The impact of matching vaccine strains and post-SARS public health efforts on reducing influenza-associated mortality among the elderly

National retrospective cohort study to identify age-specific fatality risks of comorbidities among hospitalised patients with influenza-like illness in Taiwan

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to examine comprehensively the prognostic impact of underlying comorbidities among hospitalised patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) in different age groups and provide recommendations targeting the vulnerable patients.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

A retrospective cohort of 83 227 hospitalised cases with ILI were identified from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database from January 2005 to December 2010. Cases were stratified into three different age groups: paediatric (0-17 years), adult (18-64 years) and elderly (≧65 years), and their age, sex, comorbidity and past healthcare utilisation were analysed for ILI-associated fatality.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

ORs for ILI-related fatality in different age groups were performed using multivariable analyses with generalised estimating equation models and adjusted by age, sex and underlying comorbidities.

RESULTS

Hospitalised ILI-related fatality significantly increased with comorbidities of cancer with metastasis (adjusted OR (aOR)=3.49, 95% CI: 3.16 to 3.86), haematological malignancy (aOR=3.02, 95% CI: 2.43 to 3.74), cancer without metastasis (aOR=1.72, 95% CI: 1.54 to 1.91), cerebrovascular (aOR=1.24, 95% CI: 1.15 to 1.33) and heart diseases (aOR=1.19, 95% CI: 1.11 to 1.27) for all age groups. Adult patients with AIDS; adult and elderly patients with chronic kidney disease, tuberculosis and diabetes were significantly associated with elevated risk of death. Severe liver diseases and hypothyroidism among elderly, and dementia/epilepsy among elderly and paediatrics were distinctively associated with likelihood of ILI-related fatality.

CONCLUSIONS

Different age-specific comorbidities were associated with increasing risk of death among hospitalised ILI patients. These findings may help update guidelines for influenza vaccination and other prevention strategies in high-risk groups for minimising worldwide ILI-related deaths.

Mismatching between circulating strains and vaccine strains of influenza: Effect on Hajj pilgrims from both hemispheres

The trivalent seasonal influenza vaccine is expected to provide optimum protection if the vaccine strains match the circulating strains. The effect of worldwide mismatch between the vaccine strains and extant strains on travelers attending Hajj pilgrimage is not known. Annually 2-3 million Muslims coming from north and south hemispheres congregate at Hajj in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, where intense congestion amplifies the risk of respiratory infection up to eight fold. In order to estimate, to what extent mismatching increases the risk of vaccine failure in Hajj pilgrims, we have examined the global data on influenza epidemiology since 2003, in light of the available data from Hajj. These data demonstrate that globally mismatching between circulating and vaccine strains has occurred frequently over the last 12 years, and the mismatch seems to have affected the Hajj pilgrims, however, influenza virus characteristics were studied only in a limited number of Hajj seasons. When the vaccines are different, dual vaccination of travelers by vaccines for southern and northern hemispheres should be considered for Hajj pilgrims whenever logistically feasible. Consideration should also be given to the use of vaccines with broader coverage, i.e., quadrivalent, or higher immunogenicity. Continuous surveillance of influenza at Hajj is important.

Detecting respiratory viral RNA using expanded genetic alphabets and self-avoiding DNA

Nucleic acid (NA)-targeted tests detect and quantify viral DNA and RNA (collectively xNA) to support epidemiological surveillance and, in individual patients, to guide therapy. They commonly use polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and reverse transcription PCR. Although these all have rapid turnaround, they are expensive to run. Multiplexing would allow their cost to be spread over multiple targets, but often only with lower sensitivity and accuracy, noise, false positives, and false negatives; these arise by interactions between the multiple nucleic acid primers and probes in a multiplexed kit. Here we offer a multiplexed assay for a panel of respiratory viruses that mitigates these problems by combining several nucleic acid analogs from the emerging field of synthetic biology: (i) self-avoiding molecular recognition systems (SAMRSs), which facilitate multiplexing, and (ii) artificially expanded genetic information systems (AEGISs), which enable low-noise PCR. These are supplemented by “transliteration” technology, which converts standard nucleotides in a target to AEGIS nucleotides in a product, improving hybridization. The combination supports a multiplexed Luminex-based respiratory panel that potentially differentiates influenza viruses A and B, respiratory syncytial virus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS), and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) coronavirus, detecting as few as 10 MERS virions in a 20-μl sample.

Determinants of receiving the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccine and intention to receive the seasonal influenza vaccine in Taiwan

OBJECTIVES

The paper examines the factors associated with both receiving pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccines and individuals' intentions to get the next seasonal influenza vaccine in Taiwan.

METHODS

We conducted a representative nationwide survey with in-person household interviews during April-July 2010. Multivariate logistic regression incorporated socio-demographic background, household characteristics, health status, behaviors, and perceptions of influenza and vaccination.

RESULTS

We completed interviews with 1,954 respondents. Among those, 548 (28.0%) received the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccination, and 469 (24.0%) intended to get the next seasonal influenza vaccine. Receipt of the H1N1 vaccine was more prevalent among schoolchildren, the elderly, those who had contact with more people in their daily lives, and those who had received influenza vaccinations in previous years. In comparison, the intention to receive the next seasonal influenza vaccine tended to be stronger among children, the elderly, and those who reported less healthy status or lived with children, who received a seasonal influenza vaccination before, and who worried more about a possible new pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

Children, the elderly, and those who had gotten seasonal flu shots before in Taiwan were more likely to both receive a pandemic H1N1 vaccination and intend to receive a seasonal influenza vaccine.

Changing social contact patterns under tropical weather conditions relevant for the spread of infectious diseases

Weather conditions and social contact patterns provide some clues to understanding year-round influenza epidemics in the tropics. Recent studies suggest that contact patterns may direct influenza transmission in the tropics as critically as the aerosol channel in temperate regions. To examine this argument, we analysed a representative nationwide survey dataset of contact diaries with comprehensive weather data in Taiwan. Methods we used included model-free estimated relative changes in reproduction number, R 0; relative changes in the number of contacts; and model-based estimated relative changes in mean contacts using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. Overall, social contact patterns clearly differ by demographics (such as age groups), personal idiosyncrasies (such as personality and happiness), and social institutions (such as the division of weekdays and weekend days). Further, weather conditions also turn out to be closely linked to contact patterns under various circumstances. Fleeting contacts, for example, tend to diminish when it rains hard on weekdays, while physical contacts also decrease during weekend days with heavy rain. Frequent social contacts on weekdays and under good weather conditions, including high temperature and low absolute humidity, all might facilitate the transmission of infectious diseases in tropical regions.

The temporal trend of influenza-associated morbidity and the impact of early appearance of antigenic drifted strains in a Southeast Asian country

Globally, influenza infection is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the elderly, who are suggested to be the major target group for trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) vaccination by World Health Organization. In spite of an increasing trend in vaccine coverage rates in many countries, the effect of vaccination among the elderly in reducing hospitalization and mortality remains controversial. In this study, we conducted a historical cohort study to evaluate the temporal pattern of influenza-associated morbidity among persons older than 64 years over a decade. The temporal patterns of influenza-associated morbidity rates among the elderly older than 64 years indicated that Taiwan's elderly P&I outpatient visits have been decreasing since the beginning of the 1999–2000 influenza season; however, hospitalization has been increasing despite significant increases in vaccine coverage. The propensity score logistic regression model was implemented to evaluate the source of bias and it was found that the TIV-receiving group had a higher propensity score than the non-receiving group (P<0.0001). In order to investigate the major factors affecting the temporal pattern of influenza-associated morbidity, we then used the propensity score as a summary confounder in a multivariate Poisson regression model based on the trimmed data. Our final models suggested that the factors affected the temporal pattern of morbidity differently. The variables including co-morbidity, vaccination rate, influenza virus type A and B isolation rate were associated with increased outpatient visits and hospitalization (p<0.05). In contrast, variables including high propensity score, increased 1°C in temperature, matching vaccine strains of type A/H1N1 and type B were associated with decreased outpatient visits and hospitalization (p<0.05). Finally, we assessed the impact of early appearance of antigenic-drifted strains and concluded that an excess influenza-associated morbidity substantial trends toward higher P&I hospitalization, but not outpatient visits, during the influenza season with early appearance of antigenic-drifted strains.

Moderate influenza vaccine effectiveness with variable effectiveness by match between circulating and vaccine strains in Australian adults aged 20-64 years, 2007-2011

Please cite this paper as: Kelly et al. Moderate influenza vaccine effectiveness with variable effectiveness by match between circulating and vaccine strains in Australian adults aged 20–64 years, 2007–2011. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses DOI:10.1111/irv.12018.

Background  Influenza vaccines are licensed annually based on immunogenicity studies. We used five sequential years of data to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE), the critical outcome in the field.

Methods  Between 2007 and 2011, we performed annual prospective test‐negative design case–control studies among adults aged 20–64 years recruited from sentinel general practices in the Australian state of Victoria. We used PCR‐confirmed influenza as the endpoint to estimate influenza VE for all years. We compared annual VE estimates with the match between circulating and vaccine strains, determined by haemagglutination inhibition assays.

Results  The adjusted VE estimate for all years (excluding 2009) was 62% (95% CI 43, 75). By type and subtype, the point estimates of VE by year ranged between 31% for seasonal influenza A(H1N1) and 88% for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. In 2007, when circulating strains were assessed as incompletely matched, the point estimate of the adjusted VE against all influenza was 58%. The point estimate was 59% in 2011 when all strains were assessed as well matched.

Conclusion  Trivalent inactivated vaccines provided moderate protection against laboratory‐confirmed influenza in adults of working age, although VE estimates were sensitive to the model used. VE estimates correlated poorly with circulating strain match, as assessed by haemagglutination inhibition assays, suggesting a need for VE studies that incorporate antigenic characterization data.