A trans-hemispheric migratory songbird does not advance spring schedules or increase migration rate in response to record-setting temperatures at breeding sites

Failure to advance migratory phenology in response to climate change may pose a significant threat to a declining Nearctic-Neotropical songbird

Populations of long-distance migrants that breed in seasonal habitats can be significantly impacted by climate change. We examined the migratory and breeding phenologies of the cerulean warbler (Setophaga cerulea), a declining long-distance Nearctic-Neotropical migrant that breeds in deciduous forests of Indiana. Our primary objectives were to determine temporal trends in cerulean warbler migratory timing, and to identify climate variables that explain variation in this species' migratory and breeding phenologies. We reviewed trends in cerulean warbler first arrival to Indiana from 1982 to 2019, and compared them to several explanatory climate variables: spring temperature, growing degree days (GDD), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). We also compared the timing of cerulean warbler first lay dates from 2012 to 2019 with the aforementioned climate variables and annual spring precipitation. Cerulean warblers exhibited a minimal advance in first arrival timing (≤4 days in 38 years). Arrival timing was best predicted by GDD and a null model, but trends in GDD indicate that spring warming in Indiana has advanced by a greater margin, approximately 14 days. Climate variables did not predict first lay timing better than a null model. Springtime in Indiana is occurring earlier, but cerulean warblers are advancing their migratory timing to a much smaller degree. This failure to adapt may have a detrimental effect on warbler populations if it results in an asynchronization of important biological timings between them and their prey. Further studies of cerulean warbler breeding and prey phenologies are necessary to determine how climate change is impacting this species' reproductive success.

Timing of Breeding Site Availability Across the North-American Arctic Partly Determines Spring Migration Schedule in a Long-Distance Neotropical Migrant

Long-distance migrants are under strong selection to arrive on their breeding grounds at a time that maximizes fitness. Many arctic birds start nesting shortly after snow recedes from their breeding sites and timing of snowmelt can vary substantially over the breeding range of widespread species. We tested the hypothesis that migration schedules of individuals co-occurring at the same non-breeding areas are adapted to average local environmental conditions encountered at their specific and distant Arctic breeding locations. We predicted that timing of breeding site availability (measured here as the average snow-free date) should explain individual variation in departure time from shared non-breeding areas. We tested our prediction by tracking American Golden-Plovers (Pluvialis dominica) nesting across the North-American Arctic. These plovers use a non-breeding (wintering) area in South America and share a spring stopover area in the nearctic temperate grasslands, located >1,800 km away from their nesting locations. As plovers co-occur at the same non-breeding areas but use breeding sites segregated by latitude and longitude, we could disentangle the potential confounding effects of migration distance and timing of breeding site availability on individual migration schedule. As predicted, departure date of individuals stopping-over in sympatry was positively related to the average snow-free date at their respective breeding location, which was also related to individual onset of incubation. Departure date from the shared stopover area was not explained by the distance between the stopover and the breeding location, nor by the stopover duration of individuals. This strongly suggests that plover migration schedule is adapted to and driven by the timing of breeding site availability per se. The proximate mechanism underlying the variable migration schedule of individuals is unknown and may result from genetic differences or individual learning. Temperatures are currently changing at different speeds across the Arctic and this likely generates substantial heterogeneity in the strength of selection pressure on migratory schedule of arctic birds migrating sympatrically.

Early Breeding Conditions Followed by Reduced Breeding Success Despite Timely Arrival in an Alpine Migratory Songbird

Timing reproduction to coincide with optimal environmental conditions is key for many organisms living in seasonal habitats. Advance in the onset of spring is a particular challenge to migratory birds that must time their arrival without knowing the conditions on the breeding grounds. This is amplified at high elevations where resource availability, which is linked to snowmelt and vegetation development, shows much annual variation. With the aim of exploring the effects of variability in the onset of local resource availability on reproduction, we compared key life history events in an Alpine population of the Northern Wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe) between years of contrasting timing of snowmelt. Based on remote sensed images, we identified 2020 as an exceptionally early snowmelt and green-up year compared to the preceding year and the long-term average. Individuals tracked with light-level geolocators arrived well before the snowmelt in 2020 and clutch initiation dates across the population were earlier in 2020 compared to 2019. However, observations from a citizen science database and nest monitoring data showed that the arrival-breeding interval was shorter in 2020, thus the advance in timing lagged behind the environmental conditions. While hatching success was similar in both years, fledging success was significantly reduced in 2020. A trophic mismatch in early 2020 could be a possible explanation for the reduced reproductive success, but alternative explanations cannot be excluded. Our results show that, despite the timely arrival at the breeding grounds and a contraction of the arrival-breeding interval, Wheatears were not able to advance breeding activities in synchrony with environmental conditions in 2020. Earlier reproductive seasons are expected to become more frequent in the future. We show that the negative effects of changing seasons in Alpine migratory birds might be similar to birds breeding at high latitudes, despite their shorter migratory distance.

Exposure to artificial light at night accelerates but does not override latitude-dependent seasonal reproductive response in a North American songbird

In the modern era of industrialization, illuminated nights have become a common defining feature of human-occupied environments, particularly cities. Artificial light at night (ALAN) imposes several known negative impacts on the neuroendocrine system, metabolism, and seasonal reproduction of species living in the wild. However, we know little about the impact of ALAN on populations of birds that either live year-round in the same location or move to different latitudes across seasons. To test whether ALAN has a differing impact on the reproductive timing of bird populations that winter in sympatry but breed at different latitudes, we monitored sedentary and migratory male dark-eyed juncos that were or were not exposed to low intensity (∼2.5 ± 0.5 lux) ALAN. All groups were held in common conditions and day length was gradually increased to mimic natural day length changes (NDL). We assessed seasonal reproductive response from initiation to termination of the breeding cycle. As expected based on earlier research, the sedentary birds exhibited earlier gonadal recrudescence and terminated breeding later than the migratory birds. In addition, resident and migrant birds exposed to ALAN initiated gonadal recrudescence earlier and terminated reproductive events sooner as compared to their conspecifics experiencing NDL. Importantly, the difference in the reproductive timing of sedentary and migratory populations was maintained even when exposed to ALAN. This variation in the seasonal reproductive timing may likely have a genetic basis or be the result of early developmental effects imposed due to different light regimes related to the latitude of origin. This study reveals first that ALAN accelerated reproductive development across both migrants and residents and second that latitude-dependent variation in reproductive timing is maintained despite exposure to ALAN. These results corroborate a relationship between latitude, population, and reproductive timing while also revealing ALAN's impact on seasonal reproductive timing. This study reveals that, ALAN accelerated reproductive development but maintained latitude-dependent variation in reproductive timing across both migrant and resident bird populations.

The use of nocturnal flights for barrier crossing in a diurnally migrating songbird

BACKGROUND

The migration patterns of land birds can generally be divided into those species that migrate principally during the day and those that migrate during the night. Some species may show individual plasticity in the use of day or night flight, particularly when crossing large, open-water or desert barriers. However, individual plasticity in circadian patterns of migratory flights in diurnally migrating songbirds has never been investigated.

METHODS

We used high precision GPS tracking of a diurnal, migratory swallow, the purple martin (Progne subis), to determine whether individuals were flexible in their spring migration strategies to include some night flight, particularly at barrier crossing.

RESULTS

Most (91%) of individuals made large (sometimes > 1000 km), open-water crossings of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico that included the use of night flight. 32% of all water crossings were initiated at night, demonstrating that night flight is not only used to complete large crossings but may confer other advantages for diurnal birds. Birds were not more likely to initiate crossings with supportive winds, however crossings were more likely when they reduced travel distances. Our results are consistent with diurnal birds using night flight to help achieve time- and energy-savings through 'short cuts' at barrier crossings, at times and locations when foraging opportunities are not available.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, our results demonstrate the use of nocturnal flight and a high degree of individual plasticity in migration strategies on a circadian scale in a species generally considered to be a diurnal migrant. Nocturnal flights at barrier crossing may provide time and energy savings where foraging opportunities are low in an otherwise diurnal strategy. Future research should target how diel foraging and refueling strategies support nocturnal flights and barrier crossing in this and other diurnal species.

Pre-migration artificial light at night advances the spring migration timing of a trans-hemispheric migratory songbird

Artificial light at night (ALAN) is increasing at a high rate across the globe and can cause shifts in animal phenology due to the alteration of perceived photoperiod. Birds in particular may be highly impacted due to their use of extra-retinal photoreceptors, as well as the use of photoperiodic cues to time life events such as reproduction, moult, and migration. For the first time, we used light-logging geolocators to determine the amount of ALAN experienced by long-distance migratory songbirds (purple martin; Progne subis) while at their overwintering sites in South America to measure its potential relationship with spring migration timing. Almost a third of birds (48/155; 31%) were subjected to at least one night with ALAN over 30 days prior to spring migration. Birds that experienced the highest number of nights (10+) with artificial light departed for spring migration on average 8 days earlier and arrived 8 days earlier at their breeding sites compared to those that experienced no artificial light. Early spring migration timing due to pre-migration ALAN experienced at overwintering sites could lead to mistiming with environmental conditions and insect abundance on the migratory route and at breeding sites, potentially impacting survival and/or reproductive success. Such effects would be particularly detrimental to species already exhibiting steep population declines such as purple martins and other migratory aerial insectivores.

Warmer April Temperatures on Breeding Grounds Promote Earlier Nesting in a Long-Distance Migratory Bird, the Prothonotary Warbler

Global climate change and warming are altering hemispheric and local weather patterns. Altered weather patterns have great potential to affect the phenology of life history events, such as the initiation of breeding in organisms that reproduce seasonally. Long-distance migratory birds may be particularly challenged by changes in local weather on breeding grounds because they arrive from distant locations and must commence breeding when conditions are appropriate. Here we explore the effects of local temperature on first egg dates and annual productivity in a long-distance Neotropical migratory songbird, the prothonotary warbler Protonotaria citrea. We present results from a 20-year (1994 to 2013) study documenting the detailed nesting activities of a color-marked population (average of 155 individual females each year) of warblers in southern Illinois, United States. The warblers typically arrive in April and start breeding in late April and May in our study system. We tested for an effect of local average April daily temperature and female age on first egg dates, total number of offspring produced per female, and the probability of fledging two broods. We found that warmer April temperatures promoted earlier first egg dates and higher average annual productivity in the warblers. On average, older females had earlier first egg dates than 1-year-old females, but both age groups responded similarly to local April temperatures. The reproductive gains associated with earlier first egg dates in warmer years stemmed from an increased probability of successfully fledging two broods, suggesting that earlier first egg dates do not currently create a mismatch with food (insect) resources. Earliest arrival dates of warblers to the region of our study system were not affected by local April temperatures, suggesting that females vary their first egg date based on conditions they experience/assess after their arrival. Whereas these birds currently adjust the timing of their breeding and actually produce more offspring in warmer years, continued global warming may eventually upset the current balance between arrival dates, food resources, and the commencement of nesting.

Fitness consequences of different migratory strategies in partially migratory populations: A multi-taxa meta-analysis

Partial migration—wherein migratory and non‐migratory individuals exist within the same population—represents a behavioural dimorphism; for it to persist over time, both strategies should yield equal individual fitness. This balance may be maintained through trade‐offs where migrants gain survival benefits by avoiding unfavourable conditions, while residents gain breeding benefits from early access to resources.

There has been little overarching quantitative analysis of the evidence for this fitness balance. As migrants—especially long‐distance migrants—may be particularly vulnerable to environmental change, it is possible that recent anthropogenic impacts could drive shifts in fitness balances within these populations.

We tested these predictions using a multi‐taxa meta‐analysis. Of 2,939 reviewed studies, 23 contained suitable information for meta‐analysis, yielding 129 effect sizes.

Of these, 73% (n = 94) reported higher resident fitness, 22% (n = 28) reported higher migrant fitness, and 5% (n = 7) reported equal fitness. Once weighted for precision, we found balanced fitness benefits across the entire dataset, but a consistently higher fitness of residents over migrants in birds and herpetofauna (the best‐sampled groups). Residency benefits were generally associated with survival, not breeding success, and increased with the number of years of data over which effect sizes were calculated, suggesting deviations from fitness parity are not due to sampling artefacts.

A pervasive survival benefit to residency documented in recent literature could indicate that increased exposure to threats associated with anthropogenic change faced by migrating individuals may be shifting the relative fitness balance between strategies.

Earlier colony arrival but no trend in hatching timing in two congeneric seabirds (Uria spp.) across the North Atlantic

A global analysis recently showed that seabird breeding phenology (as the timing of egg-laying and hatching) does not, on average, respond to temperature changes or advance with time (Keogan et al. 2018 Nat. Clim. Change 8, 313-318). This group, the most threatened of all birds, is therefore prone to spatio-temporal mismatches with their food resources. Yet, other aspects of the breeding phenology may also have a marked influence on breeding success, such as the arrival date of adults at the breeding site following winter migration. Here, we used a large tracking dataset of two congeneric seabirds breeding in 14 colonies across 18° latitudes, to show that arrival date at the colony was highly variable between colonies and species (ranging 80 days) and advanced 1.4 days/year while timing of egg-laying remained unchanged, resulting in an increasing pre-laying duration between 2009 and 2018. Thus, we demonstrate that potentially not all components of seabird breeding phenology are insensitive to changing environmental conditions.

Differential changes in the onset of spring across US National Wildlife Refuges and North American migratory bird flyways

Warming temperatures associated with climate change can have indirect effects on migratory birds that rely on seasonally available food resources and habitats that vary across spatial and temporal scales. We used two heat-based indices of spring onset, the First Leaf Index (FLI) and the First Bloom Index (FBI), as proxies of habitat change for the period 1901 to 2012 at three spatial scales: the US National Wildlife Refuge System; the four major bird migratory flyways in North America; and the seasonal ranges (i.e., breeding and non-breeding grounds) of two migratory bird species, Blue-winged Warbler (Vermivora cyanoptera) and Whooping Crane (Grus americana). Our results show that relative to the historical range of variability, the onset of spring is now earlier in 76% of all wildlife refuges and extremely early (i.e., exceeding 95% of historical conditions) in 49% of refuges. In all flyways but the Pacific, the rate of spring advance is generally greater at higher latitudes than at lower latitudes. This differential rate of advance in spring onset is most pronounced in the Atlantic flyway, presumably because of a "warming hole" in the southeastern US. Both FLI and FBI have advanced markedly in the breeding ranges-but not the non-breeding ranges-of the two selected bird species, albeit with considerable intra-range variation. Differences among species in terms of migratory patterns and the location and extent of seasonal habitats, as well as shifts in habitat conditions over time, may complicate predictions of the vulnerability of migratory birds to climate change effects. This study provides insight into how differential shifts in the phenology of disparate but linked habitats could inform local- to landscape-scale management strategies for the conservation of migratory bird populations.

Unravelling migratory connections: the next level

Migration is widespread among birds, and the strength of the link between the breeding and wintering grounds, migratory connectivity, influences many ecological and evolutionary processes. Despite its importance, migratory connectivity is poorly estimated for most species. Traditionally, visual observations and bird ringing have been used to monitor migration, but these methods require more effort for relatively little return. Genetic markers and stable isotope signatures have increasingly been used to study connectivity. Each approach has its distinct strengths and weaknesses, and as is often the case, a combination may yield the most insight. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Rundel and colleagues (2013) present a novel Bayesian statistical framework in which genetics and stable isotope data can be combined to improve the assignment of individuals to different winter or breeding regions. The development of such new statistical methods combined with the increasing number and ease of access of isotopic and genetic data sets will greatly enhance our understanding of migratory connectivity. Add to this the developments of miniature devices to track movements of individuals, and the field is destined to make major progression in the decades to come.