Using drug exposure for predicting drug resistance - A data-driven genotypic interpretation tool

HIV multidrug class resistance prediction with a time sliding anchor approach

Motivation

The emergence of multidrug class resistance (MDR) in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) is a rare but significant challenge in antiretroviral therapy (ART). MDR, which may arise from prolonged drug exposure, treatment failures, or transmission of resistant strains, accelerates disease progression and poses particular challenges in resource-limited settings with restricted access to resistance testing and advanced therapies. Early prediction of future MDR development is important to inform therapeutic decisions and mitigate its occurrence.

Results

In this study, we employ various machine learning classifiers to predict future resistance to all four major antiretroviral drug classes using features extracted from clinical HIV sequence data. We systematically explore several variations of the problem that differ in the pre-existing resistance level and the temporal gap between sample collection and observed MDR occurrence. Our models show the ability to predict multidrug class resistance even in the most challenging variations, albeit at a reduced accuracy. Feature importance analysis reveals that our models primarily utilize known drug resistance mutations for easier classification tasks, but rely on new mutations for the difficult task of distinguishing four class drug resistance from three class drug resistance.

Availability and implementation

All analysis was performed using the Euresist Integrated DataBase (EIDB). Researchers wishing to reproduce, validate or extend these findings can request access to the latest EIDB release via the Euresist Network.

A graph neural network-based model with out-of-distribution robustness for enhancing antiretroviral therapy outcome prediction for HIV-1

Predicting the outcome of antiretroviral therapies (ART) for HIV-1 is a pressing clinical challenge, especially when the ART includes drugs with limited effectiveness data. This scarcity of data can arise either due to the introduction of a new drug to the market or due to limited use in clinical settings, resulting in clinical dataset with highly unbalanced therapy representation. To tackle this issue, we introduce a novel joint fusion model, which combines features from a Fully Connected (FC) Neural Network and a Graph Neural Network (GNN) in a multi-modality fashion. Our model uses both tabular data about genetic sequences and a knowledge base derived from Stanford drug-resistance mutation tables, which serve as benchmark references for deducing in-vivo treatment efficacy based on the viral genetic sequence. By leveraging this knowledge base structured as a graph, the GNN component enables our model to adapt to imbalanced data distributions and account for Out-of-Distribution (OoD) drugs. We evaluated these models' robustness against OoD drugs in the test set. Our comprehensive analysis demonstrates that the proposed model consistently outperforms the FC model. These results underscore the advantage of integrating Stanford scores in the model, thereby enhancing its generalizability and robustness, but also extending its utility in contributing in more informed clinical decisions with limited data availability. The source code is available at https://github.com/federicosiciliano/graph-ood-hiv.

Developing a Prototype Machine Learning Model to Predict Quality of Life Measures in People Living With HIV

Background

In the realm of Evidence-Based Medicine, introduced by Gordon Guyatt in the early 1990s, the integration of machine learning technologies marks a significant advancement towards more objective, evidence-driven healthcare. Evidence-Based Medicine principles focus on using the best available scientific evidence for clinical decision-making, enhancing healthcare quality and consistency by integrating this evidence with clinician expertise and patient values. Patient-Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs) and Patient-Reported Experience Measures (PREMs) have become essential in evaluating the broader impacts of treatments, especially for chronic conditions like HIV, reflecting patient health and well-being comprehensively.

Purpose

The study aims to leverage Machine Learning (ML) technologies to predict health outcomes from PROMs/PREMs data, focusing on people living with HIV.

Patients and Methods

Our research utilizes a ML Random Forest Regression to analyze PROMs/PREMs data collected from over 1200 people living with HIV through the NAVETA telemedicine system.

Results

The findings demonstrate the potential of ML algorithms to provide precise and consistent predictions of health outcomes, indicating high reliability and effectiveness in clinical settings. Notably, our ALGOPROMIA ML model achieved the highest predictive accuracy for questionnaires such as MOS30 VIH (Adj. R² = 0.984), ESTAR (Adj. R² = 0.963), and BERGER (Adj. R² = 0.936). Moderate performance was observed for the P3CEQ (Adj. R² = 0.753) and TSQM (Adj. R² = 0.698), reflecting variability in model accuracy across instruments. Additionally, the model demonstrated strong reliability in maintaining standardized prediction errors below 0.2 for most instruments, with probabilities of achieving this threshold being 96.43% for WHOQoL HIV Bref and 88.44% for ESTAR, while lower probabilities were observed for TSQM (44%) and WRFQ (51%).

Conclusion

The results from our machine learning algorithms are promising for predicting PROMs and PREMs in AIDS settings. This work highlights how integrating ML technologies can enhance clinical pharmaceutical decision-making and support personalized treatment strategies within a multidisciplinary integration framework. Furthermore, leveraging platforms like NAVETA for deploying these models presents a scalable approach to implementation, fostering patient-centered, value-based care.

Incorporating temporal dynamics of mutations to enhance the prediction capability of antiretroviral therapy's outcome for HIV-1

MOTIVATION

In predicting HIV therapy outcomes, a critical clinical question is whether using historical information can enhance predictive capabilities compared with current or latest available data analysis. This study analyses whether historical knowledge, which includes viral mutations detected in all genotypic tests before therapy, their temporal occurrence, and concomitant viral load measurements, can bring improvements. We introduce a method to weigh mutations, considering the previously enumerated factors and the reference mutation-drug Stanford resistance tables. We compare a model encompassing history (H) with one not using this information (NH).

RESULTS

The H-model demonstrates superior discriminative ability, with a higher ROC-AUC score (76.34%) than the NH-model (74.98%). Wilcoxon test results confirm significant improvement of predictive accuracy for treatment outcomes through incorporating historical information. The increased performance of the H-model might be attributed to its consideration of latent HIV reservoirs, probably obtained when leveraging historical information. The findings emphasize the importance of temporal dynamics in acquiring mutations. However, our result also shows that prediction accuracy remains relatively high even when no historical information is available.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

This analysis was conducted using the Euresist Integrated DataBase (EIDB). For further validation, we encourage reproducing this study with the latest release of the EIDB, which can be accessed upon request through the Euresist Network.

Web Service for HIV Drug Resistance Prediction Based on Analysis of Amino Acid Substitutions in Main Drug Targets

Predicting viral drug resistance is a significant medical concern. The importance of this problem stimulates the continuous development of experimental and new computational approaches. The use of computational approaches allows researchers to increase therapy effectiveness and reduce the time and expenses involved when the prescribed antiretroviral therapy is ineffective in the treatment of infection caused by the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1). We propose two machine learning methods and the appropriate models for predicting HIV drug resistance related to amino acid substitutions in HIV targets: (i) k-mers utilizing the random forest and the support vector machine algorithms of the scikit-learn library, and (ii) multi-n-grams using the Bayesian approach implemented in MultiPASSR software. Both multi-n-grams and k-mers were computed based on the amino acid sequences of HIV enzymes: reverse transcriptase and protease. The performance of the models was estimated by five-fold cross-validation. The resulting classification models have a relatively high reliability (minimum accuracy for the drugs is 0.82, maximum: 0.94) and were used to create a web application, HVR (HIV drug Resistance), for the prediction of HIV drug resistance to protease inhibitors and nucleoside and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors based on the analysis of the amino acid sequences of the appropriate HIV proteins from clinical samples.

RHIVDB: A Freely Accessible Database of HIV Amino Acid Sequences and Clinical Data of Infected Patients

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection remains one of the most severe problems for humanity, particularly due to the development of HIV resistance. To evaluate an association between viral sequence data and drug combinations and to estimate an effect of a particular drug combination on the treatment results, collection of the most representative drug combinations used to cure HIV and the biological data on amino acid sequences of HIV proteins is essential. We have created a new, freely available web database containing 1,651 amino acid sequences of HIV structural proteins [reverse transcriptase (RT), protease (PR), integrase (IN), and envelope protein (ENV)], treatment history information, and CD4+ cell count and viral load data available by the user's query. Additionally, the biological data on new HIV sequences and treatment data can be stored in the database by any user followed by an expert's verification. The database is available on the web at http://www.way2drug.com/rhivdb.

Machine Learning in Discovery of New Antivirals and Optimization of Viral Infections Therapy

Nowadays, computational approaches play an important role in the design of new drug-like compounds and optimization of pharmacotherapeutic treatment of diseases. The emerging growth of viral infections, including those caused by the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), Ebola virus, recently detected coronavirus, and some others, leads to many newly infected people with a high risk of death or severe complications. A huge amount of chemical, biological, clinical data is at the disposal of the researchers. Therefore, there are many opportunities to find the relationships between the particular features of chemical data and the antiviral activity of biologically active compounds based on machine learning approaches. Biological and clinical data can also be used for building models to predict relationships between viral genotype and drug resistance, which might help determine the clinical outcome of treatment. In the current study, we consider machine-learning approaches in the antiviral research carried out during the past decade. We overview in detail the application of machine-learning methods for the design of new potential antiviral agents and vaccines, drug resistance prediction, and analysis of virus-host interactions. Our review also covers the perspectives of using the machine-learning approaches for antiviral research, including Dengue, Ebola viruses, Influenza A, Human Immunodeficiency Virus, coronaviruses, and some others.

A Computational Approach for the Prediction of Treatment History and the Effectiveness or Failure of Antiretroviral Therapy

Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1) infection is associated with high mortality if no therapy is provided. Currently, the treatment of an HIV-1 positive patient requires that several drugs should be taken simultaneously. The resistance of the virus to an antiretroviral drug may lead to treatment failure. Our approach focuses on predicting the exposure of a particular viral variant to an antiretroviral drug or drug combination. It also aims at the prediction of drug treatment success or failure. We utilized nucleotide sequences of HIV-1 encoding protease and reverse transcriptase to perform such types of prediction. The PASS (Prediction of Activity Spectra for Substances) algorithm based on the naive Bayesian classifier was used to make a prediction. We calculated the probability of whether a sequence belonged (P₁) or did not belong (P₀) to the class associated with exposure of the viral sequence to the set of drugs that can be associated with resistance to the set of drugs. The accuracy calculated as the average Area Under the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) Curve (AUC/ROC) for classifying exposure of the sequence to the HIV-1 protease inhibitors was 0.81 (±0.07), and for HIV-1 reverse transcriptase, it was 0.83 (±0.07). To predict cases of treatment effectiveness or failure, we used P₁ and P₀ values, obtained in PASS, along with the binary vector constructed based on short nucleotide descriptors and the applied random forest classifier. Average AUC/ROC prediction accuracy for the prediction of treatment effectiveness or failure for the combinations of HIV-1 protease inhibitors was 0.82 (±0.06) and of HIV-1 reverse transcriptase was 0.76 (±0.09).

geno2pheno[ngs-freq]: a genotypic interpretation system for identifying viral drug resistance using next-generation sequencing data

Identifying resistance to antiretroviral drugs is crucial for ensuring the successful treatment of patients infected with viruses such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV). In contrast to Sanger sequencing, next-generation sequencing (NGS) can detect resistance mutations in minority populations. Thus, genotypic resistance testing based on NGS data can offer novel, treatment-relevant insights. Since existing web services for analyzing resistance in NGS samples are subject to long processing times and follow strictly rules-based approaches, we developed geno2pheno[ngs-freq], a web service for rapidly identifying drug resistance in HIV-1 and HCV samples. By relying on frequency files that provide the read counts of nucleotides or codons along a viral genome, the time-intensive step of processing raw NGS data is eliminated. Once a frequency file has been uploaded, consensus sequences are generated for a set of user-defined prevalence cutoffs, such that the constructed sequences contain only those nucleotides whose codon prevalence exceeds a given cutoff. After locally aligning the sequences to a set of references, resistance is predicted using the well-established approaches of geno2pheno[resistance] and geno2pheno[hcv]. geno2pheno[ngs-freq] can assist clinical decision making by enabling users to explore resistance in viral populations with different abundances and is freely available at http://ngs.geno2pheno.org.