Spatio-temporal modeling of visceral leishmaniasis in Midwest Brazil: An ecological study of 18-years data (2001-2018)

Modelling spatiotemporal patterns of visceral leishmaniasis incidence in two endemic states in India using environment, bioclimatic and demographic data, 2013-2022

BACKGROUND

As of 2021, the National Kala-azar Elimination Programme (NKAEP) in India has achieved visceral leishmaniasis (VL) elimination (<1 case / 10,000 population/year per block) in 625 of the 633 endemic blocks (subdistricts) in four states. The programme needs to sustain this achievement and target interventions in the remaining blocks to achieve the WHO 2030 target of VL elimination as a public health problem. An effective tool to analyse programme data and predict/ forecast the spatial and temporal trends of VL incidence, elimination threshold, and risk of resurgence will be of use to the programme management at this juncture.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We employed spatiotemporal models incorporating environment, climatic and demographic factors as covariates to describe monthly VL cases for 8-years (2013-2020) in 491 and 27 endemic and non-endemic blocks of Bihar and Jharkhand states. We fitted 37 models of spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal interaction random effects with covariates to monthly VL cases for 6-years (2013-2018, training data) using Bayesian inference via Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) approach. The best-fitting model was selected based on deviance information criterion (DIC) and Watanabe-Akaike Information Criterion (WAIC) and was validated with monthly cases for 2019-2020 (test data). The model could describe observed spatial and temporal patterns of VL incidence in the two states having widely differing incidence trajectories, with >93% and 99% coverage probability (proportion of observations falling inside 95% Bayesian credible interval for the predicted number of VL cases per month) during the training and testing periods. PIT (probability integral transform) histograms confirmed consistency between prediction and observation for the test period. Forecasting for 2021-2023 showed that the annual VL incidence is likely to exceed elimination threshold in 16-18 blocks in 4 districts of Jharkhand and 33-38 blocks in 10 districts of Bihar. The risk of VL in non-endemic neighbouring blocks of both Bihar and Jharkhand are less than 0.5 during the training and test periods, and for 2021-2023, the probability that the risk greater than 1 is negligible (P<0.1). Fitted model showed that VL occurrence was positively associated with mean temperature, minimum temperature, enhanced vegetation index, precipitation, and isothermality, and negatively with maximum temperature, land surface temperature, soil moisture and population density.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The spatiotemporal model incorporating environmental, bioclimatic, and demographic factors demonstrated that the KAMIS database of the national programmme can be used for block level predictions of long-term spatial and temporal trends in VL incidence and risk of outbreak / resurgence in endemic and non-endemic settings. The database integrated with the modelling framework and a dashboard facility can facilitate such analysis and predictions. This could aid the programme to monitor progress of VL elimination at least one-year ahead, assess risk of resurgence or outbreak in post-elimination settings, and implement timely and targeted interventions or preventive measures so that the NKAEP meet the target of achieving elimination by 2030.

Hierarchical spatiotemporal modeling of human visceral leishmaniasis in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected tropical disease that is globally distributed and has the potential to cause very serious illness. Prior literature highlights the emergence and spread of VL is influenced by multiple factors, such as socioeconomic status, sanitation levels or animal and human reservoirs. The study aimed to retrospectively investigate the presence and infectiousness of VL in Rio Grande do Norte (RN), Brazil between 2007 and 2020. We applied a hierarchical Bayesian approach to estimate municipality-specific relative risk of VL across space and time. The results show evidence that lower socioeconomic status is connected to higher municipality-specific VL risk. Overall, estimates reveal spatially heterogeneous VL risks in RN, with a high probability that VL risk for municipalities within the West Potiguar mesoregion are more than double the expected VL risk. Additionally, given the data available, results indicate there is a high probability of increasing VL risk in the municipalities of Natal, Patu and Pau dos Ferros. These findings demonstrate opportunities for municipality-specific public health policy interventions and warrant future research on identifying epidemiological drivers in at-risk regions.

Phlebotomine Sandfly (Diptera: Psychodidae) Fauna and The Association Between Climatic Variables and The Abundance of Lutzomyia longipalpis sensu lato in an Intense Transmission Area for Visceral Leishmaniasis in Central Western Brazil

The presence, abundance, and distribution of sandflies are strongly influenced by climate and environmental changes. This study aimed to describe the sandfly fauna in an intense transmission area for visceral leishmaniasis and to evaluate the association between the abundance of Lutzomyia longipalpis sensu lato (Lutz & Neiva 1912) (Diptera: Psychodidae) and climatic variables. Captures were carried out 2 yr (July 2017 to June 2019) with automatic light traps in 16 sites of the urban area of Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul state. The temperature (°C), relative humidity (%), precipitation (mm3), and wind speed (km/h) were obtained by a public domain database. The Wilcoxon test compared the absolute frequencies of the species by sex. The association between climatic variables and the absolute frequency of Lu. longipalpis s.l. was assessed using the Spearman's correlation coefficient. A total of 1,572 sandflies into four species were captured. Lutzomyia longipalpis s.l. was the most abundant species and presented a significant correlation with the average temperature, humidity, and wind speed in different periods. Lutzomyia longipalpis s.l. was captured in all months, showing its plasticity in diverse weather conditions. We emphasize the importance of regular monitoring of vectors and human and canine cases, providing data for surveillance and control actions to continue to be carried out in the municipality.

Leishmania infantum infecting the carnivore Nasua nasua from urban forest fragments in an endemic area of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazilian Midwest

Introduction

The aim of the present study was to investigate the occurrence of Leishmania infantum in South American coatis inhabiting two forest fragments in Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, Midwest region of Brazil, an endemic area of human and canine visceral leishmaniasis (VL).

Material and methods

A total of 110 South American coatis were sampled in the conservation unit "Parque Estadual do Prosa" (PEP) and in the residential area "Vila da Base Aérea" (VBA) from March 2018 to April 2019. As a longitudinal study that include up to six recaptures of the same individual, a total of 190 capture events were obtained. Blood, bone marrow and skin samples were obtained for parasitological (axenic culture), serological (Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay - ELISA and Dual-path Platform immunoassay - DPP^® CVL) and molecular diagnostic assays (targeting kDNA for Leishmania spp. and L. infantum; and HSP70 followed by sequence analysis).

Results

Seropositivity for L. infantum was found in 33 individuals, six in PEP and 27 in VBA. Furthermore, L. infantum was detected by molecular analysis in 16 individuals, seven from PEP and nine from VBA. We also isolated L. infantum from bone marrow of one individual and detected a single positive skin sample in molecular assay from other individual, both from VBA.

Discussion

An overall infection rate of 36.4% (40/110) was observed, significantly higher in the VBA (49.1%) than in the PEP (21.6%), probably because VBA presents: (i) a large number of resident dogs and chickens that would be attracting sandflies; (ii) a denser population of this wild mammal species; and (iii) physical barriers and a lack of functional connectivity in the surroundings, preventing these animals to disperse out. We conclude that South American coati populations living in urban forest fragments of Campo Grande are affected by the epidemiological scenario of VL, known to involve dogs, vectors and humans. We highlight the importance of investigate the parasitism by L. infantum in this and other potential L. infantum reservoirs that inhabit urbanized regions endemic to VL.