Leveraging effect size distributions to improve polygenic risk scores derived from summary statistics of genome-wide association studies

Sex-specific associations between air pollutants and asthma prevalence in Japanese adults: a population-based study

This study investigated the association between air pollutants and asthma prevalence in male and female Japanese adults. In this retrospective cross-sectional analysis, annual mean exposure levels of air pollutants, specifically nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter with a median aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5), were assessed at a local monitoring site. Multivariable logistic regression models, adjusted for genetic and/or lifestyle factors, were used to explore the association between air pollutants and asthma, with stratification by sex. A total of 1,497 participants aged ≥40 years were included. Their mean age was 65.9 ± 12.4 years, with 847 being women. Overall, 91 participants were diagnosed with asthma. In the multivariable model, ambient exposure levels of NO2 and PM2.5 were significantly associated with asthma in women but not in men. This study highlights sex as a significant determinant of the link between air pollutants and asthma exacerbation, particularly among female Japanese adults.

Advancements and limitations in polygenic risk score methods for genomic prediction: a scoping review

This scoping review aims to identify and evaluate the landscape of Polygenic Risk Score (PRS)-based methods for genomic prediction from 2013 to 2023, highlighting their advancements, key concepts, and existing gaps in knowledge, research, and technology. Over the past decade, various PRS-based methods have emerged, each employing different statistical frameworks aimed at enhancing prediction accuracy, processing speed and memory efficiency. Despite notable advancements, challenges persist, including unrealistic assumptions regarding sample sizes and the polygenicity of traits necessary for accurate predictions, as well as limitations in exploring hyper-parameter spaces and considering environmental interactions. We included studies focusing on PRS-based methods for risk prediction that underwent methodological evaluations using valid approaches and released computational tools/software. Additionally, we restricted our selection to studies involving human participants that were published in English language. This review followed the standard protocol recommended by Joanna Briggs Institute Reviewer's Manual, systematically searching Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Scopus and Web of Science databases. Additionally, searches included grey literature sources like pre-print servers such as bioRxiv, and articles recommended by experts to ensure comprehensive and diverse coverage of relevant records. This study identified 34 studies detailing 37 genomic prediction methods, the majority of which rely on linkage disequilibrium (LD) information and necessitate hyper-parameter tuning. Nine methods integrate functional/gene annotation, while 12 are suitable for cross-ancestry genomic prediction, with only one considering gene-environment (GxE) interaction. While some methods require individual-level data, most leverage summary statistics, offering flexibility. Despite progress, challenges remain. These include computational complexity and the need for large sample sizes for high prediction accuracy. Furthermore, recent methods exhibit varying effectiveness across traits, with absolute accuracies often falling short of clinical utility. Transferability across ancestries varies, influenced by trait heritability and diversity of training data, while handling admixed populations remains challenging. Additionally, the absence of standard error measurements for individual PRSs, crucial in clinical settings, underscores a critical gap. Another issue is the lack of customizable graphical visualization tools among current software packages. While genomic prediction methods have advanced significantly, there is still room for improvement. Addressing current challenges and embracing future research directions will lead to the development of more universally applicable, robust, and clinically relevant genomic prediction tools.

ON BLOCKWISE AND REFERENCE PANEL-BASED ESTIMATORS FOR GENETIC DATA PREDICTION IN HIGH DIMENSIONS

Genetic prediction holds immense promise for translating genetic discoveries into medical advances. As the high-dimensional covariance matrix (or the linkage disequilibrium (LD) pattern) of genetic variants often presents a block-diagonal structure, numerous methods account for the dependence among variants in predetermined local LD blocks. Moreover, due to privacy considerations and data protection concerns, genetic variant dependence in each LD block is typically estimated from external reference panels rather than the original training data set. This paper presents a unified analysis of blockwise and reference panel-based estimators in a high-dimensional prediction framework without sparsity restrictions. We find that, surprisingly, even when the covariance matrix has a block-diagonal structure with well-defined boundaries, blockwise estimation methods adjusting for local dependence can be substantially less accurate than methods controlling for the whole covariance matrix. Further, estimation methods built on the original training data set and external reference panels are likely to have varying performance in high dimensions, which may reflect the cost of having only access to summary level data from the training data set. This analysis is based on novel results in random matrix theory for block-diagonal covariance matrix. We numerically evaluate our results using extensive simulations and real data analysis in the UK Biobank.

Tuning parameters for polygenic risk score methods using GWAS summary statistics from training data

Various polygenic risk scores (PRS) methods have been proposed to combine the estimated effects of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to predict genetic risks for common diseases, using data collected from genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Some methods require external individual-level GWAS dataset for parameter tuning, posing privacy and security-related concerns. Leaving out partial data for parameter tuning can also reduce model prediction accuracy. In this article, we propose PRStuning, a method that tunes parameters for different PRS methods using GWAS summary statistics from the training data. PRStuning predicts the PRS performance with different parameters, and then selects the best-performing parameters. Because directly using training data effects tends to overestimate the performance in the testing data, we adopt an empirical Bayes approach to shrinking the predicted performance in accordance with the genetic architecture of the disease. Extensive simulations and real data applications demonstrate PRStuning's accuracy across PRS methods and parameters.

Polygenic Risk Score for Cardiovascular Diseases in Artificial Intelligence Paradigm: A Review

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) related mortality and morbidity heavily strain society. The relationship between external risk factors and our genetics have not been well established. It is widely acknowledged that environmental influence and individual behaviours play a significant role in CVD vulnerability, leading to the development of polygenic risk scores (PRS). We employed the PRISMA search method to locate pertinent research and literature to extensively review artificial intelligence (AI)-based PRS models for CVD risk prediction. Furthermore, we analyzed and compared conventional vs. AI-based solutions for PRS. We summarized the recent advances in our understanding of the use of AI-based PRS for risk prediction of CVD. Our study proposes three hypotheses: i) Multiple genetic variations and risk factors can be incorporated into AI-based PRS to improve the accuracy of CVD risk predicting. ii) AI-based PRS for CVD circumvents the drawbacks of conventional PRS calculators by incorporating a larger variety of genetic and non-genetic components, allowing for more precise and individualised risk estimations. iii) Using AI approaches, it is possible to significantly reduce the dimensionality of huge genomic datasets, resulting in more accurate and effective disease risk prediction models. Our study highlighted that the AI-PRS model outperformed traditional PRS calculators in predicting CVD risk. Furthermore, using AI-based methods to calculate PRS may increase the precision of risk predictions for CVD and have significant ramifications for individualized prevention and treatment plans.

Combining Asian and European genome-wide association studies of colorectal cancer improves risk prediction across racial and ethnic populations

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have great potential to guide precision colorectal cancer (CRC) prevention by identifying those at higher risk to undertake targeted screening. However, current PRS using European ancestry data have sub-optimal performance in non-European ancestry populations, limiting their utility among these populations. Towards addressing this deficiency, we expand PRS development for CRC by incorporating Asian ancestry data (21,731 cases; 47,444 controls) into European ancestry training datasets (78,473 cases; 107,143 controls). The AUC estimates (95% CI) of PRS are 0.63(0.62-0.64), 0.59(0.57-0.61), 0.62(0.60-0.63), and 0.65(0.63-0.66) in independent datasets including 1681-3651 cases and 8696-115,105 controls of Asian, Black/African American, Latinx/Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White, respectively. They are significantly better than the European-centric PRS in all four major US racial and ethnic groups (p-values < 0.05). Further inclusion of non-European ancestry populations, especially Black/African American and Latinx/Hispanic, is needed to improve the risk prediction and enhance equity in applying PRS in clinical practice.

A new method for multiancestry polygenic prediction improves performance across diverse populations

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) increasingly predict complex traits; however, suboptimal performance in non-European populations raise concerns about clinical applications and health inequities. We developed CT-SLEB, a powerful and scalable method to calculate PRSs, using ancestry-specific genome-wide association study summary statistics from multiancestry training samples, integrating clumping and thresholding, empirical Bayes and superlearning. We evaluated CT-SLEB and nine alternative methods with large-scale simulated genome-wide association studies (~19 million common variants) and datasets from 23andMe, Inc., the Global Lipids Genetics Consortium, All of Us and UK Biobank, involving 5.1 million individuals of diverse ancestry, with 1.18 million individuals from four non-European populations across 13 complex traits. Results demonstrated that CT-SLEB significantly improves PRS performance in non-European populations compared with simple alternatives, with comparable or superior performance to a recent, computationally intensive method. Moreover, our simulation studies offered insights into sample size requirements and SNP density effects on multiancestry risk prediction.

Gene-environment interactions and the effect on obesity risk in low and middle-income countries: a scoping review

Background

Obesity represents a major and preventable global health challenge as a complex disease and a modifiable risk factor for developing other non-communicable diseases. In recent years, obesity prevalence has risen more rapidly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared to high-income countries (HICs). Obesity traits are shown to be modulated by an interplay of genetic and environmental factors such as unhealthy diet and physical inactivity in studies from HICs focused on populations of European descent; however, genetic heterogeneity and environmental differences prevent the generalisation of study results to LMICs. Primary research investigating gene-environment interactions (GxE) on obesity in LMICs is limited but expanding. Synthesis of current research would provide an overview of the interactions between genetic variants and environmental factors that underlie the obesity epidemic and identify knowledge gaps for future studies.

Methods

Three databases were searched systematically using a combination of keywords such as "genes", "obesity", "LMIC", "diet", and "physical activity" to find all relevant observational studies published before November 2022.

Results

Eighteen of the 1,373 articles met the inclusion criteria, of which one was a genome-wide association study (GWAS), thirteen used a candidate gene approach, and five were assigned as genetic risk score studies. Statistically significant findings were reported for 12 individual SNPs; however, most studies were small-scale and without replication.

Conclusion

Although the results suggest significant GxE interactions on obesity in LMICs, updated robust statistical techniques with more precise and standardised exposure and outcome measurements are necessary for translatable results. Future research should focus on improved quality replication efforts, emphasising large-scale and long-term longitudinal study designs using multi-ethnic GWAS.

Evaluating approaches for constructing polygenic risk scores for prostate cancer in men of African and European ancestry

Genome-wide polygenic risk scores (GW-PRSs) have been reported to have better predictive ability than PRSs based on genome-wide significance thresholds across numerous traits. We compared the predictive ability of several GW-PRS approaches to a recently developed PRS of 269 established prostate cancer-risk variants from multi-ancestry GWASs and fine-mapping studies (PRS269). GW-PRS models were trained with a large and diverse prostate cancer GWAS of 107,247 cases and 127,006 controls that we previously used to develop the multi-ancestry PRS269. Resulting models were independently tested in 1,586 cases and 1,047 controls of African ancestry from the California Uganda Study and 8,046 cases and 191,825 controls of European ancestry from the UK Biobank and further validated in 13,643 cases and 210,214 controls of European ancestry and 6,353 cases and 53,362 controls of African ancestry from the Million Veteran Program. In the testing data, the best performing GW-PRS approach had AUCs of 0.656 (95% CI = 0.635-0.677) in African and 0.844 (95% CI = 0.840-0.848) in European ancestry men and corresponding prostate cancer ORs of 1.83 (95% CI = 1.67-2.00) and 2.19 (95% CI = 2.14-2.25), respectively, for each SD unit increase in the GW-PRS. Compared to the GW-PRS, in African and European ancestry men, the PRS269 had larger or similar AUCs (AUC = 0.679, 95% CI = 0.659-0.700 and AUC = 0.845, 95% CI = 0.841-0.849, respectively) and comparable prostate cancer ORs (OR = 2.05, 95% CI = 1.87-2.26 and OR = 2.21, 95% CI = 2.16-2.26, respectively). Findings were similar in the validation studies. This investigation suggests that current GW-PRS approaches may not improve the ability to predict prostate cancer risk compared to the PRS269 developed from multi-ancestry GWASs and fine-mapping.

Evaluating Approaches for Constructing Polygenic Risk Scores for Prostate Cancer in Men of African and European Ancestry

Genome-wide polygenic risk scores (GW-PRS) have been reported to have better predictive ability than PRS based on genome-wide significance thresholds across numerous traits. We compared the predictive ability of several GW-PRS approaches to a recently developed PRS of 269 established prostate cancer risk variants from multi-ancestry GWAS and fine-mapping studies (PRS 269 ). GW-PRS models were trained using a large and diverse prostate cancer GWAS of 107,247 cases and 127,006 controls used to develop the multi-ancestry PRS 269 . Resulting models were independently tested in 1,586 cases and 1,047 controls of African ancestry from the California/Uganda Study and 8,046 cases and 191,825 controls of European ancestry from the UK Biobank and further validated in 13,643 cases and 210,214 controls of European ancestry and 6,353 cases and 53,362 controls of African ancestry from the Million Veteran Program. In the testing data, the best performing GW-PRS approach had AUCs of 0.656 (95% CI=0.635-0.677) in African and 0.844 (95% CI=0.840-0.848) in European ancestry men and corresponding prostate cancer OR of 1.83 (95% CI=1.67-2.00) and 2.19 (95% CI=2.14-2.25), respectively, for each SD unit increase in the GW-PRS. However, compared to the GW-PRS, in African and European ancestry men, the PRS 269 had larger or similar AUCs (AUC=0.679, 95% CI=0.659-0.700 and AUC=0.845, 95% CI=0.841-0.849, respectively) and comparable prostate cancer OR (OR=2.05, 95% CI=1.87-2.26 and OR=2.21, 95% CI=2.16-2.26, respectively). Findings were similar in the validation data. This investigation suggests that current GW-PRS approaches may not improve the ability to predict prostate cancer risk compared to the multi-ancestry PRS 269 constructed with fine-mapping.

Polygenic Risk Score in African populations: progress and challenges

Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) analysis is a method that predicts the genetic risk of an individual towards targeted traits. Even when there are no significant markers, it gives evidence of a genetic effect beyond the results of Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS). Moreover, it selects  single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that  contribute to the disease with low effect size  making it more precise at individual level risk prediction. PRS  analysis addresses the shortfall of GWAS by taking into account the SNPs/alleles with  low effect size but play an indispensable role to the observed phenotypic/trait variance.  PRS analysis has  applications that investigate the genetic basis of several traits, which includes rare diseases. However, the accuracy of PRS analysis depends on the genomic data of the underlying population. For instance, several studies  show   that obtaining higher prediction power of PRS analysis is challenging for non-Europeans. In this manuscript, we review the conventional PRS methods and their application to sub-Saharan African communities. We conclude that  lack of sufficient GWAS data and tools is  the limiting factor of applying PRS analysis to sub-Saharan populations.   We recommend developing Africa-specific PRS methods and tools for estimating and analyzing  African population data   for clinical  evaluation of PRSs of interest and predicting  rare diseases.

Polygenic Risk Score in African populations: progress and challenges

Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) analysis is a method that predicts the genetic risk of an individual towards targeted traits. Even when there are no significant markers, it gives evidence of a genetic effect beyond the results of Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS). Moreover, it selects  single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that  contribute to the disease with low effect size  making it more precise at individual level risk prediction. PRS  analysis addresses the shortfall of GWAS by taking into account the SNPs/alleles with  low effect size but play an indispensable role to the observed phenotypic/trait variance.  PRS analysis has  applications that investigate the genetic basis of several traits, which includes rare diseases. However, the accuracy of PRS analysis depends on the genomic data of the underlying population. For instance, several studies  show   that obtaining higher prediction power of PRS analysis is challenging for non-Europeans. In this manuscript, we review the conventional PRS methods and their application to sub-Saharan African communities. We conclude that  lack of sufficient GWAS data and tools is  the limiting factor of applying PRS analysis to sub-Saharan populations.   We recommend developing Africa-specific PRS methods and tools for estimating and analyzing  African population data   for clinical  evaluation of PRSs of interest and predicting  rare diseases.

Learning high-order interactions for polygenic risk prediction

Within the framework of precision medicine, the stratification of individual genetic susceptibility based on inherited DNA variation has paramount relevance. However, one of the most relevant pitfalls of traditional Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS) approaches is their inability to model complex high-order non-linear SNP-SNP interactions and their effect on the phenotype (e.g. epistasis). Indeed, they incur in a computational challenge as the number of possible interactions grows exponentially with the number of SNPs considered, affecting the statistical reliability of the model parameters as well. In this work, we address this issue by proposing a novel PRS approach, called High-order Interactions-aware Polygenic Risk Score (hiPRS), that incorporates high-order interactions in modeling polygenic risk. The latter combines an interaction search routine based on frequent itemsets mining and a novel interaction selection algorithm based on Mutual Information, to construct a simple and interpretable weighted model of user-specified dimensionality that can predict a given binary phenotype. Compared to traditional PRSs methods, hiPRS does not rely on GWAS summary statistics nor any external information. Moreover, hiPRS differs from Machine Learning-based approaches that can include complex interactions in that it provides a readable and interpretable model and it is able to control overfitting, even on small samples. In the present work we demonstrate through a comprehensive simulation study the superior performance of hiPRS w.r.t. state of the art methods, both in terms of scoring performance and interpretability of the resulting model. We also test hiPRS against small sample size, class imbalance and the presence of noise, showcasing its robustness to extreme experimental settings. Finally, we apply hiPRS to a case study on real data from DACHS cohort, defining an interaction-aware scoring model to predict mortality of stage II-III Colon-Rectal Cancer patients treated with oxaliplatin.

A comprehensive investigation of statistical and machine learning approaches for predicting complex human diseases on genomic variants

Quantifying an individual's risk for common diseases is an important goal of precision health. The polygenic risk score (PRS), which aggregates multiple risk alleles of candidate diseases, has emerged as a standard approach for identifying high-risk individuals. Although several studies have been performed to benchmark the PRS calculation tools and assess their potential to guide future clinical applications, some issues remain to be further investigated, such as lacking (i) various simulated data with different genetic effects; (ii) evaluation of machine learning models and (iii) evaluation on multiple ancestries studies. In this study, we systematically validated and compared 13 statistical methods, 5 machine learning models and 2 ensemble models using simulated data with additive and genetic interaction models, 22 common diseases with internal training sets, 4 common diseases with external summary statistics and 3 common diseases for trans-ancestry studies in UK Biobank. The statistical methods were better in simulated data from additive models and machine learning models have edges for data that include genetic interactions. Ensemble models are generally the best choice by integrating various statistical methods. LDpred2 outperformed the other standalone tools, whereas PRS-CS, lassosum and DBSLMM showed comparable performance. We also identified that disease heritability strongly affected the predictive performance of all methods. Both the number and effect sizes of risk SNPs are important; and sample size strongly influences the performance of all methods. For the trans-ancestry studies, we found that the performance of most methods became worse when training and testing sets were from different populations.

Combining Asian-European Genome-Wide Association Studies of Colorectal Cancer Improves Risk Prediction Across Race and Ethnicity

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have great potential to guide precision colorectal cancer (CRC) prevention by identifying those at higher risk to undertake targeted screening. However, current PRS using European ancestry data have sub-optimal performance in non-European ancestry populations, limiting their utility among these populations. Towards addressing this deficiency, we expanded PRS development for CRC by incorporating Asian ancestry data (21,731 cases; 47,444 controls) into European ancestry training datasets (78,473 cases; 107,143 controls). The AUC estimates (95% CI) of PRS were 0.63(0.62-0.64), 0.59(0.57-0.61), 0.62(0.60-0.63), and 0.65(0.63-0.66) in independent datasets including 1,681-3,651 cases and 8,696-115,105 controls of Asian, Black/African American, Latinx/Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White, respectively. They were significantly better than the European-centric PRS in all four major US racial and ethnic groups (p-values<0.05). Further inclusion of non-European ancestry populations, especially Black/African American and Latinx/Hispanic, is needed to improve the risk prediction and enhance equity in applying PRS in clinical practice.

Polygenic power calculator: Statistical power and polygenic prediction accuracy of genome-wide association studies of complex traits

Power calculation is a necessary step when planning genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to ensure meaningful findings. Statistical power of GWAS depends on the genetic architecture of phenotype, sample size, and study design. While several computer programs have been developed to perform power calculation for single SNP association testing, it might be more appropriate for GWAS power calculation to address the probability of detecting any number of associated SNPs. In this paper, we derive the statistical power distribution across causal SNPs under the assumption of a point-normal effect size distribution. We demonstrate how key outcome indices of GWAS are related to the genetic architecture (heritability and polygenicity) of the phenotype through the power distribution. We also provide a fast, flexible and interactive power calculation tool which generates predictions for key GWAS outcomes including the number of independent significant SNPs, the phenotypic variance explained by these SNPs, and the predictive accuracy of resulting polygenic scores. These results could also be used to explore the future behaviour of GWAS as sample sizes increase further. Moreover, we present results from simulation studies to validate our derivation and evaluate the agreement between our predictions and reported GWAS results.

The Role of Polygenic Susceptibility on Air Pollution-Associated Asthma between German and Japanese Elderly Women

Polygenic susceptibility likely influences individual responses to air pollutants and the risk of asthma. We compared the role of polygenic susceptibility on air pollution-associated asthma between German and Japanese women. We investigated women that were enrolled in the German SALIA cohort (n = 771, mean age = 73 years) and the Japanese Shika cohort (n = 847, mean age = 67 years) with known asthma status. Adjusted logistic regression models were used to assess the associations between (1) particulate matter with a median aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5μm (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), (2) polygenic risk scores (PRS), and (3) gene-environment interactions (G × E) with asthma. We found an increased risk of asthma in Japanese women after exposure to low pollutant levels (PM2.5: median = 12.7µg/m3, p-value < 0.001, NO2: median = 8.5µg/m3, p-value < 0.001) and in German women protective polygenic effects (p-value = 0.008). While we found no significant G × E effects, the direction in both groups was that the PRS increased the effect of PM2.5 and decreased the effect of NO2 on asthma. Our study confirms that exposure to low air pollution levels increases the risk of asthma in Japanese women and indicates polygenic effects in German women; however, there was no evidence of G × E effects. Future genome-wide G × E studies should further explore the role of ethnic-specific polygenic susceptibility to asthma.

Fully exploiting SNP arrays: a systematic review on the tools to extract underlying genomic structure

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are the most abundant type of genomic variation and the most accessible to genotype in large cohorts. However, they individually explain a small proportion of phenotypic differences between individuals. Ancestry, collective SNP effects, structural variants, somatic mutations or even differences in historic recombination can potentially explain a high percentage of genomic divergence. These genetic differences can be infrequent or laborious to characterize; however, many of them leave distinctive marks on the SNPs across the genome allowing their study in large population samples. Consequently, several methods have been developed over the last decade to detect and analyze different genomic structures using SNP arrays, to complement genome-wide association studies and determine the contribution of these structures to explain the phenotypic differences between individuals. We present an up-to-date collection of available bioinformatics tools that can be used to extract relevant genomic information from SNP array data including population structure and ancestry; polygenic risk scores; identity-by-descent fragments; linkage disequilibrium; heritability and structural variants such as inversions, copy number variants, genetic mosaicisms and recombination histories. From a systematic review of recently published applications of the methods, we describe the main characteristics of R packages, command-line tools and desktop applications, both free and commercial, to help make the most of a large amount of publicly available SNP data.

A data-adaptive Bayesian regression approach for polygenic risk prediction

MOTIVATION

Polygenic risk score (PRS) has been widely exploited for genetic risk prediction due to its accuracy and conceptual simplicity. We introduce a unified Bayesian regression framework, NeuPred, for PRS construction, which accommodates varying genetic architectures and improves overall prediction accuracy for complex diseases by allowing for a wide class of prior choices. To take full advantage of the framework, we propose a summary-statistics-based cross-validation strategy to automatically select suitable chromosome-level priors, which demonstrates a striking variability of the prior preference of each chromosome, for the same complex disease, and further significantly improves the prediction accuracy.

RESULTS

Simulation studies and real data applications with seven disease datasets from the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium cohort and eight groups of large-scale genome-wide association studies demonstrate that NeuPred achieves substantial and consistent improvements in terms of predictive r2 over existing methods. In addition, NeuPred has similar or advantageous computational efficiency compared with the state-of-the-art Bayesian methods.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

The R package implementing NeuPred is available at https://github.com/shuangsong0110/NeuPred.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

A polygenic approach to the association between smoking and schizophrenia

Smoking prevalence in schizophrenia is considerably larger than in general population, playing an important role in early mortality. We compared the polygenic contribution to smoking in schizophrenic patients and controls to assess if genetic factors may explain the different prevalence. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for smoking initiation and four genetically correlated traits were calculated in 1108 schizophrenic patients (64.4% smokers) and 1584 controls (31.1% smokers). PRSs for smoking initiation, educational attainment, body mass index and age at first birth were associated with smoking in patients and controls, explaining a similar percentage of variance in both groups. Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) PRS was associated with smoking only in schizophrenia. This association remained significant after adjustment by psychiatric cross-disorder PRS. A PRS combining all the traits was more explanative than smoking initiation PRS alone, indicating that genetic susceptibility to the other traits plays an additional role in smoking behaviour. Smoking initiation PRS was also associated with schizophrenia in the whole sample, but the significance was lost after adjustment for smoking status. This same pattern was observed in the analysis of specific SNPs at the CHRNA5-CHRNA3-CHRNB4 cluster associated with both traits. Overall, the results indicate that the same genetic factors are involved in smoking susceptibility in schizophrenia and in general population and are compatible with smoking acting, directly or indirectly, as a risk factor for schizophrenia that contributes to the high prevalence of smoking in these patients. The contrasting results for ADHD PRS may be related to higher ADHD symptomatology in schizophrenic patients.

Novel strategy for disease risk prediction incorporating predicted gene expression and DNA methylation data: a multi-phased study of prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

DNA methylation and gene expression are known to play important roles in the etiology of human diseases such as prostate cancer (PCa). However, it has not yet been possible to incorporate information of DNA methylation and gene expression into polygenic risk scores (PRSs). Here, we aimed to develop and validate an improved PRS for PCa risk by incorporating genetically predicted gene expression and DNA methylation, and other genomic information using an integrative method.

METHODS

Using data from the PRACTICAL consortium, we derived multiple sets of genetic scores, including those based on available single-nucleotide polymorphisms through widely used methods of pruning and thresholding, LDpred, LDpred-funt, AnnoPred, and EBPRS, as well as PRS constructed using the genetically predicted gene expression and DNA methylation through a revised pruning and thresholding strategy. In the tuning step, using the UK Biobank data (1458 prevalent cases and 1467 controls), we selected PRSs with the best performance. Using an independent set of data from the UK Biobank, we developed an integrative PRS combining information from individual scores. Furthermore, in the testing step, we tested the performance of the integrative PRS in another independent set of UK Biobank data of incident cases and controls.

RESULTS

Our constructed PRS had improved performance (C statistics: 76.1%) over PRSs constructed by individual benchmark methods (from 69.6% to 74.7%). Furthermore, our new PRS had much higher risk assessment power than family history. The overall net reclassification improvement was 69.0% by adding PRS to the baseline model compared with 12.5% by adding family history.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated a new PRS which may improve the utility in predicting the risk of developing PCa. Our innovative method can also be applied to other human diseases to improve risk prediction across multiple outcomes.

Genetic prediction of complex traits with polygenic scores: a statistical review

Accurate genetic prediction of complex traits can facilitate disease screening, improve early intervention, and aid in the development of personalized medicine. Genetic prediction of complex traits requires the development of statistical methods that can properly model polygenic architecture and construct a polygenic score (PGS). We present a comprehensive review of 46 methods for PGS construction. We connect the majority of these methods through a multiple linear regression framework which can be instrumental for understanding their prediction performance for traits with distinct genetic architectures. We discuss the practical considerations of PGS analysis as well as challenges and future directions of PGS method development. We hope our review serves as a useful reference both for statistical geneticists who develop PGS methods and for data analysts who perform PGS analysis.

A polygenic risk score for asthma in a large racially diverse population

BACKGROUND

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) will have important utility for asthma and other chronic diseases as a tool for predicting disease incidence and subphenotypes.

OBJECTIVE

We utilized findings from a large multiancestry GWAS of asthma to compute a PRS for asthma with relevance for racially diverse populations.

METHODS

We derived two PRSs for asthma using a standard approach (based on genome-wide significant variants) and a lasso sum regression approach (allowing all genetic variants to potentially contribute). We used data from the racially diverse Kaiser Permanente GERA cohort (68 638 non-Hispanic Whites, 5874 Hispanics, 6870 Asians and 2760 Blacks). Race was self-reported by questionnaire.

RESULTS

For the standard PRS, non-Hispanic Whites showed the highest odds ratio for a standard deviation increase in PRS for asthma (OR = 1.16 (95% CI 1.14-1.18)). The standard PRS was also associated with asthma in Hispanic (OR = 1.12 (95% CI 1.05-1.19)) and Asian (OR = 1.10 (95% CI 1.04-1.17)) subjects, with a trend towards increased risk in Blacks (OR = 1.05 (95% CI 0.97-1.15)). We detected an interaction by sex, with men showing a higher risk of asthma with an increase in PRS as compared to women. The lasso sum regression-derived PRS showed stronger associations with asthma in non-Hispanic White subjects (OR = 1.20 (95% CI 1.18-1.23)), Hispanics (OR = 1.17 (95% 1.10-1.26)), Asians (OR = 1.18 (95% CI 1.10-1.27)) and Blacks (OR = 1.10 (95% CI 0.99-1.22)).

CONCLUSION

Polygenic risk scores across multiple racial/ethnic groups were associated with increased asthma risk, suggesting that PRSs have potential as a tool for predicting disease development.

Evaluation of low-pass genome sequencing in polygenic risk score calculation for Parkinson's disease

Background

Low-pass sequencing (LPS) has been extensively investigated for applicability to various genetic studies due to its advantages over genotype array data including cost-effectiveness. Predicting the risk of complex diseases such as Parkinson’s disease (PD) using polygenic risk score (PRS) based on the genetic variations has shown decent prediction accuracy. Although ultra-LPS has been shown to be effective in PRS calculation, array data has been favored to the majority of PRS analysis, especially for PD.

Results

Using eight high-coverage WGS, we assessed imputation approaches for downsampled LPS data ranging from 0.5 × to 7.0 × . We demonstrated that uncertain genotype calls of LPS diminished imputation accuracy, and an imputation approach using genotype likelihoods was plausible for LPS. Additionally, comparing imputation accuracies between LPS and simulated array illustrated that LPS had higher accuracies particularly at rare frequencies. To evaluate ultra-low coverage data in PRS calculation for PD, we prepared low-coverage WGS and genotype array of 87 PD cases and 101 controls. Genotype imputation of array and downsampled LPS were conducted using a population-specific reference panel, and we calculated risk scores based on the PD-associated SNPs from an East Asian meta-GWAS. The PRS models discriminated cases and controls as previously reported when both LPS and genotype array were used. Also strong correlations in PRS models for PD between LPS and genotype array were discovered.

Conclusions

Overall, this study highlights the potentials of LPS under 1.0 × followed by genotype imputation in PRS calculation and suggests LPS as attractive alternatives to genotype array in the area of precision medicine for PD.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40246-021-00357-w.

A novel transcriptional risk score for risk prediction of complex human diseases

Recently polygenetic risk score (PRS) has been successfully used in the risk prediction of complex human diseases. Many studies incorporated internal information, such as effect size distribution, or external information, such as linkage disequilibrium, functional annotation, and pleiotropy among multiple diseases, to optimize the performance of PRS. To leverage on multiomics datasets, we developed a novel flexible transcriptional risk score (TRS), in which messenger RNA expression levels were imputed and weighted for risk prediction. In simulation studies, we demonstrated that single-tissue TRS has greater prediction power than LDpred, especially when there is a large effect of gene expression on the phenotype. Multitissue TRS improves prediction accuracy when there are multiple tissues with independent contributions to disease risk. We applied our method to complex traits, including Crohn's disease, type 2 diabetes, and so on. The single-tissue TRS method outperformed LDpred and AnnoPred across the tested traits. The performance of multitissue TRS is trait-dependent. Moreover, our method can easily incorporate information from epigenomic and proteomic data upon the availability of reference datasets.

Advances and challenges in quantitative delineation of the genetic architecture of complex traits

Background

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been widely adopted in studies of human complex traits and diseases.

Results

This review surveys areas of active research: quantifying and partitioning trait heritability, fine mapping functional variants and integrative analysis, genetic risk prediction of phenotypes, and the analysis of sequencing studies that have identified millions of rare variants. Current challenges and opportunities are highlighted.

Conclusion

GWAS have fundamentally transformed the field of human complex trait genetics. Novel statistical and computational methods have expanded the scope of GWAS and have provided valuable insights on the genetic architecture underlying complex phenotypes.

Genetic predisposition to alcohol dependence: The combined role of polygenic risk to general psychopathology and to high alcohol consumption

BACKGROUND

High alcohol consumption and alcohol dependence are only partly genetically correlated and they differ considerably in their correlations with other traits. The existence of genetic correlation among alcohol dependence and psychiatric disorders may be attributed to the presence of a general psychopathology factor, the p factor. This study investigates the relationship of polygenic risk to general psychopathology and to high alcohol consumption on alcohol dependence.

METHODS

Participants were 524 alcohol-dependent patients and 729 controls. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) were computed for alcohol consumption (drinks per week) and nine psychiatric disorders. Principal component analysis (PCA) applied to the psychiatric PRS was used to calculate the first principal component as a proxy of the polygenic p factor.

RESULTS

Both the polygenic p factor and the drinks per week PRS were associated with alcohol dependence in our sample. Both variables are only weakly correlated, contributing additively to the risk for alcohol dependence. Sensitivity analyses showed that the polygenic p factor was also associated with alcohol dependence in the subset of patients without any psychiatric or substance use comorbidity.

CONCLUSIONS

Polygenic risk for alcohol dependence can be split at least into two components, involved in general psychopathology and high alcohol consumption. The first component of PCA based on PRS for different psychiatric disorders allows estimation of the contribution of the polygenic p factor to alcohol dependence. The pleiotropic effects of genetic variants across psychiatric disorders are mainly manifested as alcohol dependence in some patients.

Penalized regression and model selection methods for polygenic scores on summary statistics

Polygenic scores quantify the genetic risk associated with a given phenotype and are widely used to predict the risk of complex diseases. There has been recent interest in developing methods to construct polygenic risk scores using summary statistic data. We propose a method to construct polygenic risk scores via penalized regression using summary statistic data and publicly available reference data. Our method bears similarity to existing method LassoSum, extending their framework to the Truncated Lasso Penalty (TLP) and the elastic net. We show via simulation and real data application that the TLP improves predictive accuracy as compared to the LASSO while imposing additional sparsity where appropriate. To facilitate model selection in the absence of validation data, we propose methods for estimating model fitting criteria AIC and BIC. These methods approximate the AIC and BIC in the case where we have a polygenic risk score estimated on summary statistic data and no validation data. Additionally, we propose the so-called quasi-correlation metric, which quantifies the predictive accuracy of a polygenic risk score applied to out-of-sample data for which we have only summary statistic information. In total, these methods facilitate estimation and model selection of polygenic risk scores on summary statistic data, and the application of these polygenic risk scores to out-of-sample data for which we have only summary statistic information. We demonstrate the utility of these methods by applying them to GWA studies of lipids, height, and lung cancer.