Assessing the Effectiveness of Local Management of Coral Reefs Using Expert Opinion and Spatial Bayesian Modeling

The mismeasure of conservation

One of the basic purposes of protected areas and other effective area-based conservation interventions is to achieve conservation impact, the sum of avoided biodiversity loss and promoted recovery relative to outcomes without protection. In the context of the Convention on Biological Diversity's negotiations on the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework, we find that targets for area-based interventions are framed overwhelmingly with measures that fail to inform decision-makers about impact and that risk diverting limited resources away from achieving it. We show that predicting impact in space and time is feasible and can provide the basis for global guidance for jurisdictions to develop targets for conservation impact and shift investment priorities to areas where impact can be most effectively achieved.

Bayesian Networks in Environmental Risk Assessment: A Review

Human activities both depend upon and have consequences on the environment. Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is a process of estimating the probability and consequences of the adverse effects of human activities and other stressors on the environment. Bayesian networks (BNs) can synthesize different types of knowledge and explicitly account for the probabilities of different scenarios, therefore offering a useful tool for ERA. Their use in formal ERA practice has not been evaluated, however, despite their increasing popularity in environmental modeling. This paper reviews the use of BNs in ERA based on peer-reviewed publications. Following a systematic mapping protocol, we identified studies in which BNs have been used in an environmental risk context and evaluated the scope, technical aspects, and use of the models and their results. The review shows that BNs have been applied in ERA, particularly in recent years, and that there is room to develop both the model implementation and participatory modeling practices. Based on this review and the authors' experience, we outline general guidelines and development ideas for using BNs in ERA. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:62-78. © 2020 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Governing offshore fish aggregating devices in the Eastern Caribbean: Exploring trade-offs using a qualitative network model

The use of moored Fish Aggregating Devices (FADs) in small-scale fisheries is a potential solution to food security concerns, economic development needs, and the overexploitation of nearshore coastal fisheries in the Eastern Caribbean. However, moored FADs also generate novel and largely unstudied governance challenges involving (1) the provisioning of FADs, (2) fisheries resource appropriation, (3) human wellbeing, and (4) food web impacts. We examine the relative performance of three governance scenarios to address these challenges: private-individual, community-based, and top-down governance. We construct a qualitative network model (QNM) of the fishery based on semi-structured interviews (n = 60) with fishers and fisheries managers, established food web and economic models, and expert knowledge. We simulate the social-ecological impacts of the three governance scenarios. The models suggest that community-based and top-down governance scenarios result in low levels of conflict, but provide limited incentives to develop and maintain moored FADs. The private-individual governance scenario tends to increase conflict and incentives for monitoring FADs, but has no impact on incentives for maintaining and deploying FADs.

Towards modelling the future risk of cyclone wave damage to the world's coral reefs

Tropical cyclones generate extreme waves that can damage coral reef communities. Recovery typically requires up to a decade, driving the trajectory of coral community structure. Coral reefs have evolved over millennia with cyclones. Increasingly, however, processes of recovery are interrupted and compromised by additional pressures (thermal stress, pollution, diseases, predators). Understanding how cyclones interact with other pressures to threaten coral reefs underpins spatial prioritization of conservation and management interventions. Models that simulate coral responses to cumulative pressures often assume that the worst cyclone wave damage occurs within ~100 km of the track. However, we show major coral loss at exposed sites up to 800 km from a cyclone that was both strong (high sustained wind speeds >=33 m/s) and big (widespread circulation >~300 km), using numerical wave models and field data from northwest Australia. We then calculate the return time of big and strong cyclones, big cyclones of any strength and strong cyclones of any size, for each of 150 coral reef ecoregions using a global data set of past cyclones from 1985 to 2015. For the coral ecoregions that regularly were exposed to cyclones during that time, we find that 75% of them were exposed to at least one cyclone that was both big and strong. Return intervals of big and strong cyclones are already less than 5 years for 13 ecoregions, primarily in the cyclone-prone NW Pacific, and less than 10 years for an additional 14 ecoregions. We identify ecoregions likely at higher risk in future given projected changes in cyclone activity. Robust quantification of the spatial distribution of likely cyclone wave damage is vital not only for understanding past coral response to pressures, but also for predicting how this may change as the climate continues to warm and the relative frequency of the strongest cyclones rises.

How to choose the best category for a protected area? A multicriteria analysis method based on ecosystem services conservation

This study proposes a novel methodology to define protected area (PA) categories based on the analysis of how much a PA can protect important ecosystem services (ESs). PA are important tools to minimize the continuing global biodiversity conservation crisis. However, the contribution of PA to conservation is variable, mainly due to the diverse management categories with which they can be associated. In order to support the assignment of a PA to a management category, a multicriteria analysis (MCA) strategy was developed. Essentially, it consisted of the application of an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and its association to management categories that could support the conservation of the most significant ESs. To test the methodology, the framework was applied to the Carijós Ecological Station (ESEC Carijós), Santa Catarina, Brazil, and its surrounding area of influence. Using the IUCN list of categories for the case study, it was found that IUCN Ia and IV could be the most efficient measures to protect important ESs at ESEC Carijós. Although the methodology was applied to a particular case, it could be employed worldwide, establishing the best category to be assigned to an existing or proposed potential PA.

Mapping long-term coral reef ecosystems regime shifts: A small island developing state case study

Coral reefs are among the most fragile ecosystems that provide essential services to local Small Island Developing States (SIDS) communities. As such, exploring the characteristics and interactions shaping regime shifts of coral reefs is of paramount importance in managing system pressures; enhancing resilience; aiding their regeneration and recovery process; and restoring habitat complexity. However, understanding the dynamics of coral reef ecosystems regime shift requires employing an approach capable of dealing with systems being affected by multiple climatic and socio-economic non-climatic pressures as well as an effective treatment of systemic embedded uncertainties. This study applies Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) in a participatory stepwise and systematic procedure to reflect dynamic casualties and temporal changes of coral reef ecosystem regime change over a long-time perspective. This mapping technique allows conceptualising dynamic models to represent causalities and modelling input values to simulate fluctuations within a complex temporal system. Port Resolution on Tanna Island in Vanuatu was selected as the case study region representative of Pacific-SIDS geography and human communities. As an initial outcome and an indicator of multidisciplinary of this study, twenty-seven principal influential factors and their corresponding causal relationships were identified. Subsequently, the coral reef regime shift was analysed under four main plausible scenarios representing major climatic and non-climatic trajectories. The results indicate that climate change factors play pivotal roles in the regime shift of the coral reef ecosystem globally. At the focal scale of this study, the tourism industry and coral fisheries are the most vulnerable services provided by coral reefs. As such, coupled local management interventions and global efforts in mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change is likely to yield better coral reef ecosystem services at a local community level.

A modelling approach for offshore wind farm feasibility with respect to ecosystem-based marine spatial planning

Demand for renewable energy is increasing steadily and regulated by national and international policies. Offshore wind energy sector has been clearly the fastest in its development among other options, and development of new wind farms requires large ocean space. Therefore, there is a need of efficient spatial planning process, including the site selection constrained by technical (wind resource, coastal distance, seafloor) and environmental (impacts) factors and competence of uses. We present a novel approach, using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN), for an integrated spatially explicit site feasibility identification for offshore wind farms. Our objectives are to: (i) develop a spatially explicit model that integrates the technical, economic, environmental and social dimensions; (ii) operationalize the BBN model; (iii) implement the model at local (Basque Country) and regional (North East Atlantic and Western Mediterranean), and (iv) develop and analyse future scenarios for wind farm installation in a local case study. Results demonstrated a total of 1% (23 km²) of moderate feasibility areas in local scaled analysis, compared to 4% of (21,600 km²) very high, and 5% (30,000 km²) of high feasibility in larger scale analysis. The main challenges were data availability and discretization when trying to expand the model from local to regional level. The use of BBN models to determine the feasibility of offshore wind farm areas has been demonstrated adequate and possible, both at local and regional scales, allowing managers to take management decisions regarding marine spatial planning when including different activities, environmental problems and technological constraints.

Promoting ancillary conservation through marine spatial planning

The term Other Effective Conservation Measures (OECMs) refers to areas which are not protected areas and yet significantly contribute to conservation; they were recently defined by the Convention on Biological Diversity. Efforts to address the designation of OECMs include further definition of the term and the development of typologies of OECMs and of screening tools which can be applied to identify potential OECMs. While the designation process of OECMs is still unclear, especially in the marine environment, we suggest a decision process which can be used by planners to identify and designate specific types of OECMs as part of the marine spatial planning (MSP) process. These OECMs are areas where marine communities benefit from access restrictions established due to safety or security concerns. We applied the suggested process on two case studies of the Italian Northern Adriatic and the Israeli Mediterranean seas. When consideration of OECMs comes at the expense of designating marine protected areas, OECMs can become controversial. However, OECM designation can promote achievement of marine conservation goals and of ecosystem-based management of uses. Therefore, we suggest that while spatial targets for conservation should focus mainly on areas dedicated for marine reserves, OECMs, especially of the type for ancillary conservation discussed in this paper, can be achieved through MSP. Using MSP for the designation of recognized OECMs may significantly promote marine conservation goals in unexpected ways and may ¬help realize ecosystem-based management.

Seagrass ecosystem services - What's next?

Seagrasses, marine flowering plants, provide a wide range of ecosystem services, defined here as natural processes and components that directly or indirectly benefit human needs. Recent research has shown that there are still many gaps in our comprehension of seagrass ecosystem service provision. Furthermore, there seems to be little public knowledge of seagrasses in general and the benefits they provide. This begs the questions: how do we move forward with the information we have? What other information do we need and what actions do we need to take in order to improve the situation and appreciation for seagrass? Based on the outcomes from an international expert knowledge eliciting workshop, three key areas to advance seagrass ecosystem service research were identified: 1) Variability of ecosystem services within seagrass meadows and among different meadows; 2) Seagrass ecosystem services in relation to, and their connection with, other coastal habitats; and 3) Improvement in the communication of seagrass ecosystem services to the public. Here we present ways forward to advance seagrass ecosystem service research in order to raise the profile of seagrass globally, as a means to establish more effective conservation and restoration of these important coastal habitats around the world.

Seagrass Ecosystem Services and Their Variability across Genera and Geographical Regions

Threats to and loss of seagrass ecosystems globally, impact not only natural resources but also the lives of people who directly or indirectly depend on these systems. Seagrass ecosystems play a multi-functional role in human well-being, e.g. food through fisheries, control of erosion and protection against floods. Quantifying these services reveals their contributions to human well-being and helps justify seagrass conservation. There has been no comprehensive assessment as to whether seagrass ecosystem services are perceived to vary over the globe or amongst genera. Our study compiles the most complete list of ecosystem services provided by seagrasses so far, including bioregional- and genus-specific information from expert opinion and published studies. Several seagrass ecosystem services vary considerably in their (known) provision across genera and over the globe. Seagrasses genera are clearly not all equal with regard to the ecosystem services they provide. As seagrass genera are not evenly distributed over all bioregions, the presence of an ecosystem service sometimes depends on the genera present. Larger sized seagrass genera (e.g. Posidonia, Enhalus) are perceived to provide more substantial and a wider variety of ecosystem services than smaller species (e.g. Halophila, Lepilaena). Nevertheless, smaller species provide important services. Our findings point out data gaps, provide new insight for more efficient management and recommend caution in economic valuation of seagrass services worldwide.

A robust operational model for predicting where tropical cyclone waves damage coral reefs

Tropical cyclone (TC) waves can severely damage coral reefs. Models that predict where to find such damage (the ‘damage zone’) enable reef managers to: 1) target management responses after major TCs in near-real time to promote recovery at severely damaged sites; and 2) identify spatial patterns in historic TC exposure to explain habitat condition trajectories. For damage models to meet these needs, they must be valid for TCs of varying intensity, circulation size and duration. Here, we map damage zones for 46 TCs that crossed Australia’s Great Barrier Reef from 1985–2015 using three models – including one we develop which extends the capability of the others. We ground truth model performance with field data of wave damage from seven TCs of varying characteristics. The model we develop (4MW) out-performed the other models at capturing all incidences of known damage. The next best performing model (AHF) both under-predicted and over-predicted damage for TCs of various types. 4MW and AHF produce strikingly different spatial and temporal patterns of damage potential when used to reconstruct past TCs from 1985–2015. The 4MW model greatly enhances both of the main capabilities TC damage models provide to managers, and is useful wherever TCs and coral reefs co-occur.

The Challenge of Planning Conservation Strategies in Threatened Seascapes: Understanding the Role of Fine Scale Assessments of Community Response to Cumulative Human Pressures

Assessing the distribution and intensity of human threats to biodiversity is a prerequisite for effective spatial planning, harmonizing conservation purposes with sustainable development. In the Mediterranean Sea, the management of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) is rarely based on explicit consideration of the distribution of multiple stressors, with direct assessment of their effects on ecosystems. This gap limits the effectiveness of protection and is conducive to conflicts among stakeholders. Here, a fine scale assessment of the potential effects of different combinations of stressors (both land- and marine-based) on vulnerable rocky habitats (i.e. lower midlittoral and shallow infralittoral) along 40 km of coast in the western Mediterranean (Ionian Sea) has been carried out. The study area is a paradigmatic example of socio-ecological interactions, where several human uses and conservation measures collide. Significant differences in the structure of assemblages according to different combinations of threats were observed, indicating distinct responses of marine habitats to different sets of human pressures. A more complex three-dimensional structure, higher taxon richness and β-diversity characterized assemblages subject to low versus high levels of human pressure, consistently across habitats. In addition, the main drivers of change were: closeness to the harbour, water quality, and the relative extension of beaches. Our findings suggest that, although efforts to assess cumulative impacts at large scale may help in individuating priority areas for conservation purposes, the fact that such evaluations are often based on expert opinions and not on actual studies limits their ability to represent real environmental conditions at local scale. Systematic evaluations of local scale effects of anthropogenic drivers of change on biological communities should complement broad scale management strategies to achieve effective sustainability of human exploitation of marine resources.