Combined spatio-temporal impacts of climate and longline fisheries on the survival of a trans-equatorial marine migrant

Use of bird-borne radar to examine shearwater interactions with legal and illegal fisheries

Seabirds interact with fishing vessels to consume fishing discards and baits, sometimes resulting in incidental capture (bycatch) and the death of the bird, which has clear conservation implications. To understand seabird-fishery interactions at large spatiotemporal scales, researchers are increasing their use of simultaneous seabird and fishing vessel tracking. However, vessel tracking data can contain gaps due to technical problems, illicit manipulation, or lack of adoption of tracking monitoring systems. These gaps might lead to underestimating the fishing effort and bycatch rates and jeopardize the effectiveness of marine conservation. We deployed bird-borne radar detector tags capable of recording radar signals from vessels. We placed tags on 88 shearwaters (Calonectris diomedea, Calonectris borealis, and Calonectris edwardsii) that forage in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea and the Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem. We modeled vessel radar detections registered by the tags in relation to gridded automatic identification system (AIS) vessel tracking data to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of seabird-vessel interactions and identify unreported fishing activity areas. Our models showed a moderate fit (area under the curve >0.7) to vessel tracking data, indicating a strong association of shearwaters to fishing vessels in major fishing grounds. Although in high-marine-traffic regions, radar detections were also driven by nonfishing vessels. The tags registered the presence of potential unregulated and unreported fishing vessels in West African waters, where merchant shipping is unusual but fishing activity is intense. Overall, bird-borne radar detectors showed areas and periods when the association of seabirds with legal and illegal fishing vessels was high. Bird-borne radar detectors could improve the focus of conservation efforts.

Will climate change affect the survival of tropical and subtropical species? Predictions based on Bulwer's petrel populations in the NE Atlantic Ocean

Climate change has repeatedly been shown to impact the demography and survival of marine top predators. However, most evidence comes from single populations of widely distributed species, limited mainly to polar and subpolar environments. Here, we aimed to evaluate the influence of environmental conditions on the survival of a tropical and migratory seabird over the course of its annual cycle. We used capture-mark-recapture data from three populations of Bulwer's petrel (Bulweria bulwerii) spread across the NE Atlantic Ocean, from the Azores, Canary, and Cabo Verde Islands (including temperate to tropical zones). We also inferred how the survival of this seabird might be affected under different climatic scenarios, defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Among the environmental variables whose effect we evaluated (North Atlantic Oscillation index, Southern Oscillation Index, Sea Surface Temperature [SST] and wind speed), SST estimated for the breeding area and season was the variable with the greatest influence on adult survival. Negative effects of SST increase emerged across the three populations, most likely through indirect trophic web interactions. Unfortunately, our study also shows that the survival of Bulwer's petrel will be profoundly affected by the different scenarios of climate change, even with the most optimistic trajectory involving the lowest greenhouse gas emission. Furthermore, for the first time, our study predicts stronger impacts of climate change on tropical populations than on subtropical and temperate ones. This result highlights the devastating effect that climate change may also have on tropical areas, and the importance of considering multi-population approaches when evaluating its impacts which may differ across species distributions.

Broad-scale climate variation drives the dynamics of animal populations: a global multi-taxa analysis

Climate is a major extrinsic factor affecting the population dynamics of many organisms. The Broad-Scale Climate Hypothesis (BSCH) was proposed by Elton to explain the large-scale synchronous population cycles of animals, but the extent of support and whether it differs among taxa and geographical regions is unclear. We reviewed publications examining the relationship between the population dynamics of multiple taxa worldwide and the two most commonly used broad-scale climate indices, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our review and synthesis (based on 561 species from 221 papers) reveals that population changes of mammals, birds and insects are strongly affected by major oceanic shifts or irregular oceanic changes, particularly in ENSO- and NAO-influenced regions (Pacific and Atlantic, respectively), providing clear evidence supporting Elton's BSCH. Mammal and insect populations tended to increase during positive ENSO phases. Bird populations tended to increase in positive NAO phases. Some species showed dual associations with both positive and negative phases of the same climate index (ENSO or NAO). These findings indicate that some taxa or regions are more or less vulnerable to climate fluctuations and that some geographical areas show multiple weather effects related to ENSO or NAO phases. Beyond confirming that animal populations are influenced by broad-scale climate variation, we document extensive patterns of variation among taxa and observe that the direct biotic and abiotic mechanisms for these broad-scale climate factors affecting animal populations are very poorly understood. A practical implication of our research is that changes in ENSO or NAO can be used as early signals for pest management and wildlife conservation. We advocate integrative studies at both broad and local scales to unravel the omnipresent effects of climate on animal populations to help address the challenge of conserving biodiversity in this era of accelerated climate change.

Machine learning as a successful approach for predicting complex spatio–temporal patterns in animal species abundance

Our aim was to identify an optimal analytical approach for accurately predicting complex spatio–temporal patterns in animal species distribution. We compared the performance of eight modelling techniques (generalized additive models, regression trees, bagged CART, k–nearest neighbors, stochastic gradient boosting, support vector machines, neural network, and random forest –enhanced form of bootstrap. We also performed extreme gradient boosting –an enhanced form of radiant boosting– to predict spatial patterns in abundance of migrating Balearic shearwaters based on data gathered within eBird. Derived from open–source datasets, proxies of frontal systems and ocean productivity domains that have been previously used to characterize the oceanographic habitats of seabirds were quantified, and then used as predictors in the models. The random forest model showed the best performance according to the parameters assessed (RMSE value and R2). The correlation between observed and predicted abundance with this model was also considerably high. This study shows that the combination of machine learning techniques and massive data provided by open data sources is a useful approach for identifying the long–term spatial–temporal distribution of species at regional spatial scales.

Crossing the Pillars of Hercules: Understanding transoceanic migrations of seabirds throughout their breeding range

Variability in long-distance migration strategies is still poorly understood due to the fact that individuals are often tracked from a single colony/population. Transoceanic migrations of Scopoli's shearwaters (Calonectris diomedea) across the Strait of Gibraltar (SoG) have been tracked from several breeding colonies isolatedly, and factors related to the variability in phenological schedules among different populations remain, therefore, not well-understood. Using light-level geolocator data, I examined the autumn (postbreeding) and spring (prebreeding) migratory passage dates through SoG of four populations of Scopoli's shearwater spread along the longitudinal breeding range of the species. Additionally, I also estimated the at-sea activity patterns (from immersion data) during both migratory passages, as well as the body size (from morphometric data) of the individuals of these populations. On average, Scopoli's shearwaters leave the Mediterranean (cross SoG) on 31 October ± 1.8 days on their autumn migrations and return on 03 March ± 1.6 days on their spring migrations. At the population level, there was a clear gradient in the timing of crossing SoG: birds from the westernmost populations (Murcia, SE Spain) were the first ones in leaving the Mediterranean while easternmost breeders (Paximada, Crete) were the last ones. In spring, only birds from the largest breeding population (Zembra, Tunisia) seemed to advance their return and crossed SoG significantly earlier than birds tracked at the remaining populations. In both passages, shearwaters from central and eastern populations spent more time flying than their conspecifics from the western Mediterranean. Scopoli's shearwater populations display a differential phenology and behavior in their migratory passages through SoG. The longitudinal gradient in body size already reported for the species could be an evolutionary response to an obvious trade-off between sharing common wintering grounds in the Atlantic Ocean and the temporal constraints of restoring physiological condition in those grounds.

OPEN RESEARCH BADGES

This article has earned an Open Data Badge for making publicly available the digitally-shareable data necessary to reproduce the reported results. The data is available at https://hdl.handle.net/2445/128784.

Varying demographic impacts of different fisheries on three Mediterranean seabird species

Fisheries have an enormous economic importance, but reconciling their socio-economic features with the conservation and sustainability of marine ecosystems presents major challenges. Bycatch mortality from fisheries is clearly among the most serious global threats for marine ecosystems, affecting a wide range of top predators. Recent estimates report ca. 200,000 seabirds killed annually by bycatch in European waters. However, there is an urgent need to rigorously estimate actual mortality rates and quantify effects of bycatch on populations. The Mediterranean Sea is one of the most impacted regions. Here, we estimate for the first time both bycatch mortality rates and their population-level effects on three endemic and vulnerable Mediterranean taxa: Scopoli's shearwater, Mediterranean shag, and Audouin's gull, that die in different types of fishing gears: longlines, gillnets and sport trolling, respectively. We use multi-event capture-recapture modelling to estimate crucial demographic parameters, including the probabilities of dying in different fishing gears. We then build stochastic demography models to forecast the viability of the populations under different management scenarios. Longline bycatch was particularly severe for adults of Scopoli's shearwaters and Audouin's gulls (ca. 28% and 23% of total mortality, respectively) and also for immature gulls (ca. 90% of mortality). Gillnets had a lower impact, but were still responsible for ca. 9% of juvenile mortality on shags, whereas sport trolling only slightly influenced total mortality in gulls. Bycatch mortality has high population-level impacts in all three species, with shearwaters having the highest extinction risk under current mortality rates. Different life-history traits and compensatory demographic mechanisms between the three species are probably influencing the different bycatch impact: for shearwaters, urgent conservation actions are required to ensure the viability of their populations. Results will be very useful for guiding future seabird conservation policies and moving towards an ecosystem-based approach to sustainable fisheries management.

Population-Scale Foraging Segregation in an Apex Predator of the North Atlantic

In this work we investigated the between-colony spatial, behavioural and trophic segregation of two sub-populations of the elusive Macaronesian shearwaters Puffinus baroli breeding only ~340 km apart in Cima Islet (Porto Santo Island) and Selvagem Grande Island. Global location sensing (gls) loggers were used in combination with the trophic ecology of tracked individuals, inferred from the isotopic signatures of wing feathers. Results suggest that these two Macaronesian shearwater sub-populations do segregate during the non-breeding period in some ‘sub-population-specific’ regions, by responding to different oceanographic characteristics (habitat modelling). Within these disparate areas, both sub-populations behave differently (at-sea activity) and prey on disparate trophic niches (stable isotope analysis). One hypothesis would be that each sub-population have evolved and adapted to feed on particular and ‘sub-population-specific’ resources, and the segregation observed at the three different levels (spatial, behavioural and trophic) might be in fact a result of such adaptation, from the emergence of ‘cultural foraging patterns’. Finally, when comparing to the results of former studies reporting on the spatial, behavioural and trophic choices of Macaronesian shearwater populations breeding on Azores and Canary Islands, we realized the high ecological plasticity of this species inhabiting and foraging over the North-East Atlantic Ocean.

Factors affecting the foraging behaviour of the European shag: implications for seabird tracking studies

Seabird tracking has become an ever more popular tool to aid environmental procedures such as the designation of marine protected areas and environmental impact assessments. However, samples used are usually small and little consideration is given to experimental design and sampling protocol. European shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis were tracked using GPS technology over three breeding seasons and the following foraging trip characteristics: trip duration, trip distance, maximum distance travelled from the colony, size of area used and direction travelled from colony were determined for each foraging trip. The effect of sex, year of study, breeding site, number and age of chicks and the timing of tracking on foraging behaviour were investigated using a General Estimation Equation model. A range of sampling scenarios reflecting likely field sampling were also tested to compare how foraging behaviour differed depending on composition of the sample of birds tracked. Trip distance, trip duration, maximum distance travelled and size of area used were all significantly affected by the breeding site, and the number of chicks a tracked adult was raising. The effect of sex was also seen when examining trip distance, trip duration and the maximum distance travelled. The direction travelled on a foraging trip was also significantly affected by breeding site. This study highlights the importance of sampling regime and the influence that year, sex, age, number of chicks and breeding site can have on the foraging trip characteristics for this coastal feeding seabird. Given the logistical and financial constraints in tracking large numbers of individuals, this study identifies the need for researchers to consider the composition of their study sample to ensure any identified foraging areas are as representative as possible of the whole colony's foraging area.

Trans-equatorial migration routes, staging sites and wintering areas of a high-Arctic avian predator: the long-tailed Skua (Stercorarius longicaudus)

The Long-tailed Skua, a small (<300 g) Arctic-breeding predator and seabird, is a functionally very important component of the Arctic vertebrate communities in summer, but little is known about its migration and winter distribution. We used light-level geolocators to track the annual movements of eight adult birds breeding in north-east Greenland (n = 3) and Svalbard (n = 5). All birds wintered in the Southern Hemisphere (mean arrival-departure dates on wintering grounds: 24 October-21 March): five along the south-west coast of Africa (0–40°S, 0–15°E), in the productive Benguela upwelling, and three further south (30–40°S, 0–50°E), in an area extending into the south-west Indian Ocean. Different migratory routes and rates of travel were documented during post-breeding (345 km d⁻¹ in late August-early September) and spring migrations (235 km d⁻¹ in late April) when most birds used a more westerly flyway. Among the different staging areas, a large region off the Grand Banks of Newfoundland appears to be the most important. It was used in autumn by all but one of the tracked birds (from a few days to three weeks) and in spring by five out of eight birds (from one to more than six weeks). Two other staging sites, off the Iberian coast and near the Azores, were used by two birds in spring for five to six weeks. Over one year, individuals travelled between 43,900 and 54,200 km (36,600–45,700 when excluding staging periods) and went as far as 10,500–13,700 km (mean 12,800 km) from their breeding sites. This study has revealed important marine areas in both the south and north Atlantic Ocean. Sustainable management of these ocean basins will benefit Long-tailed Skuas as well as other trans-equatorial migrants from the Arctic.