Opioid agonist treatment scale-up and the initiation of injection drug use: A dynamic modeling analysis

A Dynamic Model of Opioid Overdose Deaths in Canada during the Co-Occurring Opioid Overdose Crisis and COVID-19 Pandemic

With over 40,000 opioid-related overdose deaths between January 2016 and June 2023, the opioid-overdose crisis is a significant public health concern for Canada. The opioid crisis arose from a complex system involving prescription opioid use, the use of prescription opioids not as prescribed, and non-medical opioid use. The increasing presence of fentanyl and its analogues in the illegal drugs supply has been an important driver of the crisis. In response to the overdose crisis, governments at the municipal, provincial/territorial, and federal levels have increased actions to address opioid-related harms. At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, concerns emerged over how the pandemic context may impact the opioid overdose crisis. Using evidence from a number of sources, we developed a dynamic mathematical model of opioid overdose death to simulate possible trajectories of overdose deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic. This model incorporates information on prescription opioid use, opioid use not as prescribed, non-medical opioid use, the level of fentanyl in the drug supply, and a measure of the proportion deaths preventable by new interventions. The simulated scenarios provided decision makers with insight into possible trajectories of the opioid crisis in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the potential of the crisis to take a turn for the worse under certain assumptions, and thus, informing planning during a period when surveillance data were not yet available. This model provides a starting point for future models, and through its development, we have identified important data and evidence gaps that need to be filled in order to inform future action.

Latent polydrug use patterns and the provision of injection initiation assistance among people who inject drugs in three North American settings

INTRODUCTION

We sought to identify latent profiles of polysubstance use patterns among people who inject drugs in three distinct North American settings, and then determine whether profile membership was associated with providing injection initiation assistance to injection-naïve persons.

METHODS

Cross-sectional data from three linked cohorts in Vancouver, Canada; Tijuana, Mexico; and San Diego, USA were used to conduct separate latent profile analyses based on recent (i.e., past 6 months) injection and non-injection drug use frequency. We then assessed the association between polysubstance use patterns and recent injection initiation assistance provision using logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

A 6-class model for Vancouver participants, a 4-class model for Tijuana participants and a 4-class model for San Diego participants were selected based on statistical indices of fit and interpretability. In all settings, at least one profile included high-frequency polysubstance use of crystal methamphetamine and heroin. In Vancouver, several profiles were associated with a greater likelihood of providing recent injection initiation assistance compared to the referent profile (low-frequency use of all drugs) in unadjusted and adjusted analyses, however, the inclusion of latent profile membership in the multivariable model did not significantly improve model fit.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

We identified commonalities and differences in polysubstance use patterns among people who inject drugs in three settings disproportionately impacted by injection drug use. Our results also suggest that other factors may be of greater priority when tailoring interventions to reduce the incidence of injection initiation. These findings can aid in efforts to identify and support specific higher-risk subpopulations of people who inject drugs.

First-line opioid agonist treatment as prevention against assisting others in initiating injection drug use: A longitudinal cohort study of people who inject drugs in Vancouver, Canada

Background

Among people who inject drugs, frequent injecting and experiencing withdrawal are associated with facilitating others' first injections. As these factors may reflect an underlying substance use disorder, we investigated whether first-line oral opioid agonist treatment (OAT; methadone or buprenorphine/naloxone) reduces the likelihood that people who inject drugs help others initiate injecting.

Methods

We used questionnaire data from semi-annual visits between December 2014-May 2018 on 334 people who inject drugs with frequent non-medical opioid use in Vancouver, Canada. We estimated the effect of current first-line OAT on subsequent injection initiation assistance provision (i.e., helped someone initiate injecting in the following six months) using inverse-probability-weighted estimation of repeated measures marginal structural models to reduce confounding and informative censoring by time-fixed and time-varying covariates.

Results

By follow-up visit, 54-64% of participants reported current first-line OAT whereas 3.4-6.9% provided subsequent injection initiation assistance. Per the primary weighted estimate (n = 1114 person-visits), participants currently on first-line OAT (versus no OAT) were 50% less likely, on average, to subsequently help someone initiate injecting (relative risk [RR]=0.50, 95% CI=0.23-1.11). First-line OAT was associated with reduced risk of subsequent injection initiation assistance provision in participants who, at baseline, injected opioids less than daily (RR=0.15, 95% CI=0.05-0.44) but not in those who injected opioids daily (RR=0.86, 95% CI=0.35-2.11).

Conclusions

First-line OAT seemingly reduces the short-term likelihood that people who inject drugs facilitate first injections. However, the extent of this potential effect remains uncertain due to imprecise estimation and observed heterogeneity by baseline opioid injecting frequency.

The influence of poly-drug use patterns on the association between opioid agonist treatment engagement and injecting initiation assistance

BACKGROUND

Evidence suggests people who inject drugs (PWID) prescribed opioid agonist treatment (OAT) are less likely to provide injection drug use (IDU) initiation assistance. We investigated the association between OAT engagement and providing IDU initiation assistance across poly-drug use practices in Vancouver, Canada.

METHODS

Preventing Injecting by Modifying Existing Responses (PRIMER) is a prospective study seeking to identify structural interventions that reduce IDU initiation. We employed data from linked cohorts of PWID in Vancouver and extended the findings of a latent profile analysis (LPA). Multivariable logistic regression models were performed separately for the six poly-drug use LPA classes. The outcome was recently assisting others in IDU initiation; the independent variable was recent OAT engagement.

RESULTS

Among participants (n = 1218), 85 (7.0%) reported recently providing injection initiation assistance. When adjusting for age and sex, OAT engagement among those who reported a combination of high-frequency heroin and methamphetamine IDU and low-to-moderate-frequency prescription opioid IDU and methamphetamine non-injection drug use (NIDU) was associated with lower odds of IDU initiation assistance provision (Adjusted Odds Ratio [AOR]: 0.18, 95% CI: 0.05-0.63, P = 0.008). Significant associations were not detected among other LPA classes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings extend evidence suggesting that OAT may provide a population-level protective effect on the incidence of IDU initiation and suggest that this effect may be specific among PWID who engage in high-frequency methamphetamine and opioid use. Future research should seek to longitudinally investigate potential causal pathways explaining the association between OAT and initiation assistance provision among PWID to develop tailored intervention efforts.

Validation of Self-reported Opioid Agonist Treatment Among People Who Inject Drugs Using Prescription Dispensation Records

BACKGROUND

Studies of people who inject drugs (PWID) commonly use questionnaires to determine whether participants are currently, or have recently been, on opioid agonist treatment for opioid use disorder. However, these previously unvalidated self-reported treatment measures may be susceptible to inaccurate reporting.

METHODS

We linked baseline questionnaire data from 521 PWID in the Ontario integrated Supervised Injection Services cohort in Toronto (November 2018-March 2020) with record-level health administrative data. We assessed the validity (sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value [PPV and NPV]) of self-reported recent (in the past 6 months) and current (as of interview) opioid agonist treatment with methadone or buprenorphine-naloxone relative to prescription dispensation records from a provincial narcotics monitoring system, considered the reference standard.

RESULTS

For self-reported recent opioid agonist treatment, sensitivity was 78% (95% CI = 72, 83), specificity was 90% (95% CI = 86, 94), PPV was 90% (95% CI = 85, 93), and NPV was 79% (95% CI = 74, 84). For self-reported current opioid agonist treatment, sensitivity was 84% (95% CI = 78, 90), specificity was 87% (95% CI = 83, 91), PPV was 74% (95% CI = 67, 81), and NPV was 93% (95% CI = 89, 95).

CONCLUSIONS

Self-reported opioid agonist treatment measures were fairly accurate among PWID, with some exceptions. Inaccurate recall due to a lengthy lookback window may explain underreporting of recent treatment, whereas social desirability bias may have led to overreporting of current treatment. These validation data could be used in future studies of PWID to adjust for misclassification in similar self-reported treatment measures.

Factors Associated with Likelihood of Initiating Others into Injection Drug Use Among People Who Inject Drugs in West Virginia

People who inject drugs (PWID) play a critical role in injection-naïve individuals transitioning to injection drug use. We investigated factors associated with future likelihood of initiating injection-naïve individuals using multivariable logistic regression among 418 PWID in rural Appalachia (Cabell County, West Virginia). Less than 10% reported they were likely to initiate someone in the future. Acquiring syringes from a syringe services program was associated with decreased odds of being likely to initiate someone in the future (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.46, 95% CI 0.23, 0.95), while having previously initiated someone into injection drug use was associated with increased odds (aOR 8.65, 95% CI 4.07, 18.41). Among our sample of PWID in Appalachia, a small proportion reported that they would be likely to initiate an injection-naïve individual in the future. Efforts to reduce injection initiation assistance should focus on this subpopulation of PWID who indicate a willingness to engage in this behavior.

Involvement of people who inject drugs in injection initiation events: a cross-sectional analysis identifying similarities and differences across three North American settings

OBJECTIVES

People who inject drugs (PWID) play an integral role in facilitating the entry of others into injection drug use (IDU). We sought to assess factors influencing PWID in providing IDU initiation assistance across three distinct North American settings and to generate pooled measures of risk.

DESIGN

We employed data from three PWID cohort studies participating in PReventing Injecting by Modifying Existing Responses (PRIMER), for this cross-sectional analysis.

SETTING

Tijuana, Mexico; San Diego, USA; Vancouver, Canada.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 2944 participants were included in this study (Tijuana: n=766, San Diego: n=353, Vancouver: n=1825).

MEASUREMENTS

The outcome was defined as recently (ie, past 6 months) assisting in an IDU initiation event. Independent variables of interest were identified from previous PRIMER analyses. Site-specific multiple modified Poisson regressions were fit. Pooled relative risks (pRR) were calculated and heterogeneity across sites was assessed via linear random effects models.

RESULTS

Evidence across all three sites indicated that having a history of providing IDU initiation assistance (pRR: 4.83, 95% CI: 3.49 to 6.66) and recently being stopped by law enforcement (pRR: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.07 to 2.07) were associated with a higher risk of providing assistance with IDU initiation; while recent opioid agonist treatment (OAT) enrolment (pRR: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.43 to 0.96) and no recent IDU (pRR: 0.21, 95% CI: 0.07 to 0.64) were associated with a lower risk. We identified substantial differences across site in the association of age (I²: 52%), recent housing insecurity (I²: 39%) and recent non-injection heroin use (I²: 78%).

CONCLUSION

We identified common and site-specific factors related to PWID's risk of assisting in IDU initiation events. Individuals reporting a history of assisting IDU initiations, being recently stopped by law enforcement, and recently injecting methamphetamine/speedball were more likely to have recently assisted an IDU initiation. Whereas those who reported not recently engaging in IDU and those recently enrolled in OAT were less likely to have done so. Interventions and harm reduction strategies aimed at reducing the harms of IDU should incorporate context-specific approaches to reduce the initiation of IDU.

Investigating a bidirectional relationship between overdose and provision of injection initiation assistance among persons who inject drugs in Vancouver, Canada and Tijuana, Mexico

BACKGROUND

Individuals who initiate injection drug use often receive assistance from an injection-knowledgeable peer. Persons who assist peers in injection initiation events often inject frequently, which heightens overdose risk. As such, overdose and injection initiation events may be correlated. To explore a potential relationship, we assessed temporal associations between experiencing a non-fatal overdose and assisting others in initiating injection drug use among persons who inject drugs in two North American cities - Vancouver, Canada and Tijuana, Mexico.

METHODS

From 2014 to 2018, this retrospective cohort study included people who inject drugs from Vancouver (n=1332) and Tijuana (n=666) who completed a baseline and six-month follow-up interview. Within each site, we assessed bidirectional temporal associations using two separate multivariable logistic regression models: for model 1, recent provision of injection initiation assistance (at six months) was the outcome and recent overdose (at baseline) was the exposure; for model 2, recent overdose (at six months) was the outcome and recent provision of injection initiation assistance (at baseline) was the exposure. Both models adjusted for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Vancouver-based participants reporting overdose at baseline had 163% greater odds of reporting provision of injection initiation assistance at follow-up (adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR] 2.63; 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.41-4.90); while participants reporting provision of injection initiation assistance at baseline had 89% greater odds of reporting a non-fatal overdose at follow-up (aOR 1.89; 95% CI 1.00-3.57). Among Tijuana-based participants, we did not observe a statistically significant association in either direction.

CONCLUSION

Findings in Vancouver suggest that injection initiation assistance and overdose are bidirectionally-associated phenomena. The present findings highlight the need for interventions that ensure that persons who provide injection initiation assistance are given overdose prevention support, both for themselves and for those they assist to initiate injection drug use. While our Tijuana-based results did not suggest a bidirectional relationship, preventative approaches should nonetheless be undertaken.

Methodological approaches for the prediction of opioid use-related epidemics in the United States: a narrative review and cross-disciplinary call to action

The opioid crisis in the United States has been defined by waves of drug- and locality-specific Opioid use-Related Epidemics (OREs) of overdose and bloodborne infections, among a range of health harms. The ability to identify localities at risk of such OREs, and better yet, to predict which ones will experience them, holds the potential to mitigate further morbidity and mortality. This narrative review was conducted to identify and describe quantitative approaches aimed at the "risk assessment," "detection" or "prediction" of OREs in the United States. We implemented a PubMed search composed of the: (1) objective (eg, prediction), (2) epidemiologic outcome (eg, outbreak), (3) underlying cause (ie, opioid use), (4) health outcome (eg, overdose, HIV), (5) location (ie, US). In total, 46 studies were included, and the following information extracted: discipline, objective, health outcome, drug/substance type, geographic region/unit of analysis, and data sources. Studies identified relied on clinical, epidemiological, behavioral and drug markets surveillance and applied a range of methods including statistical regression, geospatial analyses, dynamic modeling, phylogenetic analyses and machine learning. Studies for the prediction of overdose mortality at national/state/county and zip code level are rapidly emerging. Geospatial methods are increasingly used to identify hotspots of opioid use and overdose. In the context of infectious disease OREs, routine genetic sequencing of patient samples to identify growing transmission clusters via phylogenetic methods could increase early detection capacity. A coordinated implementation of multiple, complementary approaches would increase our ability to successfully anticipate outbreak risk and respond preemptively. We present a multi-disciplinary framework for the prediction of OREs in the US and reflect on challenges research teams will face in implementing such strategies along with good practices.

The impact of recent homelessness on the provision of injection drug use initiation assistance among persons who inject drugs in Tijuana, Mexico and Vancouver, Canada

OBJECTIVE

To assess the relationship between experiencing homelessness and assisting injection drug use (IDU) initiation among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Tijuana, Mexico and Vancouver, Canada.

METHODS

We used self-reported questionnaire data collected semi-annually on PWID from Tijuana (n = 703) and Vancouver (n = 1551) between 2014 and 2017. Within each setting, the effect of recent (i.e., past six months) homelessness on recent provision of injection initiation assistance (i.e., helping anybody inject for the first time in the past six months) was estimated using inverse-probability-of-treatment (IPT)-weighted estimation of a marginal structural model.

RESULTS

Across follow-up, the prevalence of recent homelessness at a given visit ranged from 11.6%-16.5% among Tijuana-based participants and 9.4%-18.9% among Vancouver-based participants; the prevalence of recent provision of injection initiation at a given follow-up visit was lower, ranging from 3.3%-5.4% in Tijuana and 2.5%-4.1% in Vancouver. Based on the IPT-weighted estimates, recent homelessness was associated with 66% greater odds among Tijuana-based PWID (Adjusted Odds Ratio [AOR] = 1.66; 95% CI: 1.01-2.73) and 47% greater odds among Vancouver-based PWID (AOR = 1.47, 95% CI: 1.02-2.13) of providing injection initiation assistance over the same six-month period.

CONCLUSION

We found that recently experiencing homelessness was associated with an increased likelihood of PWID reporting IDU initiation assistance over time in both Tijuana and Vancouver. Addressing homelessness may decrease the initiation of IDU via multiple pathways.

Daily heroin injection and psychiatric disorders: A cross-sectional survey among People Who Inject Drugs (PWID) in Haiphong, Vietnam

BACKGROUND

Psychiatric comorbidities are frequent among people who inject drugs, they are associated with a poorer prognosis and need to be addressed. Their interaction with daily heroin injection requires clarification.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey was conducted among PWID recruited in the city of Haiphong, Vietnam, by respondent-driven sampling. The inclusion criteria were age 18 or older and current injection drug use, verified by skin marks and positive urine tests for heroin or methamphetamine. Data on socio-demographic characteristics, drug use, sexual behaviour and access to treatment were collected using face-to-face questionnaires by trained interviewers. PWID were screened by trained psychiatrists for depression, psychotic disorder and suicidality, using the MINI questionnaire.

RESULTS

418 participants were included in the analyses. All were injected heroin users, 21 % were diagnosed with a current major depressive disorder, 15 % with a current psychotic disorder and 12 % presented a suicide risk. In the bivariate analyses, regular meth use, cannabis use and ketamine use were positively associated with presenting at least one psychiatric condition while daily heroin injection and being currently treated with methadone were negatively associated. In the multivariate model, poly-substance use was positively associated with depression (methamphetamine and drinking in addition to heroin) and psychotic disorder (methamphetamine and/or hazardous drinking in addition to heroin) while daily heroin injection and current methadone treatment were negatively and independently associated with depression and psychotic syndrome.

CONCLUSIONS

Our survey confirms the burden of methamphetamine use and the protective effect of methadone but also a possible protective effect of daily heroin injection.

Prevalence and Correlates of Providing and Receiving Assistance With the Transition to Injection Drug Use

Preventing the transition to injection drug use is an important public health goal, as people who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for overdose and acquisition of infectious disease. Initiation into drug injection is primarily a social process, often involving PWID assistance. A better understanding of the epidemiology of this phenomenon would inform interventions to prevent injection initiation and to enhance safety when assistance is provided. We conducted a systematic review of the literature to 1) characterize the prevalence of receiving (among injection-naive persons) and providing (among PWID) help or guidance with the first drug injection and 2) identify correlates associated with these behaviors. Correlates were organized as substance use behaviors, health outcomes (e.g., human immunodeficiency virus infection), or factors describing an individual's social, economic, policy, or physical environment, defined by means of Rhodes' risk environments framework. After screening of 1,164 abstracts, 57 studies were included. The prevalence of receiving assistance with injection initiation (help or guidance at the first injection) ranged 74% to 100% (n = 13 estimates). The prevalence of ever providing assistance with injection initiation varied widely (range, 13%-69%; n = 13 estimates). Injecting norms, sex/gender, and other correlates classified within Rhodes' social risk environment were commonly associated with providing and receiving assistance. Nearly all PWID receive guidance about injecting for the first time, whereas fewer PWID report providing assistance. Substantial clinical and statistical heterogeneity between studies precluded meta-analysis, and thus local-level estimates may be necessary to guide the implementation of future psychosocial and sociostructural interventions. Further, estimates of providing assistance may be downwardly biased because of social desirability factors.

Development of a global index measuring national policy commitments to HIV prevention and treatment among people who inject drugs

BACKGROUND

People who inject drugs (PWID) around the world are disproportionately affected by the HIV epidemic. National policy responses to the epidemic heavily influence risk factors for HIV acquisition among this key group. Prior efforts to monitor national policy responses to HIV/AIDS among PWID were limited both in scope and coverage. In this paper we develop and validate the HIV-PWID Policy Index (HPPI) to benchmark and monitor national commitments to HIV prevention and treatment among PWID.

METHODS

Composite indicator was constructed employing fuzzy multilayer data envelopment analysis (FMLDEA). Model inputs based on data from 105 countries included 27 variables measured across six conceptual domains, including needle and syringe programs, opioid substitution treatment, testing and counseling, information and education, monitoring and evaluation, and legal and policy climate.

RESULTS

According to the HPPI, which ranges from 0 to 1, the top performing countries in policy commitments to HIV prevention and treatment among PWID were Spain (0.988), Switzerland (0.982), Luxembourg (0.970), Moldova (0.970), and Kyrgyzstan (0.945), whereas the poorest performing included Nicaragua (0.094), Japan, (0.094), Cape Verde (0.097), Syria (0.174), and Benin (0.185). Regionally, commitment to HIV services targeting PWID was highest among European countries (0.81) and lowest among African countries (0.50), with Oceania (0.76), Asia (0.66), and the Americas (0.56) in the mid-range. Subregional differences were even more prominent, with West and Central European nations (0.84) and Central American nations (0.22) earning the highest and lowest HPPI scores, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The HPPI documented substantial national and regional variation in policy responses to the HIV epidemic among PWID. Our analysis also revealed that many countries have limited HIV/AIDS data collection and monitoring capabilities. Continued enhancement and standardization of global HIV/AIDS monitoring efforts are therefore vital to articulated national and international benchmarking and performance assessment goals.

Recent incarceration and risk of first-time injection initiation assistance: A prospective cohort study of persons who inject drugs

BACKGROUND

Given the prevalence and harms of incarceration among persons who inject drugs (PWID) and their role in injection drug use initiation, we aimed to investigate whether recent incarceration influences the likelihood PWID assist others in their first-ever injection.

METHODS

Prospective cohort study of PWID in Vancouver, Canada who had their PReventing Injecting by Modifying Existing Responses (PRIMER) baseline visit between December 2014 and May 2017, reported never providing injection initiation assistance previously, and had ≥1 follow-up visit. The primary outcome, provision of injection initiation assistance, was defined via self-report as helping anybody inject for the first time in the past six months. The primary exposure was recent incarceration, i.e., self-report of being jailed, imprisoned or detained in the past six months. Participants were assessed biannually until November 2017, drop-out, or their first report of the primary outcome.

RESULTS

1,199 PWID (62.1% male; mean (SD) age, 44.4 (12.3) years) were included in our study. Across 4,171 follow-up visits, 67 participants (5.6%) reported providing injection initiation assistance. The proportion of participants reporting recent incarceration varied between 2.4% to 5.1% per follow-up visit. Based on a multivariable discrete-time proportional hazards regression analysis, recent incarceration was associated with an increased risk of providing injection initiation assistance during the same six-month period (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.64; 95% CI, 1.19 to 5.86).

CONCLUSIONS

The observed association between recent incarceration and risk of providing injection initiation assistance suggests that incarceration could be contributing to the expansion of injection drug use practices within vulnerable populations over time.

Farewell to Bright-Line: A Guide to Reporting Quantitative Results Without the S-Word

Recent calls to end the practice of categorizing findings based on statistical significance have focused on what not to do. Practitioners who subscribe to the conceptual basis behind these calls may be unaccustomed to presenting results in the nuanced and integrative manner that has been recommended as an alternative. This alternative is often presented as a vague proposal. Here, we provide practical guidance and examples for adopting a research evaluation posture and communication style that operates without bright-line significance testing. Characteristics of the structure of results communications that are based on conventional significance testing are presented. Guidelines for writing results without the use of bright-line significance testing are then provided. Examples of conventional styles for communicating results are presented. These examples are then modified to conform to recent recommendations. These examples demonstrate that basic modifications to written scientific communications can increase the information content of scientific reports without a loss of rigor. The adoption of alternative approaches to results presentations can help researchers comply with multiple recommendations and standards for the communication and reporting of statistics in the psychological sciences.

Addressing the context and consequences of substance use, misuse, and dependence: A global imperative

In an Editorial, Guest Editors Alexander Tsai, Margarita Alegria and Steffanie Strathdee discuss the accompanying Special Issue on Substance Use, Misuse and Dependence.