Spatial analysis of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Zibo City, China, 2009-2012

Potential novel Colpodella spp. (phylum Apicomplexa) and high prevalence of Colpodella spp. in goat-attached Haemaphysalis longicornis ticks in Shandong province, China

Tick-borne Apicomplexan parasites pose a significant threat to both public health and animal husbandry. Identifying potential pathogenic parasites and gathering their epidemiological data are essential for prospectively preventing and controlling infections. In the present study, genomic DNA of ticks collected from two goat flocks (Goatflock1 and Goatflock2) and one dog group (Doggroup) were extracted and the 18S rRNA gene of Babesia/Theileria/Colpodella spp. was amplified by PCR and sequenced. Phylogenetic analysis was conducted based on the obtained sequences. The differences in pathogen positive rates between ticks of different groups were statistically analyzed using the Chi-square or continuity-adjusted Chi-square test. As a result, two pathogenic Theileria (T.) luwenshuni genotypes, one novel pathogenic Colpodella sp. HLJ genotype, and two potential novel Colpodella spp. (referred to as Colpodella sp. struthionis and Colpodella sp. yiyuansis in this study) were identified in the Haemaphysalis (H.) longicornis ticks. Ticks of Goatflock2 had a significantly higher positive rate of Colpodella spp. than those from Goatflock1 (χ2=92.10; P = 8.2 × 10-22) and Doggroup (χ2=42.34; P = 7.7 × 10-11), and a significantly higher positive rate of T. luwenshuni than Doggroup (χ2=5.38; P = 0.02). However, the positive rates of T. luwenshuni between Goatflock1 and Goatflock2 were not significantly different (χ2=2.02; P = 0.16), and so as the positive rates of both pathogens between Goatflock1 and Doggroup groups (P > 0.05). For either Colpodella spp. or T. luwenshuni, no significant difference was found in prevalence between male and female ticks. These findings underscore the potential importance of Colpodella spp. in domestic animal-attached ticks, as our study revealed two novel Colpodella spp. and identified Colpodella spp. in H. longicornis for the first time. The study also sheds light on goats' potential roles in the transmission of Colpodella spp. to ticks and provides crucial epidemiological data of pathogenic Theileria and Colpodella. These data may help physicians, veterinarians, and public health officers prepare suitable detection and treatment methods and develop prevention and control strategies.

The changing epidemiology of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Southeastern China during 1963-2020: A retrospective analysis of surveillance data

Background

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease caused by hantavirus which was endemic Zhejiang Province, China. In this study, we aim to explore the changing epidemiology of HFRS in Zhejiang, identify high-risk areas and populations, and evaluate relevant policies and interventions to better improve HFRS control and prevention.

Methods

Surveillance data on HFRS during 1963–2020 in Zhejiang Province were extracted from Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention archives and the Chinese Notifiable Disease Reporting System. The changing epidemiological characteristics of HFRS including seasonal distribution, geographical distribution, and demographic features, were analyzed using joinpoint regression, autoregressive integrated moving average model, descriptive statistical methods, and Spatio-temporal cluster analysis.

Results

From 1963 to 2020, 114 071 HFRS cases and 1269 deaths were reported in Zhejiang Province. The incidence increased sharply from 1973 and peaked in 1986, then decreased steadily and maintained a stable incidence from 2004. HFRS cases were reported in all 11 prefecture-level cities of Zhejiang Province from 1963 to 2020. The joint region (Shengzhou, Xinchang, Tiantai, and surrounding areas), and Kaihua County are the most seriously affected regions throughout time. After 1990, the first HFRS incidence peak was in May-June, with another one from November to January. Most HFRS cases occurred in 21- (26.48%) and 30- years group (24.25%) from 1991 to 2004, but 41- (25.75%) and 51-years (23.30%) had the highest proportion from 2005 to 2020. Farmers accounted for most cases (78.10%), and cases are predominantly males with a male-to-female ratio of 2.6:1. It was found that the median time from onset to diagnosis was 6.5 days (IQR 3.75–10.42), and the time from diagnosis to disease report was significantly shortened after 2011.

Conclusions

We observed dynamic changes in the seasonal distribution, geographical distribution, and demographic features of HFRS, which should be well considered in the development of control and prevention strategies in future. Additional researches are warranted to elucidate the environmental, meteorological, and social factors associated with HFRS incidence in different decades.

This study conducted a long-term and systematic study on the epidemiological characteristics of HFRS in Zhejiang Province from 1963 to 2020 through a combination of time and space analysis and epidemiology, aiming to analyze the distribution characteristics of HFRS and explore the high incidence of epidemics in Zhejiang Province Regional influence. From 1963 to 2020, all 11 prefecture-level cities in Zhejiang Province reported HFRS cases, and the morbidity and mortality rates decreased significantly. However, the geographical distribution of endemic areas has been expanding to eastern Zhejiang Province. Moreover, the age of high-risk groups increases over time. Although the incidence rate has declined in recent years, HFRS is still a huge threat to people’s health. As the incidence rate changes, some epidemiological characteristics have also changed. Comprehensive interventions should also be adjusted, including rodent control in endemic areas, health education, vaccination, and improved detection and diagnosis capabilities for HFRS epidemiological changes.

Epidemiological and aetiological characteristics of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Sichuan Province, China, 2011-2017

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) remains a threat to the Asia-Pacific region. The epidemiological characteristics and pathogen spectrum of HFMD vary with space and time. These variations are crucial for HFMD interventions but poorly understood in Sichuan Province, China, particularly after the introduction of the EV-A71 vaccine. Using descriptive methods, regression analyses, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and space-time scan statistics, we analysed the epidemiological and aetiological characteristics of HFMD surveillance data in Sichuan Province between 2011 and 2017 to identify spatio-temporal variations. The dominant serotypes of HFMD have changed from enterovirus 71 and coxsackievirus A16 to other enteroviruses since 2013. The seasonal pattern of HFMD showed two peaks generally occurring from April to July and November to December; however, the seasonal pattern varied by prefecture and enterovirus serotype. From 2011 to 2017, spatio-temporal clusters were increasingly concentrated in Chengdu, with several small clusters in northeast Sichuan. The clusters observed in southern Sichuan from 2011 to 2015 disappeared in 2016–2017. These findings highlight the importance of pathogen surveillance and vaccination strategies for HFMD interventions; future prevention and control of HFMD should focus on Chengdu and its vicinity.

Effects of climate factors on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Changchun, 2013 to 2017

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease caused by hantaviruses (HVs). Climate factors have a significant impact on the transmission of HFRS. Here, we characterized the dynamic temporal trend of HFRS and identified the roles of climate factors in its transmission in Changchun, China.Surveillance data of HFRS cases and data on related environmental variables from 2013 to 2017 were collected. A principal components regression (PCR) model was used to quantify the relationship between climate factors and transmission of HFRS.During 2013 to 2017, a distinctly declining temporal trend of annual HFRS incidence was identified. Four principal components were extracted, with a cumulative contribution rate of 89.282%. The association between HFRS epidemics and climate factors was better explained by the PCR model (F = 10.050, P <.001, adjusted R = 0.456) than by the general multiple regression model (F = 2.748, P <.005, adjusted R = 0.397).The monthly trends of HFRS were positively correlated with the mean wind velocity but negatively correlated with the mean temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, and accumulative precipitation of the different previous months. The study results may be useful for the development of HFRS preventive initiatives that are customized for Changchun regarding specific climate environments.

Genetic Diversity and the Spatio-Temporal Analyses of Hantaviruses in Shandong Province, China

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a serious public health problem in Shandong Province, China. We conducted an epizootiologic investigation and phylogeographic and phylodynamic analyses to infer the phylogenetic relationships of hantaviruses in space and time, and gain further insights into their evolutionary dynamics in Shandong Province. Our data indicated that the Seoul virus (SEOV) is distributed throughout Shandong, whereas Hantaan virus (HTNV) co-circulates with SEOV in the eastern and southern areas of Shandong. Their distribution showed strong geographic clustering. In addition, our analyses indicated multiple evolutionary paths, long-distance transmission, and demographic expansion events for SEOV in some areas. Selection pressure analyses revealed that negative selection on hantaviruses acted as the principal evolutionary force, whereas a little evidence of positive selection exists. We found that several positively selected sites were located within major functional regions and indicated the importance of these residues for adaptive evolution of hantaviruses.

Using a distributed lag non-linear model to identify impact of temperature variables on haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Shandong Province

Haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is transmitted to humans mainly by rodents and this transmission could be easily influenced by meteorological factors. Given the long-term changes in climate associated with global climate change, it is important to better identify the effects of meteorological factors of HFRS in epidemic areas. Shandong province is one of the most seriously suffered provinces of HFRS in China. Daily HFRS data and meteorological data from 2007 to 2012 in Shandong province were applied. Quasi-Poisson regression with the distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate the influences of mean temperature and Diurnal temperature range (DTR) on HFRS by sex, adjusting for the effects of relative humidity, precipitation, day-of-the-week, long-term trends and seasonality. A total of 6707 HFRS cases were reported in our study. The two peaks of HFRS were from March to June and from October to December, particularly, the latter peak in 2012. The estimated effects of mean temperature and DTR on HFRS were non-linear. The immediate and strong effect of low temperature and high DTR on HFRS was found. The lowest temperature -8.86°C at lag 0 days indicated the largest related relative risk (RRs) with the reference (14.85 °C), respectively, 1.46 (95% CI 1.11-1.90) for total cases, 1.33 (95% CI 1.00-1.78) for the males and 1.76 (95% CI 1.12-2.79) for the females. Highest DTR was associated with a higher risk on HFRS, the largest RRs (95% CI) were obtained when DTR = 15.97 °C with a reference at 8.62 °C, with 1.26 (0.96-1.64) for total cases and 1.52 (0.97-2.38) for the female at lag 0 days, 1.22 (1.05-1.41) for the male at lag 5 days. Non-linear lag effects of mean temperature and DTR on HFRS were identified and there were slight differences for different sexes.

Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Influencing Factors of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS) in Hubei Province (China) between 2005 and 2014

Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS) is considered as a globally distributed infectious disease, which results in many deaths annually in Hubei Province, China. The outbreak of HFRS is usually characterized with spatio-temporal heterogeneity and is seasonally distributed. Further, it might also be impacted by the influencing factors such as socio-economic and geographical environment. To better understand and predict the outbreak of HFRS in the Hubei Province, the spatio-temporal pattern and influencing factors were investigated in this study. Moran's I Index value was adopted in spatial global autocorrelation analysis to identify the overall spatio-temporal pattern of HFRS outbreak. Kulldorff scan statistical analysis was performed to further identify the changing trends of the clustering patterns of HFRS outbreak. Spearman's rank correlation analysis was used to explore the possible influencing factors on HFRS epidemics such as climate and geographic. The results demonstrated that HFRS outbreak in Hubei Province decreased from 2005 to 2012 in general while increasing slightly from 2012 to 2014. The spatial and temporal scan statistical analysis indicated that HFRS epidemic was temporally clustered in summer and autumn from 2005 to 2014 except 2008 and 2011. The seasonal epidemic pattern of HFRS in Hubei Province was characterized by a bimodal pattern (March to May and September to November) while peaks often occurring in the spring time. SEOV-type HFRS was presumed to influence more on the total number of HFRS incidence than HTNV-type HFRS do. The average humidity and human population density were the main influencing factors during these years. HFRS outbreaks were more in plains than in other areas of Hubei Province. We did not find that whether the terrain of the wetland (water system) plays a significant role in the outbreak of HFRS incidence. With a better understanding of rodent infection rate, socio-economic status and ecological environment characteristics, this study may help to reduce the outbreak of HFRS disease.

Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome, Zibo City, China, 2006-2014

Analysis of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome cases in Zibo City, China, during 2006-2014 showed that it occurred year-round. Peaks in spring and fall/winter were caused by Hantaan and Seoul viruses, respectively. Rodent hosts were the striped field mouse for Hantaan virus and the brown rat and house mouse for Seoul virus.

Prevalence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Yiyuan County, China, 2005-2014

Background

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is highly endemic in mainland China, where human cases account for 90 % of the total global cases. Yiyuan County is one of the most serious affected areas in China. Therefore, there is an urgent need for monitoring and predicting HFRS incidence in Yiyuan to make the control of HFRS more effective.

Methods

The study was based on the reported cases of HFRS from the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. The demographic and spatial distributions of HFRS in Yiyuan were established. Then we fit autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models and predict the HFRS epidemic trend.

Results

There were 362 cases reported in Yiyuan during the 10-year study period. The human infections in the fall and winter reflected a seasonal characteristic pattern of Hantaan virus (HTNV) transmission. The best model was ARIMA (2, 1, 1) × (0, 1, 1)₁₂ (AIC value 516.86) with a high validity.

Conclusion

The ARIMA model fits the fluctuations in HFRS frequency and it can be used for future forecasting when applied to HFRS prevention and control.

Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome, Zibo City, China, 2006-2014

Analysis of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome cases in Zibo City, China, during 2006-2014 showed that it occurred year-round. Peaks in spring and fall/winter were caused by Hantaan and Seoul viruses, respectively. Rodent hosts were the striped field mouse for Hantaan virus and the brown rat and house mouse for Seoul virus.

Using an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model to Predict the Incidence of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Zibo, China, 2004-2014

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is highly endemic in mainland China, where human cases account for 90% of the total global cases. Zibo City is one of the most seriously affected areas in Shandong Province, China. Therefore, there is an urgent need for monitoring and predicting HFRS incidence in Zibo to make the control of HFRS more effective. In this study, we constructed an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for monthly HFRS incidence in Zibo from 2004 to 2013. The ARIMA (3,1,1) × (2,1,1)12 model is reliable with a high validity, which can be used to predict the next year's HFRS incidence in Zibo. The forecast results suggest that the HFRS incidence in Zibo will experience a slight growth in the next year.

Effects of Climate and Rodent Factors on Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Chongqing, China, 1997-2008

China has the highest global incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), constituting 90% of the cases in the world. Chongqing, located in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, has been experiencing differences in the occurrence of HFRS from 1997 to 2008. The current study was designed to explore the effects of climate and rodent factors on the transmission of HFRS in Chongqing. Data on monthly HFRS cases, rodent strains, and climatic factors were collected from 1997 to 2008. Spatio-temporal analysis indicated that most HFRS cases were clustered in central Chongqing and that the incidence of HFRS decreased from 1997 to 2008. Poisson regression models showed that temperature (with lagged months of 0 and 5) and rainfall (with 2 lagged months) were key climatic factors contributing to the transmission of HFRS. A zero-inflated negative binomial model revealed that rodent density was also significantly associated with the occurrence of HFRS in the Changshou district. The monthly trend in HFRS incidence was positively associated with rodent density and rainfall and negatively associated with temperature. Possible mechanisms are proposed through which construction of the dam influenced the incidence of HFRS in Chongqing. The findings of this study may contribute to the development of early warning systems for the control and prevention of HFRS in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region.

Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China, 2005-2012

Background

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease caused by many serotypes of hantaviruses. In China, HFRS has been recognized as a severe public health problem with 90% of the total reported cases in the world. This study describes the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS cases in China and identifies the regions, time, and populations at highest risk, which could help the planning and implementation of key preventative measures.

Methods

Data on all reported HFRS cases at the county level from January 2005 to December 2012 were collected from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Geographic Information System-based spatiotemporal analyses including Local Indicators of Spatial Association and Kulldorff's space-time scan statistic were performed to detect local high-risk space-time clusters of HFRS in China. In addition, cases from high-risk and low-risk counties were compared to identify significant demographic differences.

Results

A total of 100,868 cases were reported during 2005–2012 in mainland China. There were significant variations in the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS. HFRS cases occurred most frequently in June, November, and December. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of HFRS incidence during the study periods, with Moran's I values ranging from 0.46 to 0.56 (P<0.05). Several distinct HFRS cluster areas were identified, mainly concentrated in northeastern, central, and eastern of China. Compared with cases from low-risk areas, a higher proportion of cases were younger, non-farmer, and floating residents in high-risk counties.

Conclusions

This study identified significant space-time clusters of HFRS in China during 2005–2012 indicating that preventative strategies for HFRS should be particularly focused on the northeastern, central, and eastern of China to achieve the most cost-effective outcomes.

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne viral disease caused by many serotypes of hantaviruses. In China, HFRS has been recognized as a severe public health problem and accounts for 90% of the reported cases in the world. We examined the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS cases in China during 2005–2012 and compared characteristics between cases from high-risk and low-risk counties. Several distinct HFRS cluster areas were identified, concentrated in northeastern, central, and eastern of China. Compared with cases from low-risk areas, a higher proportion of cases were younger, non-farmer, and floating residents in high-risk counties. These findings suggest preventative strategies for HFRS should be focused on the identified clusters in order to achieve the most cost-effective outcomes.