Estimated health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of eliminating industrial trans-fatty acids in Australia: A modelling study

Estimated health benefits, costs and cost-effectiveness of eliminating industrial trans-fatty acids in Nigeria: cost-effectiveness analysis

INTRODUCTION

Nigeria is committed to reducing industrial trans-fatty acids (iTFA) from the food supply, but the potential health gains, costs and cost-effectiveness are unknown.

METHODS

The effect on ischaemic heart disease (IHD) burden, costs and cost-effectiveness of a mandatory iTFA limit (≤2% of all fats) for foods in Nigeria were estimated using Markov cohort models. Data on demographics, IHD epidemiology and trans-fatty acid intake were derived from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. Avoided IHD events and deaths; health-adjusted life years (HALYs) gained; and healthcare, policy implementation and net costs were estimated over 10 years and the population's lifetime. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios using net costs and HALYs gained (both discounted at 3%) were used to assess cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

Over the first 10 years, a mandatory iTFA limit (assumed to eliminate iTFA intake) was estimated to prevent 9996 (95% uncertainty interval: 8870 to 11 118) IHD deaths and 66 569 (58 862 to 74 083) IHD events, and to save US$90 million (78 to 102) in healthcare costs. The corresponding lifetime estimates were 259 934 (228 736 to 290 191), 479 308 (95% UI 420 472 to 538 177) and 518 (450 to 587). Policy implementation costs were estimated at US$17 million (11 to 23) over the first 10 years, and US$26 million USD (19 to 33) over the population's lifetime. The intervention was estimated to be cost-saving, and findings were robust across several deterministic sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSION

Our findings support mandating a limit of iTFAs as a cost-saving strategy to reduce the IHD burden in Nigeria.

The burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to dietary risk factors in Australia between 1990 and 2019

Unhealthy diet is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). However, there are no studies reporting the impact and trends of dietary risk factors on CVD in Australia. This study aimed to determine the burden of CVDs attributable to dietary risk factors in Australia between 1990 and 2019. We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) study and quantified the rate (per 100,000) of deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with a disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs) for 21 CVDs attributable to 13 dietary risk factors (eight food groups and five nutrients) in Australia by sex and age groups (≥25 years and over). In 2019, the age-standardised rates of deaths, YLDs, YLLs, and DALYs attributable to dietary risk factors attributable to CVDs in the Australian population were 26.5, 60.8, 349.9, and 410.8 per 100,000 in women and 46.1, 62.6, 807.0, and 869.6 in men. Between 1990 and 2019, YLLs consistently contributed more towards the rates of DALYs than YLDs. Over the 30-year period, CVD deaths, YLLs, and DALYs attributable to dietary risk factors declined in both women and men. The leading dietary risk factors for CVD deaths and DALYs were a diet high in red meat (6.1 deaths per 100,000 [3.6, 8.7] and 115.6 DALYs per 100,000 [79.7, 151.6]) in women and a diet low in wholegrains (11.3 deaths [4.4, 15.1] and 220.3 DALYs [86.4, 291.8]) in men. Sex differences were observed in the contribution of dietary risk factors to CVD over time such that the lowest rate of decrease in deaths and DALYs occurred with diets high in sodium in women and diets high in processed meat in men. Although the burden of diet-related CVD has decreased significantly in the Australian population over the past 30 years, diets low in wholegrains and high in red meat continue to contribute significantly to the overall CVD burden. Future nutrition programs and policies should target these dietary risk factors.

The potential impact of policies and structural interventions in reducing cardiovascular disease and mortality: a systematic review of simulation-based studies

Background

The aim of the study was to investigate the potential effect of different structural interventions for preventing cardiovascular disease.

Methods

Medline and EMBASE were searched for peer-reviewed simulation-based studies of structural interventions for prevention of cardiovascular disease. We performed a systematic narrative synthesis.

Results

A total of 54 studies met the inclusion criteria. Diet, nutrition, tobacco and alcohol control and other programmes are among the policy simulation models explored. Food tax and subsidies, healthy food and lifestyles policies, palm oil tax, processed meat tax, reduction in ultra-processed foods, supplementary nutrition assistance programmes, stricter food policy and subsidised community-supported agriculture were among the diet and nutrition initiatives. Initiatives to reduce tobacco and alcohol use included a smoking ban, a national tobacco control initiative and a tax on alcohol. Others included the NHS Health Check, WHO 25 × 25 and air quality management policy.

Future work and limitations

There is significant heterogeneity in simulation models, making comparisons of output data impossible. While policy interventions typically include a variety of strategies, none of the models considered possible interrelationships between multiple policies or potential interactions. Research that investigates dose-response interactions between numerous modifications as well as longer-term clinical outcomes can help us better understand the potential impact of policy-level interventions.

Conclusions

The reviewed studies underscore the potential of structural interventions in addressing cardiovascular diseases. Notably, interventions in areas such as diet, tobacco, and alcohol control demonstrate a prospective decrease in cardiovascular incidents. However, to realize the full potential of such interventions, there is a pressing need for models that consider the interplay and cumulative impacts of multiple policies. Rigorous research into holistic and interconnected interventions will pave the way for more effective policy strategies in the future.

Study registration

The study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019154836.

Funding

This article presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme as award number 17/148/05.

Projecting cardiovascular deaths averted due to trans fat policies in the Eurasian Economic Union

OBJECTIVE

To demonstrate the potential impact on population health if policies designed to reduce population trans fatty acid (TFA) intake are successfully implemented in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in line with the WHO's guidelines to lower intake of TFA as a percentage of total energy intake to less than 1 %.

DESIGN

A projection exercise was conducted to estimate reductions in CVD-related deaths in countries of the EAEU if TFA policies are implemented in the EAEU. Plausibly causal, annual effects (in %) of Denmark's TFA policy on the evolution of CVD mortality rates were applied to project the potential effects of recently announced TFA policies in Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and the Russian Federation under three TFA exposure scenarios.

SETTINGS

Member States of the EAEU: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and the Russian Federation.

PARTICIPANTS

Data used for the projection exercise were based on estimates from natural experimental evidence from Denmark. National CVD mortality rates used were from WHO and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development datasets.

RESULTS

In all countries and in all scenarios, deaths averted were ≤ 5 deaths/100,000 in year 1 and rose in years 2 and 3. The highest projected impacts in the high-exposure scenario were seen in Kyrgyzstan (39 deaths/100 000), with the lowest occurring in Armenia (24 deaths/100 000).

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates the potential population health gains that can be derived from effective policies to reduce TFA in line with WHO guidance. Monitoring and surveillance systems are needed to evaluate the effectiveness of the TFA reduction policies in a national context.

Estimated health benefits, costs and cost-effectiveness of eliminating dietary industrial trans fatty acids in Kenya: cost-effectiveness analysis

OBJECTIVES

To model the potential health gains and cost-effectiveness of a mandatory limit of industrial trans fatty acids (iTFA) in Kenyan foods.

DESIGN

Multiple cohort proportional multistate life table model, incorporating existing data from the Global Burden of Disease study, pooled analyses of observational studies and peer-reviewed evidence of healthcare and policy implementation costs.

SETTING

Kenya.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults aged ≥20 years at baseline (n=50 million).

INTERVENTION

A mandatory iTFA limit (≤2% of all fats) in the Kenyan food supply compared with a base case scenario of maintaining current trans fat intake.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Averted ischaemic heart disease (IHD) events and deaths, health-adjusted life years; healthcare costs; policy implementation costs; net costs; and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.

RESULTS

Over the first 10 years, the intervention was estimated to prevent ~1900 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1714; 2148) IHD deaths and ~17 000 (95% UI: 15 475; 19 551) IHD events, and to save ~US$50 million (95% UI: 44; 56). The corresponding estimates over the lifespan of the model population were ~49 000 (95% UI: 43 775; 55 326) IHD deaths prevented, ~113 000 (95% UI: 100 104; 127 969) IHD events prevented and some ~US$300 million (256; 331) saved. Policy implementation costs were estimated as ~US$9 million over the first 10 years and ~US$20 million over the population lifetime. The intervention was estimated to be cost saving regardless of the time horizon. Findings were robust across multiple sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings support policy action for a mandatory iTFA limit as a cost-saving strategy to avert IHD events and deaths in Kenya.

Presence of trans-Fatty Acids Containing Ingredients in Pre-Packaged Foods and the Availability of Reported trans-Fat Levels in Kenya and Nigeria

In most African countries, the prevalence of industrially produced trans-fatty acids (iTFA) in the food supply is unknown. We estimated the number and proportion of products containing specific (any hydrogenated edible oils) and non-specific (vegetable fat, margarine, and vegetable cream) ingredients potentially indicative of iTFAs among pre-packaged foods collected in Kenya and Nigeria. We also summarized the number and proportion of products that reported trans-fatty acids levels and the range of reported trans-fatty acids levels. In total, 99 out of 5668 (1.7%) products in Kenya and 310 out of 6316 (4.9%) products in Nigeria contained specific ingredients indicative of iTFAs. Bread and bakery products and confectioneries in both countries had the most foods that contained iTFAs-indicative ingredients. A total of 656 products (12%) in Kenya and 624 products (10%) in Nigeria contained non-specific ingredients that may indicate the presence of iTFAs. The reporting of levels of trans-fatty acids was low in both Kenya and Nigeria (11% versus 26%, respectively, p < 0.001). With the increasing burden of ischemic heart disease in Kenya and Nigeria, the rapid adoption of WHO best-practice policies and the mandatory declaration of trans-fatty acids are important for eliminating iTFAs.

The direct and indirect costs of cardiovascular diseases in Brazil

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the direct and indirect costs of cardiovascular diseases (such as coronary heart disease and stroke) by sex and age group, attributed to the excessive consumption of salt, saturated fat and trans fat in Brazil.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The data for estimating the Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) corresponding to the consumption of salt, saturated fat and trans-fat were obtained from the Household Budget Survey 2017-2018. The calculation of direct costs for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) was made from the accounting sum of costs with hospitalizations and outpatient care found in the National Health System (Hospital Information System and Outpatient Information System), from 2017 to 2019, including the costs of treatment, such as medical consultations, medical procedures, and drugs. Regarding the indirect costs, they were measured by the loss of human capital, given the premature death, resulting in loss of productivity. To define the attributable costs, they were multiplied by the PAF.

RESULTS

Higher burden of CVD attributable to the consumption of salt, saturated fat and trans fat were observed in younger individuals, which progressively decreased with advancing age, but still generated economic costs in the order of US$ 7.18 billion, in addition to 1.53 million productive years of life lost (YLL) to premature death, if considering salt as an inducer. Although attributable burden of CVD is higher among younger individuals, the highest costs are associated with males aged 45 to 74 years old for direct costs and 45 to 64 years old for indirect costs.

CONCLUSION

The attributable fractions to consumption of salt are the ones that cause the most effects on CVD, followed by saturated fat and trans fat, with direct and indirect costs being higher for males.

Development and application of the TFA macrosimulation model: a case study of modelling the impact of trans fatty acid (TFA) elimination policies in Brazil

Introduction

The consumption of trans-fatty acids (TFA) is directly associated with cardiovascular disease risk and is responsible for a significant health burden globally. The policy strategies for reducing TFA include limiting their content in foods and eliminating partially hydrogenated oils (PHO) in the market. This study aims to describe a comparative risk assessment macrosimulation model and to apply this tool to estimate the potential reductions in CVD mortality gained from the compared scenarios of TFA reduction/elimination in Brazil.

Methodology

We developed and implemented a comparative risk assessment macrosimulation model estimates the potential CVD mortality reduction (coronary heart disease – CHD- and stroke) if TFA intake is reduced in diets. The TFA macrosimulation model estimates the change in the annual number of NCD deaths between baseline with current TFA consumption levels and alternate or counterfactual scenarios, such as considering different limits to TFA content in foods and the elimination of PHO in Brazil in 2018. The model incorporated additional outputs related to other impacts of TFA reduction on DPP, such as Years of Life Lost, Years of Productive Life Lost, and related economic impacts of premature deaths.

Results

In 2018, a 2% limit for TFA in the oils and fats and a 5% limit of TFAs for other foods could avert or postpone approximately 2,000 deaths (UI 95% 1,899-2,142) and save US$ 32.1 million savings in productivity losses to the economy associated to premature deaths. An intermediate scenario, applying a 2% limit of TFA in all food products In Brazil could prevent or postpone approximately 6,300 deaths (UI 95% 5,925-6,684) and the premature deaths prevented would represent US$ 100.2 million in economic saving. Finally, by banning PHO, approximately 10,500 deaths could be prevented or postponed (UI 95% 9,963 − 10,909), corresponding to US$ 166.7 million in savings to the economy because of premature deaths.

Conclusion

The TFA macrosimulation model can efficiently compare different policy scenarios for trans fats reduction policies at the country level and proves that the elimination of PHOs from the food market in Brazil may significantly reduce the health burden of trans fatty acids in the country compared to other policy options. The model also represents a useful public health tool to support TFA reduction and elimination policies in other countries.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-14361-9.

Associations of Dietary Fat Intake With Mortality From All Causes, Cardiovascular Disease, and Cancer: A Prospective Study

The impact of fat intake on health has become a growing public concern. The existing evidence linking specific dietary fat intake with mortality is controversial. We aimed to investigate the association between fat intake and total and cause-specific mortality in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) cancer screening trial. Intakes of saturated fatty acids (SFAs), trans-fatty acids (TFAs), monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFAs), and polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) were assessed via food frequency questionnaires. The primary outcomes were total, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and cancer mortality. Multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox regression model adjusting for confounders. Overall, 24,141 deaths were recorded over a total 1,672,715 person-years of follow-up. There was a significant positive association between SFA consumption and total mortality (HR _{Q5 vs. Q1} = 1.13, 95% CI 1.05-1.22; P _{for trend} < 0.001). PUFA intake was strongly inversely associated with total mortality (HR _{Q5 vs. Q1} = 0.79, 95% CI 0.73-0.85; P _{for trend} < 0.001) and CVD mortality (HR _{Q5 vs. Q1} = 0.66, 95% CI 0.58-0.75; P _{for trend} < 0.001). There was a similar, but to a lesser extent, association between MUFA intake and total and CVD mortality [HR _{Q5 vs. Q1} 0.91 (95% CI: 0.84-0.99), P _{for trend} = 0.044 and 0.85 (0.73-0.98), P _{for trend} = 0.020, respectively]. None of these types of dietary fat were associated with cancer mortality (all P _{for trend} > 0.05). In conclusion, this study observed a detrimental effect of SFA intake on total mortality; in contrast, greater consumption of PUFAs and MUFAs were associated with lower risks of all-cause death and CVD mortality.

Allosteric modulation of cardiac myosin mechanics and kinetics by the conjugated omega-7,9 trans-fat rumenic acid

KEY POINTS

Direct binding of rumenic acid to the cardiac myosin-2 motor domain increases the release rate for orthophosphate and increases the Ca²⁺ responsiveness of cardiac muscle at low load. Physiological cellular concentrations of rumenic acid affect the ATP turnover rates of the super-relaxed and disordered relaxed states of β-cardiac myosin, leading to a net increase in myocardial metabolic load. In Ca²⁺ -activated trabeculae, rumenic acid exerts a direct inhibitory effect on the force-generating mechanism without affecting the number of force-generating motors. In the presence of saturating actin concentrations rumenic acid binds to the β-cardiac myosin-2 motor domain with an EC₅₀ of 200 nM. Molecular docking studies provide information about the binding site, the mode of binding, and associated allosteric communication pathways. Free rumenic acid may exceed thresholds in cardiomyocytes above which contractile efficiency is reduced and interference with small molecule therapeutics, targeting cardiac myosin, occurs.

ABSTRACT

Based on experiments using purified myosin motor domains, reconstituted actomyosin complexes and rat heart ventricular trabeculae, we demonstrate direct binding of rumenic acid, the cis-delta-9-trans-delta-11 isomer of conjugated linoleic acid, to an allosteric site located in motor domain of mammalian cardiac myosin-2 isoforms. In the case of porcine β-cardiac myosin, the EC₅₀ for rumenic acid varies from 10.5 μM in the absence of actin to 200 nM in the presence of saturating concentrations of actin. Saturating concentrations of rumenic acid increase the maximum turnover of basal and actin-activated ATPase activity of β-cardiac myosin approximately 2-fold but decrease the force output per motor by 23% during isometric contraction. The increase in ATP turnover is linked to an acceleration of the release of the hydrolysis product orthophosphate. In the presence of 5 μM rumenic acid, the difference in the rate of ATP turnover by the super-relaxed and disordered relaxed states of cardiac myosin increases from 4-fold to 20-fold. The equilibrium between the two functional myosin states is not affected by rumenic acid. Calcium responsiveness is increased under zero-load conditions but unchanged under load. Molecular docking studies provide information about the rumenic acid binding site, the mode of binding, and associated allosteric communication pathways. They show how the isoform-specific replacement of residues in the binding cleft induces a different mode of rumenic acid binding in the case of non-muscle myosin-2C and blocks binding to skeletal muscle and smooth muscle myosin-2 isoforms.

Healthcare Cost Savings Associated with Increased Whole Grain Consumption among Australian Adults

Many dietary guidelines emphasise "mostly" whole grain food choices as part of an overall healthy eating pattern based on evidence for enhancing nutritional status and reducing chronic disease. Still, countries including Australia fall short of their consumption targets. Furthermore, healthcare cost savings associated with increasing the consumption of whole grains in alignment with the Daily Target Intake (DTI) recommendation of 48 g are unknown. The aim of this study was to assess the potential savings in costs of healthcare and lost productivity associated with a reduction in the incidence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) through meeting the 48 g DTI recommendation for whole grains among the Australian adult population (>20 years). A three-step cost-of-illness analysis was conducted using input parameters from: 1) estimates of proportions of consumers (5%, 15%, 50%, and 100%) who would increase their current intake of whole grains to meet the recommended DTI in Australia; 2) relative reductions in risk of T2DM and CVD associated with specific whole grain consumption, as reported in meta-analysis studies; and 3) data on costs of healthcare and productivity loss based on monetary figures by national healthcare authorities. A very pessimistic (5% of the population) through to universal (100% of the population) adoption of the recommended DTI was shown to potentially yield AUD 37.5 (95% CI 22.3-49.3) to AUD 750.7 (95% CI 445.7-985.2) million, and AUD 35.9 (95% CI 8.3-60.7) to AUD 717.4 (95% CI 165.5-1214.1) million in savings on annual healthcare and lost productivity costs for T2DM and CVD, respectively. Given such economic benefits of the recommended consumption of whole grains, in exchange for refined grains, there is a real opportunity to facilitate relevant socioeconomic cost-savings for Australia and reductions in disease. These results are suggestive of a much greater opportunity to communicate the need for dietary change at all levels, but particularly through food-based dietary guidelines and front-of-pack labelling initiatives.

Trans Fat Free by 2023-A Building Block of the COVID-19 Response

COVID-19 has brought to center stage the most important health issue of our era, largely ignored by policymakers and the public to date: non-communicable diseases (NCDs), the cause of 71% of deaths per year worldwide. People living with NCDs, and particularly those living with cardiovascular disease (CVD), are at higher risk of severe symptoms and death from COVID-19. As a result, the urgent need for policy measures to protect cardiovascular health is more apparent than ever. One example of "low-hanging fruit" in the prevention of CVD is the elimination of industrially-produced trans fatty acids (iTFA). Their removal from the global food supply could prevent up to 17 million deaths by 2040 and would be the first time an NCD risk factor has been eliminated.