroke rehabilitation using the Activity Measure for Post-Acute Care (AM-PAC), an assessment measure sensitive to change and with a low risk of ceiling effect.

DESIGN

Retrospective, longitudinal cohort study.

SETTING

Inpatient rehabilitation unit of an urban academic medical center.

PARTICIPANTS

Among 433 patients with stroke admitted from 2012-2016, a total of 269 (62%) were included in our database and 89 of 269 patients (33.1%) discharged from inpatient stroke rehabilitation had complete data. Patients with and without complete data were very similar. The group had a mean age of 68.0±14.2 years, National Institutes of Health Stroke Score of 8.0±8.0, and rehabilitation length of stay of 14.7±7.4 days, with 84% having an ischemic stroke and 22.5% having a recurrent stroke.

INTERVENTION

None.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Changes in function across the first year after discharge (DC) were measured in a variety of ways. Continuous mean scores for the basic mobility (BM), daily activity (DA), and applied cognitive domains of the AM-PAC were calculated at and compared between inpatient DC and 6 (6M) and 12 months (12M) post DC. Categorical changes among individuals were classified as "improved," "unchanged," or "declined" between the 3 time points based on the minimal detectable change, (estimated) minimal clinically important difference, and a change ≥1 AM-PAC functional stage (FS).

RESULTS

For the continuous analyses, the Friedman test was significant for all domains (P≤.002), with Wilcoxon signed-rank test significant for all domains from DC to 6M (all P<.001) but with no change in BM and DA between 6M and 12M (P>.60) and a decline in applied cognition (P=.002). Despite group improvements from DC to 6M, for categorical changes at an individual level 10%-20% declined and 50%-70% were unchanged. Despite insignificant group differences from 6M-12M, 15%-25% improved and 20%-30% declined in the BM and DA domains.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite group gains from DC to 6M and an apparent "plateau" after 6M post stroke, there was substantial heterogeneity at an individual level. Our results underscore the need to consider individual-level outcomes when evaluating progress or outcomes in stroke rehabilitation.

Toward a more inclusive paradigm: thrombectomy for stroke patients with pre-existing disabilities

BACKGROUND

Persons with pre-existing disabilities represent over one-third of acute stroke presentations, but account for a far smaller proportion of those receiving endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) and thrombolysis. This is despite existing ethical, economic, legal, and social directives to maximize equity for this vulnerable population. We sought to determine associations between baseline modified Rankin Scale (mRS) and outcomes after EVT.

METHODS

Individuals who underwent EVT were identified from a prospectively maintained database. Demographics, medical history, presentations, treatments, and outcomes were recorded. Baseline disability was defined as baseline mRS≥2. Accumulated disability was defined as the delta between baseline mRS and absolute 90-day mRS.

RESULTS

Of 381 individuals, 49 had baseline disability (five with mRS=4, 23 mRS=3, 21 mRS=2). Those with baseline disability were older (81 vs 68 years, P<0.0001), more likely female (65% vs 49%, P=0.032), had more coronary disease (39% vs 20%, P=0.006), stroke/TIA history (35% vs 15%, P=0.002), and higher NIH Stroke Scale (19 vs 16, P=0.001). Baseline mRS was associated with absolute 90-day mRS ≤2 (OR=0.509, 95%CI=0.370-0.700). However, baseline mRS bore no association with accumulated disability by delta mRS ≤0 (ie, return to baseline, OR=1.247, 95%CI=0.943-1.648), delta mRS ≤1 (OR=1.149, 95%CI=0.906-1.458), delta mRS ≤2 (OR 1.097, 95% CI 0.869-1.386), TICI 2b-3 reperfusion (OR=0.914, 95%CI=0.712-1.173), final infarct size (P=0.853, β=-0.014), or intracerebral hemorrhage (OR=0.521, 95%CI=0.244-1.112).

CONCLUSIONS

While baseline mRS was associated with absolute 90-day disability, there was no association with accumulated disability or other outcomes. Patients with baseline disability should not be routinely excluded from EVT based on baseline mRS alone.

Lifetime risks and health impacts of hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke in South Korea

This study is aimed toward estimating the lifetime risks, life expectancy, expected years of life lost (EYLL), and lifetime costs related to different subtypes of stroke in South Korea. We included 13,994 patients diagnosed with stroke (ICD-10, I60-I63) in the National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort of Korea between 2006 and 2015. Lifetime risks were calculated using the cumulative incidence rate for patients aged 18–84. Lifetime survival data were obtained through the Kaplan–Meier method and extrapolated with a rolling-over extrapolation algorithm. The lifetime costs were estimated by multiplying the average monthly expenditures with the survival probabilities and adding the values over lifetime. The lifetime risks of stroke in Korea have been decreasing consistently over the last decade with the exception of subarachnoid hemorrhage in females, which appears to have slightly increased. The EYLL is higher in hemorrhagic stroke than in ischemic stroke (6–9.7 vs. 4.7). Expected lifetime costs reimbursed by the NHIS would amount to about $71,406 accompanied with $14,921 copayment from the patients for hemorrhagic stroke, and $50,551 and $11,666, respectively, for ischemic stroke. Further studies are warranted to combine survival with quality of life and functional disability to obtain a more detailed outcome assessment of the potential impact of the prevention of stroke.

Weights for ordinal analyses of the modified Rankin Scale in stroke trials: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Ordinal/shift analyses of ordered measures like the modified Rankin Scale(mRS) are underused as primary trial outcomes for neurological disorders - despite statistical advantages - potentially hindered by poor clinical interpretability versus dichotomies, and by valuing state-transitions equally (linear scale). Weighted ordinal analyses incorporating step-changes at key transitions might have greater statistical validity and clinical applicability.

METHODS

In a prospective population-based cohort of ischaemic stroke (Oxford Vascular Study, recruited 2002-2014), we stratified 5-year outcomes of death, dementia, and/or institutionalization, health/social-care costs, and EuroQol-derived quality-adjusted life-expectancy(QALE) by 3-month mRS. We compared root-mean-square errors(RMSEs) from linear regressions for these outcomes with the mRS coded as a linear scale versus incorporating a spline at transitions 1-2, 2-3, or 3-4. We derived 3-month mRS weights for probability of 5-year death/dementia/institutionalization using age/sex-adjusted logistic regressions, and cost and QALE weights from 1000-bootstraps. We applied these weights to analyse recent trials of thrombectomy for acute ischaemic stroke.

FINDINGS

Among 1,607 patients, a non-linear (S-shaped) relationship was observed between 3-month mRS and each 5-year outcome, with RMSEs 18-73% lower using a spline at mRS 2-3 versus a linear representation. Age/sex-adjusted probability weights for 5-year death/dementia/institutionalization were: mRS 0=0.19; 1=0.27; 2=0.41; 3=0.73; 4=0.77; 5=0.94 (mRS 6=1 by definition). Similar trends were seen with costs; estimated 5-year QALEs were: mRS 0=3.88; 1=3.49; 2=3.01; 3=1.87; 4=1.30; 5=0.06; 6=0. Results were similar stratifying by age/sex, and excluding pre-morbidly disabled patients. Using a weighted ordinal approach, estimates of thrombectomy impact were more favourable than estimates with dichotomous approaches, 5-year cost reductions being 29% higher than with 0-2/3-6, and over three-fold higher than with 0-1/2-6 dichotomy.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings favour weighting the mRS in ordinal analyses for stroke and other neurological disorders, as state-transitions differ in clinical prognosis, quality-of-life, and costs. These weights could also be used for prognostication and cost-effectiveness analyses.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, Wolfson Foundation, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Rhodes Trust.