Estimating and Analyzing Savannah Phenology with a Lagged Time Series Model

Current and lagged climate affects phenology across diverse taxonomic groups

The timing of life events (phenology) can be influenced by climate. Studies from around the world tell us that climate cues and species' responses can vary greatly. If variation in climate effects on phenology is strong within a single ecosystem, climate change could lead to ecological disruption, but detailed data from diverse taxa within a single ecosystem are rare. We collated first sighting and median activity within a high-elevation environment for plants, insects, birds, mammals and an amphibian across 45 years (1975-2020). We related 10 812 phenological events to climate data to determine the relative importance of climate effects on species' phenologies. We demonstrate significant variation in climate-phenology linkage across taxa in a single ecosystem. Both current and prior climate predicted changes in phenology. Taxa responded to some cues similarly, such as snowmelt date and spring temperatures; other cues affected phenology differently. For example, prior summer precipitation had no effect on most plants, delayed first activity of some insects, but advanced activity of the amphibian, some mammals, and birds. Comparing phenological responses of taxa at a single location, we find that important cues often differ among taxa, suggesting that changes to climate may disrupt synchrony of timing among taxa.

Savannah Phenological Dynamics Reveal Spatio-Temporal Landscape Heterogeneity in Karamoja Sub-region, Uganda

Phenological properties are critical in understanding global environmental change patterns. This study analyzed phenological dynamics in a savannah dominated semi-arid environment of Uganda. We used moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer normalized difference vegetation index (MODIS NDVI) imagery. TIMESAT program was used to analyse the imagery to determine key phenological metrics; onset of greenness (OGT), onset of greenness value, end of greenness time (EGT), end of greenness value, maximum NDVI, time of maximum NDVI, duration of greenup (DOG) and range of normalized difference vegetation index (RNDVI). Results showed that thicket and shrubs had the earliest OGT on day 85 ± 14, EGT on day 244 ± 32 and a DOG of 158 ± 25 days. Woodland had the highest NDVI value for maximum NDVI, OGT, EGT, and RNDVI. In the bushland, OGT occurs on average around day 90 ± 11, EGT on day 255 ± 33 with a DOG of 163 ± 36 days. The grassland showed that OGT occurs on day 96 ± 13, EGT on day 252 ± 36 with a total DOG of 156 ± 33 days. Early photosynthesis activity was observed in central to eastern Karamoja in the districts of Moroto and Kotido. There was a positive relationship between rainfall and NDVI across all vegetation cover types as well as between phenological parameters and season dynamics. Vegetation senescence in the sub-region occurs around August to mid-September (day 244–253). The varied phenophases observed in the sub-region reveal an inherent landscape heterogeneity that is beneficial to extensive pastoral livestock production. Continuous monitoring of savannah phenological patterns in the sub-region is required to decipher landscape ecosystem processes and functioning.

Detecting Vegetation Recovery after Fire in A Fire-Frequented Habitat Using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)

Research Highlights: Fire-frequented savannas are dominated by plant species that regrow quickly following fires that mainly burn through the understory. To detect post-fire vegetation recovery in these ecosystems, particularly during warm, rainy seasons, data are needed on a small, temporal scale. In the past, the measurement of vegetation regrowth in fire-frequented systems has been labor-intensive, but with the availability of daily satellite imagery, it should be possible to easily determine vegetation recovery on a small timescale using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in ecosystems with a sparse overstory. Background and Objectives: We explore whether it is possible to use NDVI calculated from satellite imagery to detect time-to-vegetation recovery. Additionally, we determine the time-to-vegetation recovery after fires in different seasons. This represents one of very few studies that have used satellite imagery to examine vegetation recovery after fire in southeastern U.S.A. pine savannas. We test the efficacy of using this method by examining whether there are detectable differences between time-to-vegetation recovery in subtropical savannas burned during different seasons. Materials and Methods: NDVI was calculated from satellite imagery approximately monthly over two years in a subtropical savanna with units burned during dry, dormant and wet, growing seasons. Results: Despite the availability of daily satellite images, we were unable to precisely determine when vegetation recovered, because clouds frequently obscured our range of interest. We found that, in general, vegetation recovered in less time after fire during the wet, growing, as compared to dry, dormant, season, albeit there were some discrepancies in our results. Although these general patterns were clear, variation in fire heterogeneity and canopy type and cover skewed NDVI in some units. Conclusions: Although there are some challenges to using satellite-derived NDVI, the availability of satellite imagery continues to improve on both temporal and spatial scales, which should allow us to continue finding new and efficient ways to monitor and model forests in the future.

Remotely sensed soil moisture to estimate savannah NDVI

Satellite derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is a common data source for monitoring regional and global ecosystem properties. In dry lands it has contributed to estimation of inter-annual and seasonal vegetation dynamics and phenology. However, due to the spectral properties of NDVI it can be affected by clouds which can introduce missing data in the time series. Remotely sensed soil moisture has in contrast to NDVI the benefit of being unaffected by clouds due to the measurements being made in the microwave domain. There is therefore a potential in combining the remotely sensed NDVI with remotely sensed soil moisture to enhance the quality and estimate the missing data. We present a step towards the usage of remotely sensed soil moisture for estimation of savannah NDVI. This was done by evaluating the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) soil moisture and three of its individual products with respect to their relative performance. The individual products are from the advance scatterometer (ASCAT), Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and the Land Parameter Retrieval Model-Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (LPRM-AMSR-E). Each dataset was used to simulate NDVI, which was subsequently compared to remotely sensed NDVI from MODIS. Differences in their ability to estimate NDVI indicated that, on average, CCI soil moisture differs from its individual products by showing a higher average correlation with measured NDVI. Overall NDVI modelled from CCI soil moisture gave an average correlation of 0.81 to remotely sensed NDVI which indicates its potential to be used to estimate seasonal variations in savannah NDVI. Our result shows promise for further development in using CCI soil moisture to estimate NDVI. The modelled NDVI can potentially be used together with other remotely sensed vegetation datasets to enhance the phenological information that can be acquired, thereby, improving the estimates of savannah vegetation phenology.