Dissolution dominating calcification process in polar pteropods close to the point of aragonite undersaturation

The impact of aragonite saturation variability on shelled pteropods: An attribution study in the California Current System

Observations from the California Current System (CalCS) indicate that the long-term trend in ocean acidification (OA) and the naturally occurring corrosive conditions for the CaCO3 mineral aragonite (saturation state Ω < 1) have a damaging effect on shelled pteropods, a keystone group of calcifying organisms in the CalCS. Concern is heightened by recent findings suggesting that shell formation and developmental progress are already impacted when Ω falls below 1.5. Here, we quantify the impact of low Ω conditions on pteropods using an individual-based model (IBM) with life-stage-specific mortality, growth, and behavior in a high-resolution regional hindcast simulation of the CalCS between 1984 and 2019. Special attention is paid to attributing this impact to different processes that lead to such low Ω conditions, namely natural variability, long-term trend, and extreme events. We find that much of the observed damage in the CalCS, and specifically >70% of the shell CaCO3 loss, is due to the pteropods' exposure to naturally occurring low Ω conditions as a result of their diel vertical migration (DVM). Over the hindcast period, their exposure to damaging waters (Ω < 1.5) increases from 9% to 49%, doubling their shell CaCO3 loss, and increasing their mortality by ~40%. Most of this increased exposure is due to the shoaling of low Ω waters driven by the long-term trend in OA. Extreme OA events amplify this increase by ~40%. Our approach can quantify the health of pteropod populations under shifting environmental conditions, and attribute changes in fitness or population structure to changes in the stressor landscape across hierarchical time scales.

Severe 21st-century ocean acidification in Antarctic Marine Protected Areas

Antarctic coastal waters are home to several established or proposed Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) supporting exceptional biodiversity. Despite being threatened by anthropogenic climate change, uncertainties remain surrounding the future ocean acidification (OA) of these waters. Here we present 21st-century projections of OA in Antarctic MPAs under four emission scenarios using a high-resolution ocean-sea ice-biogeochemistry model with realistic ice-shelf geometry. By 2100, we project pH declines of up to 0.36 (total scale) for the top 200 m. Vigorous vertical mixing of anthropogenic carbon produces severe OA throughout the water column in coastal waters of proposed and existing MPAs. Consequently, end-of-century aragonite undersaturation is ubiquitous under the three highest emission scenarios. Given the cumulative threat to marine ecosystems by environmental change and activities such as fishing, our findings call for strong emission-mitigation efforts and further management strategies to reduce pressures on ecosystems, such as the continuation and expansion of Antarctic MPAs.

Surface Passivation by Embedment of Polyphosphate Inhibits the Aragonite-to-Calcite Thermodynamic Pump

We monitored the conversion of aragonite to calcite in water by comparing single and mixed polymorph suspensions. We demonstrate that the enhanced aragonite-to-calcite conversion in mixed polymorph suspensions is dramatically inhibited by adding polyphosphate (sodium hexametaphosphate). 13C and 31P solid-state magic angle spinning (MAS) NMR and attenuated total reflectance Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectra allow us to follow quantitatively these effects as imparted by the dissolution-recrystallization processes. 31P{13C} and 13C{31P} rotational echo double resonance (REDOR)NMR experiments reveal coprecipitated phosphate that is embedded only within the surfaces of both polymorphs during the initial dissolution and recrystallization processes, causing passivation that arrests phase conversion.

Organismal Responses to Coastal Acidification Informed by Interrelating Erosion, Roundness and Growth of Gastropod Shells

urrent understanding of how calcifying organisms respond to externally forced oceanic and coastal acidification (OCA) is largely based on short-term, controlled laboratory or mesocosm experiments. Studies on organismal responses to acidification (reduced carbonate saturation and pH) in the wild, where animals simultaneously interact with a range of biotic and abiotic circumstances, are limited in scope and interpretation. The present study aimed to better understand how gastropod shell attributes and their interrelations can inform about responses to coastal acidification. We investigated shell chemical erosion, shell roundness, and growth rate of Planaxis sulcatus snails, which are locally exposed to acidified and non-acidified rocky intertidal water. We tested a new approach to quantifying shell erosion based on the spiral suture length (EI, erosion index) and found that shell erosion mirrored field acidification conditions. Exposure to acidification caused shells to become rounder (width/length). Field growth rate, determined from apertural margin extension of marked and later recaptured snails, was strongly negatively related to both shell erosion and shell roundness. Since different shell attributes are indicative of different relationships-shell erosion is an extrinsic passive marker of acidification, and shell roundness and growth rate are intrinsic performance responders-analyzing their interrelations can imply causation, enhance predictive power, and bolster interpretation confidence. This study contributes to the methodology and interpretation of findings of trait-based field investigations to understand organismal responses to coastal acidification.

Clay-shielded estuarine gastropods are better protected against environmental acidification than unshielded individuals

The effects of progressive global acidification on the shells of marine organisms is a topic of much current interest. Most studies on molluscan shell resistance to dissolution consider the carbonate mineral component, with less known about the protective role of the outer organic periostracum. Outer-shell resistance would seem especially important to gastropods living in carbonate-undersaturated and calcium-deficient estuarine waters that threaten shell dissolution and constrain CaCO₃ production. We tested this prediction using gastropods from an acidified estuarine population (Neripteron violaceum) that form a clay shield outside the periostracum. Specifically, we aimed to show that the carbonate shell component lacks integrity, that the formation of the clay shield is directed by the organism, and that the clay shield functions to protect against shell dissolution. We found no evidence for any specific carbonate dissolution resistance strategy in the thin, predominantly aragonitic shells of these gastropods. Shield formation was directed by an ornamented periostracum which strongly bonded illite elements (e.g., Fe, Al and S), that become available through suspension in the water column. In unshielded individuals, CaCO₃ erosion was initiated randomly across the shell (not age-related) and progressed rapidly when the periostracum was breached. A light reflectance technique showed qualitatively that shield consolidation is negatively-related to shell erosion. These findings support a conceptual framework for gastropod outer-shell responses to acidification that considers both environmental and evolutionary constraints on shell construction. We describe a novel strategy for shell protection against dissolution, highlighting the diversity of mechanisms available to gastropods facing extreme coastal acidification.

Natural Analogues in pH Variability and Predictability across the Coastal Pacific Estuaries: Extrapolation of the Increased Oyster Dissolution under Increased pH Amplitude and Low Predictability Related to Ocean Acidification

Coastal-estuarine habitats are rapidly changing due to global climate change, with impacts influenced by the variability of carbonate chemistry conditions. However, our understanding of the responses of ecologically and economically important calcifiers to pH variability and temporal variation is limited, particularly with respect to shell-building processes. We investigated the mechanisms driving biomineralogical and physiological responses in juveniles of introduced (Pacific; Crassostrea gigas) and native (Olympia; Ostrea lurida) oysters under flow-through experimental conditions over a six-week period that simulate current and future conditions: static control and low pH (8.0 and 7.7); low pH with fluctuating (24-h) amplitude (7.7 ± 0.2 and 7.7 ± 0.5); and high-frequency (12-h) fluctuating (8.0 ± 0.2) treatment. The oysters showed physiological tolerance in vital processes, including calcification, respiration, clearance, and survival. However, shell dissolution significantly increased with larger amplitudes of pH variability compared to static pH conditions, attributable to the longer cumulative exposure to lower pH conditions, with the dissolution threshold of pH 7.7 with 0.2 amplitude. Moreover, the high-frequency treatment triggered significantly greater dissolution, likely because of the oyster's inability to respond to the unpredictable frequency of variations. The experimental findings were extrapolated to provide context for conditions existing in several Pacific coastal estuaries, with time series analyses demonstrating unique signatures of pH predictability and variability in these habitats, indicating potentially benefiting effects on fitness in these habitats. These implications are crucial for evaluating the suitability of coastal habitats for aquaculture, adaptation, and carbon dioxide removal strategies.

WOS, Steinberg DK, Swadling KM, Tarling GA, Thorpe SE, Veytia D, Ward P, Weldrick CK, Yang G. Status, Change, and Futures of Zooplankton in the Southern Ocean

In the Southern Ocean, several zooplankton taxonomic groups, euphausiids, copepods, salps and pteropods, are notable because of their biomass and abundance and their roles in maintaining food webs and ecosystem structure and function, including the provision of globally important ecosystem services. These groups are consumers of microbes, primary and secondary producers, and are prey for fishes, cephalopods, seabirds, and marine mammals. In providing the link between microbes, primary production, and higher trophic levels these taxa influence energy flows, biological production and biomass, biogeochemical cycles, carbon flux and food web interactions thereby modulating the structure and functioning of ecosystems. Additionally, Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) and various fish species are harvested by international fisheries. Global and local drivers of change are expected to affect the dynamics of key zooplankton species, which may have potentially profound and wide-ranging implications for Southern Ocean ecosystems and the services they provide. Here we assess the current understanding of the dominant metazoan zooplankton within the Southern Ocean, including Antarctic krill and other key euphausiid, copepod, salp and pteropod species. We provide a systematic overview of observed and potential future responses of these taxa to a changing Southern Ocean and the functional relationships by which drivers may impact them. To support future ecosystem assessments and conservation and management strategies, we also identify priorities for Southern Ocean zooplankton research.

Aragonite dissolution protects calcite at the seafloor

In the open ocean, calcium carbonates are mainly found in two mineral forms. Calcite, the least soluble, is widespread at the seafloor, while aragonite, the more soluble, is rarely preserved in marine sediments. Despite its greater solubility, research has shown that aragonite, whose contribution to global pelagic calcification could be at par with that of calcite, is able to reach the deep-ocean. If large quantities of aragonite settle and dissolve at the seafloor, this represents a large source of alkalinity that buffers the deep ocean and favours the preservation of less soluble calcite, acting as a deep-sea, carbonate version of galvanization. Here, we investigate the role of aragonite dissolution on the early diagenesis of calcite-rich sediments using a novel 3D, micrometric-scale reactive-transport model combined with 3D, X-ray tomography structures of natural aragonite and calcite shells. Results highlight the important role of diffusive transport in benthic calcium carbonate dissolution, in agreement with recent work. We show that, locally, aragonite fluxes to the seafloor could be sufficient to suppress calcite dissolution in the top layer of the seabed, possibly causing calcite recrystallization. As aragonite producers are particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification, the proposed galvanizing effect of aragonite could be weakened in the future, and calcite dissolution at the sediment-water interface will have to cover a greater share of CO₂ neutralization.

Results from a new model suggest that a deep-sea, carbonate version of galvanization, in which aragonite sacrifies itself to protect the underlying calcite, could explain the predominance of calcite over aragonite in the sediment record.

The Dissolution Rate of CaCO3 in the Ocean

The dissolution of CaCO₃ minerals in the ocean is a fundamental part of the marine alkalinity and carbon cycles. While there have been decades of work aimed at deriving the relationship between dissolution rate and mineral saturation state (a so-called rate law), no real consensus has been reached. There are disagreements between laboratory- and field-based studies and differences in rates for inorganic and biogenic materials. Rates based on measurements on suspended particles do not always agree with rates inferred from measurements made near the sediment-water interface of the actual ocean. By contrast, the freshwater dissolution rate of calcite has been well described by bulk rate measurements from a number of different laboratories, fit by basic kinetic theory, and well studied by atomic force microscopy and vertical scanning interferometry to document the processes at the atomic scale. In this review, we try to better unify our understanding of carbonate dissolution in the ocean via a relatively new, highly sensitive method we have developed combined with a theoretical framework guided by the success of the freshwater studies. We show that empirical curve fits of seawater data as a function of saturation state do not agree, largely because the curvature is itself a function of the thermodynamics. Instead, we show that models that consider both surface energetic theory and the complicated speciation of seawater and calcite surfaces in seawater are able to explain most of the most recent data.This new framework can also explain features of the historical data that have not been previously explained. The existence of a kink in the relationship between rate and saturation state, reflecting a change in dissolution mechanism, may be playing an important role in accelerating CaCO₃ dissolution in key sedimentary environments.

Locating gaps in the California Current System ocean acidification monitoring network

Ocean acidification is a global issue with particular regional significance in the California Current System, where social, economic, and ecological impacts are already occurring. Although ocean acidification is a concern that unifies the entire West Coast region, managing for this phenomenon at a regional scale is complex and further complicated by the large scale and dynamic nature of the region. Currently, data collection relevant to ocean acidification on the West Coast is piecemeal, and cannot capture the primary sources of variability in ocean acidification through time and across the region, hindering collaboration among regional managers. We developed a tool to analyze gaps in the West Coast ocean acidification monitoring network. We describe this tool and discuss how it can enable scientists and marine managers in the California Current System to fill information gaps and better understand and thus respond to ocean acidification through the implementation of management solutions at the local level.

Effects of ocean acidification on Antarctic marine organisms: A meta-analysis

Southern Ocean waters are among the most vulnerable to ocean acidification. The projected increase in the CO2 level will cause changes in carbonate chemistry that are likely to be damaging to organisms inhabiting these waters. A meta-analysis was undertaken to examine the vulnerability of Antarctic marine biota occupying waters south of 60°S to ocean acidification. This meta-analysis showed that ocean acidification negatively affects autotrophic organisms, mainly phytoplankton, at CO2 levels above 1,000 μatm and invertebrates above 1,500 μatm, but positively affects bacterial abundance. The sensitivity of phytoplankton to ocean acidification was influenced by the experimental procedure used. Natural, mixed communities were more sensitive than single species in culture and showed a decline in chlorophyll a concentration, productivity, and photosynthetic health, as well as a shift in community composition at CO2 levels above 1,000 μatm. Invertebrates showed reduced fertilization rates and increased occurrence of larval abnormalities, as well as decreased calcification rates and increased shell dissolution with any increase in CO2 level above 1,500 μatm. Assessment of the vulnerability of fish and macroalgae to ocean acidification was limited by the number of studies available. Overall, this analysis indicates that many marine organisms in the Southern Ocean are likely to be susceptible to ocean acidification and thereby likely to change their contribution to ecosystem services in the future. Further studies are required to address the poor spatial coverage, lack of community or ecosystem-level studies, and the largely unknown potential for organisms to acclimate and/or adapt to the changing conditions.

Ocean acidification and warming affect skeletal mineralization in a marine fish

Ocean acidification and warming are known to alter, and in many cases decrease, calcification rates of shell and reef building marine invertebrates. However, to date, there are no datasets on the combined effect of ocean pH and temperature on skeletal mineralization of marine vertebrates, such as fishes. Here, the embryos of an oviparous marine fish, the little skate ( Leucoraja erinacea), were developmentally acclimatized to current and increased temperature and CO₂ conditions as expected by the year 2100 (15 and 20°C, approx. 400 and 1100 µatm, respectively), in a fully crossed experimental design. Using micro-computed tomography, hydroxyapatite density was estimated in the mineralized portion of the cartilage in jaws, crura, vertebrae, denticles and pectoral fins of juvenile skates. Mineralization increased as a consequence of high CO₂ in the cartilage of crura and jaws, while temperature decreased mineralization in the pectoral fins. Mineralization affects stiffness and strength of skeletal elements linearly, with implications for feeding and locomotion performance and efficiency. This study is, to my knowledge, the first to quantify a significant change in mineralization in the skeleton of a fish and shows that changes in temperature and pH of the oceans have complex effects on fish skeletal morphology.

Thicker Shells Compensate Extensive Dissolution in Brachiopods under Future Ocean Acidification

Organisms with long generation times require phenotypic plasticity to survive in changing environments until genetic adaptation can be achieved. Marine calcifiers are particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification due to dissolution and a reduction in shell-building carbonate ions. Long-term experiments assess organisms' abilities to acclimatize or even adapt to environmental change. Here we present an unexpected compensatory response to extensive shell dissolution in a highly calcium-carbonate-dependent organism after long-term culture in predicted end-century acidification and warming conditions. Substantial shell dissolution with decreasing pH posed a threat to both a polar ( Liothyrella uva) and a temperate ( Calloria inconspicua) brachiopod after 7 months and 3 months exposure, respectively, with more extensive dissolution in the polar species. This impact was reflected in decreased outer primary layer thickness in the polar brachiopod. A compensatory response of increasing inner secondary layer thickness, and thereby producing a thicker shell, was exhibited by the polar species. Less extensive dissolution in the temperate brachiopod did not affect shell thickness. Increased temperature did not impact shell dissolution or thickness. Brachiopod ability to produce a thicker shell when extensive shell dissolution occurs suggests this marine calcifier has great plasticity in calcification providing insights into how similar species might cope under future environmental change.

Spectrophotometric calibration procedures to enable calibration-free measurements of seawater calcium carbonate saturation states

A simple protocol was developed to measure seawater calcium carbonate saturation states (Ω_spec) spectrophotometrically. Saturation states are typically derived from the separate measurement of two other carbon system parameters, with each requiring unique instrumentation and often complex measurement protocols. Using the new protocol, the only required equipment is a thermostatted laboratory spectrophotometer. For each seawater sample, spectrophotometric measurements of pH (visible absorbance) are made in paired optical cells, one with and one without added nitric acid. Ultraviolet absorbance is measured to determine the amount of added acid based on the direct proportionality between nitrate concentration and UV absorbance. Coupled measurements of pH and the alkalinity change that accompanies the nitric acid addition allow calculation of a seawater sample's original carbonate ion concentration and saturation state. These paired absorbance measurements yield Ω_spec (and other carbonate system parameters), with each sample requiring about 12 min processing time. Initially, an instrument-specific nitrate molar absorptivity coefficient must be determined (due to small but significant discrepancies in instrumental wavelength calibrations), but thereafter no further calibration is needed. In this work, the 1σ precision of replicate measurements of aragonite saturation state was found to be 0.020, and the average difference between Ω_spec and Ω calculated conventionally from measured total alkalinity and pH (Ω_calc) was -0.11% ± 0.96% (a level of accuracy comparable to that obtained from spectrophotometric measurements of carbonate ion concentration). Over the entire range of experimental conditions, 0.97 < Ω < 3.17 (n = 125), all measurements attained the Global Ocean Acidification Observing Network's "weather level" goal for accuracy and 90% attained the more stringent "climate level" goal. When Ω_spec was calculated from averages of duplicate samples (n = 56), the precision improved to 0.014 and the average difference between Ω_spec and Ω_calc improved to -0.11% ± 0.73%. Additionally, 97% of the duplicate-based Ω_spec measurements attained the "climate level" accuracy goal. These results indicate that the simple measurement protocol developed in this work should be widely applicable for monitoring fundamental seawater changes associated with ocean acidification.

Southern Ocean pteropods at risk from ocean warming and acidification

Early life stages of marine calcifiers are particularly vulnerable to climate change. In the Southern Ocean aragonite undersaturation events and areas of rapid warming already occur and are predicted to increase in extent. Here, we present the first study to successfully hatch the polar pteropod Limacina helicina antarctica and observe the potential impact of exposure to increased temperature and aragonite undersaturation resulting from ocean acidification (OA) on the early life stage survival and shell morphology. High larval mortality (up to 39%) was observed in individuals exposed to perturbed conditions. Warming and OA induced extensive shell malformation and dissolution, respectively, increasing shell fragility. Furthermore, shell growth decreased, with variation between treatments and exposure time. Our results demonstrate that short-term exposure through passing through hotspots of OA and warming poses a serious threat to pteropod recruitment and long-term population viability.

Transcriptomic response of the Antarctic pteropod Limacina helicina antarctica to ocean acidification

Background

Ocean acidification (OA), a change in ocean chemistry due to the absorption of atmospheric CO₂ into surface oceans, challenges biogenic calcification in many marine organisms. Ocean acidification is expected to rapidly progress in polar seas, with regions of the Southern Ocean expected to experience severe OA within decades. Biologically, the consequences of OA challenge calcification processes and impose an energetic cost.

Results

In order to better characterize the response of a polar calcifier to conditions of OA, we assessed differential gene expression in the Antarctic pteropod, Limacina helicina antarctica. Experimental levels of pCO₂ were chosen to create both contemporary pH conditions, and to mimic future pH expected in OA scenarios. Significant changes in the transcriptome were observed when juvenile L. h. antarctica were acclimated for 21 days to low-pH (7.71), mid-pH (7.9) or high-pH (8.13) conditions. Differential gene expression analysis of individuals maintained in the low-pH treatment identified down-regulation of genes involved in cytoskeletal structure, lipid transport, and metabolism. High pH exposure led to increased expression and enrichment for genes involved in shell formation, calcium ion binding, and DNA binding. Significant differential gene expression was observed in four major cellular and physiological processes: shell formation, the cellular stress response, metabolism, and neural function. Across these functional groups, exposure to conditions that mimic ocean acidification led to rapid suppression of gene expression.

Conclusions

Results of this study demonstrated that the transcriptome of the juvenile pteropod, L. h. antarctica, was dynamic and changed in response to different levels of pCO₂. In a global change context, exposure of L. h. antarctica to the low pH, high pCO₂ OA conditions resulted in a suppression of transcripts for genes involved in key physiological processes: calcification, metabolism, and the cellular stress response. The transcriptomic response at both acute and longer-term acclimation time frames indicated that contemporary L. h. antarctica may not have the physiological plasticity necessary for adaptation to OA conditions expected in future decades. Lastly, the differential gene expression results further support the role of shelled pteropods such as L. h. antarctica as sentinel organisms for the impacts of ocean acidification.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12864-017-4161-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Exposure history determines pteropod vulnerability to ocean acidification along the US West Coast

The pteropod Limacina helicina frequently experiences seasonal exposure to corrosive conditions (Ω_ar < 1) along the US West Coast and is recognized as one of the species most susceptible to ocean acidification (OA). Yet, little is known about their capacity to acclimatize to such conditions. We collected pteropods in the California Current Ecosystem (CCE) that differed in the severity of exposure to Ω_ar conditions in the natural environment. Combining field observations, high-CO₂ perturbation experiment results, and retrospective ocean transport simulations, we investigated biological responses based on histories of magnitude and duration of exposure to Ω_ar < 1. Our results suggest that both exposure magnitude and duration affect pteropod responses in the natural environment. However, observed declines in calcification performance and survival probability under high CO₂ experimental conditions do not show acclimatization capacity or physiological tolerance related to history of exposure to corrosive conditions. Pteropods from the coastal CCE appear to be at or near the limit of their physiological capacity, and consequently, are already at extinction risk under projected acceleration of OA over the next 30 years. Our results demonstrate that Ω_ar exposure history largely determines pteropod response to experimental conditions and is essential to the interpretation of biological observations and experimental results.

High resolution microscopy reveals significant impacts of ocean acidification and warming on larval shell development in Laternula elliptica

Environmental stressors impact marine larval growth rates, quality and sizes. Larvae of the Antarctic bivalve, Laternula elliptica, were raised to the D-larvae stage under temperature and pH conditions representing ambient and end of century projections (-1.6°C to +0.4°C and pH 7.98 to 7.65). Previous observations using light microscopy suggested pH had no influence on larval abnormalities in this species. Detailed analysis of the shell using SEM showed that reduced pH is in fact a major stressor during development for this species, producing D-larvae with abnormal shapes, deformed shell edges and irregular hinges, cracked shell surfaces and even uncalcified larvae. Additionally, reduced pH increased pitting and cracking on shell surfaces. Thus, apparently normal larvae may be compromised at the ultrastructural level and these larvae would be in poor condition at settlement, reducing juvenile recruitment and overall survival. Elevated temperatures increased prodissoconch II sizes. However, the overall impacts on larval shell quality and integrity with concurrent ocean acidification would likely overshadow any beneficial results from warmer temperatures, limiting populations of this prevalent Antarctic species.

Harmful algal blooms and climate change: Learning from the past and present to forecast the future

Climate change pressures will influence marine planktonic systems globally, and it is conceivable that harmful algal blooms may increase in frequency and severity. These pressures will be manifest as alterations in temperature, stratification, light, ocean acidification, precipitation-induced nutrient inputs, and grazing, but absence of fundamental knowledge of the mechanisms driving harmful algal blooms frustrates most hope of forecasting their future prevalence. Summarized here is the consensus of a recent workshop held to address what currently is known and not known about the environmental conditions that favor initiation and maintenance of harmful algal blooms. There is expectation that harmful algal bloom (HAB) geographical domains should expand in some cases, as will seasonal windows of opportunity for harmful algal blooms at higher latitudes. Nonetheless there is only basic information to speculate upon which regions or habitats HAB species may be the most resilient or susceptible. Moreover, current research strategies are not well suited to inform these fundamental linkages. There is a critical absence of tenable hypotheses for how climate pressures mechanistically affect HAB species, and the lack of uniform experimental protocols limits the quantitative cross-investigation comparisons essential to advancement. A HAB "best practices" manual would help foster more uniform research strategies and protocols, and selection of a small target list of model HAB species or isolates for study would greatly promote the accumulation of knowledge. Despite the need to focus on keystone species, more studies need to address strain variability within species, their responses under multifactorial conditions, and the retrospective analyses of long-term plankton and cyst core data; research topics that are departures from the norm. Examples of some fundamental unknowns include how larger and more frequent extreme weather events may break down natural biogeographic barriers, how stratification may enhance or diminish HAB events, how trace nutrients (metals, vitamins) influence cell toxicity, and how grazing pressures may leverage, or mitigate HAB development. There is an absence of high quality time-series data in most regions currently experiencing HAB outbreaks, and little if any data from regions expected to develop HAB events in the future. A subset of observer sites is recommended to help develop stronger linkages among global, national, and regional climate change and HAB observation programs, providing fundamental datasets for investigating global changes in the prevalence of harmful algal blooms. Forecasting changes in HAB patterns over the next few decades will depend critically upon considering harmful algal blooms within the competitive context of plankton communities, and linking these insights to ecosystem, oceanographic and climate models. From a broader perspective, the nexus of HAB science and the social sciences of harmful algal blooms is inadequate and prevents quantitative assessment of impacts of future HAB changes on human well-being. These and other fundamental changes in HAB research will be necessary if HAB science is to obtain compelling evidence that climate change has caused alterations in HAB distributions, prevalence or character, and to develop the theoretical, experimental, and empirical evidence explaining the mechanisms underpinning these ecological shifts.

OCEANOGRAPHY. Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO₂ emissions scenarios

The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord's goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.