Potential distribution of dominant malaria vector species in tropical region under climate change scenarios

Range dynamics of Anopheles mosquitoes in Africa suggest a significant increase in the malaria transmission risk

Despite a more than 100-year effort to combat malaria, it remains one of the most malignant infectious diseases globally, especially in Africa. Malaria is transmitted by several Anopheles mosquitoes. However, until now few studies have investigated future range dynamics of major An. mosquitoes in Africa through a unified scheme. Through a unified scheme, we developed 21 species distribution models to predict the range dynamics of 21 major An. species in Africa under future scenarios and also examined their overall range dynamic patterns mainly through suitability overlap index and range overlap index. Although future range dynamics varied substantially among the 21 An. species, we predicted large future range expansions for all 21 An. species, and increases in suitability overlap index were detected in more than 90% of the African continent for all future scenarios. Additionally, we predicted high range overlap index in West Africa, East Africa, South Sudan, Angola, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo under future scenarios. Although the relative impacts of land use, topography and climate variables on the range dynamics depended on species and spatial scale, climate played the strongest roles in the range dynamics of most species. Africa might face an increasing risk of malaria transmissions in the future, and better strategies are required to address this problem. Mitigating climate change and human disturbance of natural ecosystems might be essential to reduce the proliferation of An. species and the risk of malaria transmissions in Africa in the future. Our strategies against their impacts should be species-specific.

Imported malaria into Australia: surveillance insights and opportunities

BACKGROUND

Malaria continues to pose a significant burden in endemic countries, many of which lack access to molecular surveillance. Insights from malaria cases in travellers returning to non-endemic areas can provide valuable data to inform endemic country programmes. To evaluate the potential for novel global insights into malaria, we examined epidemiological and molecular data from imported malaria cases to Australia.

METHODS

We analysed malaria cases reported in Australia from 2012 to 2022 using National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System data. Molecular data on imported malaria cases were obtained from literature searches.

RESULTS

Between 2012 and 2022, 3204 malaria cases were reported in Australia. Most cases (69%) were male and 44% occurred in young adults aged 20-39 years. Incidence rates initially declined between 2012 and 2015, then increased until 2019. During 2012-2019, the incidence in travellers ranged from 1.34 to 7.71 per 100 000 trips. Cases were primarily acquired in Sub-Saharan Africa (n = 1433; 45%), Oceania (n = 569; 18%) and Southern and Central Asia (n = 367; 12%). The most common countries of acquisition were Papua New Guinea (n = 474) and India (n = 277). Plasmodium falciparum accounted for 58% (1871/3204) of cases and was predominantly acquired in Sub-Saharan Africa, and Plasmodium vivax accounted for 32% (1016/3204), predominantly from Oceania and Asia. Molecular studies of imported malaria cases to Australia identified genetic mutations and deletions associated with drug resistance and false-negative rapid diagnostic test results, and led to the establishment of reference genomes for P. vivax and Plasmodium malariae.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis highlights the continuing burden of imported malaria into Australia. Molecular studies have offered valuable insights into drug resistance and diagnostic limitations, and established reference genomes. Integrating molecular data into national surveillance systems could provide important infectious disease intelligence to optimize treatment guidelines for returning travellers and support endemic country surveillance programmes.

Long-lasting household damage from Cyclone Idai increases malaria risk in rural western Mozambique

Cyclone Idai in 2019 was one of the worst tropical cyclones recorded in the Southern Hemisphere. The storm caused catastrophic damage and led to a humanitarian crisis in Mozambique. The affected population suffered a cholera epidemic on top of housing and infrastructure damage and loss of life. The housing and infrastructure damage sustained during Cyclone Idai still has not been addressed in all affected communities. This is of grave concern because storm damage results in poor housing conditions which are known to increase the risk of malaria. Mozambique has the 4th highest malaria prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa and is struggling to control malaria in most of the country. We conducted a community-based cross-sectional survey in Sussundenga Village, Manica Province, Mozambique in December 2019-February 2020. We found that most participants (64%) lived in households that sustained damage during Cyclone Idai. The overall malaria prevalence was 31% measured by rapid diagnostic test (RDT). When controlling for confounding variables, the odds of malaria infection was nearly threefold higher in participants who lived in households damaged by Cyclone Idai nearly a year after the storm. This highlights the need for long-term disaster response to improve the efficiency and success of malaria control efforts.

The Geographical Coexist of the Migratory Birds, Ticks, and Nairobi Sheep Disease Virus May Potentially Contribute to the Passive Spreading of Nairobi Sheep Disease

Nairobi sheep disease (NSD) is a hemorrhagic vector-borne disease of small ruminants caused by the Nairobi sheep disease virus (NSDV), also known as Ganjam virus (GV). NSDV and GV refer to the same virus. The NSDV has been identified in East Africa, India, Sri Lanka, and China, and NSDV vector ticks can be carried by birds. There is few research on the mechanism of the global cycle and spillover of NSDV. Based on the prediction of the high probability distribution areas of NSD by the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt), the possible passive transport routes of NSDV vector ticks by migratory birds were simulated for further evaluation. The transmission probability of NSDV vector ticks by migrating birds was calculated using evaluations of the parasitism intensity of ticks on migratory birds at start points, the flying burden of parasitized birds, and the attachment coefficient of ticks on birds during migration. A total of 31 potential transport routes were predicted, which, through interaction with each other, constitute a spreading network for NSDV. Seven species of migratory birds were predicted as intra or interregional carriers. Our study first provides measurable support for estimating the possibility of passive migration of NSDV vector ticks by migratory birds that may be potential carriers of ticks and proposes a transmission mechanism between all known natural foci and potential natural foci. These findings highlight the necessity of cooperation in the management of the NSDV in all known and potential natural foci located in different countries, with the aim of blocking global circulation in a cost-effective way. Furthermore, these findings may also contribute to the prevention of other similar diseases.

Trends in mosquito species distribution modeling: insights for vector surveillance and disease control

Species distribution modeling (SDM) has become an increasingly common approach to explore questions about ecology, geography, outbreak risk, and global change as they relate to infectious disease vectors. Here, we conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature, screening 563 abstracts and identifying 204 studies that used SDMs to produce distribution estimates for mosquito species. While the number of studies employing SDM methods has increased markedly over the past decade, the overwhelming majority used a single method (maximum entropy modeling; MaxEnt) and focused on human infectious disease vectors or their close relatives. The majority of regional models were developed for areas in Africa and Asia, while more localized modeling efforts were most common for North America and Europe. Findings from this study highlight gaps in taxonomic, geographic, and methodological foci of current SDM literature for mosquitoes that can guide future efforts to study the geography of mosquito-borne disease risk.

Arboviruses in Mammals in the Neotropics: A Systematic Review to Strengthen Epidemiological Monitoring Strategies and Conservation Medicine

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) are a diverse group of ribonucleic acid (RNA) viruses, with the exception of African swine fever virus, that are transmitted by hematophagous arthropods to a vertebrate host. They are the important cause of many diseases due to their ability to spread in different environments and their diversity of vectors. Currently, there is no information on the geographical distribution of the diseases because the routes of transmission and the mammals (wild or domestic) that act as potential hosts are poorly documented or unknown. We conducted a systematic review from 1967 to 2021 to identify the diversity of arboviruses, the areas, and taxonomic groups that have been monitored, the prevalence of positive records, and the associated risk factors. We identified forty-three arboviruses in nine mammalian orders distributed in eleven countries. In Brazil, the order primates harbor the highest number of arbovirus records. The three most recorded arboviruses were Venezuelan equine encephalitis, Saint Louis encephalitis and West Nile virus. Serum is the most used sample to obtain arbovirus records. Deforestation is identified as the main risk factor for arbovirus transmission between different species and environments (an odds ratio of 1.46 with a 95% confidence interval: 1.34-1.59). The results show an increase in the sampling effort over the years in the neotropical region. Despite the importance of arboviruses for public health, little is known about the interaction of arboviruses, their hosts, and vectors, as some countries and mammalian orders have not yet been monitored. Long-term and constant monitoring allows focusing research on the analysis of the interrelationships and characteristics of each component animal, human, and their environment to understand the dynamics of the diseases and guide epidemiological surveillance and vector control programs. The biodiversity of the Neotropics should be considered to support epidemiological monitoring strategies.

High prevalence of Plasmodium infection in fighting cocks in Thailand determined with a molecular method

Introduction

Avian malaria caused by Plasmodium and the malaria-like parasites of the genus Haemoproteus has been regularly described in multiple regions worldwide. These parasites significantly affect many avian taxa, including domestic chickens and fighting cocks. There are limited epidemiological studies of these blood parasites in vertebrate hosts, especially in Thailand.

Material and Methods

This study used microscopic examination of blood samples and PCR amplification exploiting primers for nucleotide sequences of Plasmodium or Haemoproteus species based on the cytochrome b gene to determine the occurrence of Plasmodium spp. in fighting cocks.

Results

Examination of 249 blood samples of fighting cocks revealed that 41.37% (103/249) were positive for malaria by microscopic examination and 88.76% (221/249) were positive by DNA amplification. Sequencing and DNA analysis of 61 PCR products revealed that infection by Plasmodium juxtanucleare was the most common avian malaria in fighting cocks in Thailand followed by infections by Plasmodium gallinaceum; however, Haemoproteus infection was not discovered.

Conclusion

This study indicated that plasmodiasis is widespread in fighting cocks in Thailand although the prevalence was not clearly determined; therefore, prevention and control strategies for these protozoa should be improved, especially those for avoiding vector exposure and eliminating mosquito breeding sites.

A reverse vaccinology approach on transmembrane carbonic anhydrases from Plasmodium species as vaccine candidates for malaria prevention

BACKGROUND

Malaria is a significant parasitic infection, and human infection is mediated by mosquito (Anopheles) biting and subsequent transmission of protozoa (Plasmodium) to the blood. Carbonic anhydrases (CAs) are known to be highly expressed in the midgut and ectoperitrophic space of Anopheles gambiae. Transmembrane CAs (tmCAs) in Plasmodium may be potential vaccine candidates for the control and prevention of malaria.

METHODS

In this study, two groups of transmembrane CAs, including α-CAs and one group of η-CAs were analysed by immunoinformatics and computational biology methods, such as predictions on transmembrane localization of CAs from Plasmodium spp., affinity and stability of different HLA classes, antigenicity of tmCA peptides, epitope and proteasomal cleavage of Plasmodium tmCAs, accessibility of Plasmodium tmCAs MHC-ligands, allergenicity of Plasmodium tmCAs, disulfide-bond of Plasmodium tmCAs, B cell epitopes of Plasmodium tmCAs, and Cell type-specific expression of Plasmodium CAs.

RESULTS

Two groups of α-CAs and one group of η-CAs in Plasmodium spp. were identified to contain tmCA sequences, having high affinity towards MHCs, high stability, and strong antigenicity. All putative tmCAs were predicted to contain sequences for proteasomal cleavage in antigen presenting cells (APCs).

CONCLUSIONS

The predicted results revealed that tmCAs from Plasmodium spp. can be potential targets for vaccination against malaria.

Spatiotemporal Trends and Distributions of Malaria Incidence in the Northwest Ethiopia

Understanding and extracting noticeable patterns of malaria surveillance data at the district level are crucial for malaria prevention, control, and elimination progress. This study aimed to analyze spatiotemporal trends and nonparametric dynamics of malaria incidences in northwest Ethiopia, considering spatial and temporal correlations. The data were analyzed using count regression spatiotemporal models under the Bayesian setups, and parameters were estimated using integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA). The region had a declining linear trend, and the average annual malaria incidence rate was 24.8 per 1,000 persons between 2012 and 2020. The malaria incidence rate was decreased by 0.984 (95% CI: 0.983, 0.986) per unit increase in months between July 2012 and June 2020. Districts found in the western and northwestern parts of the region had a steeper trend, while districts in the eastern and southern parts had a less steep trend than the average trend of the region. Compared to the regional level trend, the decreasing rate of malaria incidence trends was lower in most town administrations. The nonparametric dynamics showed that the monthly malaria incidence had a sinusoidal wave shape that varied throughout study periods. Malaria incidence had a decreasing linear trend changed across districts of the study region, and the steepness of trends of districts might not depend on incidences. Thus, an intervention and controlling mechanism that considers malaria incidences and district-specific differential trends would be indispensable to mitigate malaria transmission in the region.

Ecological Predictors of Human Malaria Risk During Different Phases of the Elimination: An Analysis of Historical Data

To understand the evolutionary ecology of disease dynamics, it is crucial to identify the environmental factors that mediate the spread and abundance of parasites and their vectors. However, human-mediated changes in the biotic and abiotic environment and intervention programs are intensifying in the past 30-40 years at a rate that masks the causal effect of the original ecological predictors. In this study, we used archived epidemiological data spanning over 100 years on malaria risk in Hungary to demonstrate that different associations exist between infection risk and environmental predictors during different phases of the elimination program. In the early 20th century, when malaria was quite common in the country and no defense program was operating, as predicted, there was a positive relationship between the area of flooded habitats and the intensity of malaria infection. In contrast, this relationship was absent during middle of the century, when an effective elimination program was already in effect. Furthermore, malaria morbidity in a given year was predicted by the degree of stagnant water cover of the previous year when considering the period before the launch of a drastic mosquito control program by dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT), whereas such relationship could not be revealed for a latter period. Our results highlight that human-induced alterations of the socioecological environment considerably reorganizes the ecological landscape of pathogens and their vectors.

A hot topic at the environment-health nexus: investigating the impact of climate change on infectious diseases

CLIMATE CHANGE - THE ULTIMATE CHALLENGE OF OUR TIME

COVID-19 pandemic aside, climate change is the ultimate challenge of our time. However, to date, there has been insufficient political thrust to make that much-needed climate action a reality.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Infectious diseases represent only one facet of the threats arising from climate change. Direct impacts from climate change include the more frequent occurrence and increased magnitude of extreme weather events, as well as changing temperatures and precipitation patterns. For climate-sensitive infectious diseases, these changes implicate a shift in geographical and temporal distribution, seasonality, and transmission intensity.

SIZING UP THE PROBLEM

Susceptibility to the deleterious effects of climate change is a net result of the interplay of not only environmental factors, but also human, societal, and economic factors, with social inequalities being a major determinant of vulnerability. The global South is already disproportionately affected by the climate crisis. The financial capacity to pursue adaptation options is also limited and unevenly distributed.

CONCLUSIONS

Climate change-induced mortality and morbidity from both infectious and non-infectious diseases, among other adverse scenarios, are expected to rise globally in the future. The coming decade will be crucial for using all remaining opportunities to develop and implement adequate mitigation and adaptation strategies.

The Complex Epidemiological Relationship between Flooding Events and Human Outbreaks of Mosquito-Borne Diseases: A Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of flooding events. Although rainfall is highly correlated with mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) in humans, less research focuses on understanding the impact of flooding events on disease incidence. This lack of research presents a significant gap in climate change-driven disease forecasting.

OBJECTIVES

We conducted a scoping review to assess the strength of evidence regarding the potential relationship between flooding and MBD and to determine knowledge gaps.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science were searched through 31 December 2020 and supplemented with review of citations in relevant publications. Studies on rainfall were included only if the operationalization allowed for distinction of unusually heavy rainfall events. Data were abstracted by disease (dengue, malaria, or other) and stratified by post-event timing of disease assessment. Studies that conducted statistical testing were summarized in detail.

RESULTS

From 3,008 initial results, we included 131 relevant studies (dengue n = 45 , malaria n = 61 , other MBD n = 49 ). Dengue studies indicated short-term (< 1  month ) decreases and subsequent (1-4 month) increases in incidence. Malaria studies indicated post-event incidence increases, but the results were mixed, and the temporal pattern was less clear. Statistical evidence was limited for other MBD, though findings suggest that human outbreaks of Murray Valley encephalitis, Ross River virus, Barmah Forest virus, Rift Valley fever, and Japanese encephalitis may follow flooding.

DISCUSSION

Flooding is generally associated with increased incidence of MBD, potentially following a brief decrease in incidence for some diseases. Methodological inconsistencies significantly limit direct comparison and generalizability of study results. Regions with established MBD and weather surveillance should be leveraged to conduct multisite research to a) standardize the quantification of relevant flooding, b) study nonlinear relationships between rainfall and disease, c) report outcomes at multiple lag periods, and d) investigate interacting factors that modify the likelihood and severity of outbreaks across different settings. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8887.

Zoonotic Blood-Borne Pathogens in Non-Human Primates in the Neotropical Region: A Systematic Review

Background: Understanding which non-human primates (NHPs) act as a wild reservoir for blood-borne pathogens will allow us to better understand the ecology of diseases and the role of NHPs in the emergence of human diseases in Ecuador, a small country in South America that lacks information on most of these pathogens. Methods and principal findings: A systematic review was carried out using PRISMA guidelines from 1927 until 2019 about blood-borne pathogens present in NHPs of the Neotropical region (i.e., South America and Middle America). Results: A total of 127 publications were found in several databases. We found in 25 genera (132 species) of NHPs a total of 56 blood-borne pathogens in 197 records where Protozoa has the highest number of records in neotropical NHPs (n = 128) compared to bacteria (n = 12) and viruses (n = 57). Plasmodium brasilianum and Trypanosoma cruzi are the most recorded protozoa in NHP. The neotropical primate genus with the highest number of blood-borne pathogens recorded is Alouatta sp. (n = 32). The use of non-invasive samples for neotropical NHPs remains poor in a group where several species are endangered or threatened. A combination of serological and molecular techniques is common when detecting blood-borne pathogens. Socioecological and ecological risk factors facilitate the transmission of these parasites. Finally, a large number of countries remain unsurveyed, such as Ecuador, which can be of public health importance. Conclusions and significance: NHPs are potential reservoirs of a large number of blood-borne pathogens. In Ecuador, research activities should be focused on bacteria and viruses, where there is a gap of information for neotropical NHPs, in order to implement surveillance programs with regular and effective monitoring protocols adapted to NHPs.

Spatial distribution and sociodemographic risk factors of malaria in Nigerian children less than 5 years old

Malaria remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among children in Nigeria less than 5 years old (under-5). This study utilized nationally representative secondary data extracted from the 2015 Nigeria Malaria Indicator Survey (NMIS) to investigate the spatial variability in malaria distribution in those under- 5 and to explore the influence of socioeconomic and demographic factors on malaria prevalence in this population group. To account for spatial correlation, a Spatially Generalized Linear Mixed Model (SGMM) was employed and predictive risk maps was developed using Kriging. Highly significant spatial variability in under-5 malaria distribution was observed (P<0.0001) with a higher likelihood of malaria prevalence in this group in the Northwest and North-east of the country. The number of malaria infections increased with age, children aged between 49-59 months were found to be at a higher risk (Odds Ratio=4.680, 95% CI=3.674 to 5.961 at P<0.0001). After accounting for spatial correlation, we observed a strong significant association between the non-availability or non-use of mosquito bed-nets, low household socioeconomic status, low level of mother's educational attainment, family size, anaemia prevalence, rural type of residence and under-5 malaria prevalence. Faced with a high rate of under-5 mortality due to malaria in Nigeria, targeted interventions (which requires the identification of the child's location) may reduce malaria prevalence, and we conclude that socioeconomic impediments need to be confronted to reduce the burden of childhood malaria infection.

Evaluating the Effects of Climate and Environmental Factors on Under-5 Children Malaria Spatial Distribution Using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs)

Although malaria burden has declined globally following scale up of intervention, the disease has remained a leading cause of hospitalization and deaths among children aged under-5 years in Nigeria. Malaria is known to be related to climate and environmental conditions. Previous research has usually studied the effects of these factors, neglecting possible correlation between them, high correlation among variables is a source of multicollinearity that induces overfitting in regression modelling. In this paper, a factor analysis was first introduced to circumvent the issue of multicollinearity and a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was subsequently explored to identify the important risk factors that might influence the prevalence of childhood malaria in Nigeria. The GAM incorporated the complexity of the survey data, while simultaneously modelling the nonlinear and spatial random effects to allow a more precise identification of the major malaria risk factors that influence the geographical distribution of the disease. From our findings, the three latent factor components (constituted by humidity, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and wet days/maximum and minimum temperature/proximity to permanent waters, respectively) were significantly associated with malaria prevalence. Our analysis also detected statistically significant and nonlinear effect of altitude: the risk of malaria increased with lower values but declined sharply with higher values. A significant spatial variability in under-5 malaria prevalence across the survey clusters was also observed; malaria burden was higher in the northern part of Nigeria. Investigating the impact of important risk factors and geographical location on childhood malaria is of high relevance for the sustainable development goals (SDGs) 2015–2030 Agenda on malaria eradication, and we believe that the information obtained from this study and the generated risk maps can be useful to effectively target intervention efforts to high-risk areas based on climate and environmental context.

Present and future climatic suitability for dengue fever in Africa

The number of dengue fever incidence and its distribution has increased considerably in recent years in Africa. However, due to inadequate research at the continental level, there is a limited understanding regarding the current and future spatial distribution of the main vector, the mosquitoAedes aegypti, and the associated dengue risk due to climate change. To fill this gap we used reported dengue fever incidences, the presence of Ae. aegypti, and bioclimatic variables in a species distribution model to assess the current and future (2050 and 2070) climatically suitable areas. High temperatures and with high moisture levels are climatically suitable for the distribution of Ae. aegypti related to dengue fever. Under the current climate scenario indicated that 15.2% of the continent is highly suitable for dengue fever outbreaks. We predict that climatically suitable areas for Ae. aegypti related to dengue fever incidences in eastern, central and western part of Africa will increase in the future and will expand further towards higher elevations. Our projections provide evidence for the changing continental threat of vector-borne diseases and can guide public health policy decisions in Africa to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue fever risk.