Simulating within-vector generation of the malaria parasite diversity

Temporal changes in Plasmodium falciparum genetic diversity and multiplicity of infection across three areas of varying malaria transmission intensities in Uganda

BACKGROUND

Malaria is a significant public health challenge in Uganda, with Plasmodium falciparum (P. falciparum) responsible for most of malaria infections. The high genetic diversity and multiplicity of infection (MOI) associated with P. falciparum complicate treatment and prevention efforts. This study investigated temporal changes in P. falciparum genetic diversity and MOI across three sites with varying malaria transmission intensities. Understanding these changes is essential for informing effective malaria control strategies for the different malaria transmission settings.

METHODS

A total of 220 P. falciparum-positive dried blood spot (DBS) filter paper samples from participants in a study conducted during 2011-2012 and 2015-2016 were analyzed. Genotyping utilized seven polymorphic markers: Poly-α, TA1, TA109, PfPK2, 2490, C2M34-313, and C3M69-383. Genetic diversity metrics, including the number of alleles and expected heterozygosity, were calculated using GENALEX and ARLEQUIN software. MOI was assessed by counting distinct genotypes. Multi-locus linkage disequilibrium (LD) and genetic differentiation were evaluated using the standardized index of association (IAS) and Wright's fixation index (FST), respectively. Statistical comparisons were made using the Kruskal-Wallis test, and temporal trends were analyzed using the Jonckheere-Terpstra test, with statistical significance set at p < 0.05.

RESULTS

Of the 220 samples, 180 were successfully amplified. The majority of participants were males (50.6%) and children aged 5-11 years (46.7%). Genetic diversity remained high, with mean expected heterozygosity (He) showing a slight decrease over time (range: 0.73-0.82). Polyclonal infections exceeded 50% at all sites, and mean MOI ranged from 1.7 to 2.2, with a significant reduction in Tororo (from 2.2 to 2.0, p = 0.03). Linkage disequilibrium showed a slight increase, with Kanungu exhibiting the lowest IAS in 2011-2012 (0.0085) and Jinja the highest (0.0239) in 2015-2016. Overall genetic differentiation remained low, with slight increases in pairwise FST values over time, notably between Jinja and Tororo (from 0.0145 to 0.0353).

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the genetic diversity and MOI of P. falciparum in Uganda's malaria transmission settings, noting a slight decrease in both genetic diversity and MOI overtime. Continued surveillance and targeted control strategies are essential for monitoring the impact of malaria control efforts in Uganda.

Evolutionary modelling indicates that mosquito metabolism shapes the life-history strategies of Plasmodium parasites

Within-host survival and between-host transmission are key life-history traits of single-celled malaria parasites. Understanding the evolutionary forces that shape these traits is crucial to predict malaria epidemiology, drug resistance, and virulence. However, very little is known about how Plasmodium parasites adapt to their mosquito vectors. Here, we examine the evolution of the time Plasmodium parasites require to develop within the vector (extrinsic incubation period) with an individual-based model of malaria transmission that includes mosquito metabolism. Specifically, we model the metabolic cascade of resource allocation induced by blood-feeding, as well as the influence of multiple blood meals on parasite development. Our model predicts that successful vector-to-human transmission events are rare, and are caused by long-lived mosquitoes. Importantly, our results show that the life-history strategies of malaria parasites depend on the mosquito's metabolic status. In our model, additional resources provided by multiple blood meals lead to selection for parasites with slow or intermediate developmental time. These results challenge the current assumption that evolution favors fast developing parasites to maximize their chances to complete their within-mosquito life cycle. We propose that the long sporogonic cycle observed for Plasmodium is not a constraint but rather an adaptation to increase transmission potential.

Plasmodium falciparum msp-1 and msp-2 genetic diversity and multiplicity of infection in isolates from Congolese patients in the Republic of Congo

With limited up to date data from the Republic of Congo, the aim of this study was to investigate allelic polymorphism of merozoite surface protein-1 (msp-1) and merozoite surface protein-2 (msp-2). This will help assess the genetic diversity and multiplicity of Plasmodium falciparum infection (MOI), from uncomplicated malaria individuals living in Brazzaville. Between March and October 2021, a cross-sectional study was carried out at a health center in Madibou District located in the south of Brazzaville. Plasmodium infection was diagnosed in human blood by microscopy and the block 2 of P. falciparum msp-1 and block 3 of msp-2 genes were genotyped by nested PCR. Overall, 57 genotypes with fragment sizes ranging from 110 to 410 bp were recorded for msp-1, among which 25, 21, and 11 genotypes identified for K1, MAD20, and RO33 allelic families respectively. RO33 (34.3%) and MAD20 (34.3%) allelic families were more frequent compared to K1 (31.4%) although the difference was not statistically significant. Also, 47 msp-2 genotypes were identified, including 26 FC27 genotypes type, and 21 genotypes belonging to the 3D7 allelic family. FC27 was more frequent (52.3%) compared to 3D7 (47.7%). The prevalence of the polyclonal infection was 90.0% while the MOI was 2.90 ± 1.0. The MOI and polyclonal infection were not significantly associated with the parasitaemia and anaemia. This study reveals a high genetic diversity and the trend of increasing MOI of P. falciparum isolates from the south of Brazzaville, compared to the reports from the same setting before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Measurably recombining malaria parasites

Genomic epidemiology has guided research and policy for various viral pathogens and there has been a parallel effort towards using genomic epidemiology to combat diseases that are caused by eukaryotic pathogens, such as the malaria parasite. However, the central concept of viral genomic epidemiology, namely that of measurably mutating pathogens, does not apply easily to sexually recombining parasites. Here we introduce the related but different concept of measurably recombining malaria parasites to promote convergence around a unifying theoretical framework for malaria genomic epidemiology. Akin to viral phylodynamics, we anticipate that an inferential framework developed around recombination will help guide practical research and thus realize the full public health potential of genomic epidemiology for malaria parasites and other sexually recombining pathogens.

Targeting malaria parasites inside mosquitoes: ecoevolutionary consequences

Proof-of-concept studies demonstrate that antimalarial drugs designed for human treatment can also be applied to mosquitoes to interrupt malaria transmission. Deploying a new control tool is ideally undertaken within a stewardship programme that maximises a drug's lifespan by minimising the risk of resistance evolution and slowing its spread once emerged. We ask: what are the epidemiological and evolutionary consequences of targeting parasites within mosquitoes? Our synthesis argues that targeting parasites inside mosquitoes (i) can be modelled by readily expanding existing epidemiological frameworks; (ii) provides a functionally novel control method that has potential to be more robust to resistance evolution than targeting parasites in humans; and (iii) could extend the lifespan and clinical benefit of antimalarials used exclusively to treat humans.

Modeling cellular co-infection and reassortment of bluetongue virus in Culicoides midges

When related segmented RNA viruses co-infect a single cell, viral reassortment can occur, potentially leading to new strains with pandemic potential. One virus capable of reassortment is bluetongue virus (BTV), which causes substantial health impacts in ruminants and is transmitted via Culicoides midges. Because midges can become co-infected by feeding on multiple different host species and remain infected for their entire life span, there is a high potential for reassortment to occur. Once a midge is co-infected, additional barriers must be crossed for a reassortant virus to emerge, such as cellular co-infection and dissemination of reassortant viruses to the salivary glands. We developed three mathematical models of within-midge BTV dynamics of increasing complexity, allowing us to explore the conditions leading to the emergence of reassortant viruses. In confronting the simplest model with published data, we estimate that the average life span of a bluetongue virion in the midge midgut is about 6 h, a key determinant of establishing a successful infection. Examination of the full model, which permits cellular co-infection and reassortment, shows that small differences in fitness of the two infecting strains can have a large impact on the frequency with which reassortant virions are observed. This is consistent with experimental co-infection studies with BTV strains with different relative fitnesses that did not produce reassortant progeny. Our models also highlight several gaps in existing data that would allow us to elucidate these dynamics in more detail, in particular the times it takes the virus to disseminate to different tissues, and measurements of viral load and reassortant frequency at different temperatures.

Declines in prevalence alter the optimal level of sexual investment for the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum

Like most human pathogens, the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum experiences strong selection pressure from public health interventions such as drug treatment. While most commonly studied in the context of drug targets and related pathways, parasite adaptation to control measures likely extends to phenotypes beyond drug resistance. Here, we use modeling to explore how control measures can reduce levels of within-host competition between P. falciparum genotypes and favor higher rates of sexual investment. We validate these predictions with longitudinally sampled genomic data from French Guiana during a period of malaria decline and find that the most strongly selected genes are enriched for transcription factors involved in commitment to and development of the parasite’s sexual gametocyte form.

Successful infectious disease interventions can result in large reductions in parasite prevalence. Such demographic change has fitness implications for individual parasites and may shift the parasite’s optimal life history strategy. Here, we explore whether declining infection rates can alter Plasmodium falciparum’s investment in sexual versus asexual growth. Using a multiscale mathematical model, we demonstrate how the proportion of polyclonal infections, which decreases as parasite prevalence declines, affects the optimal sexual development strategy: Within-host competition in multiclone infections favors a greater investment in asexual growth whereas single-clone infections benefit from higher conversion to sexual forms. At the same time, drug treatment also imposes selection pressure on sexual development by shortening infection length and reducing within-host competition. We assess these models using 148 P. falciparum parasite genomes sampled in French Guiana over an 18-y period of intensive intervention (1998 to 2015). During this time frame, multiple public health measures, including the introduction of new drugs and expanded rapid diagnostic testing, were implemented, reducing P. falciparum malaria cases by an order of magnitude. Consistent with this prevalence decline, we see an increase in the relatedness among parasites, but no single clonal background grew to dominate the population. Analyzing individual allele frequency trajectories, we identify genes that likely experienced selective sweeps. Supporting our model predictions, genes showing the strongest signatures of selection include transcription factors involved in the development of P. falciparum’s sexual gametocyte form. These results highlight how public health interventions impose wide-ranging selection pressures that affect basic parasite life history traits.

Bluetongue Research at a Crossroads: Modern Genomics Tools Can Pave the Way to New Insights

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an arthropod-borne, segmented double-stranded RNA virus that can cause severe disease in both wild and domestic ruminants. BTV evolves via several key mechanisms, including the accumulation of mutations over time and the reassortment of genome segments.Additionally, BTV must maintain fitness in two disparate hosts, the insect vector and the ruminant. The specific features of viral adaptation in each host that permit host-switching are poorly characterized. Limited field studies and experimental work have alluded to the presence of these phenomena at work, but our understanding of the factors that drive or constrain BTV's genetic diversification remains incomplete. Current research leveraging novel approaches and whole genome sequencing applications promises to improve our understanding of BTV's evolution, ultimately contributing to the development of better predictive models and management strategies to reduce future impacts of bluetongue epizootics.

Estimating the extrinsic incubation period of malaria using a mechanistic model of sporogony

During sporogony, malaria-causing parasites infect a mosquito, reproduce and migrate to the mosquito salivary glands where they can be transmitted the next time blood feeding occurs. The time required for sporogony, known as the extrinsic incubation period (EIP), is an important determinant of malaria transmission intensity. The EIP is typically estimated as the time for a given percentile, x, of infected mosquitoes to develop salivary gland sporozoites (the infectious parasite life stage), which is denoted by EIPx. Many mechanisms, however, affect the observed sporozoite prevalence including the human-to-mosquito transmission probability and possibly differences in mosquito mortality according to infection status. To account for these various mechanisms, we present a mechanistic mathematical model, which explicitly models key processes at the parasite, mosquito and observational scales. Fitting this model to experimental data, we find greater variation in the EIP than previously thought: we estimated the range between EIP10 and EIP90 (at 27°C) as 4.5 days compared to 0.9 days using existing statistical methods. This pattern holds over the range of study temperatures included in the dataset. Increasing temperature from 21°C to 34°C decreased the EIP50 from 16.1 to 8.8 days. Our work highlights the importance of mechanistic modelling of sporogony to (1) improve estimates of malaria transmission under different environmental conditions or disease control programs and (2) evaluate novel interventions that target the mosquito life stages of the parasite.

Transmission-Blocking Vaccines: Harnessing Herd Immunity for Malaria Elimination

INTRODUCTION

Transmission-blocking vaccines (TBV) prevent community spread of malaria by targeting mosquito sexual stage parasites, a life-cycle bottleneck, and will be used in elimination programs. TBV rely on herd immunity to reduce mosquito infections and thereby new infections in both vaccine recipients and non-recipients, but do not provide protection once an individual receives an infectious mosquito bite which complicates clinical development.

AREAS COVERED

Here, we describe the concept and biology behind TBV, and we provide an update on clinical development of the leading vaccine candidate antigens. Search terms 'malaria vaccine,' 'sexual stages,' 'transmission blocking vaccine,' 'VIMT' and 'SSM-VIMT' were used for PubMed queries to identify relevant literature.

EXPERT OPINION

Candidates targeting P. falciparum zygote surface antigen Pfs25, and its P. vivax orthologue Pvs25, induced functional activity in humans that reduced mosquito infection in surrogate assays, but require increased durability to be useful in the field. Candidates targeting gamete surface antigens Pfs230 and Pfs48/45, respectively, are in or nearing clinical trials. Nanoparticle platforms and adjuvants are being explored to enhance immunogenicity. Efficacy trials require special considerations, such as cluster-randomized designs to measure herd immunity that reduces human and mosquito infection rates, while addressing human and mosquito movements as confounding factors.

Mathematical assessment of the impact of human-antibodies on sporogony during the within-mosquito dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum parasites

We develop and analyze a deterministic ordinary differential equation mathematical model for the within-mosquito dynamics of the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. Our model takes into account the action and effect of blood resident human-antibodies, ingested by the mosquito during a blood meal from humans, in inhibiting gamete fertilization. The model also captures subsequent developmental processes that lead to the different forms of the parasite within the mosquito. Continuous functions are used to model the switching transition from oocyst to sporozoites as well as human antibody density variations within the mosquito gut are proposed and used. In sum, our model integrates the developmental stages of the parasite within the mosquito such as gametogenesis, fertilization and sporogenesis culminating in the formation of sporozoites. Quantitative and qualitative analyses including a sensitivity analysis for influential parameters are performed. We quantify the average sporozoite load produced at the end of the within-mosquito malaria parasite's developmental stages. Our analysis shows that an increase in the efficiency of the ingested human antibodies in inhibiting fertilization within the mosquito's gut results in lowering the density of oocysts and hence sporozoites that are eventually produced by each mosquito vector. So, it is possible to control and limit oocysts development and hence sporozoites development within a mosquito by boosting the efficiency of antibodies as a pathway to the development of transmission-blocking vaccines which could potentially reduce oocysts prevalence among mosquitoes and hence reduce the transmission potential from mosquitoes to human.

The impact of within-vector parasite development on the extrinsic incubation period

Mosquito-borne diseases, in particular malaria, have a significant burden worldwide leading to nearly half a million deaths each year. The malaria parasite requires a vertebrate host, such as a human, and a vector host, the Anopheles mosquito, to complete its full life cycle. Here, we focus on the parasite dynamics within the vector to examine the first appearance of sporozoites in the salivary glands, which indicates a first time of infectiousness of mosquitoes. The timing of this period of pathogen development in the mosquito until transmissibility, known as the extrinsic incubation period, remains poorly understood. We develop compartmental models of within-mosquito parasite dynamics fitted with experimental data on oocyst and sporozoite counts. We find that only a fraction of oocysts burst to release sporozoites and bursting must be delayed either via a time-dependent function or a gamma-distributed set of compartments. We use Bayesian inference to estimate distributions of parameters and determine that bursting rate is a key epidemiological parameter. A better understanding of the factors impacting the extrinsic incubation period will aid in the development of interventions to slow or stop the spread of malaria.

A MATHEMATICAL STUDY OF THE IMPLICIT ROLE OF INNATE AND ADAPTIVE IMMUNE RESPONSES ON WITHIN-HUMAN PLASMODIUM FALCIPARUM PARASITE LEVELS

A within-human-host malaria parasite model, integrating key variables that influence parasite evolution-progression-advancement, under innate and adaptive immune responses, is analyzed. The implicit role of immunity on the steady state parasite loads and parasitemia reproduction number ([Formula: see text]), a threshold parameter measuring the parasite’s annexing ability of healthy red blood cells (HRBCs), eventually rendering a human infectious to mosquitoes, is investigated. The impact of the type of recruitment function used to model HRBC growth is also investigated. The model steady states and [Formula: see text], both obtained as functions of immune system variables, are analyzed at snapshots of immune sizes. Model results indicate that the more the immune cells, innate and adaptive, the more efficient they are at inhibiting parasite development and progression; consequently, the less severe the malaria disease in a patient. Our analysis also illustrates the existence of a Hopf bifurcation leading to a limit cycle, observable only for the nonlinear recruitment functions, at reasonably large [Formula: see text].

Genetic diversity and genotype multiplicity of Plasmodium falciparum infection in patients with uncomplicated malaria in Chewaka district, Ethiopia

Background

Genetic diversity in Plasmodium falciparum poses a major threat to malaria control and elimination interventions. Characterization of the genetic diversity of P. falciparum strains can be used to assess intensity of parasite transmission and identify potential deficiencies in malaria control programmes, which provides vital information to evaluating malaria elimination efforts. This study investigated the P. falciparum genetic diversity and genotype multiplicity of infection in parasite isolates from cases with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria in Southwest Ethiopia.

Methods

A total of 80 P. falciparum microscopy and qPCR positive blood samples were collected from study participants aged 6 months to 60 years, who visited the health facilities during study evaluating the efficacy of artemether-lumefantrine from September–December, 2017. Polymorphic regions of the msp-1 and msp-2 were genotyped by nested polymerase chain reactions (nPCR) followed by gel electrophoresis for fragment analysis.

Results

Of 80 qPCR-positive samples analysed for polymorphisms on msp-1 and msp-2 genes, the efficiency of msp-1 and msp-2 gene amplification reactions with family-specific primers were 95% and 98.8%, respectively. Allelic variation of 90% (72/80) for msp-1 and 86.2% (69/80) for msp-2 were observed. K1 was the predominant msp-1 allelic family detected in 20.8% (15/72) of the samples followed by MAD20 and RO33. Within msp-2, allelic family FC27 showed a higher frequency (26.1%) compared to IC/3D7 (15.9%). Ten different alleles were observed in msp-1 with 6 alleles for K1, 3 alleles for MAD20 and 1 allele for RO33. In msp-2, 19 individual alleles were detected with 10 alleles for FC27 and 9 alleles for 3D7. Eighty percent (80%) of isolates had multiple genotypes and the overall mean multiplicity of infection was 3.2 (95% CI 2.87–3.46). The heterozygosity indices were 0.43 and 0.85 for msp-1 and msp-2, respectively. There was no significant association between multiplicity of infection and age or parasite density.

Conclusions

The study revealed high levels of genetic diversity and mixed-strain infections of P. falciparum populations in Chewaka district, Ethiopia, suggesting that both endemicity level and malaria transmission remain high and that strengthened control efforts are needed in Ethiopia.

Mathematical modeling of climate change and malaria transmission dynamics: a historical review

Malaria, one of the greatest historical killers of mankind, continues to claim around half a million lives annually, with almost all deaths occurring in children under the age of five living in tropical Africa. The range of this disease is limited by climate to the warmer regions of the globe, and so anthropogenic global warming (and climate change more broadly) now threatens to alter the geographic area for potential malaria transmission, as both the Plasmodium malaria parasite and Anopheles mosquito vector have highly temperature-dependent lifecycles, while the aquatic immature Anopheles habitats are also strongly dependent upon rainfall and local hydrodynamics. A wide variety of process-based (or mechanistic) mathematical models have thus been proposed for the complex, highly nonlinear weather-driven Anopheles lifecycle and malaria transmission dynamics, but have reached somewhat disparate conclusions as to optimum temperatures for transmission, and the possible effect of increasing temperatures upon (potential) malaria distribution, with some projecting a large increase in the area at risk for malaria, but others predicting primarily a shift in the disease's geographic range. More generally, both global and local environmental changes drove the initial emergence of P. falciparum as a major human pathogen in tropical Africa some 10,000 years ago, and the disease has a long and deep history through the present. It is the goal of this paper to review major aspects of malaria biology, methods for formalizing these into mathematical forms, uncertainties and controversies in proper modeling methodology, and to provide a timeline of some major modeling efforts from the classical works of Sir Ronald Ross and George Macdonald through recent climate-focused modeling studies. Finally, we attempt to place such mathematical work within a broader historical context for the "million-murdering Death" of malaria.

Seasonal variations in Plasmodium falciparum genetic diversity and multiplicity of infection in asymptomatic children living in southern Ghana

Background

Genetic diversity in Plasmodium falciparum (P. falciparum) parasites is a major hurdle to the control of malaria. This study monitored changes in the genetic diversity and the multiplicity of P. falciparum parasite infection in asymptomatic children living in southern Ghana at 3 month intervals between April 2015 and January 2016.

Methods

Filter paper blood spots (DBS) were collected quarterly from children living in Obom, a community with perennial malaria transmission and Abura, a community with seasonal malaria transmission. Genomic DNA was extracted from the DBS and used in polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based genotyping of the merozoite surface protein 1 (msp 1) and merozoite surface protein 2 (msp 2) genes.

Results

Out of a total of 787 samples that were collected from the two study sites, 59.2% (466/787) tested positive for P. falciparum. The msp 1 and msp 2 genes were successfully amplified from 73.8% (344/466) and 82.5% (385/466) of the P. falciparum positive samples respectively. The geometric mean MOI in Abura ranged between 1.17 (95% CI: 1.08–1.28) and 1.48 (95% CI: 1.36–1.60) and was significantly lower (p < 0.01, Dunn’s multiple comparison test) than that determined in Obom, where the geometric mean MOI ranged between 1.82 (95% CI: 1.58–2.08) and 2.50 (95% CI: 2.33–2.678) over the study period. Whilst the msp 1 R033:MAD20:KI allelic family ratio was dynamic, the msp 2 3D7:FC27 allelic family ratio remained relatively stable across the changing seasons in both sites.

Conclusions

This study shows that seasonal variations in parasite diversity in these communities can be better estimated by msp 1 rather than msp 2 due to the constantly changing relative intra allelic frequencies observed in msp 1 and the fact that the dominance of any msp 2 allele was dependent on the transmission setting but not on the season as opposed to the dominance of any msp 1 allele, which was dependent on both the season and the transmission setting.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-018-3350-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.