Effect of eliminating CD4-count thresholds on HIV treatment initiation in South Africa: An empirical modeling study

A Risk Prediction Model to Identify People Living with HIV Who are High-risk for Disengagement from Care after HIV Diagnosis in South Africa

The provision of ART in South Africa has transformed the HIV epidemic, resulting in an increase in life expectancy by over 10 years. Despite this, nearly 2 million people living with HIV are not on treatment. The objective of this study was to develop and externally validate a practical risk assessment tool to identify people with HIV (PWH) at highest risk for attrition from care after testing. A machine learning model incorporating clinical and psychosocial factors was developed in a primary cohort of 498 PWH. LASSO regression analysis was used to optimize variable selection. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to build a model using 80% of the primary cohort as a training dataset and validated using the remaining 20% of the primary cohort and data from an independent cohort of 96 participants. The risk score was developed using the Sullivan and D'Agostino point based method. Of 498 participants with mean age 35.7 years, 192 (38%) did not initiate ART after diagnosis. Controlling for site, factors associated with non-engagement in care included being < 35 years, feeling abandoned by God, maladaptive coping strategies using alcohol or other drugs, no difficulty concentrating, and having high levels of confidence in one's ability to handle personal challenges. An effective risk score can enable clinicians and implementers to focus on tailoring care for those most in need of ongoing support. Further research should focus on potential strategies to enhance the generalizability and evaluate the implementation of the proposed risk prediction model in HIV treatment programs.

'I need time to start antiretroviral therapy': understanding reasons for delayed ART initiation among people diagnosed with HIV in Lusaka, Zambia'

INTRODUCTION

Rapid antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation can improve patient outcomes such as viral suppression and prevent new infections. However, not everyone who can start ART does so immediately.

METHODS

We conducted a qualitative study to inform interventions supporting rapid initiation in the 'Test and Start' era. We purposively sampled 20 adult patients living with HIV and a previous gap in care from ten health facilities in Lusaka, Zambia for interviews. We inductively analysed transcripts using a thematic, narrative approach. In their narratives, seven participants discussed delaying ART initiation.

RESULTS

Drawing on messages gleaned from facility-based counselling and community information, many cited greater fear of rapid sickness or death due to imperfect adherence or treatment side effects than negative health consequences due to delayed initiation. Participants described needing time to 'prepare' their minds for a lifetime treatment commitment. Concerns about inadvertent HIV status disclosure during drug collection discouraged immediate initiation, as did feeling healthy, and worries about the impact of ART initiation on relationship dynamics.

CONCLUSION

Findings suggest that counselling messages should accurately communicate treatment risks, without perpetuating fear-based narratives about HIV. Identifying and managing patient-specific concerns and reasons for the 'need for time' may be important for supporting individuals to rapidly accept lifelong treatment.Key messagesFear-based adherence messaging in health facilities about the dangers of missing a treatment dose or changing the time when ART is taken contributes to Zambian patients' refusals of immediate ART initiationResponsive health systems that balance a stated need for time to accept one's diagnosis and prepare to embark on a lifelong treatment plan with interventions to identify and manage patient-specific treatment related fears and concerns may support more rapid ART initiationPerceived social stigma around HIV continues to be a significant challenge for treatment initiation.

High mortality among patients hospitalized for drug-resistant tuberculosis with acquired second-line drug resistance and high HIV prevalence

OBJECTIVES

We compared mortality between HIV-positive and HIV-negative South African adults with drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) and high incidence of acquired second-line drug resistance.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective review of DR-TB patients with serial second-line TB drug susceptibility tests (2008-2015) who were hospitalized at a specialized TB hospital. We used Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox models to examine associations with mortality.

RESULTS

Of 245 patients, the median age was 33 years, 54% were male and 40% were HIV-positive, 96% of whom had ever received antiretroviral therapy (ART). At initial drug resistance detection, 99% of patients had resistance to at least rifampicin and isoniazid, and 18% had second-line drug resistance (fluoroquinolones and/or injectable drugs). At later testing, 88% of patients had acquired additional second-line drug resistance. Patient-initiated treatment interruptions (> 2 months) occurred in 47%. Mortality was 79%. Those with HIV had a shorter time to death (p = 0.02; log-rank): median survival time from DR-TB treatment initiation was 2.44 years [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.09-3.15] versus 3.99 years (95% CI: 3.12-4.75) for HIV-negative patients. HIV-positive patients who received ART within 6 months before DR-TB treatment had a higher mortality hazard than HIV-negative patients [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) ratio = 1.82, 95% CI: 1.21-2.74]. By contrast, HIV-positive patients who did not receive ART within 6 months before DR-TB treatment did not have a significantly higher mortality hazard than HIV-negative patients (aHR = 1.09; 95% CI: 0.72-1.65), although those on ART had lower median CD4 counts than those not on ART (157 vs. 281 cells/μL, respectively; p = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

A very high incidence of acquired second-line drug resistance and high overall mortality were observed, reinforcing the need to reduce the risk of acquired resistance and for more effective treatment.

Effect of Treatment in a Specialized Pediatric Hemato-Oncology Setting on 5-Year Survival in Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia: A Quasi-Experimental Study

Simple Summary

Adolescents and young adults (AYAs) with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) have a worse prognosis than children. In addition to differences in biology—such as higher incidence of unfavorable genetic alterations in the AYA population—this might be related to the fact that ALL patients under a certain age (often 18 years) are generally treated in special pediatric hemato-oncology settings, which is associated with improved survival, while patients above that age are treated in adult hemato-oncology care settings. Based on previous research, adult treatment settings have increasingly adopted pediatric-inspired protocols, which appear to have led to increased survival of adolescent ALL patients. This study aims to assess whether there remains an effect of treatment of ALL patients in a specialized pediatric hemato-oncology setting on 5-year survival. This study provides insight into the effects of such treatment for ALL patients, and may stimulate further research into causal relationships in other oncological conditions.

Abstract

Survival rates of adolescents and young adults (AYAs) with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) are inferior to those of pediatric ALL patients. In part, this may be caused by differences in treatment setting. Generally, children are treated in specialized pediatric hemato-oncology settings, whereas AYAs are treated in adult hemato-oncology settings. Since 2005, adult treatment protocols have included pediatric-inspired chemotherapy, which has been the standard of care for AYAs from 2008 onwards. This study aims to assess whether, despite protocols in both settings having become more similar, there remains an effect of treatment in specialized pediatric hemato-oncology settings on 5-year survival for ALL patients in the Netherlands. We used nationwide registry data (2004–2013) on 472 ALL patients aged between 10 and 30 years old. A fuzzy regression discontinuity design was applied to estimate the treatment effect using two-stage least squares regression with the treatment threshold at 17 years and 7 months of age, adjusting for sex, age at diagnosis, and immunophenotype. We found a risk difference of 0.419 (p = 0.092; 95% CI = −0.0686; 0.907), meaning a 41.9 percentage point greater probability of surviving five years after diagnosis for ALL patients treated in specialized pediatric hemato-oncology settings. Our results suggest that ALL patients around the threshold could benefit from increased collaboration between pediatric and adult hemato-oncology in terms of survival.

Understanding Repeat Positive HIV Testing in South Africa Under Changing Treatment Guidelines

Some people with HIV (PWH) test positive multiple times without initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART). We surveyed 496 ART-eligible PWH following routine HIV testing at three clinics in Soweto and Gugulethu, South Africa in 2014-2015. Among repeat positive testers (RPTs) in this cohort, we compared rates of treatment initiation by prior treatment eligibility and assessed psychosocial predictors of treatment initiation in logistic regression models. RPTs represented 33.8% of PWH in this cohort. Less than half of those who reported eligibility for ART on prior testing started treatment upon retesting, in contrast to two thirds of RPTs who were previously ineligible for treatment who started treatment once they learned of their eligibility. Those who reported coping through substance use were more likely to decline treatment versus those not using substances. PWH who test repeatedly represent a vulnerable population at risk for ART non-initiation who may benefit from interventions addressing individualized coping strategies.

Longitudinal analysis of sociodemographic, clinical and therapeutic factors of HIV-infected individuals in Kinshasa at antiretroviral therapy initiation during 2006-2017

Background

The benefits of antiretroviral therapy (ART) underpin the recommendations for the early detection of HIV infection and ART initiation. Late initiation (LI) of antiretroviral therapy compromises the benefits of ART both individually and in the community. Indeed, it promotes the transmission of infection and higher HIV-related morbidity and mortality with complicated and costly clinical management.

This study aims to analyze the evolutionary trends in the median CD4 count, the median time to initiation of ART, the proportion of patients with advanced HIV disease at the initiation of ART between 2006 and 2017 and their factors.

Methods and findings

HIV-positive adults (≥ 16 years old) who initiated ART between January 1, 2006 and December 31, 2017 in 25 HIV care facilities in Kinshasa, the capital of DRC, were eligible. The data were processed anonymously. LI is defined as CD4≤350 cells/μl and/or WHO clinical stage III or IV and advanced HIV disease (AHD), as CD4≤200 cells/μl and/or stage WHO clinic IV. Factors associated with advanced HIV disease at ART initiation were analyzed, irrespective of year of enrollment in HIV care, using logistic regression models.

A total of 7278 patients (55% admitted after 2013) with an average age of 40.9 years were included. The majority were composed of women (71%), highly educated women (68%) and married or widowed women (61%). The median CD4 was 213 cells/μl, 76.7% of patients had CD4≤350 cells/μl, 46.1% had CD4≤200 cells/μl, and 59% of patients were at WHO clinical stages 3 or 4. Men had a more advanced clinical stage (p <0.046) and immunosuppression (p<0.0007) than women.

Overall, 70% of patients started ART late, and 25% had AHD. Between 2006 and 2017, the median CD4 count increased from 190 cells/μl to 331 cells/μl (p<0.0001), and the proportions of patients with LI and AHD decreased from 76% to 47% (p< 0.0001) and from 18.7% to 8.9% (p<0.0001), respectively.

The median time to initiation of ART after screening for HIV infection decreased from 40 to zero months (p<0.0001), and the proportion of time to initiation of ART in the month increased from 39 to 93.3% (p<0.0001) in the same period.

The probability of LI of ART was higher in married couples (OR: 1.7; 95% CI: 1.3–2.3) (p<0.0007) and lower in patients with higher education (OR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.64–0.86) (p<0.0001).

Conclusion

Despite increasingly rapid treatment, the proportions of LI and AHD remain high. New approaches to early detection, the first condition for early ART and a key to ending the HIV epidemic, such as home and work HIV testing, HIV self-testing and screening at the point of service, must be implemented.

Self-reported motivators for HIV testing in the treat-all era among HIV positive patients in Johannesburg, South Africa

To explore associations between self-reported ill-health as a primary motivator for HIV-testing and socio-demographic factors.Four local primary healthcare clinics in Johannesburg, South Africa.A total of 529 newly HIV diagnosed adults (≥18 years) enrolled from October 2017 to August 2018, participated in the survey on the same day of diagnosis.Testing out of own initiative or perceived HIV exposure was categorized as asymptomatic. Reporting ill-health as the main reason for testing was categorized as symptomatic. Modified Poisson regression was used to evaluate predictors of motivators for HIV testing.Overall, 327/520 (62.9%) participants reported symptoms as the main motivator for testing. Among the asymptomatic, 17.1% reported potential HIV exposure as a reason for testing, while 20.0% just wanted to know their HIV status. Baseline predictors of symptom-related motivators for HIV testing include disclosing intention to test (aPR 1.4 for family/friend/others vs partners/spouse, 95% CI: 1.1-1.8; aPR 1.4 for not disclosing vs partners/spouse, 95% CI: 1.1-1.7), and HIV testing history (aPR 1.2 for last HIV test >12-months ago vs last test 12-months prior, 95% CI: 1.0-1.5; aPR 1.3 for never tested for HIV before vs last test 12-months prior, 95%CI:1.0-1.6).Findings indicate that newly diagnosed HIV positive patients still enter care because of ill-health, not prevention purposes. Increasing early HIV testing remains essential to maximize the benefits of expanded ART access.

Health provider perspectives on the implementation of the same-day-ART initiation policy in the Gauteng province of South Africa

Background

In September 2016, South Africa (SA) began implementing the universal-test-and-treat (UTT) policy in hopes of attaining the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets by 2020. The SA National Department of Health provided a further directive to initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) on the day of HIV diagnosis in September 2017. We conducted a qualitative study to determine the progress in implementing UTT and examine health providers' perspectives on the implementation of the same-day initiation (SDI) policy, six months after the policy change.

Methods

We conducted in-depth interviews with three professional nurses, and four HIV lay counsellors of five primary health clinics in the Gauteng province, between October and December 2017. In September 2018, we also conducted a focus group discussion with ten professional nurses/clinic managers from ten clinic facilities. The interviews and focus groups covered the adoption and implementation of UTT and SDI policies. Interviews were conducted in English, Sotho or Zulu and audio-recorded with participant consent. Audio-recordings were transcribed verbatim, translated to English and analysed thematically using NVivo 11.

Results

The data indicates inconsistencies across facilities and incongruities between counsellor and nursing provider perspectives regarding the SDI policy implementation. While nurses highlighted the clinical benefits of early ART initiation, they expressed concerns that immediate ART may be overwhelming for some patients, who may be unprepared and likely to disengage from care soon after the initial acceptance of ART. Accordingly, the SDI implementation was slow due to limited patient demand, provider ambivalence to the policy implementations, as well as challenges with infrastructure and human resources. The process for assessing patient readiness was poorly defined by health providers across facilities, inconsistent and counsellor dependent. Providers were also unclear on how to ensure that patients who defer treatment return for ongoing counselling.

Conclusions

Our results highlight important gaps in the drive to achieve the ART initiation target and demonstrate the need for further engagement with health care providers around the implementation of same-day ART initiation, particularly with regards to infrastructural/capacity needs and the management of patient readiness for lifelong ART on the day of HIV diagnosis. Additionally, there is a need for improved promotion of the SDI provision both in health care settings and in media communications to increase patient demand for early and lifelong ART.

Test but not treat: Community members' experiences with barriers and facilitators to universal antiretroviral therapy uptake in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Introduction

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has revolutionised the care of HIV-positive individuals resulting in marked decreases in morbidity and mortality, and markedly reduced transmission to sexual partners. However, these benefits can only be realised if individuals are aware of their HIV-positive status, initiated and retained on suppressive lifelong ART. Framed using the socio-ecological model, the present study explores factors contributing to poor ART uptake among community members despite high acceptance of HIV-testing within a Treatment as Prevention (TasP) trial. In this paper we identify barriers and facilitators to treatment across different levels of the socio-ecological framework covering individual, community and health system components.

Methods

This research was embedded within a cluster-randomised trial (ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01509508) of HIV treatment as Prevention in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Data were collected between January 2013 and July 2014 from resident community members. Ten participants contributed to repeat in-depth interviews whilst 42 participants took part in repeat focus group discussions. Data from individual interviews and focus group discussions were triangulated using community walks to give insights into community members’ perception of the barriers and facilitators of ART uptake. We used thematic analysis guided by a socio-ecological framework to analyse participants’ narratives from both individual interviews and focus group discussions.

Results

Barriers and facilitators operating at the individual, community and health system levels influence ART uptake. Stigma was an over-arching barrier, across all three levels and expressed variably as fear of HIV disclosure, concerns about segregated HIV clinical services and negative community religious perceptions. Other barriers were individual (substance misuse, fear of ART side effects), community (alternative health beliefs). Facilitators cited by participants included individual (expectations of improved health and longer life expectancy following ART, single tablet regimens), community (availability of ART in the community through mobile trial facilities) and health system factors (fast and efficient service provided by friendly staff).

Discussion

We identified multiple barriers to achieving universal ART uptake. To enhance uptake in HIV care services, and achieve the full benefits of ART requires interventions that tackle persistent HIV stigma, and offer people with HIV respectful, convenient and efficient services. These interventions require evaluation in appropriately designed studies.

Changes in rapid HIV treatment initiation after national "treat all" policy adoption in 6 sub-Saharan African countries: Regression discontinuity analysis

BACKGROUND

Most countries have formally adopted the World Health Organization's 2015 recommendation of universal HIV treatment ("treat all"). However, there are few rigorous assessments of the real-world impact of treat all policies on antiretroviral treatment (ART) uptake across different contexts.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used longitudinal data for 814,603 patients enrolling in HIV care between 1 January 2004 and 10 July 2018 in 6 countries participating in the global International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) consortium: Burundi (N = 11,176), Kenya (N = 179,941), Malawi (N = 84,558), Rwanda (N = 17,396), Uganda (N = 96,286), and Zambia (N = 425,246). Using a quasi-experimental regression discontinuity design, we assessed the change in the proportion initiating ART within 30 days of enrollment in HIV care (rapid ART initiation) after country-level adoption of the treat all policy. A modified Poisson model was used to identify factors associated with failure to initiate ART rapidly under treat all. In each of the 6 countries, over 60% of included patients were female, and median age at enrollment ranged from 32 to 36 years. In all countries studied, national adoption of treat all was associated with large increases in rapid ART initiation. Significant increases in rapid ART initiation immediately after treat all policy adoption were observed in Rwanda, from 44.4% to 78.9% of patients (34.5 percentage points [pp], 95% CI 27.2 to 41.7; p < 0.001), Kenya (25.7 pp, 95% CI 21.8 to 29.5; p < 0.001), Burundi (17.7 pp, 95% CI 6.5 to 28.9; p = 0.002), and Malawi (12.5 pp, 95% CI 7.5 to 17.5; p < 0.001), while no immediate increase was observed in Zambia (0.4 pp, 95% CI -2.9 to 3.8; p = 0.804) and Uganda (-4.2 pp, 95% CI -9.0 to 0.7; p = 0.090). The rate of rapid ART initiation accelerated sharply following treat all policy adoption in Malawi, Uganda, and Zambia; slowed in Kenya; and did not change in Rwanda and Burundi. In post hoc analyses restricted to patients enrolling under treat all, young adults (16-24 years) and men were at increased risk of not rapidly initiating ART (compared to older patients and women, respectively). However, rapid ART initiation following enrollment increased for all groups as more time elapsed since treat all policy adoption. Study limitations include incomplete data on potential ART eligibility criteria, such as clinical status, pregnancy, and enrollment CD4 count, which precluded the assessment of rapid ART initiation specifically among patients known to be eligible for ART before treat all.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis indicates that adoption of treat all policies had a strong effect on increasing rates of rapid ART initiation, and that these increases followed different trajectories across the 6 countries. Young adults and men still require additional attention to further improve rapid ART initiation.

Understanding the role of resilience resources, antiretroviral therapy initiation, and HIV-1 RNA suppression among people living with HIV in South Africa: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Failure to initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) and achieve virologic suppression are significant barriers to the United Nations 90-90-90 goals. Identifying resilience resources, or modifiable strength-based factors, among people living with HIV is critical for successful HIV treatment and prevention.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

METHODS

From July 2014 to July 2015, 500 adults presenting for voluntary counseling and HIV testing who were diagnosed with HIV and were ART-eligible in South Africa (Soweto and Gugulethu) were enrolled and surveyed. Logistic regression models assessed resilience-related predictors of ART initiation within 6 months of voluntary counseling and HIV testing for HIV, and HIV-1 plasma RNA suppression within 9 months, adjusting for sociodemographic factors.

RESULTS

Within 6 months, 62% initiated ART, and within 9 months, 25% had evidence of an undetectable HIV-1 plasma RNA (<50 copies/ml). Participants who initiated ART relied less on social support from friends [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.89-0.99], coped using self-distraction (aOR 1.05, 95% CI: 1.00-1.10) and avoided coping through substance use (aOR 0.79, 95% CI: 0.65-0.97), as compared with participants who did not initiate ART. Those who achieved plasma RNA suppression relied more on social support from a significant other/partner (aOR 1.04, 95% CI: 1.02-1.07), used positive religious coping (aOR 1.03, 95% CI: 1.00-1.07), and were less likely to engage in denial coping (aOR 0.84, 95% CI: 0.77-0.92), compared with those who initiated ART but did not achieve plasma RNA suppression.

CONCLUSION

Interventions optimizing resilience resources and decreasing maladaptive coping strategies (e.g., substance use, denial) may present a feasible approach to maximizing ART-based HIV treatment strategies among South African people living with HIV.

Risks and Benefits of Dolutegravir- and Efavirenz-Based Strategies for South African Women With HIV of Child-Bearing Potential: A Modeling Study

Background

Dolutegravir is superior to efavirenz for HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) but may be associated with an increased risk for neural tube defects (NTDs) in newborns if used by women at conception.

Objective

To project clinical outcomes of ART policies for women of child-bearing potential in South Africa.

Design

Model of 3 strategies: efavirenz for all women of child-bearing potential (EFV), dolutegravir for all women of child-bearing potential (DTG), or World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended efavirenz without contraception or dolutegravir with contraception (WHO approach).

Data Sources

Published data on NTD risks (efavirenz, 0.05%; dolutegravir, 0.67% [Tsepamo study]), 48-week ART efficacy with initiation (efavirenz, 60% to 91%; dolutegravir, 96%), and age-stratified fertility rates (2 to 139 per 1000 women).

Target Population

3.1 million South African women with HIV (aged 15 to 49 years) starting or continuing first-line ART, and their children.

Time Horizon

5 years.

Perspective

Societal.

Intervention

EFV, DTG, and WHO approach.

Outcome Measures

Deaths among women and children, sexual and pediatric HIV transmissions, and NTDs.

Results of Base-Case Analysis

Compared with EFV, DTG averted 13 700 women's deaths (0.44% decrease) and 57 700 sexual HIV transmissions, but increased total pediatric deaths by 4400 because of more NTDs. The WHO approach offered some benefits compared with EFV, averting 4900 women's deaths and 20 500 sexual transmissions while adding 300 pediatric deaths. Overall, combined deaths among women and children were lowest with DTG (358 000 deaths) compared with the WHO approach (362 800 deaths) or EFV (367 300 deaths).

Results of Sensitivity Analysis

Women's deaths averted with DTG exceeded pediatric deaths added with EFV unless dolutegravir-associated NTD risk was 1.5% or greater.

Limitation

Uncertainty in NTD risks and dolutegravir efficacy in resource-limited settings, each examined in sensitivity analyses.

Conclusion

Although NTD risks may be higher with dolutegravir than efavirenz, dolutegravir will lead to many fewer deaths among women, as well as fewer overall HIV transmissions. These results argue against a uniform policy of avoiding dolutegravir in women of child-bearing potential.

Primary Funding Source

National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development; Massachusetts General Hospital; and Harvard University Center for AIDS Research.

Clinical predictor score to identify patients at risk of poor viral load suppression at six months on antiretroviral therapy: results from a prospective cohort study in Johannesburg, South Africa

Purpose: As countries work toward 90:90:90 targets, early identification of patients with inadequate response to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is critical for achieving optimal HIV treatment outcomes. We developed and evaluated a clinical prediction score (CPS) to identify HIV-positive patients at risk of poor viral load suppression at 6 months on ART. Patients and methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study of HIV-positive ART naïve adults (≥18 years) initiating standard first-line ART between February 2012 and April 2014 at Themba Lethu Clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa. We used Modified Poisson regression to estimate the association between patient characteristics and poor viral load suppression, defined as a viral load ≥400 copies/mL at 6 months on ART. We developed a CPS following the Spiegel Halter and Knill-Jones approach and determined the diagnostic accuracy compared to viral load as the "gold standard". We identified the optimal cutoff at which the CPS would identify those at risk of poor viral load suppression. Results: Among 353 patients, 67.7% had a viral load measurement at 6 months on ART and 30.1% of these were viremic (≥400 copies/mL). Male gender, platelet count <150 cells/mm3, ≥7 days late for ≥2 ARV visits, visual analog scale (VAS) <90% and <14.5 fL increase in mean cell volume from baseline to 6 months were included in the CPS. The optimal cutoff was 5 (≥5 vs <5; sensitivity [Se] 65.3%, specificity [Sp] 46.7%) and the CPS performed better than standard measures of adherence (eg, VAS Se 24.5%; Simplified Medication Adherence Questionnaire Se 26.5%). Conclusion: Our findings suggest a 6-month CPS may have the potential to identify patients at risk of poor viral load suppression. The CPS may be used to target patients who need intensive adherence support, with the caveat that there may be a three- to four-fold increase in the pool of patients identified for adherence counseling.

Research priorities to inform "Treat All" policy implementation for people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa: a consensus statement from the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA)

INTRODUCTION

"Treat All" - the treatment of all people with HIV, irrespective of disease stage or CD4 cell count - represents a paradigm shift in HIV care that has the potential to end AIDS as a public health threat. With accelerating implementation of Treat All in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), there is a need for a focused agenda and research to identify and inform strategies for promoting timely uptake of HIV treatment, retention in care, and sustained viral suppression and addressing bottlenecks impeding implementation.

METHODS

The Delphi approach was used to develop consensus around research priorities for Treat All implementation in SSA. Through an iterative process (June 2017 to March 2018), a set of research priorities was collectively formulated and refined by a technical working group and shared for review, deliberation and prioritization by more than 200 researchers, implementation experts, policy/decision-makers, and HIV community representatives in East, Central, Southern and West Africa.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The process resulted in a list of nine research priorities for generating evidence to guide Treat All policies, implementation strategies and monitoring efforts. These priorities highlight the need for increased focus on adolescents, men, and those with mental health and substance use disorders - groups that remain underserved in SSA and for whom more effective testing, linkage and care strategies need to be identified. The priorities also reflect consensus on the need to: (1) generate accurate national and sub-national estimates of the size of key populations and describe those who remain underserved along the HIV-care continuum; (2) characterize the timeliness of HIV care and short- and long-term HIV care continuum outcomes, as well as factors influencing timely achievement of these outcomes; (3) estimate the incidence and prevalence of HIV-drug resistance and regimen switching; and (4) identify cost-effective and affordable service delivery models and strategies to optimize uptake and minimize gaps, disparities, and losses along the HIV-care continuum, particularly among underserved populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Reflecting consensus among a broad group of experts, researchers, policy- and decision-makers, PLWH, and other stakeholders, the resulting research priorities highlight important evidence gaps that are relevant for ministries of health, funders, normative bodies and research networks.

Why do people living with HIV not initiate treatment? A systematic review of qualitative evidence from low- and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

Many people living with HIV (PLWH) who are eligible for antiretroviral therapy (ART) do not initiate treatment, leading to excess morbidity, mortality, and viral transmission. As countries move to treat all PLWH at diagnosis, it is critical to understand reasons for non-initiation.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of the qualitative literature on reasons for ART non-initiation in low- and middle-income countries. We screened 1376 titles, 680 abstracts, and 154 full-text reports of English-language qualitative studies published January 2000-April 2017; 20 met criteria for inclusion. Our analysis involved three steps. First, we used a "thematic synthesis" approach, identifying supply-side (facility) and demand-side (patient) factors commonly cited across different studies and organizing these factors into themes. Second, we conducted a theoretical mapping exercise, developing an explanatory model for patients' decision-making process to start (or not to start) ART, based on inductive analysis of evidence reviewed. Third, we used this explanatory model to identify opportunities to intervene to increase ART uptake.

RESULTS

Demand-side factors implicated in decisions not to start ART included feeling healthy, low social support, gender norms, HIV stigma, and difficulties translating intentions into actions. Supply-side factors included high care-seeking costs, concerns about confidentiality, low-quality health services, recommended lifestyle changes, and incomplete knowledge of treatment benefits. Developing an explanatory model, which we labeled the Transdisciplinary Model of Health Decision-Making, we posited that contextual factors determine the costs and benefits of ART; patients perceive this context (through cognitive and emotional appraisals) and form an intention whether or not to start; and these intentions may (or may not) be translated into actions. Interventions can target each of these three stages.

CONCLUSIONS

Reasons for not starting ART included consistent themes across studies. Future interventions could: (1) provide information on the large health and prevention benefits of ART and the low side effects of current regimens; (2) reduce stigma at the patient and community levels and increase confidentiality where stigma persists; (3) remove lifestyle requirements and support patients in integrating ART into their lives; and (4) alleviate economic burdens of ART. Interventions addressing reasons for non-initiation will be critical to the success of HIV "treat all" strategies.

Estimating the real-world effects of expanding antiretroviral treatment eligibility: Evidence from a regression discontinuity analysis in Zambia

BACKGROUND

Although randomized trials have established the clinical efficacy of treating all persons living with HIV (PLWHs), expanding treatment eligibility in the real world may have additional behavioral effects (e.g., changes in retention) or lead to unintended consequences (e.g., crowding out sicker patients owing to increased patient volume). Using a regression discontinuity design, we sought to assess the effects of a previous change to Zambia's HIV treatment guidelines increasing the threshold for treatment eligibility from 350 to 500 cells/μL to anticipate effects of current global efforts to treat all PLWHs.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We analyzed antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naïve adults who newly enrolled in HIV care in a network of 64 clinics operated by the Zambian Ministry of Health and supported by the Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia (CIDRZ). Patients were restricted to those enrolling in a narrow window around the April 1, 2014 change to Zambian HIV treatment guidelines that raised the CD4 threshold for treatment from 350 to 500 cells/μL (i.e., August 1, 2013, to November 1, 2014). Clinical and sociodemographic data were obtained from an electronic medical record system used in routine care. We used a regression discontinuity design to estimate the effects of this change in treatment eligibility on ART initiation within 3 months of enrollment, retention in care at 6 months (defined as clinic attendance between 3 and 9 months after enrollment), and a composite of both ART initiation by 3 months and retention in care at 6 months in all new enrollees. We also performed an instrumental variable (IV) analysis to quantify the effect of actually initiating ART because of this guideline change on retention. Overall, 34,857 ART-naïve patients (39.1% male, median age 34 years [IQR 28-41], median CD4 268 cells/μL [IQR 134-430]) newly enrolled in HIV care during this period; 23,036 were analyzed after excluding patients around the threshold to allow for clinic-to-clinic variations in actual guideline uptake. In all newly enrolling patients, expanding the CD4 threshold for treatment from 350 to 500 cells/μL was associated with a 13.6% absolute increase in ART initiation within 3 months of enrollment (95% CI, 11.1%-16.2%), a 4.1% absolute increase in retention at 6 months (95% CI, 1.6%-6.7%), and a 10.8% absolute increase in the percentage of patients who initiated ART by 3 months and were retained at six months (95% CI, 8.1%-13.5%). These effects were greatest in patients who would have become newly eligible for ART with the change in guidelines: a 43.7% increase in ART initiation by 3 months (95% CI, 37.5%-49.9%), 13.6% increase in retention at six months (95% CI, 7.3%-20.0%), and a 35.5% increase in the percentage of patients on ART at 3 months and still in care at 6 months [95% CI, 29.2%-41.9%). We did not observe decreases in ART initiation or retention in patients not directly targeted by the guideline change. An IV analysis found that initiating ART in response to the guideline change led to a 37.9% (95% CI, 28.8%-46.9%) absolute increase in retention in care. Limitations of this study include uncertain generalizability under newer models of care, lack of laboratory data (e.g., viral load), inability to account for earlier stages in the HIV care cascade (e.g., HIV testing and linkage), and potential for misclassification of eligibility status or outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, guidelines raising the CD4 threshold for treatment from 350 to 500 cells/μL were associated with a rapid rise in ART initiation as well as enhanced retention among newly treatment-eligible patients, without negatively impacting patients with lower CD4 levels. These data suggest that health systems in Zambia and other high-prevalence settings could substantially enhance engagement even among those with high CD4 levels (i.e., above 500 cells/μL) by expanding treatment without undermining existing care standards.

HIV treatment eligibility expansion and timely antiretroviral treatment initiation following enrollment in HIV care: A metaregression analysis of programmatic data from 22 countries

BACKGROUND

The effect of antiretroviral treatment (ART) eligibility expansions on patient outcomes, including rates of timely ART initiation among those enrolling in care, has not been assessed on a large scale. In addition, it is not known whether ART eligibility expansions may lead to "crowding out" of sicker patients.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We examined changes in timely ART initiation (within 6 months) at the original site of HIV care enrollment after ART eligibility expansions among 284,740 adult ART-naïve patients at 171 International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) network sites in 22 countries where national policies expanding ART eligibility were introduced between 2007 and 2015. Half of the sites included in this analysis were from Southern Africa, one-third were from East Africa, and the remainder were from the Asia-Pacific, Central Africa, North America, and South and Central America regions. The median age of patients enrolling in care at contributing sites was 33.5 years, and the median percentage of female patients at these clinics was 62.5%. We assessed the 6-month cumulative incidence of timely ART initiation (CI-ART) before and after major expansions of ART eligibility (i.e., expansion to treat persons with CD4 ≤ 350 cells/μL [145 sites in 22 countries] and CD4 ≤ 500 cells/μL [152 sites in 15 countries]). Random effects metaregression models were used to estimate absolute changes in CI-ART at each site before and after guideline expansion. The crude pooled estimate of change in CI-ART was 4.3 percentage points (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.6 to 6.1) after ART eligibility expansion to CD4 ≤ 350, from a baseline median CI-ART of 53%; and 15.9 percentage points (pp) (95% CI 14.3 to 17.4) after ART eligibility expansion to CD4 ≤ 500, from a baseline median CI-ART of 57%. The largest increases in CI-ART were observed among those newly eligible for treatment (18.2 pp after expansion to CD4 ≤ 350 and 47.4 pp after expansion to CD4 ≤ 500), with no change or small increases among those eligible under prior guidelines (CD4 ≤ 350: -0.6 pp, 95% CI -2.0 to 0.7 pp; CD4 ≤ 500: 4.9 pp, 95% CI 3.3 to 6.5 pp). For ART eligibility expansion to CD4 ≤ 500, changes in CI-ART were largest among younger patients (16-24 years: 21.5 pp, 95% CI 18.9 to 24.2 pp). Key limitations include the lack of a counterfactual and difficulty accounting for secular outcome trends, due to universal exposure to guideline changes in each country.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings underscore the potential of ART eligibility expansion to improve the timeliness of ART initiation globally, particularly for young adults.

Failure to initiate HIV treatment in patients with high CD4 counts: evidence from demographic surveillance in rural South Africa

OBJECTIVES

To assess the relationship between CD4 count at presentation and ART uptake and assess predictors of timely treatment initiation in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

METHODS

We used Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards models to assess the association between first CD4 count and time from first CD4 to ART initiation among all adults presenting to the Hlabisa HIV Treatment and Care Programme between August 2011 and December 2012 with treatment-eligible CD4 counts (≤ 350 cells/mm3 ). For a subset of healthier patients (200 < CD4 ≤ 350 cells) residing within the population surveillance of the Africa Health Research Institute, we assessed sociodemographic, economic and geographic predictors hypothesised to influence ART uptake.

RESULTS

A total of 4739 patients presented for care with eligible CD4 counts. The proportion initiating ART within six months of diagnosis was 67% (95% CI 63, 71) in patients with CD4 ≤ 50, 59% (0.55, 0.63) in patients with CD4 151-200 and 48% (95% CI 44, 51) in patients with CD4 301-350. The hazard of starting ART fell by 17% (95% CI 14, 20) for every 100-cell increase in baseline CD4 count. Among healthier patients under demographic surveillance (n = 193), observable sociodemographic, economic and geographic predictors did not add discriminatory power beyond CD4 count, age and sex to identify patients at high risk of non-initiation.

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals presenting for HIV care at higher CD4 counts were less likely to initiate ART than patients presenting at low CD4 counts. Overall, ART uptake was low. Under new guidelines that establish ART eligibility regardless of CD4 count, patients with high CD4 counts may require additional interventions to encourage treatment initiation.

Implementing universal HIV treatment in a high HIV prevalence and rural South African setting - Field experiences and recommendations of health care providers

Background

We aimed to describe the field experiences and recommendations of clinic-based health care providers (HCP) regarding the implementation of universal antiretroviral therapy (ART) in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Methods

In Hlabisa sub-district, the local HIV programme of the Department of Health (DoH) is decentralized in 18 clinics, where ART was offered at a CD4 count ≤500 cells/μL from January 2015 to September 2016. Within the ANRS 12249 TasP trial, implemented in part of the sub-district, universal ART (no eligibility criteria) was offered in 11 mobile clinics between March 2012 and June 2016. A cross-sectional qualitative survey was conducted in April–July 2016 among clinic-based nurses and counsellors providing HIV care in the DoH and TasP trial clinics. In total, 13 individual interviews and two focus groups discussions (including 6 and 7 participants) were conducted, audio-recorded, transcribed, and thematically analyzed.

Results

All HCPs reported an overall good experience of delivering ART early in the course of HIV infection, with most patients willing to initiate ART before being symptomatic. Yet, HCPs underlined that not feeling sick could challenge early ART initiation and adherence, and thus highlighted the need to take time for counselling as an important component to achieve universal ART. HCPs also foresaw logistical challenges of universal ART, and were especially concerned about increasing workload and ART shortage. HCPs finally recommended the need to strengthen the existing model of care to facilitate access to ART, e.g., community-based and integrated HIV services.

Conclusions

The provision of universal ART is feasible and acceptable according to HCPs in this rural South-African area. However their experiences suggest that universal ART, and more generally the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets, will be difficult to achieve without the implementation of new models of health service delivery.

Treatment eligibility and retention in clinical HIV care: A regression discontinuity study in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Loss to follow-up is high among HIV patients not yet receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). Clinical trials have demonstrated the clinical efficacy of early ART; however, these trials may miss an important real-world consequence of providing ART at diagnosis: its impact on retention in care.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We examined the effect of immediate (versus deferred) ART on retention in care using a regression discontinuity design. The analysis included all patients (N = 11,306) entering clinical HIV care with a first CD4 count between 12 August 2011 and 31 December 2012 in a public-sector HIV care and treatment program in rural South Africa. Patients were assigned to immediate versus deferred ART eligibility, as determined by a CD4 count < 350 cells/μl, per South African national guidelines. Patients referred to pre-ART care were instructed to return every 6 months for CD4 monitoring. Patients initiated on ART were instructed to return at 6 and 12 months post-initiation and annually thereafter for CD4 and viral load monitoring. We assessed retention in HIV care at 12 months, as measured by the presence of a clinic visit, lab test, or ART initiation 6 to 18 months after initial CD4 test. Differences in retention between patients presenting with CD4 counts just above versus just below the 350-cells/μl threshold were estimated using local linear regression models with a data-driven bandwidth and with the algorithm for selecting the bandwidth chosen ex ante. Among patients with CD4 counts close to the 350-cells/μl threshold, having an ART-eligible CD4 count (<350 cells/μl) was associated with higher 12-month retention than not having an ART-eligible CD4 count (50% versus 32%), an intention-to-treat risk difference of 18 percentage points (95% CI 11 to 23; p < 0.001). The decision to start ART was determined by CD4 count for one in four patients (25%) presenting close to the eligibility threshold (95% CI 20% to 31%; p < 0.001). In this subpopulation, having an ART-eligible CD4 count was associated with higher 12-month retention than not having an ART-eligible CD4 count (91% versus 21%), a complier causal risk difference of 70 percentage points (95% CI 42 to 98; p < 0.001). The major limitations of the study are the potential for limited generalizability, the potential for outcome misclassification, and the absence of data on longer-term health outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients who were eligible for immediate ART had dramatically higher retention in HIV care than patients who just missed the CD4-count eligibility cutoff. The clinical and population health benefits of offering immediate ART regardless of CD4 count may be larger than suggested by clinical trials.