The per-patient costs of HIV services in South Africa: Systematic review and application in the South African HIV Investment Case

Costs of home-delivered antiretroviral therapy refills for persons living with HIV: evidence from a pilot randomized controlled trial in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) is needed across the lifetime to maintain viral suppression for people living with HIV. In South Africa, obstacles to reliable access to ART persist and are magnified in rural areas, where HIV services are also typically costlier to deliver. A recent pilot randomized study (the Deliver Health Study) found that home-delivered ART refills, provided at a low user fee, effectively overcame logistical barriers to access and improved clinical outcomes in rural South Africa. In the present costing study using the payer perspective, we conducted retrospective activity-based micro-costing of home-delivered ART within the Deliver Health Study and when provided at-scale (in a rural setting), and compared to facility-based costs using provincial expenditure data (covering both rural and urban settings). Within the context of the pilot Deliver Health Study which had an average of three deliveries per day for three days a week, home-delivered ART cost (in 2022 USD) $794 in the first year and $714 for subsequent years per client after subtracting client fees, compared with $167 per client in provincial clinic-based care. We estimated that home-delivered ART can reasonably be scaled up to 12 home deliveries per day for five days per week in the rural setting. When delivered at scale, home-delivered ART cost $267 in the first year and $183 for subsequent years per client. Average costs of home delivery further decreased when increasing the duration of refills from three-months to six- and 12-month scripts (from $183 to $177 and $135 per client, respectively). Personnel costs were the largest cost for home-delivered refills while ART drug costs were the largest cost of clinic-based refills. When provided at scale, home-delivered ART in a rural setting not only offers clinical benefits for a hard-to-reach population but is also comparable in cost to the provincial standard of care.

Preventing tuberculosis with community-based care in an HIV-endemic setting: a modelling analysis

INTRODUCTION

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) and tuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT) both prevent tuberculosis (TB) disease and deaths among people living with HIV. Differentiated care models, including community-based care, can increase the uptake of ART and TPT to prevent TB in settings with a high burden of HIV-associated TB, particularly among men.

METHODS

We developed a gender-stratified dynamic model of TB and HIV transmission and disease progression among 100,000 adults ages 15-59 in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We drew model parameters from a community-based ART initiation and resupply trial in sub-Saharan Africa (Delivery Optimization for Antiretroviral Therapy, DO ART) and other scientific literature. We simulated the impacts of community-based ART and TPT care programmes during 2018-2027, assuming that community-based ART and TPT care were scaled up to similar levels as in the DO ART trial (i.e. ART coverage increasing from 49% to 82% among men and from 69% to 83% among women) and sustained for 10 years. We projected the number of TB cases, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted relative to standard, clinic-based care. We calculated programme costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from the provider perspective.

RESULTS

If community-based ART care could be implemented with similar effectiveness to the DO ART trial, increased ART coverage could reduce TB incidence by 27.0% (range 21.3%-34.1%) and TB mortality by 34.6% (range 24.8%-42.2%) after 10 years. Increasing both ART and TPT uptake through community-based ART with TPT care could reduce TB incidence by 29.7% (range 23.9%-36.0%) and TB mortality by 36.0% (range 26.9%-43.8%). Community-based ART with TPT care reduced gender disparities in TB mortality rates, with a projected 54 more deaths annually among men than women (range 11-103) after 10 years of community-based care versus 109 (range 41-182) in standard care. Over 10 years, the mean cost per DALY averted by community-based ART with TPT care was $846 USD (range $709-$1012).

CONCLUSIONS

By substantially increasing coverage of ART and TPT, community-based care for people living with HIV could reduce TB incidence and mortality in settings with high burdens of HIV-associated TB and reduce TB gender disparities.

A decade of PrEP: the evolution of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis content and sentiments in South African print news media, 2012-2021

After nearly a decade of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) rollout in sub-Saharan Africa, there has been limited study of PrEP messaging in news media. We selected twenty South African newspapers with the highest circulation volumes to retrieve articles published in 2012-2021 mentioning PrEP (N = 249). Using inductive content analysis, we developed a structured codebook to characterise PrEP-related content and sentiments, as well as their evolution over time, in the South African press. Many articles espoused favourable attitudes towards PrEP (52%), but a sizeable fraction espoused unfavourable attitudes (11%). Relative to PrEP-favourable articles, PrEP-unfavourable articles were significantly more likely to emphasise the drawbacks/consequences of PrEP use, including adherence/persistence requirements (52% vs. 24%, p = .007), cost (48% vs. 11%, p < .001), and risk compensation (52% vs. 5%, p < .001). Nevertheless, the presence of these drawbacks/consequences in print media largely declined over time. Key populations (e.g. adolescents, female sex workers) were frequently mentioned potential PrEP candidates. Despite message variations over time, prevention effectiveness and adherence/persistence requirements were the most widely cited PrEP benefits and drawbacks, respectively. Study findings demonstrate the dynamic nature of PrEP coverage in the South African press, likely in response to PrEP scale-up and real-world PrEP implementation during the study period.

Cost-effectiveness of single-visit cervical cancer screening in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: a model-based analysis accounting for the HIV epidemic

Introduction

Women living with human immunodeficiency virus (WLHIV) face elevated risks of human papillomavirus (HPV) acquisition and cervical cancer (CC). Coverage of CC screening and treatment remains low in low-and-middle-income settings, reflecting resource challenges and loss to follow-up with current strategies. We estimated the health and economic impact of alternative scalable CC screening strategies in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, a region with high burden of CC and HIV.

Methods

We parameterized a dynamic compartmental model of HPV and HIV transmission and CC natural history to KwaZulu-Natal. Over 100 years, we simulated the status quo of a multi-visit screening and treatment strategy with cytology and colposcopy triage (South African standard of care) and six single-visit comparator scenarios with varying: 1) screening strategy (HPV DNA testing alone, with genotyping, or with automated visual evaluation triage, a new high-performance technology), 2) screening frequency (once-per-lifetime for all women, or repeated every 5 years for WLHIV and twice for women without HIV), and 3) loss to follow-up for treatment. Using the Ministry of Health perspective, we estimated costs associated with HPV vaccination, screening, and pre-cancer, CC, and HIV treatment. We quantified CC cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted for each scenario. We discounted costs (2022 US dollars) and outcomes at 3% annually and calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs).

Results

We projected 69,294 new CC cases and 43,950 CC-related deaths in the status quo scenario. HPV DNA testing achieved the greatest improvement in health outcomes, averting 9.4% of cases and 9.0% of deaths with one-time screening and 37.1% and 35.1%, respectively, with repeat screening. Compared to the cost of the status quo ($12.79 billion), repeat screening using HPV DNA genotyping had the greatest increase in costs. Repeat screening with HPV DNA testing was the most effective strategy below the willingness to pay threshold (ICER: $3,194/DALY averted). One-time screening with HPV DNA testing was also an efficient strategy (ICER: $1,398/DALY averted).

Conclusions

Repeat single-visit screening with HPV DNA testing was the optimal strategy simulated. Single-visit strategies with increased frequency for WLHIV may be cost-effective in KwaZulu-Natal and similar settings with high HIV and HPV prevalence.

Cost savings in male circumcision post-operative care using two-way text-based follow-up in rural and urban South Africa

INTRODUCTION

Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) clients are required to attend multiple post-operative follow-up visits in South Africa. However, with demonstrated VMMC safety, stretched clinic staff in SA may conduct more than 400,000 unnecessary reviews for males without complications, annually. Embedded into a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to test safety of two-way, text-based (2wT) follow-up as compared to routine in-person visits among adult clients, the objective of this study was to compare 2wT and routine post-VMMC care costs in rural and urban South African settings.

METHODS

Activity-based costing (ABC) estimated the costs of post-VMMC care, including counselling, follow-ups, and tracing in $US dollars. Transportation for VMMC and follow-up was provided for rural clients in outreach settings but not for urban clients in static sites. Data were collected from National Department of Health VMMC forms, RCT databases, and time-and-motion surveys. Sensitivity analysis presents different follow-up scenarios. We hypothesized that 2wT would save per-client costs overall, with higher savings in rural settings.

RESULTS

VMMC program costs were estimated from 1,084 RCT clients: 537 in routine care and 547 in 2wT. On average, 2wT saved $3.56 per client as compared to routine care. By location, 2wT saved $7.73 per rural client and increased urban costs by $0.59 per client. 2wT would save $2.16 and $7.02 in follow-up program costs if men attended one or two post-VMMC visits, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Quality 2wT follow-up care reduces overall post-VMMC care costs by supporting most men to heal at home while triaging clients with potential complications to timely, in-person care. 2wT saves more in rural areas where 2wT offsets transportation costs. Minimal additional 2wT costs in urban areas reflect high care quality and client engagement, a worthy investment for improved VMMC service delivery. 2wT scale-up in South Africa could significantly reduce overall VMMC costs while maintaining service quality.

Cost savings in male circumcision post-operative care using two-way text-based follow-up in rural and urban South Africa

Introduction

Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) clients are required to attend multiple post-operative follow-up visits in South Africa. However, with demonstrated VMMC safety, stretched clinic staff in SA may conduct more than 400,000 unnecessary reviews for males without complications, annually. Embedded into a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to test safety of two-way, text-based (2wT) follow-up as compared to routine in-person visits among adult clients, the objective of this study was to compare 2wT and routine post-VMMC care costs in rural and urban South African settings.

Methods

Activity-based costing (ABC) estimated the costs of post-VMMC care, including counselling, follow-ups, and tracing in $US dollars. Transportation for VMMC and follow-up was provided for rural clients in outreach settings but not for urban clients in static sites. Data were collected from National Department of Health VMMC forms, RCT databases, and time-and-motion surveys. Sensitivity analysis presents different follow-up scenarios. We hypothesized that 2wT would save per-client costs overall, with higher savings in rural settings.

Results

VMMC program costs were estimated from 1,084 RCT clients: 537 in routine care and 547 in 2wT. On average, 2wT saved $3.56 per client as compared to routine care. By location, 2wT saved $7.73 per rural client and increased urban costs by $0.59 per client. 2wT would save $2.16 and $7.02 in follow-up program costs if men attended one or two post-VMMC visits, respectively.

Conclusion

Quality 2wT follow-up care reduces overall post-VMMC care costs by supporting most men to heal at home while triaging clients with potential complications to timely, in-person care. 2wT saves more in rural areas where 2wT offsets transportation costs. Minimal additional 2wT costs in urban areas reflect high care quality and client engagement, a worthy investment for improved VMMC service delivery. 2wT scale-up in South Africa could significantly reduce overall VMMC costs while maintaining service quality.

Population health impact, cost-effectiveness, and affordability of community-based HIV treatment and monitoring in South Africa: A health economics modelling study

Community-based delivery and monitoring of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV has the potential to increase viral suppression for individual- and population-level health benefits. However, the cost-effectiveness and budget impact are needed for public health policy. We used a mathematical model of HIV transmission in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, to estimate population prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from 2020 to 2060 for two scenarios: 1) standard clinic-based HIV care and 2) five-yearly home testing campaigns with community ART for people not reached by clinic-based care. We parameterised model scenarios using observed community-based ART efficacy. Using a health system perspective, we evaluated incremental cost-effectiveness and net health benefits using a threshold of $750/DALY averted. In a sensitivity analysis, we varied the discount rate; time horizon; costs for clinic and community ART, hospitalisation, and testing; and the proportion of the population receiving community ART. Uncertainty ranges (URs) were estimated across 25 best-fitting parameter sets. By 2060, community ART following home testing averted 27.9% (UR: 24.3-31.5) of incident HIV infections, 27.8% (26.8-28.8) of HIV-related deaths, and 18.7% (17.9-19.7) of DALYs compared to standard of care. Adolescent girls and young women aged 15-24 years experienced the greatest reduction in incident HIV (30.7%, 27.1-34.7). In the first five years (2020-2024), community ART required an additional $44.9 million (35.8-50.1) annually, representing 14.3% (11.4-16.0) of the annual HIV budget. The cost per DALY averted was $102 (85-117) for community ART compared with standard of care. Providing six-monthly refills instead of quarterly refills further increased cost-effectiveness to $78.5 per DALY averted (62.9-92.8). Cost-effectiveness was robust to sensitivity analyses. In a high-prevalence setting, scale-up of decentralised ART dispensing and monitoring can provide large population health benefits and is cost-effective in preventing death and disability due to HIV.

The long-term impact and value of curative therapy for HIV: a modelling analysis

INTRODUCTION

Curative therapies (CTx) to achieve durable remission of HIV disease without the need for antiretroviral therapy (ART) are currently being explored. Our objective was to model the long-term health and cost outcomes of HIV in various countries, the impact of future CTx on those outcomes and the country-specific value-based prices (VBPs) of CTx.

METHODS

We developed a decision-analytic model to estimate the future health economic impacts of a hypothetical CTx for HIV in countries with pre-existing access to ART (CTx+ART), compared to ART alone. We modelled populations in seven low-and-middle-income countries and five high-income countries, accounting for localized ART and other HIV-related costs, and calibrating variables for HIV epidemiology and ART uptake to reproduce historical HIV outcomes before projecting future outcomes to year 2100. Health was quantified using disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Base case, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios were modelled for CTx+ART and ART alone. Based on long-term outcomes and each country's estimated health opportunity cost, we calculated the country-specific VBP of CTx.

RESULTS

The introduction of a hypothetical CTx lowered HIV prevalence and prevented future infections over time, which increased life-years, reduced the number of individuals on ART, reduced AIDS-related deaths, and ultimately led to fewer DALYs versus ART-alone. Our base case estimates for the VBP of CTx ranged from $5400 (Kenya) up to $812,300 (United States). Within each country, the VBP was driven to be greater primarily by lower ART coverage, lower HIV incidence and prevalence, and higher CTx cure probability. The VBP estimates were found to be greater in countries where HIV prevalence was higher, ART coverage was lower and the health opportunity cost was greater.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results quantify the VBP for future curative CTx that may apply in different countries and under different circumstances. With greater CTx cure probability, durability and scale up, CTx commands a higher VBP, while improvements in ART coverage may mitigate its value. Our framework can be utilized for estimating this cost given a wide range of scenarios related to the attributes of a given CTx as well as various parameters of the HIV epidemic within a given country.

Preventing tuberculosis with community-based care in an HIV-endemic setting: a modeling analysis

Introduction

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) and TB preventive treatment (TPT) both prevent tuberculosis (TB) disease and deaths among people living with HIV. Differentiated care models, including community-based care, can increase uptake of ART and TPT to prevent TB in settings with a high burden of HIV-associated TB, particularly among men.

Methods

We developed a gender-stratified dynamic model of TB and HIV transmission and disease progression among 100,000 adults ages 15-59 in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We drew model parameters from a community-based ART initiation and resupply trial in sub-Saharan Africa (Delivery Optimization for Antiretroviral Therapy, DO ART) and other scientific literature. We simulated the impacts of community-based ART and TPT care programs during 2018-2027, assuming that community-based ART and TPT care were scaled up to similar levels as in the DO ART trial (i.e., ART coverage increasing from 49% to 82% among men and from 69% to 83% among women) and sustained for ten years. We projected the number of TB cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted relative to standard, clinic-based care. We calculated program costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from the provider perspective.

Results

If community-based ART care could be implemented with similar effectiveness to the DO ART trial, increased ART coverage could reduce TB incidence by 27.0% (range 21.3% - 34.1%) and TB mortality by 36.0% (range 26.9% - 43.8%) after ten years. Increasing both ART and TPT uptake through community-based ART with TPT care could reduce TB incidence by 29.7% (range 23.9% - 36.0%) and TB mortality by 36.0% (range 26.9% - 43.8%). Community-based ART with TPT care reduced gender disparities in TB mortality rates by reducing TB mortality among men by a projected 39.8% (range 32.2% - 46.3%) and by 30.9% (range 25.3% - 36.5%) among women. Over ten years, the mean cost per DALY averted by community-based ART with TPT care was $846 USD (range $709 - $1,012).

Conclusions

By substantially increasing coverage of ART and TPT, community-based care for people living with HIV could reduce TB incidence and mortality in settings with high burdens of HIV-associated TB and reduce TB gender disparities.

Costs and outcomes of routine HIV oral pre-exposure prophylaxis implementation across different service delivery models and key populations in South Africa

Background

Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a highly efficacious biomedical HIV prevention tool, yet despite being recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) since 2015, uptake and persistence remain limited in much of the world, including sub Saharan Africa (SSA). There is a dearth of evidence-based interventions to improve PrEP uptake and persistence in SSA, and the full costs of PrEP programs implemented in routine care settings remain largely unknown. This study aimed to evaluate the cost of delivery of daily oral PrEP, and associated outcomes, to different key and priority populations across different service delivery models (SDMs) in South Africa.

Methods

We conducted bottom-up micro-costing of PrEP service delivery from the provider perspective within twelve urban SDMs providing routine PrEP services to various key and propriety populations in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal provinces in South Africa. The SDMs included in-facility and outreach models that focused on men who have sex with men (MSM), female sex workers (FSW) and adolescent girls and young women (AGYW). We identified all within- and above-facility activities supporting PrEP delivery, obtained input costs from program budgets, expenditure records and staff interviews, and determined individual resource usage between February 2019 and February 2020 through retrospective medical record review. Our primary outcome was PrEP coverage at six months (defined as having sufficient PrEP drug dispensed at the last visit to be covered at six months post PrEP-initiation). A subset (N=633) of all enrolled subjects had the potential for 12 months of follow-up and were included in a 12-month outcome analysis. We report the cost per client initiated on PrEP in 2021 United States Dollars (USD).

Findings

We collected medical record data from 1,281 people who initiated PrEP at 12 SDMs between February and August 2019 and had at least six months of potential follow-up. The average number of visits was 2.3 for in-facility models and 1.5 for outreach models and 3,086 months of PrEP was dispensed. PrEP coverage at six months varied greatly across SDMs, from 41.8% at one MSM-focused fixed clinic to 0% in an MSM-focused outreach model. In general, in-facility programs had higher six-month coverage than outreach programs. Across all SDMs with PrEP clients with potential for 12 months of follow-up (n=633), PrEP coverage at 12 months was 13.6%, with variability between SDMs. The average six-month cost per client initiated on PrEP ranged from $29 to $590, with higher average costs generally observed for the in-facility programs ($152 in-facility versus $84 for outreach). The average monthly cost per PrEP client who had six-month PrEP coverage ranged from $18 to $160 dependent on SDM.

Interpretation

This study is an important addition to the PrEP outcome and cost literature in the SSA region. Results show that costs and outcomes vary considerably across different SDMs and populations in real world PrEP programs and provide crucial information for further scale-up of the oral PrEP program in South Africa and the greater SSA region.

Cost and outcomes of routine HIV care and treatment: public and private service delivery models covering low-income earners in South Africa

BACKGROUND

While South Africa's national HIV program is the largest in the world, it has yet to reach the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets. To reach these targets, the expansion of the HIV treatment program may be accelerated through the use private sector delivery models. This study identified three innovative non-governmental primary health care models (private sector) providing HIV treatment, as well as two government primary health clinics (public sector) that served similar populations. We estimated the resources used, and costs and outcomes of HIV treatment across these models to provide inputs to inform decisions around how these services might best be provided through National Health Insurance (NHI).

METHODS

A review of potential private sector models for HIV treatment in a primary health care setting was conducted. Models actively offering HIV treatment (i.e. in 2019) were considered for inclusion in the evaluation, subject to data availability and location. These models were augmented by government primary health clinics offering HIV services in similar locations. We conducted a cost-outcomes analysis by collecting patient-level resource usage and treatment outcomes through retrospective medical record reviews and a bottom-up micro-costing from the provider perspective (public or private payer). Patient outcomes were based on whether the patient was still in care at the end of the follow up period and viral load (VL) status, to create the following outcome categories: in care and responding (VL suppressed), in care and not responding (VL unsuppressed), in care (VL unknown) and not in care (LTFU or deceased). Data collection was conducted in 2019 and reflects services provided during the 4 years prior to that (2016-2019).

RESULTS

Three hundred seventy-six patients were included across the five HIV treatment models. Across the three private sector models there were differences in the costs and outcomes of HIV treatment delivery, two of the models had results similar to the public sector primary health clinics. The nurse-led model appears to have a cost-outcome profile distinct from the others.

CONCLUSION

The results show that across the private sector models studied the costs and outcomes of HIV treatment delivery vary, yet there were models that provided costs and outcomes similar to those found with public sector delivery. Offering HIV treatment under NHI through private delivery models could therefore be an option to increase access beyond the current public sector capacity.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of the national scale-up of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis among female sex workers in South Africa: a modelling analysis

INTRODUCTION

In 2016, South Africa (SA) initiated a national programme to scale-up pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among female sex workers (FSWs), with ∼20,000 PrEP initiations among FSWs (∼14% of FSW) by 2020. We evaluated the impact and cost-effectiveness of this programme, including future scale-up scenarios and the potential detrimental impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

A compartmental HIV transmission model for SA was adapted to include PrEP. Using estimates on self-reported PrEP adherence from a national study of FSW (67.7%) and the Treatment and Prevention for FSWs (TAPS) PrEP demonstration study in SA (80.8%), we down-adjusted TAPS estimates for the proportion of FSWs with detectable drug levels (adjusted range: 38.0-70.4%). The model stratified FSW by low (undetectable drug; 0% efficacy) and high adherence (detectable drug; 79.9%; 95% CI: 67.2-87.6% efficacy). FSWs can transition between adherence levels, with lower loss-to-follow-up among highly adherent FSWs (aHR: 0.58; 95% CI: 0.40-0.85; TAPS data). The model was calibrated to monthly data on the national scale-up of PrEP among FSWs over 2016-2020, including reductions in PrEP initiations during 2020. The model projected the impact of the current programme (2016-2020) and the future impact (2021-2040) at current coverage or if initiation and/or retention are doubled. Using published cost data, we assessed the cost-effectiveness (healthcare provider perspective; 3% discount rate; time horizon 2016-2040) of the current PrEP provision.

RESULTS

Calibrated to national data, model projections suggest that 2.1% of HIV-negative FSWs were currently on PrEP in 2020, with PrEP preventing 0.45% (95% credibility interval, 0.35-0.57%) of HIV infections among FSWs over 2016-2020 or 605 (444-840) infections overall. Reductions in PrEP initiations in 2020 possibly reduced infections averted by 18.57% (13.99-23.29). PrEP is cost-saving, with $1.42 (1.03-1.99) of ART costs saved per dollar spent on PrEP. Going forward, existing coverage of PrEP will avert 5,635 (3,572-9,036) infections by 2040. However, if PrEP initiation and retention doubles, then PrEP coverage increases to 9.9% (8.7-11.6%) and impact increases 4.3 times with 24,114 (15,308-38,107) infections averted by 2040.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings advocate for the expansion of PrEP to FSWs throughout SA to maximize its impact. This should include strategies to optimize retention and should target women in contact with FSW services.

Inpatient Care Costs of COVID-19 in South Africa's Public Healthcare System

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had a devastating impact globally, with severe health and economic consequences. To prepare health systems to deal with the pandemic, epidemiological and cost projection models are required to inform budgets and efficient allocation of resources. This study estimates daily inpatient care costs of COVID-19 in South Africa, an important input into cost projection and economic evaluation models.

METHODS

We adopted a micro-costing approach, which involved the identification, measurement and valuation of resources used in the clinical management of COVID-19. We considered only direct medical costs for an episode of hospitalisation from the South African public health system perspective. Resource quantities and unit costs were obtained from various sources. Inpatient costs per patient day was estimated for consumables, capital equipment and human resources for three levels of inpatient care - general wards, high care wards and intensive care units (ICUs).

RESULTS

Average daily costs per patient increased with the level of care. The highest average daily cost was estimated for ICU admissions - 271 USD to 306 USD (financial costs) and ~800 USD to 830 USD (economic costs, excluding facility fee) depending on the need for invasive vs. non-invasive ventilation (NIV). Conversely, the lowest cost was estimated for general ward-based care - 62 USD to 79 USD (financial costs) and 119 USD to 278 USD (economic costs, excluding facility fees) depending on the need for supplemental oxygen. In high care wards, total cost was estimated at 156 USD, financial costs and 277 USD, economic costs (excluding facility fees). Probabilistic sensitivity analyses suggest our costs estimates are robust to uncertainty in cost inputs.

CONCLUSION

Our estimates of inpatient costs are useful for informing budgeting and planning processes and cost-effectiveness analysis in the South African context. However, these estimates can be adapted to inform policy decisions in other context.

HIV-1 therapeutic vaccines in clinical development to intensify or replace antiretroviral therapy: the promising results of the Tat vaccine

INTRODUCTION

Upon the introduction of the combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), HIV infection has become a chronic disease. However, cART is unable to eradicate the virus and fails to restore the CD4 counts in about 30% of the treated individuals. Furthermore, treatment is life-long, and it does not protect from morbidities typically observed in the elderly. Therapeutic vaccines represent the most cost-effective intervention to intensify or replace cART.

AREAS COVERED

Here, we briefly discuss the obstacles to the development and evaluation of the efficacy of therapeutic vaccines and review recent approaches evaluated in clinical trials.

EXPERT OPINION

Although vaccines were generally safe and immunogenic, evidence of efficacy was negligible or marginal in most trials. A notable exception is the therapeutic Tat vaccine approach showing promising results of cART intensification, with CD4 T-cell increase and proviral load reduction beyond those afforded by cART alone. Rationale and evidence in support of choosing Tat as the vaccine target are thoroughly discussed.

Costs of seasonal influenza vaccination in South Africa

Background

Influenza accounts for a substantial number of deaths and hospitalisations annually in South Africa. To address this disease burden, the South African National Department of Health introduced a trivalent inactivated influenza vaccination programme in 2010.

Methods

We adapted and populated the WHO Seasonal Influenza Immunization Costing Tool (WHO SIICT) with country‐specific data to estimate the cost of the influenza vaccination programme in South Africa. Data were obtained through key‐informant interviews at different levels of the health system and through a review of existing secondary data sources. Costs were estimated from a public provider perspective and expressed in 2018 prices. We conducted scenario analyses to assess the impact of different levels of programme expansion and the use of quadrivalent vaccines on total programme costs.

Results

Total financial and economic costs were estimated at approximately USD 2.93 million and USD 7.91 million, respectively, while financial and economic cost per person immunised was estimated at USD 3.29 and USD 8.88, respectively. Expanding the programme by 5% and 10% increased economic cost per person immunised to USD 9.36 and USD 9.52 in the two scenarios, respectively. Finally, replacing trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) with quadrivalent vaccine increased financial and economic costs to USD 4.89 and USD 10.48 per person immunised, respectively.

Conclusion

We adapted the WHO SIICT and provide estimates of the total costs of the seasonal influenza vaccination programme in South Africa. These estimates provide a basis for planning future programme expansion and may serve as inputs for cost‐effectiveness analyses of seasonal influenza vaccination programmes.

The Costs of Creatinine Testing in the Context of a HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Demonstration Project in Eswatini

HIV treatment and prevention as well as other chronic disease care can require regular kidney function assessment based on a creatinine test. To assess the costs of creatinine testing in a public health care system, we conducted activity-based costing during a HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) demonstration project in the Hhohho region of Eswatini. Resource use was assessed by a laboratory technician and valued with government procurement prices, public sector salaries, and own cost estimates. Obtaining a blood sample in a clinic and performing a creatinine test in a high-throughput referral laboratory (> 660,000 blood tests, including > 120,000 creatinine tests, in 2018) were estimated to have cost, on average, $1.98 in 2018. Per test, $1.95 were variable costs ($1.38 personnel, ¢39 consumables, and ¢18 other costs) and ¢2.6 were allocated semi-fixed costs (¢1.1 laboratory equipment, ¢0.85 other, ¢0.45 consumables, and ¢1.3 personnel costs). Simulating different utilization of the laboratory indicated that semi-fixed costs of the laboratory (e.g., equipment purchase or daily calibration of the chemistry analyzer) contributed less than variable costs (e.g., per-test personnel time and test reagents) to the average creatinine test cost when certain minimum test numbers can be maintained. Our findings suggest, first, lower creatinine testing costs than previously used in cost and cost-effectiveness analyses of HIV services and, second, that investment in laboratory equipment imposed a relatively small additional cost on each performed test in the high-throughput referral laboratory.

Incremental costs of integrated PrEP provision and effective use counselling in community‐based platforms for adolescent girls and young women in South Africa: an observational study

Introduction

Adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) are a priority population for pre‐exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), a highly effective HIV prevention method. However, effective PrEP use among AGYW has been low. Interventions to support PrEP effective use may improve pill‐taking. Affordability of PrEP programs depends on their cost. We, therefore, evaluated the cost of community‐based PrEP with effective use counselling.

Methods

Cost data from a randomized controlled trial were used to evaluate the cost of PrEP provision with effective use counselling offered to AGYW through community‐based HIV testing platforms between November 2018 and November 2019. AGYW were randomized to receive (1) group‐based community health club effective use counselling, (2) individualized effective use counselling or (3) community‐based PrEP dispensary. Task shifting of effective use counselling from nurses to trained lay counsellors was implemented in groups 1 and 2. Personnel costs were estimated from time‐and‐motion observations and staff interviews. Expenditure and ingredients‐based approaches were used to estimate costs for medical and non‐medical supplies.

Results

In total, 603 AGYW initiated PrEP and accrued a total of 1280 months on PrEP. Average cost per person‐month on PrEP with group‐based community health club, individualized effective use counselling and community‐based PrEP dispensary under the Department of Health scenario were similar and high (USD $55.32, $55.65 and $55.46, respectively) due to low PrEP client volume observed in the clinical trial. Increasing client volume (scaled Department of Health scenario) reduced cost per‐person month estimates to USD $15.48, $26.40 and $13.99, respectively.

Conclusions

As designed, individualized effective use counselling increased the cost of standard‐of‐care PrEP delivery by 89%, group‐based community health effective use counselling increased the cost of standard‐of‐care PrEP delivery by 11%. These estimates can inform cost‐effectiveness and budget impact analysis for PrEP provision with effective use counselling services.

The early-stage comprehensive costs of routine PrEP implementation and scale-up in Zambia

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an effective HIV prevention option, but cost-effectiveness is sensitive to implementation and program costs. Studies indicate that, in addition to direct delivery cost, PrEP provision requires substantial demand creation and client support to encourage PrEP initiation and persistence. We estimated the cost of providing PrEP in Zambia through different PrEP delivery models. Taking a guidelines-based approach for visits, labs and drugs, we estimated the annual cost of providing PrEP per client for five delivery models: one focused on key populations (men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) and female sex workers (FSW), one on adolescent girls and young women (AGYW), and three integrated programs (operated within HIV counselling and testing services at primary healthcare centres). Program start-up and support costs were based on program expenditure data and number of PrEP sites and clients in 2018. PrEP clinic visit costs were based on micro-costing at two PrEP delivery sites (2018 USD). Costs are presented in 2018 prices and inflated to 2021 prices. The annual cost/PrEP client varied by service delivery model, from $394 (AGYW) to $655 (integrated model). Cost differences were driven largely by client volume, which impacted the relative costs of program support and technical assistance assigned to each PrEP client. Direct service delivery costs ranged narrowly from $205-212/PrEP-client and were a key component in the cost of PrEP, representing 35-65% of total costs. The results show that, even when integrated into full service delivery models, accessing vulnerable, marginalised populations at substantial risk of HIV infection is likely to cost more than previously estimated due to the programmatic costs involved in community sensitization and client support. Improved data on individual client resource usage and outcomes is required to get a better understanding of the true resource utilization, expected outcomes and annual costs of different PrEP service delivery programs in Zambia.

Cost-effectiveness of bedaquiline, pretomanid and linezolid for treatment of extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis in South Africa, Georgia and the Philippines

OBJECTIVES

Patients with highly resistant tuberculosis have few treatment options. Bedaquiline, pretomanid and linezolid regimen (BPaL) is a new regimen shown to have favourable outcomes after six months. We present an economic evaluation of introducing BPaL against the extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB) standard of care in three epidemiological settings.

DESIGN

Cost-effectiveness analysis using Markov cohort model.

SETTING

South Africa, Georgia and the Philippines.

PARTICIPANTS

XDR-TB and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) failure and treatment intolerant patients.

INTERVENTIONS

BPaL regimen. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: (1) Incremental cost per disability-adjusted life years averted by using BPaL against standard of care at the Global Drug Facility list price. (2) The potential maximum price at which the BPaL regimen could become cost neutral.

RESULTS

BPaL for XDR-TB is likely to be cost saving in all study settings when pretomanid is priced at the Global Drug Facility list price. The magnitude of these savings depends on the prevalence of XDR-TB in the country and can amount, over 5 years, to approximately US$ 3 million in South Africa, US$ 200 000 and US$ 60 000 in Georgia and the Philippines, respectively. In South Africa, related future costs of antiretroviral treatment (ART) due to survival of more patients following treatment with BPaL reduced the magnitude of expected savings to approximately US$ 1 million. Overall, when BPaL is introduced to a wider population, including MDR-TB treatment failure and treatment intolerant, we observe increased savings and clinical benefits. The potential threshold price at which the probability of the introduction of BPaL becoming cost neutral begins to increase is higher in Georgia and the Philippines (US$ 3650 and US$ 3800, respectively) compared with South Africa (US$ 500) including ART costs.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results estimate that BPaL can be a cost-saving addition to the local TB programmes in varied programmatic settings.

A costing analysis of B-GAP: index-linked HIV testing for children and adolescents in Zimbabwe

Background

By testing children and adolescents of HIV positive caretakers, index-linked HIV testing, a targeted HIV testing strategy, has the ability to identify high risk children and adolescents earlier and more efficiently, compared to blanket testing. We evaluated the incremental cost of integrating index-linked HIV testing via three modalities into HIV services in Zimbabwe.

Methods

A mixture of bottom-up and top-down costing was employed to estimate the provider cost per test and per HIV diagnosis for 2–18 year olds, through standard of care testing, and the incremental cost of index-linked HIV testing via three modalities: facility-based testing, home-based testing by a healthcare worker, and testing at home by the caregiver using an oral mucosal transudate test. In addition to interviews, direct observation and study process data, facility registries were abstracted to extract outcome data and resource use. Costs were converted to 2019 constant US$.

Results

The average cost per standard of care test in urban facilities was US$5.91 and US$7.15 at the rural facility. Incremental cost of an index-linked HIV test was driven by the uptake and number of participants tested. The lowest cost approach in the urban setting was home-based testing (US$6.69) and facility-based testing at the rural clinic (US$5.36). Testing by caregivers was almost always the most expensive option (rural US$62.49, urban US$17.49).

Conclusions

This is the first costing analysis of index-linked HIV testing strategies. Unit costs varied across sites and with uptake. When scaling up, alternative testing solutions that increase efficiency such as index-linked HIV testing of the entire household, as opposed to solely targeting children/adolescents, need to be explored.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12913-021-07070-3.

The cost effectiveness and optimal configuration of HIV self-test distribution in South Africa: a model analysis

BACKGROUND

HIV self-testing (HIVST) has been shown to be acceptable, feasible and effective in increasing HIV testing uptake. Novel testing strategies are critical to achieving the UNAIDS target of 95% HIV-positive diagnosis by 2025 in South Africa and globally.

METHODS

We modelled the impact of six HIVST kit distribution modalities (community fixed-point, taxi ranks, workplace, partners of primary healthcare (PHC) antiretroviral therapy (ART) patients), partners of pregnant women, primary PHC distribution) in South Africa over 20 years (2020-2039), using data collected alongside the Self-Testing AfRica Initiative. We modelled two annual distribution scenarios: (A) 1 million HIVST kits (current) or (B) up to 6.7 million kits. Incremental economic costs (2019 US$) were estimated from the provider perspective; assumptions on uptake and screening positivity were based on surveys of a subset of kit recipients and modelled using the Thembisa model. Cost-effectiveness of each distribution modality compared with the status-quo distribution configuration was estimated as cost per life year saved (estimated from life years lost due to AIDS) and optimised using a fractional factorial design.

RESULTS

The largest impact resulted from secondary HIVST distribution to partners of ART patients at PHC (life years saved (LYS): 119 000 (scenario A); 393 000 (scenario B)). However, it was one of the least cost-effective modalities (A: $1394/LYS; B: $4162/LYS). Workplace distribution was cost-saving ($52-$76 million) and predicted to have a moderate epidemic impact (A: 40 000 LYS; B: 156 000 LYS). An optimised scale-up to 6.7 million tests would result in an almost threefold increase in LYS compared with a scale-up of status-quo distribution (216 000 vs 75 000 LYS).

CONCLUSION

Optimisation-informed distribution has the potential to vastly improve the impact of HIVST. Using this approach, HIVST can play a key role in improving the long-term health impact of investment in HIVST.

Getting resources to those who need them: the evidence we need to budget for underserved populations in sub-Saharan Africa

INTRODUCTION

In recent years, many countries have adopted evidence-based budgeting (EBB) to encourage the best use of limited and decreasing HIV resources. The lack of data and evidence for hard to reach, marginalized and vulnerable populations could cause EBB to further disadvantage those who are already underserved and who carry a disproportionate HIV burden (USDB). We outline the critical data required to use EBB to support USDB people in the context of the generalized epidemics of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

DISCUSSION

To be considered in an EBB cycle, an intervention needs at a minimum to have an estimate of a) the average cost, typically per recipient of the intervention; b) the effectiveness of the intervention and c) the size of the intervention target population. The methods commonly used for general populations are not sufficient for generating valid estimates for USDB populations. USDB populations may require additional resources to learn about, access, and/or successfully participate in an intervention, increasing the cost per recipient. USDB populations may experience different health outcomes and/or other benefits than in general populations, influencing the effectiveness of the interventions. Finally, USDB population size estimation is critical for accurate programming but is difficult to obtain with almost no national estimates for countries in SSA. We explain these limitations and make recommendations for addressing them.

CONCLUSIONS

EBB is a strong tool to achieve efficient allocation of resources, but in SSA the evidence necessary for USDB populations may be lacking. Rather than excluding USDB populations from the budgeting process, more should be invested in understanding the needs of these populations.

Costs of integrating HIV self-testing in public health facilities in Malawi, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe

INTRODUCTION

As countries approach the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets, there is a need for innovative and cost-saving HIV testing approaches that can increase testing coverage in hard-to-reach populations. The HIV Self-Testing Africa-Initiative distributed HIV self-test (HIVST) kits using unincentivised HIV testing counsellors across 31 public facilities in Malawi, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. HIVST was distributed either through secondary (partner's use) distribution alone or primary (own use) and secondary distribution approaches.

METHODS

We evaluated the costs of adding HIVST to existing HIV testing from the providers' perspective in the 31 public health facilities across the four countries between 2018 and 2019. We combined expenditure analysis and bottom-up costing approaches. We also carried out time-and-motion studies on the counsellors to estimate the human resource costs of introducing and demonstrating how to use HIVST for primary and secondary use.

RESULTS

A total of 41 720 kits were distributed during the analysis period, ranging from 1254 in Zimbabwe to 27 678 in Zambia. The cost per kit distributed through the primary distribution approach was $4.27 in Zambia and $9.24 in Zimbabwe. The cost per kit distributed through the secondary distribution approach ranged from $6.46 in Zambia to $13.42 in South Africa, with a wider variation in the average cost at facility-level. From the time-and-motion observations, the counsellors spent between 20% and 44% of the observed workday on HIVST. Overall, personnel and test kit costs were the main cost drivers.

CONCLUSION

The average costs of distributing HIVST kits were comparable across the four countries in our analysis despite wide cost variability within countries. We recommend context-specific exploration of potential efficiency gains from these facility-level cost variations and demand creation activities to ensure continued affordability at scale.

Reaching Absent and Refusing Individuals During Home-Based HIV Testing Through Self-Testing-at What Cost?

Introduction: In the HOSENG trial (NCT03598686), the secondary distribution of oral self-tests for persons absent or refusing to test during a home-based HIV testing campaign in rural Lesotho resulted in an increase in testing coverage of 21% compared to a testing campaign without secondary distribution. This study aims to determine the per patient costs of both HOSENG trial arms.

Method: We conducted a micro-costing study to estimate the cost of home-based HIV testing with (HOSENG intervention arm) and without (HOSENG control arm) secondary self-test distribution from a provider's perspective. A mixture of top-down and bottom-up costing was used. We estimated both the financial and economic per patient costs of each possible testing cascade scenario. The costs were adjusted to 2018 US$.

Results: The overall provider cost for delivering the home-based HIV testing with secondary distribution was US$36,481 among the 4,174 persons enumerated and 3,094 eligible for testing in the intervention villages compared to US$28,620 for 3,642 persons enumerated and 2,727 eligible for testing in the control. The cost per person eligible for testing was US$11.79 in the intervention vs. US$10.50 in the control. This difference was mainly driven by the cost of distributed oral self-tests. The cost per person tested was, however, lower in intervention villages (US$15.70 vs. US$22.15) due to the higher testing coverage achieved through self-test distribution. The cost per person confirmed new HIV+ was US$889.79 in the intervention and US$753.17 in the control.

Conclusion: During home-based HIV testing in Lesotho, the secondary distribution of self-tests for persons absent or refusing to test during the visit reduced the costs per person tested and thus presents a promising add-on for such campaigns.

Trial Registration:https://ClinicalTrials.gov/, identifier: NCT03598686

The only way is up: priorities for implementing long-acting antiretrovirals for HIV prevention and treatment

Purpose of review

Long-acting HIV treatment and prevention (LAHTP) can address some of the achievement gaps of daily oral therapy to bring us closer to achieving Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS Fast-track goals. Implementing these new technologies presents individual-level, population-level, and health systems-level opportunities and challenges.

Recent findings

To optimize LAHTP implementation and impact, decision-makers should define and gather relevant data to inform their investment case within the existing health systems context. Programmatic observations from scale-up of antiretroviral therapy, oral preexposure prophylaxis, voluntary medical male circumcision, and family planning offer lessons as planning begins for implementation of LAHTP. Additional data intelligence should be derived from formative studies, pragmatic clinical trials, epidemiologic and economic modeling of LAHTP. Key implementation issues that need to be addressed include optimal communication strategies for demand creation; target setting; logistics and supply chain of commodities needed for LAHTP delivery; human resource planning; defining and operationalizing monitoring and evaluating metrics; integration into health systems.

Summary

Successful LAHTP implementation can bolster treatment and prevention coverage levels if implementation issues outlined above are proactively addressed in parallel with research and development so that health systems can more rapidly integrate new technologies as they gain regulatory approval.

Cost and cost-effectiveness of a universal HIV testing and treatment intervention in Zambia and South Africa: evidence and projections from the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial

BACKGROUND

The HPTN 071 (PopART) trial showed that a combination HIV prevention package including universal HIV testing and treatment (UTT) reduced population-level incidence of HIV compared with standard care. However, evidence is scarce on the costs and cost-effectiveness of such an intervention.

METHODS

Using an individual-based model, we simulated the PopART intervention and standard care with antiretroviral therapy (ART) provided according to national guidelines for the 21 trial communities in Zambia and South Africa (for all individuals aged >14 years), with model parameters and primary cost data collected during the PopART trial and from published sources. Two intervention scenarios were modelled: annual rounds of PopART from 2014 to 2030 (PopART 2014-30; as the UNAIDS Fast-Track target year) and three rounds of PopART throughout the trial intervention period (PopART 2014-17). For each country, we calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) as the cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) and cost per HIV infection averted. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves were used to indicate the probability of PopART being cost-effective compared with standard care at different thresholds of cost per DALY averted. We also assessed budget impact by projecting undiscounted costs of the intervention compared with standard care up to 2030.

FINDINGS

During 2014-17, the mean cost per person per year of delivering home-based HIV counselling and testing, linkage to care, promotion of ART adherence, and voluntary medical male circumcision via community HIV care providers for the simulated population was US$6·53 (SD 0·29) in Zambia and US$7·93 (0·16) in South Africa. In the PopART 2014-30 scenario, median ICERs for PopART delivered annually until 2030 were $2111 (95% credible interval [CrI] 1827-2462) per HIV infection averted in Zambia and $3248 (2472-3963) per HIV infection averted in South Africa; and $593 (95% CrI 526-674) per DALY averted in Zambia and $645 (538-757) per DALY averted in South Africa. In the PopART 2014-17 scenario, PopART averted one infection at a cost of $1318 (1098-1591) in Zambia and $2236 (1601-2916) in South Africa, and averted one DALY at $258 (225-298) in Zambia and $326 (266-391) in South Africa, when outcomes were projected until 2030. The intervention had almost 100% probability of being cost-effective at thresholds greater than $700 per DALY averted in Zambia, and greater than $800 per DALY averted in South Africa, in the PopART 2014-30 scenario. Incremental programme costs for annual rounds until 2030 were $46·12 million (for a mean of 341 323 people) in Zambia and $30·24 million (for a mean of 165 852 people) in South Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Combination prevention with universal home-based testing can be delivered at low annual cost per person but accumulates to a considerable amount when scaled for a growing population. Combination prevention including UTT is cost-effective at thresholds greater than $800 per DALY averted and can be an efficient strategy to reduce HIV incidence in high-prevalence settings.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health, President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, International Initiative for Impact Evaluation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of flucytosine as induction therapy in the treatment of cryptococcal meningitis in HIV-infected adults in South Africa

Background

Cryptococcal meningitis in HIV-infected patients in sub-Saharan Africa accounts for three-quarters of the global cases and 135,000 deaths per annum. Current treatment includes the use of fluconazole and amphotericin B. Recent evidence has shown that the synergistic use of flucytosine improves efficacy and reduces toxicity, however affordability and availability has hampered access to flucytosine in many countries. This study investigated the evidence and cost implications of introducing flucytosine as induction therapy for cryptococcal meningitis in HIV-infected adults in South Africa.

Methods

A decision analytic cost-effectiveness and cost impact model was developed based on survival estimates from the ACTA trial and local costs for flucytosine as induction therapy in HIV-infected adults with cryptococcal meningitis in a public sector setting in South Africa. The model considered five treatment arms: (a) standard of care; 2-week course amphotericin B/fluconazole (2wk AmBd/Flu), (b) 2-week course amphotericin B/flucytosine (2wk AmBd/5FC), (c) short course; 1-week course amphotericin B/flucytosine (1wk AmBd/5FC) (d) oral course; 2-week oral fluconazole/flucytosine (oral) and e) 1-week course amphotericin B/fluconazole (1wk AmBd/Flu). A sensitivity analysis was conducted on key variables.

Results

The highest total treatment costs are in the 2-week AmBd/5FC arm followed by the 2-week oral regimen, the 1-week AmBd/5FC, then standard of care with the lowest cost in the 1-week AmBd/Flu arm. Compared to the lowest cost option the 1-week flucytosine course is most cost-effective at USD119/QALY. The cost impact analysis shows that the 1-week flucytosine course has an incremental cost of just over USD293 per patient per year compared to what is currently spent on standard of care. Sensitivity analyses suggest that the model is most sensitive to life expectancy and hospital costs, particularly infusion costs and length of stay.

Conclusions

The addition of flucytosine as induction therapy for the treatment of cryptococcal meningitis in patients infected with HIV is cost-effective when it is used as a 1-week AmBd/5FC regimen. Savings could be achieved with early discharge of patients as well as a reduction in the price of flucytosine.

Optimizing HIV retesting during pregnancy and postpartum in four countries: a cost-effectiveness analysis

INTRODUCTION

HIV retesting during late pregnancy and breastfeeding can help detect new maternal infections and prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT), but the optimal timing and cost-effectiveness of maternal retesting remain uncertain.

METHODS

We constructed deterministic models to assess the health and economic impact of maternal HIV retesting on a hypothetical population of pregnant women, following initial testing in pregnancy, on MTCT in four countries: South Africa and Kenya (high/intermediate HIV prevalence), and Colombia and Ukraine (low HIV prevalence). We evaluated six scenarios with varying retesting frequencies from late in antenatal care (ANC) through nine months postpartum. We compared strategies using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) over a 20-year time horizon using country-specific thresholds.

RESULTS

We found maternal retesting once in late ANC with catch-up testing through six weeks postpartum was cost-effective in Kenya (ICER = $166 per DALY averted) and South Africa (ICER=$289 per DALY averted). This strategy prevented 19% (Kenya) and 12% (South Africa) of infant HIV infections. Adding one or two additional retests postpartum provided smaller benefits (1 to 2 percentage point increase in infections averted versus one retest). Adding three retests during the postpartum period averted additional infections (1 to 3 percentage point increase in infections averted versus one retest) but ICERs ($7639 and in Kenya and $11 985 in South Africa) greatly exceeded the cost-effectiveness thresholds. In Colombia and Ukraine, all retesting strategies exceeded the cost-effectiveness threshold and prevented few infant infections (up to 31 and 5 infections, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

In high HIV burden settings with MTCT rates similar to those seen in Kenya and South Africa, HIV retesting once in late ANC, with subsequent intervention, is the most cost-effective strategy for preventing infant HIV infections. In these settings, two HIV retests postpartum marginally reduced MTCT and were less costly than adding three retests. Retesting in low-burden settings with MTCT rates similar to Colombia and Ukraine was not cost-effective at any time point due to very low HIV prevalence and limited breastfeeding.

Innate immune signatures to a partially-efficacious HIV vaccine predict correlates of HIV-1 infection risk

The pox-protein regimen tested in the RV144 trial is the only vaccine strategy demonstrated to prevent HIV-1 infection. Subsequent analyses identified antibody and cellular immune responses as correlates of risk (CoRs) for HIV infection. Early predictors of these CoRs could provide insight into vaccine-induced protection and guide efforts to enhance vaccine efficacy. Using specimens from a phase 1b trial of the RV144 regimen in HIV-1-uninfected South Africans (HVTN 097), we profiled innate responses to the first ALVAC-HIV immunization. PBMC transcriptional responses peaked 1 day post-vaccination. Type I and II interferon signaling pathways were activated, as were innate pathways critical for adaptive immune priming. We then identified two innate immune transcriptional signatures strongly associated with adaptive immune CoR after completion of the 4-dose regimen. Day 1 signatures were positively associated with antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity and phagocytosis activity at Month 6.5. Conversely, a signature present on Days 3 and 7 was inversely associated with Env-specific CD4+ T cell responses at Months 6.5 and 12; rapid resolution of this signature was associated with higher Env-specific CD4+ T-cell responses. These are the first-reported early immune biomarkers of vaccine-induced responses associated with HIV-1 acquisition risk in humans and suggest hypotheses to improve HIV-1 vaccine regimens.

The innate immune response is the body’s initial defense against pathogens and is linked to and shapes the subsequent adaptive immune response, which can confer long-lasting protection. For a vaccine with partial efficacy, such as the RV144 HIV vaccine regimen, identifying early innate responses that are linked with adaptive responses—particularly those for which evidence has accumulated that they might be important for protection—could help a more efficacious version be developed. In the HVTN 097 study, the RV144 prime-boost (ALVAC-HIV and AIDSVAX B/E) vaccine regimen was given to South African participants. We characterized the innate response to the first dose of ALVAC-HIV in these participants and identified gene expression signatures present within the first few days that were associated with antibody and T-cell responses to the full vaccine regimen measured up to 1 year later. As these antibody and T-cell responses have previously been implicated in protection, our findings suggest ways of refining the RV144 regimen and also have broader applications to vaccine development.

Eliminating mother-to-child transmission of human immunodeficiency virus, syphilis and hepatitis B in sub-Saharan Africa

Triple elimination is an initiative supporting the elimination of mother-to-child transmission of three diseases – human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, syphilis and hepatitis B. Significant progress towards triple elimination has been made in some regions, but progress has been slow in sub-Saharan Africa, the region with the highest burden of these diseases. The shared features of the three diseases, including their epidemiology, disease interactions and core interventions for tackling them, enable an integrated health-systems approach for elimination of mother-to-child transmission. Current barriers to triple elimination in sub-Saharan Africa include a lack of policies, strategies and resources to support the uptake of well established preventive and treatment interventions. While much can be achieved with existing tools, the development of new products and models of care, as well as a prioritized research agenda, are needed to accelerate progress on triple elimination in sub-Saharan Africa. In this paper we aim to show that health systems working together with communities in sub-Saharan Africa could deliver rapid and sustainable results towards the elimination of mother-to-child transmission of all three diseases. However, stronger political support, expansion of evidence-based interventions and better use of funding streams are needed to improve efficiency and build on the successes in prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV. Triple elimination is a strategic opportunity to reduce the morbidity and mortality from HIV infection, syphilis and hepatitis B for mothers and their infants within the context of universal health coverage.

Estimating the contribution of key populations towards HIV transmission in South Africa

INTRODUCTION

In generalized epidemic settings, there is insufficient understanding of how the unmet HIV prevention and treatment needs of key populations (KPs), such as female sex workers (FSWs) and men who have sex with men (MSM), contribute to HIV transmission. In such settings, it is typically assumed that HIV transmission is driven by the general population. We estimated the contribution of commercial sex, sex between men, and other heterosexual partnerships to HIV transmission in South Africa (SA).

METHODS

We developed the "Key-Pop Model"; a dynamic transmission model of HIV among FSWs, their clients, MSM, and the broader population in SA. The model was parameterized and calibrated using demographic, behavioural and epidemiological data from national household surveys and KP surveys. We estimated the contribution of commercial sex, sex between men and sex among heterosexual partnerships of different sub-groups to HIV transmission over 2010 to 2019. We also estimated the efficiency (HIV infections averted per person-year of intervention) and prevented fraction (% IA) over 10-years from scaling-up ART (to 81% coverage) in different sub-populations from 2020.

RESULTS

Sex between FSWs and their paying clients, and between clients with their non-paying partners contributed 6.9% (95% credibility interval 4.5% to 9.3%) and 41.9% (35.1% to 53.2%) of new HIV infections in SA over 2010 to 2019 respectively. Sex between low-risk groups contributed 59.7% (47.6% to 68.5%), sex between men contributed 5.3% (2.3% to 14.1%) and sex between MSM and their female partners contributed 3.7% (1.6% to 9.8%). Going forward, the largest population-level impact on HIV transmission can be achieved from scaling up ART to clients of FSWs (% IA = 18.2% (14.0% to 24.4%) or low-risk individuals (% IA = 20.6% (14.7 to 27.5) over 2020 to 2030), with ART scale-up among KPs being most efficient.

CONCLUSIONS

Clients of FSWs play a fundamental role in HIV transmission in SA. Addressing the HIV prevention and treatment needs of KPs in generalized HIV epidemics is central to a comprehensive HIV response.

Individual and community-level benefits of PrEP in western Kenya and South Africa: Implications for population prioritization of PrEP provision

Background

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is highly effective in preventing HIV and has the potential to significantly impact the HIV epidemic. Given limited resources for HIV prevention, identifying PrEP provision strategies that maximize impact is critical.

Methods

We used a stochastic individual-based network model to evaluate the direct (infections prevented among PrEP users) and indirect (infections prevented among non-PrEP users as a result of PrEP) benefits of PrEP, the person-years of PrEP required to prevent one HIV infection, and the community-level impact of providing PrEP to populations defined by gender and age in western Kenya and South Africa. We examined sensitivity of results to scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) by comparing two scenarios: maintaining current coverage (“status quo”) and rapid scale-up to meet programmatic targets (“fast-track”).

Results

The community-level impact of PrEP was greatest among women aged 15–24 due to high incidence, while PrEP use among men aged 15–24 yielded the highest proportion of indirect infections prevented in the community. These indirect infections prevented continue to increase over time (western Kenya: 0.4–5.5 (status quo); 0.4–4.9 (fast-track); South Africa: 0.5–1.8 (status quo); 0.5–3.0 (fast-track)) relative to direct infections prevented among PrEP users. The number of person-years of PrEP needed to prevent one HIV infection was lower (59 western Kenya and 69 in South Africa in the status quo scenario; 201 western Kenya and 87 in South Africa in the fast-track scenario) when PrEP was provided only to women compared with only to men over time horizons of up to 5 years, as the indirect benefits of providing PrEP to men accrue in later years.

Conclusions

Providing PrEP to women aged 15–24 prevents the greatest number of HIV infections per person-year of PrEP, but PrEP provision for young men also provides indirect benefits to women and to the community overall. This finding supports existing policies that prioritize PrEP use for young women, while also illuminating the community-level benefits of PrEP availability for men when resources permit.

Cost-effectiveness of point-of-care testing with task-shifting for HIV care in South Africa: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

The number of people on antiretroviral therapy (ART) requiring treatment monitoring in low-resource settings is rapidly increasing. Point-of-care (POC) testing for ART monitoring might alleviate burden on centralised laboratories and improve clinical outcomes, but its cost-effectiveness is unknown.

METHODS

We used cost and effectiveness data from the STREAM trial in South Africa (February, 2017-October, 2018), which evaluated POC testing for viral load, CD4 count, and creatinine, with task shifting from professional to lower-cadre registered nurses compared with laboratory-based testing without task shifting (standard of care). We parameterised an agent-based network model, EMOD-HIV, to project the impact of implementing this intervention in South Africa over 20 years, simulating approximately 175 000 individuals per run. We assumed POC monitoring increased viral suppression by 9 percentage points, enrolment into community-based ART delivery by 25 percentage points, and switching to second-line ART by 1 percentage point compared with standard of care, as reported in the STREAM trial. We evaluated POC implementation in varying clinic sizes (10-50 patient initiating ART per month). We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and report the mean and 90% model variability of 250 runs, using a cost-effectiveness threshold of US$500 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted for our main analysis.

FINDINGS

POC testing at 70% coverage of patients on ART was projected to reduce HIV infections by 4·5% (90% model variability 1·6 to 7·6) and HIV-related deaths by 3·9% (2·0 to 6·0). In clinics with 30 ART initiations per month, the intervention had an ICER of $197 (90% model variability -27 to 863) per DALY averted; results remained cost-effective when varying background viral suppression, ART dropout, intervention effectiveness, and reduction in HIV transmissibility. At higher clinic volumes (≥40 ART initiations per month), POC testing was cost-saving and at lower clinic volumes (20 ART initiations per month) the ICER was $734 (93 to 2569). A scenario that assumed POC testing did not increase enrolment into community ART delivery produced ICERs that exceeded the cost-effectiveness threshold for all clinic volumes.

INTERPRETATION

POC testing is a promising strategy to cost-effectively improve patient outcomes in moderately sized clinics in South Africa. Results are most sensitive to changes in intervention impact on enrolment into community-based ART delivery.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health.

Modelling impact and cost-effectiveness of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis in 13 low-resource countries

INTRODUCTION

Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) provision is a priority intervention for high HIV prevalence settings and populations at substantial risk of HIV acquisition. This mathematical modelling analysis estimated the impact, cost and cost-effectiveness of scaling up oral PrEP in 13 countries.

METHODS

We projected the impact and cost-effectiveness of oral PrEP between 2018 and 2030 using a combination of the Incidence Patterns Model and the Goals model. We created four PrEP rollout scenarios involving three priority populations-female sex workers (FSWs), serodiscordant couples (SDCs) and adolescent girls and young women (AGYW)-both with and without geographic prioritization. We applied the model to 13 countries (Eswatini, Ethiopia, Haiti, Kenya, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe). The base case assumed achievement of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS 90-90-90 antiretroviral therapy targets, 90% male circumcision coverage by 2020 and 90% efficacy and adherence levels for oral PrEP.

RESULTS

In the scenarios we examined, oral PrEP averted 3% to 8% of HIV infections across the 13 countries between 2018 and 2030. For all but three countries, more than 50% of the HIV infections averted by oral PrEP in the scenarios we examined could be obtained by rollout to FSWs and SDCs alone. For several countries, expanding oral PrEP to include medium-risk AGYW in all regions greatly increased the impact. The efficiency and impact benefits of geographic prioritization of rollout to AGYW varied across countries. Variations in cost-effectiveness across countries reflected differences in HIV incidence and expected variations in unit cost. For most countries, rolling out oral PrEP to FSWs, SDCs and geographically prioritized AGYW was not projected to have a substantial impact on the supply chain for antiretroviral drugs.

CONCLUSIONS

These modelling results can inform prioritization, target-setting and other decisions related to oral PrEP scale-up within combination prevention programmes. We caution against extensive use given limitations in cost data and implementation approaches. This analysis highlights some of the immediate challenges facing countries-for example, trade-offs between overall impact and cost-effectiveness-and emphasizes the need to improve data availability and risk assessment tools to help countries make informed decisions.

Community-based antiretroviral therapy versus standard clinic-based services for HIV in South Africa and Uganda (DO ART): a randomised trial

BACKGROUND

Community-based delivery of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV, including ART initiation, clinical and laboratory monitoring, and refills, could reduce barriers to treatment and improve viral suppression, reducing the gap in access to care for individuals who have detectable HIV viral load, including men who are less likely than women to be virally suppressed. We aimed to test the effect of community-based ART delivery on viral suppression among people living with HIV not on ART.

METHODS

We did a household-randomised, unblinded trial (DO ART) of delivery of ART in the community compared with the clinic in rural and peri-urban settings in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa and the Sheema District, Uganda. After community-based HIV testing, people living with HIV were randomly assigned (1:1:1) with mobile phone software to community-based ART initiation with quarterly monitoring and ART refills through mobile vans; ART initiation at the clinic followed by mobile van monitoring and refills (hybrid approach); or standard clinic ART initiation and refills. The primary outcome was HIV viral suppression at 12 months. If the difference in viral suppression was not superior between study groups, an a-priori test for non-inferiority was done to test for a relative risk (RR) of more than 0·95. The cost per person virally suppressed was a co-primary outcome of the study. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02929992.

FINDINGS

Between May 26, 2016, and March 28, 2019, of 2479 assessed for eligibility, 1315 people living with HIV and not on ART with detectable viral load at baseline were randomly assigned; 666 (51%) were men. Retention at the month 12 visit was 95% (n=1253). At 12 months, community-based ART increased viral suppression compared with the clinic group (306 [74%] vs 269 [63%], RR 1·18, 95% CI 1·07-1·29; psuperiority=0·0005) and the hybrid approach was non-inferior (282 [68%] vs 269 [63%], RR 1·08, 0·98-1·19; pnon-inferiority=0·0049). Community-based ART increased viral suppression among men (73%, RR 1·34, 95% CI 1·16-1·55; psuperiority<0·0001) as did the hybrid approach (66%, RR 1·19, 1·02-1·40; psuperiority=0·026), compared with clinic-based ART (54%). Viral suppression was similar for men (n=156 [73%]) and women (n=150 [75%]) in the community-based ART group. With efficient scale-up, community-based ART could cost US$275-452 per person reaching viral suppression. Community-based ART was considered safe, with few adverse events.

INTERPRETATION

In high and medium HIV prevalence settings in South Africa and Uganda, community-based delivery of ART significantly increased viral suppression compared with clinic-based ART, particularly among men, eliminating disparities in viral suppression by gender. Community-based ART should be implemented and evaluated in different contexts for people with detectable viral load.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; the University of Washington and Fred Hutch Center for AIDS Research; the Wellcome Trust; the University of Washington Royalty Research Fund; and the University of Washington King K Holmes Endowed Professorship in STDs and AIDS.

Will differentiated care for stable HIV patients reduce healthcare systems costs?

INTRODUCTION

South Africa's National Department of Health launched the National Adherence Guidelines for Chronic Diseases in 2015. These guidelines include adherence clubs (AC) and decentralized medication delivery (DMD) as two differentiated models of care for stable HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy. While the adherence guidelines do not suggest that provider costs (costs to the healthcare system for medications, laboratory tests and visits to clinics or alternative locations) for stable patients in these differentiated models of care will be lower than conventional, clinic-based care, recent modelling exercises suggest that such differentiated models could substantially reduce provider costs. In the context of continued implementation of the guidelines, we discuss the conditions under which provider costs of care for stable HIV patients could fall, or rise, with AC and DMD models of care in South Africa.

DISCUSSION

In prior studies of HIV care and treatment costs, three main cost categories are antiretroviral medications, laboratory tests and general interaction costs based on encounters with health workers. Stable patients are likely to be on the national first-line regimen (Tenofovir/Entricitabine/Efavarinz (TDF/FTC/EFV)), so no difference in the costs of medications is expected. Laboratory testing guidelines for stable patients are the same regardless of the model of care, so no difference in laboratory costs is expected as well. Based on existing information regarding the costs of clinic visits, AC visits and DMD drug pickups, we expect that for some clinics, visit costs for DMD or AC models of care could be less, but modestly so, than for conventional, clinic-based care. For other clinics, however, DMD or AC models could have higher visit costs (see Table 2).

CONCLUSIONS

The standard of care for stable patients has already been "differentiated" for years in South Africa, prior to the roll out of the new adherence guidelines. AC and DMD models of care, when implemented as envisioned in the guidelines, are unlikely to generate substantive reductions or increases in provider costs of care.

Understanding the costs and the cost structure of a community-based HIV and gender-based violence (GBV) prevention program: the Woza Asibonisane Community Responses Program in South Africa

Background

The Woza Asibonisane Community Responses (CR) Programme was developed to prevent HIV infections and gender-based violence (GBV) within four provinces in South Africa. The Centre for Communication Impact (CCI) in collaboration with six partner non-governmental organizations (NGOs) implemented the programme, which was comprised of multiple types of group discussion and education activities organized and facilitated by each NGO. To date, little information exists on the cost of implementing such multi-objective, multi-activity, community-based programmes. To address this information gap, we estimated the annual cost of implementing the CR Programme for each NGO.

Methods

We used standard methods to estimate the costs for each NGO, which involved a package of multiple activities targeted to distinct subpopulations in specific locations. The primary sources of information came from the implementing organizations. Costs (US dollars, 2017) are reported for each partner for one implementation year (the U.S. Government fiscal year (10/2016–09/2017). In addition to total costs disaggregated by main input categories, a common metric--cost per participant intervention hour--is used to summarize costs across partners.

Results

Each activity included in the CR program involve organizing and bringing together a group of people from the target population to a location and then completing the curriculum for that activity. Activities were held in community settings (meeting hall, community center, sports grounds, schools, etc.). The annual cost per NGO varied substantially, from $260,302 to $740,413, as did scale based on estimated total participant hours, from 101,703 to 187,792 participant hours. The cost per participant hour varied from $2.8–$4.6, with NGO labor disaggregated into salaries for management and salaries for service delivery (providing the activity curriculum) contributing to the largest share of costs per participant hour.

Conclusions

The cost of implementing any community-based program depends on: (1) what the program implements; (2) the resources used; and (3) unit costs for such resources. Reporting on costs alone, however, does not provide enough information to evaluate if the costs are ‘too high’ or ‘too low’ without a clearer understanding of the benefits produced by the program, and if the benefits would change if resources (and therefore costs) were changed.

The impact of self-selection based on HIV risk on the cost-effectiveness of preexposure prophylaxis in South Africa

OBJECTIVES

We explored the impact and cost-effectiveness of preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) provision to different populations in South Africa, with and without effective self-selection by individuals at highest risk of contracting HIV (through concurrent partnerships and/or commercial sex).

DESIGN AND METHODS

We used a previously developed HIV transmission model to analyse the epidemiological impact of PrEP provision to adolescents, young adults, pregnant women, female sex workers (FSWs) and (MSM), and data from South African PrEP programmes to estimate the cost and cost-effectiveness of PrEP (cost in 2019 USD per HIV infection averted over 20 years, 2019, 38). PrEP uptake followed data from early implementation sites, scaled-up linearly over 3 years, with target coverage set to 18% for adolescents, young adults and pregnant women, 30% for FSW and 54% for MSM.

RESULTS

The annual cost of PrEP provision ranges between $75 and $134 per person. PrEP provision adolescents and young adults, regardless of risk behaviour, will each avert 3.2--4.8% of HIV infections over 20 years; provision to high-risk individuals only has similar impact at lower total cost. The incremental cost per HIV infection averted is lower in high-risk vs. all-risk sub-populations within female adolescents ($507 vs. $4537), male adolescents ($2108 vs. $5637), young women ($1592 vs. $10 323) and young men ($2605 vs. $7715), becoming cost saving within 20 years for high-risk adolescents, young women, MSM and FSWs.

CONCLUSION

PrEP is an expensive prevention intervention but uptake by those at the highest risk of HIV infection will make it more cost-effective, and cost-saving after 14-18 years.

The state of costing research for HIV interventions in sub-Saharan Africa

The past decade has seen a growing emphasis on the production of high-quality costing data to improve the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of global health interventions. The need for such data is especially important for decision making and priority setting across HIV services from prevention and testing to treatment and care. To help address this critical need, the Global Health Cost Consortium was created in 2016, in part to conduct a systematic search and screening of the costing literature for HIV and TB interventions in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). The purpose of this portion of the remit was to compile, standardise, and make publicly available published cost data (peer-reviewed and gray) for public use. We limit our analysis to a review of the quantity and characteristics of published cost data from HIV interventions in sub-Saharan Africa. First, we document the production of cost data over 25 years, including density over time, geography, publication venue, authorship and type of intervention. Second, we explore key methods and reporting for characteristics including urbanicity, platform type, ownership and scale. Although the volume of HIV costing data has increased substantially on the continent, cost reporting is lacking across several dimensions. We find a dearth of cost estimates from HIV interventions in west Africa, as well as inconsistent reporting of key dimensions of cost including platform type, ownership and urbanicity. Further, we find clear evidence of a need for renewed focus on the consistent reporting of scale by authors of costing and cost-effectiveness analyses.

Developing the Global Health Cost Consortium Unit Cost Study Repository for HIV and TB: methodology and lessons learned

Consistently defined, accurate, and easily accessible cost data are a valuable resource to inform efficiency analyses, budget preparation, and sustainability planning in global health. The Global Health Cost Consortium (GHCC) designed the Unit Cost Study Repository (UCSR) to be a resource for standardised HIV and TB intervention cost data displayed by key characteristics such as intervention type, country, and target population. To develop the UCSR, the GHCC defined a typology of interventions for each disease; aligned interventions according to the standardised principles, methods, and cost and activity categories from the GHCC Reference Case for Estimating the Costs of Global Health Services and Interventions; completed a systematic literature review; conducted extensive data extraction; performed quality assurance; grappled with complex methodological issues such as the proper approach to the inflation and conversion of costs; developed and implemented a study quality rating system; and designed a web-based user interface that flexibly displays large amounts of data in a user-friendly way. Key lessons learned from the extraction process include the importance of assessing the multiple uses of extracted data; the critical role of standardising definitions (particularly units of measurement); using appropriate classifications of interventions and components of costs; the efficiency derived from programming data checks; and the necessity of extraction quality monitoring by senior analysts. For the web interface, lessons were: understanding the target audiences, including consulting them regarding critical characteristics; designing the display of data in "levels"; and incorporating alert and unique trait descriptions to further clarify differences in the data.

Epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of providing long-acting pre-exposure prophylaxis to injectable contraceptive users for HIV prevention in South Africa: a modelling study

INTRODUCTION

Although pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP.) is an efficacious HIV prevention strategy, its preventive benefit has not been shown among young women in sub-Saharan Africa, likely due to non-adherence. Adherence may be improved with the use of injectable long-acting PrEP methods currently being developed. We hypothesize that providing long-acting PrEP to women using injectable contraceptives, the most frequently used contraceptive method in South Africa, could improve adherence to PrEP, result in a reduction of new HIV infections, and be a relatively easy-to-reach target population. In this modelling study, we assessed the epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of providing long-acting PrEP to injectable contraceptive users in Limpopo, South Africa.

METHODS

We developed a deterministic mathematical model calibrated to the HIV epidemic in Limpopo. Long-acting PrEP was provided to 50% of HIV negative injectable contraceptive users in 2018 and scaled-up over two years. We estimated the number of HIV infections that could be averted by 2030 and the drug price of long-acting PrEP for which this intervention would be cost-effective over a time horizon of 40 years, from a healthcare payer perspective. In the base-case scenario we assumed long-acting PrEP is 75% effective in preventing HIV infections and 85% of infected individuals are on antiretroviral drug therapy (ART) by 2030. In sensitivity analyses we adjusted PrEP effectiveness and ART coverage. Costs between $519 and $1119 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted were considered potentially cost-effective, and <$519 as cost-effective.

RESULTS

Without long-acting injectable PrEP, 224,000 (interquartile range 176,000 to 271,000) new infections will occur by 2030; use of long-acting injectable PrEP could prevent 21,000 (17,000 to 26,000) or 9.8% (8.9% to 10.6%) new HIV infections by 2030 (including 6000 (4000 to 7000) in men). Long-acting PrEP would prevent 34,000 (29,000 to 39,000) or 12,000 (8000 to 15,000) at 75% and 95% ART coverage by 2030 respectively. To be considered potentially cost-effective the annual long-acting PrEP drug price should be <$16, and/or ART coverage remains at <85% in 2030.

CONCLUSIONS

Providing long-acting PrEP to injectable contraceptive users in Limpopo is only potentially cost-effective when long-acting PrEP drug prices are low. If low prices are not feasible, providing long-acting PrEP only to women at high risk of HIV infection will become important.