Harnessing case isolation and ring vaccination to control Ebola

Analysis of COVID-19 Risk Following a Ring Vaccination Intervention to Address SARS-CoV-2 Alpha Variant Transmission in Montreal, Canada

IMPORTANCE

Given limited COVID-19 vaccine availability early in the pandemic, optimizing immunization strategies was of paramount importance. Ring vaccination has been used successfully to control transmission of other airborne respiratory viruses.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association of a ring vaccination intervention on COVID-19 spread in the initial epicenter of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant transmission in Montreal, Canada.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study compared COVID-19 daily disease risk in 3 population-based groups of neighborhoods in Montreal, Canada, defined by their intervention-specific vaccine coverage at the neighborhood level: the primary intervention group (500 or more vaccinated persons per 10 000 persons), secondary intervention group (95 to 499), and control group (0 to 50). The groups were compared within each of 3 time periods: before intervention (December 1, 2020, to March 16, 2021), during and immediately after intervention (March 17 to April 17, 2021), and 3 weeks after the intervention midpoint (April 18 to July 18, 2021). Data were analyzed between June 2021 and November 2021.

EXPOSURES

Vaccination targeted parents and teachers of children attending the 32 schools and 48 childcare centers in 2 adjacent neighborhoods with highest local transmission (case counts) of Alpha variant shortly after its introduction. Participants were invited to receive 1 dose of mRNA vaccine between March 22 and April 9, 2021 (before vaccine was available to these age groups).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

COVID-19 risk in 3 groups of neighborhoods based on intervention-specific vaccine coverage.

RESULTS

A total of 11 794 residents were immunized, with a mean (SD) age of 43 (8) years (range, 16-93 years); 5766 participants (48.9%) lived in a targeted neighborhood, and 9784 (83.0%) were parents. COVID-19 risk in the primary intervention group was significantly higher than in the control group before (unadjusted risk ratio [RR], 1.58; 95% CI 1.52-1.65) and during (RR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.52-1.76) intervention, and reached a level similar to the other groups in the weeks following the intervention (RR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.94-1.12). A similar trend was observed when restricting to SARS-CoV-2 variants and persons aged 30 to 59 years (before: RR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.63-1.83 vs after: RR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.88-1.17).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Our findings show that ring vaccination was associated with a reduction in COVID-19 risk in areas with high local transmission of Alpha variant shortly after its introduction. Ring vaccination may be considered as an adjunct to mass immunization to control transmission in specific areas, based on local epidemiology.

Network models to evaluate vaccine strategies towards herd immunity in COVID-19

Vaccination remains a critical element in the eventual solution to the COVID-19 public health crisis. Many vaccines are already being mass produced and supplied in many countries. However, the COVID-19 vaccination programme will be the biggest in history. Reaching herd immunity will require an unprecedented mass immunisation campaign that will take several months and millions of dollars. Using different network models, COVID-19 pandemic dynamics of different countries can be recapitulated such as in Italy. Stochastic computational simulations highlight that peak epidemic sizes in a population strongly depend on the network structure. Assuming a vaccine efficacy of at least 80% in a mass vaccination program, at least 70% of a given population should be vaccinated to obtain herd immunity, independently of the network structure. If the vaccine efficacy reports lower levels of efficacy in practice, then the coverage of vaccination would be needed to be even higher. Simulations suggest that the "Ring of Vaccination" strategy, vaccinating susceptible contact and contact of contacts, would prevent new waves of COVID -19 meanwhile a high percent of the population is vaccinated.

Protective population behavior change in outbreaks of emerging infectious disease

BACKGROUND

During outbreaks of emerging and re-emerging infections, the lack of effective drugs and vaccines increases reliance on non-pharmacologic public health interventions and behavior change to limit human-to-human transmission. Interventions that increase the speed with which infected individuals remove themselves from the susceptible population are paramount, particularly isolation and hospitalization. Ebola virus disease (EVD), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) are zoonotic viruses that have caused significant recent outbreaks with sustained human-to-human transmission.

METHODS

This investigation quantified changing mean removal rates (MRR) and days from symptom onset to hospitalization (DSOH) of infected individuals from the population in seven different outbreaks of EVD, SARS, and MERS, to test for statistically significant differences in these metrics between outbreaks.

RESULTS

We found that epidemic week and viral serial interval were correlated with the speed with which populations developed and maintained health behaviors in each outbreak.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings highlight intrinsic population-level changes in isolation rates in multiple epidemics of three zoonotic infections with established human-to-human transmission and significant morbidity and mortality. These data are particularly useful for disease modelers seeking to forecast the spread of emerging pathogens.

A multi-stage stochastic programming approach to epidemic resource allocation with equity considerations

Existing compartmental models in epidemiology are limited in terms of optimizing the resource allocation to control an epidemic outbreak under disease growth uncertainty. In this study, we address this core limitation by presenting a multi-stage stochastic programming compartmental model, which integrates the uncertain disease progression and resource allocation to control an infectious disease outbreak. The proposed multi-stage stochastic program involves various disease growth scenarios and optimizes the distribution of treatment centers and resources while minimizing the total expected number of new infections and funerals. We define two new equity metrics, namely infection and capacity equity, and explicitly consider equity for allocating treatment funds and facilities over multiple time stages. We also study the multi-stage value of the stochastic solution (VSS), which demonstrates the superiority of the proposed stochastic programming model over its deterministic counterpart. We apply the proposed formulation to control the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia of West Africa to determine the optimal and fair resource-allocation strategies. Our model balances the proportion of infections over all regions, even without including the infection equity or prevalence equity constraints. Model results also show that allocating treatment resources proportional to population is sub-optimal, and enforcing such a resource allocation policy might adversely impact the total number of infections and deaths, and thus resulting in a high cost that we have to pay for the fairness. Our multi-stage stochastic epidemic-logistics model is practical and can be adapted to control other infectious diseases in meta-populations and dynamically evolving situations.

Epidemiological Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination: Mathematical Modeling Analyses

This study aims to inform SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development/licensure/decision-making/implementation, using mathematical modeling, by determining key preferred vaccine product characteristics and associated population-level impacts of a vaccine eliciting long-term protection. A prophylactic vaccine with efficacy against acquisition (VE_S) ≥70% can eliminate the infection. A vaccine with VE_S <70% may still control the infection if it reduces infectiousness or infection duration among those vaccinated who acquire the infection, if it is supplemented with <20% reduction in contact rate, or if it is complemented with herd-immunity. At VE_S of 50%, the number of vaccinated persons needed to avert one infection is 2.4, and the number is 25.5 to avert one severe disease case, 33.2 to avert one critical disease case, and 65.1 to avert one death. The probability of a major outbreak is zero at VE_S ≥70% regardless of the number of virus introductions. However, an increase in social contact rate among those vaccinated (behavior compensation) can undermine vaccine impact. In addition to the reduction in infection acquisition, developers should assess the natural history and disease progression outcomes when evaluating vaccine impact.

Epidemiological Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination: Mathematical Modeling Analyses

This study aims to inform SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development/licensure/decision-making/implementation, using mathematical modeling, by determining key preferred vaccine product characteristics and associated population-level impacts of a vaccine eliciting long-term protection. A prophylactic vaccine with efficacy against acquisition (VES) ≥70% can eliminate the infection. A vaccine with VES <70% may still control the infection if it reduces infectiousness or infection duration among those vaccinated who acquire the infection, if it is supplemented with <20% reduction in contact rate, or if it is complemented with herd-immunity. At VES of 50%, the number of vaccinated persons needed to avert one infection is 2.4, and the number is 25.5 to avert one severe disease case, 33.2 to avert one critical disease case, and 65.1 to avert one death. The probability of a major outbreak is zero at VES ≥70% regardless of the number of virus introductions. However, an increase in social contact rate among those vaccinated (behavior compensation) can undermine vaccine impact. In addition to the reduction in infection acquisition, developers should assess the natural history and disease progression outcomes when evaluating vaccine impact.

Modelling microbial infection to address global health challenges

The continued growth of the world’s population and increased interconnectivity heighten the risk that infectious diseases pose for human health worldwide. Epidemiological modelling is a tool that can be used to mitigate this risk by predicting disease spread or quantifying the impact of different intervention strategies on disease transmission dynamics. We illustrate how four decades of methodological advances and improved data quality have facilitated the contribution of modelling to address global health challenges, exemplified by models for the HIV crisis, emerging pathogens and pandemic preparedness. Throughout, we discuss the importance of designing a model that is appropriate to the research question and the available data. We highlight pitfalls that can arise in model development, validation and interpretation. Close collaboration between empiricists and modellers continues to improve the accuracy of predictions and the optimization of models for public health decision-making.

Data Fitting and Scenario Analysis of Vaccination in the 2014 Ebola Outbreak in Liberia

Objectives

This study aimed to extend an epidemiological model (SEIHFR) to analyze epidemic trends, and evaluate intervention efficacy.

Methods

SEIHFR was modified to examine disease transmission dynamics after vaccination for the Ebola outbreak. Using existing data from Liberia, sensitivity analysis of various epidemic scenarios was used to inform the model structure, estimate the basic reproduction number ℜ₀ and investigate how the vaccination could effectively change the course of the epidemic.

Results

If a randomized mass vaccination strategy was adopted, vaccines would be administered prophylactically or as early as possible (depending on the availability of vaccines). An effective vaccination rate threshold for Liberia was estimated as 48.74% among susceptible individuals. If a ring vaccination strategy was adopted to control the spread of the Ebola virus, vaccines would be given to reduce the transmission rate improving the tracing rate of the contact persons of an infected individual.

Conclusion

The extended SEIHFR model predicted the total number of infected cases, number of deaths, number of recoveries, and duration of outbreaks among others with different levels of interventions such as vaccination rate. This model may be used to better understand the spread of Ebola and develop strategies that may achieve a disease-free state.

Safety and Immunogenicity of a 2-Dose Heterologous Vaccine Regimen With Ad26.ZEBOV and MVA-BN-Filo Ebola Vaccines: 12-Month Data From a Phase 1 Randomized Clinical Trial in Nairobi, Kenya

BACKGROUND

During the 2014 West African Ebola outbreak, Ebola vaccine development was accelerated. The phase 1 VAC52150EBL1003 study was performed to investigate 2-dose heterologous vaccination with Ad26.ZEBOV and MVA-BN-Filo in an African population located in a high-altitude setting in Nairobi, Kenya.

METHODS

Healthy adult volunteers were randomized to receive one of four 2-dose vaccination schedules. The first vaccination was administered at baseline (Ad26.ZEBOV or MVA-BN-Filo), followed by the second vaccination with the alternate vaccine after either 28 or 56 days. Each schedule had a placebo comparator group. The primary objective was to assess the safety and tolerability of these regimens.

RESULTS

Seventy-two volunteers were randomized into 4 groups of 18 (15 received vaccine, and 3 received placebo). The most frequent solicited systemic adverse event was headache (frequency, 50%, 61%, and 42% per dose for MVA-BN-Filo, Ad26.ZEBOV, and placebo, respectively). The most frequent solicited local AE was injection site pain (frequency, 78%, 63%, and 33% per dose for MVA-BN-Filo, Ad26.ZEBOV, and placebo, respectively). No differences in adverse events were observed among the different vaccine regimens. High levels of binding and neutralizing anti-Ebola virus glycoprotein antibodies were induced by all regimens and sustained to day 360 after the first dose.

CONCLUSIONS

Two-dose heterologous vaccination with Ad26.ZEBOV and MVA-BN-Filo was well tolerated and highly immunogenic against Ebola virus glycoprotein.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT02376426.

Ebola vaccination in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Following the April 2018 reemergence of Ebola in a rural region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the virus spread to an urban center by early May. Within 2 wk of the first case confirmation, a vaccination campaign was initiated in which 3,017 doses were administered to contacts of cases and frontline healthcare workers. To evaluate the spatial dynamics of Ebola transmission and quantify the impact of vaccination, we developed a geographically explicit model that incorporates high-resolution data on poverty and population density. We found that while Ebola risk was concentrated around sites initially reporting infections, longer-range dissemination also posed a risk to areas with high population density and poverty. We estimate that the vaccination program contracted the geographical area at risk for Ebola by up to 70.4% and reduced the level of risk within that region by up to 70.1%. The early implementation of vaccination was critical. A delay of even 1 wk would have reduced these effects to 33.3 and 44.8%, respectively. These results underscore the importance of the rapid deployment of Ebola vaccines during emerging outbreaks to containing transmission and preventing global spread. The spatiotemporal framework developed here provides a tool for identifying high-risk regions, in which surveillance can be intensified and preemptive control can be implemented during future outbreaks.

The large graph limit of a stochastic epidemic model on a dynamic multilayer network

We consider a Markovian SIR-type (Susceptible → Infected → Recovered) stochastic epidemic process with multiple modes of transmission on a contact network. The network is given by a random graph following a multilayer configuration model where edges in different layers correspond to potentially infectious contacts of different types. We assume that the graph structure evolves in response to the epidemic via activation or deactivation of edges of infectious nodes. We derive a large graph limit theorem that gives a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) describing the evolution of quantities of interest, such as the proportions of infected and susceptible vertices, as the number of nodes tends to infinity. Analysis of the limiting system elucidates how the coupling of edge activation and deactivation to infection status affects disease dynamics, as illustrated by a two-layer network example with edge types corresponding to community and healthcare contacts. Our theorem extends some earlier results describing the deterministic limit of stochastic SIR processes on static, single-layer configuration model graphs. We also describe precisely the conditions for equivalence between our limiting ODEs and the systems obtained via pair approximation, which are widely used in the epidemiological and ecological literature to approximate disease dynamics on networks. The flexible modeling framework and asymptotic results have potential application to many disease settings including Ebola dynamics in West Africa, which was the original motivation for this study.

Optimization of Isothiazolo[4,3- b]pyridine-Based Inhibitors of Cyclin G Associated Kinase (GAK) with Broad-Spectrum Antiviral Activity

There is an urgent need for strategies to combat dengue and other emerging viral infections. We reported that cyclin G-associated kinase (GAK), a cellular regulator of the clathrin-associated host adaptor proteins AP-1 and AP-2, regulates intracellular trafficking of multiple unrelated RNA viruses during early and late stages of the viral lifecycle. We also reported the discovery of potent, selective GAK inhibitors based on an isothiazolo[4,3- b]pyridine scaffold, albeit with moderate antiviral activity. Here, we describe our efforts leading to the discovery of novel isothiazolo[4,3- b]pyridines that maintain high GAK affinity and selectivity. These compounds demonstrate improved in vitro activity against dengue virus, including in human primary dendritic cells, and efficacy against the unrelated Ebola and chikungunya viruses. Moreover, inhibition of GAK activity was validated as an important mechanism of antiviral action of these compounds. These findings demonstrate the potential utility of a GAK-targeted broad-spectrum approach for combating currently untreatable emerging viral infections.

Review of mathematical models of HSV-2 vaccination: Implications for vaccine development

Development of a vaccine against herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), a life-long sexually-transmitted infection (STI), would be a major step forward in improving global sexual and reproductive health. In this review, we identified published literature of dynamic mathematical models assessing the impact of either prophylactic or therapeutic HSV-2 vaccination at the population level. We compared each study's model structure and assumptions as well as predicted vaccination impact. We examined possible causes of heterogeneity across model predictions, key gaps, and the implications of these findings for future modelling efforts. Only eight modelling studies have assessed the potential public health impact of HSV-2 vaccination, with the majority focusing on impact of prophylactic vaccines. The studies showed that even an imperfect prophylactic HSV-2 vaccine could have an important public health impact on HSV-2 incidence, and could also impact HIV indirectly in high HIV prevalence settings. Therapeutic vaccines also may provide public health benefits, though they have been explored less extensively. However, there was substantial variation in predicted population-level impact for both types of vaccine, reflecting differences in assumptions between model scenarios. Importantly, many models did not account for heterogeneity in infection rates such as by age, sex and sexual activity. Future modelling work to inform decisions on HSV vaccine development and implementation should consider cost-effectiveness, account for additional HSV-2 sequelae such as neonatal transmission, and model greater heterogeneity in infection rates between individuals, more realistic vaccine deployment, and more thorough sensitivity and uncertainty analyses.

Considerations for use of Ebola vaccine during an emergency response

Vaccination against Ebola virus disease is a tool that may limit disease transmission and deaths in future outbreaks, integrated within traditional Ebola outbreak prevention and control measures. Although a licensed Ebolavirus vaccine (EV) is not yet available, the 2014-2016 West African Ebola outbreak has accelerated EV clinical trials and given public health authorities in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone experience with implementation of emergency ring vaccination. As evidence supporting the use of EV during an outbreak response has become available, public health authorities in at-risk countries are considering how to integrate EV into future emergency Ebola responses and for prevention in high-risk groups, such as healthcare workers and frontline workers (HCW/FLWs), even before an EV is licensed. This review provides an overview of Ebola epidemiology, immunology, and evidence to inform regional and country-level decisions regarding EV delivery during an emergency response and to at-risk populations before a licensed vaccine is available and beyond. Countries or regions planning to use EV will need to assess factors such as the likelihood of a future Ebolavirus outbreak, the most likely species to cause an outbreak, the availability of a safe and effective EV (unlicensed or licensed) for the affected population, capacity to implement Ebola vaccination in conjunction with standard Ebola outbreak control measures, and availability of minimum essential resources and regulatory requirements to implement emergency Ebola vaccination. Potential emergency vaccination strategies for consideration include ring or geographically targeted community vaccination, HCW/FLW vaccination, and mass vaccination. The development of guidelines and protocols for Ebola vaccination will help ensure that activities are standardized, evidence-based, and well-coordinated with overall Ebola outbreak response efforts in the future.

Role of contact tracing in containing the 2014 Ebola outbreak: a review

BACKGROUND

The 2014 outbreak of Ebola virus disease which emerged in the month of March in the year 2014 in Guinea has been declared as a public health emergency of international concern.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives of the review article are to assess the role of contact tracing in the Ebola outbreak and to identify the challenges faced by the health workers while performing contact tracing.

METHODS

An extensive search of all materials related to the Ebola outbreak and contact tracing was carried out in PubMed, Medline, World Health Organization website and Google Scholar search engines. Keywords used in the search included Ebola virus disease, West-Africa, contact tracing, World Health Organization. Overall 60 articles were selected and included in the discussion.

RESULTS

Contact tracing is an important strategy in epidemiology and refers to the identification and diagnosis of those individuals who have come in contact with an infected person. It ultimately aims to reduce the time span required to detect and treat a case of an infectious disease and hence significantly minimize the risk of transmission to the subsequent susceptible individuals. In-fact, contact tracing continues to remain an important measure, as it aids the epidemiologist in containing the infection.

CONCLUSION

The strategy of contact tracing has a great potential to significantly reduce the incidence of cases of Ebola virus disease. However, its success is eventually determined by the level of trust between the community and the public health system and the quality of the diagnostic & treatment services.

Containing Ebola at the Source with Ring Vaccination

Interim results from the Guinea Ebola ring vaccination trial suggest high efficacy of the rVSV-ZEBOV vaccine. These findings open the door to the use of ring vaccination strategies in which the contacts and contacts of contacts of each index case are promptly vaccinated to contain future Ebola virus disease outbreaks. To provide a numerical estimate of the effectiveness of ring vaccination strategies we introduce a spatially explicit agent-based model to simulate Ebola outbreaks in the Pujehun district, Sierra Leone, structurally similar to previous modelling approaches. We find that ring vaccination can successfully contain an outbreak for values of the effective reproduction number up to 1.6. Through an extensive sensitivity analysis of parameters characterising the readiness and capacity of the health care system, we identify interventions that, alongside ring vaccination, could increase the likelihood of containment. In particular, shortening the time from symptoms onset to hospitalisation to 2–3 days on average through improved contact tracing procedures, adding a 2km spatial component to the vaccination ring, and decreasing human mobility by quarantining affected areas might contribute increase our ability to contain outbreaks with effective reproduction number up to 2.6. These results have implications for future control of Ebola and other emerging infectious disease threats.

When the 2014–15 Ebola outbreak in West Africa began, no licensed vaccines for the disease were available. The rVSV-ZEBOV vaccine was developed during the course of the epidemic and underwent a clinical trial demonstrating 100% efficacy when vaccinating contacts and contacts of contacts of confirmed Ebola cases (an approach called ring vaccination). However, the trial did not provide any understanding on whether this vaccination strategy can be effective in containing future Ebola virus disease outbreaks. Through a modelling study on a region of Sierra Leone, we provide numerical estimates for the effectiveness of ring vaccination: we show that outbreaks with moderate transmission potential, with no more than 1.6 secondary cases generated by an index case on average, can be successfully contained; more extensive vaccination(e.g., including spatial rings around index cases) and reinforcement of the healthcare system would increase the likelihood of containment even if the virus were more transmissible than in the past. Our results provide implications for control plans of possible future Ebola outbreaks.

Effectiveness of Ring Vaccination as Control Strategy for Ebola Virus Disease

Using an Ebola virus disease transmission model, we found that addition of ring vaccination at the outset of the West Africa epidemic might not have led to containment of this disease. However, in later stages of the epidemic or in outbreaks with less intense transmission or more effective control, this strategy could help eliminate the disease.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of the Ebola epidemic in Guinea and implications for vaccination and disease elimination: a computational modeling analysis

BACKGROUND

Among the three countries most affected by the Ebola virus disease outbreak in 2014-2015, Guinea presents an unusual spatiotemporal epidemic pattern, with several waves and a long tail in the decay of the epidemic incidence.

METHODS

Here, we develop a stochastic agent-based model at the level of a single household that integrates detailed data on Guinean demography, hospitals, Ebola treatment units, contact tracing, and safe burial interventions. The microsimulation-based model is used to assess the effect of each control strategy and the probability of elimination of the epidemic according to different intervention scenarios, including ring vaccination with the recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus-vectored vaccine.

RESULTS

The numerical results indicate that the dynamics of the Ebola epidemic in Guinea can be quantitatively explained by the timeline of the implemented interventions. In particular, the early availability of Ebola treatment units and the associated isolation of cases and safe burials helped to limit the number of Ebola cases experienced by Guinea. We provide quantitative evidence of a strong negative correlation between the time series of cases and the number of traced contacts. This result is confirmed by the computational model that suggests that contact tracing effort is a key determinant in the control and elimination of the disease. In data-driven microsimulations, we find that tracing at least 5-10 contacts per case is crucial in preventing epidemic resurgence during the epidemic elimination phase. The computational model is used to provide an analysis of the ring vaccination trial highlighting its potential effect on disease elimination.

CONCLUSIONS

We identify contact tracing as one of the key determinants of the epidemic's behavior in Guinea, and we show that the early availability of Ebola treatment unit beds helped to limit the number of Ebola cases in Guinea.

Epidemiology and Management of the 2013-16 West African Ebola Outbreak

The 2013-16 West African Ebola outbreak is the largest, most geographically dispersed, and deadliest on record, with 28,616 suspected cases and 11,310 deaths recorded to date in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. We provide a review of the epidemiology and management of the 2013-16 Ebola outbreak in West Africa aimed at stimulating reflection on lessons learned that may improve the response to the next international health crisis caused by a pathogen that emerges in a region of the world with a severely limited health care infrastructure. Surveillance efforts employing rapid and effective point-of-care diagnostics designed for environments that lack advanced laboratory infrastructure will greatly aid in early detection and containment efforts during future outbreaks. Introduction of effective therapeutics and vaccines against Ebola into the public health system and the biodefense armamentarium is of the highest priority if future outbreaks are to be adequately managed and contained in a timely manner.