Association of Tumor Necrosis Factor-α Inhibitors with Incident Dementia: Analysis Based on Population-Based Cohort Studies

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Preliminary evidence suggests a possible preventive effect of tumor necrosis factor-α inhibitors (TNFi) on incident dementia. The objective of the analysis was to investigate the association between TNFi and the risk of incident dementia in a population undergoing treatment for rheumatological disorders.

METHODS

We followed patients aged ≥ 65 years with dementia and rheumatological conditions in two cohort studies, DANBIO (N = 21,538), a Danish clinical database, and AOK PLUS (N = 7112), a German health insurance database. We defined incident dementia using diagnostic codes and/or medication use and used Cox regression to compare the associations of TNFi with other rheumatological therapies on the risk of dementia. To ensure that the patients were receiving long-term medication, we included patients with rheumatic diseases and systemic therapies.

RESULTS

We observed similar trends towards a lower risk of dementia associated with TNFi versus other anti-inflammatory agents in both cohorts (hazard ratios were 0.92 [95% confidence interval 0.76, 1.10] in DANBIO and 0.89 [95% confidence interval 0.63, 1.24] in AOK PLUS, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Tumor necrosis factor-α inhibitors may decrease the risk of incident dementia although the association did not reach statistical significance in this analysis. Further research, ideally with randomization, is needed to gauge the potential of repurposing TNFi for dementia prevention and/or treatment.

Harnessing AI to unmask Copenhagen's invisible air pollutants: A study on three ultrafine particle metrics

Ultrafine particles (UFPs) are airborne particles with a diameter of less than 100 nm. They are emitted from various sources, such as traffic, combustion, and industrial processes, and can have adverse effects on human health. Long-term mean ambient average particle size (APS) in the UFP range varies over space within cities, with locations near UFP sources having typically smaller APS. Spatial models for lung deposited surface area (LDSA) within urban areas are limited and currently there is no model for APS in any European city. We collected particle number concentration (PNC), LDSA, and APS data over one-year monitoring campaign from May 2021 to May 2022 across 27 locations and estimated annual mean in Copenhagen, Denmark, and obtained additionally annual mean PNC data from 6 state-owned continuous monitors. We developed 94 predictor variables, and machine learning models (random forest and bagged tree) were developed for PNC, LDSA, and APS. The annual mean PNC, LDSA, and APS were, respectively, 5523 pt/cm3, 12.0 μm2/cm3, and 46.1 nm. The final R2 values by random forest (RF) model were 0.93 for PNC, 0.88 for LDSA, and 0.85 for APS. The 10-fold, repeated 10-times cross-validation R2 values were 0.65, 0.67, and 0.60 for PNC, LDSA, and APS, respectively. The root mean square error for final RF models were 296 pt/cm3, 0.48 μm2/cm3, and 1.60 nm for PNC, LDSA, and APS, respectively. Traffic-related variables, such as length of major roads within buffers 100-150 m and distance to streets with various speed limits were amongst the highly-ranked predictors for our models. Overall, our ML models achieved high R2 values and low errors, providing insights into UFP exposure in a European city where average PNC is quite low. These hyperlocal predictions can be used to study health effects of UFPs in the Danish Capital.

Long-Term Exposure to Air Pollution and Risk of Acute Lower Respiratory Infections in the Danish Nurse Cohort

RATIONALE

Air pollution is a major risk factor for chronic cardiorespiratory diseases, affecting both the immune and respiratory systems' functionality, while the epidemiological evidence on respiratory infections remains sparse.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to assess the association of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution with risk of developing new and recurrent ALRIs that characterized by persistently severe symptoms necessitating hospital contact, and identify the potential susceptible populations by socio-economic status (SES), smoking, physical activity status, overweight, and co-morbidity with chronic lung disease.

METHODS

We followed 23,912 female nurses from the Danish Nurse Cohort (> 44 years) from baseline (1993 or 1999) until 2018 for the incident and recurrent ALRIs defined by hospital contact (in-, outpatient, and emergency room) data from the National Patient Register. Residential annual mean concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and black carbon (BC) were modelled using Danish DEHM/UBM/AirGIS system. We used marginal Cox models with time-varying exposures to assess the association of 3-year running-mean air pollution with incident and recurrent ALRIs and examine effect modification by age, socio-economic status (SES), smoking, physical activity, body mass index, and comorbidity with asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

RESULTS

During a 21.3 years mean follow-up, 4,746 ALRIs were observed, of which 2,553 were incident. We observed strong positive associations of all three pollutants with incident ALRIs, with hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals of 1.19 (1.08-1.31) per 2.5 µg/m3 for PM2.5, 1.17 (1.11-1.24) per 8.0 µg/m3 for NO2, and 1.09 (1.05-1.12) per 0.3 µg/m3 for BC, and slightly stronger associations with recurrent ALRIs. Associations were strongest in COPD patients and nurses with low physical activity.

CONCLUSION

Long-term exposure to air pollution at low levels was associated with risk of new and recurrent ALRIs, with COPD patients and physically inactive subjects most vulnerable. Primary Source of Funding: This study was supported by the Novo Nordisk Foundation Challenge Programme (NNF17OC0027812).

Cardiovascular disease and the risk of incident falls and mortality among adults aged ≥ 65 years presenting to the emergency department: a cohort study from national registry data in Denmark

BACKGROUND

Falls cause 58% of injury-related Emergency Department (ED) attendances. Previous research has highlighted the potential role of cardiovascular risk factors for falls. This study investigated the impact of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk on three-year incident falls, with presentation to the ED, and mortality.

METHODS

A matched cohort study design was employed using national registry data from 82,292 adults (33% male) aged ≥ 65 years living in Denmark who attended the ED in 2013. We compared age and gender matched ED attendees presenting with a fall versus another reason. The cohort was followed for three-year incident falls, with presentation to the ED, and mortality. The impact of falls-related CVDs was also examined.

RESULTS

Three-year incident falls was twofold higher among age and gender matched ED attendees aged ≥ 65 years presenting with a fall versus another reason at baseline. A presentation of falls with hip fracture had the highest percentage of incident falls in the 65-74 age group (22%) and the highest percentage mortality in all age groups (27-62%). CVD was not a significant factor in presenting with a fall at the ED, nor did it contribute significantly to the prediction of three-year incident falls. CVD was strongly associated with mortality risk among the ED fall group (RR = 1.81, 95% CI: 1.67-1.97) and showed interactions with both age and fall history.

CONCLUSION

In this large study of adults aged ≥ 65 years attending the ED utilising data from national administrative registers in Denmark, we confirm that older adults attending the ED with a fall, including those with hip fracture, were at greatest risk for future falls. While CVD did not predict incident falls, it increased the risk of mortality in the three-year follow up with advancing age. This may be informative for the provision of care pathways for older adults attending the ED due to a fall.

Long-Term Exposure to AIR Pollution and COVID-19 Mortality and Morbidity in DENmark: Who Is Most Susceptible? (AIRCODEN)

INTRODUCTION

Early ecological studies have suggested a link between air pollution and Coronavirus Diseases 2019 (COVID-19); however, the evidence from individual-level prospective cohort studies is still sparse. Here, we have examined, in a general population, whether long-term exposure to air pollution is associated with the risk of contracting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and developing severe COVID-19, resulting in hospitalization or death and who is most susceptible. We also examined whether long-term exposure to air pollution is associated with hospitalization or death due to COVID-19 in those who have tested positive for SARS-CoV-2.

METHODS

We included all Danish residents 30 years or older who resided in Denmark on March 1, 2020. and followed them in the National COVID-19 Surveillance System until first positive test (incidence), COVID-19 hospitalization, or death until April 26, 2021. We estimated mean levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm (PM2.5), black carbon (BC), and ozone (O3) at cohort participants' residence in 2019 by the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model/Urban Background Model. We used Cox proportional hazard models to estimate the associations of air pollutants with COVID-19 incidence, hospitalization, and mortality adjusting for age, sex, and socioeconomic status (SES) at the individual and area levels. We examined effect modification by age, sex, SES (education, income, wealth, employment), and comorbidities with cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, acute lower respiratory infections, diabetes, lung cancer, and dementia. We used logistic regression to examine association of air pollutants with COVID-19-related hospitalization or death among SARS-CoV-2 positive patients, adjusting for age, sex, individual- and area-level SES.

RESULTS

Of 3,721,810 people, 138,742 were infected, 11,270 hospitalized, and 2,557 died from COVID-19 during 14 months of follow-up. We detected strong positive associations with COVID-19 incidence, with hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of 1.10 (CI: 1.05-1.14) per 0.5-μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 and 1.18 (CI: 1.14-1.23) per 3.6-μg/m3 increase in NO2. For COVID-19 hospitalizations and for COVID-19 deaths, corresponding HRs and 95% CIs were 1.09 (CI: 1.01-1.17) and 1.19 (CI: 1.12-1.27), respectively for PM2.5, and 1.23 (CI: 1.04-1.44) and 1.18 (CI: 1.03-1.34), respectively for NO2. We also found strong positive and statistically significant associations with BC and negative associations with O3. Associations were strongest in those aged 65 years old or older, participants with the lowest SES, and patients with chronic cardiovascular, respiratory, metabolic, lung cancer, and neurodegenerative disease. Among 138,742 individuals who have tested positive for SARS-Cov-2, we detected positive association with COVID-19 hospitalizations (N = 11,270) with odds ratio and 95% CI of 1.04 (CI: 1.01- 1.08) per 0.5-μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 and 1.06 (CI: 1.01-1.12) per 3.6-μg/m3 increase in NO2, but no association with PM with an aerodynamic diameter <10 μm (PM10), BC, or O3, and no association between any of the pollutants and COVID-19 mortality (N = 2,557).

CONCLUSIONS

This large nationwide study provides strong new evidence in support of association between long-term exposure to air pollution and COVID-19.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 hospitalisation or death: Danish nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

Early ecological studies have suggested links between air pollution and risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but evidence from individual-level cohort studies is still sparse. We examined whether long-term exposure to air pollution is associated with risk of COVID-19 and who is most susceptible.

METHODS

We followed 3 721 810 Danish residents aged ≥30 years on 1 March 2020 in the National COVID-19 Surveillance System until the date of first positive test (incidence), COVID-19 hospitalisation or death until 26 April 2021. We estimated residential annual mean particulate matter with diameter ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC) and ozone (O3) in 2019 by the Danish DEHM/UBM model, and used Cox proportional hazards regression models to estimate the associations of air pollutants with COVID-19 outcomes, adjusting for age, sex, individual- and area-level socioeconomic status, and population density.

RESULTS

138 742 individuals were infected, 11 270 were hospitalised and 2557 died from COVID-19 during 14 months. We detected associations of PM2.5 (per 0.53 μg·m-3) and NO2 (per 3.59 μg·m-3) with COVID-19 incidence (hazard ratio (HR) 1.10 (95% CI 1.05-1.14) and HR 1.18 (95% CI 1.14-1.23), respectively), hospitalisations (HR 1.09 (95% CI 1.01-1.17) and HR 1.19 (95% CI 1.12-1.27), respectively) and death (HR 1.23 (95% CI 1.04-1.44) and HR 1.18 (95% CI 1.03-1.34), respectively), which were strongest in the lowest socioeconomic groups and among patients with chronic respiratory, cardiometabolic and neurodegenerative diseases. We found positive associations with BC and negative associations with O3.

CONCLUSION

Long-term exposure to air pollution may contribute to increased risk of contracting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection as well as developing severe COVID-19 disease requiring hospitalisation or resulting in death.

Early-life air pollution and green space exposures as determinants of stunting among children under age five in Sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Childhood malnutrition is a major public health issue in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and 61.4 million children under the age of five years in the region are stunted. Although insight from existing studies suggests plausible pathways between ambient air pollution exposure and stunting, there are limited studies on the effect of different ambient air pollutants on stunting among children.

OBJECTIVE

Explore the effect of early-life environmental exposures on stunting among children under the age of five years.

METHODS

In this study, we used pooled health and population data from 33 countries in SSA between 2006 and 2019 and environmental data from the Atmospheric Composition Analysis Group and NASA's GIOVANNI platform. We estimated the association between early-life environmental exposures and stunting in three exposure periods - in-utero (during pregnancy), post-utero (after pregnancy to current age) and cumulative (from pregnancy to current age), using Bayesian hierarchical modelling. We also visualise the likelihood of stunting among children based on their region of residence using Bayesian hierarchical modelling.

RESULTS

The findings show that 33.6% of sampled children were stunted. In-utero PM2.5 was associated with a higher likelihood of stunting (OR = 1.038, CrI = 1.002-1.075). Early-life exposures to nitrogen dioxide and sulphate were robustly associated with stunting among children. The findings also show spatial variation in a high and low likelihood of stunting based on a region of residence.

IMPACT STATEMENT

This study explores the effect of early-life environmental exposures on child growth or stunting among sub-Saharan African children. The study focuses on three exposure windows - pregnancy, after birth and cumulative exposure during pregnancy and after birth. The study also employs spatial analysis to assess the spatial burden of stunted growth in relation to environmental exposures and socioeconomic factors. The findings suggest major air pollutants are associated with stunted growth among children in sub-Saharan Africa.

Long-term exposure to elemental components of fine particulate matter and all-natural and cause-specific mortality in a Danish nationwide administrative cohort study

BACKGROUND

Fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is a well-recognized risk factor for premature death. However, evidence on which PM_2.5 components are most relevant is unclear.

METHODS

We evaluated the associations between mortality and long-term exposure to eight PM_2.5 elemental components [copper (Cu), iron (Fe), zinc (Zn), sulfur (S), nickel (Ni), vanadium (V), silicon (Si), and potassium (K)]. Studied outcomes included death from diabetes, chronic kidney disease (CKD), dementia, and psychiatric disorders as well as all-natural causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory diseases (RD), and lung cancer. We followed all residents in Denmark (aged ≥30 years) from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017. We used European-wide land-use regression models at a 100 × 100 m scale to estimate the residential annual mean levels of exposure to PM_2.5 components. The models were developed with supervised linear regression (SLR) and random forest (RF). The associations were evaluated by Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for individual- and area-level socioeconomic factors and total PM_2.5 mass.

RESULTS

Of 3,081,244 individuals, we observed 803,373 death from natural causes during follow-up. We found significant positive associations between all-natural mortality with Si and K from both exposure modeling approaches (hazard ratios; 95% confidence intervals per interquartile range increase): SLR-Si (1.04; 1.03-1.05), RF-Si (1.01; 1.00-1.02), SLR-K (1.03; 1.02-1.04), and RF-K (1.06; 1.05-1.07). Strong associations of K and Si were detected with most causes of mortality except CKD and K, and diabetes and Si (the strongest associations for psychiatric disorders mortality). In addition, Fe was relevant for mortality from RD, lung cancer, CKD, and psychiatric disorders; Zn with mortality from CKD, RD, and lung cancer, and; Ni and V with lung cancer mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

We present novel results of the relevance of different PM_2.5 components for different causes of death, with K and Si seeming to be most consistently associated with mortality in Denmark.

Effectiveness evaluation of an antenatal care intervention addressing disparities to improve perinatal outcomes in Denmark: A nationwide register-based analysis of a cluster randomised controlled trial (MAMAACT)

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether MAMAACT, an antenatal care (ANC) intervention, aimed at reducing ethnic and social disparities in perinatal mortality, affected perinatal health outcomes.

DESIGN

Cluster randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

Nineteen of 20 maternity wards in Denmark.

POPULATION

All newborn children within a pre-implementation period (2014-2017) or an implementation period (2018-2019) (n = 188 658).

INTERVENTION

A 6-h training session for midwives in intercultural communication and cultural competence, two follow-up dialogue meetings, and health education materials for pregnant women on warning signs of pregnancy complications in six languages.

METHODS

Nationwide register-based analysis of the MAMAACT cluster randomised controlled trial. Mixed-effects logistic regression models were used to estimate the change in outcomes from pre- to post-implementation in the intervention group relative to the control group. Results were obtained for the overall study population and for children born to immigrants from low- to middle-income countries, separately. Models were adjusted for confounders selected a priori.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

A composite perinatal mortality and morbidity outcome, including stillbirths, neonatal deaths, Apgar score <7, umbilical arterial pH < 7.0, admissions to a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) >48 h, and NICU admissions for mechanical ventilation. Additional outcomes were the individual measures.

RESULTS

The intervention increased the risk of the composite outcome (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.16, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.99-1.34), mainly driven by differences in NICU admission risk (composite outcome excluding NICU, aOR 0.98, 95% CI 0.84-1.14). The intervention slightly increased the risk of low Apgar score and decreased the risk of low arterial pH, reflecting, however, small differences in absolute numbers. Other outcomes were unchanged.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the MAMAACT intervention did not improve the composite perinatal mortality and morbidity outcome (when excluding NICU admissions). The lack of effects may be due to contextual factors including organisational barriers in ANC hindering the midwives from changing practices.

Long-term air pollution exposure and Parkinson's disease mortality in a large pooled European cohort: An ELAPSE study

BACKGROUND

The link between exposure to ambient air pollution and mortality from cardiorespiratory diseases is well established, while evidence on neurodegenerative disorders including Parkinson's Disease (PD) remains limited.

OBJECTIVE

We examined the association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and PD mortality in seven European cohorts.

METHODS

Within the project 'Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe' (ELAPSE), we pooled data from seven cohorts among six European countries. Annual mean residential concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), black carbon (BC), and ozone (O₃), as well as 8 PM_2.5 components (copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulphur, silicon, vanadium, zinc), for 2010 were estimated using Europe-wide hybrid land use regression models. PD mortality was defined as underlying cause of death being either PD, secondary Parkinsonism, or dementia in PD. We applied Cox proportional hazard models to investigate the associations between air pollution and PD mortality, adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Of 271,720 cohort participants, 381 died from PD during 19.7 years of follow-up. In single-pollutant analyses, we observed positive associations between PD mortality and PM_2.5 (hazard ratio per 5 µg/m³: 1.25; 95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.55), NO₂ (1.13; 0.95-1.34 per 10 µg/m³), and BC (1.12; 0.94-1.34 per 0.5 × 10^-5m^-1), and a negative association with O₃ (0.74; 0.58-0.94 per 10 µg/m³). Associations of PM_2.5, NO₂, and BC with PD mortality were linear without apparent lower thresholds. In two-pollutant models, associations with PM_2.5 remained robust when adjusted for NO₂ (1.24; 0.95-1.62) or BC (1.28; 0.96-1.71), whereas associations with NO₂ or BC attenuated to null. O₃ associations remained negative, but no longer statistically significant in models with PM_2.5. We detected suggestive positive associations with the potassium component of PM_2.5.

CONCLUSION

Long-term exposure to PM_2.5, at levels well below current EU air pollution limit values, may contribute to PD mortality.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality from dementia, psychiatric disorders, and suicide in a large pooled European cohort: ELAPSE study

Ambient air pollution is an established risk factor for premature mortality from chronic cardiovascular, respiratory and metabolic diseases, while evidence on neurodegenerative diseases and psychiatric disorders remains limited. We examined the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality from dementia, psychiatric disorders, and suicide in seven European cohorts. Within the multicenter project 'Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe' (ELAPSE), we pooled data from seven European cohorts from six countries. Based on the residential addresses, annual mean levels of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), black carbon (BC), ozone (O₃), and 8 PM_2.5 components were estimated using Europe-wide hybrid land-use regression models. We applied stratified Cox proportional hazard models to investigate the associations between air pollution and mortality from dementia, psychiatric disorders, and suicide. Of 271,720 participants, 900 died from dementia, 241 from psychiatric disorders, and 164 from suicide, during a mean follow-up of 19.7 years. In fully adjusted models, we observed positive associations of NO₂ (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.38; 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.13, 1.70 per 10 µg/m³), PM_2.5 (HR = 1.29; 95 % CI: 0.98, 1.71 per 5 µg/m³), and BC (HR = 1.37; 95 % CI: 1.11, 1.69 per 0.5 × 10^-5/m) with psychiatric disorders mortality, as well as with suicide (NO₂: HR = 1.13 [95 % CI: 0.92, 1.38]; PM_2.5: HR = 1.19 [95 % CI: 0.76, 1.87]; BC: HR = 1.08 [95 % CI: 0.87, 1.35]), and no association with dementia mortality. We did not detect any positive associations of O₃ and 8 PM_2.5 components with any of the three mortality outcomes. Long-term exposure to NO₂, PM_2.5, and BC may lead to premature mortality from psychiatric disorders and suicide.

Job loss and fetal growth restriction: identification of critical trimesters of exposure

PURPOSE

Previous research suggests that job loss in a household during pregnancy may perturb fetal growth. However, this work often cannot rule out unmeasured confounding due to selection into job loss. Recent work using data on exogenous job loss (due to a plant closure) finds that a father's unexpected job loss during his spouse's pregnancy increases the risk of a low weight birth. Using a unique set of linked registries in Denmark, we build on this work and examine whether associations between a father's unexpected job loss and low birthweight differ by trimester of in utero exposure. We additionally examine trimester-specific associations of job loss with small-for-gestational-age, a proxy for restricted fetal growth, which may cause low birthweight.

METHODS

We apply a sibling control design to over 1.4 million live births in Denmark, 1980 to 2017, to examine whether this plausibly exogenous form of job loss corresponds with increased risk of low weight or small-for-gestational-age births, depending on the timing of displacement in the first, second, or third trimester.

RESULTS

Results indicate an elevated risk of low birthweight (OR = 1.80, 95% CI: 1.24, 2.62) and small-for-gestational-age (OR = 1.40, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.93) among gestations exposed to job loss in the second trimester of pregnancy. Sensitivity analyses using continuous outcome measures (e.g., birthweight in grams, birthweight for gestational age percentile) and maternal fixed effects analyses produce substantively similar inference.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings support the notion that unexpected job loss may affect fetal growth and that the second trimester in particular appears sensitive to this external stressor.

Fetal death after the introduction of COVID-19 mitigation measures in Sweden, Denmark and Norway: a registry-based study

It remains unclear whether the rate of fetal death has changed during the COVID-19 pandemic. We assessed the impact of COVID-19 mitigation measures on fetal death in Sweden (449,347 births), Denmark (290,857 pregnancies) and Norway (261,057 pregnancies) using robust population-based registry data. We used Cox regression to assess the impact of the implementation of pandemic mitigation measures on March 12th, 2020, on miscarriage (fetal loss before gestational week 22) and stillbirth (fetal loss after gestational week 22). A total of 11% of 551,914 pregnancies in Denmark and Norway ended in miscarriage, while the proportion of stillbirths among 937,174 births across the three countries was 0.3%. There was no difference in the risk of fetal death during the year following pandemic mitigation measures. For miscarriage, the combined hazard ratio (HR) for Norway and Denmark was 1.01 (95% CI 0.98, 1.03), and for stillbirth, the combined HR for all three countries was 0.99 (95% CI 0.89, 1.09). We observed a slightly decreased risk of miscarriage during the first 4 months, with an HR of 0.94 (95% CI 0.90, 0.99) after lockdown. In conclusion, the risk of fetal death did not change after the implementation of COVID-19 pandemic mitigation measures in the three Scandinavian countries.

Prevalence and Incidence Rates of Atrial Fibrillation in Denmark 2004–2018

Purpose

To estimate the prevalence and incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in Denmark during 2004–2018 and to investigate whether methodological choices influence these estimates.

Patients and Methods

A register-based cohort study was conducted of all individuals aged ≥18 years in Denmark 2004–2018. The cumulative prevalence of AF at the end of the study period was calculated as the number of AF cases alive with at least one inpatient or two outpatient diagnoses during 1994–2018 divided by the number of Danish residents in 2018. Incidence rates were calculated as the number of annual AF cases with no previous diagnosis in the past 10 years (ie, a 10-year washout period) divided by the person-time contributed by the population free of AF on 1 January in the same calendar year. Furthermore, the influence of varying case definitions was investigated.

Results

The cumulative prevalence of AF was 3.0% in 2018. The incidence rate increased from 391 to 481 per 100,000 person-years (PYs) from 2004 to 2015 (1.7% average annual increase) after which it declined to 367 per 100,000 PYs in 2018 (8.5% average annual decrease). This pattern was observed in both sexes irrespective of age. Methodological choices, particularly the case definition’s strictness and the length of the washout period, had a substantial influence on the reported estimates.

Conclusion

The cumulative prevalence of AF is currently around 3.0% in the Danish population, but the incidence has declined since 2015. As these estimates are influenced by methodological choices, future studies should strive for precise reporting of study methodology.

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Stringency of COVID-19 Containment Response Policies and Air Quality Changes: A Global Analysis across 1851 Cities

The COVID-19 containment response policies (CRPs) had a major impact on air quality (AQ). These CRPs have been time-varying and location-specific. So far, despite having numerous studies on the effect of COVID-19 lockdown on AQ, a knowledge gap remains on the association between stringency of CRPs and AQ changes across the world, regions, nations, and cities. Here, we show that globally across 1851 cities (each more than 300 000 people) in 149 countries, after controlling for the impacts of relevant covariates (e.g., meteorology), Sentinel-5P satellite-observed nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) levels decreased by 4.9% (95% CI: 2.2, 7.6%) during lockdowns following stringent CRPs compared to pre-CRPs. The NO₂ levels did not change significantly during moderate CRPs and even increased during mild CRPs by 2.3% (95% CI: 0.7, 4.0%), which was 6.8% (95% CI: 2.0, 12.0%) across Europe and Central Asia, possibly due to population avoidance of public transportation in favor of private transportation. Among 1768 cities implementing stringent CRPs, we observed the most NO₂ reduction in more populated and polluted cities. Our results demonstrate that AQ improved when and where stringent COVID-19 CRPs were implemented, changed less under moderate CRPs, and even deteriorated under mild CRPs. These changes were location-, region-, and CRP-specific.

Long-term Air Pollution Exposure and Pneumonia-related Mortality in a Large Pooled European Cohort

Rationale: Ambient air pollution exposure has been linked to mortality from chronic cardiorespiratory diseases, while evidence on respiratory infections remains more limited. Objectives: We examined the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and pneumonia-related mortality in adults in a pool of eight European cohorts. Methods: Within the multicenter project ELAPSE (Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe), we pooled data from eight cohorts among six European countries. Annual mean residential concentrations in 2010 for fine particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), black carbon (BC), and ozone were estimated using Europe-wide hybrid land-use regression models. We applied stratified Cox proportional hazard models to investigate the associations between air pollution and pneumonia, influenza, and acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) mortality. Measurements and Main Results: Of 325,367 participants, 712 died from pneumonia and influenza combined, 682 from pneumonia, and 695 from ALRI during a mean follow-up of 19.5 years. NO₂ and BC were associated with 10-12% increases in pneumonia and influenza combined mortality, but 95% confidence intervals included unity (hazard ratios, 1.12 [0.99-1.26] per 10 μg/m³ for NO₂; 1.10 [0.97-1.24] per 0.5 10^-5m^-1 for BC). Associations with pneumonia and ALRI mortality were almost identical. We detected effect modification suggesting stronger associations with NO₂ or BC in overweight, employed, or currently smoking participants compared with normal weight, unemployed, or nonsmoking participants. Conclusions: Long-term exposure to combustion-related air pollutants NO₂ and BC may be associated with mortality from lower respiratory infections, but larger studies are needed to estimate these associations more precisely.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality in a Danish nationwide administrative cohort study: Beyond mortality from cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer

BACKGROUND

The association between long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality from cardiorespiratory diseases is well established, yet the evidence for other diseases remains limited.

OBJECTIVES

To examine the associations of long-term exposure to air pollution with mortality from diabetes, dementia, psychiatric disorders, chronic kidney disease (CKD), asthma, acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI), as well as mortality from all-natural and cardiorespiratory causes in the Danish nationwide administrative cohort.

METHODS

We followed all residents aged ≥ 30 years (3,083,227) in Denmark from 1 January 2000 until 31 December 2017. Annual mean concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), black carbon (BC), and ozone (warm season) were estimated using European-wide hybrid land-use regression models (100 m × 100 m) and assigned to baseline residential addresses. We used Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate the association between air pollution and mortality, accounting for demographic and socioeconomic factors. We additionally applied indirect adjustment for smoking and body mass index (BMI).

RESULTS

During 47,023,454 person-years of follow-up, 803,881 people died from natural causes. Long-term exposure to PM_2.5 (mean: 12.4 µg/m³), NO₂ (20.3 µg/m³), and/or BC (1.0 × 10^-5/m) was statistically significantly associated with all studied mortality outcomes except CKD. A 5 µg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 was associated with higher mortality from all-natural causes (hazard ratio 1.11; 95% confidence interval 1.09-1.13), cardiovascular disease (1.09; 1.07-1.12), respiratory disease (1.11; 1.07-1.15), lung cancer (1.19; 1.15-1.24), diabetes (1.10; 1.04-1.16), dementia (1.05; 1.00-1.10), psychiatric disorders (1.38; 1.27-1.50), asthma (1.13; 0.94-1.36), and ALRI (1.14; 1.09-1.20). Associations with long-term exposure to ozone (mean: 80.2 µg/m³) were generally negative but became significantly positive for several endpoints in two-pollutant models. Generally, associations were attenuated but remained significant after indirect adjustment for smoking and BMI.

CONCLUSION

Long-term exposure to PM_2.5, NO₂, and/or BC in Denmark were associated with mortality beyond cardiorespiratory diseases, including diabetes, dementia, psychiatric disorders, asthma, and ALRI.

Long-term exposure to road traffic noise and all-cause and cause-specific mortality: a Danish Nurse Cohort study

BACKGROUND

Long-term road traffic noise exposure is linked to cardio-metabolic disease morbidity, whereas evidence on mortality remains limited.

OBJECTIVES

We investigated association of long-term exposure to road traffic noise with all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

METHODS

We linked 22,858 females from the Danish Nurse Cohort (DNC), recruited into the Danish Register of Causes of Death up to 2014. Road traffic noise levels since 1970 were modelled by Nord2000 as the annual mean of a weighted 24 h average (L_den). Cox regression models examined the associations between L_den (5-year and 23-year means) and all-cause and cause-specific mortalities, adjusting for lifestyle and exposure to PM_2.5 (particulate matter with diameter < 2.5 μm) and NO₂ (nitrogen dioxide).

RESULTS

During follow-up (mean 17.4 years), 3902 nurses died: 1622 from cancer, 922 from CVDs (289 from stroke), 338 from respiratory diseases (186 from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 114 from lower respiratory tract infections [ALRIs]), 234 from dementia, 95 from psychiatric disorders, and 79 from diabetes. Hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for all-cause mortality from fully-adjusted models were 1.06 (1.01, 1.11) and 1.09 (1.03, 1.15) per 10 dB of 5-year and 23-year mean L_den, respectively, which attenuated slightly in our main model (fully-adjusted plus PM_2.5: 1.04 [1.00, 1.10]; 1.08 [1.02, 1.13]). Main model estimates suggested the strongest associations between 5-year mean L_den and diabetes (1.14: 0.81, 1.61), ALRIs (1.13: 0.84, 1.54), dementia (1.12: 0.90, 1.38), and stroke (1.10: 0.91, 1.31), whereas associations with 23-year mean L_den were suggested for respiratory diseases (1.15: 0.95, 1.39), psychiatric disorders (1.11: 0.78, 1.59), and all cancers (1.08: 0.99, 1.17).

DISCUSSION

Among the female nurses from the DNC, we observed that long-term exposure to road traffic noise led to premature mortality, independently of air pollution, and its adverse effects may extend well beyond those on the cardio-metabolic system to include respiratory diseases, cancer, neurodegenerative and psychiatric disorders.

Long-term exposure to road traffic noise and stroke incidence: a Danish Nurse Cohort study

BACKGROUND

Road traffic noise has been linked to increased risk of ischemic heart disease, yet evidence on stroke shows mixed results. We examine the association between long-term exposure to road traffic noise and incidence of stroke, overall and by subtype (ischemic or hemorrhagic), after adjustment for air pollution.

METHODS

Twenty-five thousand six hundred and sixty female nurses from the Danish Nurse Cohort recruited in 1993 or 1999 were followed for stroke-related first-ever hospital contact until December 31st, 2014. Full residential address histories since 1970 were obtained and annual means of road traffic noise (L_den [dB]) and air pollutants (particulate matter with diameter < 2.5 μm and < 10 μm [PM_2.5 and PM₁₀], nitrogen dioxide [NO₂], nitrogen oxides [NOx]) were determined using validated models. Time-varying Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) (95% confidence intervals [CI]) for the associations of one-, three-, and 23-year running means of L_den preceding stroke (all, ischemic or hemorrhagic), adjusting for stroke risk factors and air pollutants. The World Health Organization and the Danish government's maximum exposure recommendations of 53 and 58 dB, respectively, were explored as potential L_den thresholds.

RESULTS

Of 25,660 nurses, 1237 developed their first stroke (1089 ischemic, 148 hemorrhagic) during 16 years mean follow-up. For associations between a 1-year mean of L_den and overall stroke incidence, the estimated HR (95% CI) in the fully adjusted model was 1.06 (0.98-1.14) per 10 dB, which attenuated to 1.01 (0.93-1.09) and 1.00 (0.91-1.09) in models further adjusted for PM_2.5 or NO₂, respectively. Associations for other exposure periods or separately for ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke were similar. There was no evidence of a threshold association between L_den and stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term exposure to road traffic noise was suggestively positively associated with the risk of overall stroke, although not after adjusting for air pollution.

Long-Term Exposure to Air Pollution, Road Traffic Noise, and Heart Failure Incidence: The Danish Nurse Cohort

Background We examined the association of long-term exposure to air pollution and road traffic noise with incident heart failure (HF). Methods And Results Using data on female nurses from the Danish Nurse Cohort (aged >44 years), we investigated associations between 3-year mean exposures to air pollution and road traffic noise and incident HF using Cox regression models, adjusting for relevant confounders. Incidence of HF was defined as the first hospital contact (inpatient, outpatient, or emergency) between cohort baseline (1993 or 1999) and December 31, 2014, based on the Danish National Patient Register. Annual mean levels of particulate matter with a diameter <2.5 µm since 1990 and NO₂ and road traffic noise since 1970 were estimated at participants' residences. Of the 22 189 nurses, 484 developed HF. We detected associations with all 3 pollutants, with hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.17 (95% CI, 1.01-1.36), 1.10 (95% CI, 0.99-1.22), and 1.12 (95% CI, 0.99-1.26) per increase of 5.1 µg/m³ in particulate matter with a diameter <2.5 µm, 8.6 µg/m³ in NO₂, and 9.3 dB in road traffic noise, respectively. We observed an enhanced risk of HF incidence for those exposed to high levels of the 3 pollutants; however, the effect modification of coexposure was not statistically significant. Former smokers and nurses with hypertension showed the strongest associations with particulate matter with a diameter <2.5 µm (P_{effect modification}<0.05). Conclusions We found that long-term exposures to air pollution and road traffic noise were independently associated with HF.

The plasticity of late-onset dementia: A nationwide cohort study in Denmark

INTRODUCTION

The determinants of the secular decline in the incidence of dementia are not clear. The aim of this study was to investigate the influences of four factors-education, wealth, cerebrovascular health, and general health-on the secular decline.

METHODS

A cohort study was conducted of all individuals aged ≥65 years in Denmark from 2005 through 2018 (N = 1,757,168). Annual incidence rates of dementia and population attributable risks of the four factors were calculated and birth cohort trends were examined.

RESULTS

The incidence of dementia declined by 22.5% in men and 34.2% in women from 2005 through 2018. Population attributable risks of lower education, lower wealth, and stroke likewise declined. Independent of these improvements, the incidence of dementia fell across successive birth cohorts.

DISCUSSION

Most of the observed plasticity in late-onset dementia is associated with a risk decline across successive birth cohorts that is independent of improvements in traditional risk factors.

Birth outcomes following unexpected job loss: a matched-sibling design

BACKGROUND

Research documents social and economic antecedents of adverse birth outcomes, which may include involuntary job loss. Previous work on job loss and adverse birth outcomes, however, lacks high-quality individual data on, and variation in, plausibly exogenous job loss during pregnancy and therefore cannot rule out strong confounding.

METHODS

We analysed unique linked registries in Denmark, from 1980 to 2017, to examine whether a father's involuntary job loss during his spouse's pregnancy increases the risk of a low-weight (i.e. <2500 grams) and/or preterm (i.e. <37 weeks of gestational age) birth. We applied a matched-sibling design to 743 574 sibling pairs.

RESULTS

Results indicate an increased risk of a low-weight birth among infants exposed in utero to fathers' unexpected job loss [odds ratio (OR) = 1.37, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07, 1.75]. Sex-specific analyses show that this result holds for males (OR = 1.70, 95% CI: 1.14, 2.53) but not females (OR = 1.24, 95% CI: 0.80, 1.91). We find no relation with preterm birth.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings support the inference that a father's unexpected job loss adversely affects the course of pregnancy, especially among males exposed in utero.

Long-Term Exposure to Road Traffic Noise and Air Pollution, and Incident Atrial Fibrillation in the Danish Nurse Cohort

BACKGROUND

Associations between long-term exposure to air pollution and road traffic noise have been established for ischemic heart disease, but findings have been mixed for atrial fibrillation (AF).

OBJECTIVES

The goal of the study was to examine associations of long-term exposure to road traffic noise and air pollution with AF.

METHODS

Time-varying Cox regression models were used to estimate associations of 1-, 3-, and 23-y mean road traffic noise and air pollution exposures with AF incidence in 23,528 women enrolled in the Danish Nurse Cohort (age >44y at baseline in 1993 or 1999). AF diagnoses were ascertained via the Danish National Patient Register. Annual mean weighted 24-h average road traffic noise levels (Lden) at the nurses' residences, since 1970, were estimated using the Nord2000 model, and annual mean levels of particulate matter with a diameter <2.5μm (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) were estimated using the DEHM/UBM/AirGIS model.

RESULTS

Of 23,528 nurses with no prior AF diagnosis at the cohort baseline, 1,522 developed AF during follow-up. In a fully adjusted model (including PM2.5), the estimated risk of AF was 18% higher [hazard ratio (HR); 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.18; 1.02, 1.36] in nurses with residential 3-y mean Lden levels >58 dB vs. <48 dB, with similar findings for 1-y mean exposures. A 3.9-μg/m3 increase in 3-y mean PM2.5 was associated with incident AF before and after adjustment for concurrent exposure to road traffic noise (HR 1.09; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.20 and 1.08; 95% CI: 0.97, 1.19, respectively). Associations with 1-y mean PM2.5 exposures were positive but closer to the null and not significant. Associations with NO2 were null for all time periods before and after adjustment for road traffic noise and inverse when adjusted for concurrent PM2.5.

CONCLUSION

Our analysis of prospective data from a cohort of Danish female nurses followed for up to 14 y provided suggestive evidence of independent associations between incident AF and 1- and 3-y exposures to road traffic noise and PM2.5. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8090.

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and road traffic noise and asthma incidence in adults: The Danish Nurse cohort

BACKGROUND

Ambient air pollution is likely a risk factor for asthma, and recent evidence suggests the possible relevance of road traffic noise.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the associations of long-term exposure to air pollution and road traffic noise with adult-asthma incidence.

METHODS

We followed 28,731 female nurses (age > 44 years) from the Danish Nurse Cohort, recruited in 1993 and 1999, for first hospital contact for asthma from 1977 until 2015. We estimated residential annual mean concentrations of particulate matter with diameter < 2.5 µm (PM_2.5) since 1990 and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) since 1970 with the Danish DEHM/UBM/AirGIS modeling system, and road traffic noise (L_den) since 1970 with the Nord2000 model. Time-varying Cox regression models were used to associate air pollution and road traffic noise exposure with asthma incidence.

RESULTS

During 18.6 years' mean follow-up, 528 out of 23,093 participants had hospital contact for asthma. The hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals for asthma incidence associated with 3-year moving average exposures were 1.29 (1.03, 1.61) per 6.3 µg/m³ for PM_2.5, 1.16 (1.07, 1.27) per 8.2 µg/m³ for NO₂, and 1.12 (1.00, 1.25) per 10 dB for L_den. The HR for NO₂ remained unchanged after adjustment for either PM_2.5 or L_den, while the HRs for PM_2.5 and L_den attenuated to unity after adjustment for NO₂.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term exposure to air pollution was associated with adult-asthma incidence independently of road traffic noise, with NO₂ most relevant. Road traffic noise was not independently associated with adult-asthma incidence.

Long-term air pollution and road traffic noise exposure and COPD: the Danish Nurse Cohort

BACKGROUND

While air pollution has been linked to the development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), evidence on the role of environmental noise is just emerging. We examined the associations of long-term exposure to air pollution and road traffic noise with COPD incidence.

METHODS

We defined COPD incidence for 24 538 female nurses from the Danish Nurse Cohort (age>44 years) as the first hospital contact between baseline (1993 or 1999) and 2015. We estimated residential annual mean concentrations of particulate matter with diameter<2.5 µm (PM_2.5) since 1990 and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) since 1970 by the Danish DEHM/UBM/AirGIS modeling system, and road traffic noise (L_den) since 1970 by the Nord2000 model. Time-varying Cox regression models were applied to assess the associations of air pollution and road traffic noise with COPD incidence.

RESULTS

977 nurses developed COPD during 18.6 years' mean follow-up. We observed associations with COPD for all three exposures with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of 1.19 (1.01, 1.41) per 6.26 µg·m^-3 for PM_2.5, 1.13 (1.05, 1.20) per 8.19 µg·m^-3 for NO₂, and 1.15 (1.06, 1.25) per 10 dB for L_den. Associations with NO₂ and L_den attenuated slightly after mutual adjustment, but were robust to adjustment for PM_2.5. Associations with PM_2.5 were attenuated to null after adjustment for either NO₂ or L_den. No potential interaction effect was observed between air pollutants and noise.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term exposure to air pollution, especially traffic-related NO₂, and road traffic noise were independently associated with COPD.

Outdoor light at night and breast cancer incidence in the Danish Nurse Cohort

BACKGROUND

Knowledge of the role of melatonin, xenograft experiments, and epidemiological studies suggests that exposure to light at night (LAN) may disturb circadian rhythms, possibly increasing the risk of developing breast cancer.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the association between residential outdoor LAN and the incidence of breast cancer: overall and subtypes classified by estrogen (ER) and progesterone (PR) receptor status.

METHODS

We used data on 16,941 nurses from the Danish Nurse Cohort who were followed-up from the cohort baseline in 1993 or 1999 through 2012 in the Danish Cancer Registry for breast cancer incidence and the Danish Breast Cancer Cooperative Group for breast cancer ER and PR status. LAN exposure data were obtained from the U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) available for 1996, 1999, 2000, 2003, 2004, 2006, and 2010 in nW/cm²/sr unit, and assigned to the study participants' residence addresses during the follow-up. Time-varying Cox regression models were used to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between LAN and breast cancer, adjusting for individual characteristics, road traffic noise, and air pollution.

RESULTS

Of 16,941 nurses, 745 developed breast cancer in total during 320,289 person-years of follow-up. We found no association between exposure to LAN and overall breast cancer. In the fully adjusted models, HRs for the highest (65.8-446.4 nW/cm²/sr) and medium (22.0-65.7 nW/cm²/sr) LAN tertiles were 0.97 (95% CI: 0.77, 1.23) and 1.09 (95% CI: 0.90, 1.31), respectively, compared to the lowest tertile of LAN exposure (0-21.9 nW/cm²/sr). We found a suggestive association between LAN and ER-breast cancer.

CONCLUSION

This large cohort study of Danish female nurses suggests weak evidence of the association between LAN and breast cancer incidence.

Time trends in incidence and prevalence of chronic pancreatitis: A 25-year population-based nationwide study

BACKGROUND

Updated population-based estimates on incidence and prevalence of chronic pancreatitis are scarce.

METHODS

We used nationwide healthcare registries to identify all Danish patients diagnosed with chronic pancreatitis and computed crude and standardised incidence rates and prevalence estimates in 1994-2018. Incidence and prevalence were evaluated in relation to patients age and gender, aetiology (alcoholic vs. non-alcoholic) and smoking and alcohol consumption in the general Danish population.

RESULTS

The mean incidence rate of chronic pancreatitis during the study period was 12.6 per 100,000 person years for the total population, for women it was 8.6 per 100,000 person years and for men it was 16.7 per 100,000 person years. The standardised incidence rate was stable from 1994 to 2018, remaining at 12.5 per 100,000 person years in the last observation period (2014-2018). The point prevalence of chronic pancreatitis in 2016 was 153.9 per 100,000 persons. A gradual increase in standardised prevalence estimates was observed during the study period from 126.6 in 1996 to 153.9 in 2016. The mean age at chronic pancreatitis diagnosis increased from 52.1 to 60.0 years during the study period.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of chronic pancreatitis is increasing in the Danish population despite a stable incidence level. Improved management strategies and changes in the underlying patient population may explain these observations.

Associations of Cytomegalovirus Infection With All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality in Multiple Observational Cohort Studies of Older Adults

BACKGROUND

Whether latent cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection in older adults has any substantial health consequences is unclear. Here, we sought associations between CMV-seropositivity and IgG titer with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in 5 longitudinal cohorts.

METHODS

Leiden Longevity Study, Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk, Longitudinal Study of Aging Danish Twins, and Leiden 85-plus Study were assessed at median (2.8-11.4 years) follow-up . Cox regression and random effects meta-analysis were used to estimate mortality risk dependent on CMV serostatus and/or IgG antibody titer, in quartiles after adjusting for confounders.

RESULTS

CMV-seropositivity was seen in 47%-79% of 10 122 white community-dwelling adults aged 59-93 years. Of these, 3519 had died on follow-up (579 from cardiovascular disease). CMV seropositivity was not associated with all-cause (hazard ratio [HR], 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], .97-1.14) or cardiovascular mortality (HR, 0.97; 95% CI, .83-1.13). Subjects in the highest CMV IgG quartile group had increased all-cause mortality relative to CMV-seronegatives (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.04-1.29) but this association lost significance after adjustment for confounders (HR, 1.13; 95% CI, .99-1.29). The lack of increased mortality risk was confirmed in subanalyses.

CONCLUSIONS

CMV infection is not associated with all-cause or cardiovascular mortality in white community-dwelling older adults.

Long-term exposure to low levels of air pollution and mortality adjusting for road traffic noise: A Danish Nurse Cohort study

BACKGROUND

The association between air pollution and mortality is well established, yet some uncertainties remain: there are few studies that account for road traffic noise exposure or that consider in detail the shape of the exposure-response function for cause-specific mortality outcomes, especially at low-levels of exposure.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the association between long-term exposure to particulate matter [(PM) with a diameter of <2.5 µm (PM_2.5), <10 µm (PM₁₀)], and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and total and cause-specific mortality, accounting for road traffic noise.

METHODS

We used data on 24,541 females (age > 44 years) from the Danish Nurse Cohort, who were recruited in 1993 or 1999, and linked to the Danish Causes of Death Register for follow-up on date of death and its cause, until the end of 2013. Annual mean concentrations of PM_2.5, PM_10, and NO₂ at the participants' residences since 1990 were estimated using the Danish DEHM/UBM/AirGIS dispersion model, and annual mean road traffic noise levels (L_den) were estimated using the Nord2000 model. We examined associations between the three-year running mean of PM_2.5, PM₁₀, and NO₂ with total and cause-specific mortality by using time-varying Cox Regression models, adjusting for individual characteristics and residential road traffic noise.

RESULTS

During the study period, 3,708 nurses died: 843 from cardiovascular disease (CVD), 310 from respiratory disease (RD), and 64 from diabetes. In the fully adjusted models, including road traffic noise, we detected associations of three-year running mean of PM_2.5 with total (hazard ratio; 95% confidence interval: 1.06; 1.01-1.11), CVD (1.14; 1.03-1.26), and diabetes mortality (1.41; 1.05-1.90), per interquartile range of 4.39 μg/m³. In a subset of the cohort exposed to PM_2.5 < 20 µg/m³, we found even stronger association with total (1.19; 1.11-1.27), CVD (1.27; 1.01-1.46), RD (1.27; 1.00-1.60), and diabetes mortality (1.44; 0.83-2.48). We found similar associations with PM₁₀ and none with NO₂. All associations were robust to adjustment for road traffic noise.

DISCUSSION

Long-term exposure to low-levels of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ is associated with total mortality, and mortality from CVD, RD, and diabetes. Associations were even stronger at the PM_2.5 levels below EU limit values and were independent of road traffic noise.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and stroke incidence: A Danish Nurse cohort study

Ambient air pollution has been linked to stroke, but few studies have examined in detail stroke subtypes and confounding by road traffic noise, which was recently associated with stroke. Here we examined the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and incidence of stroke (overall, ischemic, hemorrhagic), adjusting for road traffic noise. In a nationwide Danish Nurse Cohort consisting of 23,423 nurses, recruited in 1993 or 1999, we identified 1,078 incident cases of stroke (944 ischemic and 134 hemorrhagic) up to December 31, 2014, defined as first-ever hospital contact. The full residential address histories since 1970 were obtained for each participant and the annual means of air pollutants (particulate matter with diameter < 2.5 µm and < 10 µm (PM_2.5 and PM₁₀), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), nitrogen oxides (NOx)) and road traffic noise were determined using validated models. Time-varying Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) (95% confidence intervals (CI)) for the associations of one-, three, and 23-year running mean of air pollutants with stroke adjusting for potential confounders and noise. In fully adjusted models, the HRs (95% CI) per interquartile range increase in one-year running mean of PM_2.5 and overall, ischemic, and hemorrhagic stroke were 1.12 (1.01-1.25), 1.13 (1.01-1.26), and 1.07 (0.80-1.44), respectively, and remained unchanged after adjustment for noise. Long-term exposure to ambient PM_2.5 was associated with the risk of stroke independent of road traffic noise.

Inequality, Familial Aggregation, and Risk Prediction of Caries in Siblings

INTRODUCTION

Social and family conditions are likely of great importance to dental health; however, limited evidence of familial aggregation of caries among adolescent siblings exists. Moreover, social and family-level factors have never been evaluated as isolated caries predictors at the individual level.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were to evaluate socioeconomic patterning of caries among siblings, assess sibling-specific aggregation of caries within families, and examine if such aggregation differed by parental socioeconomic position (SEP). We also evaluated the discriminant ability of sibling caries, SEP, and other social and familial factors in predicting caries in cosiblings.

METHODS

This nationwide register-based study included all 15-y-olds in Denmark in 2003 (index siblings) and their biological siblings born within ±3 y (cosiblings). Clinical and sociodemographic data for each subject were compiled from Danish national dental, social, and population registers. Caries was measured by the decayed, missing, and filled tooth surfaces (DMFS) index. Predictors included SEP (parental education, income, and occupational social class), gender, birth order, immigration status, and household type. Adjusted SEP-caries associations were estimated using negative binomial regression. Familial aggregation was evaluated using adjusted pairwise odds ratios from alternating logistic regressions. Caries prediction was based on classification and regression tree (CART) analyses.

RESULTS

The study included 23,847 sibling pairs (n = 47,694). Socioeconomic patterning of caries was similar among the index and cosiblings with significant graded SEP-caries associations. Significant sibling-specific aggregation of caries was observed; cosiblings of caries-affected index siblings had odds of having caries 3.9 times (95% confidence interval: 3.65-4.18) as high as that of cosiblings with caries-free index siblings. This sibling similarity was stronger in socioeconomically disadvantaged families (adjusted pairwise odds ratios: 3.08-5.47). CART revealed index sibling caries as the single most important caries predictor, with caries predicted in ≥84% of cosiblings of adolescents with ≥3 carious tooth surfaces.

CONCLUSIONS

Caries in a sibling should prompt preventive family-based approaches targeting cosiblings.

KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER STATEMENT

This study revealed significant socioeconomic patterning of caries in adolescent siblings. Prediction modeling indicated that the single most important caries predictor among cosiblings was index sibling caries. Information on sibling caries level should be routinely combined with clinical evaluation to identify children at risk. Moreover, information on social and family conditions should be used to target prevention and health promotion at the school or municipal level. These approaches could possibly contribute to reducing the existing caries inequalities.

Sex of the first-born and obstetric complications in the subsequent birth. A study of 2.3 million second births from Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden

INTRODUCTION

Studies have shown associations between a first-born boy and increased risks of pregnancy loss, stillbirth, decreased birthweight, and preterm birth in subsequent pregnancies, but with limited precision.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We examined associations between sex of the first-born and obstetric complications in second births. We calculated the relative risks (RR)s of preeclampsia/eclampsia, placental abruption, stillbirth, and preterm birth in approximately 2.3 million second births comparing women with a preceding first-born boy to those with a first-born girl using the Medical Birth Registries of Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden 1980-2008.

RESULTS

In second births following a first-born boy rather than a girl, the RR was 4% higher for preeclampsia/eclampsia (RR = 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.06), 9% higher for placental abruption (RR = 1.09, 95% CI 1.05-1.13), 9% higher for stillbirth (RR = 1.09, 95% CI 1.04-1.14), and 8% higher for preterm birth (RR = 1.08, 95% CI 1.07-1.09). The population attributable risks ranged from 2% to 4.5%.

CONCLUSIONS

Male sex of the first-born is associated with small increases in risks of obstetric complications in the second birth. Exploration of the underlying mechanisms is needed to increase our knowledge and treatment options for these serious obstetric complications.

Preterm birth and selection in utero among males following the November 2015 Paris attacks

Background

On 13 November 2015, coordinated terrorist attacks swept through Paris. This large stressor, like earlier terrorist attacks in the USA, may have perturbed the health of pregnant women. We test whether the attacks preceded an increase in the risk of preterm parturition among live-born males as well as excess male loss in utero. We focused on males on the basis of previous findings of elevated male frailty following population stressors.

Methods

We examined live births in the Paris region (n = 1 049 057) over 70 months, from January 2011 to October 2016. Interrupted time-series methods identified and removed serial correlation in the monthly risk of preterm birth; these methods employed non-linear least-squares estimation. We also repeated analyses using month of conception, and performed sensitivity tests among females as well as among male births outside Paris.

Results

Males exhibited an elevated incidence of preterm birth in November 2015 and January 2016 [risk difference for November 2015 = 0.006, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.0002—0.012; risk difference for January 2016 = 0.010, 95% CI: 0.004—0.016], which equates to an 11% increase in the count of preterm births. Females, as well as males born outside Paris, showed no change in preterm delivery. The sex ratio also fell below expected values in December 2015, January 2016 and February 2016.

Conclusions

Among males, more preterm births, but fewer live births, occurred after the November 2015 Paris attacks. Future examinations of perinatal health responses to unexpected stressors may benefit from sex-specific analyses.

Operative technique at caesarean delivery and risk of complete uterine rupture in a subsequent trial of labour at term. A registry case-control study

Objective

To estimate the relation of single-layer closure at previous caesarean delivery, and other pre-labour and intra-partum risk factors for complete uterine rupture in trial of vaginal birth after a caesarean (TOLAC) at term.

Study design

Population-based case-control study. We identified all women (n = 39 742) recorded in the Danish Medical Birth Registry (DMBR) during a 12-year period (1997–2008) with a singleton pregnancy at term and TOLAC. Among these, all women with a complete uterine rupture were identified (cases). Information from the registry was validated against medical records. Controls were selected in the DMBR as the following two births with TOLAC at term and no uterine rupture. Detailed information from cases and controls was collected from manual review of medical records. Main outcome measure was complete uterine rupture during TOLAC at term.

Results

Upon validation, 175 cases and 272 controls met the above criteria. After adjustment for possible confounding factors there was no association between single layer closure and uterine rupture (aOR 1.38, CI: 0.88–2.17). Significant risk factors were: Induction with an unfavourable cervix (aOR 2.10 CI: 1.19–3.71), epidural (aOR 2.17 CI 1.31–3.57), augmentation by oxytocin for more than one hour (aOR 2.03 CI: 1.20–3.44), and birth weight ≥ 4000g (aOR 2.65 CI 1.05–6.64). Previous vaginal delivery (aOR 0.41 CI: 0.25–0.68) and inter-delivery interval of more than 24 months (aOR 0.38 CI: 0.18–0.78) reduced the risk of uterine rupture.

Conclusion

Single-layer uterine closure did not remain significantly associated to uterine rupture during TOLAC at term after adjustment for confounding factors. Induction of labour with an unfavourable cervix, birth weight ≥ 4000g and indicators of prolonged labour were all major risk factors for uterine rupture.

Criterion validity of the Physical Activity Scale (PAS2) in Danish adults

BACKGROUND

The Physical Activity Scale (PAS2) was developed to measure physical activity (PA) during work, transportation and leisure time, in the Danish adult population. The objective of this study was to assess the criterion validity of PAS2 against a combined accelerometer and heart rate monitor in Danish adults and to investigate if the criterion validity differed by socio-demographic factors and body mass index.

METHOD

A total of 330 Danish adults (mean age = 46.7 years, 38.5% men) participating in the Health2008 study completed the PAS2 questionnaire and wore a combined accelerometer and heart rate sensor for seven days. Average daily estimates from PAS2 were categorised into time spent in sedentary behaviour, light PA, moderate PA and vigorous PA and were compared to the objective measures.

RESULTS

PAS2 accounted for 19.5 hours/day on average. Time spent in sedentary behaviour, light and moderate-intensity PA was weakly correlated with objective data (polychoric correlation coefficients (PCC): 0.18-0.20), whereas vigorous intensity PA was moderately correlated (PCC: 0.54, p = 0.04). Mean bias was -2.3 hours/day (95% limits of agreement (LoA): -9.04 to 4.34) for sedentary behaviour, 1.68 hours/day (LoA: 8.02 to -4.62) for light activity, 0.55 hours/day (LoA: 3.37 to -2.26) for moderate activity and 0.12 hours/day (LoA: 0.57 to 0.33) for vigorous activity. Criterion validity was lower in women, in participants who were above 40 years, overweight, had short education and were unemployed.

CONCLUSIONS

PAS2 overestimated time spent on light, moderate and vigorous intensity PA and underestimated time spent on sedentary behaviour. Validity differed by key socio-demographic characteristics.

Erratum to: Associations between adherence, depressive symptoms and health-related quality of life in young adults with cystic fibrosis

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1186/s40064-016-2862-5.].

The importance of early life family factors in the association between cardiovascular risk factors and early cardiovascular mortality

Objective

To explore the importance of early life factors shared by siblings, such as parental socioeconomic position, parental practices, housing and neighbourhood, for the association between cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and mortality from CVD, ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease.

Methods

Norwegian health surveys (1974–2003) were linked with data from the Norwegian Family Based Life Course Study and the Cause of Death Registry. Participants with at least one full sibling among survey participants (n=2 71 643) were included. Data on CVD risk factors, body mass index (BMI), height, systolic blood pressure (SBP) and total cholesterol (TC) were stratified into ‘low’, ‘medium’ and ‘high’ risk, and smoking to ‘daily smoking’ and ‘not daily smoking’.

Results

Mean age of participants was 41 years, mean follow-up time was 19 years and during follow-up 2512 died from CVD. For each category of increased risk factor level, the per step HR of CVD mortality was increased by 1.91 (95% CI 1.78 to 2.05) for SBP, 1.67 (1.58 to 1.76) for TC, 1.44 (1.36 to 1.53) for BMI, 1.26 (1.18 to 1.35) for height and 2.89 (2.66 to 3.14) for smoking. In analyses where each sibship (groups of full siblings) had a group-specific baseline hazard, these associations were attenuated to 1.74, 1.51, 1.29, 1.18 and 2.63, respectively. The associations between risk factors and IHD mortality followed the same pattern.

Conclusion

Early life family factors explained a small part of the association between risk factors and mortality from CVD and IHD in a relatively young sample.

Offspring sex and parental health and mortality

Increased mortality has been observed in mothers and fathers with male offspring but little is known regarding specific diseases. In a register linkage we linked women born 1925–1954 having survived to age 50 (n = 661,031) to offspring and fathers (n = 691,124). Three approaches were used: 1) number of total boy and girl offspring, 2) sex of the first and second offspring and 3) proportion of boys to total number of offspring. A sub-cohort (n = 50,736 mothers, n = 44,794 fathers) from survey data was analysed for risk factors. Mothers had increased risk of total and cardiovascular mortality that was consistent across approaches: cardiovascular mortality of 1.07 (95% CI: 1.03–1.11) per boy (approach 2), 1.04 (1.01–1.07) if the first offspring was a boy, and 1.06 (1.01–1.10) if the first two offspring were boys (approach 3). We found that sex of offspring was not associated with total or cardiovascular mortality in fathers. For other diseases or risk factors no robust associations were seen in mothers or fathers. Increased cardiovascular risk in mothers having male offspring suggests a maternal disease specific mechanism. The lack of consistent associations on measured risk factors could suggest other biological pathways than those studied play a role in generating this additional cardiovascular risk.

Social and demographic drivers of trend and seasonality in elective abortions in Denmark

BACKGROUND

Elective abortions show a secular decline in high income countries. That general pattern, however, may mask meaningful differences-and a potentially rising trend-among age, income, and other racial/ethnic groups. We explore these differences in Denmark, a high-income, low-fertility country with excellent data on terminations and births.

METHODS

We examined monthly elective abortions (n = 225,287) from 1995 to 2009, by maternal age, parity, income level and mother's country of origin. We applied time-series methods to live births as well as spontaneous and elective abortions to approximate the denominator of pregnancies at risk of elective abortion. We used linear regression methods to identify trend and seasonal patterns.

RESULTS

Despite an overall declining trend, teenage women show a rising proportion of pregnancies that end in an elective termination (56% to 67%, 1995 to 2009). Non-Western immigrant women also show a slight increase in incidence. Heightened economic disadvantage among non-Western immigrant women does not account for this rise. Elective abortions also show a sustained "summer peak" in June, July and August. Low-income women show the most pronounced summer peak.

CONCLUSIONS

Identification of the causes of the increase over time in elective abortion among young women, and separately among non-Western immigrant women, represents key areas of further inquiry. The unexpected increase over time in elective abortions among teens and non-Western immigrants in Denmark may signal important social and cultural impediments to contraception. The summer peak in abortions among low-income women, moreover, conflicts with the conventional assumption that the social and demographic composition of mothers who electively end their pregnancy remains stable within a calendar year.

Family of origin and educational inequalities in mortality: Results from 1.7 million Swedish siblings

Circumstances in the family of origin have short- and long-term consequences for people's health. Family background also influences educational achievements - achievements that are clearly linked to various health outcomes. Utilizing population register data, we compared Swedish siblings with different levels of education (1,732,119 individuals within 662,095 sibships) born between 1934 and 1959 and followed their death records until the end of 2012 (167,932 deaths). The educational gradient in all-cause mortality was lower within sibships than in the population as a whole, an attenuation that was strongest at younger ages (< 50 years of age) and for those with a working class or farmer background. There was substantial variation across different causes of death with clear reductions in educational inequalities in, e.g., lung cancer and diabetes, when introducing shared family factors, which may indicate that part of the association can be ascribed to circumstances that siblings have in common. In contrast, educational inequalities in suicide and, for women, other mental disorders increased when adjusting for factors shared by siblings. The vast variation in the role of childhood conditions for the education-mortality association may help us to further understand the interplay between family background, education, and mortality. The increase in the education gradient in suicide when siblings are compared may point towards individually oriented explanations ('non-shared environment'), perhaps particularly in mental disorders, while shared family factors primarily seem to play a more important role in diseases in which health behaviors are most significant.

Shape of the association between income and mortality: a cohort study of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden in 1995 and 2003

OBJECTIVES

Prior work has examined the shape of the income-mortality association, but work has not compared gradients between countries. In this study, we focus on changes over time in the shape of income-mortality gradients for 4 Nordic countries during a period of rising income inequality. Context and time differentials in shape imply that the relationship between income and mortality is not fixed.

SETTING

Population-based cohort study of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden.

PARTICIPANTS

We collected data on individuals aged 25 or more in 1995 (n=12.98 million individuals, 0.84 million deaths) and 2003 (n=13.08 million individuals, 0.90 million deaths). We then examined the household size equivalised disposable income at the baseline year in relation to the rate of mortality in the following 5 years.

RESULTS

A steep income gradient in mortality in men and women across all age groups except the oldest old in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. From the 1990s to 2000s mortality dropped, but generally more so in the upper part of the income distribution than in the lower part. As a consequence, the shape of the income gradient in mortality changed. The shift in the shape of the association was similar in all 4 countries.

CONCLUSIONS

A non-linear gradient exists between income and mortality in most cases and because of a more rapid mortality decline among those with high income the income gradient has become steeper over time.

Type 1 diabetes, quality of life, occupational status and education level - A comparative population-based study

AIM

Type 1 diabetes requires extensive self-management to avoid complications and may have negative effects on the everyday life of people with the disease. The aim of this study was to compare adults with type 1 diabetes to the general population in terms of health-related quality of life, occupational status (level of employment, working hours and sick leave) and education level.

METHODS

2415 adults (aged 18-98years) with type 1 diabetes were compared to 48,511 adults (aged 18-103years) from the general population. Data were obtained from two cross-sectional surveys conducted in 2010 and 2011 of adults living or treated in the Capital Region in Denmark. Differences between adults with type 1 diabetes and the general population were standardised for age and sex and analyzed using linear probability models and negative binomial regression. Differences were further analyzed in subgroups.

RESULTS

Compared to the general population, adults with type 1 diabetes experienced lower health-related quality of life, were more frequently unemployed, had more sick leave per year and were slightly better educated. Differences in health-related quality of life and employment increased with age and were larger among women, as compared to men. No significant differences were found with regard to working hours.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that type 1 diabetes is associated with lower health-related quality of life, higher unemployment and additional sick leave. The negative association with type 1 diabetes is more pronounced in women and older adults.

Educational differences in cardiovascular mortality: The role of shared family factors and cardiovascular risk factors

AIMS

To explore the confounding effects of early family factors shared by siblings and cardiovascular risk factors in midlife on the educational differences in mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD).

METHODS

Data from national and regional health surveys in Norway (1974-2003) were linked with data from the Norwegian Family Based Life Course Study, the National Educational Registry and the Cause of Death Registry. The study population consisted of participants with at least one full sibling among the health survey participants ( n=271,310). Data were available on CVD risk factors, including weight, height, blood pressure, total cholesterol and smoking.

RESULTS

The hazards ratio (HR) of CVD mortality was 3.44 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.98-3.96) in the lowest educational group relative to the highest. The HRs were little altered in the within-sibship analyses. Adjusted for risk factors, the HR for CVD mortality in the cohort analyses was 2.05 (CI 1.77-2.37) in the lowest educational group relative to the highest. The respective HR in the within-sibship analyses was 2.46 (CI 1.48-2.24).

CONCLUSIONS

Using a sibling design, we did not find that the association between education and CVD mortality was confounded by early life factors shared by siblings, but it was explained to a large extent by CVD risk factors. These results suggest that reducing levels of CVD risk factors could have the greatest effect on mortality in less well-educated people.

Associations between adherence, depressive symptoms and health-related quality of life in young adults with cystic fibrosis

Background

Cystic fibrosis (CF) is a life shortening disease, however prognosis has improved and the adult population is growing. Most adults with cystic fibrosis live independent lives and balance the demands of work and family life with a significant treatment burden. The aim of this study was to examine the relationships among treatment adherence, symptoms of depression and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in a population of young adults with CF.

Methods

We administered three standardized questionnaires to 67 patients with CF aged 18–30 years; Morisky Medication Adherence Scale, Major Depression Inventory, and Cystic Fibrosis Questionnaire-Revised.

Results

There was a response rate of 77 % and a majority of the young adults (84 %) were employed or in an education program. Most participants (74 %) reported low adherence to medications. One third (32.8 %) of the participants reported symptoms of depression. HRQoL scores were especially low on Vitality and Treatment Burden, and symptoms of depression were associated with low HRQoL scores (p < 0.01) with medium to large deficits across on all HRQoL domains (Cohen’s d 0.60–1.72) except for the domain treatment burden. High depression symptom scores were associated with low adherence (r = −0.412, p < 0.001).

Conclusions

Despite improved physical health, many patients with CF report poor adherence, as well as impaired mental wellbeing and HRQoL. Thus, more attention to mental health issues is needed.

Spontaneous Pregnancy Loss in Denmark Following Economic Downturns

An estimated 11%-20% of clinically recognized pregnancies result in spontaneous abortion. The literature finds elevated risk of spontaneous abortion among women who report adverse financial life events. This work suggests that, at the population level, national economic decline-an ambient and plausibly unexpected stressor-will precede an increase in spontaneous abortion. We tested this hypothesis using high-quality information on pregnancy and spontaneous loss for all women in Denmark. We applied time-series methods to monthly counts of clinically detected spontaneous abortions (n = 157,449) and the unemployment rate in Denmark beginning in January 1995 and ending in December 2009. Our statistical methods controlled for temporal patterns in spontaneous abortion (e.g., seasonality, trend) and changes in the population of pregnancies at risk of loss. Unexpected increases in the unemployment rate preceded by 1 month a rise in the number of spontaneous abortions (β = 33.19 losses/month, 95% confidence interval: 8.71, 57.67). An attendant analysis that used consumption of durable household goods as an indicator of financial insecurity supported the inference from our main test. Changes over time in elective abortions and in the cohort composition of high-risk pregnancies did not account for results. It appears that in Denmark, ambient stressors as common as increasing unemployment may precede a population-level increase in spontaneous abortion.

Shared risk aversion in spontaneous and induced abortion

STUDY QUESTION

Does the incidence of spontaneous abortion correlate positively over conception cohorts with the incidence of non-clinically indicated induced abortion as predicted by shared risk aversion?

SUMMARY ANSWER

We find that the number of spontaneous and non-clinically indicated induced abortions correlates in conception cohorts, suggesting that risk aversion affects both the conscious and non-conscious mechanisms that control parturition.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Much literature speculates that natural selection conserved risk aversion because the trait enhanced Darwinian fitness. Risk aversion, moreover, supposedly influences all decisions including those that individuals can and cannot report making. We argue that these circumstances, if real, would manifest in conscious and non-conscious decisions to invest in prospective offspring, and therefore affect incidence of induced and spontaneous abortion over time.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

Using data from Denmark, we test the hypothesis that monthly conception cohorts yielding unexpectedly many non-clinically indicated induced abortions also yield unexpectedly many spontaneous abortions. The 180 month test period (January 1995 through December 2009), yielded 1 351 800 gestations including 156 780 spontaneous as well as 233 280 induced abortions 9100 of which were clinically indicated.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

We use Box-Jenkins transfer functions to adjust the incidence of spontaneous and non-clinically indicated induced abortions for autocorrelation (including seasonality), cohort size, and fetal as well as gestational anomalies over the 180-month test period. We use cross-correlation to test our hypothesized association.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

We find a positive association between spontaneous and non-clinically indicated induced abortions. This suggests, consistent with our theory, that mothers of conception cohorts that yielded more spontaneous abortions than expected opted more frequently than expected for non-clinically indicated induced abortion.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Limitations of our work include that even the world's best registration system will not capture all spontaneous abortions and that results may not generalize beyond Denmark.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Our findings imply that abortion, intentional or 'spontaneous,' follows from a woman's estimate, made consciously or otherwise, of the costs and benefits of extending gestation given characteristics of the prospective offspring, likely environmental circumstances at birth, and maternal resources.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS

The Robert Wood Johnson Health and Society Scholars Program funded the research described in this manuscript. None of the authors has any conflict of interest to declare.

Uterine rupture without previous caesarean delivery: a population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To determine incidence and patient characteristics of women with uterine rupture during singleton births at term without a previous caesarean delivery.

STUDY DESIGN

Population based cohort study. Women with term singleton birth, no record of previous caesarean delivery and planned vaginal delivery (n=611,803) were identified in the Danish Medical Birth Registry (1997-2008). Medical records from women recorded with uterine rupture during labour were reviewed to ascertain events of complete uterine rupture. Relative Risk (RR) and adjusted Relative Risk Ratio (aRR) of complete uterine rupture with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were ascertained according to characteristics of the women and of the delivery.

RESULTS

We identified 20 cases with complete uterine rupture. The incidence of complete uterine rupture among women without previous caesarean delivery was about 3.3/100,000 deliveries. Multiparity (RR 8.99 (95% CI 1.86-43.29)), induction of labour (RR 3.26 (95% CI 1.24-8.57)), epidural analgesia (RR 10.78 (95% CI 4.25-27.39)), and augmentation by oxytocin (RR 9.50 (95% CI 3.15-28.63)) were associated with uterine rupture. Induction of labour was not significantly related to uterine rupture when adjusted for parity, epidural analgesia and augmentation by oxytocin.

CONCLUSION

Although uterine rupture is rare, its association with epidural analgesia and augmentation of labour with oxytocin in multipara should be considered. Thus, vigilance should be exercised when labour is obstructed and there is need for epidural analgesia and/or augmentation by oxytocin in multiparous women. Due to the rare occurrence of uterine rupture caution should be exerted when interpreting the findings of this study.