Four-year treatment outcomes of adult patients enrolled in Mozambique's rapidly expanding antiretroviral therapy program

Survival-related factors in HIV/AIDS patients: A retrospective cohort study from 2011 to 2019 in Kermanshah, Iran

INTRODUCTION

Accurate evaluation of the survival rate among HIV-positive populations is pivotal for HIV management.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate the survival rate and potential survival-related factors in HIV/AIDS patients from 2011 to 2019 in the city of Kermanshah in the west of Iran.

METHOD

In this study, 915 HIV-positive patients registered by the Kermanshah Behavioral diseases counseling center, were surveyed from 2011 to 2019. By reading the patients' files, the proper data related to the survival factors were extracted and statistically analyzed.

RESULTS

Of 915 patients, 220 (24%) died. The one-year, five-year, and ten-year survival rates were 84%, 72%, and 62%, respectively. There was a significant relationship between the survival rate and many other parameters, including treatment variables, CD4+ T cell count, the way of HIV transmission, level of education, gender, and marital status. Over time, timely initiation of treatment has increased. The data also showed that HIV transmission through drug injection has decreased, while the sexual transmission of HIV has increased.

CONCLUSIONS

The results showed that in recent years, due to the appropriate treatment, the survival rate of HIV patients has increased. The highest risk factor of death was for people with low CD4+ T cell count, lack of antiretroviral therapy, low level of education, male gender, and people who inject drugs. These people need more attention to get tested for HIV- related indexes and to receive proper treatment.

Investigating clinic transfers among HIV patients considered lost to follow-up to improve understanding of the HIV care cascade: Findings from a cohort study in rural north-eastern South Africa

Investigating clinical transfers of HIV patients is important for accurate estimates of retention and informing interventions to support patients. We investigate transfers for adults reported as lost to follow-up (LTFU) from eight HIV care facilities in the Agincourt health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS), South Africa. Using linked clinic and HDSS records, outcomes of adults more than 90 days late for their last scheduled clinic visit were determined through clinic and routine tracing record reviews, HDSS data, and supplementary tracing. Factors associated with transferring to another clinic were determined through Cox regression models. Transfers were graphically and geospatially visualised. Transfers were more common for women, patients living further from the clinic, and patients with higher baseline CD4 cell counts. Transfers to clinics within the HDSS were more likely to be undocumented and were significantly more likely for women pregnant at ART initiation. Transfers outside the HDSS clustered around economic hubs. Patients transferring to health facilities within the HDSS may be shopping for better care, whereas those who transfer out of the HDSS may be migrating for work. Treatment programmes should facilitate transfer processes for patients, ensure continuity of care among those migrating, and improve tracking of undocumented transfers.

Predictors of attrition among adults in a rural HIV clinic in southern Mozambique: 18-year retrospective study

HIV remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality for people living in many low-income countries. With an HIV prevalence of 12.4% among people aged over 15 years, Mozambique was ranked in 2019 as one of eight countries with the highest HIV rates in the world. We analyzed routinely collected data from electronical medical records in HIV-infected patients aged 15 years or older and enrolled at Carmelo Hospital of Chokwe in Chokwe from 2002 to 2019. Attrition was defined as individuals who were either reported dead or lost to follow-up (LTFU) (≥ 90 days since the last clinic visit with missed medical pick-up after 3 days of failed calls). Kaplan–Meier survival curves and Cox regression analyses were used to model the incidence and predictors of time to attrition. From January 2002 to December 2019, 16,321 patients were enrolled on antiretroviral therapy (ART): 59.2% were women, and 37.9% were aged 25–34 years old. At the time of the analysis, 7279 (44.6%) were active and on ART. Overall, the 16,321 adults on ART contributed a total of 72,987 person-years of observation. The overall attrition rate was 9.46 per 100 person-years. Cox regression showed a higher risk of attrition in those following an inpatient regimen (hazard ratio [HR] 3.18, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.89–3.50; p < 0.001), having CD4 counts under 50 cells/µL (HR 1.91, 95% CI 1.63–2.24, p < 0.001), receiving anti-TB treatment within 90 days of ART initiation (HR 6.53, 95% CI 5.72–7.45; p < 0.001), classified as WHO clinical stage III (HR 3.75, 95% CI 3.21–4.37; p < 0.001), and having Kaposi’s sarcoma (HR 1.99, 95% CI 1.65–2.39, p < 0.001). Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that patients with CD4 counts of less than 50 cells/µL on ART initiation had a 40% lower chance of survival at 18 years. Low CD4 cell counts, ART initiation as an inpatient, WHO clinical stage III, and anti-tuberculosis treatment within 90 days of ART initiation were strongly associated with attrition. Strengthening HIV testing and ART treatment, improving the diagnosis of tuberculosis before ART initiation, and guaranteed psychosocial support systems are the best tools to reduce patient attrition after starting ART.

Mortality and Attrition Rates within the First Year of Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation among People Living with HIV in Guangxi, China: An Observational Cohort Study

Objective

To assess the mortality and attrition rates within the first year of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV) in rural Guangxi, China.

Design

Observational cohort study. Setting. The core treatment indicators and data were collected with standard and essential procedures as per the Free ART Manual guidelines across all the rural health care centers of Guangxi. Participants. 58,115 PLHIV who were under ART were included in the study. Interventions. The data collected included sociodemographic characteristics that consist of age, sex, marital status, route of HIV transmission, CD4 cell count before ART, initial ART regimen, level of ART site, and year of ART initiation. Primary and Secondary Outcome Measures. Mortality and attrition rate following ART initiation.

Results

The average mortality rate was 5.94 deaths, and 17.52 attritions per 100 person-years within the first year of ART initiation among PLHIV. The mortality rate was higher among intravenous drug users (Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) 1.27, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.14-1.43), prefecture as a level of ART site (AHR 1.14, 95% CI 1.02-1.28), and county as the level of ART site (AHR 2.12, 95% CI 1.90-2.37). Attrition was higher among intravenous drug users (AHR 1.87, 95% CI 1.75-2.00), the first-line ART containing AZT (AHR 1.09, 95% CI 1.03-1.16), and first-line ART containing LVP/r (AHR 1.34, 95% CI 1.23-1.46).

Conclusion

The mortality and attrition rates were both at the highest level in the first year of post-ART; continued improvement in the quality of HIV treatment and care is needed.

Mortality Over Long-term Follow-up for People With HIV Receiving Longitudinal Care and Antiretroviral Therapy in Rural Haiti

BACKGROUND

Deaths from HIV have fallen dramatically with the increasing availability of fully suppressive antiretroviral therapy (ART), and yet HIV remains the ninth leading cause of death in low-income countries. As more people with HIV enter care and receive ART, the focus will need to shift from expanding ART to including long-term program effectiveness and outcomes for people with HIV already engaged in care.

METHODS

We evaluated risk factors for mortality among people with HIV on ART receiving longitudinal care in rural Haiti. We assessed baseline characteristics using a household survey and abstracted clinical characteristics from the electronic record. We used multivariable Cox regression models to identify risk factors for mortality.

RESULTS

There were 464 people included in this study with a median follow-up (interquartile range [IQR]) of 69 (44-77) months, during which time 37 (8%) were lost to follow-up and 118 (25%) died (median time to death [IQR], 29 [12-53] months). After adjustment, poverty (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 1.12 per 10-percentage point increased probability; 95% CI, 1.01-1.24) and single marital status (AHR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.08-2.36) were associated with increased mortality. Age (AHR, 0.78 per 10-year increase; 95% CI, 0.64-0.94), role function quality of life (AHR, 0.75 per quintile increase; 95% CI, 0.62-0.90), and CD4 count (AHR, 0.66 per 100 cells/μL; 95% CI, 0.58-0.75) were associated with decreased mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Poverty, marital status, and quality of life were associated with mortality. Social protection should be evaluated as a strategy to reduce mortality for people with HIV in concert with increasing access to ART.

Integration of HIV services with primary care in Yangon, Myanmar: a retrospective cohort analysis

OBJECTIVES

Integration of HIV care with general healthcare may improve patient engagement. We assessed patient outcomes in four clinics offering HIV care integrated into primary care clinics in Yangon, Myanmar.

METHODS

We carried out a retrospective cohort analysis of 4551 patients who started antiretroviral therapy between 2009 and 2017. Mortality and disengagement from care were assessed using Cox regression.

RESULTS

People living with HIV presented late with low CD4 counts [median (25^th , 75^th percentile) = 178 (65, 308) from 4216 patients] and advanced HIV (69% with stage 3 or 4). Survival was 0.95 at 1 year and 0.90 at 5 years. Males were at a higher risk of mortality than females [unadjusted hazard ratio (uHR) = 1.6 (95% CI: 1.3-2.0). Patients linked to HIV care via antenatal care or partner/parent notification were at reduced risk of mortality [uHR = 0.4 (95% CI: 0.1-1.0) and uHR = 0.5 (95% CI: 0.3-0.7)] relative to patients who presented for HIV testing. The cumulative incidence of disengagement was 0.06 at 1 year and 0.15 at 5 years. Young adults had a higher risk of disengagement than did children and older patients. Women linked to HIV care via antenatal care services were at increased risk of disengagement relative to patients who came for HIV testing (uHR = 2.4; 95% CI: 1.7-3.4). Mortality and disengagement remained steady over calendar time as the programme scaled up.

CONCLUSIONS

HIV care within a primary care model is effective to attain early linkage to care, with high survival. However, close attention should be given to disengagement from care, in particular for pregnant women.

Long-term virologic responses to antiretroviral therapy among HIV-positive patients entering adherence clubs in Khayelitsha, Cape Town, South Africa: a longitudinal analysis

INTRODUCTION

In South Africa, an estimated 4.6 million people were accessing antiretroviral therapy (ART) in 2018. As universal Test and Treat is implemented, these numbers will continue to increase. Given the need for lifelong care for millions of individuals, differentiated service delivery models for ART services such as adherence clubs (ACs) for stable patients are required. In this study, we describe long-term virologic outcomes of patients who have ever entered ACs in Khayelitsha, Cape Town.

METHODS

We included adult patients enrolled in ACs in Khayelitsha between January 2011 and December 2016 with a recorded viral load (VL) before enrolment. Risk factors for an elevated VL (VL >1000 copies/mL) and confirmed virologic failure (two consecutive VLs >1000 copies/mL one year apart) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. VL completeness over time was assessed.

RESULTS

Overall, 8058 patients were included in the analysis, contributing 16,047 person-years of follow-up from AC entry (median follow-up time 1.7 years, interquartile range [IQR]:0.9 to 2.9). At AC entry, 74% were female, 46% were aged between 35 and 44 years, and the median duration on ART was 4.8 years (IQR: 3.0 to 7.2). Among patients virologically suppressed at AC entry (n = 8058), 7136 (89%) had a subsequent VL test, of which 441 (6%) experienced an elevated VL (median time from AC entry 363 days, IQR: 170 to 728). Older age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.46 to 0.88), more recent year of AC entry (aHR 0.76, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.84) and higher CD4 count (aHR 0.67, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.84) were protective against experiencing an elevated VL. Among patients with an elevated VL, 52% (150/291) with a repeat VL test subsequently experienced confirmed virologic failure in a median time of 112 days (IQR: 56 to 168). Frequency of VL testing was constant over time (82 to 85%), with over 90% of patients remaining virologically suppressed.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates low prevalence of elevated VLs and confirmed virologic failure among patients who entered ACs. Although ACs were expanded rapidly, most patients were well monitored and remained stable, supporting the continued rollout of this model.

Misreporting of Patient Outcomes in the South African National HIV Treatment Database: Consequences for Programme Planning, Monitoring, and Evaluation

Background: Monitoring progress toward global treatment targets using HIV programme data in sub-Saharan Africa has proved challenging. Constraints in routine data collection and reporting can lead to biased estimates of treatment outcomes. In 2010, South Africa introduced an electronic patient monitoring system for HIV patient visits, TIER.Net. We compare treatment status and outcomes recorded in TIER.Net to outcomes ascertained through detailed record review and tracing in order to assess discrepancies and biases in retention and mortality rates. Methods: The Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in north-eastern South Africa is served by eight public primary healthcare facilities. Since 2014, HIV patient visits are logged electronically at these clinics, with patient records individually linked to their HDSS record. These data were used to generate a list of patients >90 days late for their last scheduled clinic visit and deemed lost to follow-up (LTFU). Patient outcomes were ascertained through a review of the TIER.Net database, physical patient files, registers kept by two non-government organizations that assist with patient tracing, cross-referencing with the HDSS records and supplementary physical tracing. Descriptive statistics were used to compare patient outcomes reported in TIER.Net to their outcome ascertained in the study. Results: Of 1,074 patients that were eligible for this analysis, TIER.Net classified 533 (49.6%) as LTFU, 80 (7.4%) as deceased, and 186 (17.3%) as transferred out. TIER.Net misclassified 36% of patient outcomes, overestimating LTFU and underestimating mortality and transfers out. TIER.Net missed 40% of deaths and 43% of transfers out. Patients categorized as LTFU in TIER.Net were more likely to be misclassified than patients classified as deceased or transferred out. Discussion: Misclassification of patient outcomes in TIER.Net has consequences for programme forecasting, monitoring and evaluation. Undocumented transfers accounted for the majority of misclassification, suggesting that the transfer process between clinics should be improved for more accurate reporting of patient outcomes. Processes that lead to correct classification of patient status including patient tracing should be strengthened. Clinics could cross-check all available data sources before classifying patients as LTFU. Programme evaluators and modelers could consider using correction factors to improve estimates of outcomes from TIER.Net.

Factors associated with 36-month loss to follow-up and mortality outcomes among HIV-infected adults on antiretroviral therapy in Central Kenya

BACKGROUND

The scale-up of HIV treatment programs has resulted in a reduction in HIV-related morbidity and mortality. However, retention of patients in these programs remains a challenge in sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding factors associated with loss to follow-up (LTFU) and mortality outcomes is therefore important to inform targeted program interventions.

METHODS

A retrospective multi-cohort analysis of 23,890 adult patients on ART over 36 months of follow-up in Kenya was done. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was done to assess for factors associated with LTFU and mortality at 6, 12, 24, and 36 months of follow-up.

RESULTS

Majority, 67.7%, were female. At 36 months, 27.2% were LTFU and 13.5% had died. Factors associated with mortality at 36 months included older age (51 years and above) using 20-35 years as reference [(adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.51, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.23-1.86, p < 0.001], being male (aOR, 1.59, 95% CI 1.39-1.83, p < 0.001), divorced using married as reference (aOR, 1.86, 95% CI 1.56-2.22, p < 0.001), having a body mass index (BMI) score of less than 18.5 kg/m2 using 18.5-24.9 kg/m2 as reference (aOR = 1.79, 95% CI 1.52-2.11, p < 0.001), and, World Health Organization stage III and IV using stage I as the reference (aOR, 1.94, 95% CI 1.43-2.63 and aOR, 4.24, 95% CI 3.06-5.87, p < 0.001 respectively). Factors associated with LTFU at 36 months included being young between 20 and 35 years (aOR, 1.49, 95% CI 1.40-1.59, p < 0.001) using 36-50 years as reference, being male (aOR, 1.19, 95% CI 1.12-1.27, p < 0.001), and being single or divorced using married as reference (aOR, 1.34, 95% CI 1.23-1.45 and aOR, 1.25, 95% CI 1.15-1.36, p < 0.001 respectively). Patients with baseline BMI of less than 18.5 kg/m2 using normal BMI as reference (aOR, 1.68, 95% CI 1.39-2.02, p < 0.001) were also likely to be LTFU.

CONCLUSIONS

Factors associated with LTFU and mortality were generally similar over time. Implementation of programs in similar settings should be tailored to gender, age profiles, nutritional, and, marital status of patients to address LTFU. In addition, programs should focus on the care of older patients to reduce the risk of mortality.

Compromise of Second-Line Antiretroviral Therapy Due to High Rates of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Drug Resistance in Mozambican Treatment-Experienced Children With Virologic Failure

BACKGROUND

Virologic failure (VF) is highly prevalent in sub-Saharan African children on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and is often associated with human immunodeficiency virus drug resistance (DR). Most children still lack access to routine viral load (VL) monitoring for early identification of treatment failure, with implications for the efficacy of second-line ART.

METHODS

Children aged 1 to 14 years on ART for ≥12 months at 6 public facilities in Maputo, Mozambique were consecutively enrolled after informed consent. Chart review and caregiver interviews were conducted. VL testing was performed, and specimens with ≥1000 copies/mL were genotyped.

RESULTS

Of the 715 children included, the mean age was 103 months, 85.8% had no immunosuppression, 73.1% were taking stavudine/lamivudine/nevirapine, and 20.1% had a history prevention of mother-to-child transmission exposure. The mean time on ART was 60.0 months. VF was present in 259 patients (36.3%); 248 (95.8%) specimens were genotyped, and DR mutations were found in 238 (96.0%). Severe immunosuppression and nutritional decline were associated with DR. M184V and Y181C were the most common mutations. In the 238 patients with DR, standard second-line ART would have 0, 1, 2, and 3 effective antiretrovirals in 1 (0.4%), 74 (31.1%), 150 (63.0%), and 13 (5.5%) patients, respectively.

CONCLUSION

This cohort had high rates of VF and DR with frequent compromise of second-line ART. There is urgent need to scale-up VL monitoring and heat-stable protease inhibitor formulations or integrase inhibitorsfor a more a durable first-line regimen that can feasibly be implemented in developing settings.

Programmatic outcomes and impact of rapid public sector antiretroviral therapy expansion in adults prior to introduction of the WHO treat-all approach in rural Eswatini

Objectives

To assess long‐term antiretroviral therapy (ART) outcomes during rapid HIV programme expansion in the public sector of Eswatini (formerly Swaziland).

Methods

This is a retrospectively established cohort of HIV‐positive adults (≥16 years) who started first‐line ART in 25 health facilities in Shiselweni (Eswatini) between 01/2006 and 12/2014. Temporal trends in ART attrition, treatment expansion and ART coverage were described over 9 years. We used flexible parametric survival models to assess the relationship between time to ART attrition and covariates.

Results

Of 24 772 ART initiations, 6% (n = 1488) occurred in 2006, vs. 13% (n = 3192) in 2014. Between these years, median CD4 cell count at ART initiation increased (113–265 cells/mm³). The active treatment cohort expanded 8.4‐fold, ART coverage increased 8.0‐fold (7.1% in 2006 vs. 56.8% in 2014) and 12‐month crude ART retention improved from 71% to 86%. Compared with the pre‐decentralisation period (2006–2007), attrition decreased by 5% (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.95, 95% confidence interval 0.88–1.02) during HIV‐TB service decentralisation (2008–2010), by 17% (aHR 0.83, 0.75–0.92) during service consolidation (2011–2012), and by 20% (aHR 0.80, 0.71–0.90) during further treatment expansion (2013–2014). The risk of attrition was higher for young age, male sex, pathological baseline haemoglobin and biochemistry results, more toxic drug regimens, WHO III/IV staging and low CD4 cell count; access to a telephone was protective.

Conclusions

Programmatic outcomes improved during large expansion of the treatment cohort and increased ART coverage. Changes in ART programming may have contributed to better outcomes.

Opportunistic infection at the start of antiretroviral therapy and baseline CD4+ count less than 50 cells/mm3 are associated with poor immunological recovery

Introduction There is a dearth of studies assessing the efficacy and immunological improvement in patients started on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in India. This study was undertaken to assess the 2-year treatment outcomes in HIV-positive patients initiated on ART in a tertiary-care hospital. Methods After approval from the Institutional Ethics Committee, adult HIV-positive patients from a tertiary-care hospital, initiated on ART between January 2013 and February 2015, were included in the study. Data on clinical and immunological parameters were obtained from medical case records over a period of 2 years after initiation of therapy. Intention-to-treat analysis was done using a descriptive approach, using SPSS version 15 (SPSS Inc. Released 2006. SPSS for Windows, Version 15.0. Chicago, SPSS Inc.). A logistic regression analysis was done to assess the predictors for poor outcomes. A p-value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results ART was initiated in 299 adult patients. At 1 and 2 years, the median (interquartile range) change in CD4+ cell count was 65 (39, 98) cells/mm3 and 160 (95, 245) cells/mm3. The change observed after 2 years of treatment initiation was statistically significant compared with that after 1 year. Three deaths occurred during the study period and 28 were lost to follow-up. Male sex, presence of at least one opportunistic infection at the start of therapy, and baseline CD4+ count <50 cells/mm3 were associated with poor immunological recovery. Conclusions With long-term treatment and regular follow-up, sustained clinical and immunological outcomes can be obtained in resource-limited settings.

Attrition from antiretroviral treatment services among pregnant and non-pregnant patients following adoption of Option B+ in Haiti

BACKGROUND

Access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) has expanded in Haiti because of the adoption of Option B+ and the revision of treatment guidelines. Retention in care and treatment varies greatly and few studies have examined retention rates, particularly among women enrolled in Option B+.

OBJECTIVE

To assess attrition among pregnant and non-pregnant patients initiating ART following adoption of Option B+ in Haiti.

METHODS

Longitudinal data of adult patients initiated on ART from October 2012 through August 2014 at 73 health facilities across Haiti were analyzed using a survival analysis framework to determine levels of attrition. The Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards regression were used to examine risk factors associated with attrition.

RESULTS

Among 17,059 patients who initiated ART, 7627 (44.7%) were non-pregnant women, 5899 (34.6%) were men, and 3533 (20.7%) were Option B+ clients. Attrition from the ART program was 36.7% at 12 months (95% CI: 35.9-37.5%). Option B+ patients had the highest level of attrition at 50.4% at 12 months (95% CI: 48.6-52.3%). While early HIV disease stage at ART initiation was protective among non-pregnant women and men, it was a strong risk factor among Option B+ clients. In adjusted analyses, key protective factors were older age (p < 0.0001), living near the health facility (p = 0.04), having another known HIV-positive household member (p < 0.0001), having greater body mass index (BMI) (p < 0.0001), pre-ART counseling (p < 0.0001), and Cotrimoxazole prophylaxis during baseline (p < 0.01). Higher attrition was associated with rapidly starting ART after enrollment (p < 0.0001), anemia (p < 0.0001), and regimen tenofovir+lamivudine+nevirapine (TDF+3TC+NVP) (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

ART attrition in Haiti is high among adults, especially among Option B+ patients. Identifying newly initiated patients most at risk for attrition and providing appropriate interventions could help reduce ART attrition.

Validity of reported retention in antiretroviral therapy after roll-out to peripheral facilities in Mozambique: Results of a retrospective national cohort analysis

Background

Retention in anti-retroviral therapy (ART) presents a challenge in sub-Saharan Africa. In Mozambique, after roll-out to peripheral facilities, the 12-month retention rate was reported mostly from sites with an electronic patient tracking system (EPTS), representing only 65% of patients. We conducted a nationally representative study, compared 12-month retention at EPTS and non-EPTS sites, and its predictors.

Methods

Applying a proportionate to population size sampling strategy, we obtained a nationally representative sample of patients who initiated ART between January 2013 and June 2014. We calculated weighted proportions of the patients’ status at 12 months after ART initiation, and 12-month incidence of lost to follow-up (LTFU) and death. We assessed determinants of LTFU and death by calculating adjusted hazard ratios (AHR) through multivariate cox-proportional hazard models.

Results

Among 19,297 patients sampled, 54.3% were still active, 33.1% LTFU, 2.0% dead, 2.6% transferred-out and 8.0% had unknown status, 12 months after ART initiation. Total attrition rate (LTFU or dead) was 45.5/100PY, higher at facilities without EPTS (51.8/100PY) than with EPTS (37.7/100PY). Clinical stage IV (AHR = 1.7), CD4 count ≤150 (AHR = 1.3) and being pregnant (AHR = 1.6) were significantly associated with LTFU. Clinical stage III or IV (AHR = 2.1 and 3.8), CD4 count ≤150 (AHR = 3.0), not being pregnant (AHR = 3.0), and ART regimens with stavudine (AHR = 4.28) were significantly associated with deaths. Patients enrolled in adherence support groups were 4.6 times less likely to be LTFU, but the number (n = 174) was too small to be significant (p = 0.273).

Conclusion

Retention in ART was substantially lower at non-EPTS sites. EPTS should be expanded to all ART sites to facilitate comprehensive routine monitoring of retention in care. Retention in Mozambique is low and needs to be improved, especially among pregnant women and patients with advanced disease at ART initiation. The effect of ART adherence support groups needs to be further monitored.

Early mortality among children and adults in antiretroviral therapy programs in Southwest Ethiopia, 2003-15

Background

Several studies reported that the majority of deaths in HIV-infected people are documented in their early antiretroviral therapy (ART) follow-ups. Early mortality refers to death of people on ART for follow up period of below 24 months due to any cause. The current study assessed predictors of early HIV mortality in Southwest Ethiopia.

Methods

We have conducted a retrospective analysis of 5299 patient records dating from June 2003- March 2015. To estimate survival time and compare the time to event among the different groups of patients, we used a Kaplan Meir curve and log-rank test. To identify mortality predictors, we used a cox regression analysis. We used SPSS-20 for all analyses.

Results

A total of 326 patients died in the 12 years follow-up period contributing to 6.2% cumulative incidence and 21.7 deaths per 1000 person-year observations incidence rate. Eighty-nine percent of the total deaths were documented in the first two years follow up—an early-term ART follow up. Early HIV mortality rates among adults were 50% less in separated, divorced or widowed patients compared with never married patients, 1.6 times higher in patients with baseline CD4 count <200 cells/μL compared to baseline CD4 count ≥200 cells/μL, 1.5 times higher in patients with baseline WHO clinical stage 3 or 4 compared to baseline WHO clinical stage 1 or 2, 2.1 times higher in patients with immunologic failure compared with no immunologic failure, 60% less in patients with fair or poor compared with good adherence, 2.9 times higher in patients with bedridden functional status compared to working functional status, and 2.7 times higher with patients who had no history of HIV testing before diagnosis compared to those who had history of HIV testing. Most predictors of early mortality remained the same to the predictors of an overall HIV mortality. When discontinuation was assumed as an event, the predictors of an overall HIV mortality included age between 25–50 years, base line CD4 count, developing immunologic failure, bedridden functional status, and no history of HIV testing before diagnosis.

Conclusions

The great majority of deaths were documented in the first two years of ART, and several predictors of early HIV mortality were also for the overall mortality when discontinuation was assumed as event or censored. Considering the above population, interventions to improve HIV program in the first two years of ART follow up should be improved.

Twelve-year mortality in adults initiating antiretroviral therapy in South Africa

Introduction: South Africa has the largest number of individuals living with HIV and the largest antiretroviral therapy (ART) programme worldwide. In September 2016, ART eligibility was extended to all 7.1 million HIV-positive South Africans. To ensure that further expansion of services does not compromise quality of care, long-term outcomes must be monitored. Few studies have reported long-term mortality in resource-constrained settings, where mortality ascertainment is challenging. Combining site records with data linked to the national vital registration system, sites in the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS Southern Africa collaboration can identify >95% of deaths in patients with civil identification numbers (IDs). This study used linked data to explore long-term mortality and viral suppression among adults starting ART in South Africa.

Methods: The study was a cohort analysis of routine data on adults with IDs starting ART 2004–2015 in five large ART cohorts. Mortality was estimated overall and by gender using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and Cox’s proportional hazards regression. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated by dividing observed numbers of deaths by numbers expected if patients had been HIV-negative. Viral suppression in patients with viral loads (VLs) in their last year of follow-up was the secondary outcome.

Results: Among 72,812 adults followed for 350,376 person years (pyrs), the crude mortality rate was 3.08 (95% CI 3.02–3.14)/100 pyrs. Patients were predominantly female (67%) and the percentage of men initiating ART did not increase. Cumulative mortality 12 years after ART initiation was 23.9% (33.4% male and 19.4% female). Mortality peaked in patients enrolling in 2007–2009 and was higher in men than women at all durations. Observed mortality rates were higher than HIV-negative mortality, decreasing with duration. By 48 months, observed mortality was close to that in the HIV-negative population, and SMRs were similar for all baseline CD4 strata. Three-quarters of patients had VLs in their last year, and 86% of these were virally suppressed.

Conclusions: The South African ART programme has shown a remarkable ability to initiate and manage patients successfully over 12 years, despite rapid expansion. With further scale-up, testing and initiating men on ART must be a national priority.

Mortality in the First 3 Months on Antiretroviral Therapy Among HIV-Positive Adults in Low- and Middle-income Countries: A Meta-analysis

Previous meta-analyses reported mortality estimates of 12-month post-antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation; however, 40%-60% of deaths occur in the first 3 months on ART, a more sensitive measure of averted deaths through early ART initiation. To determine whether early mortality is dropping as treatment thresholds have increased, we reviewed studies of 3 months on ART initiation in low- to middle-income countries. Studies of 3-month mortality from January 2003 to April 2016 were searched in 5 databases. Articles were included that reported 3-month mortality from a low- to middle-income country; nontrial setting and participants were ≥15. We assessed overall mortality and stratified by year using random effects models. Among 58 included studies, although not significant, pooled estimates show a decline in mortality when comparing studies whose enrollment of patients ended before 2010 (7.0%; 95% CI: 6.0 to 8.0) with the studies during or after 2010 (4.0%; 95% CI: 3.0 to 5.0). To continue to reduce early HIV-related mortality at the population level, intensified efforts to increase demand for ART through active testing and facilitated referral should be a priority. Continued financial investments by multinational partners and the implementation of creative interventions to mitigate multidimensional complex barriers of accessing care and treatment for HIV are needed.

A Decade of Antiretroviral Therapy Scale-up in Mozambique: Evaluation of Outcome Trends and New Models of Service Delivery Among More Than 300,000 Patients Enrolled During 2004-2013

BACKGROUND

During 2004-2013 in Mozambique, 455,600 HIV-positive adults (≥15 years old) initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART). We evaluated trends in patient characteristics and outcomes during 2004-2013, outcomes of universal treatment for pregnant women (Option B+) implemented since 2013, and effect on outcomes of distributing ART to stable patients through Community ART Support Groups (CASG) since 2010.

METHODS

Data for 306,335 adults starting ART during 2004-2013 at 170 ART facilities were analyzed. Mortality and loss to follow-up (LTFU) were estimated using competing risks models. Outcome determinants were estimated using proportional hazards models, including CASG participation as a time-varying covariate.

RESULTS

Compared with ART enrollees in 2004, enrollees in 2013 were more commonly female (55% vs. 73%), more commonly pregnant if female (<1% vs. 30%), and had a higher median baseline CD4 count (139 vs. 235/μL). During 2004-2013, observed 6-month mortality declined from 7% to 2% but LTFU increased from 24% to 30%. Pregnant women starting ART with CD4 count >350/μL and WHO stage I/II under Option B+ guidelines in 2013 had low 6-month mortality (0.1%) but high 6-month LTFU (38%). During 2010-2013, 6766 patients joined CASGs. In multivariable analysis, compared with nonparticipation in CASG, CASG participation was associated with 35% lower LTFU but similar mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Initiation of ART at earlier disease stages in later calendar years might explain observed declines in mortality. Retention interventions are needed to address trends of increasing LTFU overall and the high LTFU among Option B+ pregnant women specifically. Further expansion of CASG could help reduce LTFU.

Outcomes after antiretroviral therapy during the expansion of HIV services in Haiti

Background

We report patient outcomes after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in a network of HIV facilities in Haiti, including temporal trends and differences across clinics, during the expansion of HIV services in the country.

Methods

We assessed outcomes at 12 months after ART initiation (baseline) using routinely collected data on adults (≥15 years) in 11 HIV facilities from July 2007-December 2013. Outcomes include death (ascertained from medical records), lost to follow-up (LTF) defined as no visit > 365 days from ART initiation, and retention defined as being alive and attending care ≥ 365 days from ART initiation. Outcomes were compared across calendar year of ART initiation and across facilities. Risk factors for death and LTF were assessed using Cox proportional hazards and competing risk regression models.

Results

Cumulatively, 9,718 adults initiated ART with median age 37 years (IQR 30–46). Median CD4 count was 254 cells/uL (IQR 139–350). Twelve months after ART initiation, 4.4% (95% CI 4.0–4.8) of patients died, 21.7% (95% CI 20.9–22.6) were LTF, and 73.9% (95% CI 73.0–74.8) were retained in care. Twelve-month mortality decreased from 13.8% among adults who started ART in 2007 to 4.4% in 2013 (p<0.001). Twelve-month LTF after ART start was 29.2% in 2007, 18.7% in 2008, and increased to 30.1% in 2013 (p<0.001). Overall, twelve-month retention after ART start did not change over time but varied widely across facilities from 61.1% to 86.5%.

Conclusion

Expansion of HIV services across Haiti has been successful with increasing numbers of patients initiating ART and decreasing twelve-month mortality rates. However, overall retention has not improved, despite differences across facilities, suggesting additional strategies to improve engagement in care are needed.

Magnitude and predictors of antiretroviral treatment failure among HIV-infected children in Fiche and Kuyu hospitals, Oromia region, Ethiopia: a retrospective cohort study

The objective of the study was to assess the magnitude and predictors of first‐line antiretroviral treatment failure among HIV‐infected children. A retrospective cohort study was conducted between January 2006 and December 2015. All pediatric patients of <15 years old and who took at least 6 months of ART in Fiche and Kuyu hospitals of Oromia region, Ethiopia were included in the study. Collected data were entered and analyzed using SPSS version 20. Multivariable logistic regression was employed to identify predictors of treatment failure. Data of 269 children were analyzed and majority (53.9%) of the children were males with a mean age of 9.8 ± 3.64 years. Based on the two WHO criteria, overall ART failure was found to be 51 (18.8%), of which 33 (12.26%) had clinical and 18 (6.69%) had immunologic failures. The mean time to the detection of treatment failure was 41 ± 24.96 months. Children's age between 6 and 9 years (AOR = 0.26, 95% CI: 0.09, 0.72) was protective toward treatment failure, while lost to follow‐up (AOR = 7.54, 95% CI: 2.35, 24.16), died (AOR = 22.22, 95% CI: 3.75, 131.54), transferred out (AOR = 3.34, 95% CI: 1.41, 7.87), suboptimal adherence to ART (AOR = 4.85, 95% CI: 1.82, 12.93), baseline CD4 count of <50 cells/mm³ (AOR = 4.28, 95% CI: 3.49, 5.9), and WHO advanced clinical stage (AOR = 2.46, 95% CI: 1.14, 5.31) were found to be predictors of treatment failure. The study revealed that the treatment failure is high and the mean time to develop treatment failure is short. The predictors for treatment failure were suboptimal adherence, lost to follow‐up, transferred out, initial CD4 count <50 cells/mm³, initial WHO stages 3 and 4. On the other hand, being in the age of 6–9 years is protective from developing treatment failure as compared to the other age category.

Outcomes of Nigeria's HIV/AIDS Treatment Program for Patients Initiated on Antiretroviral Treatment between 2004-2012

Background

The Nigerian Antiretroviral therapy (ART) program started in 2004 and now ranks among the largest in Africa. However, nationally representative data on outcomes have not been reported.

Methods

We evaluated retrospective cohort data from a nationally representative sample of adults aged ≥15 years who initiated ART during 2004 to 2012. Data were abstracted from 3,496 patient records at 35 sites selected using probability-proportional-to-size (PPS) sampling. Analyses were weighted and controlled for the complex survey design. The main outcome measures were mortality, loss to follow-up (LTFU), and retention (the proportion alive and on ART). Potential predictors of attrition were assessed using competing risk regression models.

Results

At ART initiation, 66.4 percent (%) were females, median age was 33 years, median weight 56 kg, median CD4 count 161 cells/mm³, and 47.1% had stage III/IV disease. The percentage of patients retained at 12, 24, 36 and 48 months was 81.2%, 74.4%, 67.2%, and 61.7%, respectively. Over 10,088 person-years of ART, mortality, LTFU, and overall attrition (mortality, LTFU, and treatment stop) rates were 1.1 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.7–1.8), 12.3 (95%CI: 8.9–17.0), and 13.9 (95% CI: 10.4–18.5) per 100 person-years (py) respectively. Highest attrition rates of 55.4/100py were witnessed in the first 3 months on ART. Predictors of LTFU included: lower-than-secondary level education (reference: Tertiary), care in North-East and South-South regions (reference: North-Central), presence of moderate/severe anemia, symptomatic functional status, and baseline weight <45kg. Predictor of mortality was WHO stage higher than stage I. Male sex, severe anemia, and care in a small clinic were associated with both mortality and LTFU.

Conclusion

Moderate/Advanced HIV disease was predictive of attrition; earlier ART initiation could improve program outcomes. Retention interventions targeting men and those with lower levels of education are needed. Further research to understand geographic and clinic size variations with outcome is warranted.

Implementation of a pragmatic, stepped-wedge cluster randomized trial to evaluate impact of Botswana's Xpert MTB/RIF diagnostic algorithm on TB diagnostic sensitivity and early antiretroviral therapy mortality

BACKGROUND

In 2012, as a pilot for Botswana's national Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) rollout plans, intensified tuberculosis (TB) case finding (ICF) activities were strengthened at 22 HIV treatment clinics prior to phased activation of 13 Xpert instruments. Together, the strengthened ICF intervention and Xpert activation are referred to as the "Xpert package".

METHODS

The evaluation, called the Xpert Package Rollout Evaluation using a Stepped-wedge design (XPRES), has two key objectives: (1) to compare sensitivity of microscopy-based and Xpert-based pulmonary TB diagnostic algorithms in diagnosing sputum culture-positive TB; and (2) to evaluate impact of the "Xpert package" on all-cause, 6-month, adult antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality. A pragmatic, stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trial design was chosen. The design involves enrollment of three cohorts: (1) cohort R, a retrospective cohort of all study clinic ART enrollees in the 24 months before study initiation (July 31, 2012); (2) cohort A, a prospective cohort of all consenting patients presenting to study clinics after study initiation, who received the ICF intervention and the microscopy-based TB diagnostic algorithm; and (3) cohort B, a prospective cohort of all consenting patients presenting to study clinics after Xpert activation, who received the ICF intervention and the Xpert-based TB diagnostic algorithm. TB diagnostic sensitivity will be compared between TB culture-positive enrollees in cohorts A and B. All-cause, 6-month ART-mortality will be compared between cohorts R and B. With anticipated cohort R, A, and B sample sizes of about 10,131, 1,878, and 4,258, respectively, the study is estimated to have >80 % power to detect differences in pre-versus post-Xpert TB diagnostic sensitivity if pre-Xpert sensitivity is ≤52.5 % and post-Xpert sensitivity ≥82.5 %, and >80 % power to detect a 40 % reduction in all-cause, 6-month, ART mortality between cohorts R and B if cohort R mortality is ≥13/100 person-years.

DISCUSSION

Only one small previous trial (N = 424) among ART enrolees in Zimbabwe evaluated, in a secondary analysis, Xpert impact on all-cause 6-month ART mortality. No mortality impact was observed. This Botswana trial, with its larger sample size and powered specifically to detect differences in all-cause 6-month ART mortality, remains well-positioned to contribute understanding of Xpert impact.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Retrospectively registered at ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02538952 .

Decentralizing Access to Antiretroviral Therapy for Children Living with HIV in Swaziland

BACKGROUND

In 2007, Swaziland initiated a hub-and-spoke model for decentralizing antiretroviral therapy (ART) access for HIV-infected children (<15 years old). Decentralization was facilitated through (1) down referral of stable children on ART from overburdened central facilities (hubs) to primary healthcare clinics (spokes) and (2) pediatric ART initiation at spokes (spoke initiation).

METHODS

We conducted a nationally representative retrospective cohort study among children starting ART during 2004-2010 to assess effect of down referral and spoke initiation on rates of loss to follow-up (LTFU), death and attrition (death or LTFU). Twelve of 28 pediatric ART hubs were randomly selected using probability-proportional-to-size sampling. Seven selected facilities had initiated hub-and-spoke decentralization by study start; at these facilities, 901 of 1893 hub-initiated and maintained (hub-maintained) children and 495 of 1105 down-referred or spoke-initiated children were randomly selected for record abstraction. At the 5 hub-only facilities, 612 of 1987 children were randomly selected. Multivariable proportional hazards regression was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (AHR) for effect of down referral (a time-varying covariate) and spoke initiation on outcomes.

RESULTS

Among 2008 children at ART initiation, median age was 5.0 years, median CD4% 12.0%, median CD4 count 358 cells/µL and median weight-for-age Z score -1.91. Controlling for known confounders, down referral was strongly protective against LTFU (AHR: 0.40; 95% confidence interval: 0.20-0.79) and attrition (AHR: 0.46; 95% confidence interval: 0.26-0.83) but not mortality. Compared with hub-only children or hub-maintained children, spoke-initiated children had similar outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Decentralization of pediatric ART through down referral and spoke initiation within a hub-and-spoke system should be continued and might improve program outcomes.

Assessment of linkages from HIV testing to enrolment and retention in HIV care in Central Mozambique

Introduction

Effectiveness of the rapid expansion of antiretroviral therapy (ART) throughout sub-Saharan Africa is highly dependent on adequate enrolment and retention in HIV care. However, the measurement of both has been challenging in these settings. This study aimed to assess enrolment and retention in HIV care (pre-ART and ART) among HIV-positive adults in Central Mozambique, including identification of barriers and facilitators.

Methods

We assessed linkages to and retention in HIV care using a mixed quantitative and qualitative approach in six districts of Manica and Sofala provinces. We analyzed routine district and health facility monthly reports and HIV care registries from April 2012 to March 2013 and used single imputation and trimmed means to adjust for missing values. In eight health facilities in the same districts and period, we assessed retention in HIV care among 795 randomly selected adult patient charts (15 years and older). We also conducted 25 focus group discussions and 53 in-depth interviews with HIV-positive adults, healthcare providers and community members to identify facilitators and barriers to enrolment and retention in HIV care.

Results

Overall, 46% of the monthly HIV testing reports expected at the district level were missing, compared to 6.4% of the pre-ART registry reports. After adjustment for missing values, we estimated that the aggregate numbers of adults registered in pre-ART was 75% of the number of persons tested HIV-positive in the six districts. In the eight health facilities, 40% of the patient charts for adults enrolled in pre-ART and 44% in ART were missing. Of those on ART for whom charts were found, retention in treatment within 90 and 60 days prior to the study team visit was 34 and 25%, respectively. Combining these multiple data sources, the overall estimated retention was 18% in our sample. Individual-level factors were perceived to be key influences to enrolment in HIV care, while health facility and structural-level factors were perceived to be key influences of retention.

Conclusions

Efforts to increase linkages to and retention in HIV care should address individual, health facility, and structural-level factors in Central Mozambique. However, their outcomes cannot be reliably assessed without improving the quality of routine health information systems.

Retention in care of HIV-infected pregnant and lactating women starting ART under Option B+ in rural Mozambique

OBJECTIVE

In 2013, Mozambique adopted Option B+, universal lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all pregnant and lactating women, as national strategy for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV. We analysed retention in care of pregnant and lactating women starting Option B+ in rural northern Mozambique.

METHODS

We compared ART outcomes in pregnant ('B+ pregnant'), lactating ('B+ lactating') and non-pregnant non-lactating women of childbearing age starting ART according to clinical and/or immunological criteria ('own health') between July 2013 and June 2014. Lost to follow-up was defined as no contact >180 days after the last visit. Multivariable competing risk models were adjusted for type of facility (type 1 vs. peripheral type 2 health centre), age, WHO stage and time from HIV diagnosis to ART.

RESULTS

Over 333 person-years of follow-up (243 'B+ pregnant', 65'B+ lactating' and 317 'own health' women), 3.7% of women died and 48.5% were lost to follow-up. 'B+ pregnant' and 'B+ lactating' women were more likely to be lost in the first year (57% vs. 56.9% vs. 31.6%; P < 0.001) and to have no follow-up after the first visit (42.4% vs. 29.2% vs. 16.4%; P < 0.001) than 'own health' women. In adjusted analyses, risk of being lost to follow-up was higher in 'B+ pregnant' (adjusted subhazard ratio [asHR]: 2.77; 95% CI: 2.18-3.50; P < 0.001) and 'B+ lactating' (asHR: 1.94; 95% CI: 1.37-2.74; P < 0.001). Type 2 health centre was the only additional significant risk factor for loss to follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Retention among PLW starting option B+ ART was poor and mainly driven by early losses. The success of Option B+ for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in rural settings with weak health systems will depend on specific improvements in counselling and retention measures, especially at the beginning of treatment.

Trends in CD4 Count Testing, Retention in Pre-ART Care, and ART Initiation Rates over the First Decade of Expansion of HIV Services in Haiti

Background

High attrition during the period from HIV testing to antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is widely reported. Though treatment guidelines have changed to broaden ART eligibility and services have been widely expanded over the past decade, data on the temporal trends in pre-ART outcomes are limited; such data would be useful to guide future policy decisions.

Methods

We evaluated temporal trends and predictors of retention for each step from HIV testing to ART initiation over the past decade at the GHESKIO clinic in Port-au-Prince Haiti. The 24,925 patients >17 years of age who received a positive HIV test at GHESKIO from March 1, 2003 to February 28, 2013 were included. Patients were followed until they remained in pre-ART care for one year or initiated ART.

Results

24,925 patients (61% female, median age 35 years) were included, and 15,008 (60%) had blood drawn for CD4 count within 12 months of HIV testing; the trend increased over time from 36% in Year 1 to 78% in Year 10 (p<0.0001). Excluding transfers, the proportion of patients who were retained in pre-ART care or initiated ART within the first year after HIV testing was 84%, 82%, 64%, and 64%, for CD4 count strata ≤200, 201 to 350, 351 to 500, and >500 cells/mm³, respectively. The trend increased over time for each CD4 strata, and in Year 10, 94%, 95%, 79%, and 74% were retained in pre-ART care or initiated ART for each CD4 strata. Predictors of pre-ART attrition included male gender, low income, and low educational status. Older age and tuberculosis (TB) at HIV testing were associated with retention in care.

Conclusions

The proportion of patients completing assessments for ART eligibility, remaining in pre-ART care, and initiating ART have increased over the last decade across all CD4 count strata, particularly among patients with CD4 count ≤350 cells/mm³. However, additional retention efforts are needed for patients with higher CD4 counts.

CD4 count at antiretroviral therapy initiation and the risk of loss to follow-up: results from a multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is now recommended irrespective of CD4 count. However data on the relationship between CD4 count at ART initiation and loss to follow-up (LTFU) are limited and conflicting.

METHODS

We conducted a cohort analysis including all adults initiating ART (2008-2012) at three public sector sites in South Africa. LTFU was defined as no visit in the 6 months before database closure. The Kaplan-Meier estimator and Cox's proportional hazards models examined the relationship between CD4 count at ART initiation and 24-month LTFU. Final models were adjusted for demographics, year of ART initiation, programme expansion and corrected for unascertained mortality.

RESULTS

Among 17 038 patients, the median CD4 at initiation increased from 119 (IQR 54-180) in 2008 to 257 (IQR 175-318) in 2012. In unadjusted models, observed LTFU was associated with both CD4 counts <100 cells/μL and CD4 counts ≥300 cells/μL. After adjustment, patients with CD4 counts ≥300 cells/μL were 1.35 (95% CI 1.12 to 1.63) times as likely to be LTFU after 24 months compared to those with a CD4 150-199 cells/μL. This increased risk for patients with CD4 counts ≥300 cells/μL was largest in the first 3 months on treatment. Correction for unascertained deaths attenuated the association between CD4 counts <100 cells/μL and LTFU while the association between CD4 counts ≥300 cells/μL and LTFU persisted.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients initiating ART at higher CD4 counts may be at increased risk for LTFU. With programmes initiating patients at higher CD4 counts, models of ART delivery need to be reoriented to support long-term retention.

A Second Look at the Association between Gender and Mortality on Antiretroviral Therapy

Objective

We assessed the association between gender and mortality on antiretroviral therapy (ART) using identical models with and without sex-specific categories for weight and hemoglobin.

Design

Cohort study of adult patients on ART.

Setting

GHESKIO Clinic in Port-au-Prince, Haiti.

Participants

4,717 ART-naïve adult patients consecutively enrolled on ART at GHESKIO from 2003 to 2008.

Main Outcome Measure

Mortality on ART; multivariable analyses were conducted with and without sex-specific categories for weight and hemoglobin.

Results

In Haiti, male gender was associated with mortality (OR 1.61; 95% CI: 1.30–2.00) in multivariable analyses with hemoglobin and weight included as control variables, but not when sex-specific interactions with hemoglobin and weight were used.

Conclusions

If sex-specific categories are omitted, multivariable analyses indicate a higher risk of mortality for males vs. females of the same weight and hemoglobin. However, because males have higher normal values for weight and hemoglobin, the males in this comparison would generally have poorer health status than the females. This may explain why gender differences in mortality are sometimes observed after controlling for differences in baseline variables when gender-specific interactions with weight and hemoglobin are omitted.

The HIV Treatment Gap: Estimates of the Financial Resources Needed versus Available for Scale-Up of Antiretroviral Therapy in 97 Countries from 2015 to 2020

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) released revised guidelines in 2015 recommending that all people living with HIV, regardless of CD4 count, initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) upon diagnosis. However, few studies have projected the global resources needed for rapid scale-up of ART. Under the Health Policy Project, we conducted modeling analyses for 97 countries to estimate eligibility for and numbers on ART from 2015 to 2020, along with the facility-level financial resources required. We compared the estimated financial requirements to estimated funding available.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Current coverage levels and future need for treatment were based on country-specific epidemiological and demographic data. Simulated annual numbers of individuals on treatment were derived from three scenarios: (1) continuation of countries' current policies of eligibility for ART, (2) universal adoption of aspects of the WHO 2013 eligibility guidelines, and (3) expanded eligibility as per the WHO 2015 guidelines and meeting the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS "90-90-90" ART targets. We modeled uncertainty in the annual resource requirements for antiretroviral drugs, laboratory tests, and facility-level personnel and overhead. We estimate that 25.7 (95% CI 25.5, 26.0) million adults and 1.57 (95% CI 1.55, 1.60) million children could receive ART by 2020 if countries maintain current eligibility plans and increase coverage based on historical rates, which may be ambitious. If countries uniformly adopt aspects of the WHO 2013 guidelines, 26.5 (95% CI 26.0 27.0) million adults and 1.53 (95% CI 1.52, 1.55) million children could be on ART by 2020. Under the 90-90-90 scenario, 30.4 (95% CI 30.1, 30.7) million adults and 1.68 (95% CI 1.63, 1.73) million children could receive treatment by 2020. The facility-level financial resources needed for scaling up ART in these countries from 2015 to 2020 are estimated to be US$45.8 (95% CI 45.4, 46.2) billion under the current scenario, US$48.7 (95% CI 47.8, 49.6) billion under the WHO 2013 scenario, and US$52.5 (95% CI 51.4, 53.6) billion under the 90-90-90 scenario. After projecting recent external and domestic funding trends, the estimated 6-y financing gap ranges from US$19.8 billion to US$25.0 billion, depending on the costing scenario and the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief contribution level, with the gap for ART commodities alone ranging from US$14.0 to US$16.8 billion. The study is limited by excluding above-facility and other costs essential to ART service delivery and by the availability and quality of country- and region-specific data.

CONCLUSIONS

The projected number of people receiving ART across three scenarios suggests that countries are unlikely to meet the 90-90-90 treatment target (81% of people living with HIV on ART by 2020) unless they adopt a test-and-offer approach and increase ART coverage. Our results suggest that future resource needs for ART scale-up are smaller than stated elsewhere but still significantly threaten the sustainability of the global HIV response without additional resource mobilization from domestic or innovative financing sources or efficiency gains. As the world moves towards adopting the WHO 2015 guidelines, advances in technology, including the introduction of lower-cost, highly effective antiretroviral regimens, whose value are assessed here, may prove to be "game changers" that allow more people to be on ART with the resources available.

Survival and determinants of mortality in adult HIV/Aids patients initiating antiretroviral therapy in Somali Region, Eastern Ethiopia

INTRODUCTION

Studies have shown high initial mortality in Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) programs from resource-limited settings. However, there is dearth of evidence on treatment outcomes and associated determinant factors in public hospitals. Therefore, the objective of this study is to assess survival and identify predictors of death in adult HIV-infected patients initiating ART at a public hospital in Eastern Ethiopia.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted by reviewing baseline and follow-up records of patients who started ART between December 1, 2007 and December 31, 2011 at Kharamara hospital. Time to death was the main outcome measure. Kaplan-Meier models were used to estimate mortality and Cox proportional hazards models to identify predictors of mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 784 patients (58.4% females) were followed for a median of 60 months. There were 87 (11.1%) deaths yielding an overall mortality rate of 5.15/100 PYO (95% CI: 4.73-6.37). The estimated mortality was 8.4%, 9.8%, 11.3%, 12.7% and 14.1% at 6, 12, 24, 36 and 48 months respectively. The independent predictors of death were single marital status (AHR: 2.31; 95%CI: 1.18-4.50), a bedridden functional status (AHR: 5.91; 95%CI: 2.87-12.16), advanced WHO stage (AHR: 7.36; 95%CI: 3.17-17.12), BMI < 18.5 Kg/m2 (AHR: 2.20; 95%CI: 1.18-4.09), CD4 count < 50 cells/µL (AHR: 2.70; 95%CI: 1.26-5.80), severe anemia (AHR: 4.57; 95%CI: 2.30-9.10), and TB co-infection (AHR: 2.30; 95%CI: 1.28-4.11).

CONCLUSION

Improved survival was observed in patients taking ART in Somali region of Ethiopia. The risk for death was higher in patients with advanced WHO stage, low CD4 count, low Hgb, low BMI, and concomitant TB infection. Intensive case management is recommended for patients with the prognostic factors. Optimal immunologic and weight recoveries in the first 6 months suggest increased effort to retain patients in care at this period.

Gender Differences in Adherence and Response to Antiretroviral Treatment in the Stratall Trial in Rural District Hospitals in Cameroon

BACKGROUND

Evidence of gender differences in antiretroviral treatment (ART) outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa is conflicting. Our objective was to assess gender differences in (1) adherence to ART and (2) virologic failure, immune reconstitution, mortality, and disease progression adjusting for adherence.

METHODS

Cohort study among 459 ART-naive patients followed up 24 months after initiation in 2006-2010 in 9 rural district hospitals. Adherence to ART was assessed using (1) a validated tool based on multiple patient self-reports and (2) antiretroviral plasma concentrations. The associations between gender and the outcomes were assessed using multivariate mixed models or accelerated time failure models.

RESULTS

One hundred thirty-five patients (29.4%) were men. At baseline, men were older, had higher body mass index and hemoglobin level, and received more frequently efavirenz than women. Gender was not associated with self-reported adherence (P = 0.872, 0.169, and 0.867 for moderate adherence, low adherence, and treatment interruption, respectively) or with antiretroviral plasma concentrations (P = 0.549 for nevirapine/efavirenz). In contrast, male gender was associated with virologic failure [odds ratio: 2.18, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.31 to 3.62, P = 0.003], lower immunologic reconstitution (coefficient: -58.7 at month 24, 95% CI: -100.8 to -16.6, P = 0.006), and faster progression to death (time ratio: 0.30, 95% CI: 0.12 to 0.78, P = 0.014) and/or to World Health Organization stage 4 event (time ratio: 0.27, 95% CI: 0.09 to 0.79, P = 0.017).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides important evidence that African men are more vulnerable to ART failure than women and that the male vulnerability extends beyond adherence issues. Additional studies are needed to determine the causes for this vulnerability to optimize HIV care. However, personalized adherence support remains crucial.

Implementation of Point-of-Care Diagnostics Leads to Variable Uptake of Syphilis, Anemia and CD4+ T-Cell Count Testing in Rural Maternal and Child Health Clinics

INTRODUCTION

Anemia, syphilis and HIV are high burden diseases among pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa. A quasi-experimental study was conducted in four health facilities in Southern Mozambique to evaluate the effect of point-of-care technologies for hemoglobin quantification, syphilis testing and CD4+ T-cell enumeration performed within maternal and child health services on testing and treatment coverage, and assessing acceptability by health workers.

METHODS

Demographic and testing data on women attending first antenatal care services were extracted from existing records, before (2011; n = 865) and after (2012; n = 808) introduction of point-of-care testing. Study outcomes per health facility were compared using z-tests (categorical variables) and Wilcoxon rank-sum test (continuous variables), while inverse variance weights were used to adjust for possible cluster effects in the pooled analysis. A structured acceptability-assessment interview was conducted with health workers before (n = 22) and after (n = 19).

RESULTS

After implementation of point-of-care testing, there was no significant change in uptake of overall hemoglobin screening (67.9% to 83.0%; p = 0.229), syphilis screening (80.8% to 87.0%; p = 0.282) and CD4+ T-cell testing (84.9% to 83.5%; p = 0.930). Initiation of antiretroviral therapy for treatment eligible women was similar in the weighted analysis before and after, with variability among the sites. Time from HIV diagnosis to treatment initiation decreased (median of 44 days to 17 days; p<0.0001). A generally good acceptability for point-of-care testing was seen among health workers.

CONCLUSIONS

Point-of-care CD4+ T-cell enumeration resulted in a decreased time to initiation of antiretroviral therapy among treatment eligible women, without significant increase in testing coverage. Overall hemoglobin and syphilis screening increased. Despite the perception that point-of-care technologies increase access to health services, the variability in results indicate the potential for detrimental effects in some settings. Local context needs to be considered and services restructured to accommodate innovative technologies in order to improve service delivery to expectant mothers.

Temporal Trends in Patient Characteristics and Outcomes Among Children Enrolled in Mozambique's National Antiretroviral Therapy Program

BACKGROUND

During 2004-2009, >12,000 children (<15 years old) initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Mozambique. Nationally representative outcomes and temporal trends in outcomes were investigated.

METHODS

Rates of death, loss to follow-up (LTFU) and attrition (death or LTFU) were evaluated in a nationally representative sample of 1054 children, who initiated ART during 2004-2009 at 25 facilities randomly selected using probability-proportional-to-size sampling.

RESULTS

At ART initiation during 2004-2009, 50% were male; median age was 3.3 years; median CD4% was 13%; median CD4 count was 375 cells/μL; median weight-for-age Z score was -2.1. During 2004-2009, median time from HIV diagnosis to care initiation declined from 33 to 0 days (P = 0.001); median time from care to ART declined from 93 to 62 days (P = 0.004); the percentage aged <2 at ART initiation increased from 16% to 48% (P = 0.021); the percentage of patients with prior tuberculosis declined from 50% to 10% (P = 0.009); and the percentage with prior lymphocytic interstitial pneumonia declined from 16% to 1% (P < 0.001). Over 2652 person-years of ART, 183 children became LTFU and 26 died. Twelve-month attrition was 11% overall but increased from 3% to 22% during 2004-2009, mainly because of increases in 12-month LTFU (from 3% to 18%).

CONCLUSION

Declines in the prevalence of markers of advanced HIV disease at ART initiation probably reflect increasing ART access. However, 12-month LTFU increased during program expansion, and this negated any program improvements in outcomes that might have resulted from earlier ART initiation.

Implementation and Operational Research: Evaluation of Swaziland's Hub-and-Spoke Model for Decentralizing Access to Antiretroviral Therapy Services

BACKGROUND

In 2007, Swaziland initiated a hub-and-spoke model for decentralizing antiretroviral therapy (ART) access. Decentralization was facilitated through (1) down-referral of stable ART patients from overburdened central facilities (hubs) to primary health care clinics (spokes) and (2) ART initiation at spokes (spoke initiation).

METHODS

We conducted a nationally representative retrospective cohort study among adult ART enrollees during 2004-2010 to assess the effect of down-referral and spoke-initiation on rates of loss to follow-up (LTFU), death, and attrition (death or LTFU). Sixteen of 31 hubs were randomly selected using probability-proportional-to-size sampling. Seven selected facilities had initiated the hub-and-spoke model by study start. At these facilities, 1149 of 24,782 hub-initiated and maintained and 878 of 7722 down-referred or spoke-initiated patient records were randomly selected and analyzed. At the 9 hub-only facilities, 483 of 6638 records were randomly selected and analyzed. Multivariable proportional hazards regression was used to assess effect of down-referral (a time-varying covariate) and spoke-initiation on outcomes.

RESULTS

At ART initiation, median age was 35, 65% were female, and median CD4 count was 147 cells per microliter. Controlling for known confounders, down-referral was strongly protective against LTFU [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) 0.38; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.29 to 0.50] and attrition (AHR = 0.50; 95% CI: 0.34 to 0.76) but not mortality. Compared with hub-initiated and maintained patients, spoke-initiated patients had lower LTFU (AHR 0.59; 95% CI: 0.45 to 0.77) and attrition rates (AHR 0.60; 95% CI: 0.47 to 0.77), but not mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Down-referral and spoke-initiation within a hub-and-spoke ART decentralization model were protective against LTFU and overall attrition and could facilitate future ART program expansion.

Trends in Prevalence of HIV-1 Drug Resistance in a Public Clinic in Maputo, Mozambique

Background

An observational study was conducted in Maputo, Mozambique, to investigate trends in prevalence of HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) in antiretroviral (ART) naïve subjects initiating highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART).

Methodology/Principal Findings

To evaluate the pattern of drug resistance mutations (DRMs) found in adults on ART failing first-line HAART [patients with detectable viral load (VL)]. Untreated subjects [Group 1 (G1; n=99)] and 274 treated subjects with variable length of exposure to ARV´s [6–12 months, Group 2 (G2;n=93); 12-24 months, Group 3 (G3;n=81); >24 months (G4;n=100)] were enrolled. Virological and immunological failure (VF and IF) were measured based on viral load (VL) and T lymphocyte CD4+ cells (TCD4+) count and genotypic resistance was also performed. Major subtype found was C (untreated: n=66, 97,06%; treated: n=36, 91.7%). Maximum virological suppression was observed in G3, and significant differences intragroup were observed between VF and IF in G4 (p=0.022). Intergroup differences were observed between G3 and G4 for VF (p=0.023) and IF between G2 and G4 (p=0.0018). Viral suppression (<50 copies/ml) ranged from 84.9% to 90.1%, and concordant VL and DRM ranged from 25% to 57%. WHO cut-off for determining VF as given by 2010 guidelines (>5000 copies/ml) identified 50% of subjects carrying DRM compared to 100% when lower VL cut-off was used (<50 copies/ml). Length of exposure to ARVs was directly proportional to the complexity of DRM patterns. In Mozambique, VL suppression was achieved in 76% of individuals after 24 months on HAART. This is in agreement with WHO target for HIVDR prevention target (70%).

Conclusions

We demonstrated that the best way to determine therapeutic failure is VL compared to CD4 counts. The rationalized use of VL testing is needed to ensure timely detection of treatment failures preventing the occurrence of TDR and new infections.

Monitoring and switching of first-line antiretroviral therapy in adult treatment cohorts in sub-Saharan Africa: collaborative analysis

BACKGROUND

HIV-1 viral load testing is recommended to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) but is not universally available. The aim of our study was to assess monitoring of first-line ART and switching to second-line ART in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

We did a collaborative analysis of cohort studies from 16 countries in east Africa, southern Africa, and west Africa that participate in the international epidemiological database to evaluate AIDS (IeDEA). We included adults infected with HIV-1 who started combination ART between January, 2004, and January, 2013. We defined switching of ART as a change from a non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based regimen to one including a protease inhibitor, with adjustment of one or more nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs). Virological and immunological failures were defined according to WHO criteria. We calculated cumulative probabilities of switching and hazard ratios with 95% CIs comparing routine viral load monitoring, targeted viral load monitoring, CD4 monitoring, and clinical monitoring, adjusting for programme and individual characteristics.

FINDINGS

Of 297,825 eligible patients, 10,352 (3%) switched to second-line ART during 782 ,412 person-years of follow-up. Compared with CD4 monitoring, hazard ratios for switching were 3·15 (95% CI 2·92-3·40) for routine viral load monitoring, 1·21 (1·13-1·30) for targeted viral load monitoring, and 0·49 (0·43-0·56) for clinical monitoring. Of 6450 patients with confirmed virological failure, 58·0% (95% CI 56·5-59·6) switched by 2 years, and of 15,892 patients with confirmed immunological failure, 19·3% (18·5-20·0) switched by 2 years. Of 10,352 patients who switched, evidence of treatment failure based on one CD4 count or viral load measurement ranged from 86 (32%) of 268 patients with clinical monitoring to 3754 (84%) of 4452 with targeted viral load monitoring. Median CD4 counts at switching were 215 cells per μL (IQR 117-335) with routine viral load monitoring, but were lower with other types of monitoring (range 114-133 cells per μL).

INTERPRETATION

Overall, few patients switched to second-line ART and switching happened late in the absence of routine viral load monitoring. Switching was more common and happened earlier after initiation of ART with targeted or routine viral load testing.

FUNDING

National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Swiss National Science Foundation.

Assessment of the impact of cotrimoxazole prophylaxis on key outcomes among HIV-infected adults in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Cotrimoxazole (CTX) prophylaxis is among the key interventions provided to HIV-infected individuals in resource-limited settings. We conducted a systematic review of the available evidence.

METHODS

MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, CINAHL, SOCA, and African Index Medicus (AIM) were used to identify articles relevant to the CTX prophylaxis intervention from 1995 to 2014. Included articles addressed impact of CTX prophylaxis on the outcomes of mortality, morbidity, retention in care, quality of life, and/or prevention of ongoing HIV transmission. We rated the quality of evidence in individual articles and assessed the overall quality of the body of evidence, the expected impact, and the cost effectiveness (CE) for each outcome.

RESULTS

Of the initial 1418 identified articles, 42 met all inclusion criteria. These included 9 randomized controlled trials, 26 observational studies, 2 systematic reviews with meta-analysis, 1 other systematic review, and 4 CE studies. The overall quality of evidence was rated as "good" and the expected impact "high" for both mortality and morbidity. The overall quality of evidence from the 4 studies addressing retention in care was rated as "poor," and the expected impact on retention was rated as "uncertain." The 4 assessed CE studies showed that provision of CTX prophylaxis is cost effective and sometimes cost saving. No studies addressed impact on quality of life or HIV transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

CTX prophylaxis is a cost-effective intervention with expected high impact on morbidity and mortality reduction in HIV-infected adults in resource-limited settings. Benefits are seen in both pre-antiretroviral therapy and antiretroviral therapy populations.

Magnitude and Predictors of Anti-Retroviral Treatment (ART) Failure in Private Health Facilities in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

The public health approach to antiretroviral treatment management encourages the public private partnership in resource limited countries like Ethiopia. As a result, some private health facilities are accredited to provide antiretroviral treatment free services. Evidence on magnitude and predictors of treatment failure are crucial for timely actions. However, there are few studies in this regard.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the magnitude and predictors of ART failure in private health facilities in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

METHODS

The study followed retrospective cohort design, with 525 adult antiretroviral treatment clients who started the treatment since October 2009 and have at least six months follow up until December 31, 2013. Kaplan Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazard model were used for analysis.

RESULTS

Treatment failure, using the three WHO antiretroviral treatment failure criteria, was 19.8%. The immunologic, clinical, and virologic failures were 15%, 6.3% and 1.3% respectively. The mean and median survival times in months were 41.17 with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) [39.69, 42.64] and 49.00, 95% CI [47.71, 50.29] respectively. The multivariate cox regression analysis showed years since HIV diagnosis (Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR)=13.87 with 95% CI [6.65, 28.92]), disclosure (AHR=0.59, 95% CI [0.36, 0.96]), WHO stage at start (AHR=1.84, 95% CI [1.16, 2.93]), weight at baseline (AHR=0.58, 95% CI [0.38, 0.89]), and functionality status at last visit (AHR=2.57, 95% CI [1.59, 4.15]) were independent predictors of treatment failure.

CONCLUSION

The study showed that the treatment failure is high among the study subjects. The predictors for antiretroviral treatment failure were years since HIV diagnosis, weight at start, WHO stage at start, status at last visit and disclosure.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Facilities need to monitor antiretroviral treatment clients to avoid disease progression and drug resistance.

Retention and risk factors for loss to follow-up of female and male sex workers on antiretroviral treatment in Ivory Coast: a retrospective cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV-infected sex workers is an important HIV prevention strategy. However, sex workers may have additional challenges for retention in ART care. The objectives of this study were to assess retention of sex workers on ART in a routine setting in Ivory Coast and identify risk factors for loss to follow-up (LTFU).

METHODS

The design was a retrospective cohort study. An analysis of clinic files was conducted in 2 sites providing ART services to sex workers in Ivory Coast. Demographic, behavior, and clinical data of female and male sex workers on ART were abstracted onto a standardized anonymous data collection form. Data collection took place between May 11 and 28, 2010.

RESULTS

A total of 376 female and 38 male sex workers were included in the analysis. The retention probability was 75% at 6 months, 68% at 12 months, 55% at 24 months, and 47% at 36 months. Attrition was mainly because of LTFU. Factors significantly associated with LTFU in bivariate analysis were lower schooling level, later calendar year of starting ART, and not receiving initial adherence counseling. Later year of starting ART and not receiving adherence counseling at ART initiation remained significantly associated with LTFU in a multivariate Cox regression model.

CONCLUSIONS

To improve the retention of sex workers on ART, there is a need for more in-depth investigation of the role of pre-ART counseling and the increasing rates of LTFU with each calendar year.

Co-trimoxazole prophylaxis in adults, including pregnant women, with HIV: a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Co-trimoxazole prophylaxis is used to reduce morbidity and mortality in people with HIV. We systematically reviewed three topics related to co-trimoxazole prophylaxis to update WHO guidelines: initiation, discontinuation, and dose.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Embase, WHO Global Index Medicus, and clinical trial registries in November, 2013, for randomised controlled trials and observational studies including co-trimoxazole prophylaxis and a comparator group. Studies were eligible if they reported death, WHO clinical stage 3 or 4 events, admittance to hospital, severe bacterial infections, tuberculosis, pneumonia, diarrhoea, malaria, or treatment-limiting adverse events. Infant mortality, low birthweight, and placental malaria were additional outcomes for the comparison of co-trimoxazole prophylaxis and intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in pregnant women (IPTp). We compared a dose of 480 mg co-trimoxazole once a day with one of 960 mg co-trimoxazole once a day. We used a 10% margin for non-inferiority and equivalence analyses. We used random-effects models for all meta-analyses. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42014007163.

FINDINGS

19 articles, published from 1995 to 2014 and including 35 328 participants, met the inclusion criteria. Co-trimoxazole prophylaxis reduced rates of death (hazard ratio [HR] 0·40, 95% CI 0·26-0·64) when started at CD4 counts of 350 cells per μL or lower with antiretroviral therapy (ART) worldwide. Co-trimoxazole prophylaxis started at higher than 350 cells per μL without ART reduced rates of death (0·50, 0·30-0·83) and malaria (0·25, 0·10-0·57) in Africa. Co-trimoxazole prophylaxis was non-inferior to IPTp with respect to infant mortality (risk difference [RD] -0·05, 95% CI -0·12 to 0·02), low birthweight (0·00, -0·07 to 0·07), and placental malaria (0·00, -0·10 to 0·10). Co-trimoxazole prophylaxis continuation after ART-induced recovery with CD4 counts higher than 350 cells per μL reduced admittances to hospital (HR 0·42, 95% CI 0·22-0·80), pneumonia (0·73, 0·61-0·88), malaria (0·03, 0·01-0·10), and diarrhoea (0·61, 0·48-0·78) in Africa. A dose of 480 mg co-trimoxazole prophylaxis once a day did not reduce treatment-limiting adverse events compared with 960 mg once a day (RD -0·07, 95% CI -0·52 to 0·39).

INTERPRETATION

Co-trimoxazole prophylaxis should be given with ART in people with CD4 counts of 350 cells per μL or lower in low-income and middle-income countries. Co-trimoxazole prophylaxis should be provided irrespective of CD4 count in settings with a high burden of infectious diseases. Pregnant women with HIV in Africa should use co-trimoxazole rather than IPTp to prevent malaria complications in infants. Further research is needed to inform dose optimisation and co-trimoxazole use in the context of expanded ART in different epidemiological settings.

FUNDING

None.

Two-year death and loss to follow-up outcomes by source of referral to HIV care for HIV-infected patients initiating antiretroviral therapy in rural Mozambique

We studied patient outcomes by type of referral site following 2 years of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) during scale-up from June 2006 to July 2011 in Mozambique's rural Zambézia Province. Loss to follow-up (LTFU) was defined as no contact within 60 days after scheduled medication pickup. Endpoints included LTFU, mortality, and combined mortality/LTFU; we used Kaplan-Meier and cumulative incidence estimates. The referral site was the source of HIV testing. We modeled 2-year outcomes using Cox regression stratified by district, adjusting for sociodemographics and health status. Of 7,615 HIV-infected patients ≥15 years starting cART, 61% were female and the median age was 30 years. Two-year LTFU was 38.1% (95% CI: 36.9-39.3%) and mortality was 14.2% (95% CI 13.2-15.2%). Patients arrived from voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) sites (51%), general outpatient clinics (21%), antenatal care (8%), inpatient care (3%), HIV/tuberculosis/laboratory facilities (<4%), or other sources of referral (14%). Compared with VCT, patients referred from inpatient, tuberculosis, or antenatal care had higher hazards of LTFU. Adjusted hazard ratios (AHR; 95% CI) for 2-year mortality by referral site (VCT as referent) were inpatient 1.87 (1.36-2.58), outpatient 1.44 (1.11-1.85), and antenatal care 0.69 (0.43-1.11) and for mortality/LTFU were inpatient 1.60 (1.34-1.91), outpatient 1.17 (1.02-1.33), tuberculosis care 1.38 (1.08-1.75), and antenatal care 1.24 (1.06-1.44). That source of referral was associated with mortality/LTFU after adjusting for patient characteristics at cART initiation suggests that (1) additional unmeasured factors are influential, and (2) retention programs may benefit from targeting patient populations based on source of referral with focused counseling and/or social support.

Mortality among adults transferred and lost to follow-up from antiretroviral therapy programmes in South Africa: a multicenter cohort study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Little is known about outcomes after transfer out (TFO) and loss to follow-up (LTF) and how differential outcomes might bias mortality estimates, as analyses generally censor or exclude TFOs/LTF. Using data linked to the National Population Register, we explored mortality among TFO and LTF patients compared with patients who were retained and investigated how linkage impacted on mortality estimates.

METHODS

A cohort analysis of routine data on adults with civil identification numbers starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) 2004-2009 in 4 large South African ART cohorts. The number, proportion, timing, and mortality of TFOs and LTF were reported. Mortality was compared using Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox's proportional hazards, and competing risks regression.

RESULTS

Before linkage, 1207 patients (6%) had died, 2624 (13%) were LTF, 1067 (5%) were TFO and 14,583 (75%) were retained. Compared with retained, mortality risk was 3 times higher among TFO patients [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR), 3.11; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.42 to 3.99] and 20 times higher among LTF patients (aHR, 22.03; 95% CI: 20.05 to 24.21). Excluding early deaths after TFO or LTF, the risk was comparable among TFOs and retained (aHR, 0.75; 95% CI: 0.54 to 1.03) and higher among LTF (aHR, 2.85; 95% CI: 2.43 to 3.33). After linkage, corrected mortality was higher than site-reported mortality. Censoring did not, however, lead to substantial underestimation of mortality among TFOs.

CONCLUSIONS

Although TFO and LTF predicted mortality, the lower incidence of TFO and subsequent death compared with LTF meant that censoring TFOs did not bias mortality estimates. Future cohort analyses should explicitly consider proportions of TFO/LTF and mortality event rates.

Do increasing rates of loss to follow-up in antiretroviral treatment programs imply deteriorating patient retention?

In several studies of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs for persons with human immunodeficiency virus infection, investigators have reported that there has been a higher rate of loss to follow-up (LTFU) among patients initiating ART in recent years than among patients who initiated ART during earlier time periods. This finding is frequently interpreted as reflecting deterioration of patient retention in the face of increasing patient loads. However, in this paper we demonstrate by simulation that transient gaps in follow-up could lead to bias when standard survival analysis techniques are applied. We created a simulated cohort of patients with different dates of ART initiation. Rates of ART interruption, ART resumption, and mortality were assumed to remain constant over time, but when we applied a standard definition of LTFU, the simulated probability of being classified LTFU at a particular ART duration was substantially higher in recently enrolled cohorts. This suggests that much of the apparent trend towards increased LTFU may be attributed to bias caused by transient interruptions in care. Alternative statistical techniques need to be used when analyzing predictors of LTFU--for example, using "prospective" definitions of LTFU in place of "retrospective" definitions. Similar considerations may apply when analyzing predictors of LTFU from treatment programs for other chronic diseases.

Temporal trends in mortality and loss to follow-up among children enrolled in Côte d'Ivoire's national antiretroviral therapy program

BACKGROUND

During 2004-2008, >2000 children (<15 years old) initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Côte d'Ivoire. Nationally representative outcomes, temporal trends in outcomes during 2004-2008 and site-level outcome determinants have not been investigated.

METHODS

Incidence rates of death, loss to follow-up (LTFU) and attrition (death or LTFU) were evaluated in a nationally representative, retrospective cohort study among 2,110 children, who initiated ART at 29 facilities in Côte d'Ivoire during 2004-2008.

RESULTS

At ART initiation, 54% were male, 1% was HIV-2-infected and median age was 5.1 years. Median CD4% was 11%, and 61% had weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ) ≤-2. Vaccination completion was documented for 9% of children. Eleven of 29 facilities had an integrated nutrition program. Over 4585 person-years of ART, 237 children died and 427 became LTFU. Twelve-month attrition was 22% overall, but increased from 4% to 34% during 2004-2008, due to increases in 12-month mortality (from 3-11%) and 12-month LTFU (from 2% to 23%). In adjusted analysis, compared with enrollees in 2004, enrollees in 2008 had nearly 4-fold higher mortality and 8-fold higher LTFU. World Health Organization stage III/IV, CD4% <10%, WAZ ≤ 2 and hemoglobin <8 g/dL, were predictive of mortality. Incomplete vaccination was predictive of mortality and LTFU. Facilities with nutrition programs had lower LTFU and mortality rates. Clinics reporting nurse dissatisfaction with working conditions had higher LTFU rates.

CONCLUSION

Investigation of causes of increasing mortality and LTFU is needed. Ensuring earlier ART initiation, vaccination completion, scale-up of site-level nutrition programs and nurse work-environment satisfaction, could improve pediatric ART program outcomes.

Improving rates of cotrimoxazole prophylaxis in resource-limited settings: implementation of a quality improvement approach

OBJECTIVE

To demonstrate the effectiveness of quality improvement methods to monitor and improve administration of cotrimoxazole (CTX) prophylaxis to improve health outcomes among adults living with HIV/AIDS in low resource countries.

DESIGN

Program evaluation.

SETTING

HIV/AIDS health care facilities in Uganda, Mozambique, Namibia and Haiti.

INTERVENTION

Performance measures based on national guidelines are developed in each country. These may include CD4 monitoring, ART adherence and uptake of CTX prophylaxis. CTX prophylaxis is routinely selected, because it has been shown to reduce HIV-related morbidity and mortality. Patient records are sampled using a standard statistical table to achieve a minimum confidence interval of 90% with a spread of ±8% in participating clinics. If an electronic medical record is available, all patients are reviewed. Routine review of performance measures, usually every 6 months, is conducted to identify gaps in care. Improvement interventions are developed and implemented at health facilities, informed by performance results, and local/national public health priorities.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Median clinic rates of CTX prophylaxis.

RESULTS

Median performance rates of CTX prophylaxis generally improved for adult HIV+ patients between 2006 and 2013 across countries, with median clinic rates higher than baseline at follow-up in 16 of 18 groups of clinics implementing CTX -focused improvement projects.

CONCLUSIONS

Quality management offers a data-driven method to improve the quality of HIV care in low resource countries. Application of improvement principles has been shown to be effective to increase the rates of CTX prophylaxis in national HIV programs in multiple countries.

Poor clinical outcomes for HIV infected children on antiretroviral therapy in rural Mozambique: need for program quality improvement and community engagement

INTRODUCTION

Residents of Zambézia Province, Mozambique live from rural subsistence farming and fishing. The 2009 provincial HIV prevalence for adults 15-49 years was 12.6%, higher among women (15.3%) than men (8.9%). We reviewed clinical data to assess outcomes for HIV-infected children on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in a highly resource-limited setting.

METHODS

We studied rates of 2-year mortality and loss to follow-up (LTFU) for children <15 years of age initiating cART between June 2006-July 2011 in 10 rural districts. National guidelines define LTFU as >60 days following last-scheduled medication pickup. Kaplan-Meier estimates to compute mortality assumed non-informative censoring. Cumulative LTFU incidence calculations treated death as a competing risk.

RESULTS

Of 753 children, 29.0% (95% CI: 24.5, 33.2) were confirmed dead by 2 years and 39.0% (95% CI: 34.8, 42.9) were LTFU with unknown clinical outcomes. The cohort mortality rate was 8.4% (95% CI: 6.3, 10.4) after 90 days on cART and 19.2% (95% CI: 16.0, 22.3) after 365 days. Higher hemoglobin at cART initiation was associated with being alive and on cART at 2 years (alive: 9.3 g/dL vs. dead or LTFU: 8.3-8.4 g/dL, p<0.01). Cotrimoxazole use within 90 days of ART initiation was associated with improved 2-year outcomes Treatment was initiated late (WHO stage III/IV) among 48% of the children with WHO stage recorded in their records. Marked heterogeneity in outcomes by district was noted (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

We found poor clinical and programmatic outcomes among children taking cART in rural Mozambique. Expanded testing, early infant diagnosis, counseling/support services, case finding, and outreach are insufficiently implemented. Our quality improvement efforts seek to better link pregnancy and HIV services, expand coverage and timeliness of infant diagnosis and treatment, and increase follow-up and adherence.

Patient attrition from the HIV antiretroviral therapy program at two hospitals in Haiti

OBJECTIVE

To identify factors associated with antiretroviral therapy (ART) attrition among patients initiating therapy in 2005-2011 at two large, public-sector department-level hospitals, and to inform interventions to improve ART retention.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study used data from the iSanté electronic medical record (EMR) system. The study characterized ART attrition levels and explored the patient demographic, clinical, temporal, and service utilization factors associated with ART attrition, using time-to-event analysis methods.

RESULTS

Among the 2 023 patients in the study, ART attrition on average was 17.0 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval (CI): 15.8-18.3). In adjusted analyses, risk of ART attrition was up to 89% higher for patients living in distant communes compared to patients living in the same commune as the hospital (hazard ratio: 1.89, 95%CI: 1.54-2.33; P < 0.001). Hospital site, earlier year of ART start, spending less time enrolled in HIV care prior to ART initiation, receiving a non-standard ART regimen, lacking counseling prior to ART initiation, and having a higher body mass index were also associated with attrition risk.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest quality improvement interventions at the two hospitals, including: enhanced retention support and transportation subsidies for patients accessing care from remote areas; counseling for all patients prior to ART initiation; timely outreach to patients who miss ART pick-ups; "bridging services" for patients transferring care to alternative facilities; routine screening for anticipated interruptions in future ART pick-ups; and medical case review for patients placed on non-standard ART regimens. The findings are also relevant for policymaking on decentralization of ART services in Haiti.

Impact and programmatic implications of routine viral load monitoring in Swaziland

OBJECTIVE

To assess the programmatic quality (coverage of testing, counseling, and retesting), cost, and outcomes (viral suppression, treatment decisions) of routine viral load (VL) monitoring in Swaziland.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study of patients undergoing routine VL monitoring in Swaziland (October 1, 2012 to March 31, 2013).

RESULTS

Of 5563 patients eligible for routine VL testing monitoring in the period of study, an estimated 4767 patients (86%) underwent testing that year. Of 288 patients with detectable VL, 210 (73%) underwent enhanced adherence counseling and 202 (70%) had a follow-up VL within 6 months. Testing coverage was slightly lower in children, but coverage of retesting was similar between and age groups and sexes. Of those with a follow-up test, 126 (62%) showed viral suppression. The remaining 78 patients had World Health Organization-defined virologic failure; 41 (53%) were referred by the doctor for more adherence counseling, and 13 (15%) were changed to second-line therapy, equating to an estimated rate of 1.2 switches per 100 patient-years. Twenty-four patients (32%) were transferred out, lost to follow-up, or not reviewed by doctor. The "fully loaded" cost of VL monitoring was $35 per patient-year.

CONCLUSIONS

Achieving good quality VL monitoring is feasible and affordable in resource-limited settings, although close supervision is needed to ensure good coverage of testing and counseling. The low rate of switch to second-line therapy in patients with World Health Organization-defined virologic failure seems to reflect clinician suspicion of ongoing adherence problems. In our study, the main impact of routine VL monitoring was reinforcing adherence rather than increasing use of second-line therapy.

Temporal trends in treatment outcomes for HIV-1 and HIV-2-infected adults enrolled in Côte d'Ivoire's national antiretroviral therapy program

Background

In Côte d'Ivoire during 2004–2007, numbers of ART enrollees increased from <5,000 to 36,943. Trends in nationally representative ART program outcomes have not yet been reported.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We conducted a retrospective chart review to assess trends in patient characteristics and attrition [death or loss to follow-up (LTFU)] over time, among a nationally representative sample of 3,682 adults (≥15 years) initiating ART during 2004–2007 at 34 health facilities. Among ART enrollees during 2004–2007, median age was 36, the proportion female was 67%, the proportion HIV-2-infected or dually HIV-1&2 reactive was 5%, and median baseline CD4⁺ T-cell (CD4) count was 135 cells/µL. Comparing cohorts initiating ART in 2004 with cohorts initiating ART in 2007, median baseline weight declined from 55 kg to 52 kg (p = 0.008) and the proportion weighing <45 kg increased from 17% to 22% (p = 0.014). During 2004–2007, pharmacy-based estimates of the percentage of new ART enrollees ≥95% adherent to ART declined from 74% to 60% (p = 0.026), and twelve-month retention declined from 86% to 69%, due to increases in 12-month mortality from 2%–4% and LTFU from 12%–28%. In univariate analysis, year of ART initiation was associated with increasing rates of both LTFU and mortality. Controlling for baseline CD4, weight, adherence, and other risk factors, year of ART initiation was still strongly associated with LTFU but not mortality. In multivariate analysis, weight <45 kg and adherence <95% remained strong predictors of LTFU and mortality.

Conclusions

During 2004–2007, increasing prevalence among ART enrollees of measured mortality risk factors, including weight <45 kg and ART adherence <95%, might explain increases in mortality over time. However, the association between later calendar year and increasing LTFU is not explained by risk factors evaluated in this analysis. Undocumented transfers, political instability, and patient dissatisfaction with crowded facilities might explain increasing LTFU.