Mathematical modeling of hepatitis C RNA replication, exosome secretion and virus release

A detailed kinetic model of Eastern equine encephalitis virus replication in a susceptible host cell

Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) is an arthropod-borne, positive-sense RNA alphavirus posing a substantial threat to public health. Unlike similar viruses such as SARS-CoV-2, EEEV replicates efficiently in neurons, producing progeny viral particles as soon as 3-4 hours post-infection. EEEV infection, which can cause severe encephalitis with a human mortality rate surpassing 30%, has no licensed, targeted therapies, leaving patients to rely on supportive care. Although the general characteristics of EEEV infection within the host cell are well-studied, it remains unclear how these interactions lead to rapid production of progeny viral particles, limiting development of antiviral therapies. Here, we present a novel rule-based model that describes attachment, entry, uncoating, replication, assembly, and export of both infectious virions and virus-like particles within mammalian cells. Additionally, it quantitatively characterizes host ribosome activity in EEEV replication via a model parameter defining ribosome density on viral RNA. To calibrate the model, we performed experiments to quantify viral RNA, protein, and infectious particle production during acute infection. We used Bayesian inference to calibrate the model, discovering in the process that an additional constraint was required to ensure consistency with previous experimental observations of a high ratio between the amounts of full-length positive-sense viral genome and negative-sense template strand. Overall, the model recapitulates the experimental data and predicts that EEEV rapidly concentrates host ribosomes densely on viral RNA. Dense packing of host ribosomes was determined to be critical to establishing the characteristic positive to negative RNA strand ratio because of its role in governing the kinetics of transcription. Sensitivity analysis identified viral transcription as the critical step for infectious particle production, making it a potential target for future therapeutic development.

Emerging role of exosomes during the pathogenesis of viral hepatitis, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis and alcoholic hepatitis

Extracellular vesicles (EVs) refer to a diverse range of membranous vesicles that are secreted by various cell types, they can be categorized into two primary subgroups: exosomes and microvesicles. Specifically, exosomes constitute a nanosized subset of EVs characterized by their intact lipid bilayer and diameters ranging from 30 to 150 nm. These vesicles play a crucial role in intercellular communication by transporting a diverse array of biomolecules, which act as cargoes for this communication process. Exosomes have demonstrated significant implications in a wide range of biologic processes and pathologic conditions, including immunity, development, cancer, neurodegenerative diseases, and liver diseases. Liver diseases significantly contribute to the global burden of morbidity and mortality, yet their pathogenesis remains complex and effective therapies are relatively scarce. Emerging evidence suggests that exosomes play a modulatory role in the pathogenesis of liver diseases, including viral hepatitis, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and alcoholic hepatitis (AH). These findings bolster our confidence in the potential of exosomes as biomarkers and therapeutic tools for the diagnosis and treatment of liver diseases. In this comprehensive review, we offer a straightforward overview of exosomes and summarize the current understanding of their role in the pathogenesis of liver diseases. This provides a foundation for novel diagnostic and therapeutic approaches in the treatment of liver diseases.

How robust are estimates of key parameters in standard viral dynamic models?

Mathematical models of viral infection have been developed, fitted to data, and provide insight into disease pathogenesis for multiple agents that cause chronic infection, including HIV, hepatitis C, and B virus. However, for agents that cause acute infections or during the acute stage of agents that cause chronic infections, viral load data are often collected after symptoms develop, usually around or after the peak viral load. Consequently, we frequently lack data in the initial phase of viral growth, i.e., when pre-symptomatic transmission events occur. Missing data may make estimating the time of infection, the infectious period, and parameters in viral dynamic models, such as the cell infection rate, difficult. However, having extra information, such as the average time to peak viral load, may improve the robustness of the estimation. Here, we evaluated the robustness of estimates of key model parameters when viral load data prior to the viral load peak is missing, when we know the values of some parameters and/or the time from infection to peak viral load. Although estimates of the time of infection are sensitive to the quality and amount of available data, particularly pre-peak, other parameters important in understanding disease pathogenesis, such as the loss rate of infected cells, are less sensitive. Viral infectivity and the viral production rate are key parameters affecting the robustness of data fits. Fixing their values to literature values can help estimate the remaining model parameters when pre-peak data is missing or limited. We find a lack of data in the pre-peak growth phase underestimates the time to peak viral load by several days, leading to a shorter predicted growth phase. On the other hand, knowing the time of infection (e.g., from epidemiological data) and fixing it results in good estimates of dynamical parameters even in the absence of early data. While we provide ways to approximate model parameters in the absence of early viral load data, our results also suggest that these data, when available, are needed to estimate model parameters more precisely.

Mathematical modeling of plus-strand RNA virus replication to identify broad-spectrum antiviral treatment strategies

Plus-strand RNA viruses are the largest group of viruses. Many are human pathogens that inflict a socio-economic burden. Interestingly, plus-strand RNA viruses share remarkable similarities in their replication. A hallmark of plus-strand RNA viruses is the remodeling of intracellular membranes to establish replication organelles (so-called "replication factories"), which provide a protected environment for the replicase complex, consisting of the viral genome and proteins necessary for viral RNA synthesis. In the current study, we investigate pan-viral similarities and virus-specific differences in the life cycle of this highly relevant group of viruses. We first measured the kinetics of viral RNA, viral protein, and infectious virus particle production of hepatitis C virus (HCV), dengue virus (DENV), and coxsackievirus B3 (CVB3) in the immuno-compromised Huh7 cell line and thus without perturbations by an intrinsic immune response. Based on these measurements, we developed a detailed mathematical model of the replication of HCV, DENV, and CVB3 and showed that only small virus-specific changes in the model were necessary to describe the in vitro dynamics of the different viruses. Our model correctly predicted virus-specific mechanisms such as host cell translation shut off and different kinetics of replication organelles. Further, our model suggests that the ability to suppress or shut down host cell mRNA translation may be a key factor for in vitro replication efficiency, which may determine acute self-limited or chronic infection. We further analyzed potential broad-spectrum antiviral treatment options in silico and found that targeting viral RNA translation, such as polyprotein cleavage and viral RNA synthesis, may be the most promising drug targets for all plus-strand RNA viruses. Moreover, we found that targeting only the formation of replicase complexes did not stop the in vitro viral replication early in infection, while inhibiting intracellular trafficking processes may even lead to amplified viral growth.

Mathematical modeling of plus-strand RNA virus replication to identify broad-spectrum antiviral treatment strategies

Plus-strand RNA viruses are the largest group of viruses. Many are human pathogens that inflict a socio-economic burden. Interestingly, plus-strand RNA viruses share remarkable similarities in their replication. A hallmark of plus-strand RNA viruses is the remodeling of intracellular membranes to establish replication organelles (so-called "replication factories"), which provide a protected environment for the replicase complex, consisting of the viral genome and proteins necessary for viral RNA synthesis. In the current study, we investigate pan-viral similarities and virus-specific differences in the life cycle of this highly relevant group of viruses. We first measured the kinetics of viral RNA, viral protein, and infectious virus particle production of hepatitis C virus (HCV), dengue virus (DENV), and coxsackievirus B3 (CVB3) in the immuno-compromised Huh7 cell line and thus without perturbations by an intrinsic immune response. Based on these measurements, we developed a detailed mathematical model of the replication of HCV, DENV, and CVB3 and show that only small virus-specific changes in the model were necessary to describe the in vitro dynamics of the different viruses. Our model correctly predicted virus-specific mechanisms such as host cell translation shut off and different kinetics of replication organelles. Further, our model suggests that the ability to suppress or shut down host cell mRNA translation may be a key factor for in vitro replication efficiency which may determine acute self-limited or chronic infection. We further analyzed potential broad-spectrum antiviral treatment options in silico and found that targeting viral RNA translation, especially polyprotein cleavage, and viral RNA synthesis may be the most promising drug targets for all plus-strand RNA viruses. Moreover, we found that targeting only the formation of replicase complexes did not stop the viral replication in vitro early in infection, while inhibiting intracellular trafficking processes may even lead to amplified viral growth.

Author summary

Plus-strand RNA viruses comprise a large group of related and medically relevant viruses. The current global pandemic of COVID-19 caused by the SARS-coronavirus-2 as well as the constant spread of diseases such as dengue and chikungunya fever show the necessity of a comprehensive and precise analysis of plus-strand RNA virus infections. Plus-strand RNA viruses share similarities in their life cycle. To understand their within-host replication strategies, we developed a mathematical model that studies pan-viral similarities and virus-specific differences of three plus-strand RNA viruses, namely hepatitis C, dengue, and coxsackievirus. By fitting our model to in vitro data, we found that only small virus-specific variations in the model were required to describe the dynamics of all three viruses. Furthermore, our model predicted that ribosomes involved in viral RNA translation seem to be a key player in plus-strand RNA replication efficiency, which may determine acute or chronic infection outcome. Furthermore, our in-silico drug treatment analysis suggests that targeting viral proteases involved in polyprotein cleavage, in combination with viral RNA replication, may represent promising drug targets with broad-spectrum antiviral activity.