The Biosurveillance Analytics Resource Directory (BARD): Facilitating the Use of Epidemiological Models for Infectious Disease Surveillance

A simple model of coupled individual behavior and its impact on epidemic dynamics

Containing infectious disease outbreaks is a complex challenge that usually requires the deployment of multiple intervention strategies. While mathematical modeling of infectious diseases is a widely accepted tool to evaluate intervention strategies, most models and studies overlook the interdependence between individuals' reactions to simultaneously implemented interventions. Intervention modeling efforts typically assume that individual adherence decisions are independent of each other. However, in the real world, individuals who are willing to comply with certain interventions may be more or less likely to comply with another intervention. The combined effect of interventions may depend on the correlation between adherence decisions. In this study, we consider vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions, and study how the correlation between individuals' behaviors towards these two interventions strategies affects the epidemiological outcomes. Furthermore, we integrate disease surveillance in our model to study the effects of interventions triggered by surveillance events. This allows us to model a realistic operational context where surveillance informs the timing of interventions deployment, thereby influencing disease dynamics. Our results demonstrate the diverse effects of coupled individual behavior and highlight the importance of robust surveillance systems. Our study yields the following insights: (i) there exists a correlation level that minimizes the initial prevalence peak size; (ii) the optimal correlation level depends on the disease's basic reproduction number; (iii) disease surveillance modulates the impact of interventions on reducing the epidemic burden.

The impact of risk compensation adaptive behavior on the final epidemic size

Public health interventions reduce infection risk, while imposing significant costs on both individuals and the society. Interventions can also lead to behavioral changes, as individuals weigh the cost and benefits of avoiding infection. Aggregate epidemiological models typically focus on the population-level consequences of interventions, often not incorporating the mechanisms driving behavioral adaptations associated with interventions compliance. In this study, we use a behavior-epidemic model to analyze the consequences of detrimental behavioral responses driven by risk compensation. We analyze scenarios with varying levels of vaccine-acquired immunity and study the trade-off between risk compensation behaviors and reduced susceptibility. Our results reveal a trade-off between imperfect vaccine-acquired immunity and the potential risk compensation behavior of vaccinated individuals. We find that the impact of vaccination is ultimately influenced by the risk compensation behaviors of vaccinated individuals, which can either increase or decrease the size of the epidemic depending on the vaccine effectiveness. Moreover, we show that the behavioral response of the susceptible population modulates the impact of compensation behaviors by vaccinated individuals. Our results highlight that the distribution of highly protective vaccines can mitigate the observed effect. Additionally, they emphasize the importance of concurrently implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions in scenarios wherein vaccines have low efficacy. We extend our model by incorporating a model of disease surveillance, which drives a realistic operational course of action based on testing, analysis and response. Our results highlight the importance of robust surveillance systems in providing early warnings of disease outbreaks, which trigger early behavioral responses and timely interventions.

Adaptive human behaviour modulates the impact of immune life history and vaccination on long-term epidemic dynamics

The multiple immunity responses exhibited in the population and co-circulating variants documented during pandemics show a high potential to generate diverse long-term epidemiological scenarios. Transmission variability, immune uncertainties and human behaviour are crucial features for the predictability and implementation of effective mitigation strategies. Nonetheless, the effects of individual health incentives on disease dynamics are not well understood. We use a behavioural-immuno-epidemiological model to study the joint evolution of human behaviour and epidemic dynamics for different immunity scenarios. Our results reveal a trade-off between the individuals' immunity levels and the behavioural responses produced. We find that adaptive human behaviour can avoid dynamical resonance by avoiding large outbreaks, producing subsequent uniform outbreaks. Our forward-looking behaviour model shows an optimal planning horizon that minimizes the epidemic burden by balancing the individual risk-benefit trade-off. We find that adaptive human behaviour can compensate for differential immunity levels, equalizing the epidemic dynamics for scenarios with diverse underlying immunity landscapes. Our model can adequately capture complex empirical behavioural dynamics observed during pandemics. We tested our model for different US states during the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, we explored extensions of our modelling framework that incorporate the effects of lockdowns, the emergence of a novel variant, prosocial attitudes and pandemic fatigue.

Human factors methods in the design of digital decision support systems for population health: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

While Human Factors (HF) methods have been applied to the design of decision support systems (DSS) to aid clinical decision-making, the role of HF to improve decision-support for population health outcomes is less understood. We sought to comprehensively understand how HF methods have been used in designing digital population health DSS.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We searched English documents published in health sciences and engineering databases (Medline, Embase, PsychINFO, Scopus, Comendex, Inspec, IEEE Xplore) between January 1990 and September 2023 describing the development, validation or application of HF principles to decision support tools in population health.

RESULTS

We identified 21,581 unique records and included 153 studies for data extraction and synthesis. We included research articles that had a target end-user in population health and that used HF. HF methods were applied throughout the design lifecycle. Users were engaged early in the design lifecycle in the needs assessment and requirements gathering phase and design and prototyping phase with qualitative methods such as interviews. In later stages in the lifecycle, during user testing and evaluation, and post deployment evaluation, quantitative methods were more frequently used. However, only three studies used an experimental framework or conducted A/B testing.

CONCLUSIONS

While HF have been applied in a variety of contexts in the design of data-driven DSSs for population health, few have used Human Factors to its full potential. We offer recommendations for how HF can be leveraged throughout the design lifecycle. Most crucially, system designers should engage with users early on and throughout the design process. Our findings can support stakeholders to further empower public health systems.

Coupled models of genomic surveillance and evolving pandemics with applications for timely public health interventions

Disease surveillance systems provide early warnings of disease outbreaks before they become public health emergencies. However, pandemics containment would be challenging due to the complex immunity landscape created by multiple variants. Genomic surveillance is critical for detecting novel variants with diverse characteristics and importation/emergence times. Yet, a systematic study incorporating genomic monitoring, situation assessment, and intervention strategies is lacking in the literature. We formulate an integrated computational modeling framework to study a realistic course of action based on sequencing, analysis, and response. We study the effects of the second variant's importation time, its infectiousness advantage and, its cross-infection on the novel variant's detection time, and the resulting intervention scenarios to contain epidemics driven by two-variants dynamics. Our results illustrate the limitation in the intervention's effectiveness due to the variants' competing dynamics and provide the following insights: i) There is a set of importation times that yields the worst detection time for the second variant, which depends on the first variant's basic reproductive number; ii) When the second variant is imported relatively early with respect to the first variant, the cross-infection level does not impact the detection time of the second variant. We found that depending on the target metric, the best outcomes are attained under different interventions' regimes. Our results emphasize the importance of sustained enforcement of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on preventing epidemic resurgence due to importation/emergence of novel variants. We also discuss how our methods can be used to study when a novel variant emerges within a population.

Assessing 3 Outbreak Detection Algorithms in an Electronic Syndromic Surveillance System in a Resource-Limited Setting

We evaluated the performance of X-bar chart, exponentially weighted moving average, and C3 cumulative sums aberration detection algorithms for acute diarrheal disease syndromic surveillance at naval sites in Peru during 2007–2011. The 3 algorithms’ detection sensitivity was 100%, specificity was 97%–99%, and positive predictive value was 27%–46%.

Analytics for Investigation of Disease Outbreaks: Web-Based Analytics Facilitating Situational Awareness in Unfolding Disease Outbreaks

Background

Information from historical infectious disease outbreaks provides real-world data about outbreaks and their impacts on affected populations. These data can be used to develop a picture of an unfolding outbreak in its early stages, when incoming information is sparse and isolated, to identify effective control measures and guide their implementation.

Objective

This study aimed to develop a publicly accessible Web-based visual analytic called Analytics for the Investigation of Disease Outbreaks (AIDO) that uses historical disease outbreak information for decision support and situational awareness of an unfolding outbreak.

Methods

We developed an algorithm to allow the matching of unfolding outbreak data to a representative library of historical outbreaks. This process provides epidemiological clues that facilitate a user’s understanding of an unfolding outbreak and facilitates informed decisions about mitigation actions. Disease-specific properties to build a complete picture of the unfolding event were identified through a data-driven approach. A method of analogs approach was used to develop a short-term forecasting feature in the analytic. The 4 major steps involved in developing this tool were (1) collection of historic outbreak data and preparation of the representative library, (2) development of AIDO algorithms, (3) development of user interface and associated visuals, and (4) verification and validation.

Results

The tool currently includes representative historical outbreaks for 39 infectious diseases with over 600 diverse outbreaks. We identified 27 different properties categorized into 3 broad domains (population, location, and disease) that were used to evaluate outbreaks across all diseases for their effect on case count and duration of an outbreak. Statistical analyses revealed disease-specific properties from this set that were included in the disease-specific similarity algorithm. Although there were some similarities across diseases, we found that statistically important properties tend to vary, even between similar diseases. This may be because of our emphasis on including diverse representative outbreak presentations in our libraries. AIDO algorithm evaluations (similarity algorithm and short-term forecasting) were conducted using 4 case studies and we have shown details for the Q fever outbreak in Bilbao, Spain (2014), using data from the early stages of the outbreak. Using data from only the initial 2 weeks, AIDO identified historical outbreaks that were very similar in terms of their epidemiological picture (case count, duration, source of exposure, and urban setting). The short-term forecasting algorithm accurately predicted case count and duration for the unfolding outbreak.

Conclusions

AIDO is a decision support tool that facilitates increased situational awareness during an unfolding outbreak and enables informed decisions on mitigation strategies. AIDO analytics are available to epidemiologists across the globe with access to internet, at no cost. In this study, we presented a new approach to applying historical outbreak data to provide actionable information during the early stages of an unfolding infectious disease outbreak.

An extensible framework and database of infectious disease for biosurveillance

Biosurveillance, a relatively young field, has recently increased in importance because of increasing emphasis on global health. Databases and tools describing particular subsets of disease are becoming increasingly common in the field. Here, we present an infectious disease database that includes diseases of biosurveillance relevance and an extensible framework for the easy expansion of the database.

An approach to and web-based tool for infectious disease outbreak intervention analysis

Infectious diseases are a leading cause of death globally. Decisions surrounding how to control an infectious disease outbreak currently rely on a subjective process involving surveillance and expert opinion. However, there are many situations where neither may be available. Modeling can fill gaps in the decision making process by using available data to provide quantitative estimates of outbreak trajectories. Effective reduction of the spread of infectious diseases can be achieved through collaboration between the modeling community and public health policy community. However, such collaboration is rare, resulting in a lack of models that meet the needs of the public health community. Here we show a Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model modified to include control measures that allows parameter ranges, rather than parameter point estimates, and includes a web user interface for broad adoption. We apply the model to three diseases, measles, norovirus and influenza, to show the feasibility of its use and describe a research agenda to further promote interactions between decision makers and the modeling community.