Prediction of insect pest distribution as influenced by elevation: Combining field observations and temperature-dependent development models for the coffee stink bug, Antestiopsis thunbergii (Gmelin)

Cotton production areas are at high risk of invasion by Amrasca biguttula (Ishida) (Cicadellidae: Hemiptera): potential distribution under climate change

BACKGROUND

The cotton jassid, Amrasca biguttula, a dangerous and polyphagous pest, has recently invaded the Middle East, Africa and South America, raising concerns about the future of cotton and other food crops including okra, eggplant and potato. However, its potential distribution remains largely unknown, posing a challenge in developing effective phytosanitary strategies. We used an ensemble model of six machine-learning algorithms including random forest, maxent, support vector machines, classification and regression tree, generalized linear model and boosted regression trees to forecast the potential distribution of A. biguttula in the present and future using presence records of the pest and bioclimatic predictors. The accuracy of these algorithms was assessed based on the area under the curve (AUC), correlation (COR), deviance and true skill statistic (TSS).

RESULTS

All algorithms showed good performance in forecasting the distribution of A. biguttula (AUC ≥ 0.91, COR ≥ 0.72, TSS ≥ 0.77 and deviance ≤ 0.65). Mean temperature of wettest quarter, mean temperature of driest quarter and precipitation of the wettest month were the key variables that contributed to predicting A. biguttula occurrence. Projection of the model showed that cotton production areas in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and South America are at threat of invasion by A. biguttula under the current climatic scenario. Additionally, range expansion for A. biguttula is projected in the future in sub-Saharan Africa, South America and China, indicating a suitable ecological niche for A. biguttula to thrive.

CONCLUSION

Our results provide early warning and decision-making information that can guide efforts to prevent this pest's further spread and invasion into new areas. © 2025 Society of Chemical Industry.

Potential global distributions of an important aphid pest, Rhopalosiphum padi: insights from ensemble models with multiple variables

Species distribution modeling is extensively used for predicting potential distributions of invasive species. However, an ensemble modeling approach has been less frequently used particularly pest species. The bird cherry-oat aphid Rhopalosiphum padi L. is an important pest of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) worldwide and causes 30% yield losses. Here, we developed a series of ensemble models with multiple variables to predict the habitat suitability of this pest at a global scale. The current suitable habitat for R. padi is mainly distributed in East Asia, South Asia, Europe, southern North America, southern South America, eastern Australia, and New Zealand. The highly suitable regions are primarily distributed in east of China, Japan, most of North America, southeastern South America, most of Europe, and southeastern edge of Australia. In future scenarios, the suitable habitats will undergo a significant contraction overall northward, and no moderately nor highly suitable habitats are predicted for this pest in other areas. Our findings indicate that a high risk of R. padi outbreaks currently exists for the highly suitable regions mentioned above, especially with wheat cultivation, but the capacity of R. padi to cause such outbreaks will weaken in the future. Climate-associated factors are significantly more important than land use, elevation and host-plant factors, and the BIO11 (mean temperature of the coldest quarter), in particular, predominated in shaping projections of R. padi's distribution. The predicted distribution pattern and key ecological factors affecting this pattern identified herein could provide important guidance for developing management policies targeting this economically important pest.

Predicting the Potential Global Distribution of the Plum Fruit Moth Grapholita funebrana Treitscheke Using Ensemble Models

The plum fruit moth, Grapholita funebrana Treitschke, is one of the most significant borer pests, often causing huge economic losses in fruit production. However, the potential distribution range of this economically important pest is still poorly understood. For this study, we simulated an ensemble species distribution model to predict the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of G. funebrana at a global scale. The results show that the suitable habitats for this moth, under current environmental conditions, are mainly distributed in Europe; East Asia, including China and Japan; Central Asia; and some parts of America. In future projections, the suitable habitats are predicted to generally expand northward, while the suitable area will remain unchanged overall. However, the area of highly suitable habitat will decrease to only 17.49% of that found under current conditions. None of the nine factors used were revealed to be predominant predictors in terms of contributing to the model, suggesting that the integrated effects of these variables shape G. funebrana's distribution. In this study, the distribution range that has been predicted, especially for the regions with a highly suitable habitat, poses a high risk of G. funebrana outbreaks, highlighting the urgency of pest management. Moreover, in the United States of America (USA) and Japan (for which G. funebrana distributions were not previously recorded), especially in areas highly suitable for this moth, monitoring and quarantine measures should be strengthened to prevent the colonization and further dispersal of this pest, as seen with its close relative G. molesta, which has become a cosmopolitan pest species, migrating from its native region (East Asia) to other continents, including the Americas.

A generalized risk assessment index for forecasting insect population under the effect of temperature

Life history traits have been studied under various environmental factors, but the ability to combine them into a simple function to assess pest response to climate is still lacking complete understanding. This study proposed a risk index derived by combining development, mortality, and fertility rates from a stage-structured dynamic mathematical model. The first part presents the theoretical framework behind the risk index. The second part of the study is concerned with the application of the index in two case studies of major economic pest: the brown planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens) and the spotted wing drosophila (Drosophila suzukii), pests of rice crops and soft fruits, respectively. The mathematical calculations provided a single function composed of the main thermal biodemographic rates. This function has a threshold value that determines the possibility of population increase as a function of temperature. The tests carried out on the two pest species showed the capability of the index to describe the range of favourable conditions. With this approach, we were able to identify areas where pests are tolerant to climatic conditions and to project them on a geospatial risk map. The theoretical background developed here provided a tool for understanding the biogeography of Nilaparvata lugens and Drosophila suzukii. It is flexible enough to deal with mathematically simple (N. lugens) and complex (D. Suzukii) case studies of crop insect pests. It produces biologically sound indices that behave like thermal performance curves. These theoretical results also provide a reasonable basis for addressing the challenge of pest management in the context of seasonal weather variations and climate change. This may help to improve monitoring and design management strategies to limit the spread of pests in invaded areas, as some non-invaded areas may be suitable for the species to develop.

Future Climate Change and Anthropogenic Disturbance Promote the Invasions of the World's Worst Invasive Insect Pests

Invasive insect pests adversely impact human welfare and global ecosystems. However, no studies have used a unified scheme to compare the range dynamics of the world's worst invasive insect pests. We investigated the future range shifts of 15 of the world's worst invasive insect pests. Although future range dynamics varied substantially among the 15 worst invasive insect pests, most exhibited large range expansions. Increases in the total habitat suitability occurred in more than ca. 85% of global terrestrial regions. The relative impacts of anthropogenic disturbance and climate variables on the range dynamics depended on the species and spatial scale. Aedes albopictus, Cinara cupressi, and Trogoderma granarium occurred four times in the top five largest potential ranges under four future climate scenarios. Anoplophora glabripennis, Aedes albopictus, and Co. formosanus were predicted to have the largest range expansions. An. glabripennis, Pl. manokwari, Co. formosanus, and So. invicta showed the largest range centroid shifts. More effective strategies will be required to prevent their range expansions. Although the strategies should be species-specific, mitigating anthropogenic disturbances and climate change will be essential to preventing future invasions. This study provides critical and novel insights for developing global strategies to combat the invasions of invasive insect pests in the future.

Ecological forecasts of insect range dynamics: a broad range of taxa includes winners and losers under future climate

Species distribution models are the primary tools to project future species' distributions, but this complex task is influenced by data limitations and evolving best practices. The majority of the 53 studies we examined utilized correlative models and did not follow current best practices for validating retrospective or future environmental data layers. Despite this, a summary of results is largely unsurprising: shifts toward cooler regions, but otherwise mixed dynamics emphasizing winners and losers. Harmful insects were more likely to show positive outcomes compared with beneficial species. Our restricted ability to consider mechanisms complicates interpretation of any single study. To improve this area of modeling, more classic field and lab studies to uncover basic ecology and physiology are crucial.

Predicting the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of the invasive tomato pinworm Phthorimaea absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae)

Phthorimaea absoluta (Meyrick) (= Tuta absoluta) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), is the most damaging insect pest threatening the production of tomato and other solanaceous vegetables in many countries. In this study, we predicted the risk of establishment and number of generations for P. absoluta in the current and future climatic conditions under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) of the years 2050 and 2070 using insect life cycle modelling (ILCYM) software. We used a temperature-dependent phenology model to project three risk indices viz., establishment risk index (ERI), generation index (GI), and activity index (AI) based on temperature data. The model projected large suitable areas for P. absoluta establishment in the Southern hemisphere under current and future climatic scenarios, compared to the Northern part. However, the risk of P. absoluta is expected to increase in Europe, USA, Southern Africa, and some parts of Asia in the future. Under current conditions, P. absoluta can complete between 6 and 16 generations per year in suitable areas. However, an increase in GI between 1 and 3 per year is projected for most parts of the world in the future, with an increase in AI between 1 and 4. Our results provide information on the risk of establishment of P. absoluta which could guide decision-makers to develop control strategies adapted for specific agro-ecological zones.

Computational biogeographic distribution of the fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda J.E. Smith) moth in eastern Africa

The fall armyworm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda J.E. Smith, has caused massive maize losses since its attack on the African continent in 2016, particularly in east Africa. In this study, we predicted the spatial distribution (established habitat) of FAW in five east African countries viz., Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Uganda, and Ethiopia. We used FAW occurrence observations for three years i.e., 2018, 2019, and 2020, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, and bioclimatic, land surface temperature (LST), solar radiation, wind speed, elevation, and landscape structure data (i.e., land use and land cover and maize harvested area) as explanatory variables. The explanatory variables were used as inputs into a variable selection experiment to select the least correlated ones that were then used to predict FAW establishment, i.e., suitability areas (very low suitability - very high suitability). The shared socio-economic pathways, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for the years 2030 and 2050 were used to predict the effect of future climate scenarios on FAW establishment. The results demonstrated that FAW establishment areas in eastern Africa were based on the model strength and true performance (area under the curve: AUC = 0.87), but not randomly. Moreover, ∼27% of eastern Africa is currently at risk of FAW establishment. Predicted FAW risk areas are expected to increase to ∼29% (using each of the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios) in the year 2030, and to ∼38% (using SSP2-4.5) and ∼35% (using SSP5-8.5) in the year 2050 climate scenarios. The LULC, particularly croplands and maize harvested area, together with temperature and precipitation bioclimatic variables provided the highest permutation importance in determining the occurrence and establishment of the pest in eastern Africa. Specifically, the study revealed that FAW was sensitive to isothermality (Bio3) rather than being sensitive to a single temperature value in the year. FAW preference ranges of temperature, precipitation, elevation, and maize harvested area were observed, implying the establishment of a once exotic pest in critical maize production regions in eastern Africa. It is recommended that future studies should thus embed the present study's modeling results into a dynamic platform that provides near-real-time predictions of FAW spatial occurrence and risk at the farm scale.

Temperature-Dependent Biology and Population Performances of the Coffee Berry Borer Hypothenemus hampei (Ferrari) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) on Artificial Diet

At different observation intervals of 1, 5, and 10 days during a trial period of 30 days, the mortality rates of Hypothenemus hampei were 100, 95, and 55%, and the fecundity rates were 0.55, 8.45, and 19.35 eggs/female, respectively. At temperatures of 18, 21, 24, and 27 °C, the development time of the immature stage of H. hampei was significantly shortened with increasing temperature. Furthermore, the lower developmental threshold (T₀) and thermal summation (K) of the immature stage were 8.91 °C and 485.44 degree-days, respectively. The greatest longevity of female and male adults reached 115.77 and 26.50 days, respectively, at 18 °C. The highest fecundity was 29.00 eggs/female at 24 °C. The population parameters of H. hampei were analyzed on the basis of the age-stage, two-sex life table theory. According to the data, the parameters were significantly affected by temperature. The highest net reproductive rate (R₀) was 13.32 eggs/individual at 24 °C. The highest intrinsic rate of increase (r) and finite rate of increase (λ) were calculated as 0.0401 and 1.0409 day^-1, respectively, at a temperature of 27 °C. The shortest mean generation time (T) was 51.34 days at 27 °C. Overall, we provide a discussion on comprehensive biological information regarding H. hampei, thus providing basic knowledge for further research on this pest.

Integrating temperature-dependent development and reproduction models for predicting population growth of the coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei Ferrari

The coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei Ferrari (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), is the most devastating insect pest of coffee worldwide. It feeds on the beans inside the berries leading to significant crop losses and unmarketable products. This study aims to model the impact of temperature on H. hampei fecundity and population growth parameters, as a contribution to the prediction of infestation risk. The fecundity was assessed on fresh coffee beans at six constant temperatures in the range 15-30°C, with RH 80 ± 5% and photoperiod 12:12 L:D. Nonlinear models were fitted to the relationship between fecundity and temperature using the ILCYM software. The best fecundity model was combined to development models obtained for immature stages in a previous study in order to simulate life table parameters at different constant temperatures. Females of H. hampei successfully oviposited in the temperature range 15-30°C, with the highest fecundity observed at 23°C (106.1 offspring per female). Polynomial function 8 model was the best fitted to the relationship between fecundity and temperature. With this model, the highest fecundity was estimated at 23°C, with 110 eggs per female. The simulated net reproductive rate (R₀) was maximal at 24°C, with 50.08 daughters per female, while the intrinsic rate of increase (r_m) was the highest at 26°C, with a value of 0.069. Our results will help understand H. hampei population dynamics and develop an ecologically sound management strategy based on a better assessment of infestation risk.

Potential distribution prediction of Amaranthus palmeri S. Watson in China under current and future climate scenarios

The vicious invasive alien plant Amaranthus palmeri poses a serious threat to ecological security and food security due to its strong adaptability, competitiveness, and herbicide resistance. Predicting its potential habitats under current and future climate change is critical for monitoring and early warning. In this study, we used two sets of climate data, namely, WorldClim1.4 and RCPs (the historical climate data of WorldClim version 1.4 and future climate data of RCPs), WorldClim2.1 and SSPs (the historical climate data of WorldClim version 2.1 and future climate data of SSPs), to analyze the dominant environmental variables affecting the habitat suitability and predict the potential distribution of A. palmeri to climate change in China based on the MaxEnt model. The results show that (i) Temperature has a greater impact on the distribution of A. palmeri. The relative contributions of temperature-related variables count to 70% or more, and the annual mean temperature (bio1) reached more than 40%. (ii) At present, the potentially suitable area is widely distributed in the central-east and parts of southwest China, and the high suitable area is focused on the North China Plain. The potential suitable area predicted by WorldClim1.4 and WorldClim2.1 both accounts for about 31% of China's total land area. (iii) Future climate change will expand the suitable habitats to high latitudes and altitudes. The overall suitable area maximum increased to 44.93% under SSPs and 38.91% under RCPs. We conclude that climate change would increase the risk of A. palmeri expanding to high latitudes and altitudes, the results have practical implications for the effective long-term management in response to the global warming of A. palmeri.

Modelling the current and future potential distribution of the bean bug Riptortus pedestris with increasingly serious damage to soybean

BACKGROUND

The bean bug, Riptortus pedestris, has received intense attention in recent years because of its involvement in increasing outbreaks of staygreen syndrome in soybean (Glycine max (L.)), often causing almost 100% loss of soybean yield in China. However, for this pest of great economic importance, potential current and future distribution patterns and their underlying driving factors remain unclear.

RESULTS

Maxent modelling under climate, elevation and land-use (including the distribution information of G. max) variables showed that the current potential distribution covered a vast geographic range, primarily including most parts of south, South East and east Asia. Under future environmental scenarios, suitable habitat expanded markedly. Areas that would become highly suitable for R. pedestris were primarily located in north-east China and west India. Five bioclimatic (BIO13, BIO08, BIO18, BIO02 and BIO07) and one land-use (C3 annual crops) predictors contributed approximately 95% to the modelling, and analyses of curve responses showed that to a certain extent, R. pedestris preferred relatively high temperature and precipitation. Our results indicate that a high risk of R. pedestris outbreaks is present in parts of Asia, especially in the soybean-growing regions of China, and this risk will continue in the future.

CONCLUSION

The predicted distribution pattern and key regulating factors identified herein could provide a vital reference for developing pest management policies and further alleviate the incidence of staygreen syndrome in soybean. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

Predicting the habitat suitability of the invasive white mango scale, Aulacaspis tubercularis; Newstead, 1906 (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) using bioclimatic variables

BACKGROUND

The white mango scale, Aulacaspis tubercularis (Hemiptera: Diaspididae), is an invasive pest that threatens the production of several crops of commercial value including mango. Though it is an important pest, little is known about its biology and ecology. Specifically, information on habitat suitability of A. tubercularis occurrence and potential distribution under climate change is largely unknown. In this study, we used four ecological niche models, namely maximum entropy, random forest, generalized additive models, and classification and regression trees to predict the habitat suitability of A. tubercularis under current and future [representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of the year 2070] climatic scenarios, using bioclimatic variables. Models' performance was evaluated using the true skill statistic (TSS), the area under the curve (AUC), correlation (COR), and the deviance.

RESULTS

All models sufficiently predicted the occurrence of A. tubercularis with high accuracy (AUC ≥ 0.93, TSS ≥ 0.81 and COR ≥ 0.77). The random forest algorithm had the highest accuracy among the four models (AUC = 0.99, TSS = 0.93, COR = 0.90, deviance = 0.26). Temperature seasonality (Bio4), mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9), and precipitation seasonality (Bio15) were the most important variables influencing A. tubercularis occurrence. Models' predictions showed that countries in east, south, and west Africa are highly suitable for A. tubercularis establishment under current conditions. Similarly, Mexico, Brazil, India, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia are also highly suitable for the pest to thrive. Under future conditions, the suitable areas might slightly decrease in many countries of sub-Saharan Africa under both RCPs. However, the range of expansion of A. tubercularis is projected to be higher in Australia, Brazil, Spain, Italy, and Portugal under the future climatic scenarios.

CONCLUSION

The results reported here will be useful for guiding decision-making, developing an effective management strategy, and serving as an early warning tool to prevent further spread toward new areas. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

Estimating the Demographic Parameters of Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) Using Temperature-Dependent Development Models and Their Validation under Fluctuating Temperature

Simple Summary

Tuta absoluta is an invasive insect pest that has spread widely and established itself in many countries since its first detection in Spain in 2006. The devastating moth originates in South America and attacks tomato and other solanaceous vegetables, leading to huge losses in yield and potential income particularly for small-scale farmers who often lack the resources and knowledge to manage the pest. In most cases, farmers have resorted to the indiscriminate application of broad-spectrum synthetic pesticides, which in most cases are not registered and are often used at high doses. This has resulted in the pest developing resistance to most major classes of pesticides. In addition, the non-selective use of toxic pesticides has resulted in negative effects on the health of users, consumers, and non-target organisms such as pollinators and natural enemies of insect pests. Various tactics aimed at controlling T. absoluta have been developed and are at different stages of adoption by farmers. To ensure that they are effective, sustainable, and friendly to both users and the environment, there is a need for a comprehensive understanding of the pest’s biology and ecology. To this effect, the present study developed models to predict intricate details of the pest’s development, survival, and reproduction using data generated in laboratory studies. Among other important findings, the study reports that temperatures between 20–25 °C are ideal for the development, survival, reproduction, and increase in the population of T. absoluta. These findings are vital in developing strategies in managing the pest, especially in light of global climate change.

Abstract

The tomato leafminer, Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) is an invasive pest that devastates the production of tomatoes and other solanaceous vegetables. Since its trans-Atlantic invasion in 2006, T. absoluta has spread and established in many countries across the Afro-Eurasian Supercontinent, causing huge yield losses. This study aimed to determine the relationship between temperature and the life history traits of T. absoluta and provide the thermal thresholds for development using life cycle modelling. Linear and non-linear models were fitted to life table data collected at five constant temperatures of 15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 °C, with Relative Humidity 70 ± 5% and photoperiod 12L:12D. Another experiment was conducted at fluctuating temperatures to validate the laboratory results. Tuta absoluta completed its life cycle at temperatures between 15 and 35 °C. The development time ranged between 4.0–11 days, 6.3–16.0 days, and 5.4–20.7 days for egg, larva, and pupa, respectively. The lowest thermal threshold was estimated at 8.10, 7.83, and 11.62 °C, respectively for egg, larva, and pupa. While the optimum temperature for T. absoluta immature stages survival and female fecundity were predicted at a temperature range of 21–23 °C. The intrinsic rate of increase (r_m), gross reproductive (GRR), and net reproductive (Ro) rates were significantly higher at temperatures between 20–25 °C. The model validation outcome showed similarities between observed and simulated values for development time, mortality rate, and life table parameters, attesting to the quality of the phenology model. Our results will help in predicting the effect of climate warming on the distribution and population dynamics of T. absoluta. Furthermore, the results could be used to develop management strategies adapted to different agroecological zones.

The leaf beetle Labidostomis lusitanica (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) as an Iberian pistachio pest: projecting risky areas

BACKGROUND

Pistachio (Pistacia vera L.) is a commercially important tree in the Mediterranean basin, where there is a considerable increase in cultivation, especially in Spain. Because of its recent introduction as a crop in the country (1980s), studies on the pests of pistachio in Spain are still rare. Here, we studied the leaf beetle Labidostomis lusitanica (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), which was observed on pistachio and might become a serious pest under the expanding Spanish pistachio fields. Because early detection of pests is extremely important to properly plan control strategies, we (i) updated the information on the distribution of the species through samplings and surveys, and (ii) modelled its potential distribution.

RESULTS

Currently, L. lusitanica occurs across the whole Iberian Peninsula, especially in its southern and eastern parts, with adults on flight roughly from late April to early June. Analysis of climatic niches showed that L. lusitanica prefers dry and hot areas, which are conditions found especially in the central-southern parts of the Iberian Peninsula. Such highly suitable areas for this pest overlap considerably with the suitable areas for pistachio cultivation. Surveys of pistachio growers weakly suggested a higher pest attack probability, but, unexpectedly, a lower perceived impact in very suitable areas for L. lusitanica, suggesting that other factors may shape its pest potential in a complex way.

CONCLUSION

In line with what has been observed for other Labidostomis species on pistachio in other Mediterranean countries, L. lusitanica has a good potential to harm pistachio production in Spain, claiming for further investigations and prevention strategies. © 2021 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Insect Herbivore Populations and Plant Damage Increase at Higher Elevations

Simple Summary

It is vitally important to understand the effects of climate change on insect pest populations and crop losses. Using elevation as a proxy for climate change, a field study was conducted in farmer’s fields in Nepal at various elevations in the Himalayan Mountains. At higher elevations, natural herbivore populations and plant damage from herbivory were significantly higher compared to their low-elevation counterparts. Temperature varied with elevation in the field and significantly affected both insect populations and plant damage. A geographical shift of insect pests towards higher elevations is predicated, so it is important to better understand how biotic and abiotic ecological factors and evolutionary processes will act together to affect ecosystem dynamics to reliably predict future pest problems.

Abstract

Elevation gradients are used as a proxy to simulate climate change effects. A field study was conducted along an elevational gradient in Nepal to understand the effects of abiotic conditions on agriculturally important insect herbivore populations (tobacco caterpillar: Spodoptera litura, tomato fruit worm: Helicoverpa armigera, and South American leaf miner, Tuta absoluta) and herbivory damage on tomatoes. Elevation ranged from 100 m to 1400 m above sea level, representing different climatic zones where tomatoes are grown. Contrary to our hypothesis, natural herbivore populations and herbivory damage significantly increased at higher elevations. Individual insect species responses were variable. Populations of S. litura and T. absoluta increased at higher elevations, whereas the H. armigera population was highest at the mid-elevational range. Temperature variations with elevation also affected insect catch numbers and the level of plant damage from herbivory. In the context of climate warming, our results demonstrate that the interactive effects of elevation and climatic factors (e.g., temperature) will play an important role in determining the changes in insect pest populations and the extent of crop losses.

Determination of temperature thresholds for the parasitoid Diachasmimorpha longicaudata (Hymenoptera: Braconidae), using life cycle simulation modeling: Implications for effective field releases in classical biological control of fruit flies

The braconid parasitoid Diachasmimorpha longicaudata (Ashmead) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) is one of the most important natural enemies in classical biological control programs against tephritid fruit flies worldwide. In light of the spread of the invasive fruit fly species, Bactrocera dorsalis in Africa and beyond, there is a need to implement classical biological control. The current study aimed to determine temperature thresholds for D. longicaudata reared on B. dorsalis, using life cycle simulation modeling to guide informed parasitoid releases in Africa. Simulated parameters included thermal requirements, population growth parameters at different temperature requirements, suitable areas for the establishment, and the number of generations per year under projected climatic conditions. The lower thermal threshold for the development was estimated at 10.0°C, with a thermal constant (k) of 333.3-degree days, while the maximum temperature threshold was estimated at 33.69°C. Fecundity was highest at 25°C, with 177.3 eggs per female. Temperature significantly affected the population growth parameters of D. longicaudata, and the maximum value of the intrinsic rate of increase (rm) was 0.145 at 27°C. Results indicate that D. longicaudata could successfully establish in tropical and sub-tropical regions under current and future climatic conditions. However, a slight change in the suitable areas is expected by the year 2050 due to a slight and gradual rise in temperature. Our findings provide important information for further release of this parasitoid in Africa as well as designing pest management strategies to limit the spread and reduce the impact of fruit flies sustainably.

Temperature-dependent development models describing the effects of temperature on the development of Spodoptera eridania

BACKGROUND

The southern armyworm, Spodoptera eridania, is a polyphagous species native to the American tropics that recently invaded Africa. Knowledge of the impact of temperature on its development and survival is important to understand the risks of this species spreading to other regions and to develop phenological models for pest management. This study evaluated the effects of temperature on the development and survival of S. eridania and selected mathematical models to simulate its development.

RESULTS

The southern armyworm completed its development between 15 and 32 °C, but eggs did not hatch at 34 °C. Lower survival and higher rates of deformities in adults were recorded at 15 and 32 °C. Among the ten mathematical models evaluated, Briere-2, Lactin-2 and Shi were considered suitable for describing the temperature-dependent development rate of S. eridania. The lower thermal threshold estimated by these models for the egg to adult life cycle ranged from 10.8 to 12.1 °C, whereas the upper threshold ranged between 33.9 and 35.0 °C.

CONCLUSIONS

The southern armyworm can develop within a wide range of temperatures, which partially explains its wide distribution in regions with different climatic conditions, and demonstrates its potential to occur in regions outside its native range. Our findings can be employed in the development of management strategies using the selected models to predict the occurrence of S. eridania in the field and determine the most effective times to implement control measures.

Climate Change Effects on Trophic Interactions of Bark Beetles in Inner Alpine Scots Pine Forests

Increased tree mortality has become a widespread phenomenon and is largely attributed to climate change. Little field research has addressed the complex interactions between trees, herbivores, and their natural enemies as affected by temperature. We recorded the densities of bark insects and their natural enemies emerging from felled trees in Scots pine forests at 17 study sites along 6 elevation gradients encompassing different temperature ranges in 3 regions in Switzerland and Italy. We additionally measured tree resin defense at different elevations. The density of aggressive bark beetles decreased with increasing temperatures while that of non-aggressive species did not respond to temperature. Contrasting patterns were also found for natural enemies, with the densities of most predatory taxa decreasing with increasing temperature whereas densities of parasitoids increased. Consequently, bark beetle mortality by predators decreased and that by parasitoids increased with temperature. Exudation of resin increased with temperature. As the number of resin ducts did not change with temperature, this is assumed a physical effect of reduced viscosity. Despite lower densities of aggressive bark beetles and improved tree resin flow under higher temperatures, the currently experienced drought-induced reduction in tree vigor is likely to increase tree mortality under the ongoing climate warming.

Modelling the effect of temperature on the biology and demographic parameters of the African coffee white stem borer, Monochamus leuconotus (Pascoe) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae)

The African coffee white stem borer Monochamus leuconotus (Pascoe) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) is a destructive insect pest of Arabica coffee trees in African highlands. Our study aims to provide information on the pest biology as influenced by temperature, determine thermal thresholds, and provide life table parameters for M. leuconotus reared in the laboratory. The life cycle of M. leuconotus was studied at seven constant temperatures in the range 15-35 °C, with 80 ± 5% RH and a photoperiod of L:D 12:12. Linear and nonlinear models were fitted to laboratory data to describe the impact of temperature on M. leuconotus development, mortality, fecundity and senescence. The complete life cycle was obtained between 18 and 30 °C, with the egg incubation period ranging 10.8-29.2 days. The development time was longest for the larva, with 194.2 days at 30 °C and 543.1 days at 18 °C. The minimum temperature threshold (T_min) was estimated at 10.7, 10.0 and 11.5 °C, for egg, larva and pupa, respectively. The maximum temperature threshold (T_max) was estimated at 37.4, 40.6 and 40.0 °C for egg, larva and pupa, respectively. The optimum temperature for immature stage survival was estimated between 23.0 and 23.9 °C. The highest fecundity was 97.8 eggs per female at 23 °C. Simulated life table parameters showed the highest net reproductive rate (R_o) of 11.8 daughters per female at 26 °C and maximal intrinsic rate of increase (r_m) between 26 and 28 °C, with a value of 0.008. Our results will help understanding M. leuconotus biology as influenced by temperature and may be used to predict the distribution and infestation risk under climate warming for this critical coffee pest.

Temperature-dependent development and survival of immature stages of the coffee berry borer Hypothenemus hampei (Coleoptera: Curculionidae)

Although the coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei (Ferrari) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) is the most destructive insect pest of coffee worldwide, there is much to learn about its thermal biology. This study aimed to develop temperature-based models for H. hampei development and to provide the thermal requirements of immature stages in the laboratory. Using a new observation method, larval development and survival were monitored daily on fresh Arabica coffee seeds, under seven constant temperatures in the range 15-35°C, with 80 ± 5% RH and 12:12 L:D photoperiod. Linear and non-linear functions were fitted to the development data plotted against temperature, using Insect Life Cycle Modelling software (ILCYM). Temperature significantly affected the development time of all immature stages. Egg incubation period ranged 4.6-16.8 days, under temperature between 30 and 15°C. No development occurred at 35°C and the larval stage did not develop to pupa at 15°C. The minimum temperature threshold (Tmin) estimated from linear regression was 10.5, 13.0, 15.0 and 13.0°C, for egg, larva, pupa and the total development from egg to adult, respectively. The maximum temperature threshold (Tmax) estimated from the Sharpe and DeMichele function was 32°C for egg to adult development. The thermal constant (k) was estimated at 78.1, 188.7, 36.5 and 312.5 degree days, for egg, larva, pupa and for egg to adult, respectively. Our results will help understand and predict the pest population dynamics and distribution in coffee plantations as impacted by temperature, and as such, will contribute to a more efficient management of the pest.