Externally validated prediction models for pre-eclampsia: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the performance of existing externally validated prediction models for pre-eclampsia (PE) (specifically, any-onset, early-onset, late-onset and preterm PE).

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted in five databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, Emcare, CINAHL and Maternity & Infant Care Database) and using Google Scholar/reference search to identify studies based on the Population, Index prediction model, Comparator, Outcome, Timing and Setting (PICOTS) approach until 20 May 2023. We extracted data using the CHARMS checklist and appraised the risk of bias using the PROBAST tool. A meta-analysis of discrimination and calibration performance was conducted when appropriate.

RESULTS

Twenty-three studies reported 52 externally validated prediction models for PE (one preterm, 20 any-onset, 17 early-onset and 14 late-onset PE models). No model had the same set of predictors. Fifteen any-onset PE models were validated externally once, two were validated twice and three were validated three times, while the Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) competing-risks model for preterm PE prediction was validated widely in 16 different settings. The most common predictors were maternal characteristics (prepregnancy body mass index, prior PE, family history of PE, chronic medical conditions and ethnicity) and biomarkers (uterine artery pulsatility index and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A). The FMF model for preterm PE (triple test plus maternal factors) had the best performance, with a pooled area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve (AUC) of 0.90 (95% prediction interval (PI), 0.76-0.96), and was well calibrated. The other models generally had poor-to-good discrimination performance (median AUC, 0.66 (range, 0.53-0.77)) and were overfitted on external validation. Apart from the FMF model, only two models that were validated multiple times for any-onset PE prediction, which were based on maternal characteristics only, produced reasonable pooled AUCs of 0.71 (95% PI, 0.66-0.76) and 0.73 (95% PI, 0.55-0.86).

CONCLUSIONS

Existing externally validated prediction models for any-, early- and late-onset PE have limited discrimination and calibration performance, and include inconsistent input variables. The triple-test FMF model had outstanding discrimination performance in predicting preterm PE in numerous settings, but the inclusion of specialized biomarkers may limit feasibility and implementation outside of high-resource settings. © 2023 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Magnitude and Factors Associated with Gestational Weight Gain Adequacy among Pregnant Women in South Gondar Zone, Northwest Ethiopia

Background

Weight gain during pregnancy depends on the maternal prepregnancy weight and height. Inappropriate weight gain has negative consequences, including the health care system and society because of its adverse birth outcomes.

Objective

This study aimed to assess the magnitude and factors associated with gestational weight gain in Northwest Ethiopia.

Methods

From September 2018 to June 2019, a community-based prospective follow-up study was conducted in Northwest Ethiopia. A total of 422 pregnant women were followed from conception to delivery and the data were collected using a multistage sampling technique. Stata 14 standard edition (SE) software was used for data analysis. Multinomial logistic regression was used to determine the relationship between dependent and independent variables. P value of ≤0.05 was used to determine statistical significance.

Results

Majority of the participants had normal weight gain [65.12%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 60.08, 69.85]. Besides this, the rate of inadequate and overadequate weight gain was 21.53% (95% CI: 17.60, 26.05) and 13.35% (95% CI: 10.22, 17.25), respectively. Inadequate weight gain was linked to meal frequency [adjusted odd ratio (AOR): 0.52, 95% CI: 0.28, 0.97], targeted supplementary feeding program (TSFP) enrollment (AOR: 2.47; 95% CI: 1.35, 4.50), parity (AOR: 0.18; 95% CI: 0.05, 0.62), and alcohol consumption history (AOR: 0.47; 95% CI: 0.25, 0.88), whereas overadequate weight gain was associated with residency (AOR: 5.22; 95% CI: 2.43, 11.22) and TSFP status (AOR: 2.22; 95% CI: 1.08, 4.57).

Conclusions

This study revealed a notable magnitude of both inadequate and overadequate weight gain. It found that good meal frequency, alcohol consumption, parity, and TSFP enrollment were associated with a reduced risk of inadequate weight gain during pregnancy. In addition, the study identified residence and TSFP enrollment as factors linked to overadequate weight gain during pregnancy.

Neonatal outcomes of preterm neonates and its predictors in Ethiopian public hospitals: Multicenter prospective follow-up study

Introduction

Preterm birth remains the most significant clinical and public health encounter. Preterm infant outcomes pose key evidence for clinicians and policymakers and are extensively used to set clinical and policy verdicts to improve services. It is necessary to conduct the outcomes of neonates frequently, as it varies from place to place and even from time to time in a similar place. There is limited literature in Ethiopia about preterm neonates' outcomes and their predictors.

Objective

This study aimed to assess the neonatal outcomes of preterm neonates and their predictors in South Gondar zone public hospitals, Northwest Ethiopia, 2021.

Methods

A prospective observational study was employed on 462 preterm neonates in South Gondar Zone Public Hospitals. The data were entered into Epidata 4.6 and analyzed using STATA version 16/MP software. A parametric log-normal survival model was used to identify possible predictors for preterm neonate death. Statistical significance was declared at a P-value less than 0.05.

Result

The overall preterm survival rate was 71.1% (95% CI: 66.7, 75.1). Thirty-six percent of preterm neonates were diagnosed with sepsis. One-fourth of the neonates had respiratory distress syndrome. Gestational age greater than 34 weeks (β = 1.04; 95% CI: 0.53, 1.56), respiratory distress syndrome (β = 0.85; 95% CI: 0.49, 1.22), body mass index (β = -1.34; 95% CI: -1.87, -0.80), non-union marital status (β = -0.71; 95% CI: -1.34, -0.09), multiple pregnancies (β = -0.66; 95% CI: -0.99-0.32), multiparous (β = 0.35; 95% CI: 0.01, 0.69), hypothermia (β = -1.19; 95% CI: -1.76, -0.62), Kangaroo Mother Care (β = -1.9; 95% CI: -2.34, -1.41) and non-cephalic presentation (β = -1.23; 95% CI: -1.99,-0.46) were significant predictors.

Conclusion

In this study, the preterm survival rate was low. Gestational age greater than 34 weeks, no respiratory distress syndrome, and multiparous mothers were positively associated with the survival of preterm neonates. Though, high pre-pregnancy maternal body mass index, non-union marital status of mothers, multiple pregnancies, hypothermia, Kangaroo mother care is not given, and non-cephalic presentation were negatively associated. A significant focus should be given to implementing WHO recommendations on preventing and caring for preterm births.

Micronutrient intake status and associated factors in children aged 6-23 months in sub-Saharan Africa

Micronutrient deficiency has serious consequences across all ages worldwide, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Poor micronutrient (MN) consumption among children remains a major public health concern in many countries. Low literacy, poor diets, a lack of access to healthcare, and insufficient agricultural productivity made proper micronutrient consumption difficult, despite numerous interventions. Thus, this research aimed to determine the adequate intake of MNs among 6-23 months of age children in sub-Saharan Africa. Initially, a two-stage stratified sampling technique was applied for the selected recent demographic and health survey data. The data source was the (2015-2020) standard demographic and health surveys (DHS) among 20 Sub-Saharan African countries. Micronutrient intake status (the outcome variable) was determined using either food rich in Vitamin A or iron consumed within the previous 24 hr or multiple micronutrient powder or iron supplementation within the previous 07 days or vitamin A supplementation or deworming within 06 months. A generalized linear mixed model based on Modified Poisson regression and robust error variance was used to identify factors associated with children's adequate micronutrient intake. An adjusted Prevalence Ratio (aPR) with a 95% confidence interval was used to identify factors, strength and direction of the association. The total samples of 65,187 children aged 6-23 months were included. Of all, 73.99% (95% CI: 73.65, 74.32) of children had adequate intake of micronutrients. Maternal education (primary (aPR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.06) and secondary (aPR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.09)), father's education (primary (aPR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.05) and secondary (aPR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.06)), occupational status of the mother (aPR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.06), pregnancy interval (aPR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.95, 0.99), exclusive breastfeeding status (aPR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.82, 0.85), birthweight (average (aPR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.05) and larger than average (aPR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.06)), multiple/twin at birth (aPR = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.91, 0.98), child age (aPR = 1.22, 95% CI: 1.19, 1.25), number of children in home (aPR = 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.03), ANC utilization (aPR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.15, 1.27), place of birth (AOR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.91, 0.95), rich households (aPR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.05), and countries from Central (aPR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.09), South Africa (aPR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.11), and West African (aPR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.92, 0.99) were associated with level of micronutrients intake status. The prevalence of adequate intake of MN was considerable. Variables at the child, family and community levels were associated with adequate intake of micronutrients. Consequently, stakeholders' involvement is required in healthcare and community settings.

The pooled estimate of the total fertility rate in sub-Saharan Africa using recent (2010-2018) Demographic and Health Survey data

Background

Even though the total fertility rate (TFR) has decreased significantly over the past decades in many countries, it has remained stable in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. However, there is variation among the sub-regions and inhabitants of SSA. Therefore, this study aimed to conduct a meta-analysis of demographic and health surveys (DHS) to estimate the pooled level of TFR in SSA and to depict sub-regional and inhabitant differences.

Methods

The data source for this study was the standard Demographic and Health Survey datasets of 33 sub-Saharan African countries, accessed through www.meaasuredhs.com between 2010 and 2018. The point estimate of the total fertility rate with its corresponding standard error in each sub-Saharan African country was estimated using the DHS.rates R package. Using the point estimate of the TFR with the standard error of each country, the pooled estimate of the TFR was generated by the metan STATA command.

Results

The study comprised 1,324,466 live births in total. The pooled estimate of sub-Saharan Africa's overall fertility rate was five children per woman (95% CI: 4.63-5.37). Consequently, the pooled estimate of total fertility for people living in urban and rural areas was 3.90 (95% CI: 3.60-4.21) and 5.82 (95% CI: 5.43-6.21) children per woman, respectively. In sub-group analysis, the pooled estimates of the TFR for the East African, Central African, Southern African, and West African regions, respectively, were 4.74, 5.59, 3.18, and 5.38 children per woman. Total fertility rates were greater in low-income nations (5.45), lower-middle-income countries (4.70), and high-middle-income countries (3.80).

Conclusions

SSA has a relatively high total fertility rate. The regions of West and Central Africa have the highest overall fertility rate. The fertility rate is higher in countries with a large rural population and low income. Strategies should be developed to address this public health concern, especially in rural Central and Western Africa.

Impact of the Productive SafetyNet Program on the minimum acceptable diet in the rural community of South Gondar Zone, Northwest Ethiopia

Background

Even though numerous factors contribute to undernutrition, it can happen immediately due to poor intake and illness. A minimum acceptable diet is one of the proxy measures for adequate consumption, which is an impact indicator for the Productive SafetyNet Program (PSNP). As a result, this study aimed to assess the impact of PSNP on the minimum acceptable diet among rural infants in the South Gondar Zone, Northwest Ethiopia.

Methods

A community-based cross-sectional study design was employed in the selected woredas (districts) of South Gondar Zone, Northwest Ethiopia, from 1 December 2017 to 30 January 2017. A total of 442 participants' data were collected during this time period through interviews with their mothers or caregivers. A multistage sampling technique was employed to select study subjects and interviewees using a structured questionnaire. Stata version 16 (MP) was employed to carry out a statistical analysis. A binary logistic regression model was employed to identify significant variables. The statistical significance was declared at a p-value of more than 0.05.

Results

The highest proportion of adequate diet diversity scores (261 [59.05%]) was from households who graduated (not part of it) from PSNPs. In this study, the magnitude of adequate dietary diversity, meal frequency, and minimum acceptable diet was 79.86, 82.58, and 66.52%, respectively. Marital status (AOR = 3.98, 95% CI: 1.39, 11.40), child age (AOR = 2.82, 95% CI: 1.78, 4.47), the educational status of the father (AOR = 0.56, 95% CI: 0.35, 0.89), the wealth index (AOR = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.12, 0.64), and the place of delivery (AOR = 3.14, 95% CI: 1.47, 6.73) were significant predictors for minimum acceptable diet uptake by children.

Conclusion

In this study, two-thirds of the infants had/received a minimum acceptable diet. Furthermore, infants from households with Productive SafetyNet users had a low minimum acceptable diet. Marital status, the educational status of the father, child age, the wealth index, and the place of delivery were associated factors with having an adequate intake of minimum acceptable diet by the children. Therefore, efforts to address sociodemographic and child-related factors during routine care are crucial.

Spatiotemporal distribution and determinants of overweight or obesity among urban women in Ethiopia: a multivariate decomposition analysis

BACKGROUND

Overweight /obesity is a global public health concern. It is higher among women than men in most continents of the world. This study aimed to determine the spatiotemporal distribution and determinants of changes in overweight/obesity over time among urban women in Ethiopia.

METHODS

We used data from three consecutive Demographic and Health Surveys in Ethiopia (2005, 2011, and 2016). The total weighted sample of 1112 in 2005, 3569 in 2011, and 3071 in 2016 urban women were included in the analysis. The primary outcome measure of this study was the spatiotemporal distribution and trends over time in overweight/obesity. Factors contributing to change in overweight/obesity were examined using a logit-based multivariate decomposition analysis.

RESULTS

Overweight/obesity increased from 14.2% in 2005 to 21% in 2016. Approximately 61.3% of the overall increase in overweight/obesity among urban women was due to the difference in coefficient (difference in the effect of characteristics) across the surveys. Changes in the composition of women aged 25-49 years (β = 0.012, 95% CI 0.008, 0.015), married women (β = 0.010, 95% CI 0.006, 0.014), women with formal education (primary: β = 0.007, 95% CI 0.003, 0.011, higher education: β = 0.014, 95% CI 0.006, 0.022), women with formal employment (β = 0.006, 95% CI 0.001, 0.011), and women with informal employment (β = - 0.002, 95% CI - 0.003, - 0.0004) were factors contributing to the change in overweight/obesity from 2005 to 2016. The risk difference (RD) in women's overweight/obesity significantly varied across regions in urban Ethiopia. Furthermore, a high proportion of overweight/obesity was found mainly in Tigray, Oromia, Amhara, and Addis Ababa.

CONCLUSIONS

The rate of overweight/obesity among women in urban Ethiopia has shown a significant increase over the last 11 years. This rate change was due to changes in the composition of women's age, educational status, marital status, and employment status. Therefore, program interventions should be targeted at older (> 25 years), educated, married, Addis Ababa residents, and formally employed women.

Suboptimal blood pressure control and its associated factors among people living with diabetes mellitus in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Suboptimal blood pressure control among people living with diabetes mellitus (DM) is one of the primary causes of cardiovascular complications and death in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, there is a paucity of evidence on the prevalence and associated factors of suboptimal blood pressure control in SSA. Therefore, this review aimed to estimate its pooled prevalence and associated factors among people living with DM in SSA.  METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed, African Journals OnLine, HINARI, ScienceDirect, Google Scholar, and direct Google to access observational studies conducted in SSA. Microsoft Excel spreadsheet was used to extract the data, which was exported into STATA/MP version 16.0 for further analyses. Heterogeneity across studies was checked using Cochran's Q test statistics and I² test, and small study effect was checked using Funnel plot symmetry and Egger's statistical test at a 5% significant level. A random-effects model was used to estimate the pooled prevalence and associated factors of suboptimal blood pressure control at a 95% confidence interval (CI) and significance level of p < 0.05.

RESULTS

Of the 7329 articles retrieved, 21 articles were eligible for the meta-analysis. After performing random-effects model, the pooled prevalence of suboptimal blood pressure control was 69.8% (95% CI: 63.43, 76.25%). Poor adherence to antihypertensive treatment (OR = 1.7; 95% CI: 1.03-2.80, I² = 0.0%, p = 0.531) and overweight (OR = 2.4, 95% CI: 1.57-3.68, I² = 0.00%, p = 0.47) were significantly associated with suboptimal blood pressure control.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of suboptimal blood pressure control among diabetic patients in SSA was high, and poor adherence to antihypertensive treatment and overweight were significantly associated with suboptimal blood pressure control. Hence, there is an urgent need for initiatives to improve and control hypertension, and preventive measures should concentrate on modifiable risk factors.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42020187901.

Prevalence and determinants of overweight/obesity among under-five children in sub-Saharan Africa: a multilevel analysis

Introduction

Childhood obesity has become a major public health problem for both developed and developing nations. It is uncommon to find under-nutrition in many low and middle-income countries; as well, obesity is a double burden in these settings. This study aimed to investigate the pooled prevalence of overweight /obesity among under-five (under-5) children in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

Methods

Data were accessed from the recent nationally representative demographic and health survey datasets from 33 SSA Countries. A total of 192,132 under-five children were recruited for this study. The pooled prevalence of overweight /obesity among under-5 was done using random-effects meta-analysis command. Multivariable multi-level mixed-effects logistic regression analysis was used to identify determinants for the prevalence of under-5 overweight and/or obesity. A P-value less than 0.05 was used to declare statistical significance.

Results

The pooled prevalence of overweight /obesity among under-5 was 5.10% (9% CI: 4.45 – 5.76) in SSA. South Africa region (8.80%, 95% CI: 4.18 – 13.42) had a higher prevalence of under-5 overweight and/or obesity followed by the East Africa region. Male under-5 children (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.09, 95 confidence interval (CI): 1.02 – 1.25), Larger birth weight under-5 children (AOR = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.26 – 1.54), under-5 children aged older two to three years (AOR = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.76 – 0.94), under-5 children born from educated mothers (secondary and above) (AOR = 1.12, 95% CI: 1.01 – 1.25), and under-5 children living in the West Africa (AOR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.56 – 0.81) and South Africa (AOR = 1.87, 95% CI: 1.09 – 3.21) were significant determinants for under-5 overweight and/or obesity.

Conclusion

Childhood obesity is becoming a great challenge and double burden in developing nations. In SSA Africa 1 in 20 under 5 children were overweight and/or obese. Male under-5 children, older aged, under-5 children born from educated mothers, and under-5 children living in the South Africa region were at higher risk for developing overweight and/or obesity. Thus, SSA countries should implement early to pause these consequences preventing the double burden of undernutrition.

Prognostic risk score development to predict birth asphyxia using maternal and fetal characteristics in South Gondar zone hospitals, north West Ethiopia

Background

Birth asphyxia leads to profound systemic and neurological sequela to decrease blood flow or oxygen to the fetus followed by lethal progressive or irreversible life-long pathologies. In low resource setting countries, birth asphyxia remains a critical condition. This study aimed to develop and validate prognostic risk scores to forecast birth asphyxia using maternal and neonatal characteristics in south Gondar zone hospitals.

Methods

Prospective cohorts of 404 pregnant women were included in the model in south Gondar Zone Hospitals, Northwest Ethiopia. To recognize potential prognostic determinants for birth asphyxia, multivariable logistic regression was applied. The model discrimination probability was checked using the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the model calibration plot was assessed using the ‘givitiR’ R-package. To check the clinical importance of the model, a cost-benefit analysis was done through a decision curve and the model was internally validated using bootstrapping. Lastly, a risk score prediction measurement was established for simple application.

Results

Of 404, 108 (26.73%) (95% CI: 22.6–31.3) newborns were exposed to birth asphyxia during the follow-up time. Premature rupture of membrane, meconium aspiration syndrome, malpresentation, prolonged labor, Preterm, and tight nuchal was the significant prognostic predictors of birth asphyxia. The AUROC curve for birth asphyxia was 88.6% (95% CI: 84.6-92.2%), which indicated that the tool identified the newborns at risk for birth asphyxia very well. The AUROC of the simplified risk score algorithm, was 87.9 (95% CI, 84.0– 91.7%) and the risk score value of 2 was selected as the optimal cut-off value, with a sensitivity of 78.87%, a specificity of 83.26%, a positive predictive value of 63.23%, and a negative predictive value of 91.52%.

Conclusions

We established birth asphyxia prediction tools by applying non-sophisticated maternal and neonatal characteristics for resource scares countries. The driven score has very good discriminative ability and prediction performance. This risk score tool would allow reducing neonatal morbidity and mortality related to birth asphyxia. Consequently, it will improve the overall neonatal health / under-five child health in low-income countries.

Development and validation of a risk prediction model for lost to follow-up among adults on active antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia: a retrospective follow-up study

Background

Over 420,000 people have initiated life-saving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Ethiopia; however, lost-to-follow-up (LTFU) rates continues to be high. A clinical decision tool is needed to identify patients at higher risk for LTFU to provide individualized risk prediction to intervention. Therefore, this study aimed to develop and validate a statistical risk prediction tool that predicts the probability of LTFU among adult clients on ART.

Methods

A retrospective follow-up study was conducted among 432 clients on ART in Gondar Town, northwest, Ethiopia. Prognostic determinates included in the analysis were determined by multivariable logistic regression. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) and calibration plot were used to assess the model discriminative ability and predictive accuracy, respectively. Individual risk prediction for LTFU was determined using both regression formula and score chart rule. Youden index value was used to determine the cut-point for risk classification. The clinical utility of the model was evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

The incidence of LTFU was 11.19 (95% CI 8.95–13.99) per 100-persons years of observation. Potential prognostic determinants for LTFU were rural residence, not using prophylaxis (either cotrimoxazole or Isoniazid or both), patient on appointment spacing model (ASM), poor drug adherence level, normal Body mass index (BMI), and high viral load (viral copies > 1000 copies/ml). The AUROC was 85.9% (95% CI 82.0–89.6) for the prediction model and the risk score was 81.0% (95% CI 76.7–85.3) which was a good discrimination probability. The maximum sensitivity and specificity of the probability of LTFU using the prediction model were 72.07% and 83.49%, respectively. The calibration plot of the model was good (p-value = 0.350). The DCA indicated that the model provides a higher net benefit following patients based on the risk prediction tool.

Conclusion

The incidence of LTFU among clients on ART in Gondar town was high (> 3%). The risk prediction model presents an accurate and easily applicable prognostic prediction tool for clients on ART. A prospective follow-up study and external validation of the model is warranted before using the model.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07691-x.

Determinants of under-five mortality in Ethiopia using the recent 2019 Ethiopian demographic and health survey data: nested shared frailty survival analysis

BACKGROUND

Worldwide, there is remarkable progress in child survival in the past three decades. Ethiopia is off-track on sustainable development targets in under-five mortality since 2020. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate time to death and its associated factors among under-five children in Ethiopia.

METHODS

Nationally representative demographic and health survey data were used for this study. A total of 5772 under-five children were included. Data were analyzed using R software. Semi-parametric nested shared frailty survival analysis was employed to identify factors affecting under-five mortality. Adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) with 95% Confidence interval (CI) was reported and log-likelihood was used for model comparison. Statistical significance was declared at P-value < 0.05.

RESULTS

The weighted incidence of under-five death before celebrating the first fifth year was 5.76% (95% CI: 5.17 - 6.40). Female sex and under-five children living in urban areas were high probability of survival than their counterparts. After controlling cluster and region level frailty, multiple births (AHR = 7.03, 95% CI: 4.40-11.24), breastfed within one hour after birth (AHR = 0.41, 95% CI: 0.28-0.61), preceding birth interval 18-23 months (AHR = 1.62, 95% CI: 1.12 -2.36), and under-five children younger than 18 months (AHR = 2.73, 95% CI: 1.93 -3.86), and teenage pregnancy (AHR = 1.70, 95% CI: 1.01-2.87) were statistically significant factors for time to under-five death.

CONCLUSION

Even though Ethiopia has a significant decline under-five death, still a significant number of under-five children were dying. Early initiation of breastfeeding, preceding birth interval and teenage pregnancy were the preventable factors of under-five mortality. To curve and achieve the SDG targets regarding under-five mortality in Ethiopia, policymakers and health planners should give prior attention to preventable factors for under-five mortality.

Medication adherence and its associated factors among type 2 diabetic patients in Ethiopian General Hospital, 2019: Institutional based cross-sectional study

Introduction

Globally, diabetes mellitus is becoming a major public health problem in developing countries. Diabetic medication has a major role in glycemic control. However, poor adherence to diabetes medication leads to increased morbidity and morbidity. This study aimed to determine diabetes medication adherence and its associated factors among type two diabetes (T2DM) patients from December 01, 2019 to December 31, 2019, at Debre Tabor General Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia.

Methods

An institutional-based cross-sectional survey was conducted with a sample of 422 T2DM at Debre Tabor General Hospital diabetic clinic, Ethiopia. The study was conducted from December 01-31/2019. Medication adherence was measured using the 8-item Morisky Medication Adherence Scale. The data were analyzed using STATA version 15.1 software. Logistic regressions were carried out to identify independent predictors for T2DM adherence. P-value less than 0.05 was used to declare statistical significance.

Results

A total of 408 T2DM patients were recruited for this study with a response rate of 96.7%. Overall, 58.33% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 53.47–63.03) T2DM patients had good medication adherence.T2DM patients who were taking both oral and injectable anti-diabetic medications (Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.98, 95% CI: 1.16–3.39), got the prescribed anti-diabetic medication from the hospital (AOR = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.32–0.80), having own glucometer at home (AOR = 0.30, 95% CI: 0.16–0.54), and having good diabetes-related knowledge (AOR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.27–0.90) were a significant determinant factors for anti-diabetic medication adherence.

Conclusion

Overall, more than half of T2DM patients had good medication adherence. Medication type, access to anti-diabetic medication, having own glucometer at home, diabetes-related knowledge were independent predictors of medication adherence. T2DM patients should have own glucometer at home and health promotion should provide about diabetic Mellitus for T2DM patients.

Internet Addiction and Its Associated Factors Among African High School and University Students: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Introduction

Internet addiction is characterized by excessive and uncontrolled use of the internet affecting everyday life. Adolescents are the primary risk group for internet addiction. Data on internet addiction is lacking in Africa. Thus, this review aimed to determine the pooled prevalence of internet addiction and its associated factors among high school and university students in Africa.

Methods

A comprehensive literature search was conducted using electronic databases (PubMed/MEDLINE, Web of science, Hinari, and Google scholar) to locate potential studies. Heterogeneity between studies was checked using Cochrane Q test statistics and I2 test statistics and small-study effects were checked using Egger's statistical test at a 5% significance level. A sensitivity analysis was performed. A random-effects model was employed to estimate the pooled prevalence and associated factors of internet addiction among students. The primary outcome of measure of this review was the prevalence of internet addiction and the secondary outcome of measures are the factors associated with internet addiction.

Results

A total of 5,562 studies were identified among the five databases. Of these, 28 studies from 10 countries with 14,946 high school and university students were included in this review. The overall pooled prevalence of internet addiction among the students was 34.53% [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 26.83, 42.23, I2 = 99.20%]. Male sex [Pooled Odds Ratio (POR) = 1.92, 95% CI:1.43, 2.57 I2 = 0.00], urban residence (POR = 2.32, 95% CI:1.19, 4.53, I2 = 59.39%), and duration of daily internet use for more than 4 h (POR = 2.25, 95% CI:1.20, 4.21, I2 = 0.00%, were significantly associated with internet addiction among adolescents.

Conclusion

Almost one-third of university and high school students in Africa are addicted to the internet. Male students, those from urban areas, and those who use the internet for more than 4 h per day have higher odds of internet addiction. Thus, we recommend that health planners and policymakers pay attention to the use of the internet and internet addiction in Africa.

Determinants of contraceptive decision making among married women in Sub-Saharan Africa from the recent Demographic and Health Survey data

BACKGROUND

Different evidence suggested that couples often disagree about the desirability of pregnancy and the use of contraceptives. Increased women's decision-making on contraceptives is identified as a key solution that can change the prevailing fertility and contraceptive utilization pattern in SSA. Therefore, this study aimed to determine determinants of contraceptive decision-making among married women in Sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

The data source of this study was the standard demographic and health survey datasets of 33 Sub-Saharan Africa countries. Reproductive age group women aged (15-49 years) currently married who are not pregnant and are current users of contraceptive preceding three years the survey was included from the individual record (IR file) file between 2010 and 2018. Since the outcome variable is composed of polychotomous categorical having multiple-choice, the Multinomial logistic regression (MNLR) model was applied.

RESULTS

A total of 76,516 married women were included in this study. Maternal age 20-35 and 36-49 years were more likely to had decision making on contraceptive use in both women-only and joint (women and husband/partner category (referance = husband/partner) (RRR = 1.2; 95% CI = 1.05-1.41, RRR = 1.18; 1.04-1.33 and RRR = 1.38; 95% CI = 1.17-1.61, RRR = 1.27; 1.11-1.47)] respectively. Married women with higher education were more likely to decide by women-only category on contraceptive use (referance = husband/partner) (RRR = 1.26; 95% CI = 1.06-1.49). Women only decision-making to use contraceptives relative to the husband/partner only decreases by a factor of 0.86 (95% CI = 0.80-0.93) among rural than urban residences. Women only or joint decision making to use contraceptives was 1.25 and 1.35 times more likely relative to husband/partner decision making respectively among women who had work than that of had no work. The relative risk of women's decision to use family planning relative to husband increased among couples who had a marital duration of ≥ 10 years (RRR = 1.14; 95% CI = 1.06-1.22). But it has no significant effect on joint decision making. Respondents found in the richest wealth index category increase the relative risk of joint decision-making relative to husband/partner (RRR = 1.33; 95% CI = 1.20-1.47) compared to the poorest category.

CONCLUSIONS

Decision-making to use contraceptives among married women varies greatly by socio-demographic characteristics. The finding of this study showed that women's age, women educational status, residence, duration of the marriage, family economy, and country income were significantly associated with contraceptive decision-making. Therefore to promote ideal family planning decision making, there is a need to formulate policies and design programs that target women's socio-demographic characteristics and modern contraceptive interventions should be promoted by considering empowering women on decision making.

Development of a Nomogram for Clinical Risk Prediction of Preterm Neonate Death in Ethiopia

INTRODUCTION

In 2020, over 6,500 newborn deaths occured every day, resulting in 2.4 million children dying in their 1st month of life. Ethiopia is one of the countries that will need to step up their efforts and expedite progress to meet the 2030 sustainable development goal. Developing prediction models to forecast the mortality of preterm neonates could be valuable in low-resource settings with limited amenities, such as Ethiopia. Therefore, the study aims to develop a nomogram for clinical risk prediction of preterm neonate death in Ethiopia in 2021.

METHODS

A prospective follow-up study design was employed. The data were used to analyze using R-programming version 4.0.3 software. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression is used for variable selection to be retained in the multivariable model. The model discrimination probability was checked using the ROC (AUROC) curve area. The model's clinical and public health impact was assessed using decision curve analysis (DCA). A nomogram graphical presentation created an individualized prediction of preterm neonate risk of mortality.

RESULTS

The area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) discerning power for five sets of prognostic determinants (gestational age, respiratory distress syndrome, multiple neonates, low birth weight, and kangaroo mother care) is 92.7% (95% CI: 89.9-95.4%). This prediction model was particular (specificity = 95%) in predicting preterm death, with a true positive rate (sensitivity) of 77%. The best cut point value for predicting a high or low risk of preterm death (Youden index) was 0.3 (30%). Positive and negative predictive values at the Youden index threshold value were 85.4 percent and 93.3 percent, respectively.

CONCLUSION

This risk prediction model provides a straightforward nomogram tool for predicting the death of preterm newborns. Following the preterm neonates critically based on the model has the highest cost-benefit ratio.

Estimation of lifetime survival and predictors of mortality among TB with HIV co-infected children after test and treat strategies launched in Northwest, Ethiopia, 2021; a multicentre historical follow-up study

INTRODUCTION

In resource-limited settings, the mortality rate among tuberculosis and human Immunodeficiency virus co-infected children is higher. However, there is no adequate evidence in Ethiopia in general and in the study area in particular. Hence, this study aims to estimate lifetime survival and predictors of mortality among TB with HIV co-infected children after test and treat strategies launched in Northwest Ethiopia Hospitals, 2021.

METHODS

Institution-based historical follow-up study was conducted in Northwest Ethiopia Hospitals among 227 Tuberculosis and Human Immunodeficiency Virus co-infected children from March 1, 2014, to January 12, 2021. The data were entered into Epi info-7 and then exported to STATA version 14 for analysis. The log-rank test was used to estimate the curve difference of the predictor variables. Bivariable cox-proportional hazard models were employed for each predictor variable. Additionally, those variables having a p-value < 0.25 in bivariate analysis were fitted into a multivariable cox-proportional hazards model. P-value < 0.05 was used to declare significance associated with the dependent variable.

RESULTS

From a total of 227 TB and HIV co-infected children, 39 died during the follow-up period. The overall mortality rate was 3.7 (95% CI (confidence interval): 2.9-4.7) per 100 person-years with a total of 1063.2-year observations. Cotrimoxazole preventive therapy (CPT) non-users [Adjusted Hazarded Ratio (AHR) = 3.8 (95% CI: 1.64-8.86)], presence of treatment failure [AHR = 3.0 (95% CI: 1.14-78.17)], and Cluster of differentiation 4(CD4) count below threshold [AHR = 2.7 (95% CI: 1.21-6.45)] were significant predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSION

In this study, the mortality rate among TB and HIV co-infected children was found to be very high. The risk of mortality among TB and HIV co-infected children was associated with treatment failure, CD4 count below the threshold, and cotrimoxazole preventive therapy non-users. Further research should conduct to assess and improve the quality of ART service in Northwest Ethiopia Hospitals.

Overweight and/or obesity and its determinants among under-five children in East African countries: A multilevel analysis using Bayesian approach

INTRODUCTION

Childhood overweight and/or obesity become a significant public health problem in the 21st century. It is a double burden next to undernutrition and has a dramatic rise in low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of overweight and/or obesity and its determinants among under-five children in East African Countries.

METHODS

Data were retrieved from the recent nationally representative demographic and health survey datasets from eleven East African Countries. A total of 89,091 weighted numbers of under-five children participated. Statistical analysis was performed using the R (Brms R-package) software. Multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression analysis using the Bayesian approach was employed to identify the factors affecting overweight and/or obesity among under-five children.

RESULTS

Overall, 4.59% (95% CI, 4.45-4.73) of under-five children in East African Countries were overweight and/or obese. Under-five children overweight and/or obesity was highest in Comoros and lowest in Burundi. Under-five children aged older than two years (Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 0.65, 95% credible interval (CrI), 0.57-0.73), females (AOR = 0.84, 95% CrI:, 0.75-0.94), under-five children live from rich household wealth status (AOR = 1.25, 95% CrI, 1.06-1.49), under-five children living in Malawi (AOR = 2.60, 95% CrI, 1.49-4.51), Mozambique (AOR = 5.26, 95% CrI, 3.52-7.79), Rwanda (AOR = 5.63, 95% CrI, 3.46-9.08), Tanzania (AOR = 2.15, 95% CrI, 1.47-3.12), and Uganda (AOR = 2.62, 95% CrI, 1.71-3.99) were a significant determinant for under-five overweight and/or obesity.

CONCLUSION

Overweight and/or obesity among under-five children become a problem in low and middle-income countries. Older under-five children, male sex, children who live in rich household wealth, and children who live in a country in Malawi, Mozambique, Ruanda, Tanzania, and Uganda were significantly affected by overweight and/or obesity. Therefore, in these countries, responsible stakeholders shall give primary attention to curve the alarming increase in overweight and/or obesity among under-five children.

Time to death and its determinants among under-five children in Sub-Saharan Africa using the recent (2010-2018) demographic and health survey data: country-based shared frailty analyses

Background

Substantial global progress has been made in reducing under-five mortality since 1990, yet progress is insufficient to meet the sustainable development goal of 2030 which calls for ending preventable child deaths. There are disproportional survivals among children in the world. Therefore, the study aimed to assess the Survival status of under-five mortality and determinants in Sub-Saharan African Countries using the recent DHS data.

Methods

The data was retrieved from the birth record file from the standard Demographic and Health Survey dataset of Sub-Saharan Africa countries. Countries that have at least one survey between 2010 and 2018 were retrieved. Parametric shared frailty survival analysis was employed.

Results

A total of 27,221 (7.35%) children were died before celebrating their fifth birthday. Children at an early age were at higher risk of dying and then decrease proportionally with increased age. The risk of death among rich and middle family were lowered by 18 and 8% (AHR =0.82, 95% CI: 0.77-0.87) and (AHR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.87-0.97) respectively, the hazard of death were 11, 19, 17, 90 and 55% (AHR = 1.06, 95% CI: 1.00-1.12), (AHR = 1.11,95%CI:1.04-1.19), (AHR = 1.17, 95% CI:1.12-1.23), (AHR = 1.90, 95%CI: 1.78-2.04) and (AHR = 1.55, 95% CI:1.47-1.63) higher than among children in rural, use unimproved water, delivered at home, born less than 18 months and between 18 and 23 months birth intervals respectively. The hazard of death was 7% among females and low birth weights (AHR = 0.93, 95%CI: 0.90 – 0.97) and (AHR = 0.93 95%CI: 0.89-0.97) respectively. There was also a significant association between multiple births and birth orders (AHR = 2.11, 95%CI: 2.51 – 2.90), (AHR = 3.01, 95%CI: 2.85-3.19) respectively.

Conclusions

Death rate among under-five children was higher at an early age then decreases as age advanced. Wealth status, residence, water source, place of delivery, sex of the child, plurality, birth size, preceding birth interval, and birth order were the most predictor variables. The health care program should be designed to encourage a healthy family structure. The health care providers should intervene in the community to inspire maternal health services.

Time to death and its associated factors among infants in sub-Saharan Africa using the recent demographic and health surveys: shared frailty survival analysis

BACKGROUND

Globally, approximately 4.1 million infants died, accounting for 75% of all under-five deaths. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), infant mortality was 52.7/1000 live births in 2018 This study aimed to assess the pooled estimate of infant mortality rate (IMR), time to death, and its associated factors in SSA using the recent demographic and health survey dataset between 2010 and 2018.

METHODS

Data were retrieved from the standard demographic and health survey datasets among 33 SSA countries. A total of 93,765 samples were included. The data were cleaned using Microsoft Excel and STATA software. Data analysis was done using R and STATA software. Parametric shared frailty survival analysis was employed. Statistical significance was declared as a two-side P-value < 0.05.

RESULTS

The pooled estimate of IMR in SSA was 51 per 1000 live births (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 46.65-55.21). The pooled estimate of the IMR was 53 in Central, 44 in Eastern, 44 in Southern, and 57 in Western Africa per 1000 live births. The cumulative survival probability at the end of 1 year was 56%. Multiple births (Adjusted Hazard ratio (AHR) = 2.68, 95% CI: 2.54-2.82), low birth weight infants (AHR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.22-1.34), teenage pregnancy (AHR = 1.19, 95 CI: 1.10-1.29), preceding birth interval <  18 months (AHR = 3.27, 95% CI: 3.10-3.45), birth order ≥ four (AHR = 1.14, 95% CI:1.10-1.19), home delivery (AHR = 1.08, 95% CI: 1.04-1.13), and unimproved water source (AHR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.01-1.13), female sex (AHR = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.83-0.89), immediately breastfeed (AHR = 0.24, 95% CI: 0.23-0.25), and educated mother (AHR = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.82-0. 95) and educated father (AHR = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.85-0.96) were statistically significant factors for infant mortality.

CONCLUSION

Significant number of infants died in SSA. The most common cause of infant death is a preventable bio-demographic factor. To reduce infant mortality in the region, policymakers and other stakeholders should pay attention to preventable bio-demographic risk factors, enhance women education and improved water sources.

Development and Validation of a Clinical Prognostic Risk Score to Predict Early Neonatal Mortality, Ethiopia: A Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Analysis

Background

Early neonatal death is the death of a live-born baby within the first seven days of life, which is 73% of all postnatal deaths in the globe. This study aimed to develop and validate a prognostic clinical risk tool for the prediction of early neonatal death.

Methods

A prospective follow-up study was conducted among 393 neonates at Debre Tabor Referral hospital, Northwest Ethiopia. Multivariable logistic regression model was employed to identify potential prognostic determinants for early neonatal mortality. Area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) was used to check the model discrimination probability using ‘pROC’ R-package. Model calibration plot was checked using ‘givitiR’ R-package. Finally, a risk score prediction tool was developed for ease of applicability. Decision curve analysis was done for cost-benefit analysis and to check the clinical impact of the model.

Results

Overall, 15.27% (95% CI: 12.03–19.18) of neonates had the event of death during the follow-up period. Maternal undernutrition, antenatal follow-up less than four times, birth asphyxia, low birth weight, and not exclusive breastfeeding were the prognostic predictors of early neonatal mortality. The AUROC for the reduced model was 88.7% (95% CI: 83.8–93.6%), which had good discriminative probability. The AUROC of the simplified risk score algorithm was 87.8% (95% CI, 82.7–92.9%). The sensitivity and specificity of the risk score tool was 70% and 89%, respectively. The true prediction accuracy of the risk score tool to predict early neonatal mortality was 86%, and the false prediction probability was 13%.

Conclusion

We developed an early neonatal death prediction tool using easily available maternal and neonatal characteristics for resource-limited settings. This risk prediction using risk score is an easily applicable tool to identify neonates at a higher risk of having early neonatal mortality. This risk score tool would offer an opportunity to reduce early neonatal mortality, thus improving the overall early neonatal death in a resource-limited setting.

Iron-rich food consumption and associated factors among children aged 6-23 months in sub-Saharan Africa: A multilevel analysis of Demographic and Health Surveys

INTRODUCTION

Anemia remains a major public health problem for children in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Iron-rich foods consumption has a determinant role on the anemia status. Hence, this study aimed to determine the prevalence of good consumption of iron-rich foods and its associated factors among children aged 6-23 months in SSA.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The recent Demographic and Health Survey data sets of thirty-five SSA countries were used. Data were analyzed using STATA/MP version 16.0 and all statistical analyses were done after weighting the data. A generalized linear mixed model using Poisson regression with robust error variance was used to determine factors associated with good consumption of iron-rich food. Association of variables was declared at a p-value of ≤0.05 and adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) ratio with its 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated for each variable.

RESULTS

The total weighted samples of 77,001 children aged 6-23 months were included. The prevalence of consumption of iron rich foods was 42.1% (95% CI: 41.78-42.48). Children with age of 12-17 (adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) = 1.96, 95% CI: 1.89-2.04) and 18-23 months (aPR = 2.05, 95% CI: 1.97-2.14), who took drugs for intestinal parasites (aPR = 1.30, 95% CI: 1.26-1.34), with postnatal check within 2 months (aPR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.06-1.13), and children from women with ANC visit of 1-3 (aPR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.24-1.37) and ≥4 (aPR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.34-1.48) had higher prevalence of good consumption of iron rich foods. Moreover, the prevalence of consumptions of iron rich foods was higher among children from; family with rich (aPR = 1.36, 95%CI: 1.30-1.42) and middle (aPR = 1.14 95% CI: 1.09-1.19) wealth index, and mother with media exposure (aPR = 1.26, 95%CI: 1.22-1.31).

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of good consumption of iron-rich foods among children aged 6-23 months in SSA countries is low. Child factors, family factors, and community-level factors were significantly associated with consumption of iron rich foods. Strategies to increase the consumption of iron-rich foods during this critical stage of growth and development should be designed in SSA.

Factors Associated with Numbers of Antenatal Care Visits in Rural Ethiopia

INTRODUCTION

Antenatal care (ANC) is a medical care and procedure carried out for pregnant women. Data on ANC visits can help policymakers show gaps in service provision. Therefore, this study assessed the factors associated with the number of ANC visits among women in rural Ethiopia.

METHODS

We included a total of 6611 women who gave birth within 5 years preceding the survey from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey. A multi-level negative binomial regression analysis was employed to consider the hierarchical nature of the data. In the multivariable analysis, variables with a p-value <0.05 were considered to be significantly associated with the number of ANC visits.

RESULTS

Overall, 27.3% (95% CI: 14.63, 15.76) of women had at least four ANC visits during pregnancy in rural Ethiopia. Among individual level factors, age group 25-29 years (adjusted incidence rate ratio (AIRR)=1.13,95% CI:1.02,1.26), household rich wealth status (AIRR=1.17, 95% CI:1.04,1.31), women's educational status (primary, AIRR=1.19,95% CI:1.08,1.32; secondary, AIRR= 1.30,95% CI:1.08,1.55; above secondary, AIRR=1.35, 95% CI:1.07,1.71), partner educational status (primary, AIRR=1.16, 95% CI:1.05,1.28; secondary, AIRR=1.22,95% CI:1.08,1.38), and autonomy to decision to their care (AIRR=1.25,95% CI:1.10,1.42) were positively associated factors whereas having a birth order of five or more (AIRR=0.80,95% CI: 0.69,0.94) was a negative associated with number of ANC visits. Among community-level variables, being in higher community level literacy (AIRR=1.35, 95% CI: 1.14, 1.59) and higher poverty level (AIRR=0.77, 95% CI: 0.64, 0.92) were significant factors with the number of ANC visits.

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Women's age, wealth status, women's educational status, partner educational status, autonomy to decision making in health care, and birth order were determinants of the number of ANC visits. Furthermore, poverty and literacy are also important factors at the community level. Addressing economic and educational interventions for rural women should be prioritized.

Spatial distribution and geographical heterogeneity factors associated with poor consumption of foods rich in vitamin A among children age 6-23 months in Ethiopia: Geographical weighted regression analysis

INTRODUCTION

Vitamin A deficiency is a major public health problem in poor societies. Dietary consumption of foods rich in vitamin A was low in Ethiopia. This study aimed to assess the spatial distribution and spatial determinants of dietary consumption of foods rich in vitamin A among children aged 6-23 months in Ethiopia.

METHODS

Ethiopian 2016 demographic and health survey dataset using a total of 3055 children were used to conduct this study. The data were cleaned and weighed by STATA version 14.1 software and Microsoft Excel. Children who consumed foods rich in vitamin A (Egg, Meat, Vegetables, Green leafy vegetables, Fruits, Organ meat, and Fish) at least one food item in the last 24 hours were declared as good consumption. The Bernoulli model was fitted using Kuldorff's SaTScan version 9.6 software. ArcGIS version 10.7 software was used to visualize spatial distributions for poor consumption of foods rich in vitamin A. Geographical weighted regression analysis was employed using MGWR version 2.0 software. A P-value of less than 0.05 was used to declare statistically significant predictors spatially.

RESULTS

Overall, 62% (95% CI: 60.56-64.00) of children aged 6-23 months had poor consumption of foods rich in vitamin A in Ethiopia. Poor consumption of foods rich in vitamin A highly clustered in Afar, eastern Tigray, southeast Amhara, and the eastern Somali region of Ethiopia. Spatial scan statistics identified 142 primary spatial clusters located in Afar, the eastern part of Tigray, most of Amhara and some part of the Oromia Regional State of Ethiopia. Children living in the primary cluster were 46% more likely vulnerable to poor consumption of foods rich in vitamin A than those living outside the window (RR = 1.46, LLR = 83.78, P < 0.001). Poor wealth status of the household, rural residence and living tropical area of Ethiopia were spatially significant predictors.

CONCLUSION

Overall, the consumption of foods rich in vitamin A was low and spatially non-random in Ethiopia. Poor wealth status of the household, rural residence and living tropical area were spatially significant predictors for the consumption of foods rich in vitamin A in Ethiopia. Policymakers and health planners should intervene in nutrition intervention at the identified hot spot areas to reduce the poor consumption of foods rich in vitamin A among children aged 6-23 months.

The effect of age on the incidence of COVID-19 complications: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic was reported from Wuhan, China, on December 31, 2019, and the pandemic was spread to more than 212 countries in the globe. This meta-analysis aimed to assess the pooled incidence of COVID-19 complications and to identify the association between the incidence of complications and age.

METHODS

Comprehensive databases, PubMed, Hinari, and Google Scholar, were used to locate potential articles for this review. Data were extracted using Microsoft Excel and imported to the STATA/MP version 16.0 software for analysis. Heterogeneity between studies was assessed using the Cochrane Q test statistics and I2 test, and small study effect was checked using Egger's statistical test at 5% significant level. Sensitivity analysis was checked. A random-effects model was conducted to estimate the pooled incidence of COVID-19 complications. Univariate meta-regression was conducted to identify the association between the mean ages with each complication.

RESULTS

From the total of 1237 studies, 12 studies were included with a total of 3064 COVID-19 patients. The most complications were acute respiratory distress syndrome (30.93%, 95%CI 21.3-40.6%) followed by acute liver injury (22.8%, 95%CI 14-31.5%), shock (10.9%, 95%CI 7.4-14.4%), acute kidney injury (7%, 95%CI 3.8-10.4%), and acute cardiac injury (6.4%, 95%CI 2.8-15.6%). Univariate meta-regression revealed that as the mean age increased by 1 year, the incidence of acute respiratory distress syndrome, acute kidney injury, acute cardiac injury, and shock increased by a factor of 2.9 (β = 2.9, 95%CI 2.4-3.4, adjusted R2 = 88), 0.4 (β = 0.4, 95%CI 0.04-0.72, adjusted R2 = 54), 1.6 (β = 1.6, 95%CI 1.1-2.1, adjusted R2 = 85), and 1.1 (β = 1.1, 95%CI 0.8-1.5, adjusted R2 = 26) times respectively.

CONCLUSION

Significant complications of COVID-19 viral infections were reported. Older populations were a high-risk group of developing adverse complications as compared to their counterparts. Health care professionals should give primary attention to those risk group individuals.

Prevalence of hypertension and its determinants in Ethiopia: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Hypertension is a major public health problem globally and it is a leading cause of death and disability in developing countries. This review aims to estimate the pooled prevalence of hypertension and its determinants in Ethiopia.

Methods

A systematic literature search was conducted at the electronic databases (PubMed, Hinari, and Google Scholar) to locate potential studies. Heterogeneity between studies checked using Cochrane Q test statistics and I² test statistics and small study effect were checked using Egger’s statistical test at 5% significance level. Sensitivity analysis was checked. A random-effects model was employed to estimate the pooled prevalence of hypertension and its determinants in Ethiopia.

Results

In this review, 38 studies that are conducted in Ethiopia and fulfilled the inclusion criteria with a total number of 51,427 study participants were reviewed. The overall pooled prevalence of hypertension in the country was 21.81% (95% CI: 19.20–24.42, I² = 98.35%). The result of the review also showed that the point of prevalence was higher among males (23.21%) than females (19.62%). When we see the pervasiveness of hypertension from provincial perspective; the highest prevalence of hypertension was observed in Addis Ababa (25.35%) and the lowest was in Tigray region (15.36%). In meta-regression analysis as the mean age increases by one year, the likelihood of developing hypertension increases by a factor of 0.58 times (β = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.31–0.86, R² = 36.67). Male sex (OR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.03–1.61, I² = 81.35%), age > 35 years (OR = 3.59, 95% CI: 2.57–5.02, I² = 93.48%), overweight and/or obese (OR = 3.34, 95% CI: 2.12–5.26, I² = 95.41%), khat chewing (OR = 1.42, 95% CI: I² = 62%), alcohol consumption (OR = 1.50, 95% CI: 1.21–1.85, I² = 64%), family history of hypertension (OR = 2.56, 95% CI: 1.64–3.99, I² = 83.28%), and family history of diabetes mellitus (OR = 3.69, 95% CI: 1.85–7.59, I² = 89.9%) are significantly associated with hypertension.

Conclusion

Hypertension is becoming a major public health problem in Ethiopia. Nearly two out of ten individuals who are older than 18 years living with hypertension. Sex, age, overweight and/or obese, khat chewing, alcohol consumption, and family history of hypertension and diabetes mellitus are statistically significant determinant factors for hypertension in Ethiopia. Primary attention should be given for behavioral risk factors to tackle the alarming increase of hypertension in Ethiopia.

Level of glycemic control and its associated factors among type II diabetic patients in debre tabor general hospital, northwest Ethiopia

INTRODUCTION

Poor glycemic control is the major risk factor for the development of acute and chronic diabetes complications. There are limited studies on the level of glycemic control and its associated factors among diabetic patients. So, this study aimed to assess the level of glycemic control and its associated factors among type II DM patients in Debre Tabor General Hospital.

METHODS

An institution based cross sectional study was conducted from November 1-30, 2017. Totally, 413 diabetic patients selected by systematic random sampling. The three months average fasting blood glucose was used to determine glycemic control. Regressions were fitted to identify associated factors. A p-value <0.05 was used to declare statistical significance.

RESULT

A total of 398 study participants were participated in the study with a response rate of 96.4%. Among 398 type II DM patients, 284 (71.4%) had poor glycemic control. Patient's educational status (able to read and write; AOR = 3.0, 95%CI (1.5, 5.7), (primary education; AOR = 4.5, 95%CI (1.8, 10.9), and (secondary education; AOR = 5.7, 95% CI (2.9, 11.2)))), family history of DM (AOR = 2.3, 95%CI (1.4, 3.9)), duration of DM since diagnosis (AOR = 0.3, 95% CI (0.1, 0.9)), and dietary adherence (AOR = 2.4, 95% CI (1.4, 4.1)) were associated factors to had good glycemic control.

CONCLUSION

Poor glycemic control was high. Educational status, family history of DM, duration of DM, and dietary adherence were the associated factors of glycemic control. Appropriate attention shall be given for glycemic control especially for patients with a longer duration. Health promotion related to medical recommendations is a cross-cutting intervention for diabetic patients and should be provided for all type II diabetic patients.

Spatial distribution of iron rich foods consumption and its associated factors among children aged 6-23 months in Ethiopia: spatial and multilevel analysis of 2016 Ethiopian demographic and health survey

BACKGROUND

Micronutrient deficiencies are the most prevalent nutritional deficiencies that cause serious developmental problems in the globe. The aim of this study was to assess the spatial distribution of iron rich foods consumption and its associated factors among children aged 6-23 months in Ethiopia.

METHODS

The data retrieved from the standard Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey 2016 dataset with a total sample size of 3055 children aged 6-23 months. Spatial scan statistics done using Kuldorff's SaTScan version 9.6 software. ArcGIS version 10.7 software used to visualize spatial distribution for poor consumption of iron rich foods. Multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression analysis employed to identify the associated factors for good consumption of iron-rich foods. Level of statistical significance was declared at a two-sided P-value < 0.05.

RESULTS

Overall, 21.41% (95% CI: 19.9-22.9) of children aged 6-23 months had good consumption of iron rich foods in Ethiopia. Poor consumption of iron rich foods highly clustered at Southern Afar, Southeastern Amhara and Tigray, and the Northern part of Somali Regional States of Ethiopia. In spatial scan statistics, children aged 6-23 months living in the most likely cluster were 21% more likely vulnerable to poor consumption of iron rich foods than those living outside the window (RR = 1.21, P-value < 0.001). Child aged 12-17 months (AOR = 1.90, 95% CI: 1.45-2.49) and 18-23 months (AOR = 2.05, 95% CI: 1.55-2.73), primary (AOR = 1.42, 95% CI:1.06-1.87) and secondary and above (AOR = 2.26, 95% CI: 1.47-3.46) mother's education level, rich (AOR = 1.49, 95% CI: 1.04-2.13) and middle (AOR = 1.83, 95% CI: 1.31-2.57) household wealth status, Amhara (AOR = 0.24, 95% CI: 0.09-0.60), Afar (AOR = 0.38, 95% CI: 0.17-0.84), and Harari (AOR = 2.11, 95% CI: 1.02-4.39) regional states of Ethiopia were statistically significant factors for good consumption of iron rich foods.

CONCLUSION

Overall, the consumption of iron rich foods was low and spatially non-random in Ethiopia. Federal Ministry of Health and other stakeholders should give prior attention to the identified hot spot areas to enhance the consumption of iron rich foods among children aged 6-23 months.

Trends and determinants of home delivery in Ethiopia: further multivariate decomposition analysis of 2005-2016 Ethiopian Demographic Health Surveys

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to assess the trends and factors that had contributed to the change in home delivery in Ethiopia over the last decade.

DESIGN, SETTING AND ANALYSIS

A nationally representative repeated cross-sectional survey was conducted using 2005, 2011 and 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys. Multivariate decomposition logistic regression analysis was employed to identify significant factors that have been contributed to the change in home delivery. Level of statistical significance was declared at a two-sided p value <0.05.

OUTCOME MEASURE

Trends of home delivery.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 33 482 women were included.

RESULTS

Home delivery has been decreased by 21% over the last decade in Ethiopia. In the last decade, 39% of the decrements in home delivery attributed to change in women's compositional characteristics. Antenatal care visits, educational status of the women and husband, birth order, religion, wealth index and distance from a health facility were the main sources of compositional change factors for the change of home delivery. Behavioural changes towards health facility delivery contributed approximately two-thirds of the decline of home delivery in Ethiopia. Antenatal care visits, birth order and religion have significantly contributed to the change of home delivery resulted from behavioural changes towards healthcare facility utilisation over the last decade.

CONCLUSION

Despite the importance of health facility delivery, a significant number of women still deliver at home in Ethiopia. Women's compositional characteristics and behaviour changes were significantly associated with the change in home delivery. Multisectoral educational intervention is needed to change women's attitudes towards home delivery. Antenatal care coverage and healthcare facility coverage should increase thereby to improve healthcare facility based-delivery practice. Further research needs to be done to explore the potential barriers of health facility delivery from a religious perspective.

Spatio-temporal distribution and associated factors of home delivery in Ethiopia. Further multilevel and spatial analysis of Ethiopian demographic and health surveys 2005-2016

Background

Globally, between 2012 and 2017, 80% of live births occurred at health facilities assisted by skilled health personnel. In Ethiopia, in 2016 only 26% of live births attended by skilled health personal. This study aimed to assess the spatial patterns and associated factors of home delivery in Ethiopia using 2005, 2011, and 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys.

Methods

A total of 33,482 women who gave live birth in the 5 years preceding each survey were included for this study. ArcGIS version 10.7 software was used to visualize the spatial distribution of home delivery. The Bernoulli model was applied using Kilduff SaTScan version 9.6 software to identify significant purely spatial clusters for home delivery in Ethiopia. A multilevel logistic regression model was fitted to identify factors associated with home delivery. A p-value < 0.05 was taken to declare statistically significant predictors.

Results

Home delivery was declined from 94.78% in 2005, 90.05% in 2011, and 73.44% in 2016 in Ethiopia. Among the three surveys, consistently high clustering of home delivery was observed in Amhara and Southern Nations Nationalities and People’s Regions (SNNPR) of Ethiopia. In spatial scan statistics analysis, a total of 128 clusters (RR = 1.04, P-value < 0.001) in 2005, and 90 clusters (RR = 1.11, P-value < 0.001) in 2011, and 55 clusters (RR = 1.29, P-value < 0.001) in 2016 significant primary clusters were identified. Educational status of women and husband, religion, distance to the health facility, mobile access, antenatal care visit, birth order, parity, wealth index, residence, and Region were statistically significant predictors of home delivery.

Conclusion

The spatial distribution of home delivery among the three consecutive surveys were non-random in Ethiopia. Educational status of women and husband, religion, distance to the health facility, wealth index, residence, parity, mobile access, Region, and antenatal care visit were statistically significant predictors of home delivery in Ethiopia. Therefore, an intervention needs to improve the coverage of antenatal care visit, and health care facilities. Ministry of health and other stakeholders should give special attention to women living in Amhara and SNNPR states of Ethiopia.

Magnitude of Obesity/Overweight and Its Associated Factors Among HIV/AIDS Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy in Jimma Zone Hospitals, South West Ethiopia: Hospital-Based Cross-Sectional Study

PURPOSE

Obesity is on the rise worldwide, not only in the general population but also in PLWHA. Being overweight and obese are themselves risk factors for cardiovascular and other diseases. Despite this, few studies have been conducted to determine the magnitude of obesity/overweight and its associated factors among HIV/AIDS patients in Ethiopia, which necessitates this study.

METHODS

Hospital-based cross-sectional study was conducted from December to January 2019 at selected Jimma zone hospitals. WHO STEP-wise approach to chronic disease risk factor surveillance (STEPS) questionnaire and document review for HIV-related clinical factors was applied. Weight, height and waist circumference and hip circumference were measured. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 20.

RESULTS

A total of 252 participants with a response rate of 95.8% were included. The prevalence of obesity/overweight was 21%. After adjusting for these variables, age category of greater than 50 years [AOR = 0.4, 95% CI (0.2, 0.9), p = 0.03], WHO clinical stage III and above [AOR = 0.04, 95% CI (0.002, 0.6), p = 0.02], presence of mild to moderate physical activity [AOR = 1.3, 95% CI (5.5, 33.3), p ≤ 0.001)], plasma CD4 count between 351 and 500 copies/mL [AOR=0.15, 95% CI (0.04, 0.6) p=0.024], and female sex [AOR = 2.6, 95% CI (1.25, 10) p=0.03)] were significantly associated with obesity/overweight.

CONCLUSION

There was a high prevalence of obesity/overweight among HIV/AIDS patients. It was found that older age, female sex, early stage of the disease, lower CD4 count and presence of mild to moderate physical activity were significant predictors of obesity/overweight. Clinicians should be aware of the health consequence of obesity and consider instituting targeted weight management programs as a part of routine HIV care.

Nutritional status and associated factors among high school adolescents in Debre Tabor Town, South Gondar Zone, Northcentral Ethiopia

Background

Adolescents are among the nutritionally vulnerable group due to their nutritional demand for pubertal spurt. At this age, adequate nutrition, nutritional education, and counseling are very important to halt the consequence and its impact on this segment of the population. So, the aim of this study was to assess the prevalence and its associated factors of nutritional status among high school adolescents aged 10–19 years in Debre Tabor Town, South Gondar Zone, and North central Ethiopia.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted from September to October 2017. A total of 349 high school adolescents were selected by using simple random sampling. Data were collected through face to face interview and physical measurement. The data were entered into Epi info version 7 software and then exported into SPSS version 20 software for further analysis. A p-value < 0.2 was used to select independent variables for multivariable logistic regression. A p-value ≤0.05 was used to declare the statistical significance. Also, odd ratios were calculated with a 95% of the confidence interval to check the existence of the association.

Result

A total of 327 adolescents participated in this study with the overall response rate of 93.69%. The magnitude of stunting and thinness was 15% (95% CI: 11, 19) and 4.9% (95% CI: 2.4, 7.4) respectively. Sex (AOR: 2.24, 95% CI: 1.15, 4.36), residency (AOR: 2.48, 95% CI: 1.28, 4.82), and family size (AOR: 3.41, 95% CI: 1.65, 7.05) were the associated factors for stunting. Residence (AOR: 3.67, 95% CI: 1.16, 11.56), and living away from the family (AOR: 4.37, 95% CI: 1.20, 15.95) were the associated factors for the development of thinness.

Conclusion

Stunting is a mild public health problem but not thinness. Sociodemographic variables were the determinant factors for the development of stunting and thinness. To halt this, integrated adolescent related school and nutrition services is very important with adequate and quality food access to adolescents. In addition to this the government shall have to increase the access of education.

Factors influencing diabetes self-care practice among type 2 diabetes patients attending diabetic care follow up at an Ethiopian General Hospital, 2018

INTRODUCTION

Diabetes mellitus is a global public health emergency in the twenty-first century. Diabetes patients who had to adhere to good self-care recommendation can prevent the complication associated with diabetes mellitus. Self-care management of diabetes mellitus in Sub-Saharan Africa was poor including Ethiopia. The aim of this study was to assess factors influencing diabetes self-care practice among type 2 diabetes patients at Debre Tabor General Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia diabetes clinic follow up unit.

METHODS

An institutional based cross-sectional survey was conducted on systematically sampled 405 type 2 diabetes patients at Debre Tabor General Hospital diabetes clinic from June 02/2018 to June 30/2018. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression was fitted to identify independent predictors of diabetes self-care practice. A p value of less than 0.05 was used to declare statistical significance.

RESULTS

A total of 385 type 2 diabetes patients participated with a response rate of 95%, of which 243 (63.1%) study participants had good self-care practice. The mean ± SD age of the respondents and the duration of diagnosed for diabetes mellitus was 52.28 ± 12.45 and 5.09 ± 3.80 years respectively. Type 2 diabetes patients who had a glucometer at home (AOR = 7.82 CI (3.24, 18.87)), getting a diabetes education (AOR = 2.65 CI (1.44, 4.89)), and having social support (AOR = 2.72 CI (1.66, 4.47)) were statistically associated with good self-care practice.

CONCLUSION

Despite, the importance of diabetes self-care practice for the management of diabetes and preventing its complications, a significant number of type 2 diabetes patients had poor diabetes self-care practice. So, to enhance this poor practice of diabetes self-care, provision of diabetes self-care education and counseling on self-monitoring blood glucose should be promote by health care providers during their follow up.

Adherence to iron with folic acid supplementation and its associated factors among pregnant women attending antenatal care follow up at Debre Tabor General Hospital, Ethiopia, 2017

Introduction

Nutritional anemia is a major public health problem throughout the world, particularly in developing countries. Iron with folic acid supplementation (IFAS) is recommended to mitigate anemia and its resulting complications during pregnancy. There has been limited study on IFAS adherence of pregnant women in the study area. The aim of this study was to assess adherence to IFAS and its associated factors among pregnant women attending antenatal care service in Debre Tabor General Hospital, Ethiopia.

Methods

An institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted from January 9 to April 8, 2017, at Debre Tabor General Hospital. A total of 262 study participants were included and selected by systematic random sampling. The entire interviewed questionnaire was checked and entered into EpiData version 3.1 and then exported to SPSS version 20 for windows for analysis. IFAS adherence status was defined as, if pregnant mothers took 65% or more of the IFAS which is equivalent to taking IFAS at least 4 days a week during the 1-month period preceding the study. Regressions were fitted to identify independent predictors of IFAS adherence. A P-value of less than 0.05 was used to declare statistical significance.

Results

A total of 241 pregnant women were included (92% response rate), of which 107 (44%) were adherent to IFAS. Only 39% received IFAS counseling, and 52% had some knowledge of IFAS. Gravidity (AOR = 2.92 95% CI (1.61, 5.30)), gestational age at first ANC visit (AOR = 3.67, 95% CI (1.94, 6.97)), pregnant women who got advice about IFAS (AOR = 2.04, 95%CI (1.12, 3.75)), current anemia (AOR = 2.22, 95%CI (1.45, 4.29)), and had knowledge about IFAS (AOR = 3.27, 95% CI (1.80, 5.95)) were statistically associated with adherence to IFAS among pregnant women.

Conclusion

Overall, IFAS adherence among pregnant women was low. The associated factors with adherence of IFAS were counseling and knowledge, early ANC attendance, pregnancy history, and current anemia diagnosis. IFAS counseling by health workers was low but, when given, was associated with improved IFAS adherence. Health workers and health extension workers should consistently counsel on IFAS benefits during ANC visit, to improve IFAS adherence during the current and subsequent pregnancies.

Level of adherence to dietary recommendations and barriers among type 2 diabetic patients: a cross-sectional study in an Ethiopian hospital

Background

Limited data are available regarding the level of adherence and barriers to dietary recommendations in individuals with type 2 diabetes in Africa including Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aimed at assessing the level of dietary adherence and its barriers among patients with type 2 diabetes in northwest Ethiopia.

Methods

A prospective hospital-based cross-sectional study was conducted from August to October 2017 at Debre Tabor General Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia. The Perceived Dietary Adherence Questionnaire (PDAQ) was used for dietary adherence measurement. Multivariate logistic regression was done to identify the barriers influencing dietary adherence.

Result

A significant percentage (74.3%) of the study participants had poor adherence to dietary recommendations. The highest mean score was obtained for the question regarding consuming foods high in sugar with a mean 5.49 ± 1.20 times a week. On the other hand, our participants had a low consumption of fruits and vegetables and foods high in omega-3 fats with a mean of 1.84 ± 1.96 and 0.1 ± 0.62 times a week respectively. According to the survey of participants, lack of knowledge, lack of diet education, inability to afford the cost of healthy diet and poor awareness about the benefit of dietary recommendations were the most cited reasons for poor dietary adherence. In multivariate logistics regression, low level of educational status, the presence of co-morbidities, lack of previous exposure to dietary education and low monthly income were statistically significant factors associated with non-adherence.

Conclusion

The rate of non-adherence to dietary recommendation among patients with T2DM was found to be high in northwest Ethiopia. Hence, providing customized health education about the potential benefit of proper dietary recommendations in controlling blood glucose is recommended. Health care providers should be proactive in promoting adherence to dietary recommendations in patients with T2DM.