Maternal characteristics, mean arterial pressure and serum markers in early prediction of preeclampsia

Machine Learning Algorithms Versus Classical Regression Models in Pre-Eclampsia Prediction: A Systematic Review

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Machine learning (ML) approaches are an emerging alternative for healthcare risk prediction. We aimed to synthesise the literature on ML and classical regression studies exploring potential prognostic factors and to compare prediction performance for pre-eclampsia.

RECENT FINDINGS

From 9382 studies retrieved, 82 were included. Sixty-six publications exclusively reported eighty-four classical regression models to predict variable timing of onset of pre-eclampsia. Another six publications reported purely ML algorithms, whilst another 10 publications reported ML algorithms and classical regression models in the same sample with 8 of 10 findings that ML algorithms outperformed classical regression models. The most frequent prognostic factors were age, pre-pregnancy body mass index, chronic medical conditions, parity, prior history of pre-eclampsia, mean arterial pressure, uterine artery pulsatility index, placental growth factor, and pregnancy-associated plasma protein A. Top performing ML algorithms were random forest (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.91-0.96) and extreme gradient boosting (AUC = 0.92, 95% CI 0.90-0.94). The competing risk model had similar performance (AUC = 0.92, 95% CI 0.91-0.92) compared with a neural network. Calibration performance was not reported in the majority of publications. ML algorithms had better performance compared to classical regression models in pre-eclampsia prediction. Random forest and boosting-type algorithms had the best prediction performance. Further research should focus on comparing ML algorithms to classical regression models using the same samples and evaluation metrics to gain insight into their performance. External validation of ML algorithms is warranted to gain insights into their generalisability.

Externally validated prediction models for pre-eclampsia: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the performance of existing externally validated prediction models for pre-eclampsia (PE) (specifically, any-onset, early-onset, late-onset and preterm PE).

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted in five databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, Emcare, CINAHL and Maternity & Infant Care Database) and using Google Scholar/reference search to identify studies based on the Population, Index prediction model, Comparator, Outcome, Timing and Setting (PICOTS) approach until 20 May 2023. We extracted data using the CHARMS checklist and appraised the risk of bias using the PROBAST tool. A meta-analysis of discrimination and calibration performance was conducted when appropriate.

RESULTS

Twenty-three studies reported 52 externally validated prediction models for PE (one preterm, 20 any-onset, 17 early-onset and 14 late-onset PE models). No model had the same set of predictors. Fifteen any-onset PE models were validated externally once, two were validated twice and three were validated three times, while the Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) competing-risks model for preterm PE prediction was validated widely in 16 different settings. The most common predictors were maternal characteristics (prepregnancy body mass index, prior PE, family history of PE, chronic medical conditions and ethnicity) and biomarkers (uterine artery pulsatility index and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A). The FMF model for preterm PE (triple test plus maternal factors) had the best performance, with a pooled area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve (AUC) of 0.90 (95% prediction interval (PI), 0.76-0.96), and was well calibrated. The other models generally had poor-to-good discrimination performance (median AUC, 0.66 (range, 0.53-0.77)) and were overfitted on external validation. Apart from the FMF model, only two models that were validated multiple times for any-onset PE prediction, which were based on maternal characteristics only, produced reasonable pooled AUCs of 0.71 (95% PI, 0.66-0.76) and 0.73 (95% PI, 0.55-0.86).

CONCLUSIONS

Existing externally validated prediction models for any-, early- and late-onset PE have limited discrimination and calibration performance, and include inconsistent input variables. The triple-test FMF model had outstanding discrimination performance in predicting preterm PE in numerous settings, but the inclusion of specialized biomarkers may limit feasibility and implementation outside of high-resource settings. © 2023 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

The association between human chorionic gonadotropin and adverse pregnancy outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the association between human chorionic gonadotropin and adverse pregnancy outcomes.

DATA SOURCES

Medline, Embase, PubMed, and Cochrane were searched in November 2021 using Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) and relevant key words.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

This analysis included published full-text studies of pregnant women with serum human chorionic gonadotropin testing between 8 and 28 weeks of gestation, investigating fetal outcomes (fetal death in utero, small for gestational age, preterm birth) or maternal factors (hypertension in pregnancy: preeclampsia, pregnancy-induced hypertension, placental abruption, HELLP syndrome, gestational diabetes mellitus).

METHODS

Studies were extracted using REDCap software. The Newcastle-Ottawa scale was used to assess for risk of bias. Final meta-analyses underwent further quality assessment using the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation) method.

RESULTS

A total of 185 studies were included in the final review, including the outcomes of fetal death in utero (45), small for gestational age (79), preterm delivery (62), hypertension in pregnancy (107), gestational diabetes mellitus (29), placental abruption (17), and HELLP syndrome (2). Data were analyzed separately on the basis of categorical measurement of human chorionic gonadotropin and human chorionic gonadotropin measured on a continuous scale. Eligible studies underwent meta-analysis to generate a pooled odds ratio (categorical human chorionic gonadotropin level) or difference in medians (human chorionic gonadotropin continuous scale) between outcome groups. First-trimester low human chorionic gonadotropin levels were associated with preeclampsia and fetal death in utero, whereas high human chorionic gonadotropin levels were associated with preeclampsia. Second-trimester high human chorionic gonadotropin levels were associated with fetal death in utero and preeclampsia.

CONCLUSION

Human chorionic gonadotropin levels are associated with placenta-mediated adverse pregnancy outcomes. Both high and low human chorionic gonadotropin levels in the first trimester of pregnancy can be early warning signs of adverse outcomes. Further analysis of human chorionic gonadotropin subtypes and pregnancy outcomes is required to determine the diagnostic utility of these findings in reference to specific cutoff values.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a first-trimester screening test for preterm preeclampsia in the Netherlands

OBJECTIVES

The risk of preterm preeclampsia (PT PE) can significantly be reduced by starting acetylsalicylic acid ≤ 16 weeks of gestational age. First trimester predictive models based on maternal risk factors to effectively start this therapy lacked sufficient power, but recent studies showed that these models can be improved by including test results of biochemical and/or -physical markers. To investigate whether testing a biochemical marker in the first trimester is cost-effective in the Netherlands, a cost-effectiveness analysis was performed in this study.

STUDY DESIGN

The outcome of this study was expressed as an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) with as effect prevented PT PE cases. To evaluate the impact of each model parameter and to determine model uncertainties, both univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

When compared to the baseline strategy, the test strategy is estimated to save almost 4 million euros per year on a national scale and at the same time this would prevent an additional 228 PT PE cases. The sensitivity analyses showed that the major drivers of the result are the costs to monitor a high-risk pregnancy and the specificity and that most of the model simulations were in the southeast quadrant: cost saving and more prevented complications.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that a first-trimester test strategy to screen for PT PE in the first trimester is potentially cost-effective in the Dutch healthcare setting. The fact that the specificity is a major driver of the ICER indicates the importance for a (new) screening model to correctly classify low-risk pregnancies.

Perspectives on the Use of Placental Growth Factor (PlGF) in the Prediction and Diagnosis of Pre-Eclampsia: Recent Insights and Future Steps

Pre-eclampsia (PE) is a complex multisystem disease of pregnancy that is becoming increasingly recognized as a state of angiogenic imbalance characterized by low concentrations of placental growth factor (PlGF) and elevated soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase (sFlt-1). PlGF is a protein highly expressed by the placenta with vasculogenic and angiogenic properties, which has a central role in spiral artery remodeling and the development of a low-resistance placental capillary network. PlGF concentrations are significantly lower in women with preterm PE, and these reduced levels have been shown to precede the clinical onset of disease. Subsequently, the clinical utility of maternal serum PlGF has been extensively studied in singleton gestations from as early as 11 to 13 weeks' gestation, utilizing a validated multimarker prediction model, which performs superiorly to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) and American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) guidelines in the detection of preterm PE. There is extensive research highlighting the role of PlGF-based testing utilizing commercially available assays in accelerating the diagnosis of PE in symptomatic women over 20 weeks' gestation and predicting time-to-delivery, allowing individualized risk stratification and appropriate antenatal surveillance to be determined. "Real-world" data has shown that interpretation of PlGF-based test results can aid clinicians in improving maternal outcomes and a growing body of evidence has implied a role for sFlt-1/PlGF in the prognostication of adverse pregnancy and perinatal events. Subsequently, PlGF-based testing is increasingly being implemented into obstetric practice and is advocated by NICE. This literature review aims to provide healthcare professionals with an understanding of the role of angiogenic biomarkers in PE and discuss the evidence for PlGF-based screening and triage. Prospective studies are warranted to explore if its implementation significantly improves perinatal outcomes, explore the value of repeat PlGF testing, and its use in multiple pregnancies.

Predictive value of the second-trimester fibronectin concentration for severe preeclampsia: A prospective nested case-control study in China

AIM

To evaluate the value of the second-trimester fibronectin concentration, alone and in combination with other markers (e.g., mean arterial pressure, inhibin A), in the identification of women who subsequently develop severe preeclampsia.

METHODS

For this prospective nested case-control study, serum from pregnant women (gestational age 15-22 weeks) who underwent routine Down syndrome screening was analyzed. The women were tracked to delivery and assigned to the severe preeclampsia or control group, according to whether they developed severe preeclampsia. Each woman who later developed severe preeclampsia was paired with five healthy women with pregnancies of similar gestational age (± 1 week). Fibronectin, inhibin A, human chorionic gonadotropin, placental growth factor, cysteine, and homocysteine concentrations were measured in 44 cases in the severe preeclampsia group and 220 cases in the control group. The body mass index and mean arterial pressure were calculated. All results were compared between the two groups. Logistic regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic curve construction were conducted for markers differing significantly between two groups.

RESULTS

The second-trimester fibronectin value was positively correlated with severe preeclampsia and predicted 67.7% of severe preeclampsia cases. The combination of fibronectin, inhibin A, and mean arterial pressure predicted 76.7% of severe preeclampsia cases; predictive values for combinations of fibronectin with mean arterial pressure or inhibin A were 75.4% and 74.6%, respectively. Combination with these other markers increased the predictive value of fibronectin. In addition, fibronectin was more powerful for the late severe preeclampsia and severe preeclampsia without fetal growth restriction subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

The second-trimester fibronectin concentration can be used to predict severe preeclampsia.

First trimester preeclampsia screening and prediction

Preeclampsia is a major cause of maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality. Early-onset disease requiring preterm delivery is associated with a higher risk of complications in both mothers and babies. Evidence suggests that the administration of low-dose aspirin initiated before 16 weeks' gestation significantly reduces the rate of preterm preeclampsia. Therefore, it is important to identify pregnant women at risk of developing preeclampsia during the first trimester of pregnancy, thus allowing timely therapeutic intervention. Several professional organizations such as the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) have proposed screening for preeclampsia based on maternal risk factors. The approach recommended by ACOG and NICE essentially treats each risk factor as a separate screening test with additive detection rate and screen-positive rate. Evidence has shown that preeclampsia screening based on the NICE and ACOG approach has suboptimal performance, as the NICE recommendation only achieves detection rates of 41% and 34%, with a 10% false-positive rate, for preterm and term preeclampsia, respectively. Screening based on the 2013 ACOG recommendation can only achieve detection rates of 5% and 2% for preterm and term preeclampsia, respectively, with a 0.2% false-positive rate. Various first trimester prediction models have been developed. Most of them have not undergone or failed external validation. However, it is worthy of note that the Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) first trimester prediction model (namely the triple test), which consists of a combination of maternal factors and measurements of mean arterial pressure, uterine artery pulsatility index, and serum placental growth factor, has undergone successful internal and external validation. The FMF triple test has detection rates of 90% and 75% for the prediction of early and preterm preeclampsia, respectively, with a 10% false-positive rate. Such performance of screening is superior to that of the traditional method by maternal risk factors alone. The use of the FMF prediction model, followed by the administration of low-dose aspirin, has been shown to reduce the rate of preterm preeclampsia by 62%. The number needed to screen to prevent 1 case of preterm preeclampsia by the FMF triple test is 250. The key to maintaining optimal screening performance is to establish standardized protocols for biomarker measurements and regular biomarker quality assessment, as inaccurate measurement can affect screening performance. Tools frequently used to assess quality control include the cumulative sum and target plot. Cumulative sum is a sensitive method to detect small shifts over time, and point of shift can be easily identified. Target plot is a tool to evaluate deviation from the expected multiple of median and the expected median of standard deviation. Target plot is easy to interpret and visualize. However, it is insensitive to detecting small deviations. Adherence to well-defined protocols for the measurements of mean arterial pressure, uterine artery pulsatility index, and placental growth factor is required. This article summarizes the existing literature on the different methods, recommendations by professional organizations, quality assessment of different components of risk assessment, and clinical implementation of the first trimester screening for preeclampsia.

Validation and development of models using clinical, biochemical and ultrasound markers for predicting pre-eclampsia: an individual participant data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Pre-eclampsia is a leading cause of maternal and perinatal mortality and morbidity. Early identification of women at risk is needed to plan management.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the performance of existing pre-eclampsia prediction models and to develop and validate models for pre-eclampsia using individual participant data meta-analysis. We also estimated the prognostic value of individual markers.

DESIGN

This was an individual participant data meta-analysis of cohort studies.

SETTING

Source data from secondary and tertiary care.

PREDICTORS

We identified predictors from systematic reviews, and prioritised for importance in an international survey.

PRIMARY OUTCOMES

Early-onset (delivery at < 34 weeks' gestation), late-onset (delivery at ≥ 34 weeks' gestation) and any-onset pre-eclampsia.

ANALYSIS

We externally validated existing prediction models in UK cohorts and reported their performance in terms of discrimination and calibration. We developed and validated 12 new models based on clinical characteristics, clinical characteristics and biochemical markers, and clinical characteristics and ultrasound markers in the first and second trimesters. We summarised the data set-specific performance of each model using a random-effects meta-analysis. Discrimination was considered promising for C-statistics of ≥ 0.7, and calibration was considered good if the slope was near 1 and calibration-in-the-large was near 0. Heterogeneity was quantified using I ² and τ². A decision curve analysis was undertaken to determine the clinical utility (net benefit) of the models. We reported the unadjusted prognostic value of individual predictors for pre-eclampsia as odds ratios with 95% confidence and prediction intervals.

RESULTS

The International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications network comprised 78 studies (3,570,993 singleton pregnancies) identified from systematic reviews of tests to predict pre-eclampsia. Twenty-four of the 131 published prediction models could be validated in 11 UK cohorts. Summary C-statistics were between 0.6 and 0.7 for most models, and calibration was generally poor owing to large between-study heterogeneity, suggesting model overfitting. The clinical utility of the models varied between showing net harm to showing minimal or no net benefit. The average discrimination for IPPIC models ranged between 0.68 and 0.83. This was highest for the second-trimester clinical characteristics and biochemical markers model to predict early-onset pre-eclampsia, and lowest for the first-trimester clinical characteristics models to predict any pre-eclampsia. Calibration performance was heterogeneous across studies. Net benefit was observed for International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications first and second-trimester clinical characteristics and clinical characteristics and biochemical markers models predicting any pre-eclampsia, when validated in singleton nulliparous women managed in the UK NHS. History of hypertension, parity, smoking, mode of conception, placental growth factor and uterine artery pulsatility index had the strongest unadjusted associations with pre-eclampsia.

LIMITATIONS

Variations in study population characteristics, type of predictors reported, too few events in some validation cohorts and the type of measurements contributed to heterogeneity in performance of the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications models. Some published models were not validated because model predictors were unavailable in the individual participant data.

CONCLUSION

For models that could be validated, predictive performance was generally poor across data sets. Although the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications models show good predictive performance on average, and in the singleton nulliparous population, heterogeneity in calibration performance is likely across settings.

FUTURE WORK

Recalibration of model parameters within populations may improve calibration performance. Additional strong predictors need to be identified to improve model performance and consistency. Validation, including examination of calibration heterogeneity, is required for the models we could not validate.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42015029349.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 72. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

INTERGROWTH-21 Identifies High Prevalence of Low Symphysis-Fundal Height in Indigenous Pregnant Women Experiencing Multiple Infections, Nutrient Deficiencies, and Inflammation: The Maternal Infections, Nutrient Deficiencies, and Inflammation (MINDI) Cohort

BACKGROUND

In the absence of ultrasound, symphysis-fundal height (SFH) can assess maternal-fetal well-being as it is associated with gestational age, fetal weight, and amniotic fluid volume. However, other modifiers of SFH, including maternal infections, nutrient deficiencies, and inflammation (MINDI), have not been widely explored.

OBJECTIVES

Our objectives were 2-fold: 1) to assess prevalence of low SFH in indigenous Panamanian women using both Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO) and INTERGROWTH-21 standards and 2) to explore associations of SFH with maternal health indicators: infections (oral, skin, urogenital, nematode infections), nutrient deficiencies [protein and iron indicators (ferritin, serum iron, serum transferrin receptor, hepcidin), folate, and vitamins A, D, and B-12], and inflammation [leukocytes, C-reactive protein (CRP), cytokines].

METHODS

For this cross-sectional study, low-SFH-for-gestational-age was assessed using PAHO and INTERGROWTH <10th centile in 174 women at ≥16 weeks of gestation. Bootstrapping selected MINDI variables for inclusion in multivariable fractional polynomial (MFP) logistic regressions for low SFH. Associations of MINDI variables with hepcidin were also investigated.

RESULTS

Prevalence of low SFH was 8% using PAHO, but using INTERGROWTH, 50.6% had SFH <10th centile, including 37.9% <3rd centile. Both PAHO-SFH <10th centile and INTERGROWTH-SFH <3rd centile were associated with higher hepcidin (OR = 1.12, P = 0.008, and OR = 3.04, P = 0.001, respectively) and with lower TNF-α (OR = 0.73, P = 0.012, and OR = 0.93, P = 0.015, respectively). Wood-smoke exposure increased the odds of PAHO-SFH <10th centile (OR = 1.19, P = 0.009), whereas higher BMI decreased the odds of INTERGROWTH-SFH <3rd centile (OR = 0.87, P = 0.012). Lower pulse pressure (OR = 0.90, P = 0.009) and lower inflammatory responses [lower lymphocytes (OR = 0.21, P = 0.026), IL-17 (OR = 0.89, P = 0.011)] distinguished SFH <3rd centile from SFH ≥3rd to <10th centiles using INTERGROWTH-21 standards. The MFP regression for hepcidin controlling for SFH (adjusted R 2 = 0.40, P = 0.001) revealed associations with indicators of inflammation (CRP, P < 0.0001; IL-17, P = 0.012), acidic urinary pH (P = 0.008), and higher intake of supplements (P = 0.035).

CONCLUSIONS

Associations of low SFH with MINDI variables, including hepcidin, highlight its potential for early detection of multicausal in utero growth faltering.

Predictive Performance of Serum β-hCG MoM Levels for Preeclampsia Screening: A Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the present study was to investigate the predictive value of using the multiple of the median (MoM) of β-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) levels in patients with preeclampsia (PE) and healthy pregnant women.

METHODS

Electronic databases including PubMed, EBSCO, Ovid, Web of Science, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), SinoMed, Wangfang and the Weipu Journal were searched up to May 31, 2020. Two reviewers independently selected the articles and extracted data on study characteristics, quality and results. A random-effects model was employed, and standardized mean difference and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. Twenty-one case-control studies were analyzed in the present meta-analysis, including a total of 2,266 cases and 25,872 healthy controls.

RESULTS

Women who were diagnosed with PE were found to have higher early second-trimester levels of serum β-hCG MoM compared with healthy controls, although the levels in the first trimester were not significantly different. Ethnicity subgroup analysis demonstrated that the MoM of β-hCG serum levels was significantly higher in PE patients in both Asian and Caucasian populations during the early second trimester.

CONCLUSION

The MoM of β-hCG serum levels was found to be a valuable clinical indicator for predicting PE in the early second trimester, but had little predictive value in the first trimester. However, further assessment of the predictive capacity of β-hCG within larger, diverse populations is required.

Metabolomics for prediction of hypertension in pregnancy: a systematic review and meta-analysis protocol

INTRODUCTION

Hypertension is a very important cause of maternal morbidity and mortality worldwide, despite efforts on prevention. The lack of a tool to provide effective and early prediction of hypertension for a high-risk group may contribute to improving maternal and fetal outcomes. Metabolomics has figured out as a promised technology to contribute to the improvement of hypertension in pregnancy prediction.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Our primary outcome is hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. A detailed systematic literature search will be performed in electronic databases PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, Web of Science, Latin America and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature, Scientific Electronic Library Online, Health Technology Assessment and Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects using controlled terms 'pre-eclampsia', 'hypertensive disorders', 'metabolomics' and 'prediction' (and their variations). Studies from the latest 20 years will be included, except case reports, reviews, cross-sectional studies, letter to editors, expert opinions, commentaries papers or non-human research. If possible, we will perform a meta-analysis. Two peer-reviewers will independently perform the search and in cases of discordance, a third reviewer will be consulted.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

As a systematic review, ethics approval is not required. The results of this review will present the current use and performance of metabolomics for predicting gestational hypertension. Such data could potentially guide future studies and interventions to improve existing prediction models.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42018097409.

First trimester secreted Frizzled-Related Protein 4 and other adipokine serum concentrations in women developing gestational diabetes mellitus

Background

The aim of this study was to evaluate whether soluble frizzled-related protein 4 (sFRP4) concentration in the first trimester of pregnancy is individually, or in combination with Leptin, Chemerin and/or Adiponectin, associated with the development of gestational diabetes (GDM).

Methods

In a nested case-control study, 50 women with GDM who spontaneously conceived and delivered a live-born infant were matched with a total of 100 uncomplicated singleton control pregnancies based on body mass index (± 2 kg/m²), gestational age at sampling (exact day) and maternal age (± 2 years). In serum samples, obtained between 70–90 days gestational age, sFRP4, Chemerin, Leptin and Adiponectin concentrations were determined by ELISA. Statistical comparisons were performed using univariate and multi-variate logistic regression analysis after logarithmic transformation of the concentrations. Discrimination of the models was assessed by the area under the curve (AUC).

Results

First trimester sFRP4 concentrations were significantly increased in GDM cases (2.04 vs 1.93 ng/ml; p<0.05), just as Chemerin (3.19 vs 3.15 ng/ml; p<0.05) and Leptin (1.44 vs 1.32 ng/ml; p<0.01). Adiponectin concentrations were significantly decreased (2.83 vs 2.94 ng/ml; p<0.01) in GDM cases. Further analysis only showed a weak, though significant, correlation of sFRP4 with Chemerin (R² = 0.124; p<0.001) and Leptin (R² = 0.145; p<0.001), and Chemerin with Leptin (R² = 0.282; p<0.001) in the control group. In a multivariate logistic regression model of these four markers, only Adiponectin showed to be significantly associated with GDM (odds ratio 0.12, 95%CI 0.02–0.68). The AUC of this model was 0.699 (95%CI 0.605–0.793).

Conclusion

In the first trimester of pregnancy, a multi-marker model with sFRP4, Leptin, Chemerin and Adiponectin is associated with the development of GDM. Therefore, this panel seems to be an interesting candidate to further evaluate for prediction of GDM in a prospective study.

External validation of prognostic models predicting pre-eclampsia: individual participant data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Pre-eclampsia is a leading cause of maternal and perinatal mortality and morbidity. Early identification of women at risk during pregnancy is required to plan management. Although there are many published prediction models for pre-eclampsia, few have been validated in external data. Our objective was to externally validate published prediction models for pre-eclampsia using individual participant data (IPD) from UK studies, to evaluate whether any of the models can accurately predict the condition when used within the UK healthcare setting.

METHODS

IPD from 11 UK cohort studies (217,415 pregnant women) within the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications (IPPIC) pre-eclampsia network contributed to external validation of published prediction models, identified by systematic review. Cohorts that measured all predictor variables in at least one of the identified models and reported pre-eclampsia as an outcome were included for validation. We reported the model predictive performance as discrimination (C-statistic), calibration (calibration plots, calibration slope, calibration-in-the-large), and net benefit. Performance measures were estimated separately in each available study and then, where possible, combined across studies in a random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Of 131 published models, 67 provided the full model equation and 24 could be validated in 11 UK cohorts. Most of the models showed modest discrimination with summary C-statistics between 0.6 and 0.7. The calibration of the predicted compared to observed risk was generally poor for most models with observed calibration slopes less than 1, indicating that predictions were generally too extreme, although confidence intervals were wide. There was large between-study heterogeneity in each model's calibration-in-the-large, suggesting poor calibration of the predicted overall risk across populations. In a subset of models, the net benefit of using the models to inform clinical decisions appeared small and limited to probability thresholds between 5 and 7%.

CONCLUSIONS

The evaluated models had modest predictive performance, with key limitations such as poor calibration (likely due to overfitting in the original development datasets), substantial heterogeneity, and small net benefit across settings. The evidence to support the use of these prediction models for pre-eclampsia in clinical decision-making is limited. Any models that we could not validate should be examined in terms of their predictive performance, net benefit, and heterogeneity across multiple UK settings before consideration for use in practice.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO ID: CRD42015029349 .

Circulating pregnancy hormone relaxin as a first trimester biomarker for preeclampsia

OBJECTIVE

Preeclampsia, a multi-system hypertensive disorder, is associated with perturbations in the maternal cardiovascular system during early pregnancy. The corpus luteal hormone relaxin, a potent vasodilator, may contribute to physiological circulatory changes especially in early gestation when circulating levels are highest. This study investigated whether first trimester circulating relaxin may be a suitable biomarker for the early prediction of preeclampsia.

METHODS

Relaxin was initially measured in first-trimester samples of women who developed late-onset preeclamptic (LO-PE; delivery ≥ 34 weeks; n = 33) and uncomplicated pregnancies (n = 25) in Pittsburgh, USA. Subsequently, to expand the group numbers, relaxin was measured in women who developed LO-PE (n = 95), early-onset preeclamptic (EO-PE; delivery < 34 weeks; n = 57), and uncomplicated pregnancies (n = 469) in Utrecht, the Netherlands.

RESULTS

In the Pittsburgh subjects, low relaxin levels (lowest centile: <p10) showed an adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 5.29 (95%CI 1.10-25.5) for LO-PE. In the Utrecht population, low relaxin levels (<p10) demonstrated adjusted ORs of 1.45 (95%CI 0.54-3.90) and 2.03 (95%CI 1.06-3.88) for EO-PE and LO-PE respectively, the latter increasing to an adjusted OR of 3.18 (95%CI 1.41-7.20) when newborn weight was < 10%. Serum relaxin concentrations slightly improved the detection rate of a previously derived prediction model for LO-PE from 42.5% to 45.1% at a fixed 10% false-positive rate.

CONCLUSION

Relaxin shows little improvement in the performance of first trimester prediction models, which does not support its clinical implementation as a biomarker. Although this study was only correlational, the results point to a possible pathophysiologic role for low relaxin levels in pregnancies that later develop LO-PE.

Identification of High-Risk Pregnancies in a Remote Setting Using Ambulatory Blood Pressure: The MINDI Cohort

Background: Ambulatory blood pressure is a potential tool for early detection of complications during pregnancy, but its utility in impoverished settings has not been assessed. This cross-sectional study aimed to determine whether maternal infections, nutrient deficiencies and inflammation (MINDI) were associated with four measures of maternal blood pressure (BP) and to determine their association with symphysis-fundal-height (SFH). Methods: Environmental and dietary factors, intake of iron and a multiple-nutrient supplement (MNS), markers of inflammation, protein, anemia, folate, vitamins B₁₂, A and D status, and urogenital, skin, oral and intestinal nematode infections were measured in indigenous pregnant Panamanian women. Stepwise multiple linear and logistic regression models explored determinants of systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP, DBP), hypotension (SBP < 100 and DBP < 60), mean arterial pressure (MAP), elevated MAP (eMAP), and pulse pressure (PP). Associations of BP with intestinal nematodes and with SFH Z scores (≥16 wk) were also explored. Results: Despite absence of high SBP or DBP, 11.2% of women had eMAP. Furthermore, 24.1% had hypotension. Linear regression showed that hookworm infection was associated with higher SBP (P = 0.049), DBP (P = 0.046), and MAP (P = 0.016), whereas Ascaris was associated with lower DBP (P = 0.018) and MAP (P = 0.028). Trichomonas was also associated with lower SBP (P < 0.0001) and MAP (P = 0.009). The presence of Trichuris (OR: 6.7, 95% CI 1.0-44.5) and folic acid deficiency (OR: 6.9, 95% CI 1.4-33.8) were associated with increased odds of eMAP. The odds of low BP was higher in the presence of Ascaris (OR: 3.63 ± 2.28, P = 0.040), but odds were lowered by MNS (OR: 0.35 ± 0.11, P = 0.001), more intake of animal-source foods/wk (OR: 0.7, 95% CI 0.5-0.9) and by higher concentrations of IL-17 (OR: 0.87 ± 0.05, P = 0.016). Conclusion: MINDI were bi-directionally associated with blood pressure indicators. In this MINDI cohort, infections, nutrients and cytokines both raised, and lowered BP indices. The presence of eMAP identified pregnant women at risk of hypertension whereas low PP was associated with lower SFH. Therefore, MAP and PP may help in detecting women at risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes in settings with limited access to technology.

Predictive Performance of PlGF (Placental Growth Factor) for Screening Preeclampsia in Asymptomatic Women: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Preeclampsia is a systemic syndrome that seems to originate from the placenta and is associated with an imbalance between angiogenic factors in the maternal circulation. One of the well-studied and widely used factors is PlGF (placental growth factor), the levels of which drop in women destined to develop preeclampsia. This drop is known to precede the development of actual signs and symptoms of preeclampsia, thus proving to be a useful screening tool in predicting the disease. The literature varies widely in terms of the clinical usefulness of the test. We conducted a meta-analysis to study the predictive accuracy of PlGF in asymptomatic women. Our analysis included 40 studies with 3189 cases of preeclampsia and 89 498 controls. The overall predictive odds ratio of the test was 9 (6-13). Subgroup analysis evaluating various PlGF thresholds demonstrated that the predictive values were highest for PlGF levels between 80 and 120 pg/mL with a high predictive odds ratio of 25 (7-88), a sensitivity of 0.78 (95% CI, 0.67-0.86), a specificity of 0.88 (95% CI, 0.75-0.95), a positive likelihood ratio of 6.3 (95% CI, 2.7-14.7), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.26 (95% CI, 0.16-0.42). Additionally, the accuracy was higher when the test was performed after 14 weeks of gestation (OR, 10 [7-15]) and for prediction of early onset preeclampsia (OR, 18 [9-37]). We conclude that PlGF is a useful screening tool to predict preeclampsia. Nonetheless, its utility should be judged with caution and randomized controlled trials are warranted to explore if its implementation improves perinatal outcomes in asymptomatic women.

Evaluation of Serum Biomarkers and Other Diagnostic Modalities for Early Diagnosis of Preeclampsia

Objective: Preeclampsia (PE) is a multi-systemic complication of pregnancy often characterised with the onset of hypertension and proteinuria after 20 weeks of gestation. Today, PE is the leading cause of maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality worldwide. An early detection of PE would allow a chance to plan the appropriate monitoring and for clinical management to be immediately done following early detection thus making prophylactic strategies much more effective. Materials and methods: This systematic review aims to evaluate the potential of the various serum biomarkers and diagnostic modalities (uterine artery Doppler, MAP, and maternal history) available for early prediction of PE with articles included and obtained through MEDLINE Full Text, Pubmed, Science Direct, ProQuest, SAGE, Taylor and Francis Online, Google Scholar, HighWire and Elsevier ClinicalKey. Results: Ninety-five articles were found that fulfilled all of our inclusion criteria. Placental growth factor (PlGF), pregnancy associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A), soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase (sFLT) and placental protein 13 (PP-13) were the most commonly studied biomarkers. Whereas uterine Doppler scanning and Mean Arterial Pressure (MAP) were the most commonly studied out of other modalities. Conclusion: Current evidence shows serum biomarkers such as PIGF, PP-13 and sFlt yielded the best results for a single biomarker with others having conflicting results. However, a combination model with other diagnostic modalities performed better than a single biomarker. In the future, new techniques will hopefully provide sets of multiple markers, which will lead to a screening program with clinically relevant performance. However further studies are required to improve current methods.

External validation of prognostic models for preeclampsia in a Dutch multicenter prospective cohort

OBJECTIVE

To perform an external validation of all published prognostic models for first-trimester prediction of the risk of developing preeclampsia (PE).

METHODS

Women <14 weeks of pregnancy were recruited in the Netherlands. All systematically identified prognostic models for PE that contained predictors commonly available were eligible for external validation.

RESULTS

3,736 women were included; 87 (2.3%) developed PE. Calibration was poor due to overestimation. Discrimination of 9 models for LO-PE ranged from 0.58 to 0.71 and of 9 models for all PE from 0.55 to 0.75.

CONCLUSION

Only a few easily applicable prognostic models for all PE showed discrimination above 0.70, which is considered an acceptable performance.

Maternal and perinatal adverse outcomes in women with pre-eclampsia cared for at facility-level in South Africa: a prospective cohort study

Background

Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy contribute to 14% of all maternal deaths, the majority of which occur in low- and middle-income countries. The aim of the study was to describe the maternal and perinatal clinical outcomes of women with pre-eclampsia living in middle- and low-income countries.

Methods

The study was a prospective observational study of women with pre-eclampsia (n = 1547, 42 twin pregnancies) at three South African tertiary facilities. Using stepwise logistic regression model area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values, the association between maternal baseline and admission characteristics and risk of adverse outcomes was evaluated. Main outcome measures were eclampsia, kidney injury and perinatal death.

Results

In 1547 women with pre-eclampsia, 16 (1%) died, 147 (9.5%) had eclampsia, four (0.3%) had a stroke and 272 (17.6%) had kidney injury. Of the 1589 births, there were 332 (21.0%) perinatal deaths; of these, 281 (84.5%) were stillbirths. Of 1308 live births, 913 (70.0%) delivered <37 completed weeks and 544 (41.7%) delivered <34 weeks’ gestation. Young maternal age (AUROC = 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.71-0.80) and low Body Mass Index BMI (AUROC 0.65, 95% CI = 0.59-0.69) were significant predictors of eclampsia. Highest systolic blood pressure had the strongest association with kidney injury, (AUROC = 0.64, 95% CI = 0.60-0.68). Early gestation at admission was most strongly associated with perinatal death (AUROC = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.77-0.84).

Conclusions

The incidence of pre-eclampsia complications, perinatal death and preterm delivery in women referred to tertiary care in South Africa was much higher than reported in other low- and middle-income studies and despite access to tertiary care interventions. Teenage mothers and those with low BMI were at highest risk of eclampsia. This information could be used to inform guidelines, the research agenda and policy.

First trimester placental vascularization and angiogenetic factors are associated with adverse pregnancy outcome

BACKGROUND

Hypertensive disorders, fetal growth restriction and preterm birth are major obstetrical complications and are related to impaired placentation. Early identification of impaired placentation can advance clinical care by preventing or postpone adverse pregnancy outcome.

OBJECTIVES

Determine whether sonographic assessed placental vascular development and concomitant changes in inflammation- and/or angiogenesis-related serumproteins differ in the first trimester between uncomplicated pregnancies and pregnancies with adverse outcome.

STUDY DESIGN

This prospective longitudinal study defines adverse pregnancy outcome as conditions associated with impaired placentation; fetal growth restriction, hypertensive disorder, preterm birth and placental abruption. The vascularization index, flow index, vascularization flow index and placental volume were determined at 8, 10 and 12 weeks pregnancy from 64 women using 3D power Doppler. Serum levels were analyzed for Angiopoetin-1 and -2, Leptin, VEGF-R, VEGF, and EGF.

RESULTS

The vascularization index and vascular flow index increased in uneventful pregnancies with almost 50% between 8 and 12 weeks, resulting in a ∼50% higher vascularization index at 12 weeks compared to women with an adverse pregnancy outcome. Women with an adverse pregnancy outcome (n = 13) had significantly lower indices and placental volumes at all time points measured and these indices did not increase between 8 and 12 weeks. Reduced vascular development was associated with increased Angiopoietin-1 levels at 8 and 12 weeks and increased Leptin levels at 8 weeks.

CONCLUSIONS

Pregnancies with an adverse outcome caused by conditions associated with impaired placentation differ from uneventful pregnancies in having reduced placental vascularization accompanied by elevated circulating levels of Angiopoietin-1 and Leptin already in the first trimester.

Improved prediction of gestational hypertension by inclusion of placental growth factor and pregnancy associated plasma protein-a in a sample of Ghanaian women

BACKGROUND

We assessed whether adding the biomarkers Pregnancy Associated Plasma Protein-A (PAPP-A) and Placental Growth Factor (PlGF) to maternal clinical characteristics improved the prediction of a previously developed model for gestational hypertension in a cohort of Ghanaian pregnant women.

METHODS

This study was nested in a prospective cohort of 1010 pregnant women attending antenatal clinics in two public hospitals in Accra, Ghana. Pregnant women who were normotensive, at a gestational age at recruitment of between 8 and 13 weeks and provided a blood sample for biomarker analysis were eligible for inclusion. From serum, biomarkers PAPP-A and PlGF concentrations were measured by the AutoDELFIA immunoassay method and multiple of the median (MoM) values corrected for gestational age (PAPP-A and PlGF) and maternal weight (PAPP-A) were calculated. To obtain prediction models, these biomarkers were included with clinical predictors maternal weight, height, diastolic blood pressure, a previous history of gestational hypertension, history of hypertension in parents and parity in a logistic regression to obtain prediction models. The Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) was used to assess the predictive ability of the models.

RESULTS

Three hundred and seventy three women participated in this study. The area under the curve (AUC) of the model with only maternal clinical characteristics was 0.75 (0.64-0.86) and 0.89(0.73-1.00) for multiparous and primigravid women respectively. The AUCs after inclusion of both PAPP-A and PlGF were 0.82 (0.74-0.89) and 0.95 (0.87-1.00) for multiparous and primigravid women respectively.

CONCLUSION

Adding the biomarkers PAPP-A and PlGF to maternal characteristics to a prediction model for gestational hypertension in a cohort of Ghanaian pregnant women improved predictive ability. Further research using larger sample sizes in similar settings to validate these findings is recommended.

Performance of first trimester biochemical markers and mean arterial pressure in prediction of early-onset pre-eclampsia

OBJECTIVE

To develop a predictive risk model for early-onset pre-eclampsia (EO-PE) using maternal characteristics, combined screening markers, previously reported biomarkers for PE and mean arterial pressure (MAP).

METHODS

This retrospective study was conducted at Oulu University hospital between 2006 and 2010. Maternal serum from first trimester combined screening was further analyzed for alpha fetoprotein (AFP), placental growth factor (PlGF), soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-1 (sTNFR1), retinol binding protein-4 (RBP4), a disintegrin and metalloprotease-12 (ADAM12), soluble P-selectin (sP-selectin), follistatin like-3 (FSTL3), adiponectin, angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2) and sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG). First, the training sample set with 29 cases of EO-PE and 652 controls was developed to study whether these biomarkers separately or in combination with prior risk (maternal characteristics, first trimester pregnancy associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and free beta human chorionic gonadotrophin (fβ-hCG)) could be used to predict the development of EO-PE. Second, the developed risk models were validated with a test sample set of 42 EO-PE and 141 control subjects. For the test set MAP data was also available.

RESULTS

Single marker statistically significant (ANOVA p<0.05) changes between control and EO-PE pregnancies were observed with AFP, RBP4 and sTNFR1 with both training and test sample sets. Based on the test sample set performances, the best detection rate, 47% for a 10% false positive rate, was achieved with PlGF and sTNFR1 added with prior risk and MAP.

CONCLUSION

Based on our results, the best first trimester biomarkers to predict the subsequent EO-PE were AFP, PlGF, RBP4 and sTNFR1. The risk models that performed best for the prediction of EO-PE included prior risk, MAP, sTNFR1 and AFP or PlGF or RBP4.

Concomitant preterm birth and severe small-for-gestational age birth weight among infants of immigrant mothers in Ontario originating from the Philippines and East Asia: a population-based study

OBJECTIVES

Women from the Philippines form one of the largest immigrant groups to North America. Their newborns experience higher rates of preterm birth (PTB), and separately, small-for-gestational age (SGA) birth weight, compared with other East Asians. It is not known if Filipino women are at elevated risk of concomitant PTB and severe SGA (PTB-SGA), a pathological state likely reflective of placental dysfunction and neonatal morbidity.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based study of all singleton or twin live births in Ontario, from 2002 to 2011, among immigrant mothers from the Philippines (n=27 946), Vietnam (n=15 297), Hong Kong (n=5618), South Korea (n=5148) and China (n=42 517). We used modified Poisson regression to generate relative risks (RR) of PTB-SGA, defined as a birth <37 weeks' gestation and a birth weight <5th percentile. RRs were adjusted for maternal age, parity, marital status, income quintile, infant sex and twin births.

RESULTS

Relative to mothers from China (2.3 per 1000), the rate of PTB-SGA was significantly higher among infants of mothers from the Philippines (6.5 per 1000; RR 2.91, 95% CI 2.27 to 3.73), and those from Vietnam (3.7 per 1000; RR 1.68, 95% CI 1.21 to 2.34). The RR of PTB-SGA was not higher for infants of mothers from Hong Kong or South Korea.

INTERPRETATION

Among infants born to immigrant women from five East Asian birthplaces, the risk of PTB-SGA was highest among those from the Philippines. These women and their fetuses may require additional monitoring and interventions.

Validation of a first-trimester screening model for pre-eclampsia in an unselected population

OBJECTIVE

To validate the performance of a previously constructed first-trimester predictive model for pre-eclampsia (PE) in routine care of an unselected population.

METHODS

A validation cohort of 4621 consecutive women attending their routine first-trimester ultrasound examination was used to test a prediction model for PE that had been developed previously in 5170 women. The prediction model included maternal factors, uterine artery Doppler, blood pressure and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A. Model performance was evaluated using receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis and ROC curves from both cohorts were compared unpaired.

RESULTS

Among the 4203 women included in the final analysis, 169 (4.0%) developed PE, including 141 (3.4%) cases of late-onset PE and 28 (0.7%) cases of early-onset PE. For early-onset PE, the model showed an area under the ROC curve of 0.94 (95% CI, 0.88-0.99), which did not differ significantly (P = 0.37) from that obtained in the construction cohort (0.88 (95% CI, 0.78-0.99)). For late-onset PE, the final model showed an area under the ROC curve of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.66-0.77), which did not differ significantly (P = 0.49) from that obtained in the construction cohort (0.75 (95% CI, 0.67-0.82)).

CONCLUSION

The prediction model for PE achieved a similar performance to that obtained in the construction cohort when tested on a subsequent cohort of women, confirming its validity as a predictive model for PE. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Matrix metalloproteinase multiplex screening identifies increased MMP-2 urine concentrations in women predicted to develop preeclampsia

BACKGROUND

Preeclampsia, a pregnancy disorder characterized by hypertension and proteinuria, represents the leading cause of fetal and maternal morbidity and mortality in developing countries. The identification of novel and accurate biomarkers that are predictive of preeclampsia is necessary to improve the prognosis of patients with preeclampsia.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to evaluate the usefulness of nine urinary metalloproteinases to predict the risk of preeclampsia development.

METHODS

MMP-1, MMP-2, MMP-3, MMP-7, MMP-8, MMP-9, MMP-10, MMP-12 and MMP-13 were analyzed in urine (early-pregnancy) from 17 women predicted to develop preeclampsia and 48 controls using the Bio-Plex Pro-Human MMP panel (Bio-Rad, Hercules, CA).

RESULTS

Urinary MMP-2 showed differences between groups which allowed us to calculate an increased risk for PE development of up to 20 times among the study population.

CONCLUSION

Increased urinary concentration of MMP-2 at 12 and 16 weeks of gestation predicted an increased risk of developing preeclampsia in the study population.

First trimester serum placental growth factor and hyperglycosylated human chorionic gonadotropin are associated with pre-eclampsia: a case control study

Background

To study whether maternal serum hyperglycosylated human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG-h) improves first trimester prediction of pre-eclampsia when combined with placental growth factor (PlGF), pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and maternal risk factors.

Methods

Gestational-age-adjusted concentrations of hCG, hCG-h, PlGF and PAPP-A were analysed in serum samples by time-resolved immunofluorometric assays at 8–13 weeks of gestation. The case–control study included 98 women who developed pre-eclampsia, 25 who developed gestational hypertension, 41 normotensive women with small-for-gestational-age (SGA) infants and 177 controls.

Results

Of 98 women with pre-eclampsia, 24 women developed preterm pre-eclampsia (diagnosis < 37 weeks of gestation) and 13 of them had early-onset pre-eclampsia (diagnosis < 34 weeks of gestation). They had lower concentrations of PlGF, PAPP-A and proportion of hCG-h to hCG (%hCG-h) than controls. In receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis, the area under the curve (AUC) for the combination of PlGF, PAPP-A, %hCG-h, nulliparity and mean arterial blood pressure was 0.805 (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.699–0.912) for preterm pre-eclampsia and 0.870 (95% CI 0.750–0.988) for early-onset pre-eclampsia. Without %hCG-h the AUC values were 0.756 (95% CI 0.651–0.861) and 0.810 (95% CI 0.682–0.938) respectively. For prediction of gestational hypertension, the AUC for %hCG-h was 0.708 (95% CI 0.608–0.808), but for other markers the AUC values were not significant. None of the AUC values were significant for the prediction of SGA infants in normotensive women.

Conclusions

First trimester maternal serum %hCG-h tended to improve prediction of preterm and early-onset pre-eclampsia when combined with PlGF, PAPP-A and maternal risk factors.

Prediction and prevention of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy

The most common classifications of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy consist of chronic hypertension, gestational hypertension, preeclampsia (PE) and superimposed PE. A common final pathophysiology of PE is endothelial dysfunction. The most successful translational research model for explaining the cause-effect relationship in the genesis of PE is the angiogenic/angiostatic balance theory, involving soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (sFlt-1), placental growth factor (PlGF) and soluble endoglin (sEng). In a systematic review of articles on the prediction of early-onset PE using angiogenesis-related factors, we revealed that the prediction of early-onset PE in the first trimester is clinically possible, but the prediction of early-onset PE in the early third trimester might be ideal. In addition, an onset threshold or a serial approach appeared to be clinically useful for predicting the imminent onset of PE, with onset at <4 weeks after blood sampling in the second and early third trimesters, because the positive likelihood ratio was >10 and the positive predictive value was >20%. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines state that the Triage PlGF testing and Elecsys immunoassay for the sFlt-1/PlGF ratio could help to exclude PE in women with suspected PE at 20-34 weeks of gestation. Until now, we have not found any effective therapies to prevent PE. However, low-dose aspirin treatment starting at ⩽16 weeks of gestation might be associated with a marked reduction in PE. In addition, early statin treatment might prevent the occurrence of PE. Currently, a clinical trial using pravastatin for the prevention of PE is ongoing.

Pregnancy Associated Plasma Protein-A and Placental Growth Factor in a Sub-Saharan African Population: A Nested Cross-Sectional Study

Background

Baseline distributions of pregnancy disorders’ biomarkers PlGF and PAPP-A levels are primarily based on Western European populations of Caucasian ethnicity. Differences in PAPP-A and PlGF concentrations by ethnicity have been observed, with increased levels in Afro-Caribbean, East Asian, and South Asian women. Baseline concentrations of sub-Saharan African women have not been evaluated.

Objectives

To investigate PlGF and PAPP-A in a sub-Saharan African population and assess the performance of existing reference values of PAPP-A and PlGF.

Methods

A nested cross-sectional study was conducted in two public hospitals in Accra, Ghana. Out of the original 1010 women enrolled in the cohort, 398 participants were eligible for inclusion with a normotensive singleton gestation and serum samples taken between 56–97 days of pregnancy. PAPP-A and PlGF concentrations were measured with an automated immunoassay. Multiple of the median (MoM) values corrected for gestation and maternal weight for PAPP-A and PlGF were calculated using reference values of a Dutch perinatal screening laboratory based on over 10.000 samples, and PlGF manufacturer reference values, respectively.

Results

The PAPP-A median MoM was 2.34 (interquartile range (IQR) 1.24–3.97). Median PlGF MoM was 1.25 (IQR 0.95–1.80). Median MoM values for PAPP-A and PlGF tended to be slightly different for various Ghanaian ethnic subgroups.

Conclusions

PAPP-A and PlGF MoM values appear to be substantially higher in a sub-Saharan African population compared to the Caucasian or Afro-Caribbean MoM values previously reported. The difference suggests the need for a specific correction factor for this population to avoid underestimation of risk for fetal aneuploidies or placental disorders when using PAPP-A and PlGF MoM for screening purposes.

Human chorionic gonadotropin, fetal sex and risk of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy: A nested case-control study

OBJECTIVES

To assess whether human chorionic gonadotropin (HCG) and fetal sex are two independent risk factors for hypertensive pregnancy in the early second-trimester of pregnancy.

METHODS

This was a retrospective nested case-control study based on a cohort of 2521 singleton pregnancies, among whom we recruited 98 hypertensive pregnancies (subdivided into severe preeclampsia, n=34; mild preeclampsia, n=29 and gestational hypertension, n=35) and 196 normotensive pregnancies. Maternal serum HCG levels were measured at 15-20 weeks of gestation and fetal sex was determined from the neonatal record. Mann-Whitney U and chi-square tests were performed to assess differences of HCG levels and fetal sex between groups. Logistic regressions were performed to evaluate the effect of HCG and fetal sex on hypertensive pregnancy.

RESULTS

There were 35 male and 63 female fetuses in the hypertensive group, and 102 male and 94 female fetuses in the normotensive group (p=0.008). HCG (MoM) levels were significantly higher in only severe preeclamptic pregnancies (n=34) (p=0.013). There were no significant differences of the HCG (MoM) levels between male and female fetuses in each sub-group. aOR for increased maternal HCG levels and female fetus were 2.4 (95% CI: 1.434-3.954) and 2.9 (95% CI: 1.227-6.661) respectively in severe preeclamptic pregnancies compared with normotensive pregnancies.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a female preponderance in hypertensive pregnancies. Increased HCG levels and female fetus are two independent risk factors for severe preeclampsia in the early second-trimester of pregnancy.

Genetic Risk Score for Essential Hypertension and Risk of Preeclampsia

BACKGROUND

Preeclampsia is a hypertensive complication of pregnancy characterized by novel onset of hypertension after 20 weeks gestation, accompanied by proteinuria. Epidemiological evidence suggests that genetic susceptibility exists for preeclampsia; however, whether preeclampsia is the result of underlying genetic risk for essential hypertension has yet to be investigated. Based on the hypertensive state that is characteristic of preeclampsia, we aimed to determine if established genetic risk scores (GRSs) for hypertension and blood pressure are associated with preeclampsia.

METHODS

Subjects consisted of 162 preeclamptic cases and 108 normotensive pregnant controls, all of Iowa residence. Subjects' DNA was extracted from buccal swab samples and genotyped on the Affymetrix Genome-wide Human SNP Array 6.0 (Affymetrix, Santa Clara, CA). Missing genotypes were imputed using MaCH and Minimac software. GRSs were calculated for hypertension, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and mean arterial pressure (MAP) using established genetic risk loci for each outcome. Regression analyses were performed to determine the association between GRS and risk of preeclampsia. These analyses were replicated in an independent US population of 516 cases and 1,097 controls of European ancestry.

RESULTS

GRSs for hypertension, SBP, DBP, and MAP were not significantly associated with risk for preeclampsia (P > 0.189). The results of the replication analysis also yielded nonsignificant associations.

CONCLUSIONS

GRSs for hypertension and blood pressure are not associated with preeclampsia, suggesting that an underlying predisposition to essential hypertension is not on the causal pathway of preeclampsia.

Early Pregnancy Biomarkers in Pre-Eclampsia: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Pre-eclampsia (PE) complicates 2%–8% of all pregnancies and is an important cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality worldwide. In order to reduce these complications and to develop possible treatment modalities, it is important to identify women at risk of developing PE. The use of biomarkers in early pregnancy would allow appropriate stratification into high and low risk pregnancies for the purpose of defining surveillance in pregnancy and to administer interventions. We used formal methods for a systematic review and meta-analyses to assess the accuracy of all biomarkers that have been evaluated so far during the first and early second trimester of pregnancy to predict PE. We found low predictive values using individual biomarkers which included a disintegrin and metalloprotease 12 (ADAM-12), inhibin-A, pregnancy associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A), placental growth factor (PlGF) and placental protein 13 (PP-13). The pooled sensitivity of all single biomarkers was 0.40 (95% CI 0.39–0.41) at a false positive rate of 10%. The area under the Summary of Receiver Operating Characteristics Curve (SROC) was 0.786 (SE 0.02). When a combination model was used, the predictive value improved to an area under the SROC of 0.893 (SE 0.03). In conclusion, although there are multiple potential biomarkers for PE their efficacy has been inconsistent and comparisons are difficult because of heterogeneity between different studies. Therefore, there is an urgent need for high quality, large-scale multicentre research in biomarkers for PE so that the best predictive marker(s) can be identified in order to improve the management of women destined to develop PE.

Serum screening in first trimester to predict pre-eclampsia, small for gestational age and preterm delivery: systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Early assessment before the establishment of placental dysfunction has the potential to improve treatment and prognosis for clinical practice.The objective of the study is to investigate the accuracy of serum biochemical markers(Pregnancy- Associated Plasma Protein-A (PAPP-A), human Chorionic Gonadotropin (hCG), Placental Growth Factor (PlGF), Placental Protein 13 (PP13) used in first trimester serum screening in predicting preelampsia, small for gestational age (SGA) and preterm delivery.

Methods

The data sources included Medline, Embase, Cochrane library, Medion, hand searching of relevant journals, reference list checking of included articles and contact with experts. Two reviewers independently selected the articles. Two authors independently extracted data on study characteristics, quality and results.

Results

The results showed low predictive accuracy overall. For preeclampsia, the best predictor was PlGF; LR + 4.01 (3.74, 4.28), LR-(0.67, 0.64, 0.69). The predictive value of serum markers for early preeclampsia was better than that of late preeclampsia. For SGA the best predictor was PP13; LR+ 3.70 (3.39, 4.03), LR- 0.70 (0.67, 0.73). For preterm delivery, the best predictor was PP13; LR+ 4.16 (2.72, 5.61), LR- 0.56 (0.45, 0.67).

Conclusion

First trimester screening analytes have low predictive accuracy for pre-eclampsia, small for gestational age and preterm delivery. However, the predict value of first trimester analytes is not worse than that of the second trimester markers.

Upregulation of the Tim-3/Gal-9 pathway and correlation with the development of preeclampsia

OBJECTIVE

It is well documented that an imbalance in immune tolerance at the maternal-fetal interface is likely to play an essential role in the etiology of preeclampsia. However, the mechanisms underlying immune tolerance during preeclampsia are still poorly understood. Tim-3, a Th1-specific cell surface molecule, is a relatively newly described molecule with important immunological functions. It can regulate Th1 responses with its ligand galectin-9 (Gal-9), and has become an attractive candidate for exploring the pathogenesis of preeclampsia.

STUDY DESIGN

Twenty normal pregnancies and 20 preeclamptic pregnancies were enrolled in the present study. We examined the expression and function of Tim-3/Gal-9 in decidual tissue at the RNA and protein levels. In order to analyze their correlation with the development of preeclampsia, we measured the expression of Tim-3 on peripheral blood leukocytes using flow cytometry. IFN-γ, IL-10, and IL-17 in the peripheral blood plasma were measured by ELISA.

RESULTS

Tim-3/Gal-9 was upregulated in decidual tissue of preeclamptic vs. normotensive pregnancies. There was a significantly increased Th1 and Th17 response in PE as demonstrated by the upregulated levels of IFN-γ/IL-17, whereas IL-10 secreted by Th2 cells was sharply reduced.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study showed that an abnormal Tim-3/Gal-9 pathway was able to facilitate the development of preeclampsia. Our data uncovered a novel mechanism by which the Tim-3/Gal-9 pathway regulates immune responses, and we now identify this pathway as a potential therapeutic target in preeclampsia.

Serum levels of ET-1, M30, and angiopoietins-1 and -2 in HELLP syndrome and preeclampsia compared to controls

PURPOSE

We aimed to compare the serum levels of ET-1, M30, and Angs-1 and -2 in patients with preeclampsia or HELLP syndrome, and normal controls.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study of 74 pregnant women, serum levels of ET-1, M30, and Angs-1 and -2 were measured in preeclamptic patients with or without HELLP syndrome. 74 pregnant women; 37 had healthy pregnancies, 25 had preeclampsia (PE), and 12 had HELLP syndrome.

RESULTS

The age, body mass index, gravidity, and parity of patients with normal pregnancy, PE, and HELLP syndrome were comparable (p > 0.05). In HELLP syndrome, compared to healthy or preeclamptic pregnancies, platelet count was lower (p < 0.05) and the values of hepatic function tests were higher (p < 0.05). In HELLP syndrome, ET-1, M30, and Ang-2 were higher compared to healthy or preeclamptic pregnancies (p < 0.05); however, they increased in preeclamptic pregnancies compared to healthy pregnancies though not significant (p > 0.05). In PE or HELLP syndrome, Ang-1 was higher compared to a healthy pregnancy (p < 0.05); however, in HELLP syndrome, it was also higher than in PE though not significant (p > 0.05). We found no significant correlation among these biomarkers and hematological and biochemical parameters (p > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

For the diagnosis of HELLP syndrome, increased levels of ET-1, M30, and Angs-1 and -2 appear as promising biomarkers after determination of their standardized threshold levels after further studies. As an apoptosis-related biomarker, serum M30 level has a merit to be the most promising test for prediction or differential diagnosis of HELLP syndrome in PE patients.

Combination of PAPPA, fhCGβ, AFP, PlGF, sTNFR1, and Maternal Characteristics in Prediction of Early-onset Preeclampsia

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the efficacy of first-trimester markers-pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPPA), free human chorionic gonadotropin β (fhCGβ), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), placental growth factor (PlGF), and soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-1 (sTNFR1) together with maternal characteristics (MC) for prediction of early-onset preeclampsia (EOPE).

METHODS

During 2005-2010, the abovementioned biomarkers were analyzed with logistic regression analysis in 64 EOPE and 752 control subjects to determine whether these biomarkers separately and in combination with MC would predict development of EOPE.

RESULTS

PAPPA, fhCGβ, and PlGF levels were lower, whereas AFP and sTNFR1 levels were higher in mothers with EOPE compared to controls. The combination of all markers with MC (age, weight, and smoking status) detected 48% of the mothers with EOPE, with a 10% false-positive rate (FPR).

CONCLUSIONS

First-trimester maternal serum levels of PAPPA, fhCGβ, AFP, PlGF, and sTNFR1, together with MC, are predictive of development of subsequent EOPE. These markers, along with MC, form a suitable panel for predicting EOPE.

First-Trimester Serum Acylcarnitine Levels to Predict Preeclampsia: A Metabolomics Approach

OBJECTIVE

To expand the search for preeclampsia (PE) metabolomics biomarkers through the analysis of acylcarnitines in first-trimester maternal serum.

METHODS

This was a nested case-control study using serum from pregnant women, drawn between 8 and 14 weeks of gestational age. Metabolites were measured using an UPLC-MS/MS based method. Concentrations were compared between controls (n = 500) and early-onset- (EO-) PE (n = 68) or late-onset- (LO-) PE (n = 99) women. Metabolites with a false discovery rate <10% for both EO-PE and LO-PE were selected and added to prediction models based on maternal characteristics (MC), mean arterial pressure (MAP), and previously established biomarkers (PAPPA, PLGF, and taurine).

RESULTS

Twelve metabolites were significantly different between EO-PE women and controls, with effect levels between -18% and 29%. For LO-PE, 11 metabolites were significantly different with effect sizes between -8% and 24%. Nine metabolites were significantly different for both comparisons. The best prediction model for EO-PE consisted of MC, MAP, PAPPA, PLGF, taurine, and stearoylcarnitine (AUC = 0.784). The best prediction model for LO-PE consisted of MC, MAP, PAPPA, PLGF, and stearoylcarnitine (AUC = 0.700).

CONCLUSION

This study identified stearoylcarnitine as a novel metabolomics biomarker for EO-PE and LO-PE. Nevertheless, metabolomics-based assays for predicting PE are not yet suitable for clinical implementation.

First trimester placental retinol-binding protein 4 (RBP4) and pregnancy-associated placental protein A (PAPP-A) in the prediction of early-onset severe pre-eclampsia

OBJECTIVE

In a retrospective case-control study, we examined the levels of placental retinol-binding protein 4 (RBP4) and pregnancy-associated placental protein A (PAPP-A) in first-trimester maternal serum samples as well as maternal characteristics to predict early-onset and severe pre-eclampsia.

METHODS

In this retrospective case-control study, we identified females who delivered a singleton pregnancy on or after 24 weeks' gestation from 2003 to 2010 at Oulu University Hospital and had a retrospective first trimester trisomy screening, including serum PAPP-A measurement. Within this cohort, we identified 65 females who experienced early onset pre-eclampsia (EO-PE) and 742 controls who had uncomplicated deliveries. Retrospectively, we thawed all previously collected serum samples to measure placental retinol binding protein 4 (RBP4). PAPP-A and RBP4 were measured using automatic immunoassay systems and converted to multiples of the median (MoMs). Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine whether these biomarkers separately and in combination with maternal characteristics (maternal age, weight and smoking status) can be used to predict the development of early onset pre-eclampsia.

RESULTS

The expected log(10) PAPP-A concentration and the expected log(10) RBP4 concentration in the control group were both affected by maternal weight and smoking status. The expected log(10) PAPP-A concentration was also affected by gestational age (GA). RBP4 levels in first-trimester serum were significantly higher in females who subsequently developed EO-PE outcome compared to those with normal pregnancy outcome (1.14 vs. 1.01 MoMs, p<0.0001). Maternal serum PAPP-A levels from the same pregnancy period were significantly lower in the EO-PE group compared to controls (0.80 vs. 1.05 MoMs, p=0.005). The risk model including maternal characteristics with PAPP-A log(10) MoM and RBP4 log(10) MoM had the best EO-PE prediction ability. It detected 34% (23%-46%) of females with subsequent EO-PE with a 10% false positive rate.

CONCLUSION

This study showed that first-trimester maternal serum RBP4 was significantly increased and that PAPP-A decreased in pregnancies that ended in EO-PE compared to normal pregnancies. Thus, these markers may be useful members in a panel of markers for the early detection of early-onset and severe pre-eclampsia.

Pulsatility index in combination with biomarkers or mean arterial pressure for the prediction of pre-eclampsia: Systematic literature review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Our objective was to perform a meta-analysis examining the sensitivity of pulsatility index (PI) and various biomarkers and PI and mean arterial pressure (MAP) for the prediction of pre-eclampsia.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

PubMed, CENTRAL, and Embase databases were searched from inception until 8 May 2014 using combinations of the search terms: pre-eclampsia, ultrasonography, pregnancy, biomarker, mean arterial pressure, placental protein 13, pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A, placental growth factor, activin A, inhibin A, pulsatility index. The pooled sensitivity of PI + biomarkers and PI + MAP were calculated, and reported with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Fifteen studies were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity of all biomarkers for the prediction of pre-eclampsia was 0.669 (95% CI 0.610-0.723), for the prediction of early-onset pre-eclampsia was 0.830 (95% CI 0.794-0.861), and for the prediction of late-onset pre-eclampsia was 0.564 (95% CI 0.499-0.627). Similarly, the predictive ability of PI + MAP for early-onset pre-eclampsia was good (sensitivity 0.894), while that for late-onset was poor (sensitivity 0.570).

CONCLUSION

The combination of PI and different biomarkers or MAP exhibits a good predictive ability for early-onset pre-eclampsia, and poor predictive ability for late-onset pre-eclampsia.

The first trimester: prediction and prevention of the great obstetrical syndromes

A number of groups are currently examining the potential of screening for pre-eclampsia and gestational diabetes at 12 weeks' gestation. This can be performed at the time of combined first-trimester screening for aneuploidy using a similar method of regression analysis to combine multiple demographic and investigative factors. At present, research into the prediction of pre-eclampsia is more robust and is associated with the potential for therapeutic intervention that can reduce the prevalence of early-onset pre-eclampsia and improve maternal and neonatal outcomes.

First-trimester prediction of pre-eclampsia: external validity of algorithms in a prospectively enrolled cohort

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the performance of published first-trimester prediction algorithms for pre-eclampsia (PE) in a prospectively enrolled cohort of women.

METHOD

A MEDLINE search identified first-trimester screening-prediction algorithms for early-onset (requiring delivery < 34 weeks) and late-onset (requiring delivery ≥ 34 weeks) PE. Maternal variables, ultrasound parameters and biomarkers were determined prospectively in singleton pregnancies enrolled between 9 and 14 weeks. Prediction algorithms were applied to this population to calculate predicted probabilities for PE. The performance of the prediction algorithms was compared with that in the original publication and evaluated for factors explaining differences in prediction.

RESULTS

Six early and two late PE prediction algorithms were applicable to 871-2962 women, depending on the variables required. The prevalence of early PE was 1.0-1.2% and of late PE was 4.1-5.0% in these patient subsets. One early PE prediction algorithm performed better than in the original publication (80% detection rate (DR) of early PE for 10% false-positive rate (FPR)); the remaining five prediction algorithms underperformed (29-53% DR). Prediction algorithms for late PE also underperformed (18-31% DR, 10% FPR). Applying the screening cut-offs based on the highest Youden index probability scores correctly detected 40-80% of women developing early PE and 71-82% who developed late PE. Exclusion of patients on first-trimester aspirin resulted in DRs of 40-83% and 65-82% for early and late PE, respectively.

CONCLUSION

First-trimester prediction algorithms for PE share a high negative predictive value if applied to an external population but underperform in their ability to correctly identify women who develop PE. Further research is required to determine the factors responsible for the suboptimal external validity.