Systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies of long term outdoor nitrogen dioxide exposure and mortality

Factors influencing spatiotemporal variability of NO2 concentration in urban area: a GIS and remote sensing-based approach

The growing global attention on urban air quality underscores the need to understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and its environmental and anthropogenic factors, particularly in cities like Dhaka (Gazipur), Bangladesh, which suffers from some of the world's worst air quality. This study analysed NO2 concentrations in Gazipur from 2019 to 2022 using Sentinel-5P TROPOMI data on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. Correlations and regression analysis were done between NO2 levels and various environmental factors, including land surface temperature (LST), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), land use and land cover (LULC), population density, road density, settlement density, and industry density. The results reveal significant seasonal variations. The highest annual mean NO2 concentration (3.1 × 10-4 mol/ m2)was recorded for winter 2021, and the lowest (1.1 × 10-4 mol/m2) was for monsoon 2022. The study demonstrates a significant positive correlation between NO2 concentrations and LST (0.47), road density (0.55), settlement density (0.44), and industrial density (0.35) and a negative correlation with NDVI (- 0.4). Regression analysis revealed that NO2 concentrations were positively associated with land surface temperature (LST; β = 0.02, R2 = 0.22), road density (β = 0.002, R2 = 0.30), settlement density (β = 0.002, R2 = 0.19), and industrial density (β = 0.007, R2 = 0.12), while a negative association was observed with NDVI (β = - 0.28, R2 = 0.16). This research offers critical insights for policymakers and urban planners, advocating for enhanced green infrastructure, stringent emission controls, and sustainable urban development strategies to mitigate air pollution in Gazipur. Our methodological approach and findings contribute to the broader discourse on urban air quality management in developing countries.

Environmental burden of disease resulting from long-term nitrogen dioxide exposure in Germany

BACKGROUND

Exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular, respiratory, and other diseases and health outcomes. Although NO2 emissions have decreased in Germany, concentrations currently observed still pose a threat to population health. The aim of this study is to estimate the environmental burden of disease (EBD) resulting from long-term NO2 exposure in Germany from 2010 to 2021.

METHODS

To estimate the attributable disease burden, World Health Organization's EBD approach was used. We first conducted a systematic literature review to identify exposure-response functions (ERFs) which mathematically represent the association between NO2 exposure and the health outcomes: asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), ischemic heart disease, lung cancer, stroke, and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. Then, we estimated the years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD) and, where possible, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to these health outcomes in Germany, using mostly publicly available data. In a third step, using the ERFs and modelled ambient NO2 exposure data, the fraction of the disease burden attributable to NO2 exposure was estimated for each health outcome and year, stratified by sex.

RESULTS

The systematic review yielded recent ERFs for some exposure-outcome pairs, but not always for both mortality and morbidity outcomes. A full DALY calculation was possible for COPD and T2DM. For the other outcomes, either only YLL or YLD were calculated. Summing up the estimated YLD and YLL of all outcomes, the burden of disease due to NO2 exposure in Germany decreased from 261,503 (95% UI 69,290-489,273) lost healthy years in 2010 to 100,032 (95% UI 24,558-191,715) in 2021.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the burden of disease attributable to NO2 exposure decreased from 2010 to 2021, NO2 still poses a threat to population health in Germany. While the current legal concentration limit was generally not exceeded in Germany in 2021, stricter new values proposed by WHO were frequently surpassed. When comparing the results to a previous assessment, it was obvious how strongly different input data impact the results. Transparent reporting of input data and discussing potential challenges when interpreting EBD results are critical.

Projected health benefits of air pollution reductions in a Swedish population

BACKGROUND

A large part of the Swedish population is exposed to higher levels of air pollution than the health-centered air quality guidelines recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO).

AIM

The aim of the study was to illustrate the potential health benefits of cleaner air in Sweden by conducting a comprehensive health impact assessment, using a population sample of 100,000 individuals representing the country's demographics.

METHODS

Exposure-response functions for various health outcomes were derived from epidemiological literature, mainly from systematic reviews and low-exposure settings. Two hypothetical scenarios were studied: a 1 µg/m3 decrease in particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5µm (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and a reduction in PM2.5 or NO2 from average exposure corresponding to Sweden's Clean Air objectives to WHO's air quality guidelines.

RESULTS

The findings demonstrated that even a modest decrease in air pollution concentrations can yield significant health benefits. For example, reducing PM2.5 by 1 µg/m3 was projected to correspond to a 1% to 2% decrease in mortality, a 2% reduction in myocardial infarction cases, a 4% decrease in stroke incidence, a 2% decline in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and a 1% decreases in lung cancer and type 2 diabetes annually. Moreover, this reduction is estimated to lower childhood asthma cases, incidences of hypertension during pregnancy, and premature births by 3%, 3% and 2%, respectively, each year.

CONCLUSIONS

The results highlighted that even minor enhancements in air quality would lead to substantial improvements in public health.

Air pollution and kidney cancer risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Although several risk factors of kidney cancer have already been well-addressed, many remain underappreciated, such as chronic exposure to air pollution. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to assess the association between air pollutant exposure and the risk of kidney cancer.

METHODS

With an exhaustive search equation including keywords related to air pollution and kidney cancer on EMBASE, PubMed, Web of science, Cochrane Library and CINAHL database, we identified all relevant articles published before March 23rd, 2023 (Prospero registration number: CRD42020187956). Using random-effects meta-analysis, we present pooled hazard ratios (with their respective 95% confidence interval) associated with a 10 µg/m3 increase in each pollutant level. Heterogeneity was quantified by the I2 statistic. Risks of methodological and publication bias were also both assessed using appropriate tools.

RESULTS

Of the 1919 records identified, our review included 19 articles (13 cohort, 5 registry-based and 1 case-control studies), of which 9 were suitable for the meta-analysis. We found a significantly increased risk of kidney cancer incidence for a 10 μg/m3 elevation of both particulate matter of less than 10 µm (PM10) (HR = 1.29 [1.10; 1.51], I2 = 0%, p = 0.002) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) (HR = 1.10 [1.03; 1.18], I2 = 20%, p = 0.004). Secondary analyses also suggest an increased risk of kidney cancer-related morbidity-mortality associated with PM10 exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, our findings suggest a potential association between exposure to increased levels of PM10 and NO2 and the risk of kidney cancer. These results should nonetheless be interpreted with caution due to the limited number of included studies and their significant risk of methodological bias.

Excess deaths and loss of life expectancy attributed to long-term NO2 exposure in the Chinese elderly

BACKGROUND

Evidence linking nitrogen dioxide (NO2) air pollution to life span of high-vulnerability older adults is extensively scarce in low- and middle-income countries. This study seeks to quantify mortality risk, excess deaths, and loss of life expectancy (LLE) associated with long-term exposure to NO2 among elderly individuals in China.

METHODS

A nationwide dynamic cohort of 20352 respondents ≥65 years old were enrolled from the China Longitudinal Health and Longevity Survey during 2005-2018. Residential exposures to NO2 and co-pollutants were assessed by well-validated spatiotemporal prediction models. A Cox regression model with time-dependent covariates was utilized to quantify the association of all-cause mortality with NO2 exposure, controlling for confounders such as demographics, lifestyle, health status, and ambient temperature. NO2-attributable deaths and LLE were evaluated for the years 2010 and 2020 based on the pooled NO2-mortality relation derived from multi-national cohort investigations. Decomposition analyses were conducted to dissociate net shift in NO2-related deaths between 2010 and 2020 into four primary contributing factors.

RESULTS

A total of 14313 deaths were recorded during follow-up of approximately 100 hundred person-years (median 3.6 years). We observed an approximately linear relationship (nonlinear P = 0.882) of NO2 exposure with all-cause death across a broad range from 6.6 to 95.7 μg/m3. Every 10-μg/m3 rise in yearly average NO2 concentration was linked to a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.045 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.031-1.059). In the updated meta-analysis of this study and 9 existing cohorts, we estimated a pooled HR of 1.043 (95% CI: 1.023-1.063) for each 10-μg/m3 growth in NO2. Reaching a 10-μg/m3 counterfactual target of NO2 concentration in China could avoid 0.33 (95% empirical CI: 0.19-0.49) million premature deaths and an LLE of 0.40 (95% empirical CI: 0.23-0.59) years in 2010, which greatly dropped to 0.24 (95% empirical CI: 0.14-0.36) million deaths and 0.21 (95% empirical CI: 0.12-0.31) years of LLE in 2020. The net fall in NO2-attributable deaths (-26.8%) between 2010 and 2020 was primarily driven by the declines in both NO2 concentration (-41.6%) and mortality rate (-27.1%) under population growth (+41.0%) and age structure transition (+0.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings provide national evidence for increased risk of premature death and loss of life expectancy attributed to later-life NO2 exposure among the elderly in China. In an accelerated aging society, strengthened clean air actions should be formulated to minimize the health burden and regional inequality in NO2-attributable mortality.

Benzene Exposure and Lung Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Human Studies

Lung cancer is a leading cause of death with nearly 1.8 million deaths estimated worldwide in 2020. Although benzene is classified as a human carcinogen (Group 1) on the basis of its association with acute myeloid/non-lymphocytic leukaemia, there is still limited evidence that it may influence lung cancer risk. This study examined the potential link between benzene exposure and risk of lung cancer using a systematic review of epidemiological studies and meta-analysis. We searched through PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus databases up to 10 February 2023 to identify all articles on the association between benzene exposure and lung cancer (incidence or prevalence) and/or mortality. We extracted the risk estimates of the highest and the lowest reported categories of benzene exposure and conducted a meta-analysis using a random-effects model. Heterogeneity and publication bias were analysed using an I2 test and funnel plots asymmetry, respectively. Twenty-one studies were included in the final analysis, with a total of 10,750 lung cancer cases and 2899 lung cancer deaths. Overall, risk estimates of lung cancer prevalence and mortality in association with benzene exposure were 1.20 (n = 14; 95% CI 1.05-1.37) and 1.15 (n = 13; 95% CI 1.02-1.30), respectively. In all cases, heterogeneity was quite large, while no significant publication bias was observed. When only studies that adjusted for smoking habit were selected, the risk for lung cancer increased by up to 34% (n = 9; 95% CI 1.10-1.64). Our data, which show a strong association between benzene exposure and lung cancer risk, may have important public health implications. However, further studies are needed to identify the lung cancer risk associated with benzene exposure considering different smoking conditions.

Potential causal links of long-term air pollution with lung cancer incidence: From the perspectives of mortality and hospital admission in a large cohort study in southern China

Evidence on the potential causal links of long-term air pollution exposure with lung cancer incidence (reflected by mortality and hospital admission) was limited, especially based on large cohorts. We examined the relationship between lung cancer and long-term exposure to particulate matter (PM, including PM2.5 , PM10 and PM10-2.5 ) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2 ) among a large cohort of general Chinese adults using causal inference approaches. The study included 575 592 participants who were followed up for an average of 8.2 years. The yearly exposure of PM and NO2 was estimated through satellite-based random forest approaches and the ordinary kriging method, respectively. Marginal structural Cox models were used to examine hazard ratios (HRs) of mortality and hospital admission due to lung cancer following air pollution exposure, adjusting for potential confounders. The HRs of mortality due to lung cancer were 1.042 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.033-1.052), 1.032 (95% CI:1.024-1.041) and 1.052 (95% CI:1.041-1.063) for each 1 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 , PM10 and NO2 , respectively. In addition, we observed statistically significant effects of PMs on hospital admission due to lung cancer. The HRs (95%CI) were 1.110 (1.027-1.201), 1.067 (1.020-1.115) and 1.079 (1.010-1.153) for every 1 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 , PM10 , PM10-2.5 , respectively. Furthermore, we found larger effect estimates among the elderly and those who exercised more frequently. We provided the most comprehensive evidence of the potential causal links between two outcomes of lung cancer and long-term air pollution exposure. Relevant policies should be developed, with special attention to protecting the vulnerable groups of the population.

Air pollution benefits from reduced on-road activity due to COVID-19 in the United States

On-road transportation is one of the largest contributors to air pollution in the United States. The COVID-19 pandemic provided the unintended experiment of reduced on-road emissions' impacts on air pollution due to lockdowns across the United States. Studies have quantified on-road transportation's impact on fine particulate matter (PM2.5)-attributable and ozone (O3)-attributable adverse health outcomes in the United States, and other studies have quantified air pollution-attributable health outcome reductions due to COVID-19-related lockdowns. We aim to quantify the PM2.5-attributable, O3-attributable, and nitrogen dioxide (NO2)-attributable adverse health outcomes from traffic emissions as well as the air pollution benefits due to reduced on-road activity during the pandemic in 2020. We estimate 79,400 (95% CI 46,100-121,000) premature mortalities each year due to on-road-attributable PM2.5, O3, and NO2. We further break down the impacts by pollutant and vehicle types (passenger [PAS] vs. freight [FRT] vehicles). We estimate PAS vehicles to be responsible for 63% of total impacts and FRT vehicles 37%. Nitrogen oxide (NOX) emissions from these vehicles are responsible for 78% of total impacts as it is a precursor for PM2.5 and O3. Utilizing annual vehicle miles traveled reductions in 2020, we estimate that 9,300 (5,500-14,000) deaths from air pollution were avoided in 2020 due to the state-specific reductions in on-road activity across the continental United States. By quantifying the air pollution public health benefits from lockdown-related reductions in on-road emissions, the results from this study stress the need for continued emission mitigation policies, like the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) recently proposed NOX standards for heavy-duty vehicles, to mitigate on-road transportation's public health impact.

All-Cause NO2-Attributable Mortality Burden and Associated Racial and Ethnic Disparities in the United States

Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is a regulated pollutant that is associated with numerous health impacts. Recent advances in epidemiology indicate high confidence linking NO2 exposure with increased mortality, an association that recent studies suggest persists even at concentrations below regulatory thresholds. While large disparities in NO2 exposure among population subgroups have been reported, U.S. NO2-attributable mortality rates and their disparities remain unquantified. Here we provide the first estimate of NO2-attributable all-cause mortality across the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) at the census tract-level. We leverage fine-scale, satellite-informed, land use regression model NO2 concentrations and census tract-level baseline mortality data to characterize the associated disparities among different racial/ethnic subgroups. Across CONUS, we estimate that the NO2-attributable all-cause mortality is ∼170,850 (95% confidence interval: 43,970, 251,330) premature deaths yr-1 with large variability across census tracts and within individual cities. Additionally, we find that higher NO2 concentrations and underlying susceptibilities for predominately Black communities lead to NO2-attributable mortality rates that are ∼47% higher compared to CONUS-wide average rates. Our results highlight the substantial U.S. NO2 mortality burden, particularly in marginalized communities, and motivate adoption of more stringent standards to protect public health.

Urbanicity and psychotic disorders: Facts and hypotheses

In the present qualitative literature review, we summarise data on psychotic disorders and urbanicity, focusing particularly on recent findings. Longitudinal studies of the impact of urbanicity on the risk for psychotic disorders have consistently shown a significant association, with a relative risk between 2 and 2.5. However, most of the original studies were conducted in Western Europe, and no incidence studies were conducted in low- and middle-income countries. European studies suggest that neighbourhood-level social fragmentation and social capital may partly explain this association. Exposure to air pollution (positive association) and green space (negative association) may also be part of the explanation, but to date, available data do not make it possible to conclude if they act independently from urbanicity, or as part of the effect of urbanicity on psychotic disorders. Finally, several studies have consistently shown significant associations between the polygenic risk score for schizophrenia and urbanicity, with several possible explanations (pleiotropic effects, results of prodromic symptoms, or selection/intergenerational hypothesis). Thus, more studies are needed to understand the factors that explain the association between urbanicity and the risk of psychotic disorders. Further studies should account for the interdependence and/or interactions of different psychosocial and physical exposures (as well as gene-environment interactions), and explore this association in low- and middle-income countries.

The built environment and cardiovascular disease: an umbrella review and meta-meta-analysis

AIMS

To provide a comprehensive overview of the current evidence on objectively measured neighbourhood built environment exposures in relation to cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in adults.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We searched seven databases for systematic reviews on associations between objectively measured long-term built environmental exposures, covering at least one domain (i.e. outdoor air pollution, food environment, physical activity environment like greenspace and walkability, urbanization, light pollution, residential noise, and ambient temperature), and CVD events in adults. Two authors extracted summary data and assessed the risk of bias independently. Robustness of evidence was rated based on statistical heterogeneity, small-study effect, and excess significance bias. Meta-meta-analyses were conducted to combine the meta-analysis results from reviews with comparable exposure and outcome within each domain. From the 3304 initial hits, 51 systematic reviews were included, covering 5 domains and including 179 pooled estimates. There was strong evidence of the associations between increased air pollutants (especially PM2.5 exposure) and increased residential noise with greater risk of CVD. Highly suggestive evidence was found for an association between increased ambient temperature and greater risk of CVD. Systematic reviews on physical activity environment, food environment, light pollution, and urbanization in relation to CVD were scarce or lacking.

CONCLUSION

Air pollutants, increased noise levels, temperature, and greenspace were associated with CVD outcomes. Standardizing design and exposure assessments may foster the synthesis of evidence. Other crucial research gaps concern the lack of prospective study designs and lack of evidence from low-to-middle-income countries (LMICs).

REGISTRATION

PROSPERO: CRD42021246580.

The Long-Term Mortality Effects Associated with Exposure to Particles and NOx in the Malmö Diet and Cancer Cohort

In this study, the long-term mortality effects associated with exposure to PM10 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than or equal to 10 µm), PM2.5 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than or equal to 2.5 µm), BC (black carbon), and NOx (nitrogen oxides) were analyzed in a cohort in southern Sweden during the period from 1991 to 2016. Participants (those residing in Malmö, Sweden, born between 1923 and 1950) were randomly recruited from 1991 to 1996. At enrollment, 30,438 participants underwent a health screening, which consisted of questionnaires about lifestyle and diet, a clinical examination, and blood sampling. Mortality data were retrieved from the Swedish National Cause of Death Register. The modeled concentrations of PM10, PM2.5, BC, and NOx at the cohort participants' home addresses were used to assess air pollution exposure. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the associations between long-term exposure to PM10, PM2.5, BC, and NOx and the time until death among the participants during the period from 1991 to 2016. The hazard ratios (HRs) associated with an interquartile range (IQR) increase in each air pollutant were calculated based on the exposure lag windows of the same year (lag0), 1-5 years (lag1-5), and 6-10 years (lag6-10). Three models were used with varying adjustments for possible confounders including both single-pollutant estimates and two-pollutant estimates. With adjustments for all covariates, the HRs for PM10, PM2.5, BC, and NOx in the single-pollutant models at lag1-5 were 1.06 (95% CI: 1.02-1.11), 1.01 (95% CI: 0.95-1.08), 1.07 (95% CI: 1.04-1.11), and 1.11 (95% CI: 1.07-1.16) per IQR increase, respectively. The HRs, in most cases, decreased with the inclusion of a larger number of covariates in the models. The most robust associations were shown for NOx, with statistically significant positive HRs in all the models. An overall conclusion is that road traffic-related pollutants had a significant association with mortality in the cohort.

Inequality in the Distribution of Air Pollution Attributable Mortality Within Canadian Cities

Recent studies have identified inequality in the distribution of air pollution attributable health impacts, but to our knowledge this has not been examined in Canadian cities. We evaluated the extent and sources of inequality in air pollution attributable mortality at the census tract (CT) level in seven of Canada's largest cities. We first regressed fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) attributable mortality against the neighborhood (CT) level prevalence of age 65 and older, low income, low educational attainment, and identification as an Indigenous (First Nations, Métis, Inuit) or Black person, accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We next examined the distribution of baseline mortality rates, PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations, and attributable mortality by neighborhood (CT) level prevalence of these characteristics, calculating the concentration index, Atkinson index, and Gini coefficient. Finally, we conducted a counterfactual analysis of the impact of reducing baseline mortality rates and air pollution concentrations on inequality in air pollution attributable mortality. Regression results indicated that CTs with a higher prevalence of low income and Indigenous identity had significantly higher air pollution attributable mortality. Concentration index, Atkinson index, and Gini coefficient values revealed different degrees of inequality among the cities. Counterfactual analysis indicated that inequality in air pollution attributable mortality tended to be driven more by baseline mortality inequalities than exposure inequalities. Reducing inequality in air pollution attributable mortality requires reducing disparities in both baseline mortality and air pollution exposure.

Concomitant exposure to air pollution, green space, and noise and risk of stroke: a cohort study from Denmark

Background

Air pollution, road traffic noise, and green space are correlated factors, associated with risk of stroke. We investigated their independent relationship with stroke in multi-exposure analyses and estimated their cumulative stroke burden.

Methods

For all persons, ≥50 years of age and living in Denmark from 2005 to 2017, we established complete address histories and estimated running 5-year mean exposure to fine particles (PM_2.5), ultrafine particles, elemental carbon, nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and road traffic noise at the most, and least exposed façade. For air pollutants, we estimated total, and non-traffic contributions. Green space around the residence was estimated from land use maps. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence limits (CL) were estimated with Cox proportional hazards models and used to calculate cumulative risk indices (CRI). We adjusted for the individual and sociodemographic covariates available in our dataset (which did not include information about individual life styles and medical conditions).

Findings

The cohort accumulated 18,344,976 years of follow-up and 94,256 cases of stroke. All exposures were associated with risk of stroke in single pollutant models. In multi-pollutant analyses, only PM_2.5 (HR: 1.058, 95% CI: 1.040-1.075) and noise at most exposed façade (HR: 1.033, 95% CI: 1.024-1.042) were independently associated with a higher risk of stroke. Both noise and air pollution contributed substantially to the CRI (1.103, 95% CI: 1.092-1.114) in the model with noise, green space, and total PM_2.5 concentrations.

Interpretation

Environmental exposure to air pollution and noise were both independently associated with risk of stroke.

Funding

Health Effects Institute (HEI) (Assistance Award No. R-82811201).

Long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution and asthma in low-and middle-income countries: A systematic review protocol

BACKGROUND

Several epidemiological studies have examined the risk of asthma and respiratory diseases in association with long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution. However, little is known regarding the adverse effects of long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution on the development of these outcomes in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Our study aims to investigate the association between long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution and asthma and respiratory diseases in LMICs through a systematic review with meta-analysis.

METHODS

This systematic review and meta-analysis will follow the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) checklist and flowchart guidelines. The inclusion criteria that will be used in our study are 1) Original research articles with full text in English; 2) Studies including adult humans; 3) Studies with long-term air pollution assessment in LMICs, air pollutants including nitrogen oxide (NO2), sulfur oxide (SO2), particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10), carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3); 4) cohort and cross-sectional studies; 5) Studies reporting associations between air pollution and asthma and respiratory symptoms. A comprehensive search strategy will be used to identify studies published up till August 2022 and indexed in Embase, Medline, and Web of Science. Three reviewers will independently screen records retrieved from the database searches. Where there are enough studies with similar exposure and outcomes, we will calculate, and report pooled effect estimates using meta-analysis.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42022311326.

DISCUSSION

Findings from the health effects of long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution may be of importance for policymakers. This review will also identify any gaps in the current literature on this topic in LMICs and provide direction for future research.

Individual and joint associations of long-term exposure to air pollutants and cardiopulmonary mortality: a 22-year cohort study in Northern China

Background

Evidence on the associations between long-term exposure to multiple air pollutants and cardiopulmonary mortality is limited, especially for developing regions with higher pollutant levels. We aimed to characterise the individual and joint (multi-pollutant) associations of long-term exposure to air pollutants with cardiopulmonary mortality, and to identify air pollutant that primarily contributes to the mortality risk.

Methods

We followed 37,442 participants with a mean age of 43.5 years in four cities in northern China (Tianjin, Shenyang, Taiyuan, and Rizhao) from January 1998 to December 2019. Annual particulate matter (PM) with diameters ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5), ≤10 μm (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) were estimated using daily average values from satellite-derived machine learning models and monitoring stations. Time-varying Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate the individual association between air pollutants and mortality from non-accidental causes, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), non-malignant respiratory diseases (RDs) and lung cancer, accounting for demographic and socioeconomic factors. Effect modifications by age, sex, income and education level were also examined. Quantile-based g-Computation integrated with time-to-event data was additionally applied to evaluate the co-effects and the relative weight of contributions for air pollutants.

Findings

During 785,807 person-years of follow-up, 5812 (15.5%) died from non-accidental causes, among which 2932 (7.8%) were from all CVDs, 479 (1.3%) from non-malignant RDs, and 552 (1.4%) from lung cancer. Long-term exposure to PM10 (mean [baseline]: 136.5 μg/m3), PM2.5 (mean [baseline]: 70.2 μg/m3), SO2 (mean [baseline]: 113.0 μg/m3) and NO2 (mean [baseline]: 39.2 μg/m3) were adversely and consistently associated with all mortality outcomes. A 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was associated with higher mortality from non-accidental causes (hazard ratio 1.20; 95% confidence interval 1.17-1.23), CVDs (1.23; 1.19-1.28), non-malignant RDs (1.37; 1.25-1.49) and lung cancer (1.14; 1.05-1.23). A monotonically increasing curve with linear or supra-linear shape with no evidence of a threshold was observed for the exposure-response relationship of mortality with individual or joint exposure to air pollutants. PM2.5 consistently contributed most to the elevated mortality risks related to air pollutant mixture, followed by SO2 or PM10.

Interpretation

There was a strong and positive association of long-term individual and joint exposure to PM10, PM2.5, SO2, and NO2 with mortalities from non-accidental causes, CVDs, non-malignant RDs and lung cancer in high-exposure settings, with PM2.5 potentially being the main contributor. The shapes of associations were consistent with a linear or supra-linear exposure-response relationship, with no lower threshold observed within the range of concentrations in this study.

Funding

National Key Research and Development Program of China, the China Scholarship Council, the National Natural Science Foundation of China, Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province.

Long-term exposure to elemental components of fine particulate matter and all-natural and cause-specific mortality in a Danish nationwide administrative cohort study

BACKGROUND

Fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is a well-recognized risk factor for premature death. However, evidence on which PM_2.5 components are most relevant is unclear.

METHODS

We evaluated the associations between mortality and long-term exposure to eight PM_2.5 elemental components [copper (Cu), iron (Fe), zinc (Zn), sulfur (S), nickel (Ni), vanadium (V), silicon (Si), and potassium (K)]. Studied outcomes included death from diabetes, chronic kidney disease (CKD), dementia, and psychiatric disorders as well as all-natural causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory diseases (RD), and lung cancer. We followed all residents in Denmark (aged ≥30 years) from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017. We used European-wide land-use regression models at a 100 × 100 m scale to estimate the residential annual mean levels of exposure to PM_2.5 components. The models were developed with supervised linear regression (SLR) and random forest (RF). The associations were evaluated by Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for individual- and area-level socioeconomic factors and total PM_2.5 mass.

RESULTS

Of 3,081,244 individuals, we observed 803,373 death from natural causes during follow-up. We found significant positive associations between all-natural mortality with Si and K from both exposure modeling approaches (hazard ratios; 95% confidence intervals per interquartile range increase): SLR-Si (1.04; 1.03-1.05), RF-Si (1.01; 1.00-1.02), SLR-K (1.03; 1.02-1.04), and RF-K (1.06; 1.05-1.07). Strong associations of K and Si were detected with most causes of mortality except CKD and K, and diabetes and Si (the strongest associations for psychiatric disorders mortality). In addition, Fe was relevant for mortality from RD, lung cancer, CKD, and psychiatric disorders; Zn with mortality from CKD, RD, and lung cancer, and; Ni and V with lung cancer mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

We present novel results of the relevance of different PM_2.5 components for different causes of death, with K and Si seeming to be most consistently associated with mortality in Denmark.

Ambient Air Pollution and All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality in an Analysis of Asian Cohorts

INTRODUCTION

Much of what is currently known about the adverse effects of ambient air pollution comes from studies conducted in high-income regions, with relatively low air pollution levels. The aim of the current project is to examine the relationship between exposure to ambient air pollution (as predicted from satellite-based models) and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in several Asian cohorts.

METHODS

Cohorts were recruited from the Asia Cohort Consortium (ACC). The geocoded residences of participants were assigned levels of ambient particulate material with aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) utilizing global satellite-derived models and assigned for the year of enrollment (or closest available year). The association between ambient exposure and mortality was established with Cox proportional hazard models, after adjustment for common confounders. Both single- and two-pollutant models were generated. Model robustness was evaluated, and hazard ratios were calculated for each cohort separately and combined via random effect meta-analysis for pooled risk estimates.

RESULTS

Six cohort studies from the ACC participated: the Community-based Cancer Screening Program (CBCSCP, Taiwan), the Golestan Cohort Study (Iran), the Health Effects for Arsenic Longitudinal Study (HEALS, Bangladesh), the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study (JPHC), the Korean Multi-center Cancer Cohort Study (KMCC), and the Mumbai Cohort Study (MCS, India). The cohorts represented over 340,000 participants.

Mean exposures to PM2.5 ranged from 8 to 58 μg/m3. Mean exposures to NO2 ranged from 7 to 23 ppb. For PM2.5, a positive, borderline nonsignificant relationship was observed between PM2.5 and cardiovascular mortality. Other relationships with PM2.5 tended toward the null in meta-analysis. For NO2, an overall positive relationship was observed between exposure to NO2 and all cancers and lung cancer. A borderline association between NO2 and nonmalignant lung disease was also observed. The findings within individual cohorts remained consistent across a variety of subgroups and alternative analyses, including two-pollutant models.

CONCLUSIONS

In a pooled examination of cohort studies across Asia, ambient PM2.5 exposure appears to be associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular mortality and ambient NO2 exposure is associated with an increased cancer (and lung cancer) mortality. This project has shown that satellite-derived models of pollution can be used in examinations of mortality risk in areas with either incomplete or missing air pollution monitoring.

Long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution and non-accidental mortality: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The health effects of traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) continue to be of important public health interest across the globe. Following its 2010 review, the Health Effects Institute appointed a new expert Panel to systematically evaluate the epidemiological evidence regarding the associations between long-term exposure to TRAP and selected health outcomes. This paper describes the main findings of the systematic review on non-accidental mortality.

METHODS

The Panel used a systematic approach to conduct the review. An extensive search was conducted of literature published between 1980 and 2019. A new exposure framework was developed to determine whether a study was sufficiently specific to TRAP, which included studies beyond the near-roadway environment. We performed random-effects meta-analysis when at least three estimates were available of an association between a specific exposure and outcome. We evaluated confidence in the evidence using a modified Office of Health Assessment and Translation (OHAT) approach, supplemented with a broader narrative synthesis.

RESULTS

Thirty-six cohort studies were included. Virtually all studies adjusted for a large number of individual and area-level covariates-including smoking, body mass index, and individual and area-level socioeconomic status-and were judged at a low or moderate risk for bias. Most studies were conducted in North America and Europe, and a few were based in Asia and Australia. The meta-analytic summary estimates for nitrogen dioxide, elemental carbon and fine particulate matter-pollutants with more than 10 studies-were 1.04 (95% CI 1.01, 1.06), 1.02 (1.00, 1.04) and 1.03 (1.01, 1.05) per 10, 1 and 5 µg/m³, respectively. Effect estimates are interpreted as the relative risk of mortality when the exposure differs with the selected increment. The confidence in the evidence for these pollutants was judged as high, because of upgrades for monotonic exposure-response and consistency across populations. The consistent findings across geographical regions, exposure assessment methods and confounder adjustment resulted in a high confidence rating using a narrative approach as well.

CONCLUSIONS

The overall confidence in the evidence for a positive association between long-term exposure to TRAP and non-accidental mortality was high.

Premature mortality attributable to NO2 exposure in cities and the role of built environment: A global analysis

BACKGROUND

Environmental risks accumulate in cities, including polluted air and health disparities, but these risks can be reduced through scientific city planning. The purpose of this study was to investigate the global burden of premature mortality attributable to NO₂ exposure in urban areas and the role of the built environment in this regard.

METHODS

An approach based on health impact assessment was used to estimate the premature mortality burdens associated with NO₂ exposure in 13,169 urban areas around the world using globally gridded NO₂ and population estimates, baseline mortality, and epidemiologically derived exposure-response functions. We used the most recent WHO recommended value (i.e.,10 μg/m³) as a counterfactual concentration. Finally, the relationship between the characteristics of the built environment at the city level and the burden of NO₂-related mortality was evaluated.

RESULTS

Worldwide, 549,715(95%CI: 276204-815,023) cases of death attributable to NO₂ exposure in urban areas could be prevented if compliance with the latest WHO guideline, accounting for 2.7 % (95%CI:1.4 %-4.0 %) of total mortalities in 2019. Across cities around the world, the age-standardized mortality rate (per 100,000 people) attributable to NO₂ exposure ranged from 51.3 (95%CI:25.8-76.0) in Central Asia to 3.4(95%CI: 1.7-5.1) in Oceania. Although there was a significant decrease in premature mortality attributable to NO₂ exposure globally, considerable regional heterogeneity exists, with cities in Central Asia and Andean Latin America in particular exhibiting an upward trend. Further, we discovered a positive association between population density and street connectivity with mortality attributable to NO₂. While the increase in green and blue space were significantly associated with a lower NO₂-associated mortality.

CONCLUSION

The findings of this study provided a comprehensive understanding of the premature mortality burden due to NO₂ in cities throughout the world and the role that urban planning policies can play in reducing the health burden associated with air pollution.

Ambient NO2 exposure hinders long-term survival of Chinese middle-aged and older adults

INTRODUCTION

Serval longitudinal investigations have reported relationships between long-term nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) exposure and mortality. In developing countries such as China, however, the cohort evidence was extremely rare. In this study, we aimed to establish the concentration-response relationship between long-term exposure to NO₂ and mortality in Chinese adults.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study followed up from 2011 to 2018, by enrolling 15,440 participants aged ≥45 years from 28 provincial regions of China. NO₂ concentration estimates were derived from high-quality spatiotemporal datasets developed by machine learning methods and were assigned for each participant according to their residential cities. We applied Cox proportional hazard models with time-varying exposures to assess the association of all-cause death with long-term NO₂ exposure. Subgroup analyses were performed to identify effect modifications.

RESULTS

A total of 1646 death events occurred during 105,478.5 person-years' follow-up (median 7.1 years). No evident violation for linear NO₂-mortality relationship (P nonlinear = 0.332) was observed at a range of 7.4-45.0 μg/m³. Per 10-μg/m³ rise in NO₂ was associated with an hazard ratio of 1.220 (95% confidence interval: 1.103-1.350) for all-cause mortality. The association between NO₂ and mortality was generally robust after adjusting for co-pollutants including fine particulate matter or/and ozone. Only participants aged 65 and over (1.351 [1.193-1.531]) suffered from increased risks of death associated with NO₂ exposure, and an evident effect modification by age (P = 0.008) was identified. The elevated risk of death induced by NO₂ was also observed in participants living in rural areas and those with elementary school education or below, though effect modifications were non-significant in these subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provided novel evidence that long-term NO₂ exposure could be an independent risk for mortality among Chinese middle-aged and older adults. Our findings highlighted the importance of controlling air pollution induced by vehicle emissions.

Meta analysis of health effects of ambient air pollution exposure in low- and middle-income countries

It is well established that exposure to ambient air pollution affects human health. A majority of literature concentrated on health effects of air pollution in high income countries. Only fewer studies analyzing health effects of air pollution in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) are available. To bridge this gap in literature, this study investigated short term and long-term health impacts of ambient air pollutants focussed in LMICs. We evaluated Total Non-accidental mortality, Respiratory Mortality, Stroke Mortality, Cardio-vascular Mortality, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD) and Lung Cancer Mortality in LMICs particularly. Random Effects Model was utilised to derive overall risk estimate. Relative Risk (RR) estimates per 10 μg/m³ was used as input for model. Subgroup and Sensitivity Analysis by Design and Country was conducted. A total of 152 studies were included for quantitative analysis. We found positive associations between pollutants and Total Non-accidental mortality for PM₁₀ ((RR:1.0043-1.0036), p < 0.0001), NO₂ (RR:1.0222 (1.0111-1.0336), p < 0.0001), SO₂ (RR:1.0107 - (1.0073-1.0140), p < 0.0001), O₃ (RR: 1.0038 (1.0023-1.0053), p < 0.0001) and PM_2.5 (RR: 1.0048 (1.0037-1.0059), p < 0.0001) for every 10 μg/m³ increase. We found positive association between Long-term exposure to PM₁₀ and Total Non-accidental mortality (RR: 1.0430 (1.0278-1.0583), p < 0.0001) We also found statistically significant positive associations between pollutants and Cardiorespiratory and Cardiovascular morbidity. The positive associations persisted when analysed amongst sub-groups. However, the high heterogeneity amongst studies persisted even after performing sub-group analysis. The study has found statistically significant positive associations between short-term and long-term exposure to Ambient air pollution with various health-outcome combinations.

Air Pollution and the Heart: Updated Evidence from Meta-analysis Studies

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Although environmental exposure such as air pollution is detrimental to cardiovascular disease (CVD), the effects of different air pollutants on different CVD endpoints produced variable findings. We provide updated evidence between air pollutants and CVD outcomes including mitigation strategies with meta-analytic evidence.

RECENT FINDINGS

An increased exposure to any class of air pollutants including particulate matter (PM), gas, toxic metals, and disruptive chemicals has been associated with CVD events. Exposure to PM < 2.5 μm has been consistently associated with most heart diseases and stroke as well as CVDs among at-risk individuals. Despite this, there is no clinical approach available for systemic evaluation of air pollution exposure and management. A large number of epidemiological evidence clearly suggests the importance of air pollution prevention and control for reducing the risk of CVDs and mortality. Cost-effective and feasible strategies for air pollution monitoring, screening, and necessary interventions are urgently required among at-risk populations and those living or working, or frequently commuting in polluted areas.

Air pollution, road traffic noise and lack of greenness and risk of type 2 diabetes: A multi-exposure prospective study covering Denmark

OBJECTIVE

Air pollution, road traffic noise and lack of greenness coexist in urban environments and have all been associated with type 2 diabetes. We aimed to investigate how these co-exposures were associated with type 2 diabetes in a multi-exposure perspective.

METHODS

We estimated 5-year residential mean exposure to fine particles (PM_2.5), ultrafine particles (UFP), elemental carbon (EC), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and road traffic noise at the most (LdenMax) and least (LdenMin) exposed facade for all persons aged > 50 years living in Denmark in 2005 to 2017. For each air pollutant, we estimated total concentrations and traffic contributions. Based on land use maps, we estimated proportion of green and non-green space within 150 and 1000 m of all residences. In total, 1.9 million persons were included and 128,358 developed type 2 diabetes during follow-up. We performed analyses using Cox proportional hazards models, with adjustment for individual and neighborhood-level sociodemographic co-variates.

RESULTS

In single-pollutant models, all air pollutants, noise and lack of green space were associated with higher risk of diabetes. In two-, three- and four-pollutant analyses of the air pollutants, only UFP and NO₂ remained associated with higher diabetes risk in all models. LdenMax, LdenMin and the two proxies of green space remained associated with diabetes in two-pollutant models of, respectively, noise and green space. In a multi-pollutant analysis, we found hazard ratios (95 % confidence intervals) per interquartile range of 1.021 (1.005; 1.038) for UFP, 1.012 (0.996; 1.028) for NO₂, 1.022 (1.012; 1.033) for LdenMin, 1.013 (1.004; 1.022) for LdenMax, and 1.038 (1.031; 1.044) and 1.018 (1.010; 1.025) for lack of green space within, respectively, 150 m and 1000 m, and a cumulative risk index of 1.131 (1.113; 1.149).

CONCLUSIONS

Air pollution, road traffic noise and lack of green space were independently associated with higher risk of type 2 diabetes.

Long-Term Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter and the Risk of Chronic Liver Diseases: A Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

Although fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a known carcinogen, evidence of the association between PM2.5 and chronic liver disease is controversial. In the present meta-analysis study, we reviewed epidemiological studies to strengthen evidence for the association between PM2.5 and chronic liver disease. We searched three online databases from 1990 up to 2022. The random-effect model was applied for detection of overall risk estimates. Sixteen eligible studies, including one cross-sectional study, one retrospective cohort study, and 14 prospective cohort studies, fulfilled inclusion criteria with more than 330 thousand participants from 13 countries. Overall risk estimates of chronic liver disease for 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was 1.27 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.19−1.35, p < 0.001). We further analyzed the relationship between PM2.5 exposure and different chronic liver diseases. The results showed that increments in PM2.5 exposure significantly increased the risk of liver cancer, liver cirrhosis, and fatty liver disease (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.14−1.33; HR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.06−1.29; HR = 1.51, 95% CI: 1.09−2.08, respectively). Our meta-analysis indicated long-term exposure to PM2.5 was associated with increased risk of chronic liver disease. Moreover, future researches should be focused on investigating subtypes of chronic liver diseases and specific components of PM2.5.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality in a Danish nationwide administrative cohort study: Beyond mortality from cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer

BACKGROUND

The association between long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality from cardiorespiratory diseases is well established, yet the evidence for other diseases remains limited.

OBJECTIVES

To examine the associations of long-term exposure to air pollution with mortality from diabetes, dementia, psychiatric disorders, chronic kidney disease (CKD), asthma, acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI), as well as mortality from all-natural and cardiorespiratory causes in the Danish nationwide administrative cohort.

METHODS

We followed all residents aged ≥ 30 years (3,083,227) in Denmark from 1 January 2000 until 31 December 2017. Annual mean concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), black carbon (BC), and ozone (warm season) were estimated using European-wide hybrid land-use regression models (100 m × 100 m) and assigned to baseline residential addresses. We used Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate the association between air pollution and mortality, accounting for demographic and socioeconomic factors. We additionally applied indirect adjustment for smoking and body mass index (BMI).

RESULTS

During 47,023,454 person-years of follow-up, 803,881 people died from natural causes. Long-term exposure to PM_2.5 (mean: 12.4 µg/m³), NO₂ (20.3 µg/m³), and/or BC (1.0 × 10^-5/m) was statistically significantly associated with all studied mortality outcomes except CKD. A 5 µg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 was associated with higher mortality from all-natural causes (hazard ratio 1.11; 95% confidence interval 1.09-1.13), cardiovascular disease (1.09; 1.07-1.12), respiratory disease (1.11; 1.07-1.15), lung cancer (1.19; 1.15-1.24), diabetes (1.10; 1.04-1.16), dementia (1.05; 1.00-1.10), psychiatric disorders (1.38; 1.27-1.50), asthma (1.13; 0.94-1.36), and ALRI (1.14; 1.09-1.20). Associations with long-term exposure to ozone (mean: 80.2 µg/m³) were generally negative but became significantly positive for several endpoints in two-pollutant models. Generally, associations were attenuated but remained significant after indirect adjustment for smoking and BMI.

CONCLUSION

Long-term exposure to PM_2.5, NO₂, and/or BC in Denmark were associated with mortality beyond cardiorespiratory diseases, including diabetes, dementia, psychiatric disorders, asthma, and ALRI.

Rapid rise in premature mortality due to anthropogenic air pollution in fast-growing tropical cities from 2005 to 2018

Tropical cities are experiencing rapid growth but lack routine air pollution monitoring to develop prescient air quality policies. Here, we conduct targeted sampling of recent (2000s to 2010s) observations of air pollutants from space-based instruments over 46 fast-growing tropical cities. We quantify significant annual increases in nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) (1 to 14%), ammonia (2 to 12%), and reactive volatile organic compounds (1 to 11%) in most cities, driven almost exclusively by emerging anthropogenic sources rather than traditional biomass burning. We estimate annual increases in urban population exposure to air pollutants of 1 to 18% for fine particles (PM_2.5) and 2 to 23% for NO₂ from 2005 to 2018 and attribute 180,000 (95% confidence interval: -230,000 to 590,000) additional premature deaths in 2018 (62% increase relative to 2005) to this increase in exposure. These cities are predicted to reach populations of up to 80 million people by 2100, so regulatory action targeting emerging anthropogenic sources is urgently needed.

Long term exposure to air pollution, mortality and morbidity in New Zealand: Cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate associations between long-term exposure to PM_2.5, NO₂, mortality and morbidity in New Zealand, a country with low levels of exposure.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

The New Zealand resident population.

METHOD

The main analyses included all adults aged 30 years and over with complete data on covariates: N = 2,223,507. People who died, or were admitted to hospital, (2013-2016) were linked anonymously to the 2013 census, and to estimates of ambient PM_2.5, and NO₂ concentration. We fitted Poisson regression models of mortality and morbidity in adults (≥30) for all natural causes of death, and by sub- group of major cause. Person-time of exposure, censored at the time of death, was included as an offset. We adjusted for confounding by age, sex, ethnicity, income, education, smoking status and ambient temperature. Further analyses stratified by ethnic group, and investigated respiratory hospital admissions in children.

RESULTS

There were statistically significant positive associations between pollutants and natural causes of death: RR (per 10 μg/m³) for PM_2.5 1.11 (1.07 to 1.15) and for NO₂ 1.10 (1.07 to 1.12). For morbidity, the strongest associations were for PM_2.5 and ischaemic heart disease in adults, RR: 1.29 (1.23 to 1.35) and for NO₂ and asthma in children, RR: 1.18 (1.09 to 1.28). In models restricted to specific ethnic groups, we found no consistent differences in any of the associations.

CONCLUSIONS

The results for NO₂ are higher than those published previously. Other studies have reported that the dose-response for PM_2.5 may be higher at low concentrations, but less is known about NO₂. It is possible NO₂ is acting as a proxy for other traffic-related pollutants that are causally related to health impacts. This study underlines the importance of controlling pollution caused by motor vehicles.

Long-Term Exposure to Low-Level NO2 and Mortality among the Elderly Population in the Southeastern United States

BACKGROUND

Mounting evidence has shown that long-term exposure to fine particulate matter [PM ≤2.5μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5)] and ozone (O3) can increase mortality. However, the health effects associated with long-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) are less clear, in particular the evidence is scarce for NO2 at low levels that are below the current international guidelines.

METHODS

We constructed a population-based full cohort comprising all Medicare beneficiaries (aged ≥65, N=13,590,387) in the southeastern United States from 2000 to 2016, and we then further defined the below-guideline cohort that included only those who were always exposed to low-level NO2, that is, with annual means below the current World Health Organization guidelines (i.e., ≤21 ppb). We applied previously estimated spatially and temporally resolved NO2 concentrations and assigned annual means to study participants based on their ZIP code of residence. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association between long-term exposure to low-level NO2 and all-cause mortality, adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

About 71.1% of the Medicare beneficiaries in the southeastern United States were always exposed to low-level NO2 over the study period. We observed an association between long-term exposure to low-level NO2 and all-cause mortality, with a hazard ratio (HR)= 1.042 (95% CI: 1.040, 1.045) in single-pollutant models and a HR= 1.047 (95% CI: 1.045, 1.049) in multipollutant models (adjusting for PM2.5 and O3), per 10-ppb increase in annual NO2 concentrations. The penalized spline indicates a linear exposure-response relationship across the entire NO2 exposure range. Medicare enrollees who were White, female, and residing in urban areas were more vulnerable to long-term NO2 exposure.

CONCLUSION

Using a large and representative cohort, we provide epidemiological evidence that long-term exposure to NO2, even below the national and global ambient air quality guidelines, was approximately linearly associated with a higher risk of mortality among older adults, independent of PM2.5 and O3 exposure. Improving air quality by reducing NO2 emissions, therefore, may yield significant health benefits. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9044.