Application of a Hybrid Forest Growth Model to Evaluate Climate Change Impacts on Productivity, Nutrient Cycling and Mortality in a Montane Forest Ecosystem

The role of biodiversity in mitigating the effects of nutrient limitation and short-term rotations in plantations of subtropical China

Species diversity plays an essential role in enhancing ecosystem functions (EF) in both natural and plantation forests. However, we do not fully understand whether species diversity could maintain the sustainability of EFs in multiple-rotation plantations. Here, we hypothesized that tree species mixtures could mitigate declines in EFs along successive rotations, but could not maintain ecosystem multifunctionality. To test our hypothesis, we examined the effects of species diversity on four EFs, i.e., aboveground biomass (AGB), soil available nitrogen (SAN) and phosphorus (SAP), and soil organic matter (SOM), based on pure model simulation in plantations of subtropical China. The model fusion framework was set up by the integration of the process-based FORECAST and Multivariate Diversity-Interactions models. In the simulation, four local typical plantation tree species (two conifers, one evergreen broadleaf, and one deciduous N-fixing broadleaf) were selected and combined to form four monoculture and 11 mixture stands, and for each stand, the simulation was made for four 25-year rotations. The results showed that all the four EFs declined with the progress of rotations in both monoculture and mixtures, and the declining range was larger in monoculture than in mixtures in each rotation. Particularly, SAP significantly decreased while AGB, SAN, and SOM increased with diversity evenness from 0 (monoculture) to 1 (four species being equal abundant in the mixture). Overall, SAP and AGB displayed higher sensitivity to the disturbance of successive rotations compared with SAN and SOM. These results suggest that mixing species could not maintain EFs along with successive rotations because it could not alleviate SAP deficiencies in the soils resulted from the disturbances of silvicultural measures.

Future climate impacts on forest growth and implications for carbon sequestration through reforestation in southeast Australia

Reforestation is identified as one of the key nature-based solutions to deliver carbon dioxide removal, which will be required to achieve the net zero ambition of the Paris Agreement. However, the potential for sequestration through reforestation is uncertain because climate change is expected to affect the drivers of forest growth. This study used the process-based 3-PG model to investigate the effects of climate change on development of above-ground biomass (AGB), as an indicator of forest growth, in regenerating native forests in southeast Australia. We investigated how changing climate affects AGB, by combining historical data and future climate projections based on 25 global climate models (GCMs) for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. We found that the ensemble means of 25 GCMs indicated an increase in temperature with large variations in projected rainfall. When these changes were applied in 3-PG, we found an increase in the simulated AGB by as much as 25% under a moderate emission scenario. This estimate rose to 51% under a high emission scenario by the end of the 21st century across nine selected sites in southeast Australia. However, when CO₂ response was excluded, we found a large decrease in AGB at the nine sites. Our modelling results showed that the modelled response to elevated atmospheric CO₂ (the CO₂ fertilization effect) was largely responsible for the simulated increase of AGB (%). We found that the estimates of future changes in the AGB were subject to uncertainties originating from climate projections, future emission scenarios, and the assumed response to CO₂ fertilization. Such modelling simulation improves understanding of possible climate change impacts on forest growth and the inherent uncertainties in estimating mitigation potential through reforestation, with implications for climate policy in Australia.