Cost-effectiveness of pharmacotherapy to reduce obesity

Healthcare utilization associated with obesity management in Ontario, Canada

This study aimed to describe the characteristics, healthcare resources utilized and costs incurred by adults receiving publicly funded obesity care in Ontario, Canada. People living with obesity who first visited Wharton Medical Clinic, a weight and diabetes management clinic in Ontario, between 2015 and 2018 were identified. Pseudoanonymized data were linked to administrative databases to understand healthcare utilization and costs borne by the public payer over 3 years. 6208 participants had linked data, 63.9% and 27.3% of whom remained followed one and two years after their first clinic visit, respectively. The cohort was 71.84% female with a mean (SD) age of 50.86 (13.28) years and BMI of 40.21 (7.06) kg/m2. Approximately 25% of participants were prescribed pharmacotherapy (liraglutide, orlistat, naltrexone/bupropion), 4% received psychological therapy and 2% had weight-loss surgery. Common obesity-related complications were hypertension (42.62%), musculoskeletal pain (35.20%) and dyslipidaemia (33.65%). Participants had 22.16 physician visits per person-year in year one, mostly to general practitioners and endocrinologists, which decreased to 17.38 visits per person-year by year three. Mean total costs (excluding privately covered prescriptions) per person-year decreased from $5227.25 (Canadian dollars) (SE: $0.97) to $4982.88 (SE: $2.16) over the same period. Participants were mostly female and presented with obesity-related complications. Although healthcare utilization and costs incurred by the cohort were high, both showed a decreasing trend over the follow-up period.

A cost comparison of GLP-1 receptor agonists and bariatric surgery: what is the break even point?

BACKGROUND

With the prevalence of obesity rising in the US, medical management is of increasing importance. Two popular options for the treatment of obesity are bariatric surgery (e.g. sleeve gastrectomy and Roux-en-Y gastric bypass) and the increasingly popular GLP-1 Receptor Agonists (GLP-1 s). This study examines the initial and long-term costs of GLP-1 s compared to bariatric surgery.

STUDY DESIGN

We compared average 2023 national retail prices for GLP-1 s to surgical cost estimates from 2015 adjusted for inflation. We then plotted the cumulative medication cost over time against the flat cost of each surgery, thus calculating "break-even points" (when medication costs equal surgery costs). The findings revealed a crucial insight, for some GLP-1 s like Saxenda and Wegovy, the high cost of ongoing use surpasses the cost of RYGB in less than a year and sleeve gastrectomy within nine months. Even the most affordable option, Byetta, becomes costlier than surgery after around 1.5 years.

RESULTS

This highlights the importance of looking beyond the initial financial investment when considering cost-effectiveness. Additionally, while not directly assessed, this study acknowledges that GLP-1 s take time to reach full effectiveness, potentially delaying weight loss while accumulating costs. Concerns also exist about weight regain after discontinuing the medication.

CONCLUSION

This study is limited by the real-world variation for individual treatment costs (e.g. insurance), a limited evaluation of long-term costs associated with either treatment modality and their co-morbidities, and the reality of patient preference providing subjective value to either modality. Overall, the study offers insights into the financial trade-offs between GLP-1 s and bariatric surgery.

Impact of the UK soft drinks industry levy on health and health inequalities in children and adolescents in England: An interrupted time series analysis and population health modelling study

BACKGROUND

The soft drinks industry levy (SDIL) in the United Kingdom has led to a significant reduction in household purchasing of sugar in drinks. In this study, we examined the potential medium- and long-term implications for health and health inequalities among children and adolescents in England.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a controlled interrupted time series analysis to measure the effects of the SDIL on the amount of sugar per household per week from soft drinks purchased, 19 months post implementation and by index of multiple deprivation (IMD) quintile in England. We modelled the effect of observed sugar reduction on body mass index (BMI), dental caries, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in children and adolescents (0 to 17 years) by IMD quintile over the first 10 years following announcement (March 2016) and implementation (April 2018) of the SDIL. Using a lifetable model, we simulated the potential long-term impact of these changes on life expectancy for the current birth cohort and, using regression models with results from the IMD-specific lifetable models, we calculated the impact of the SDIL on the slope index of inequality (SII) in life expectancy. The SDIL was found to have reduced sugar from purchased drinks in England by 15 g/household/week (95% confidence interval: -10.3 to -19.7). The model predicts these reductions in sugar will lead to 3,600 (95% uncertainty interval: 946 to 6,330) fewer dental caries and 64,100 (54,400 to 73,400) fewer children and adolescents classified as overweight or obese, in the first 10 years after implementation. The changes in sugar purchasing and predicted impacts on health are largest for children and adolescents in the most deprived areas (Q1: 11,000 QALYs [8,370 to 14,100] and Q2: 7,760 QALYs [5,730 to 9,970]), while children and adolescents in less deprived areas will likely experience much smaller simulated effects (Q3: -1,830 QALYs [-3,260 to -501], Q4: 652 QALYs [-336 to 1,680], Q5: 1,860 QALYs [929 to 2,890]). If the simulated effects of the SDIL are sustained over the life course, it is predicted there will be a small but significant reduction in slope index of inequality: 0.76% (95% uncertainty interval: -0.9 to -0.62) for females and 0.94% (-1.1 to -0.76) for males.

CONCLUSIONS

We predict that the SDIL will lead to medium-term reductions in dental caries and overweight/obesity, and long-term improvements in life expectancy, with the greatest benefits projected for children and adolescents from more deprived areas. This study provides evidence that the SDIL could narrow health inequalities for children and adolescents in England.

Pharmacoeconomic evaluation of anti-obesity drugs for chronic weight management: a systematic review of literature

Introduction

Pharmacological therapy is recommended as a second-line alternative to reverse obesity. Currently, five anti-obesity drugs (AODs) have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for chronic weight management. The aim of this paper is to investigate the pharmacoeconomic evaluation of AODs through a systematic review with a special focus on methodological considerations.

Methods

We searched the general and specific databases to identify the primary pharmacoeconomic evaluation of AODs.

Results

A total of 18 full-text articles and three conference abstracts were included in this review. Most of the economic assessments were still about Orlistat. And the observations we could make were consistent with the previous systematic review. A few studies were on the combined therapies (i.e. PHEN/TPM ER and NB ER) compared to different comparators, which could hardly lead to a generalized summary of the cost-effectiveness. Most recently, pharmacoeconomic evidence on the newest GLP 1 RA approved for the indication of obesity or obesity with at least one comorbidity emerged gradually. Modelling-based cost-utility analysis is the major type of assessment method. In the modelling studies, a manageable number of the key health states and the state transitions were structured to capture the disease progression. In particular, the principal structure of the decision model adopted in the three studies on the newly approved drug was nearly the same, which enables more in-depth comparisons and generalizations of the findings.

Conclusion

This study provided an up-to-date overview of the strengths and areas for improvement in the methodological design of the pharmacoeconomic evaluation of the licensed drugs for chronic weight management. Future modelling evaluations would benefit from a better understanding of the long-term weight loss effects of the current therapeutic options and the weight rebound process after the discontinuation of treatment.

Systematic review registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42022302648, identifier CRD42022302648.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of five anti-obesity medications from a US payer's perspective

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

To determine the cost-effectiveness of anti-obesity medications (AOM): tirzepatide, semaglutide, liraglutide, phentermine plus topiramate (PpT), and naltrexone plus bupropion (NpB).

METHODS AND RESULTS

From a U.S. perspective we developed a Markov model to simulate weight change over a 40-year time horizon using results from clinical studies. According to the body mass index (BMI), cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and mortality risk were the health states considered in the model, being mutually exclusive. Costs of AOM, adverse events, cardiovascular events, and diabetes were included. We applied a 3% per-year discount rate and calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses incorporated uncertainty in input parameters. A deterministic analysis was conducted to determine the robustness of the model. The model included a cohort of 78.2% females with a mean age of 45 years and BMI of 37.1 (SD 4.9) for females and 36.8 (SD 4.9) for males. NpB and PpT were the least costly medications and, all medications differed no more than 0.5 QALYs. Tirzepatide ICER was $355,616 per QALY. Liraglutide and semaglutide options were dominated by PpT.

CONCLUSION

Compared to other AOM, PpT was lowest cost treatment with nearly identical QALYs with other agents.

A Systematic Review of the Evidence for Non-surgical Weight Management for Adults with Severe Obesity: What is Cost Effective and What are the Implications for the Design of Health Services?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Severe obesity (BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2) increases premature mortality and reduces quality-of-life. Obesity-related disease (ORD) places substantial burden on health systems. This review summarises the cost-effectiveness evidence for non-surgical weight management programmes (WMPs) for adults with severe obesity.

RECENT FINDINGS

Whilst evidence shows bariatric surgery is often cost-effective, there is no clear consensus on the cost-effectiveness of non-surgical WMPs. Thirty-two studies were included. Most were short-term evaluations that did not capture the long-term costs and consequences of ORD. Decision models often included only a subset of relevant ORDs, and made varying assumptions about the rate of weight regain over time. A lack of sensitivity analyses limited interpretation of results. Heterogeneity in the definition of WMPs and usual care prevents formal evidence synthesis. We were unable to establish the most cost-effective WMPs. Addressing these limitations may help future studies provide more robust cost-effectiveness evidence for decision makers.

Estimating the benefits of obesity prevention on productivity: an Australian perspective

Background/objectives

Obesity poses one of the biggest public health challenges globally. In addition to the high costs of obesity to the healthcare system, obesity also impacts work productivity. We aimed to estimate the benefits of preventing obesity in terms of years of life, productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs) and associated costs over 10 years.

Subjects/methods

Dynamic life table models were constructed to estimate years of life and PALYs saved if all new cases of obesity were prevented among Australians aged 20–69 years from 2021 to 2030. Life tables were sex specific and the population was classified into normal weight, overweight and obese. The model simulation was first undertaken assuming currently observed age-specific incidences of obesity, and then repeated assuming all new cases of obesity were reduced by 2 and 5%. The differences in outcomes (years of life, PALYs, and costs) between the two modelled outputs reflected the potential benefits that could be achieved through obesity prevention. All outcomes were discounted by 5% per annum.

Results

Over the next 10 years, 132 million years of life and 81 million PALYs would be lived by Australians aged 20–69 years, contributing AU$17.0 trillion to the Australian economy in terms of GDP. A 5% reduction in new cases of obesity led to a gain of 663 years of life and 1229 PALYs, equivalent to AU$262 million in GDP.

Conclusions

Prevention of obesity is projected to result in substantial economic gains due to improved health and productivity. This further emphasises the need for public health prevention strategies to reduce this growing epidemic.

Cost effectiveness of bariatric surgery in patients with obesity related comorbidities: A retrospective study

Background and Aim:

Bariatric surgery has been reported to be an effective but expensive method for obesity management. This study aimed to determine the economic benefit for patients who underwent bariatric surgery.

Methodology:

We conducted a retrospective chart review of patients who underwent bariatric surgery and was on medications for obesity-related comorbidities at the Obesity Research Center in King Khalid University Hospital, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Data on the use and cost of medications before and after bariatric surgery were collected.

Results:

A total of 266 patients, 107 males (40.23%), and 159 Females (59.77%) with a mean age of 41.06 years were included in the study. There was a reduction in the mean number of medications used by patients before and 1-year post-op (before: 1.84, after: 0.52), with a significant reduction in the cost of medications (SAR5152.24 before, and SAR1695.36 after, 67% reduction, P < 0.001). Patients < 32 years old had the most reduction in medications cost (76.64% reduction). No significant difference in the cost reduction after surgery between genders (P = 0.971). There were significant reductions in numbers of out-patient clinic visits (2.26 ± 2.43 to 1.57 ± 1.42) and in-patient hospitalizations (0.31 ± 0.57 to 0.10 ± 0.36) after surgery (P < 0.001 and P < 0.001, respectively).

Conclusion:

Bariatric surgery can be considered as a cost-effective treatment for patients with obesity-related comorbidities. A significant reduction has been found in post-operative medications cost, out-patient clinic visits and in-patient hospitalizations after bariatric surgery.

Impact of Disadvantaged Neighborhoods and Lifestyle Factors on Adult Obesity: Evidence From a 5-Year Cohort Study in Australia

PURPOSE

This study aims to investigate the impact of disadvantaged neighborhoods and lifestyle factors on obesity among Australian adults.

DESIGN

Quantitative, longitudinal research design.

SETTING

Cohort.

SAMPLE

Data for this study came from a cohort of 10 734 adults (21 468 observations) who participated in the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey. The participants were interviewed at baseline in 2013 and were followed up in 2017.

MEASURES

Generalized Estimating Equation model with logistic link function was employed to examine within-person changes in obesity due to disadvantaged neighborhoods and lifestyle factors at 2-time points over a 4-year follow-up period.

RESULTS

Adults living in the most disadvantaged area were 1.22 (odds ratio [OR]: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.08-1.38) and 1.30 (OR: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.20-1.42) times, respectively, more prone to be overweight and obese compared with peers living at least disadvantaged area. Study results also revealed that adults who consume fruits regularly and perform high levels of physical activity were 6% (OR: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.91-0.98) and 12% (OR: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.85-0.92) less likely to be obese, respectively, compared to their counterparts. Current alcohol drinkers were 1.07 (OR: 1.07, 95% CI: 1.01-1.13) times more likely to be obese compared to peers not consuming alcohol. Highly psychologically distressed adults were 1.08 times (OR: 1.08, 95% CI: 1.02-1.13) more likely to be obese than their peers.

CONCLUSION

This study contributes to the literature regarding disadvantaged neighborhoods and lifestyle factors, which have an influence on adult obesity rates and thus help health decision-makers to formulate effective obesity prevention strategies.

The potential impact of taxing sugar drinks on health inequality in Indonesia

Background

Evidence suggests reducing consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages is important to reducing weight gain and chronic disease risk. Indonesia’s large population is a growing market for sugar-sweetened beverages. Taxation to reduce consumption is of interest, but considered fiscally regressive. Little is known about differential effects between income groups in low-income countries.

Methods

This modelling study uses a proportional multistate life table to model reduced daily energy intake following a $0.30 per litre tax on sugar-sweetened beverages and subsequent shifts in Body Mass Index (BMI) distribution for income groups in Indonesia. Energy balance equations calculate reduced BMI. Reduced incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus, ischaemic heart disease and stroke is determined from the relative risk of the BMI shift and subsequent health-adjusted life years gained calculated.

Results

The tax’s effect was greater for higher income quintiles than lower. Energy intake reduced most in higher income quintiles. Cases of overweight and obesity for women decreased by approximately 15 000 in the lowest income quintile, but 417 000 for the highest. For men, this was 12 000 and 415 000. Over 25 years, 63 000 cases of diabetes were averted in the lowest quintile and 1 487 000 in the highest. Similar magnitudes were observed for stroke and ischaemic heart disease. Tax paid over 25 years was $0.5 billion for the lowest income quintile and $15.1 billion for the highest.

Conclusion

Sugar-sweetened beverage taxation can help to reduce the number of overweight and obese, and prevent over a million cases of diabetes in Indonesia. Higher income groups would benefit more than lower income groups. The tax would raise $920 million in the first year and $27.3 billion over 25 years.

Bariatric surgery, lifestyle interventions and orlistat for severe obesity: the REBALANCE mixed-methods systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Adults with severe obesity [body mass index (BMI) of ≥ 35 kg/m2] have an increased risk of comorbidities and psychological, social and economic consequences.

OBJECTIVES

Systematically review bariatric surgery, weight-management programmes (WMPs) and orlistat pharmacotherapy for adults with severe obesity, and evaluate the feasibility, acceptability, clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of treatment.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and the NHS Economic Evaluation Database were searched (last searched in May 2017).

REVIEW METHODS

Four systematic reviews evaluated clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and qualitative evidence for adults with a BMI of ≥ 35 kg/m2. Data from meta-analyses populated a microsimulation model predicting costs, outcomes and cost-effectiveness of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) surgery and the most effective lifestyle WMPs over a 30-year time horizon from a NHS perspective, compared with current UK population obesity trends. Interventions were cost-effective if the additional cost of achieving a quality-adjusted life-year is < £20,000-30,000.

RESULTS

A total of 131 randomised controlled trials (RCTs), 26 UK studies, 33 qualitative studies and 46 cost-effectiveness studies were included. From RCTs, RYGB produced the greatest long-term weight change [-20.23 kg, 95% confidence interval (CI) -23.75 to -16.71 kg, at 60 months]. WMPs with very low-calorie diets (VLCDs) produced the greatest weight loss at 12 months compared with no WMPs. Adding a VLCD to a WMP gave an additional mean weight change of -4.41 kg (95% CI -5.93 to -2.88 kg) at 12 months. The intensive Look AHEAD WMP produced mean long-term weight loss of 6% in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (at a median of 9.6 years). The microsimulation model found that WMPs were generally cost-effective compared with population obesity trends. Long-term WMP weight regain was very uncertain, apart from Look AHEAD. The addition of a VLCD to a WMP was not cost-effective compared with a WMP alone. RYGB was cost-effective compared with no surgery and WMPs, but the model did not replicate long-term cost savings found in previous studies. Qualitative data suggested that participants could be attracted to take part in WMPs through endorsement by their health-care provider or through perceiving innovative activities, with WMPs being delivered to groups. Features improving long-term weight loss included having group support, additional behavioural support, a physical activity programme to attend, a prescribed calorie diet or a calorie deficit.

LIMITATIONS

Reviewed studies often lacked generalisability to UK settings in terms of participants and resources for implementation, and usually lacked long-term follow-up (particularly for complications for surgery), leading to unrealistic weight regain assumptions. The views of potential and actual users of services were rarely reported to contribute to service design. This study may have failed to identify unpublished UK evaluations. Dual, blinded numerical data extraction was not undertaken.

CONCLUSIONS

Roux-en-Y gastric bypass was costly to deliver, but it was the most cost-effective intervention. Adding a VLCD to a WMP was not cost-effective compared with a WMP alone. Most WMPs were cost-effective compared with current population obesity trends.

FUTURE WORK

Improved reporting of WMPs is needed to allow replication, translation and further research. Qualitative research is needed with adults who are potential users of, or who fail to engage with or drop out from, WMPs. RCTs and economic evaluations in UK settings (e.g. Tier 3, commercial programmes or primary care) should evaluate VLCDs with long-term follow-up (≥ 5 years). Decision models should incorporate relevant costs, disease states and evidence-based weight regain assumptions.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016040190.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme. The Health Services Research Unit and Health Economics Research Unit are core funded by the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorate.

Modelled health benefits of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax across different socioeconomic groups in Australia: A cost-effectiveness and equity analysis

BACKGROUND

A sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax in Mexico has been effective in reducing consumption of SSBs, with larger decreases for low-income households. The health and financial effects across socioeconomic groups are important considerations for policy-makers. From a societal perspective, we assessed the potential cost-effectiveness, health gains, and financial impacts by socioeconomic position (SEP) of a 20% SSB tax for Australia.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Australia-specific price elasticities were used to predict decreases in SSB consumption for each Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) quintile. Changes in body mass index (BMI) were based on SSB consumption, BMI from the Australian Health Survey 2011-12, and energy balance equations. Markov cohort models were used to estimate the health impact for the Australian population, taking into account obesity-related diseases. Health-adjusted life years (HALYs) gained, healthcare costs saved, and out-of-pocket costs were estimated for each SEIFA quintile. Loss of economic welfare was calculated as the amount of deadweight loss in excess of taxation revenue. A 20% SSB tax would lead to HALY gains of 175,300 (95% CI: 68,700; 277,800) and healthcare cost savings of AU$1,733 million (m) (95% CI: $650m; $2,744m) over the lifetime of the population, with 49.5% of the total health gains accruing to the 2 lowest quintiles. We estimated the increase in annual expenditure on SSBs to be AU$35.40/capita (0.54% of expenditure on food and non-alcoholic drinks) in the lowest SEIFA quintile, a difference of AU$3.80/capita (0.32%) compared to the highest quintile. Annual tax revenue was estimated at AU$642.9m (95% CI: $348.2m; $1,117.2m). The main limitations of this study, as with all simulation models, is that the results represent only the best estimate of a potential effect in the absence of stronger direct evidence.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates that from a 20% tax on SSBs, the most HALYs gained and healthcare costs saved would accrue to the most disadvantaged quintiles in Australia. Whilst those in more disadvantaged areas would pay more SSB tax, the difference between areas is small. The equity of the tax could be further improved if the tax revenue were used to fund initiatives benefiting those with greater disadvantage.

Modelling obesity trends in Australia: unravelling the past and predicting the future

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Modelling is increasingly being used to predict the epidemiology of obesity progression and its consequences. The aims of this study were: (a) to present and validate a model for prediction of obesity among Australian adults and (b) to use the model to project the prevalence of obesity and severe obesity by 2025.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

Individual level simulation combined with survey estimation techniques to model changing population body mass index (BMI) distribution over time. The model input population was derived from a nationally representative survey in 1995, representing over 12 million adults. Simulations were run for 30 years. The model was validated retrospectively and then used to predict obesity and severe obesity by 2025 among different aged cohorts and at a whole population level.

RESULTS

The changing BMI distribution over time was well predicted by the model and projected prevalence of weight status groups agreed with population level data in 2008, 2012 and 2014.The model predicts more growth in obesity among younger than older adult cohorts. Projections at a whole population level, were that healthy weight will decline, overweight will remain steady, but obesity and severe obesity prevalence will continue to increase beyond 2016. Adult obesity prevalence was projected to increase from 19% in 1995 to 35% by 2025. Severe obesity (BMI>35), which was only around 5% in 1995, was projected to be 13% by 2025, two to three times the 1995 levels.

CONCLUSIONS

The projected rise in obesity severe obesity will have more substantial cost and healthcare system implications than in previous decades. Having a robust epidemiological model is key to predicting these long-term costs and health outcomes into the future.

The Impact of a Tax on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages on Health and Health Care Costs: A Modelling Study

This paper aims to estimate the consequences of an additional 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) on health and health care expenditure. Participants were adult (aged > = 20) Australians alive in 2010, who were modelled over their remaining lifetime. We used lifetable-based epidemiological modelling to examine the potential impact of a 20% valoric tax on SSBs on total lifetime disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), incidence, prevalence, and mortality of obesity-related disease, and health care expenditure. Over the lifetime of adult Australian alive in 2010, seemingly modest estimated changes in average body mass as a result of the SSB tax translated to gains of 112,000 health-adjusted life years for men (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 73,000–155,000) and 56,000 (95% UI: 36,000–76,000) for women, and a reduction in overall health care expenditure of AUD609 million (95% UI: 368 million– 870 million). The tax is estimated to reduce the number of new type 2 diabetes cases by approximately 800 per year. Twenty-five years after the introduction of the tax, there would be 4,400 fewer prevalent cases of heart disease and 1,100 fewer persons living with the consequences of stroke, and an estimated 1606 extra people would be alive as a result of the tax. The tax would generate an estimated AUD400 million in revenue each year. Governments should consider increasing the tax on sugared drinks. This would improve population health, reduce health care costs, as well as bring in direct revenue.

Industry is not the dark side, but an essential partner to make progress in reproductive health

For the last 20 years, Thomas D'Hooghe has been coordinator of the Leuven University Fertility Center at Leuven University Hospitals, Belgium, one of the largest teaching hospitals in Europe. Since 1995, he has also been Professor of Reproductive Medicine and Biology at KU Leuven (University of Leuven) and Adjunct Professor at Yale University, USA. Since 1 October 2015, he has been the Vice President and Head of Global Medical Affairs Fertility at Merck's headquarters in Darmstadt, Germany. He has published nearly 300 papers in internationally peer-reviewed journals and has contributed to reproductive health serving major international organizations such as the WHO, the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology, the Society of Reproductive Investigation and the World Endometriosis Research Foundation.

Applying a private sector capitation model to the management of type 2 diabetes in the South African public sector: a cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Diabetes mellitus contributes substantially to the non-communicable disease burden in South Africa. The proposed National Health Insurance system provides an opportunity to consider the development of a cost-effective capitation model of care for patients with type 2 diabetes. The objective of the study was to determine the potential cost-effectiveness of adapting a private sector diabetes management programme (DMP) to the South African public sector.

METHODS

Cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken with a public sector model of the DMP as the intervention and a usual practice model as the comparator. Probabilistic modelling was utilized for incremental cost-effectiveness ratio analysis with life years gained selected as the outcome. Secondary data were used to design the model while cost information was obtained from various sources, taking into account public sector billing.

RESULTS

Modelling found an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of ZAR 8 356 (USD 1018) per life year gained (LYG) for the DMP against the usual practice model. This fell substantially below the Willingness-to-Pay threshold with bootstrapping analysis. Furthermore, a national implementation of the intervention could potentially result in an estimated cumulative gain of 96 997 years of life (95% CI 71 073 years - 113 994 years).

CONCLUSIONS

Probabilistic modelling found the capitation intervention to be cost-effective, with an ICER of ZAR 8 356 (USD 1018) per LYG. Piloting the service within the public sector is recommended as an initial step, as this would provide data for more accurate economic evaluation, and would also allow for qualitative analysis of the programme.

Modelling the economics of type 2 diabetes mellitus prevention: a literature review of methods

Our objective was to review modelling methods for type 2 diabetes mellitus prevention cost-effectiveness studies. The review was conducted to inform the design of a policy analysis model capable of assisting resource allocation decisions across a spectrum of prevention strategies. We identified recent systematic reviews of economic evaluations in diabetes prevention and management of obesity. We extracted studies from two existing systematic reviews of economic evaluations for the prevention of diabetes. We extracted studies evaluating interventions in a non-diabetic population with type 2 diabetes as a modelled outcome, from two systematic reviews of obesity intervention economic evaluations. Databases were searched for studies published between 2008 and 2013. For each study, we reviewed details of the model type, structure, and methods for predicting diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Our review identified 46 articles and found variation in modelling approaches for cost-effectiveness evaluations for the prevention of type 2 diabetes. Investigation of the variables used to estimate the risk of type 2 diabetes suggested that impaired glucose regulation, and body mass index were used as the primary risk factors for type 2 diabetes. A minority of cost-effectiveness models for diabetes prevention accounted for the multivariate impacts of interventions on risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Twenty-eight cost-effectiveness models included cardiovascular events in addition to type 2 diabetes. Few cost-effectiveness models have flexibility to evaluate different intervention types. We conclude that to compare a range of prevention interventions it is necessary to incorporate multiple risk factors for diabetes, diabetes-related complications and obesity-related co-morbidity outcomes.

Economics of obesity--learning from the past to contribute to a better future

The discipline of economics plays a varied role in informing the understanding of the problem of obesity and the impact of different interventions aimed at addressing it. This paper discusses the causes of the obesity epidemic from an economics perspective, and outlines various justifications for government intervention in this area. The paper then focuses on the potential contribution of health economics in supporting resource allocation decision making for obesity prevention/treatment. Although economic evaluations of single interventions provide useful information, evaluations undertaken as part of a priority setting exercise provide the greatest scope for influencing decision making. A review of several priority setting examples in obesity prevention/treatment indicates that policy (as compared with program-based) interventions, targeted at prevention (as compared with treatment) and focused “upstream” on the food environment, are likely to be the most cost-effective options for change. However, in order to further support decision makers, several methodological advances are required. These include the incorporation of intervention costs/benefits outside the health sector, the addressing of equity impacts, and the increased engagement of decision makers in the priority setting process.