Modeling the habitat retreat of the rediscovered endemic Hawaiian moth Omiodes continuatalis Wallengren (Lepidoptera: Crambidae)

Comparing invasiveness of native and non-native species under changing climate in North-East India: ecological niche modelling with plant types differing in biogeographic origin

We assess the invasive potential of Ageratum conyzoides, Hevea brasiliensis, Urena lobata and Imperata cylindrica differing in habit and biogeographic origin through ecological niche modelling in the context of the 2000 and 2050 climates of North-East (NE) India. Out of these four species, Ageratum conyzoides, Urena lobata and Imperata cylindrica are naturally occurring weed species and Hevea brasiliensis is a cultivated tree species. This study tries to address a basic question whether species with similarity in biogeographic origin may have some uniform strategy to succeed in invasion process. Ecological niche models predicted that Ageratum conyzoides (a shrub) and Hevea brasiliensis (a tree) of South American origin have greater potential to invade/distribute in NE region of India by 2050 than two other species, Urena lobata and Imperata cylindrica, of South-Asian origin. The latter two species show lower potential to invade in NE India in 2050 compared with their extent of distribution in 2000. A set of major contributing bioclimatic factors responsible for distribution of two South-Asian species (Urena and Imperata sp.) remain more or less constant between 2000 and 2050 climates. However, the distribution of Ageratum sp. and Hevea sp. with respect to two climate scenarios is attributed by two different sets of major bioclimatic factors. This indicates the robustness of the species to get adapted to different set of climatic variables over time.

Assessing the potential of translocating vulnerable forest birds by searching for novel and enduring climatic ranges

Hawaiian forest birds are imperiled, with fewer than half the original >40 species remaining extant. Recent studies document ongoing rapid population decline and project complete climate-based range losses for the critically endangered Kaua'i endemics 'akeke'e (Loxops caeruleirostris) and 'akikiki (Oreomystis bairdi) by end-of-century due to projected warming. Climate change facilitates the upward expansion of avian malaria into native high elevation forests where disease was historically absent. While intensified conservation efforts attempt to safeguard these species and their habitats, the magnitude of potential loss and the urgency of this situation require all conservation options to be seriously considered. One option for Kaua'i endemics is translocation to islands with higher elevation habitats. We explored the feasibility of interisland translocation by projecting baseline and future climate-based ranges of 'akeke'e and 'akikiki across the Hawaiian archipelago. For islands where compatible climates for these species were projected to endure through end-of-century, an additional climatic niche overlap analysis compares the spatial overlap between Kaua'i endemics and current native species on prospective destination islands. Suitable climate-based ranges exist on Maui and Hawai'i for these Kaua'i endemics that offer climatically distinct areas compared to niche distributions of destination island endemics. While we recognize that any decision to translocate birds will include assessing numerous additional social, political, and biological factors, our focus on locations of enduring and ecologically compatible climate-based ranges represents the first step to evaluate this potential conservation option. Our approach considering baseline and future distributions of species with climatic niche overlap metrics to identify undesirable range overlap provides a method that can be utilized for other climate-vulnerable species with disjointed compatible environments beyond their native range.

Spatial Heterogeneity of Habitat Suitability for Rift Valley Fever Occurrence in Tanzania: An Ecological Niche Modelling Approach

BACKGROUND

Despite the long history of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Tanzania, extent of its suitable habitat in the country remains unclear. In this study we investigated potential effects of temperature, precipitation, elevation, soil type, livestock density, rainfall pattern, proximity to wild animals, protected areas and forest on the habitat suitability for RVF occurrence in Tanzania.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Presence-only records of 193 RVF outbreak locations from 1930 to 2007 together with potential predictor variables were used to model and map the suitable habitats for RVF occurrence using ecological niche modelling. Ground-truthing of the model outputs was conducted by comparing the levels of RVF virus specific antibodies in cattle, sheep and goats sampled from locations in Tanzania that presented different predicted habitat suitability values.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Habitat suitability values for RVF occurrence were higher in the northern and central-eastern regions of Tanzania than the rest of the regions in the country. Soil type and precipitation of the wettest quarter contributed equally to habitat suitability (32.4% each), followed by livestock density (25.9%) and rainfall pattern (9.3%). Ground-truthing of model outputs revealed that the odds of an animal being seropositive for RVFV when sampled from areas predicted to be most suitable for RVF occurrence were twice the odds of an animal sampled from areas least suitable for RVF occurrence (95% CI: 1.43, 2.76, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE

The regions in the northern and central-eastern Tanzania were more suitable for RVF occurrence than the rest of the regions in the country. The modelled suitable habitat is characterised by impermeable soils, moderate precipitation in the wettest quarter, high livestock density and a bimodal rainfall pattern. The findings of this study should provide guidance for the design of appropriate RVF surveillance, prevention and control strategies which target areas with these characteristics.

Conservation implications of changes in endemic Hawaiian Drosophilidae diversity across land use gradients

Endemic Hawaiian Drosophilidae, a radiation of nearly 1000 species including 13 federally listed as endangered, occur mostly in intact native forest, 500–1500 m above sea level. But their persistence in disturbed forest and agricultural areas has not been documented. Thus, control efforts for agricultural pests may impact endemic species if previously undocumented refugia in agricultural areas may play a role in their conservation. To quantify whether invasive plants and agriculture habitats may harbor endemic Drosophilidae, we established standardized trapping arrays, with traps typically designed to control invasive fruit flies (Tephritidae), with 81 sites across native, disturbed and agricultural land use gradients on the islands of Hawai’i and Maui. We collected and identified, to species level, over 22,000 specimens. We found 121 of the possible 292 species expected to occur in the sampled areas, and the majority (91%) of the captured specimens belonged to 24 common species. Species diversity and numbers were greatest in the native forest, but 55% of the species occurred in the invasive strawberry guava belt and plantation forest, adjacent to and almost 500 m from native forest, and 22 species were collected in orchards and nonnative forest as far as 10 km from native habitats. Their persistence outside of native forest suggests that more careful management of disturbed forest and a reassessment of its conservation value are in order. Conservation efforts and assessments of native forest integrity should include the subset of species restricted to intact native forest, since these species are highly localized and particularly sensitive. Additionally, future efforts to control invasive pest fruit flies should consider the nontarget impacts of maintaining traps in and near native forest. This survey project demonstrates the utility of thorough biotic surveys and taxonomic expertise in developing both sensitive species lists and baseline diversity indices for future conservation and monitoring efforts.